DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

INTRODUCTION
The phenomenon and theory of the demographic transition refers to the historical shift in
demographics from high birth rates and high infant death rates in societies with minimal
technology, education (especially of women) and economic development, to demographics of
low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, education and
economic development, as well as the stages between these two scenarios. Although this shift
has occurred in many industrialized countries, the theory and model are frequently imprecise
when applied to individual countries due to specific social, political and economic factors
affecting particular populations.
THE THEORY
The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the
American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973). Adolphe Landry of France made
similar observations on demographic patterns and population growth potential around 1934. In
the 1940s and 1950s Frank W. Notestein developed a more formal theory of demographic
transition. By 2009, the existence of a negative correlation between fertility and industrial
development had become one of the most widely accepted findings in social science.
The important outlines of the three basic hypotheses of the model:
1. The decline in mortality rate comes before the decline in fertility rate.
2. The fertility rate declines slowly depending on the socio-economic environment.
3. A socio-economic transformation of society is observed along with the demographic changes

STAGES OF THE THEORY

They explain the theory in three stages. But the two famous versions are Blacker’s five stages of
population growth which have been explained here, and Karl Sax’s four stages of population
growth, namely, High Stationary, Early Explosive Increase, Late Explosive Increase, and Low
Stationary. The theory of demographic transition is based on the actual population trends of
advanced countries of the world. DTT states that every country passes through 5 different stages of
population development.
According to C.P. Blacker, they are:
(i) the high stationary phase marked by high fertility and mortality rates;
(ii) the early expanding phase marked by high fertility and high but declining mortality;
(iii) the late expanding phase with declining fertility but with mortality declining more
rapidly.
(iv) the low stationary phase with low fertility balanced by equally low mortality; and
(v) the declining phase with low mortality, lower fertility and an excess of deaths over births.
 STAGE ONE
• In pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates were both high, and fluctuated
rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively
constant and young population.
• Family planning and contraception were virtually nonexistent; therefore, birth rates were
essentially only limited by the ability of women to bear children. Emigration depressed
death rates in some special cases (for example, Europe and particularly the Eastern
United States during the 19th century), but, overall, death rates tended to match birth
rates, often exceeding 40 per 1000 per year.
• Children contributed to the economy of the household from an early age by carrying
water, firewood, and messages, caring for younger siblings, sweeping, washing dishes,
preparing food, and working in the fields. Raising a child cost little more than feeding
him or her; there were no education or entertainment expenses.
• Thus, the total cost of raising children barely exceeded their contribution to the
household. In addition, as they became adults they become a major input to the family
business, mainly farming, and were the primary form of insurance for adults in old age.
In India, an adult son was all that prevented a widow from falling into destitution. While
death rates remained high there was no question as to the need for children, even if the
means to prevent them had existed.
• During this stage, the society evolves in accordance with Malthusian paradigm, with
population essentially determined by the food supply.

• Any fluctuations in food supply (either positive, for example, due to technology
improvements, or negative, due to droughts and pest invasions) tend to translate directly
into population fluctuations. Famines resulting in significant mortality are frequent.

STAGE TWO
This stage leads to a fall in death rates and an increase in population. The changes leading to this
stage in Europe were initiated in the Agricultural Revolution of the eighteenth century and were
initially quite slow.
In the twentieth century, the falls in death rates in developing countries tended to be substantially
faster.
Countries in this stage include Yemen, Afghanistan, the Palestinian territories and Iraq and much
of Sub-Saharan Africa (but do not include South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland,
Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya, Gabon and Ghana, which have begun to move into stage 3).
The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors:

• First, improvements in the food supply brought about by higher yields in agricultural
practices and better transportation reduce death due to starvation and lack of water.
Agricultural improvements included crop rotation, selective breeding, and seed drill
technology.
• Second, significant improvements in public health reduce mortality, particularly in
childhood. These are not so many medical breakthroughs (Europe passed through stage
two before the advances of the mid-twentieth century, although there was significant
medical progress in the nineteenth century, such as the development of vaccination) as
they are improvements in water supply, sewerage, food handling, and general personal
hygiene following from growing scientific knowledge of the causes of disease and the
improved education and social status of mothers.

• A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid growth in

population growth (a.k.a. "population explosion") as the gap between deaths and births
grows wider and wider. Note that this growth is not due to an increase in fertility (or birth
rates) but to adecline in deaths.

• This change in population occurred in north-western Europe during the nineteenth

century due to the Industrial Revolution. During the second half of the twentieth century
less-developed countries entered Stage Two, creating the worldwide rapid growth of
number of living people that has demographers concerned today. In this stage of DT,
countries are vulnerable to become failed states in the absence of progressive
governments.

• Another characteristic of Stage Two of the demographic transition is a change in the age
structure of the population. In Stage One, the majority of deaths are concentrated in the
first 5–10years of life.

• Therefore, more than anything else, the decline in death rates in Stage Two entails the
increasing survival of children and a growing population. Hence, the age structure of the
population becomes increasingly youthful and start to have big families and more of
these children enter the reproductive cycle of their lives while maintaining the high
fertility rates of their parents.

• The bottom of the "age pyramid" widens first where children, teenagers and infants are
here, accelerating population growth rate. The age structure of such a population is
illustratedby using an example from the Third World today.
STAGE THREE
In Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), death rates are low and birth rates
diminish, as a rule accordingly of enhanced economic conditions, an expansion in women's
status and education, and access to contraception. The decrease in birth rate fluctuates from
nation to nation, as does the time span in which it is experienced. Stage Three moves the
population towards stability through a decline in the birth rate. Several fertility factors contribute
to this eventual decline, and are generally similar to those associated with sub-replacement
fertility, although some are speculative:

• In rural areas continued decline in childhood death means that at some point parents
realize they need not require so many children to be born to ensure a comfortable old age.
As childhood death continues to fall and incomes increase parents can become
increasingly confident that fewer children will suffice to help in family business and care
for them in old age.
• Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value
of children in rural society. Urban living also raises the cost of dependent children to a
family. A recent theory suggests that urbanization also contributes to reducing the birth
rate because it disrupts optimal mating patterns. A 2008 study in Iceland found that the
most fecund marriages are between distant cousins. Genetic incompatibilities inherent in
more distant outbreeding makes reproduction harder.
• In both rural and urban areas, the cost of children to parents is exacerbated by the
introduction of compulsory education acts and the increased need to educate children so
they can take up a respected position in society. Children are increasingly prohibited
under law from working outside the household and make an increasingly limited
contribution to the household, as school children are increasingly exempted from the
expectation of making a significant contribution to domestic work. Even in equatorial
Africa, children (age under 5) now required to have clothes and shoes, through the body,
and may even require school uniforms. Parents begin to consider it a duty to buy
children(s) books and toys, partly due to education and access to family planning, people
begin to reassess their need for children and their ability to grow them.

A major factor in reducing birth rates in stage 3 countries such as Malaysia is the availability of
family planning facilities, like this one in Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia.

• Increasing literacy and employment lowers the uncritical acceptance of childbearing and
motherhood as measures of the status of women. Working women have less time to raise
children; this is particularly an issue where fathers traditionally make little or no
contribution to child-raising, such as southern Europe or Japan. Valuation of women
beyond childbearing and motherhood becomes important.
• Improvements in contraceptive technology are now a major factor. Fertility decline is
caused as much by changes in values about children and gender as by the availability of
contraceptives and knowledge of how to use them.
The resulting changes in the age structure of the population include a decline in the youth
dependency ratio and eventually population aging. The population structure becomes less
triangular and more like an elongated balloon. During the period between the decline in youth
dependency and rise in old age dependency there is a demographic window of opportunity that
can potentially produce economic growth through an increase in the ratio of working age to
dependent population; the demographic dividend.

Countries that have witnessed a fertility decline of over 50% from their pre-transition levels
include: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana,
Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, India, Saudi Arabia, and many Pacific
islands.

STAGE FOUR
This occurs where birth and death rates are both low, leading to a total population stability.
Death rates are low for a number of reasons, primarily lower rates of diseases and higher
production of food.
The birth rate is low because people have more opportunities to choose if they want children; this
is made possible by improvements in contraception or women gaining more independence and
work opportunities. The DTM is only a suggestion about the future population levels of a
country, not a prediction.

Countries that are at this stage (2 < Total Fertility Rate < 2.5 in 2015) include: Antigua and
Barbuda, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Kosovo, Libya, Malaysia,
Maldives, Mexico, Myanmar, Nepal,

STAGE FIVE
The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages, but additional stages have been
proposed. Both more-fertile and less-fertile futures have been claimed as a Stage Five.

Some countries have sub-replacement fertility (that is, below 2.1–2.2 children per woman).
Replacement fertility is generally slightly higher than 2 (the level which replaces the two
parents) both because boys are born more often than girls (about 1.05–1.1 to 1) and to
compensate for deaths prior to full reproduction. Many European and East Asian countries now
have higher death rates than birth rates. Population aging and population decline may eventually
occur, assuming that the fertility rate does not change and sustained mass immigration does not
occur.
CRITICISMS OF THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Despite its usefulness as a theory describing demographic transition in Western Countries, it has
been criticised on the following grounds:
1. Sequences of Stages not uniform:
Critics point out that the sequences of the demographic stages have not been uniform. For
instance, in some East and South European countries, and in Spain in particular, the fertility rates
declined even when mortality rates were high. But in America, the growth rate of population was
higher than in the second and third stage of demographic transition.

2. Birth Rate not declined initially in Urban Areas:

Not been supported by empirical evidence. Countries like Sweden and France with
predominantly rural populations experienced decline in birth rates to the same extent as countries
like Great Britain with predominantly urban populations.

3. Explanations of Birth Rate decline Vary:

The theory fails to give the fundamental explanations of decline in birth rates in Western
countries. In fact, the causes of decline in birth rate are so diverse that they differ from country to
country.

Thus the theory of demographic transition is a generalisation and not a theory.

Not only this, this theory is equally applicable to the developing countries of the world. Very
backward countries in some of the African states are still in the first stage whereas the other
developing countries are either in the second or in the third stage. India has entered the third
stage where the death rate is declining faster than the birth rate due to better medical facilities
and family welfare measures of the government.

But the birth rate is declining very slowly with the result that the country is experiencing
population explosion. It is on the basis of this theory that economists have developed economic-
demographic models so that developing countries should enter the fourth stage.

One such model is the Coale-Hoover model for India which has also been extended to other
developing countries. Thus, this theory has universal applicability, despite the fact that it has
beenpropounded on the basis of the experiences of the European countries.

CONCLUSION
The theory of demographic transition is the most acceptable theory of population growth. It does
not lay emphasis on food supply like the Malthusian theory, nor does it develop a pessimistic
outlook towards population growth. It is also superior to the optimum theory which lays an
exclusive emphasis on the increase in per capita income for the growth of population and
neglects the other factors which influence it.

The biological theories are also one-sided because they study the problem of population growth
simply from the biological angle. Thus the demographic transition theory is superior to all the
theories of population because it is based on the actual population growth trends of the
developed countries of Europe. Almost all the European countries have passed through the first
three stages of this theory and are now in the fourth stage.