Practical No.

Name:-Anap Rutuja Balasaheb

Class:-FyBsc(cs)
Div:-A
Batch:-A
Practical Name:-Estimation of trend by using the method of moving averages by regular formula method and excel method

Q.1] Estimates of birth rates in India based on sample registration system 1970-1979 are as follows.
Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Birth rate 36.8 36.9 36.6 34.6 34.5 35.2 34.4 33 33.3 33
obtain the trend values by taking 3 year moving averages.

Ans:-
By regular formula method
Three yearly Three yearly
Year Birth rate
moving total moving averages
1970 36.8
1971 36.9 110.3 36.76666667
1972 36.6 108.1 36.03333333
1973 34.6 105.7 35.23333333
1974 34.5 104.3 34.76666667
1975 35.2 104.1 34.7
1976 34.4 102.6 34.2
1977 33 100.7 33.56666667
1978 33.3 99.3 33.1
1979 33

Moving average
38

37

36
Averages

35

34 obsered value

33 trend value

32

31
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Year

By Excel method
Enter 'Years' in first column>>Enter Values of Y in second column>>select data>>select data analysis>>select moving averages>>put values
of y's as input range>>put interval(3,4,5)>>select output range>>click chart output>>you get values of averages and chart.

Year Birth rate

1970 36.8
1971 36.9 36.76666667
1972 36.6 36.03333333
1973 34.6 35.23333333
1974 34.5 34.76666667
1975 35.2 34.7
1976 34.4 34.2
1977 33 33.56666667
1978 33.3 33.1
1979 33

Moving Average
38
37
36
35
Value

34 Actual
33 Forecast
32
31
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point
Q.2]Calculate three yearly moving averages for the following data.
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Inventory(i
78 73 71 73 75 78 73
n tons)

Ans:-
By regular fomula method
Inventory in Three yearly Three yearly
Year
tons moving total moving averages
1998 78
1999 73 222 74
2000 71 217 72.33333333
2001 73 219 73
2002 75 226 75.33333333
2003 78 226 75.33333333
2004 73

Moving average
80

78

76
averages

74

72 observed value
trend value
70

68

66
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year

By Excel method
Enter 'Years' in first column>>Enter Values of Y in second column>>select data>>select data analysis>>select moving averages>>put values
of y's as input range>>put interval(3,4,5)>>select output range>>click chart output>>you get values of averages and chart.

Inventory in
Year
tons
1998 78
1999 73 74
2000 71 72.33333333
2001 73 73
2002 75 75.33333333
2003 78 75.33333333
2004 73

Moving Average
80
78
76
74
Value

72 Actual

70 Forecast

68
66
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Data Point

Q.3]The following data gives the sales of company for the year 2010-2019. Calculate 3 yearly moving averages.
Years(t) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales(Y) 50 82 65 86 70 52 90 65 87 43
Ans:-
By regular formula method
Three yearly Three yearly
Years(t) Sales(Y)
moving total moving averages
2010 50
2011 82 197 65.66666667
2012 65 233 77.66666667
2013 86 221 73.66666667
2014 70 208 69.33333333
2015 52 212 70.66666667
2016 90 207 69
2017 65 242 80.66666667
2018 87 195 65
2019 43

Moving averages
100
90
80
70
moving averages

60
50
observed value
40
trend value
30
20
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year

By Excel method
Enter 'Years' in first column>>Enter Values of Y in second column>>select data>>select data analysis>>select moving averages>>put values
of y's as input range>>put interval(3,4,5)>>select output range>>click chart output>>you get values of averages and chart.

Years(t) Sales(Y)
2010 50
2011 82 65.66666667
2012 65 77.66666667
2013 86 73.66666667
2014 70 69.33333333
2015 52 70.66666667
2016 90 69
2017 65 80.66666667
2018 87 65
2019 43

Moving Average
100

80

60
Value

40 Actual
Forecast
20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point

Q.4]The following data gives the sales of company for the year 2010-2019. Calculate 5 yearly moving averages.
Years(t) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales(Y) 50 82 65 86 70 52 90 65 87 43
Ans:-
By regular formula method

Five yearly Five yearly

Years(t) Sales(Y)
moving total moving average
2010 50
2011 82
2012 65 353 70.6
2013 86 355 71
2014 70 363 72.6
2015 52 363 72.6
2016 90 364 72.8
2017 65 337 67.4
2018 87
2019 43

Moving average
100
90
80
70
60
avearages

50
observed value
40
trend value
30
20
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year

By Excel method
Enter 'Years' in first column>>Enter Values of Y in second column>>select data>>select data analysis>>select moving averages>>put values
of y's as input range>>put interval(3,4,5)>>select output range>>click chart output>>you get values of averages and chart.

Years(t) Sales(Y)
2010 50
2011 82
2012 65 70.6
2013 86 71
2014 70 72.6
2015 52 72.6
2016 90 72.8
2017 65 67.4
2018 87
2019 43

Moving Average
100
90
80
70
60
Value

50
Actual
40
Forecast
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point
Q.5]calculate 5 yearly moving averages for the following data of the no.of student studying in a clg during 1990 to1999
Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
no.of
332 317 357 392 402 405 410 427 405 438
student

Ans:-
By regular formula method:-

No of five yearly Five yearly

Year student moving total moving average
1990 332
1991 317
1992 357 1800 360
1993 392 1873 374.6
1994 402 1966 393.2
1995 405 2036 407.2
1996 410 2049 409.8
1997 427 2085 417
1998 405
1999 438

Moving average
500
450
400
350
300
Average

250
observed value
200
150 trend value
100
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year

By Excel method
Enter 'Years' in first column>>Enter Values of Y in second column>>select data>>select data analysis>>select moving averages>>put values
of y's as input range>>put interval(3,4,5)>>select output range>>click chart output>>you get values of averages and chart.

No of
Year student
1990 332
1991 317
1992 357 360
1993 392 374.6
1994 402 393.2
1995 405 407.2
1996 410 409.8
1997 427 417
1998 405
1999 438

Moving Average
500

400

300
Value

200 Actual
Forecast
100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point
Q.6]Calculate 5 yearly moving averages for the following data
Years 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
Yeild of
wheat(per 10.14 11.53 9.33 9.14 10.53 8.33 11.14 11.53 10.33 12.44
ekkar)

Ans:-
By regular formula method

Yeild of
five yearly five yearly
Years wheat(per
moving total moving averages
ekkar)
1964 10.14
1965 11.53
1966 9.33 50.67 10.134
1967 9.14 48.86 9.772
1968 10.53 48.47 9.694
1969 8.33 50.67 10.134
1970 11.14 51.86 10.372
1971 11.53 53.77 10.754
1972 10.33
1973 12.44

Moving averages
14
12
10
average

8
6 observed value
4 trend value

2
0
1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
Year

By Excel method
Enter 'Years' in first column>>Enter Values of Y in second column>>select data>>select data analysis>>select moving averages>>put values
of y's as input range>>put interval(3,4,5)>>select output range>>click chart output>>you get values of averages and chart.

Yeild of
Years wheat(per
ekkar)
1964 10.14
1965 11.53
1966 9.33 10.134
1967 9.14 9.772
1968 10.53 9.694
1969 8.33 10.134
1970 11.14 10.372
1971 11.53 10.754
1972 10.33
1973 12.44

Moving Average
14

12

10

8
Value

6 Actual

4 Forecast

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point
Q.7]Estimate the trends by using 4 year moving averages method for the following data.
Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
648 603 578 657 444 519 576 551

Ans:-
By Regular Formula method:-

Centered
four yearly four yearly moving
Year moving total moving total average
1996 648

1997 603
2486 621.5
1998 578 596
2282 570.5
1999 657 560
2198 549.5
2000 444 549.25
2196 549
2001 519 535.75
2090 522.5
2002 576

2003 551

Moving average
700

600

500
Averages

400

300 observed value

200 trend line

100

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year

By Excel method
Enter 'Years' in first column>>Enter Values of Y in second column>>select data>>select data analysis>>select moving averages>>put values
of y's as input range>>put interval(3,4,5)>>select output range>>click chart output>>you get values of averages and chart.

Year
1996 648
1997 603 621.5 596
1998 578 570.5 560
1999 657 549.5 549.25
2000 444 549 535.75
2001 519 522.5
2002 576
2003 551

Moving Average
640
620
600
580
Value

560
540 Actual
520
Forecast
500
480
460
1 2 3 4 5
Data Point
Q.8]Compute 4 yearly centered moving average for following data.
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
production 150 165 140 160 158 155 165 170

Ans:-
By regular formula method

centered
Four yearly four yearly moving
Year production moving total moving average average
2000 150

2001 165
615 153.75
2002 140 154.75
623 155.75
2003 160 154.5
613 153.25
2004 158 156.375
638 159.5
2005 155 160.75
648 162
2006 165

2007 170

moving average
180
160
140
120
average

100
80 observed value
60 trend value
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year

By Excel method
Enter 'Years' in first column>>Enter Values of Y in second column>>select data>>select data analysis>>select moving averages>>put values
of y's as input range>>put interval(3,4,5)>>select output range>>click chart output>>you get values of averages and chart.

Year production
2000 150
2001 165 153.75 154.75
2002 140 155.75 154.5
2003 160 153.25 156.375
2004 158 159.5 160.75
2005 155 162
2006 165
2007 170

Moving Average
164
162
160
158
Value

156
154 Actual
152 Forecast
150
148
1 2 3 4 5
Data Point