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Problem 1

The document outlines the calculation of probabilities related to a disease test using the law of total probability and Bayes' theorem. It provides the overall probability of testing positive (P(T) = 0.225), the probability of having the disease given a positive test result (P(D|T) = 0.4), and the probability of not having the disease (P(D') = 0.9). Additionally, it calculates the probability of having the disease given a negative test result (P(D|T') ≈ 0.0129).

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11 views2 pages

Problem 1

The document outlines the calculation of probabilities related to a disease test using the law of total probability and Bayes' theorem. It provides the overall probability of testing positive (P(T) = 0.225), the probability of having the disease given a positive test result (P(D|T) = 0.4), and the probability of not having the disease (P(D') = 0.9). Additionally, it calculates the probability of having the disease given a negative test result (P(D|T') ≈ 0.0129).

Uploaded by

wael_m_bazzi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Solution - Problem 1

a) Calculate the overall probability that a randomly se-


lected person tests positive, P (T )
Using the law of total probability:

P (T ) = P (T |D)P (D) + P (T |D′ )P (D′ )

Substitute the given values:

P (T ) = (0.9)(0.1) + (0.15)(0.9)

P (T ) = 0.09 + 0.135 = 0.225


Answer: P (T ) = 0.225

b) If a randomly selected person tests positive, what


is the probability that they actually have the disease,
P (D|T )
Using Bayes’ theorem:

P (T |D)P (D)
P (D|T ) =
P (T )

Substitute the values:


(0.9)(0.1)
P (D|T ) =
0.225
0.09
P (D|T ) = = 0.4
0.225
Answer: P (D|T ) = 0.4

c) What is the probability that a randomly selected per-


son does not have the disease, P (D′ )
P (D′ ) = 1 − P (D)
P (D′ ) = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9
Answer: P (D′ ) = 0.9

1
d) If a person tests negative, what is the probability
that they actually have the disease, P (D|T ′ )
Using Bayes’ theorem:

P (T ′ |D)P (D)
P (D|T ′ ) =
P (T ′ )

First, calculate P (T ′ ) using the law of total probability:

P (T ′ ) = P (T ′ |D)P (D) + P (T ′ |D′ )P (D′ )

P (T ′ ) = (1 − P (T |D))P (D) + P (T ′ |D′ )P (D′ )


P (T ′ ) = (0.1)(0.1) + (0.85)(0.9)
P (T ′ ) = 0.01 + 0.765 = 0.775
Now calculate P (D|T ′ ):

P (T ′ |D)P (D)
P (D|T ′ ) =
P (T ′ )

(0.1)(0.1)
P (D|T ′ ) =
0.775
0.01
P (D|T ′ ) = ≈ 0.0129
0.775
Answer: P (D|T ′ ) ≈ 0.0129

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