CRM - (Part 2) - Nguyen Le
CRM - (Part 2) - Nguyen Le
Logistic Regression
By inputting values for the predictor variables for each new customer,
the logistic model will yield a predicted probability
• In linear regression, the effect of one unit change in the independent variable on the dependent
• For logistic regression the effect of a one-unit increase in the predictor variable varies along an s-
p
Step 1: If p represents the probability of an event occurring, take the ratio 1− p
Since p is a positive quantity less than 1, the range of this expression is 0 to infinity
p
Step2: Take the logarithm of this ratio: log
1 − p
This transformation allows the range of values for this expression to lie between negative
infinity and positive infinity
40.00%
35.18%
35.00%
30.00%
Response Rate
25.00% 22.52%
19.96%
20.00%
15.00%
11.08%
8.98%
10.00%
6.74%
4.42%
5.00% 2.26% 1.78%
0.90%
0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deciles
The Decile analysis distributes customers into ten equal size groups
For a model that V.performs well,
Kumar, W. Reinartz, customers
Customer inManagement,
Relationship the firstSpringer
decile exhibit
Texts in Business the highest
response rate
Lift Analysis
Lift Analysis
3.50
3.09
3.00
2.50
1.98
2.00 1.75
Lift
1.50
0.97
1.00 0.79
0.59
0.39
0.50 0.20 0.16 0.08
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deciles
10
7
Cumulative Lift
6
5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
De cile
The cumulative lifts for the model reveal what proportion of responders we can expect to gain from targeting a
specific percent of customers using the model
V. Kumar, W. Reinartz, Customer Relationship Management, Springer Texts in Business
Choosing the top 30 % of the customers from the top three deciles will obtain 68% of
Lift Performance Comparison
Comparison of Models
10
9
8
7
Cumulative Lift
6 Logistic
Past Customer Value
5
RFM
4 No Model
3
2
1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deciles
Data Mining
Topics
• Reducing churn with the help of predictive models, which enable early
identification of those customers likely to stop doing business with the company
• Increasing customer profitability by identifying customers with a high growth
potential
• Reducing marketing costs by more selective targeting
Overview of the Data Mining Process
• Business group:
▪ Involved in checking the plausibility and soundness
of the solution in business terms
▪ Takes the lead in deploying the new insights into
corporate action such as a call center or direct mail
campaign
Manipulations to Data Set
• Column manipulations
▪ Transformation
▪ Derivation
▪ Elimination
• Row manipulations
▪ Aggregation
▪ Change detection
▪ Missing value detection
▪ Outlier detection
Data Preparation
For modeling, incoming data is sampled and split into various streams as:
• Define the details of project execution specifying the start and delivery dates
of the data mining process, and the responsible resources for each task
• Define the chosen experimental setup for the campaign
• Define a cost/revenue matrix describing how the business mechanics will work in the supported
campaign and how it will impact the data mining process
• Establish the criteria for evaluating the success of the campaign
• Find a benchmark to compare against results obtained in the past for the
same or similar campaign setups using traditional targeting methods, and not predictive models
Define Business Objectives (contd.)
• Define the set of business or selection rules for the campaign (e.g.: , the customers that
should be excluded from or included in the target groups)
• Define the details of project execution specifying the start and delivery dates
of the data mining process, and the responsible resources for each task
• Define the chosen experimental setup for the campaign
• Define a cost/revenue matrix describing how the business mechanics will work in the
supported campaign and how it will impact the data mining process
• Establish the criteria for evaluating the success of the campaign
• Find a benchmark to compare against results obtained in the past for the
same or similar campaign setups using traditional targeting methods, and not predictive
models
Cost/Revenue Matrix
Assuming average cost per call is $5, each positive responder (purchaser) will generate additional cost due to
-administration work required to register him as a new customer
-the cost of the delivered phone handset (say, $100)
Customers, who respond positively will, generate average revenue of $1000 per year
Get Raw Data
• Assess and understand limitations of data resulting from its inherent quality (good or
bad) aspects
• Create an analytical database as the basis for subsequent analyses
• Carry out preliminary data quality assessment
• To assure an acceptable level of quality of the delivered data
• To ensure that the data mining team has a clear understanding of how to interpret the data in business
terms
• Data miners have to carry out some basic data interpretation and aggregation exercises
Identify Relevant Predictive Variables
• The rules (or linear/non-linear analytical models) are built based on a training set
• These rules are then applied to a new dataset for generating the answers needed for the campaign
Guidelines:
• Distinguish between different types of predictive models obtained through different modeling paradigms:
supervised and un-supervised modeling
• Find the right relationships between variables describing the customers to predict their respective group
membership likelihood: purchaser or non-purchaser, referred to as scoring (e.g. between 0 and 1)
Predicted
Totals
1 0
1 726 56 782
Observed
0 173 504 677
• Useful to preserve especially if the same model is used to score different data sets obtained at
different times
Step 3: Learn
• Referred to as “closing the loop”
• Obtain the facts describing performance of data mining project and
business impact
• Obtained by monitoring campaign performance while it is running and
from final campaign performance analysis after the campaign has ended
• Detect when a model has to be re-trained
Summary
• Data Mining can assist in selecting the right target customers or in identifying previously unknown
customers with similar behavior and needs
• A good target list is likely to increase purchase rates, and have a positive impact on revenue
• In the context of CRM, the individual customer is often the central object analyzed by means of data
mining methods
• A complete data mining process comprises assessing and specifying the business objectives, data
sourcing, transformation and creation of analytical variables, and building analytical models using
techniques such as logistic regression and neural networks, scoring customers and obtaining feedback
from the field
• Learning and refining the data mining process is the key to success
V. Kumar, W. Reinartz, Customer Relationship Management, Springer Texts in Business
Homework
• Reading book “Kumar, V., &
Reinartz, W. (2018). Customer
Relationship Management, Concept,
Strategy, and Tools, 3rd Edition.
Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Using Databases
Topics
Types of databases
Types of databases:
▪ Customer database
▪ Prospect database
▪ Cluster database
▪ Enhancement database
Customer Database
▪ Data from active and inactive customers
InfoBaseR eProducts – from Acxiom provides the user companies with the email addresses of
their customers
▪ Reduced direct mail costs and therefore increased Net Marketing Contribution
Case: Email Marketing company Quris helped Blockbuster create its email newsletter
▪ Newsletter marketed Blockbuster’s new movies (on DVD/VHS) and games to its
customers via email which also included a bar-coded coupon for customers to
print and redeem
▪ Results: The total ROI for the program was 96% higher than the ROI for direct mail;
for customers receiving electronic coupons, it was 144% higher
Prospect Database
Non-customers that have profiles that are similar to the profiles of existing
customers
Segments prospects and positions the company’s differentiated products
to the prospects’ specific needs
Examples of some Prospect databases used in the industry:
▪ The InfoBaseR list: Offers a collection of US consumer data available in
one source for list rentals covering 111 million households and 176 million
individuals
▪ Harris Selectory Online: A prospect database from D&B which helps
companies find new customers allowing companies to:
▪ Qualify leads that they are developing
▪ Contact the decision-maker best suited to hear their sales pitch
▪ Research potential opportunities
Cluster Database
Clusters defined based on geographic reference groups,
affinity groups, and lifestyle reference groups
Depending on the membership of prospective customers to specific clusters, firms can customize their
marketing communications
▪ S1 (Elite Suburbs) –5 clusters with the nation’s most affluent social people
▪ C1 (City Society) – 3 clusters making the upper crust of America’s ‘second’ and ‘satellite’ cities
▪ T1 (Landed Gentry) –clusters comprise of multi-income families having school age kids and are
headed by well-educated executives and professionals
CRM at Work: Globe and Mail
- Example of cluster database
Globe and Mail, Canadian national newspaper
▪ Created a marketing database of prospective subscribers
▪ Enhanced existing customer’s data with Canadian cluster
codes and demographic data, provided by Compusearch
▪ Using cluster data, targeted customers in the prospect
database: sent offers to prospective customers whose
demographics matched that of current customers
▪ Used a predictive dialing method that doubled their
prospective customer contacts per hour
Enhancement Database
Used to transfer additional information on customers and prospects
Enhancements may include demographic and psychographic data, transaction history, changes
in address, changes in income levels, privacy status, new product categories bought recently
▪ InfoBaseR provides a large collection of U.S customer information like telephone & address
data, mailing lists including hotline files, e-mail data
▪ The InfoBaseR Enhanced provides the ability to append the latest demographics, socio-
economic and lifestyle data to your existing in-house customer database
▪ A consumer goods company can use this data to better target their advertising and marketing
campaigns, expand brand reach, improve acquisition and retention rates, increase profitability
Categorization Based on The Nature of Underlying
Marketing Activities
Passive marketing database
▪ A mailing list that passively stores information about acquired
customers
▪ Future marketing efforts target the same customers in the list
Customer list
Customer list
Hierarchical database
Inverted database
Relational database
Hierarchical Database
Data from active and inactive customers are important to ensure efficient
marketing function
Designing Loyalty
Programs
Topics Discussed
❑ Basket size
❑ Purchase frequency acceleration
❑ Price sensitivity
❑ Share of category requirements
(SCR) or share of wallet Retention
❑ Lifetime duration
2.3 Effectiveness Profits
Effectiveness profits refer to the medium- to longterm profit
consequences realized through the development of better
knowledge about customer preferences
Interest in loyalty programs exploded in the late 1990s. Building mainly on the
premise that it is cheaper to market to existing customers than to acquire new
ones, firms across a multitude of industries raced to implement some form of
loyalty schemes. Thus the growth in LP usage has been staggering
❑ Example:
Frequent buyer programs:
Star Alliance Frequent Flyer Program
Payback:
4. Problems with Loyalty Programs
Regarding the composition and the choice of dimensions to include in their LP design, as
well as the corresponding weights assigned to each dimension. In this sense, we
characterize LPs along the following key dimensions, which must be defined when
designing a program :
❑ Reward structure:
• Hard versus soft rewards
• Product proposition support (choice of
rewards)
• Aspirational value of reward
• Rate of rewards
• Timing of rewards
• Rewards based on specific criteria
5. Design Characteristics of Loyalty Programs
❑ Participation requirements:
• Voluntary or automatic enrollment
• Open versus closed LP
• Automatic or manual point accumulation
❑ Payment function
❑ Sponsorship(existence of partner network, network
externalities):
• Single versus multiform LP
• Within- versus across-sector LP
• Ownership (focal firm versus other firm)
6.1 Reward Structure
1
CHAPTER 10 2
Designing
Loyalty
Programs
Topics 3
1. What Is Loyalty? Behavioral
Versus Attitudinal Loyalty
2. What Is a Loyalty Program?
Definition and Key
Objectives?
3. Design Characteristics
of Loyalty Programs
4. Drivers of Loyalty Program
Effectiveness
5. The Seven-Point Checklist
for Successful LP Design
and Implementation
1. What Is Loyalty?
Behavioral Versus Attitudinal Loyalty 4
An LP comprises a marketing
process that generates rewards
for customers, based on their
repeat purchases or
engagement with the brand.
Key objectives
The key objectives of
introducing LPs consist
of four categories :
1) Building true
(attitudinal and
behavioral) loyalty
2) Efficiency profits
3) Effectiveness profits
4) Value alignment
8
The key
objectives of
introducing LPs
consist of four
categories
2.1 Building True Loyalty
9
❑ Basket size
❑ Purchase frequency
acceleration
❑ Price sensitivity
❑ Share of category
requirements (SCR) or
share of wallet
Retention
❑ Lifetime duration
2.3 Effectiveness Profits 11
01 Payment Function
Reward Mechanism 04
Participation
03 06
Cost and Revenue of LPs
Requirements
3.1 Reward Structure
14
❑ Reward structure:
• Hard versus soft rewards
• Product proposition support (choice of rewards)
• Aspirational value of reward
• Rate of rewards
• Timing of rewards
• Rewards based on specific criteria
3.2 Participation Requirements
16
18
3.5 Cost and Revenues of LP
19
1. LP design characteristics
2. Customer characteristics
3. Achieving a Competitive Advantage
4.1 Loyalty Program Design Characteristics
21
❑ Reward structure
❑ Participation requirements
❑ Payment function
❑ Sponsorship (existence of partner network,
network externalities)
❑ Cost and revenues
4. 2 Customer Characteristics
22
a Competitive
Advantage
EXERCISES
case study
P. 198
27
CRM
Impact of CRM on
Marketing Channels
• Sales volume
The quantitative criteria
might include:
• Market share
• Revenues/contribution/profit
• Image
The quantitative criteria • Reference potential
might include: • Technology potential and know-how
• Interorganizational and cultural fit
Example of Selection Criteria
Design Elements of the KAM Program
Advancement of the KAM Program
Applications of CRM
in B2B and B2C Scenarios
The value of a lost customer depends upon whether the customer defects to a
competing firm or dis adopt the product category
Defection: The firm loses direct sales that customer would have brought
in
Dis adoption: Customer stops purchasing from that product category
Affects the long term profitability by:
❑The loss of direct sales
❑ Indirect effects of word of mouth, imitation, and other social effects