Research paper structure:

1. Title
2. Abstract
3. Introduction
4. Literature Review
5. Research Objectives/Questions
6. Hypothesis/Thesis Statement
7. Methodology
8. Data Analysis
9. Results/Findings
10. Discussion
11. Conclusion
12. References/Bibliography

Title:
•The Arab Spring and Its Lasting Impact on Regional Geopolitics: A Case Study
of Power Shifts, Alliances, and Conflicts.

Abstract:
This paper discusses the Arab Spring, tracing its causes, triggers, and impact on the
geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The uprisings,
sparked by socio-political and economic grievances, led to significant shifts in regional
power structures. Internal actors, such as grassroots movements and non-state actors,
as well as external powers, including the U.S., Russia, and regional players like Saudi
Arabia and Iran, played major roles in shaping outcomes. The study finds that the Arab
Spring exacerbated fragmentation, sectarianism, and regional rivalries, reshaping
alliances and triggering ongoing conflicts. The broader implications of these shifts
include heightened instability and the transformation of regional and global geopolitical
alignments.

Introduction:
The political and socio economic landscape of MENA before
Arab spring :

Before the eruption of the Arab Spring in late 2010, the Middle East and North Africa
were marked by a mixture of authoritarian governance, consolidated social
inequalities, and economic woes. The political systems were characterized by
autocratic regimes consisting of monarchies, military-led governments, and long-
serving dictatorships. Leaders like Zine
El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya,
and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen sustained their power through repression, patronage
networks, and the suppression of dissent. Political pluralism was practically
nonexistent, with opposition parties either banned or heavily restricted. Elections,
when held, were often manipulated to ensure the dominance of ruling elites. The
people were only able to engage in politics in the most indirect ways, and when they
demanded change they were often shot, or put in jail. Economically, socially, culturally,
and politically there were raw or evident challenges in the region despite the
availability of numerous natural resources such as oil and natural gas.

Wealth distribution was highly uneven: While oil-exporting countries such as Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, UAE was rich, countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen of the non-oil new
economy was suffering from massive poverty and unemployment. In many countries,
the instruments of Macro-economic policy, favored the ruling elites and their cronies
which aggravated inequality. There was high corruption and family favoritism, and
states’ institutions favored the elites more than the masses. That coupled with the
demographic structure of the region only intensified socio-economic complaints. A
majority of the countries in the region had issue of high unemployment and
underemployment particularly among the youths due to a youthful and a growing
population. Education, health and housing were all grossly inadequate to support this
burgeoning population and other public services as well. Higher living costs such as
food and fuel became other pressures on average earners and again accentuated
economic hardships. In social aspect the region was characterized by the increase of
people’s dissatisfaction and\or spite for a system which does not offer them a chance.
Sometimes such complaints were grossly ethno-sectarian as was common in nations
such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The overwhelming majority of the minority was
discriminated and shut off of political and economic activity leading to hatred and
rejection.

The novel turning to new technologies for communication especially through the
practice of social media was one of the causes that tilted the balance of power before
the Arab Spring. Two representatives of the social networks that informed, involved,
and articulated youths’ concerns and actions included Facebook, through which youths
conveyed frustrations, organized rallies, and got acquainted with those like them
across boundaries via tweets. This new approach of attunement has awakened a new
generation toward woke consciousness toward systematized oppression and toward
coalition.

By 2010, the authoritarian repression combined with economic inequity as well as

social frustration culminated in instability throughout the MENA region. Externally, the
region seemed strong and ready for change. Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in
Tunisia broke the cycle of oppression that fuelled a series of uprisings which would
radically change the region and try to bring protest to the legitimacy of the political and
socio-economic regime.

It should be thus interesting to speculate on how the Arab Spring modified the context
of Middle East and North Africa’s interstate relations, and what long-term
consequences it portends for regional stability, alliance structures, and power
distribution.

Research objectives:
This paper aims to assess the change in geographical politics in the MENA region that
occurred.

or has it been since the Arab Spring uprisings. This paper seeks to examine reasons
for the uprisings, the effect of the uprisings on political systems of the region and
changes in the relationships and balances of powers that followed the uprisings. This
understanding is important because the Arab Spring altered the internal political
landscape of the region as well as the nature of the regional subsystem and impacted
states as well as non-state actors. The study seeks to provide understanding on how
those revolts transformed the relations of these rising powers, including Saudi Arabia,
Iran, Turkey, and Qatar, and how interventions from the world powers such as the US,
Russia, and EU deepened it. These interactions are analyzed by the research to stress
the necessity of taking into consideration the consequences of the Arab Springs for
Middle Eastern stability and security and the international relations system in the long
term.

Research paper structure/outline:

The arrangement of this paper is intended to produce a detailed perspective of the
changes that the Arab Spring has made in regional politics. The introduction shall
highlight the objectives of the study together with the research questions. From this,
the literature review documents analyzed available scholarship on the Arab Spring and
its impacts on regional power dynamics, sectarianism, and more case-study analysis
of key countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. The paper then
proceeds to the role of regional and global actors in shaping outcomes, followed by the
conclusion summarizing the findings of the current research and discussing long-term
implications of the Arab Spring on regional and global geopolitics.

Literature review:

1) Historical context and origin:

Key Scholarly Perspectives on the Political History of the MENA Region Before the
Arab Spring
The political history of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) before the Arab
Spring has been the focus of significant scholarly debate, with experts emphasizing
the interplay between authoritarianism, colonial legacies, and socio-economic
structures.

Lisa Anderson, along with Eva Bellin, believes that authoritarianism was the defining
characteristic of a region, supported by coercive state apparatuses, patronage
networks, and weak civil societies. Bellin's theme of "robustness of authoritarianism"
underscores regimes' reliance on military and security forces to suppress dissent--a
phenomenon central to this region's political stagnation. In like manner, Anderson
notes as to how these ruling classes legitimised themselves by employing nationalist
discourses, subsidising the economy and owning the mass media.
Others are historical accounts written by scholars such as Albert and Bernard Lewis
and others .
MENA began to trace its political systems to the colonial and post-colonial political
systems. People claim that demarcation of the African territories by the European
powers, establishment of centralized government imposed made internal power
structures weak and reliant on external support. They maintain such practices they
tend to perpetuate authoritarianism and slow down political growth.

Islamist movements are also considered to be at the heart of political history in the
region. Scholars like Olivier Roy and Gilles Kepel study how political Islam as a
reaction to state violence and the inability of secularism as a political ideal. These
movements although were often oppressed become popular due to giving face to
socio-economic injustices that ruling regimes were unable to address.

Finally, Borrow cite developmentalists such as Charles Tripp who observe pre-1989
dynamics of both economic mismanagement, corruption and increased levels of
inequity that helped foster people’s disgruntlement. He pointed out that political elites’
survival had_Checkmating had mitigated attempts at addressing the systemic
instabilities, leading to a crisis of governance that was causing the Arab Spring.

These viewpoint together explain how authoritarianism, colonial influence and socio-
economic marginalization have characterized the MENA region to create a volatile
political climate that the Arab Spring episodes embodies.

2) Geopolitical theory:

Literature Review: Analyzing Regional Power Dynamics and Its Application to MENA
Countries
MENA began to trace its political systems to the colonial and post-colonial political
systems. People claim that demarcation of the African territories by the European
powers, establishment of centralized government imposed made internal power
structures weak and reliant on external support. They maintain such practices they
tend to perpetuate authoritarianism and slow down political growth.
Islamist movements are also considered to be at the heart of political history in the
region. Scholars like Olivier Roy and Gilles Kepel study how political Islam as a
reaction to state violence and the inability of secularism as a political ideal. These
movements although were often oppressed become popular due to giving face to
socio-economic injustices that ruling regimes were unable to address.
Finally, Borrow cite developmentalists such as Charles Tripp who observe pre-1989
dynamics of both economic mismanagement, corruption and increased levels of
inequity that helped foster people’s disgruntlement. He pointed out that political elites’
survival had_Checkmating had mitigated attempts at addressing the systemic
instabilities, leading to a crisis of governance that was causing the Arab Spring.
These viewpoint together explain how authoritarianism, colonial influence and socio-
economic marginalization have characterized the MENA region to create a volatile
political climate that the Arab Spring episodes embodies.
as an historic and cultural authority in the Muslim community. This aspect can be
evidenced by the relatively cut-up nature of security in the context of MENA; hence,
regional conflicts have, at some point been managed by the external forces,
particularly the United States of America, as well as Russia. On this regard, Arab-
Israeli conflict, GCC conflict, and external interventionalism are some examples which
show that both have common threat perceptions and competing alliances.
These frameworks together offer an understanding of the manner in which power
relations at the regional level in MENA have been negotiated and are core to its
politics at present.

3) Arab spring studies:

Summary of Existing Research on the Arab Spring: Causes, Events, and Outcomes
ThePopupMenu says that socio-political, economic, and technological factors were
strongly cited as reasons behind the events in the Arab Spring. Some hold that
authoritarianism, political repression, corruption, the absence of democratic rights, are
considered key factors. Anger due to the violation of economical rights such as high
unemployment rate, high level of inequity and high food price has also increased this
public anger especially among the youthful population in the region. The demographic
factor of Japan that has many young people and the use of social media made it easy
to mobilise and spread struggles across different borders. The Arab Spring started in
Tunisia in December, 2010 with the death of Mohamed Bouazizi in a protest against
his owing failure to eke out a living in his country, culminating in demanding the
overthrow of his country’s president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

Arab Spring Then in Tunisia people uprising inspired similar protests in Egypt, Libya,
Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain each with its own outcome. In Egypt protests caused the
overthrow of the leadership and resignation of President Hosni Mubaruak; In Libya and
Yemen protests led to civil wars. Both dictators died in the process; Muammar Gaddafi
and Ali Abdullah Saleh. Syria was the worst scenario the citizens of which after
expressing their opinions through peaceful protest actions found themselves in a long
and rather multifaceted civil war. The consequences of the events in the Arab Spring
have been positive and negative. Ironically as Tunisia embarked on a highly
unpredictable path of a frail democracy, most of the other states either deteriorated to
authoritarian type or sank deeper into long-term conflicts. The uprisings also
destabilized regional geopolitics, amplifying rivalries, sectarian tensions, and external
interventions, leaving an enduring and contested legacy in the Middle East and North
Africa.

4) Regional and Geo political shift:

Researching the Post-Arab Spring Roles of Pivotal Regional Actors

Middle East geopolitics have witnessed a transformation in its post-Arab Spring
regime, primarily due to the instrumentalization of the uprisings by regional powers
such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. These studies provide insights on how
these state actors approached the power voids and regime collapses emerging from
the uprisings with unique strategies.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are often analyzed through the lens of sectarianism and proxy
conflicts. According to Gause and F. Gregory Gerges, their long-standing rivalry was
exacerbated by the Arab Spring and fueled further conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.
Saudi Arabia wanted to quash the revolutionary movements because they believed
spillovers were inevitable, while Iran used the uprisings as an opportunity for
consolidation through allied groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Turkey's role is looked into as a combination of pragmatism and ideological ambition.

In the case of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey initially supported pro-democracy
movements, particularly Islamist factions, similar to groups such as the Muslim
Brotherhood in Egypt. For instance, Henri Barkey argues that Turkey's interventions,
such as those in Syria and Libya, are part of its pursuit of neo-Ottoman aspirations,
where it aims to lead the Muslim world.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen analyzes how Qatar emerged as a powerful but contentious
actor that used its wealth and media clout, such as through Al Jazeera, to support
revolutionary movements and Islamist parties. These works collectively illustrate how
regional states structured post-Arab Spring geopolitics in the context of competition,
proxy wars, and strategic partnerships, thus further breaking up the region and
ensuring its instability.

Research gaps:
Gaps in existing literature of Arab spring:
While there is ample research done on the Arab Spring, gaps are still present. In
particular, non-state actors, including militias, tribal networks, and extremist groups,
have not been explored in shaping the geopolitics after the Arab Spring. The studies,
which discussed the state's responses and regional rivalries, fail to focus on how such
actors exploited the failures of states to strengthen their position in Libya, Yemen, and
Syria.

While much has been written about the role of social media in mobilizing protests
during the Arab Spring, little attention has been paid to its long-term implications for
governance, political discourse, and propaganda. For example, how authoritarian
regimes adapted to and weaponized social media to counter opposition and spread
misinformation is an emerging field of study.

Finally, the intersection of climate change, resource scarcity, and their exacerbation of
social unrest in the post-Arab Spring era has not been addressed adequately, although
these are relevant to the region's ongoing instability.

Research questions:
_What are the causes and dynamics of Arab spring?
_Is Arab spring is the cause of regional alliances and rivalries including proxy wars and
sectarian conflicts?
_The rise of non state actors and their role in the power dynamics of the MENA region
influence regional security.how?
_What's the role of social media in shaping outcomes of Arab spring?
_What are the long term effects of Arab spring?

Thesis statement:
"The Arab Spring profoundly changed the political and geopolitical structure of the
Middle East and North Africa, pulling down regimes, intensifying regional rivalries, and
altering alliances. This research considers what triggered the uprisings, what key
actors played in them, and how they have permanently impacted the stability of the
region, democratization, and the broader global order."

This thesis is important as it looks into the profound and enduring changes the Arab
Spring brought about in MENA's political order. The research paper will support this by
analyzing the root causes of the uprisings, examining the involvement of regional and
global actors, and assessing its impact on political stability, democratization, and
global geopolitics.

Methodology :
*Research design and data collection:
The methodology of this research paper adopted a qualitative approach, in which
historical analysis and case studies were used to analyze the impact of the Arab
Spring on regional geopolitics. For this purpose, data collected from government
documents, speeches and media contents were used to determine political
environment. Academic journals, books, and reports from international organizations
were employed in order to get an understanding of the antecedents, occurrences and
consequences of the uprisings. This was done on Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria and
Yemen, with individual features of the political and geopolitical shifts that occurred after
the revolutions.
*Research framework :
This research paper adopted both realist and constructivist methodologies to analyse
the effects of the Arab Spring in geopolitics. While the realism sought to explain the
Saudis, Iran and Turkey power, vendetta and security anxieties the constructivism
attempted to offer an understanding of the agent’s propensity towards certain kind of
identity and ideology, and patterns of affiliations. To examine the process of
fragmentation of political systems within the paper, theories of state failure and non-
state actor influence was adopted. Further, the purpose social networking sites have
played in coordinating protests events otherwise known as #Occupy movements and
reshaping political language was
assessed bearing in mind the underlying implications on governance and stability of
the region.
*Limitations:
Besides, there were a number of limitations to the research paper in question. First,
the dynamic character of regional geopolitics limited the assessment of consequent
long-term effects. Second, the number of sources used restricts an immediate
description of critical events. Third, conflicts that are researched in MENA are not only
more numerous but also are multifaceted and do not follow a linear pattern which
makes empirical conclusions more difficult to be made. Lastly, the research paper has
been confined to exploring major countries of the region possibly hiding some
moderate but influential actors and their roles in the emerging geopolitical
transformation after the Arab Spring.

Data analysis:
1) Regional power shifts:

The Arab Spring is seen to have great impacts of power redistribution across regions
mainly in Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen that underwent civil liberty changes to their
politics of above mentioned countries that affected their internal and international
affiliations.
In Egypt, political instability came after the revolving of President Hosni Mubarak in the
same year 2011. Initially, people expected that the uprising would lead to
democratization of the country, as military which controlled much of the politics of the
nation started to regain the power. Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood
variant then arrived with Mohamed Morsi only for a coup in 2013 by Abdel Fattah el-
Sisi and another authoritarian regime. On the regional level, Egypt transitioned from a
heavily allied country of the USA to a relatively more autonomous country, and its
relations with GCC countries especially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia become tighter.
Under Gaddafi, Libya’s regime suffered a civil war after NATO-backed rebels
overthrew Gaddafi. A situation of power transition occurred that enabled many groups
to struggle for control; thus resulted to a dispersed state. The unity government was
contested by another one in Tripoli and Tobruk, where they had support from
international players like the UAE, Egypt, and Qatar. Regionally the country was to
become a stage for proxy conflicts adding more chaos to North Africa.
Social demonstrations ceased being peaceful and became a civil war when the Syrian
president, Bashar al-Assad, ordered the shooting of the demonstrators. This is the
reason why the war lasted for a longer duration and made Syria the theater of the
consequential regional power struggle: Iran and Hezbollah on the side of Assad and
Sunni Arab states and Turkey supporting different opposition groups.
The uprising which unseated President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen is dubbed the
Arab Spring but it has led to a civil strife. They entered a coalition supporting the
government against Iran-backed Houthi rebels to escalate regional tensions.
It is evident that these changes in political systems and alliances have caused lasting
impacts which feed into the instability and perpetuated conflict in the region today.
2) Role of key regional actors:

Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Qatar held significant roles for the formation of the
political environment after the Arab Spring, in each country had the political aspiration
to operate in the Middle East while establishing their hegemonic influence.
Having Saudi Arabia centered on preserving regional order, as well as slowing a
growth of the political Islam, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood. It backed military
coups as in Egypt and intervened in Yemen to fight Houthi rebels who are backed by
Iran. Riyadh also initiated a coalition in the Syrian conflict to address too much
influence from Iran and Shiite. The alignment of Saudi Arabia with Egypt and UAE in
particular helped cement Saudi’s position throughout the Arab world.
While the Arab Spring was devastating to the countries in the Arab world, Iran took the
opportunity to increase its sphere of influence. It backed the of the Assad regime in
Syria, expanded its meddling in Lebanon through the Hezbollah proxy, and sided with
Shiite groups in Iraq and Yemen. The strategic objective of Iran was to form what was
referred as the “Shia Crescent stretched from Tehran to Damascus, through Baghdad
and Beirut to counter the hegemony of Saudi Arabia in the zone.
Syria’s deteriorating relations with Turkey started in 2011 when it offered its support to
the Arab Spring revolts especially in Egypt and Tunisia under the returned ex-Prime
Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, when the region started getting
destabilized Turkey concentrated on increasing its sphere of influence in Syria where it
backed oppositions. Other objectives in the strategic plans of Turkey were related to
restoration of historical relations and putting the country at the head of the Muslim
world.

Qatar, used its wealth and media power, particularly through Al Jazeera, to support
uprisings and Islamist groups, aiming to shape regional narratives and align with
factions that advanced its interests, including in Libya and Syria.

These actors' differing strategic goals led to complex alliances and rivalries that
continue to shape the region’s geopolitical dynamics.

3)Role of non state actors:

The region's geopolitics is shaped by the rise of the non-state actors in the shape of
militias, extremist groups, and civil society organizations sprouting post-Arab Spring.

Libyan and Syrian militias filled the emerging vacuum as proxies for regional
powerhouses such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey. On their own, these militias
contributed much more to an enhanced fragmentation of these states than renewal of
local conflict on the path toward making reconciliation and consolidation very arduous
undertakings. With Libya, each side in control of parts of that country sustained what
made all peace and restoration efforts arduous.
Most palpable expression of regional security resulted from the emergence of violent
extremist movements with ISIS, by far, most high-profile amongst these. Os detonar
vulnerabilidades a nivel estatal, ha constituido una ‘califato’ mitológico en Irak y Siria,
promoviendo un sectarismo más intenso y atrayendo combatientes internacionales de
todo el mundo. Peculiarities of their warfare and ambitions led these powers to this
area and U.S., Russia, and Iran also entangled regional dynamics with their self-
interests.

In some states civil society acted backstage demanding democratisation and human
rights. Their efforts, however, were always frustrated by authoritarian governments and
other militant formations that ruled the political processes. Many of these non-state
actors do not only participate in conflicts but also redefine the geopolitical maps of the
regions as they call into question the state sovereignty and the power politics.
4) External powers influence:

The post-Arab Spring order can be said to be constituted by the external actors,
especially, the United States, Russia, the European Union and China whose strategic
interests in the MENA differ considerably.
The United States promoted democracy in Tunisia and then in Egypt but later
focused on its interest in counterterrorism stability in Libya and Syria, in particular. U.S.
interventions, such as its own in Libya in this sense, created unintended chaos and
sustainable instability. The United States was also interested in containing Iranian
influence, for example, by allying with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

Russia was able to capitalize on the Arab Spring by consolidating its presence in the
region, mainly through Syria. The support of Bashar al-Assad by Russia has been
instrumental in its place among the key players in the geopolitics of the Middle East,
where military intervention has been used to counterbalance the West and safeguard
its naval base at Tartus. The support also lined up Russia with Iran and Hezbollah.

High level, the European Union concerned itself with humanitarian aspects of
revolutions- especially within Syria and Libya- and stability and democratic reforms.
However, on the part of the European Union, efforts were often fragmented: there was
a disagreement among its member states concerning the approach to migration and
interventions.

While China was less directly involved in political crises, it had a deeper influence in
the region through economic leverage, particularly in investment and trade, thereby
solidifying its position in the Middle East as part of the broader Belt and Road Initiative.

These external interventions and strategies have profoundly influenced the balance of
power in the region and, therefore, complicated the already fragile order created by the
post-
Arab Spring.

Results:
1- Key Geo political shifts:

The Arab Spring also saw several major geopolitical shuffles in the Middle East and
North Africa, mostly the division of countries and formation of new alliances.

One of the largest and significant conflicts within the region and worldwide became the
Syrian problem, when the regime of Assad tried to-discuss protests with an iron fist,
which transformed into a civil war. This has created a long-drawn out proxy war, where
besides local flaun raised as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, other global players like
Russia and the United States have been involved in this war. This war persisted and
aggravated sectarian splits, and aggravated mass displacement that has destabilized
regional security.
In Libya,the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime created a power vacuum, with two
governments claiming authority: consists of one in the capital of Libya, which is Tripoli
and the other in the city of Tobruk. In absence of such authority the environment
became ‘unstable’ and outside powers including Egypt, UAE and Qatar supported
different factions and deepening the fragmentation of the nation.
New alignments that began to emerge The above conclusions made it clear that other
new alignments began to emerge. As common in Saudi Arabia and the UAE both
countries increased cooperation; particularly in Yemen and Libya due to security
concerns. Iran penetration was felt in Iraq, Syria and, Lebanon moving that country
close to Hezbollah and other militias in the Shiism alliance. Turkey being part of the
Islamist parties, Muslim Brothers, and wanted to take a more active role in the region.
It focused on Syria and Libya, among them.
Many of these transformations redefined the relations of regional power and polarized
and destabilized the forces in the region within the MENA.

2- Long term effects:

They have favored sharp political and economic change, and strengthened the
structure of power relations since the emergence of the Arab Spring, including proxy
wars, increased sectarianism, and strategic competition between regional forces.
Proxy Wars emerged as a new phenomenon in global politics after Arab Spring. In the
light of Syria, Libya, and Yemen crises, these regional players got involved into the
fighting, backing different sides to protect their vested stakes. Iran expanded its power
over the region by supporting the Syrian regime as well as the Shiite militias in Iraq.
Saudi Arabia supported one group while the other coalition of rebels received support
from the UAE. It was also taken to external players such as the US, Russia and
Turkey.
It also increased due to sectarianism as Sunni and Shia split was on the process of
emerging. , Saudi Arabia and Iran followed sectarian difference while branding
themselves as rivals in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. Religious factions of this sort
aggravated the conflict and integrated a paradigm when religious affiliation is equated
to political loyalty leaving communities and states more polarized.The rivalry between
the regional actors, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Turkey and Qatar has intensified.cape,
characterized by proxy wars, increased sectarianism, and heightened strategic
competition among regional powers.
Proxy Wars became a defining feature of post-Arab Spring geopolitics. As countries
like Syria, Libya, and Yemen descended into conflict, regional powers intervened,
supporting opposing factions to safeguard their interests. Iran increased its influence in
Syria and Iraq by supporting the Assad regime and the Shiite militias. Saudi Arabia
and the UAE supported different rebel groups. The proxy wars were also extended to
the external powers like the U.S., Russia, and Turkey.

Sectarianism intensified as the Sunni-Shia divide was becoming more pronounced.

Saudi Arabia and Iran defined their rivalry through sectarian lines, which manifested in
Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria. Such sectarian divisions worsened the conflict,
contributing to a regional order where religious identity is as important as political
allegiance, further polarizing communities and states.
The Strategic competition between regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran,
Turkey, and Qatar, has deepened. These countries, for security interest, ideological
and economic reasons have deployed military force, alliance and diplomacy to assert
power in number of regional conflicts. This competition has greatly destabilised the
Middle East and has of course definitely worsened conditions in many parts of the
region due to all the changes in alliance and loyalties.
3- Lesson learned:
The Arab spring is quite informative when it comes to understanding politics of the
region and relations between the mutinous domestic actors and international relations.
First, "Internal uprisings quickly can escalate into protracted conflicts" when there is
liberalization of the state institutions. Thus, despite the fact that the Arab Spring was
supposed to spearhead democratic change, it led to the emergence of more power,
vacancy stemming from institutional frailty in the Arab world which has been promptly
occupied by both domestic and external conglomerates.
Civil actions also strongly influenced uprisings and how things have been organized
externally. In any way, shape or form whether it be in military, economic or political
powers internationally provided sparks to start the fire. As in the Syrian experience,
Russia and Iran on one side as well as the U.S. and its allies on the other side added
years to the civil war and made it more difficult to resolve, with regional stability
remaining unlikely. External powers professional interests, rather than peace and
stability in the Middle East, are top agendas deepening region turmoil.
Third, sectarianism and identity politics were far more significant in shaping post-Arab
Spring conflicts than anticipated. Regional powers increasingly contextualized conflicts
in terms of sectarian identity, thereby reinforcing already-existing cleavages but
particularly between Sunni and Shia.

Lastly, the "fragility of post-uprising states" underlined the necessity for institution-
building in the long term. The short-term solution and interventions were insufficient;
sustainable peace requires resilient political institutions and inclusive governance, a
lesson crucial for future transitions in the region.

Discussion:
1) Comparative analysis:

The outcome of the Arab Spring has differed widely in each country - Tunisia, Egypt,
Libya, Syria, and Yemen - with varying internal and external causes.

Tunisia is often referred to as the success story of the Arab Spring. The relatively
stable democratization process was the result of a combination of factors, including a
strong civil society, a relatively unified opposition, and effective mediation by local
organizations such as the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet. It is the political elites
who understand that they have to compromise, leading to an inclusive political system,
stability.

In "Egypt" ,improved was followed by a shift back to autocratic rule

stabilization initial optimism] = return to autocratic rule. The following
was Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood rule after the
removal of Hosni Mubarak with massive military power remaining in
Egypt, then coup by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in 2013. Politics failed in
bringing a resultant effect on the economy due to the strong influence
of the military and weak political transition.

Libya has become a chaotic state after the NATO-backed ousting of

Muammar Gaddafi. It aimed at having centralized control but there
were many local militias for benchmark and foreign factions, and
continual civil war and heterogeneity.

In “Syria” civil strife stemmed from a civil protest that turned terrible
due to the aggression of the President Bashar al-Assad as well as the
Russians, Iranians and the Americans. Political divided among
opposition force and external intervention contributed to the length of
the conflict.

”Yemen” also joined the list of civil wars where the Arab coalition
backed the government while Iran supported the rebel group known
as the Houthis. This division of the factions is based on tribal,
sectarian, and political basis. This has caused a humanitarian crisis
and no solution in sight.

Such contrasting cases help to elucidate the factors of sound state

institutions, the coherence of the opposition parties, and outsiders
which define the Arab Spring..
2) Impact of global powers:

This paper shows that international actors have played an enormous role in shaping
the outcome of the Arab uprisings and realigning the political map of the region.

In “Syria” Russia and Iran backing of Bashar al-Assad ensured endured his
presidency, against the will of the western backed opposition movement. Russian
intervention helped-saving Assad and helped to strengthen Russian position in Middle
East.
as Iran increased its networking with Shiite groups, including Hezbollah and Iraqi
groups at that time.In “Libya” NATO supported by the United States and the European
powers brought change in leadership by overthrowing Muammar Gaddafi, but at the
same time facilitated state failure and continuous civil war., helped overthrow
Muammar Gaddafi but led to state collapse and ongoing civil conflict. The absence of
deliberate planning after the interventions, together with the various and, interlocutor’s
antagonistic foreign policies, contributed hugely to fragmentation.In ’Egypt’ the US as
from they supported the democratic struggle but after the year 2013 coup it started to
support the military as the EU to ensure stability is provided to key allies. but led to
state collapse and ongoing civil conflict. The lack of post-intervention planning,
coupled with competing foreign interests, fueled fragmentation.
In "Egypt" ,the U.S. initially supported democratic movements but shifted toward
backing the military after the 2013 coup, reflecting its strategic interests in maintaining
stability with key allies.
Super powers too influenced the regional affiliations for instance Saudi Arabia and the
UAE sided with the west while with affiliations of Iran enhancing its strategic support
from Russia.
3) Regional fragmentation:
The Arab Spring ushered the MENA region into deep fragmentation and persistent
insecurity as well as shifting power relations. Other nations such as the “Libyan, Syrian
and Yemen”States asynchronous were politically, socially and territorially polarized. In
Syria, the civil war had results in the state being divided into regions of influence by the
Assad government, the Kurdish militia, and other opposition parties. This was
compounded by the interference of other players such as Russia, Iran, the United
States, and Turkey in the conflict, which prolonged this division and resulted in a
prolonged war that did not have a decisive end.
Libya , The civil war emerged after complete overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi whereby
the country was left with rival militias and two competing governments in Tripoli and
Tobruk. Of interest, different factions was made worst by external powers such as
Egypt, UAE and Qatar among others. Equally as much for as the situation might have
changed, Libya continues to no have a government capable of exercising sovereign
power over the whole state.
Yemen also had a case of division where Houthi, which is an Iranian surrogate was
fighting a legitimate government that was backed by Saudi Arabia and its coalition.
This civil war even more crystallized, sectarian and tribal tensions.
This has led to fragmentation that is now reflected by a nation steadily disintegrating at
sectarian, tribal and ideological levels that generates elements of instability that fuel
local conflicts in the midst of cross-cutting interaction of multiple broad regional
animosities – all this while supporting all efforts at stabilization and propping up
monumental international peace keeping and governance challenges.
4) Sectarianism and identity politics:
In terms of sectarianism, the Arab Spring has worsened sectarianism in the MENA
region because Saudi Arabia and Iran; the two GCC countries whose rivalry was not initially
apparent before the Arab uprising are tapping the pole. First, the revolutions seemed to be
signaling an embrace of democratization but as the wars were waged on religion became a site
of struggle forInstead, it became another civil war proxy: Iran backs Alawite-dominated
Assad’s regime, which is tied to Shia; on the other hand, Saudi supports Sunni
opposition.nviting democratization but as the wars waged on religion emerged as a contested
ground for
regional powers.

The Syrian civil war morphed into a proxy war, where Iran supported the Alawite-dominated Assad regime that is closely aligned
with Shia Islam, while Saudi Arabia backs the Sunni opposition groups. This made Syria a focal area in the broader Sunni/Shiite
divide whilst both powers embarked on a race of influence.

Similarly, in Yemen ,the ascension of the Houthi rebels, a Zaidi Shia group, prompted
Saudi Arabia to intervene militarily in 2015 to reinstall the Sunni-led government. This
intervention was justified as part of a wider campaign to roll back Iranian influence in
Yemen and in the region, using sectarian rhetoric to frame this intervention.

In Bahrain ,protests during the Arab Spring were also couched in sectarian terms, with
the Sunni monarchy concerned that a Shia-led revolution was in the offing, backed by
Iran.

Hence, the experience of Arab Spring led to increased sectarianism because the
regional states had to rely on religious appeal to garner local and international support.
It has brought social anxiety, undermined reconciliation processes for the country, and
transformed provincial tensions into sectarian strife which persists up to the present.

Conclusion:
This paper therefore concluded that Arab Spring led to significant shifts in geopolitics
of the states, as was seen in Syria, Libya and Yemen which fragmented, and Tunisia,
albeit with some success in transition. Other regional players like Saudi Arabia, Iran
Turkey and Qatar advanced their strategic interests which triggered conflicts and
realignments. The militias and other extremities group and non-state actors escalated
the insecurity of the region. Sectarianism was aggravated including the Sunni/Shia
conflict and influenced by outcomes, introduction of foreign powers. Nonetheless, the
long-term effect of the Arab Spring has been that of security.,
instabilities, proliferation and fragmentation of regional states in addition to new and
changing forms of geopolitical competitions.
The Arab Spring caused crises for the regional, as well as global, geopolitics.
Interregionally it altered the configuration of power distribution by breaking up large
states like Syria, Libya, and Yemen, and intensified sectarianism – Sunni-Shia
confrontation. It would bring about new alignments and extend existing tensions of
regional rivalries due to increased involvement of external actors … Both the United
States and Russia would be among the more deeply involved of the outsiders along
with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Actually, globally, revolution and its impact brought about
changes in the international relations system. They changed western intervention
policies and made complex states sovereignty democracy, and outer influence results
into questions on security architecture strategy and alliances.
Future research may examine several very important areas: First, much more should
be investigated regarding the **contribution of non-state actors** including militia
groups, extreme factions and civil society organizations in the shaping of regional
stability and political change. After the Post-Arab Spring the new geopolitical realities
hence, powers such as China and Russia who play remarkable role externally, must
be studied for new power equations in world politics. Finally, research
Instead, if translated into **long-term economics**, as they are at least in part,
concerning repercussion on trade, foreign investments and development, the uprisings
would have provided an understanding on what it is that the insurgent ailing MENA
economies imply in terms of the new produced development paths.

References/Bibliography:
Al-Momani, M. (2013). *The Arab Spring and the regional order: A case study of
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria*. Middle East Studies Journal, 15(2), 21-39.
https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2013.802146

Boubekeur, A. (2016). *The Arab Spring and the rise of sectarianism: The impact on
regional security*. Journal of Political Analysis, 32(4), 45-67.

Brown, N. J., & Menchik, J. (2015). *The impact of external powers on the Arab
uprisings: The case of Syria and Libya*. International Affairs Review, 22(1), 68-88.

Dunne, T., & Wright, S. (2014). *The Arab Spring and the international system*. Global
Politics Quarterly, 27(3), 102-121.

Hassan, H. (2017). *The geopolitical consequences of the Arab Spring on the MENA
region*. Middle East Review, 42(5), 156-174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mer.2017.06.010

Jones, D. M. (2012). *The Arab Spring and its impact on international relations*.
International Politics, 49(3), 314-330. https://doi.org/10.1057/ip.2012.29

Kausch, K. (2013). *Arab Spring: The influence of non-state actors and the rise of
militias in the MENA region*. Middle Eastern Studies, 48(2), 110-130.

Lynch, M. (2012). *The Arab Uprisings: Change and continuity in the Middle East*.
Cambridge University Press.

Phillips, C. (2016). *Sectarianism and geopolitics in the aftermath of the Arab Spring*.
Journal of Conflict Studies, 27(1), 14-31.