MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

(Dr. Kanchan Jana)

1.1Introduction
Real life problems arise from different disciplines including life science, social science,
Health, Management and Information technology etc. Mathematical modeling is the use
of mathematics to:

 describe our beliefs about how the world functions.

 investigate important questions about the observed world
 explain real world phenomena
 test ideas
 make predictions about the real world.

It is possible that we might have solved some of the problems with the help of
mathematics and mathematical modeling without knowing what actually mathematical
modeling is. The choice of approach to a real world problem depends on how the results
are to be used. If the aim is to get knowledge for knowledge sake, then practical
application is of no importance. A present day engineer/Industrialist will not undertake
any strenuous task without a well- defined purpose. Anyone who likes to invest on the
industrial production of the product would like to make calculations either to avoid
unrealistically high cost of real scale experiments or to estimate some future situation. It
is in this context a mathematical model of a real world problem gains enormous
significance.
In mathematical modeling, we translate those beliefs into the language of mathematics
with many advantages as

a) Mathematics is a very precise language. This helps us to formulate ideas

and identify underlying assumptions.
b) Mathematics is a concise language, with well-defined rules for manipulations.
c) All the results that mathematicians have proved over hundreds of years are at
our disposal.
d) Computers can be used to perform numerical calculations.

There is a large element of compromise in mathematical modeling. The majority of

interacting systems in the real world are far too complicated to model in their entirety.
Hence the first level of compromise is to identify the most important parts of the system.
These will be included in the model; the rest will be excluded. The second level of
compromise concerns the amount of mathematical manipulation, which is worthwhile.
Although mathematics has the potential to prove general results, these results depend
critically on the form of equations used. Small changes in the structure of equations may
require enormous changes in the mathematical methods. Using computers to handle the
model equations may never lead to elegant results, but it is much more robust against
alterations.
 The concept of mathematical modeling is not a new one. The Chinese, the ancient
Egyptians, Indians, Babylonians and Greeks indulge in understanding and predicting the
natural phenomena through their knowledge of mathematics. The architects, artisans and
craftsmen based many of their works of art on geometric principles.

Mathematical modeling consists of simplifying real world problems and representing

them as mathematical problems (mathematical model), solving the model and
interpreting these
 solutions in the language of real world. In other words, we can divide the modeling
process into three main steps, formulation, finding solution and interpretation and
evaluation.

Figure-1.1: Process of
mathematical modeling

Definition : Mathematical modelling is an attempt to study some part (or form) of the real-life
problem in mathematical terms.
Conversion of physical situation into mathematics with some suitable conditions is
known as mathematical modelling. Mathematical modelling is
nothing but a technique and the pedagogy taken from fine arts and not
from the basic sciences.

1.2Formulation of the Model

Formulation can be divided into three steps:

(i) Stating the Question: Understanding natural phenomena involves describing them.
An accurate description answers such questions as; how long? How fast? How
loud? etc. But the questions we start with should not be vague or too complicated.
In problems drawn from the real world this should be done by describing the
context of the problem and then stating the problem within this context.
(ii) Identifying relevant factors: Decided which quantities and relationships are
important for the question and those that are unimportant can be neglected. The
unimportant quantities are those that have very little or no effect on the process,
e.g. in studying the motion of a falling body, its color is usually of little interest.
(iii) Mathematical description: Each important quantity should be represented by a
suitable mathematical entity, e.g. a variable, a function, a geometric figure etc.
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 Each relationship should be represented by an equation, inequality or other
suitable mathematical assumptions.

1.3 Finding the solution

The mathematical formulation rarely gives us answer directly. We usually have to do

some operations; this may involve calculations, solving an equation, providing a
theorem etc.

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 Figure-1.2: Flow chart of the mathematical model

1.4 Evaluation

Since a model is a simplified representation of real problem, but its very nature has built-
in assumptions and approximations. Obviously, the most important question is to decide
whether our model is good one or not, i.e., when the obtained results are interpreted
physically, whether or not the model gives reasonable answers. If a model is not accurate
enough, we try to identify the sources of the shortcomings. It may happen that we need a
new formulation, new mathematical manipulation and hence a new evaluation. Thus,
mathematical modeling can be a cycle of three steps shown in the flowchart of Figure-
1.2.

Example-1 Modeling speed and velocity.

By the definition, speed/ velocity is the rate of change of distance traveled. Since speed
is a scalar, we model it as L/T, where L is a distance traveled and T is the time required
to travel. While modeling velocity, the direction too should be specified and hence
the model for velocity is V  L/ T , where the vector notion is used additionally.
Using calculus, the model can be further improved by writing the elementary distance
as ds  dx, dy, dz, so that V  ds / dt .
Exercise 1: Explain modeling acceleration of a particle? (Try yourself)
As we know that every branch of knowledge has two aspects, one of which is theoretical
involving mathematical, statistical and computer based methods and the factors of which
is empirical based on experiments and observations.

Likewise, mathematical models are basically of two kinds:

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(i) Empirical Models
(ii) Theoretical Models

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Empirical Models are based on experimentally founded hypothesis. They
lead to the construction of an underlying theoretical framework. In other
words, they more often lead to “Laws of nature” which represent a
fundamental characteristic of nature. Such models are formulated by
great mathematicians- Newton, Einstein etc. Typical examples are; the
theory of gravitation by Sir Isaac Newton, Electromagnetic waves by
Maxell, Theory of relativity by Einstein, Planetary motion by Kapler,
Wave equation by Schrödinger etc. Only those hypotheses that have
withstood large amounts of critical scrutiny can be elevated to the status
of laws. In other words, the mere fact that the proposed model agrees
well with a small of data does not spice the agreement could be justified
coincidental. It should be test against a large amount of data before
accepting as a law. This aspect should be clear from the fact that nearly
half a century elapsed between the works of Galileo and Newton.

Theoretical Models are inspired by the formulations or guidelines

provided by the modeling schemes. The objective is to apply the basic
laws or ideas in small way and to particular cases.

1.5 Classifications of models

When studying models, it is helpful to identify broad categories of models.

Classification of individual models into these categories tells us
immediately some of the essentials of their structure. One division
between models is based on the type of outcome they predict. According
to the nature of the models, we can classify mathematical models into
the following four types.

(i) Linear or Non-linear Models:

According as the resulting equations which may be algebraic,

differential or difference being linear or non-linear, models are classified
as linear or non-linear. For instance, consider the equation

dN
± λN
= …(1.1)
dt

For the negative sign on the right hand side of equation (1.1), i.e.,

dN
dt = - λN

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 Then equation models the radioactive decay. When we assume that the
rate of a decay of a radioactive atom is proportional to the number N of
radioactive atoms present and  λ > 0 is decay constant. For a positive
sign on the right hand of equation (1.1) gives a model for the population
growth. In both the cases equation (1.1) represent linear models being
linear differential equations. The solution can be written as

0
N=N 0 e ± λt
... (1.2)

where N0 in the case of decay denote the original number of radioactive

atoms at t = 0. This model though very simple agrees excellently with
experimental results. In the case of population growth N0 would be
the initial population.

(ii) Static or Dynamic:

In static systems, time does not play any part and hence the variable and
relationships describing the system are time independent. In contrast, in
dynamic systems, time plays a very important role with the variables
and/or relationships describing the system changing with time. Consider
for instance a fluid flowing through a rigid diverging tube see Figure-
1.3.
Let the velocity of the fluid be V1 at the point P1 at which the area of
the cross section of the tube is A 1. Let V2 be the velocity at the point P2
at which the area of cross section of the tube is A2. The principal of
conservation of mass states that the rate of flow in at P1 is equal to the
rate of flow out at P2. Since the tube is rigid and no extra fluid is
produced inside or nothing is taken out. In other words, there are no
sources or sinks inside or surrounding the tube.

Now the rate of mass entering the tube at P1 = area x

velocity = A1 V1. Rate of mass leaving the tube at P2 =
A2 V2.

Conservation law can be written therefore, in the form of an equation

A1V1 = A2 V2 …(1.3)

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Rate of mass entering the tube at P1 is equal to the rate of mass leaving the tube at P2.
Equation (1.3) is the conservation equation corresponding to the steady state i.e.,
all variables are independent of time. Such a system is static system.
In the dynamic formulations, the equations describing the model involve derivatives of
the dependent variables with respect to time.

Most of the real life problems e.g., the population growth , the bacterial growth, simple
harmonic oscillator, rocket launch are time dependent and come under the category of
dynamic systems.

(iii) Discrete or Continuous:

Mathematical model may be discrete or continuous according as the variables involved

are discrete or continuous. In a discrete model, the dependent variable assumes a range
of values and is characterized for discrete values of the independent variable. E.g.,
suppose a population cells divided synchronously, with each member producing a
daughter cell. Let us define the number of cells in each generation with a subscript i.e.,
M1, M2, . . . , Mn are respectively the number of cells in the first, second, . . . , n th
generations. The number of generations, the independent variable, is the discrete here. A
simple equation relating successive generations in the difference equation

Mn+1 = a Mn , a > 0
...(1.4)
If initially, there are M0 cells after n generations, the population will be
Mn+1 = a Mn = a (a Mn-1) = . . . = an +1M0

If |a| > 1, Mn increases over successive generations.

If |a| <1, Mn decreases over successive generations.
and if a = 1, Mn is constant.

Most of the discrete models result in difference equations similar to equation (1.4).
Models based on continuous variable are continuous models. The problem of radioactive
decay is best described by treating the time element as being continuous with a variable
of the system description, i.e., number N of radioactive atoms produced (equation (1.1)).
Most of the continuous models result in differential equations, ordinary or partial, the
derivatives being instantaneous rates of change. Continuous models appear to be easier
to handle than the discrete models due to the development of calculus and differential
equations. However, continuous models are simpler only when analytical solutions are
available. Otherwise we have to approximate a continuous model also by a discrete
model so that these can be handled numerically.

(iv) Deterministic or Stochastic:

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 A system is said to be deterministic if values assumed by the variables (for a static
system) or the changes to the variable (for a dynamic system) are predictable with
certainty. Consider for example, the well-known example of the simple pendulum; the
variables of the system are the position and the velocity of the bob of the pendulum.
Since the laws of classical dynamics describe the motion fairly, accurately, the changes
in position and velocity can be

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predicted with a high degree of certainty. Hence, in this case we can view the system as
being deterministic.

If the values assumed by the variables or the changes to the variables are not predictable
with certainty, then uncertainty is a significant feature of the system. Such systems are
called Probabilistic or Stochastic systems. For example, if one drops a rubber ball from a
given height and measures the height of a bounce with sufficient accuracy, it will be
found that if the same process is repeated many times, the height of bounces are not
same every time, even if all the conditions associated with laboratory experiments are
carefully maintained, the results show lot of variability. In such cases the system must be
viewed as a stochastic system.

Remark: Every real system must be considered to be subject to randomness of one type
or another, all of which are ignored in the formulation of a deterministic model. Hence
deterministic models generally present few mathematical difficulties but can be only
considered to describe system behavior in same average sense. Stochastic models are
required whenever it is necessary to explicitly account for the randomness of underlying
events.

Most of the discrete and stochastic models lead to difference/algebraic equations

whereas linear, static/dynamic and continuous models require the knowledge of
algebraic/differential equations. With the advent of fast computers, it should be possible
(whenever analytic solutions are not available) to solve these equations numerically.
Apart from these, the success of mathematical modeling will also depend on the skills
you have in algebra, calculus, geometry, trigonometry, transcendental equations, integral
equations, integro- differential equations etc.

Example: Which type of modeling will be used for the launching of a rocket/ satellite
for meteorological purposes?
Modeling used for the said purpose is dynamic, continuous and deterministic. It is
dynamic and continuous because the flight velocity will continuously depend on time. It
is deterministic because equations describing the flight can be set up based on
established laws and the path of the satellite/rocket can be predicted with certainty.

1.6 Objectives of the modeling

Mathematical modeling can be used for a number of different reasons. How well any
particular objective is achieved depends on both the state of knowledge about a system
and how well the modeling is done. Examples of the range of objectives are:

 Developing scientific understanding - through quantitative expression of

current knowledge of a system (as well as displaying what we know, this may
also show up what we do not know)
 test the effect of changes in a system
 aid decision making, including
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 o tactical decisions by managers
o Strategic decisions by planners.

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 1.7 Limitations of a Mathematical Model
Mathematical modeling is a multi-stage activity requiring a variety of concepts and
techniques. Utmost caution is required in framing proper models, otherwise an absurd
model lead to a strange solution. If the basic formulation is wrong, no amount of
sophistication in the treatment of resulting equations can lead to a right answer. It is
important to remember that the model is only a simplification of the real world problem
and that the two are not the same. In fact lack of distinction between models and the
reality has often slowed down the progress in modeling. It is paradoxical that some
models, which were very successful initially in understanding, the problems have
become stumbling blocks to progress. The reason is we get used to a model and continue
to use it even after it is discredited. For instance consider the solar system, till 16th
century it was believed that earth was the centre of the universe and all the other planets
and sun move around the earth. Because of this theory the model used to study the solar
system were circular paths with earth as the centre. It was called the Geocentric model.
This model was successful in explaining night, day, seasons etc. But, there were many
observations, the model could not explain. Later in 16 th century Copernicus proposed
another theory called Heliocentric theory which describes that the sun is the centre of
the universe, and that all planets moved around the sun in elliptical paths. So in this case
model used is an elliptical path with sun as the centre. This model successfully explained
most of the problems connected with solar system but people simply refused to accept
the model, initially. One of the reasons for this is that the geocentric model put the earth
as the centre of the universe and people were unwilling to discard such a favorite notion.

1.8 Formulation of the problem

In this step of modeling- given a real world problem, we proceed, how do we convert it
to model abstraction leading to a mathematical equation? We have to also take into
account, how to:

(i) Identify the problem with all its complexities

(ii) Identify the essential characteristics of the problem, which have to be incorporated
into the model.
(iii) Simplify the model by neglecting features, which are of secondary or lesser
importance.
(iv) Write the basic equations based on the basic laws of nature or intuitive logic,
which retain the essential characteristics of the model.

Primarily, mathematical modeling utilizes analogy to help you understand the behavior of
complex system. e.g., the phrase “cool as cucumber” introduces a conceptual model of
“cool” into our minds. Modeling is an activity, which is fundamental to the scientific
methods. Models rarely replicate a system. Also, they are not unique in representation
and so can mean different things for different people. Consider how businessman and a
biologist view a mango tree:
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 A Businessman’s view: Wealth, Orchard, Timber!!!
A Biologist’s view: A living thing, A large plant, Nutritious food!!!

Their conceptual views of the same object are rather different since they are heavily
influenced by their own environment, background and objectives. The same is true when
we come to the mathematical modeling of any system or process.

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 Thus there is no hard and fast approach to develop a model. But, we need to broadly
follow the following steps in the beginning:

(i) Establish a main purpose for the model:

Real situations are quite complex. If one wishes to develop a model, which will
explain and account for all aspects of a phenomenon, such a model will most likely be
difficult to develop, very complex and unmanageable. On the other hand, a model
with limited purpose will be easy to handle and still many important conclusions
related to the main purpose can be drawn. Thus, before developing a model we must
be clear about the purpose of doing it. For example, in the case of a problem
concerned with simple pendulum, what is our main purpose? It is to find the period of
the oscillation of the pendulum.

(ii)Observe the real world situation and understand what is going on. These
observations may be direct, as with using one of our senses or indirect, in which case
we may use elaborate scientific equipment. This step allows us to gather data and
inform well about the problem. We then analyze the observations and know facts
about the system or phenomenon being modeled and identify possible elements
(observations, measurements, ideas) related to the purpose. This step is crucial to the
development of a realistic model since we will get an idea what to expect.

Shift the essentials from the non-essentials of the problem. The degree of detail
(iii)
needed to describe a system appropriately depends on various factors. If all the details
are included in the description, it can become unmanageable and hence of limited use.
On the other hand, if significant details are omitted, the description is incomplete and,
once again of limited use in carrying out the study. We need to find a sensible
compromise.

(iv)The search for essentials of the problem is related to the main purpose of the
model. We may be dealing with the same system but the objective of our study related
to the system may be different in each study. For example, consider modeling the
blood flow in the circulatory system. The blood cells are of diameter approximately
10-6 cm and hence their individual motion or rotation may not contribute much to the
fluid mechanics of blood flows in large arteries whose diameter range from 1mm to 1
cm. But in small capillaries of diameter 1 micro metre, the cell sizes are comparable
to the area of cross section of the capillaries and in such a situation; the individual cell
motion becomes very important. In other words, the mathematical model trying to
depict the flow of blood in large arteries can assume blood flow to be homogeneous
whereas a model of blood in capillaries has to emphasize the individual cell motion.

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