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Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
INDEX

Chapter 13: Probability

Concepts Covered:
1. Introduction about probabilities
2. Conditional probability
➢ Properties of conditional probability
3. Multiplication Theorem on probability
4. Independent Events
➢ Mutually Exclusive events
➢ Mutually Exhaustive events
5. Three events are mutually independent
6. Bay’s Theorem
➢ Partition of a sample space
➢ Theorem of total probability
7. Random variable
➢ Its probability distributions of a random variable
➢ Mean of random variable
➢ Variance of random variable
8. Bernoulli trails
➢ Binomial distributions
9. Mind Map
➢ (Colourful & Interactive/ Complete All Concept Covered)
Practice Questions (All Topics Available)
Page 1
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13 PROBABILITY
INTRODUCTION ABOUT PROBABILITIES

INTRODUCTION ABOUT PROBABILITIES

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events cannot be predicted with
total certainty. We can predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e., how likely they are going to
happen, using it. Probability can range from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be an impossible
one and 1 indicates a certain event. Probability for Class 10 is an important topic for the students
which explains all the basic concepts of this topic. The probability of all the events in a sample space
adds up to 1.

For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail, only two possible outcomes are
possible (H, T). But when two coins are tossed then there will be four possible outcomes, i.e {(H, H),
(H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}.

Formula for Probability

The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event to happen is equal to the ratio of the
number of favourable outcomes and the total number of outcomes.
Number of favourable outcomes
Probability of event to happen P(E) =
Total Number of outcomes
Probability Tree

The tree diagram helps to organize and visualize the different possible outcomes. Branches and ends
of the tree are two main positions. Probability of each branch is written on the branch, whereas the
ends are containing the final outcome. Tree diagrams are used to figure out when to multiply and
when to add. You can see below a tree diagram for the coin:

Probability Density Function

The Probability Density Function (PDF) is the probability function which is represented for the
density of a continuous random variable lying between a certain range of values. Probability Density
Function explains the normal distribution and how mean and deviation exists. The standard normal
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13 PROBABILITY
INTRODUCTION ABOUT PROBABILITIES

distribution is used to create a database or statistics, which are often used in science to represent
the real-valued variables, whose distribution is not known.

Applications of Probability

Probability has a wide variety of applications in real life. Some of the common applications which we
see in our everyday life while checking the results of the following events:

• Choosing a card from the deck of cards

• Flipping a coin
• Throwing a dice in the air
• Pulling a red ball out of a bucket of red and white balls
• Winning a lucky draw

Here are the definitions of some important terms related to probability.

Sample space

The set of possible outcomes in a trial is referred to as the sample space. For
example, when flipping a coin, the possible outcomes are heads or tails.
Alternatively, when rolling a single die, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6.

Sample point

In a sample space, a sample point is one of the possible outcomes. When using a deck of cards, for
example, a sample point would be the ace of spades or the queen of hearts.

Experiment

When the outcomes of a series of actions are always uncertain, this is referred to as an experiment
or trial. Choosing a card from a deck, for example, tossing a coin or rolling a die, the outcomes are
uncertain.

Event

An event is a single outcome that occurs as a result of a trial or experiment. For example, getting a
three on a die or an eight of clubs when selecting a card from a deck are occurrences of certain
events. Read on Types of Events in Probability

Outcome

A possible outcome of a trial or experiment is referred to as an outcome. Tossing a coin, for example,
could result in heads or tails. Here the outcomes are heads or tails. While the outcomes of dice
thrown are either 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.
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13 PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Conditional probability is known as the possibility of an event or outcome happening, based on the
existence of a previous event or outcome. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of the
preceding event by the renewed probability of the succeeding, or conditional, event.

Here the concept of the independent event and dependent event occurs. Imagine a student who
takes leave from school twice a week, excluding Sunday. If it is known that he will be absent from
school on Tuesday, then what are the chances that he will also take a leave on Saturday in the same
week? It is observed that in problems where the occurrence of one event affects the happening of
the following event, these cases of probability are known as conditional probability.

“The probability of occurrence of any event A when another event B in relation to A has already
occurred is known as conditional probability. It is depicted by P(A|B).”

As depicted by the above diagram, sample space is given by S, and there are two events A and B. In
a situation where event B has already occurred, then our sample space S naturally gets reduced to B
because now the chances of occurrence of an event will lie inside B.

As we must figure out the chances of occurrence of event A, only a portion common to both A and
B is enough to represent the probability of occurrence of A, when B has already occurred. The
common portion of the events is depicted by the intersection of both the events A and B, i.e. A ∩ B.

This explains the concept of conditional probability problems, i.e. occurrence of any event when
another event in relation to has already occurred.

Conditional Probability Formula

One of the most fundamental notions in probability theory is the conditional probability formula.
The conditional probability formula calculates the likelihood of an event, say B, occurring given the
occurrence of another event, say A.
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13 PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Event A: Today's chance of rain is 0.4 percent (40 percent).

Event B: I'm going outside, with a 0.5 chance of happening (50 percent).

A conditional probability considers the likelihood of both rain and going outside in relation to one
another. Let's look at a few examples that explain the conditional probability formula. Please keep in
mind that conditional probability does not always imply a causal relationship between the two
events, nor does it imply that they occur at the same time.

By knowing the conditional probability of event B, given that event A has occurred, as well as the
individual probabilities of events A and B, the Bayes' theorem is used to predict the conditional
probability of event A, given that event B has occurred.

Conditional Probability Formula

P(A ∩ B)
P(A|B) =
P(B)
The conditional probability of P (A | B) is undefined when P(B) = 0. (Event B did not take place)

The conditional probability formula is:

P(A and B)
P(A | B) =
P(B)
It's also possible to write it as,
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13 PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

P(A|B) = P(A∩B) P(B)

Properties of conditional probability

• Let E and F be events of a sample space S of an experiment, then we have P(S|F) = P(F|F) = 1.
• f A and B ar e any two events of a sample space S and F is an event of S such that P(F) ≠ 0,
then P((A ∪ B)|F) = P(A|F) + P(B|F) – P((A ∩ B)|F).
• P(A′|B) = 1 − P(A|B)

Example:
A piggy bank contains 3 coins. Of which 2 are regular coins and 1 is a fake-headed coin. {P(H) = 1 P
(H) = 1}.
You randomly picked a coin and tossed it. What is the probability that it will fetch up heads?
Solution:

Given the assumption,

Let’s assume A1A1 be the condition that you select a regular coin, and A2A2 be the condition that you
select the 2-headed coin. Keep in mind that A1A1 and A2A2 develop a sample space partition.

Now,

P{H|A1) = 0.5, P{H|A1} = 0.5,

P{H|A2} = 1, P{H|A2} = 1

Here, applying the principle of probability, we write

P{H} P{H} = P{H|A1} P{A1} + P{H|A2} P{A2} - P{H|A1} P{A1} + P{H|A2} {A2}
1
2.2 + 1.1 = 2
3 3 3
2
Hence, you get the probability = .
3
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13 PROBABILITY
MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY

MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY

Suppose you and your friends are playing with two dice. You note down the various possible
outcomes of the sample space. When one of your friends throws the dice, he did not tell the result.
Instead, he said that when you add the two numbers you will get an even number. Can you now
guess the result of his throw? It is interesting to know how this additional information affects the
probabilities of the possible outcomes. This is the basic concept of multiplication theorem on
probability.

In conditional probability, we know that the probability of

occurrence of some event is affected when some of the possible
events have already occurred. When we know that a particular
event B has occurred, then instead of S, we concentrate on B for
calculating the probability of occurrence of event A given B.

Taking the above example of throwing of two dice, the possible

outcomes are

S = {(x, y): x, y = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

There are 36 elements in the sample space S. The probability of occurrence of any of the possible
1
outcome is P(Ei) = . We don’t know the result of the throw of the dice by the friend. However, we
36
have the information that the sum of the numbers is even. Let us find how this information is
affecting the probability of the outcome.

Event A shows the sum of the numbers is an even number. A = {(1, 1), (1, 3), (1, 5), (2, 2), (2, 4), (2,
6), (3, 1), (3, 3), (3, 5), (4, 2), (4, 4), (4, 6), (5, 1), (5, 3), (5, 5), (6, 2), (6, 4), (6, 6)}. This means that out
of 36 outcomes these 18 outcomes are now only possible, and the remaining are not.
18 1
The probability for each of these outcomes is P (A |Ei) = = . This example shows that some
36 2
additional information may change the probability of the happening of some event.

Theorem 1

For two events A and B,

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P (B | A), P(A) > 0.

or P(A ∩ B) = P(B) (A | B), P(B) > 0.

Here, P(B | A) represents the conditional probability of occurrence of B when the event A had already
occurred. P(A | B) represents the conditional probability of occurrence of A when the event B had
already happened.
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13 PROBABILITY
MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY

Proof: From the concept of conditional probability, we have

P ( A ∩ B)
P(A | B) =
P ( B)
Re-writing the above, we have, P (A ∩ B) = P(B) P (A | B).
P(A ∩ B)
Similarly, P(B | A) =
P(A)

⇒ P (A ∩ B) = P(A) P (B | A).

The mathematical theorem on probability shows that the probability of the simultaneous occurrence
of two events A and B is equal to the product of the probability of one of these events and the
conditional probability of the other, given that the first one has occurred.

Theorem 2

For two events A and B such that P(B) > 0, P (A | B) ≤ P(A).

Proof: It is obvious that the number of common outcomes in A and B is either less or equal to the
number of outcomes in any of the event.

n (A ∩ B) ≤ n(A) … (i),

and n(B) ≤ n(S) … (ii)

Dividing (i) and (ii), we get,

n (A ∩ B n(A)
≤
n(B) n(S)

⇒ P (A | B) ≤ P(A).

Multiplication Theorem for Independent Events

The multiplication theorem on probability for dependent events can be extended for the
independent events. From the theorem, we have, P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B | A). If the events A and B are
independent, then, P(B | A) = P(B). The above theorem reduces to
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13 PROBABILITY
MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B).

This shows that the probability that both of these occur simultaneously is the product of their
respective probabilities.

Extension of Multiplication Theorem of Probability to n Events

For n events A1, A2, …, An, we have

P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ … ∩ An) = P(A1) P (A2 | A1) P(A3 | A1 ∩ A2) … × P(An |A1 ∩ A2

∩ … ∩ An-1)

Extension of Multiplication Theorem of Probability to n Independent Events

For n independent events, the multiplication theorem reduces to

P (A1 ∩ A2 ∩ … ∩ An) = P(A1) P(A2) … P(An).

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13 PROBABILITY
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Andrew is closely observing a juggler in the circus. He has a few coloured juggling clubs - 1 is red, 2
are green, and the remaining 3 are blue. Suddenly, he makes a mistake. One of the
juggling clubs is dropped and picked again. Now, the second juggling club is also
dropped from his hand. What is the probability that the first juggling club is
blue, and the second juggling club is green? It can be quite confusing
to answer. The clubs that Andrew might pick are not dependent on
any previous incidents and thus the clubs could be any of the
colours. Such events are called independent events, and these are not
affected by previous events.

The two events are said to be independent events if the outcome of one event does not affect the
outcome of another. Or, we can say that if one event does not influence the probability of another
event, it is called an independent event. Independent events in probability reflect real-life events.
For understanding this, we can take some examples like scoring good marks in an exam has no effect
on what the neighbours are up to. Similarly, taking a cab to market has no effect on finding your
favourite movie on YouTube. Another way of putting is that an independent event does not rely on
another event to happen first.

Probability of Independent Events

The probability of independent events we must go through with the formula of conditional
probability which is given below: If the probability of events A and B is P(A) and P(B) respectively,
A
then the conditional probability of event B such that event A has already occurred is P ( ). The
B
conditional probability formula is presented below.
A P(A ∩ B) P(B ∩ A)
P( ) = or
B P(B) P(B)
Given, P(A) must be greater than 0. P(A) less than 0 means that A is an impossible event. In P(A∩B),
the intersection denotes the compound probability of an event.

Method to Identify Independent Events

Before applying probability formulas, one needs to identify an independent event. Few steps for
checking whether the probability belongs to a dependent or independent events:

Step 1: Check if it possible for the events to happen in any order? If yes, go to Step 2, or else go to
Step 3

Step 2: Check if one event affects the outcome of the other event? If yes, go to step 4, or else go to
Step 3
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13 PROBABILITY
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Step 3: The event is independent. Use the formula of independent events and get the answer.

Step 4: The event is dependent. Use the formula of dependent event and get the answer.

Mutually Exclusive events

Mutually exclusive events are those events that do not occur at the same time. For example, when
a coin is tossed then the result will be either head or tail, but we cannot get both the results. Such
events are also called disjoint events since they do not happen simultaneously.

In probability theory, two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same
time or simultaneously. In other words, mutually exclusive events are called disjoint events. If two
events are considered disjoint events, then the probability of both events occurring at the same time
will be zero.

If A and B are the two events, then the probability of disjoint of event A and B is written by:

Probability of Disjoint (or) Mutually Exclusive Event = P (A and B) = 0

Find Mutually Exclusive Events

In probability, the specific addition rule is valid when two events are
mutually exclusive. It states that the probability of either event occurring
is the sum of probabilities of each event occurring. If A and B are said to be
mutually exclusive events then the probability of an event A occurring or the
probability of event B occurring that is P (a ∪ b) formula is given by P(A) + P(B), i.e.,

• P (A Or B) = P(A) + P(B)
• P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

Note:

If the events A and B are not mutually exclusive, the probability of getting A or B
that is P(A ∪ B) formula is given as follows:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Real-life Examples on Mutually Exclusive Events

• When tossing a coin, the event of getting head and tail are mutually exclusive. Because the
probability of getting head and tail simultaneously is 0.
• In a six-sided die, the events “2” and “5” are mutually exclusive. We cannot get both the
events 2 and 5 at the same time when we threw one die.
• In a deck of 52 cards, drawing a red card and drawing a club are mutually exclusive events
because all the clubs are black.
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13 PROBABILITY
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Rules for Mutually Exclusive Events

In probability theory, two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they do not occur at the same
time. A clear case is the set of results of a single coin toss, which can end in either heads or tails, but
not for both. While tossing the coin, both outcomes are collectively exhaustive, which suggests that
at least one of the consequences must happen, so these two possibilities collectively exhaust all the
possibilities. Though, not all mutually exclusive events are commonly exhaustive. For example, the
outcomes 1 and 4 of a six-sided die, when we throw it, are mutually exclusive (both 1 and 4 cannot
come as result at the same time) but not collectively exhaustive (it can result in distinct outcomes
such as 2, 3, 5, 6).

From the definition of mutually exclusive events, certain rules for probability are concluded.

• Addition Rule: P(A + B) = 1

• Subtraction Rule: P(A U B)’ = 0
• Multiplication Rule: P(A ∩ B) = 0

There are different varieties of events also. For instance, think of a coin that has a Head on both the
sides of the coin or a Tail on both sides. It doesn’t matter how many times you flip it; it will always
occur Head (for the first coin) and Tail (for the second coin). If we check the sample space of such
experiment, it will be either {H} for the first coin and {T} for the second one. Such events have single
point in the sample space and are called “Simple Events”. Such kind of two sample events is always
mutually exclusive.

Mutually Exhaustive events

If E1, E2, E3, …, En are n events of a sample space S, and if:
n

E1 ∪ E2 ∪ E3 ∪ … ∪ En = ⋃ Ei = S
i=1

In other words, events E1, E2, E3, …, En are called exhaustive events if at least one of them necessarily
occurs whenever the experiment is performed.

Exhaustive Events in Probability

The experiment of throwing a die.

Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Assume that A, B and C are the events associated with this experiment.
Also, let us define these events as:

A be the event of getting a number greater than 3.

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13 PROBABILITY
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

B be the event of getting a number greater than 2 but less than 5

C be the event of getting a number less than 3

We can write these events as:

A = {4, 5, 6}

B = {3, 4}

and C = {1, 2}

We observe that.

A ⋃ B ⋃ C = {4, 5, 6} ⋃ {3, 4} ⋃ {1, 2} = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = S

Therefore, A, B, and C are called exhaustive events.

However, the probability of exhaustive events is equal to 1.

Collectively Exhaustive Events

In probability theory, a set of events can be either jointly or collectively exhaustive if at least one of
the events must occur for sure. We can verify that because the outcomes comprise the entire range
of possible outcomes, i.e., sample space for an experiment. For example, when throwing an unbiased
six-sided die, the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are collectively exhaustive. Similarly, when a coin is
tossed, the outcome can either be heads or tails. Therefore, considering each can occur during an
experiment, they are both described as exhaustive events. However, the union of all those events
comprises the sample space of that experiment known as the exhaustive events.

Exhaustive Events Venn Diagram

The below figure shows the Venn diagram representation of collectively exhaustive events in
comparison with exclusive events.
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13 PROBABILITY
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Example 1: Prove that if X and Y are independent events, then X and Y’ are also independent events.

Solution: Since X and Y are independent,

we have P(X ∩ Y) = P(X). P(Y) .... (1)

X ∩ Y and X ∩ Y′ are mutually exclusive events and also X = (X ∩ Y) ∪ (X ∩ Y′).

Therefore P(X) = P(X ∩ Y) + P(X ∩ Y′)

or P(X ∩ Y′) = P(X) − P(X ∩ Y)

= P(X) − P(X) . P(Y) …..by ……1

= P(X) (1−P(Y)

= P(X). P(Y′)

Hence, X and Y′ are independent.

Example 2: If X and Y are two independent events, then prove that the probability of happening of
at least one event X and Y is given by 1 - P(X’)P(Y’).

Solution: P (at least one of X and Y) = P(X ∪ Y)

= P(X) + P(Y) − P(X ∩ Y)

= P(X) + P(Y) − P(X) P(Y)

= P(X) + P(Y) [1 − P(X)]

= P(X) + P(Y). P(X′)

= 1 − P(X′) + P(Y) P(X′)

= 1 − P(X′) [1 − P(Y)]

= 1 − P(X′) P(Y′)
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Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
THREE EVENTS ARE MUTUALLY INDEPENDENT

THREE EVENTS ARE MUTUALLY INDEPENDENT

Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually independent, if

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)
P(A ∩ C) = P(A)P(C)
P(B ∩ C) = P(B)P(C)
and
P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P(A)P(B)P(C)
If at least one of the above is not true for three given events, we say that the events are not
independent.
Example: A die is thrown. If E is the event ‘the number appearing is a multiple of 3' and F be the
event 'the number appearing is even' then find whether E and F are independent?
Solution: We know that the sample space is S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Now E = {3,6}, F = {2,4,6} and E ∩ F = 6
2 1 3 1 1
Then P(E) = = ,P(F) = = and P(E ∩ F) =
6 3 6 2 6

Clearly P(E ∩ F) = P(E).P(F)

Hence E and F are independent events.
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13 PROBABILITY
BAY’S THEOREM

BAY’S THEOREM
Bayes’ theorem describes the probability of occurrence of an event related to any condition. It is also
considered for the case of conditional probability. Bayes theorem is also known as the formula for
the probability of “causes”. For example: if we have to calculate the probability of taking a blue ball
from the second bag out of three different bags of balls, where each bag contains three different
colour balls viz. red, blue, black. In this case, the probability of occurrence of an event is calculated
depending on other conditions is known as conditional probability.
P(B|A)P(A)
P(A|B) =
P(B)
Bayes Theorem Statement

Let E1, E2, En be a set of events associated with a sample space S, where all the events E1, E2, En have
nonzero probability of occurrence and they form a partition of S. Let A be any event associated with
S, then according to Bayes theorem,
P(Ei )P(A|Ei )
P(Ei |A) =
∑nk=1 P (Ek )P(A|Ek )

for any k = 1, 2, 3, …., n

Bayes Theorem Proof

According to the conditional probability formula,

P(Ei ∩ A)
P(Ei |A) = … (1)
P(A)
Using the multiplication rule of probability,

P(Ei ∩ A) = P(Ei )P(A|Ei ) … (2)

Using total probability theorem,
n

P(A) = ∑ P (Ek )P(A|Ek ) … (3)

k=1

Putting the values from equations (2) and (3) in equation 1, we get
P(Ei )P(A|Ei )
P(Ei |A) =
∑nk=1 P (Ek )P(A|Ek )

Note:
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13 PROBABILITY
BAY’S THEOREM

The following terminologies are also used when the Bayes theorem is applied:

Hypotheses: The events E1, E2,… En is called the hypotheses

Priori Probability: The probability P(Ei) is considered as the priori probability of hypothesis Ei

Posteriori Probability: The probability P(Ei|A) is considered as the posteriori probability of

hypothesis Ei

Bayes’ theorem is also called the formula for the probability of “causes”. Since the Ei‘s are a partition
of the sample space S, one and only one of the events Ei occurs (i.e. one of the events Ei must occur
and the only one can occur). Hence, the above formula gives us the probability of a particular E i (i.e.
a “Cause”), given that the event A has occurred.

Bayes Theorem Formula

If A and B are two events, then the formula for the Bayes theorem is given by:
P(B|A)P(A)
P(A|B) = whereP(B) ≠ 0
P(B)
Where P(A|B) is the probability of condition when event A is occurring while event B has already
occurred.

Bayes Theorem Derivation

Bayes Theorem can be derived for events and random variables separately
using the definition of conditional probability and density.

From the definition of conditional probability, Bayes theorem can be derived for
events as given below:
P(A ⋂ B)
P(A|B) = , where P(B) ≠ 0
P ( B)
P(B ⋂ A)
P(B|A) = , where P(A) ≠ 0
P(A)
Here, the joint probability P(A ⋂ B) of both events A and B being true such that,

P(B ⋂ A) = P(A ⋂ B)

P(A ⋂ B) = P(A | B) P(B) = P(B | A) P(A)

[P(B | A)P(A)]
P(A|B) = , where P(B) ≠ 0
P(B)
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13 PROBABILITY
BAY’S THEOREM

Similarly, from the definition of conditional density, Bayes theorem can be derived for two
continuous random variables namely X and Y as given below:
fX,Y(x,y)
fX|Y=y (x) =
fY (y)
fX,Y(x,y)
fY|X=x (y) =
fX (x)
Therefore,
fY|X=x (y)fX (x)
fX|Y=y (x) =
fY (y)

Partition of a sample space

For two events A and B associated with a sample space S, the sample space can be divided into a set
A ∩ B′, A ∩ B, A′ ∩ B, A′ ∩ B′. This set is said to be mutually disjoint or pairwise disjoint because any
pair of sets in it is disjoint. Elements of this set are better known as a partition of sample space.

This can be represented by the Venn diagram as shown below. In cases where the probability of
occurrence of one event depends on the occurrence of other events, we use the law of total
probability theorem.

Theorem of total probability

Total probability theorem indicates the probability that an event will occur given each of the sample
space’s partitions. A sample space is a set of probable outcomes from a random experiment and
letter “S” is used to denote the sample space. Events are a subset of the potential outcomes of an
experiment. The results in a sample area could vary depending on the experiment. Discrete or finite
sample spaces are those that have a finite number of outcomes. Events in probability are the results
of an experiment. The probability of an occurrence is a method for determining the probability that
it will occur as a result of an experiment.
Total Probability Theorem divides probability calculations into separate components. When we don’t
know enough about an event’s probabilities to directly calculate them, we use it to determine the
Page 4
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
BAY’S THEOREM

probability of an event, A. Instead, we use an associated event, B, to determine the probability of A.

It is commonly known as the Law of Total Probability.
We can express the probability for event A as the sum of event B. Following is the total probability
theorem rule:
P(A) = P(A ∩ B) + P(A ∩ B C )

Total Probability Theorem Statement

If B1 , B2 , … … Bn is a list of all possible events that are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, and A is
another event related to Bi, then
n
A
P(A) = ∑ P (Bi ). ( )
Bi
i=0

Total Probability Theorem Proof

Event A is represented by the inner circle. B1, B2, …… Bn which are exhaustive and mutually exclusive,
can also cause A to occur.

AB1, AB2, AB3, AB4 ………… ABn are also mutually exclusive.
According to the addition theorem A = AB1, AB2, AB3, AB4 ………… ABn
Page 5
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
BAY’S THEOREM

i=1

P(A) = P (∑ ABi )
n
i=1

= P (∑ P ABi )
n
n
A
P(A) = ∑ P (Bi ). P ( ) … . . (A)
Bi
i=1

B A
P(AB) = P(A ∩ B) = P(B). P ( ) = P(A). P ( )
A B
Total Probability Theorem
Example: Determine the overall likelihood of colourblind people if 5 men out of 100
and 10 women out of 250 are both affected.
Assume that A is the selection of a colourblind person and that Bi is the selection of a person. Then,
P(A) = P(B1 )P(A|B1 ) + P(B2 )P(A|E2 )
1 5 1 10
= ( )( ) + ( )( ) = 0.045
2 100 2 250
Applications of Total Probability Theorem
• When you don’t know enough about an event’s probabilities to calculate it directly, we can
apply it to determine the probability of an occurrence, A.
• To derive Bayes theorem, which is the reverse probability of happening to identify the portion
of the sample space from which the event has occurred, the theorem of total probability is
frequently used.
Example: Bag I contains 3 red & 4 black balls while another Bag II contains 5 red & 6 black balls. One
ball is drawn at random from one of bags it is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn
from Bag II.
Solution:

Let E1 : Bag selected is bag 1

E2 ∶ Bag selected is bag 2
Page 6
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
BAY’S THEOREM

A : Ball selected is Red

B : Ball selected is Black
We need to find
P (ball was drawn from bag 2, if ball is red)
= P( E2 ∣ A )
We need to find,
P(A)P( A ∣ E2 )
P( E2 ∣ A ) =
P(E1 )P( A ∣ E1 ) + P(E2 )P( A ∣ E2 )
P(E1 ) = Probability bag P( A ∣ E2 ) = Probability red ball was selected
1 5 5
selected is Bag I = from Bag II = =
2 5+6 11
P(E2 ) = Probability bag P( A ∣ E1 ) = Probability red ball was selected
1 from Bag I =
3
=
3
selected is Bag II = 3+4 7
2

Putting values in formula,

1 5
×
P( E2 ∣ A ) = 2 11
1 3 1 5
× + ×
2 7 2 11
1 5
×
= 2 11
1 3 5
[ × ]
2 7 11
5
= 11
33 + 35
77
5
= 11
68
77
5 77
= ×
11 68
35
=
68
35
Therefore, Required Probability =
68
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

RANDOM VARIABLE
A random variable is a rule that assigns a numerical value to each outcome in a sample space.
Random variables may be either discrete or continuous. A random
variable is said to be discrete if it assumes only specified values in an
interval. Otherwise, it is continuous. We generally denote the random
variables with capital letters such as X and Y. When X takes values 1, 2,
3, …, it is said to have a discrete random variable.

As a function, a random variable is needed to be measured, which

allows probabilities to be assigned to a set of potential values. It is
obvious that the results depend on some physical variables which are
not predictable. Say, when we toss a fair coin, the final result of happening to be heads or tails will
depend on the possible physical conditions. We cannot predict which outcome will be noted. Though
there are other probabilities like the coin could break or be lost, such consideration is avoided.

Variate

A variate can be defined as a generalization of the random variable. It has the same properties as
that of the random variables without stressing to any particular type of probabilistic experiment. It
always obeys a particular probabilistic law.

• A variate is called discrete variate when that variate is not capable of assuming all the values
in the provided range.
• If the variate is able to assume all the numerical values provided in the whole range, then it
is called continuous variate.

Types of Random Variable

Discrete Random Variable

A discrete random variable can take only a finite number of distinct values such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, … and
so on. The probability distribution of a random variable has a list of probabilities compared with each
of its possible values known as probability mass function.

In an analysis, let a person be chosen at random, and the person’s height is demonstrated by a
random variable. Logically the random variable is described as a function which relates the person
to the person’s height. Now in relation with the random variable, it is a probability distribution that
enables the calculation of the probability that the height is in any subset of likely values, such as the
likelihood that the height is between 175 and 185 cm, or the possibility that the height is either less
than 145 or more than 180 cm. Now another random variable could be the person’s age which could
be either between 45 years to 50 years or less than 40 or more than 50.
Page 2
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

Continuous Random Variable

A numerically valued variable is said to be continuous if, in any unit of measurement, whenever it
can take on the values a and b. If the random variable X can assume an infinite and uncountable set
of values, it is said to be a continuous random variable. When X takes any value in a given interval (a,
b), it is said to be a continuous random variable in that interval.

Formally, a continuous random variable is such whose cumulative distribution function is constant
throughout. There are no “gaps” in between which would compare to numbers which have a limited
probability of occurring. Alternately, these variables almost never take an accurately prescribed value
c but there is a positive probability that its value will rest in particular intervals which can be very
small.

Its probability distributions of a random variable

The probability distribution of a random variable can be

• Theoretical listing of outcomes and probabilities of the outcomes.

• An experimental listing of outcomes associated with their observed relative frequencies.
• A subjective listing of outcomes associated with their subjective probabilities.

The probability of a random variable X which takes the values x is defined as a

probability function of X is denoted by f (x) = f (X = x)

A probability distribution always satisfies two conditions:

• f(x) ≥ 0
• ∑f(x) = 1

The important probability distributions are:

• Binomial distribution
• Poisson distribution
• Bernoulli’s distribution
• Exponential distribution
• Normal distribution

Mean of random variable

X be a random variable with possible values x1 , x2 , x3 , … , xn

occurring with probabilities p1 , p2 , p3 , … , pn , respectively.

Page 3
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

The mean of a random variable X, denoted by μ, is the weighted average of the possible values of X,
each value being weighted by its probability of occurrence. The mean of a random variable X is also
knows as expectation of X given by,
n

E(X) = μ = ∑ xi pi
i=1

= x1 P1 + x2 P2 + … + xn Pn
Example:

Calculate the mean of the number obtained on rolling an unbiased die.

Solution:

The sample space of the experiment,

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Let the number obtained after rolling the die be X.

Basically, X is a random variable which can take any value from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
If P(1) represents probability of getting 1 after rolling the die, then
1
P (1) = P (2) = P (3) = P (4) = P (5) = P (6) =
6
Probability distribution of X can be given as,

X 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1 1 1 1 1
P(X)
6 6 6 6 6 6
n

E(X) = μ = ∑ xi pi
i=1
6
1 1 1 1 1 1
∑ xi pi = 1. + 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6.
6 6 6 6 6 6
i=1

1 2 3 4 5 6 21
+ + + + + = = 3.5
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
There is an important point to note here. If each of the values of a random variable (a1, a2, ….,an) has
1
equal probability of occurring ( ),
n
Page 4
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

a1 +a2 +⋯+an
then mean is given by ( ).
n
Mean of random variables with different probability distributions can have same values. Hence,
mean fails to explain the variability of values in probability distribution. Therefore, variance of
random variable is defined to measure the spread and scatter in data. Variance of a random variable
is discussed in detail here on.

Variance of Random Variable

Basically, the variance tells us how spread-out the values of X are around the mean value. Variance
of a random variable (denoted by σ2x ) with values x1 , x2 , x3 , … , xn
occurring with probabilities p1 , p2 , p3 , … , pn can be given as:
n

Var(X) = σ2x = ∑(xi − μ)2 pi

i=1
n n n

Var(X) = ∑(xi )2 pi + ∑ μ2 pi − ∑ 2xi μpi

i=1 i=1 i=1
n n n
2 2
Var(X) = ∑(xi ) pi + μ ∑ pi − 2μ ∑ xi pi
i=1 i=1 i=1

Here,
n

∑ xi pi = μ
i=1

(Mean of X) and
n

∑ pi = 1
i=1

(sum of probabilities of all the outcomes of an event is 1). Substituting the values, we get
n

Var(X) = ∑(xi )2 pi + μ2 − 2μ2

i=1
n

σ2x = Var(X) = ∑(xi )2 pi − μ2

i=1

Var(X) = E(X 2 )– [E(X)]2

Where,
Page 5
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

n
E(X 2 ) = ∑i=1(xi )2 pi & E(X) = ∑ni=1 xi pi
An illustration of application of the concept is given below.
Example: Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Find the mean and variance of the number of aces.
Solution: Let (X) be a random variable denoting the number of aces. Possible values of (X) are 0, 1,2.
(P(X ≅ 0) = P(non − ace and non − ace))
= (P(non − ace) × P(non − ace))
48 48 144
=( × ≅ )
52 52 169
(P(X ≅ 1) = P(ace and non − ace or non − ace and ace))
= (P(ace and non − ace) + P(non − ace and ace))
= (P(ace) × P(non − ace) + P(non − ace) × P(ace))
4 48 48 4 24
=( × + × ≅ )
52 52 52 52 169
(P(X = 2) = P(ace and ace))
= (P(ace) × P(ace))
4 4 1
=( × ≅ )
52 52 169
Thus, the probability distribution can be given as,
X 0 1 2
144 24 1
P(X) ( ) ( ) ( )
169 169 169
n
0.144 24 1
(E(X) ≅ μ ≅ ∑ xi pi ≅ + 1. + 2. )
169 169 169
i=1

24 2 26
= (0 + + ≅ )
169 169 169
n
144 24 1
(E(X 2 ) ≅ ∑ (xi )2 pi ≅ 02 . + 12 . + 22 . )
169 169 169
i=1

24 4 28
= (0 + + ≅ )
169 169 169

2)
28 26 2 24
(Var(X) = E(X – [E(X )]2 = −( ) ≅ )
169 169 169
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

RANDOM VARIABLE
A random variable is a rule that assigns a numerical value to each outcome in a sample space.
Random variables may be either discrete or continuous. A random
variable is said to be discrete if it assumes only specified values in an
interval. Otherwise, it is continuous. We generally denote the random
variables with capital letters such as X and Y. When X takes values 1, 2,
3, …, it is said to have a discrete random variable.

As a function, a random variable is needed to be measured, which

allows probabilities to be assigned to a set of potential values. It is
obvious that the results depend on some physical variables which are
not predictable. Say, when we toss a fair coin, the final result of happening to be heads or tails will
depend on the possible physical conditions. We cannot predict which outcome will be noted. Though
there are other probabilities like the coin could break or be lost, such consideration is avoided.

Variate

A variate can be defined as a generalization of the random variable. It has the same properties as
that of the random variables without stressing to any particular type of probabilistic experiment. It
always obeys a particular probabilistic law.

• A variate is called discrete variate when that variate is not capable of assuming all the values
in the provided range.
• If the variate is able to assume all the numerical values provided in the whole range, then it
is called continuous variate.

Types of Random Variable

Discrete Random Variable

A discrete random variable can take only a finite number of distinct values such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, … and
so on. The probability distribution of a random variable has a list of probabilities compared with each
of its possible values known as probability mass function.

In an analysis, let a person be chosen at random, and the person’s height is demonstrated by a
random variable. Logically the random variable is described as a function which relates the person
to the person’s height. Now in relation with the random variable, it is a probability distribution that
enables the calculation of the probability that the height is in any subset of likely values, such as the
likelihood that the height is between 175 and 185 cm, or the possibility that the height is either less
than 145 or more than 180 cm. Now another random variable could be the person’s age which could
be either between 45 years to 50 years or less than 40 or more than 50.
Page 2
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

Continuous Random Variable

A numerically valued variable is said to be continuous if, in any unit of measurement, whenever it
can take on the values a and b. If the random variable X can assume an infinite and uncountable set
of values, it is said to be a continuous random variable. When X takes any value in a given interval (a,
b), it is said to be a continuous random variable in that interval.

Formally, a continuous random variable is such whose cumulative distribution function is constant
throughout. There are no “gaps” in between which would compare to numbers which have a limited
probability of occurring. Alternately, these variables almost never take an accurately prescribed value
c but there is a positive probability that its value will rest in particular intervals which can be very
small.

Its probability distributions of a random variable

The probability distribution of a random variable can be

• Theoretical listing of outcomes and probabilities of the outcomes.

• An experimental listing of outcomes associated with their observed relative frequencies.
• A subjective listing of outcomes associated with their subjective probabilities.

The probability of a random variable X which takes the values x is defined as a

probability function of X is denoted by f (x) = f (X = x)

A probability distribution always satisfies two conditions:

• f(x) ≥ 0
• ∑f(x) = 1

The important probability distributions are:

• Binomial distribution
• Poisson distribution
• Bernoulli’s distribution
• Exponential distribution
• Normal distribution

Mean of random variable

X be a random variable with possible values x1 , x2 , x3 , … , xn

occurring with probabilities p1 , p2 , p3 , … , pn , respectively.

Page 3
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

The mean of a random variable X, denoted by μ, is the weighted average of the possible values of X,
each value being weighted by its probability of occurrence. The mean of a random variable X is also
knows as expectation of X given by,
n

E(X) = μ = ∑ xi pi
i=1

= x1 P1 + x2 P2 + … + xn Pn
Example:

Calculate the mean of the number obtained on rolling an unbiased die.

Solution:

The sample space of the experiment,

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Let the number obtained after rolling the die be X.

Basically, X is a random variable which can take any value from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
If P(1) represents probability of getting 1 after rolling the die, then
1
P (1) = P (2) = P (3) = P (4) = P (5) = P (6) =
6
Probability distribution of X can be given as,

X 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1 1 1 1 1
P(X)
6 6 6 6 6 6
n

E(X) = μ = ∑ xi pi
i=1
6
1 1 1 1 1 1
∑ xi pi = 1. + 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6.
6 6 6 6 6 6
i=1

1 2 3 4 5 6 21
+ + + + + = = 3.5
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
There is an important point to note here. If each of the values of a random variable (a1, a2, ….,an) has
1
equal probability of occurring ( ),
n
Page 4
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

a1 +a2 +⋯+an
then mean is given by ( ).
n
Mean of random variables with different probability distributions can have same values. Hence,
mean fails to explain the variability of values in probability distribution. Therefore, variance of
random variable is defined to measure the spread and scatter in data. Variance of a random variable
is discussed in detail here on.

Variance of Random Variable

Basically, the variance tells us how spread-out the values of X are around the mean value. Variance
of a random variable (denoted by σ2x ) with values x1 , x2 , x3 , … , xn
occurring with probabilities p1 , p2 , p3 , … , pn can be given as:
n

Var(X) = σ2x = ∑(xi − μ)2 pi

i=1
n n n

Var(X) = ∑(xi )2 pi + ∑ μ2 pi − ∑ 2xi μpi

i=1 i=1 i=1
n n n
2 2
Var(X) = ∑(xi ) pi + μ ∑ pi − 2μ ∑ xi pi
i=1 i=1 i=1

Here,
n

∑ xi pi = μ
i=1

(Mean of X) and
n

∑ pi = 1
i=1

(sum of probabilities of all the outcomes of an event is 1). Substituting the values, we get
n

Var(X) = ∑(xi )2 pi + μ2 − 2μ2

i=1
n

σ2x = Var(X) = ∑(xi )2 pi − μ2

i=1

Var(X) = E(X 2 )– [E(X)]2

Where,
Page 5
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

n
E(X 2 ) = ∑i=1(xi )2 pi & E(X) = ∑ni=1 xi pi
An illustration of application of the concept is given below.
Example: Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Find the mean and variance of the number of aces.
Solution: Let (X) be a random variable denoting the number of aces. Possible values of (X) are 0, 1,2.
(P(X ≅ 0) = P(non − ace and non − ace))
= (P(non − ace) × P(non − ace))
48 48 144
=( × ≅ )
52 52 169
(P(X ≅ 1) = P(ace and non − ace or non − ace and ace))
= (P(ace and non − ace) + P(non − ace and ace))
= (P(ace) × P(non − ace) + P(non − ace) × P(ace))
4 48 48 4 24
=( × + × ≅ )
52 52 52 52 169
(P(X = 2) = P(ace and ace))
= (P(ace) × P(ace))
4 4 1
=( × ≅ )
52 52 169
Thus, the probability distribution can be given as,
X 0 1 2
144 24 1
P(X) ( ) ( ) ( )
169 169 169
n
0.144 24 1
(E(X) ≅ μ ≅ ∑ xi pi ≅ + 1. + 2. )
169 169 169
i=1

24 2 26
= (0 + + ≅ )
169 169 169
n
144 24 1
(E(X 2 ) ≅ ∑ (xi )2 pi ≅ 02 . + 12 . + 22 . )
169 169 169
i=1

24 4 28
= (0 + + ≅ )
169 169 169

2)
28 26 2 24
(Var(X) = E(X – [E(X )]2 = −( ) ≅ )
169 169 169
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
BERNOULLI TRAILS

BERNOULLI TRAILS
A successive event in a sequence of independent experiments where there are only two possible
outcomes, and the probability of the outcomes remains the same in each event. When we conduct
these events in a succession for a finite number of times then the series of experiments is called
Bernoulli's trials.

A random experiment whose outcomes are only of two types, say success S and failure F, is a
Bernoulli trial. The probability of success is taken as p while that of failure is q = 1 − p. Consider a
random experiment of items in a sale, they are either sold or not sold. A manufactured item can be
defective or non-defective. An egg is either boiled or not boiled.

A random variable X will have Bernoulli distribution with probability p if its

probability distribution is

P(X = x) = px (1 – p)1−x, for x = 0, 1 and P(X = x) = 0 for other values of x.

Here, 0 is failure and 1 is the success.

Conditions for Bernoulli Trials

• A finite number of trials.

• Each trial should have exactly two outcomes: success or failure.
• Trials should be independent.
• The probability of success or failure should be the same in each trial.

Example:

Eight balls are drawn from a bag containing 10 white and 10 black balls. Predict whether the trials
are Bernoulli trials if the ball drawn is replaced and not replaced.

Solution

For the first case, when a ball is drawn with replacement, the probability of success (say, white ball)
10 1
is p = = , which is the same for all eight trials (draws). Hence, the trial involving the drawing of
20 2
balls with replacements are said to be Bernoulli trials.

For the second case, when a ball is drawn without replacement, the probability of success (say, white
ball) varies with the number of trials. For example, for the first trial, the probability of success, p =
10 9
. For the second trial, the probability of success is p = , which is not equal to the first trial. Hence,
20 19
the trials involving the drawing of balls without replacements are not Bernoulli’s trials.
Page 2
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
BERNOULLI TRAILS

Binomial Distribution
Consider three Bernoulli trials for tossing a coin. Let obtaining head, stand for success, S and tails for
failure, F. There are three ways in which we can have one success in three trials {SFF, FSF, FFS}.
Similarly, two successes and one failure will have three ways. The general formula can be seen as nCr.
Where ‘n’ stands for the number of trials and ‘r’ stands for the number of successes or failures.

The number of successes for the above cases can take four values 0,1,2,3.

Let ‘a’ denote the probability of success and ‘b’ denote the probability of failure. Random variable X
denoting success can be given as:

P (X = 0) = P (FFF) = P (F) × P (F) × P (F) = b × b × b = b3

And

P (X = 1) = P (SFF, FSF, FFS)

= P (S) × P (F) × P (F) + P (F) × P (S) × P (F) + P (F) × P (F) × P (S)

= a × b × b + b × a × b + b × b × a = 3ab2

And

P (X = 2) = P (SSF, SFS, FSS)

= P (S) × P (S) × P (F) + P (S) × P (F) × P (S) + P (F) × P (S) × P (S)

= a × a × b + b × a × b + b × b × a = 3a2b

And

P (X = 3) = P (SSS, SSS, SSS) = P (S) × P (S) × P (S)

= a × a × a = a3

And

The probability distribution is given as:

X 0 1 2 3
P(X) b3 3ab2 3a2b a3

We can relate it with binomial expansion of (a + b) 3 for determining the probability of 0, 1, 2, 3

successes.

As, (a + b)3 = a3 + 3ab2 + 3a2b + b3

For n trials, the number of ways for x successes, S and (n-x) failures, F can be given as:
Page 3
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
BERNOULLI TRAILS

n n!
Cx = (n−x)!(x)!

In each way, the probability of x success and (n-x) failures:

P (S) × P (S) ×….. × P (S) × P (F) × ….. × P (F) × P (F) = ax b(n-x)

Thus, the probability of x successes in n-Bernoulli trials:

n!
× ax b (n−x) = n Cx ax b (n−x)
(n − x)! x!
Hence, P (x) successes can be given by (x + 1)th term in the binomial
expansion of (a + b)x

Probability distribution for above can be given as,

X (0, 1, 2, 3….x), P (X) = nC0 a0 bn

= nC1 a1 bn-1

= nC2 a2 bn-2

= nC3 a3 bn-3

= nCx ax bn-x

The above probability distribution is known as binomial distribution.

 Probability

DPP

[Topic: Conditional Probability]

I. Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)

1 1 2
1. It is given that the event 𝐴 and 𝐵 are such that 𝑃(𝐴) = , P(A ∣ B) = and P(B ∣ A) = , then
4 2 3
P(B) is
1
(a)
2
1
(b)
6
1
(c)
3
2
(d)
3

2. If 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵‾) = 0.15, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.10 then 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐵‾) is:

1
(a)
3
1
(b)
4
1
(c)
2
1
(d)
6

3. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are events such that 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∣ 𝐴), then:

(a) A ⊂ B but A ≠ B
(b) A = B
(c) A ∩ B = 𝜙
(d) P(A) = P(B)
3 3 2
4. If P(A ∪ B) = , P(A) = , P(B) = , then P(B ∣ A) + P(A ∣ B) =
5 10 5
1
(a)
4
1
(b)
3
5
(c)
12
7
(d)
12

II. Very Short Answer Type Question

1. A coin is tossed three times: Find 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐹) if:
(i) E = head on third toss; F = heads on first two tosses
(ii) E = atleast two heads; F = at most two heads.
(iii) E = at most two tails; F = atleast one tail.
III. Short Answer Type Questions
1. A coin is tossed twice and four possible outcomes are equally likely. If E is the event, both head
and tail have appeared and 𝐹 be the event, at most one tail has appeared. Find 𝑃(𝐸), 𝑃(𝐹), 𝑃(𝐸 ∩
𝐹), 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐹) and 𝑃(𝐹 ∣ 𝐸).
2. Consider the experiment of tossing a coin, if the coin shows a head, toss it again, but if it shows a
tail, then throw a die. Find the conditional probability of the event that the die shows a number
greater than 4, given that 'there is atleast one tail'.
3. In a family there are 3 children. What is the probability that first child is a boy when it is known
that last child is also a boy?
4. A family has two children what is the probability that both the children are boys given that (𝑖) at
least one of them is a boy, (ii) elder child is a boy?
5. Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two children,
what is the conditional probability that both are girls? Given that (i) youngest child is a girl (ii)
atleast one child is a girl.
6. Mother, father and son line up at random for a family picture. Find P(E ∣ F) when E = son is on
one end and F = Father is in the middle.
7. A pair of dice is thrown find the probabilities of getting a sum of 10 or more, if 5 appears on the
first die.
8. A die is thrown thrice if event 𝐸 is that first throw shows 1 and 𝐹 is the event that last throw
shows 6. Find 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐹).
9. A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 8. What is the
conditional probability that the number 5 has appeared atleast once?
10. 𝐴 die is thrown 3 times. Find 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐹) when 𝐸 = {4 appears on third throw }𝐹 = {6 and 5
appears respectively on first 2 throws }.
11. A black and red die are rolled:
(a) Find the conditional probability of obtaining a sum greater than 9 given that the black die
results in 5.
(b) Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, given that the red die resulted in a
number less than 4.
12. Given that two numbers appearing on throwing two dice are different. Find the probability of the
event that the sum of the numbers on the two dice is 4.
13. Consider the experiment of throwing a die, if a multiple of 3 comes up throw the die again. If
any other number comes, toss a coin. Find the conditional probability of the event that the coin
shows a tail, given that atleast one die shows 3.
14. A die is tossed twice and the sum of the numbers appearing in two tosses is observed to be 7.
Find the conditional probability that the number 2 appeared atleast once.
15. One card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If E is the event "the card drawn is a
king or queen" and F is the event the card drawn is a queen or an ace". Find P(E ∣ F).
16. In a certain school 20% of the students failed in English, 15% of the students failed in
Mathematics and 10% of the students failed in both English and Mathematics. A student is
selected at random. If he has failed in English what is the probability that he has also failed in
Mathematics?
17. Ten cards numbered from 1 to 10 are placed in a box; mixed up thoroughly and then one card is
drawn randomly. It is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3 . What is the
probability that it is an even number?
18. In a school there are 1000 students, out of which 430 are girls. It is known that out of 430 girls,
10% of the girls study in Class XII. What is the probability that a student chosen randomly
studies in Class XII, given that the chosen student is a girl?
19. An instructor has a question bank consisting of 300 easy True/False questions, 200 difficult
True/False questions, 500 easy multiple choice questions and 400 difficult multiple choice
questions. If a question is selected at random from the question bank, what is the probability that
it will be an easy question given that it is Multiple Choice Question?
20. In a hostel 60%, of the students read Hindi newspaper,
40% read English newspaper and 20% read both Hindi and English newspapers. A student is
selected at random:
(i) Find the probability that she reads neither Hindi nor English newspaper.
(ii) If she read Hindi newspaper, find the probability that she reads English newspaper also.
(iii) If she read English newspaper, find the probability that she reads Hindi newspaper also.
 Probability

DPP

[Topic: Independent Events]

I. Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)

1. If E and F are independent events such that 0 < 𝑃(𝐸) < 1 and 0 < 𝑃(𝐹) < 1, then
(a) E and F (the complement of the event F ) are independent.
(b) E and F are independent
(c) P(E ∣ F) + P(E ∣ F ) = 1
(d) All of the above.
3 4
2. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events with 𝑃(𝐴) = and P(B) = , then P(A ∩ B ) equals:
5
4
(a)
5
(b)
45
1
(c)
3
2
(d)

II. Short Answer Type Question-I

1. A card is drawn from a well shuffled packs of 52 cards. If event E is that the card drawn is a
spade and event F is that the card drawn is an ace. Show that the two events are independent.

III. Short Answer Type Questions-II

1. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Consider the event E, "three heads or three tails", F, "at
least two heads" and G, "at most two heads". Of the events (E, F), (E, G) and (F, G) which are
independent? Which are dependent?
2. A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event 'head appears on the coin' and B be
the event ' 3 on the die'. Check whether A and B are independent events or not.
3. A die marked 1, 2, 3 in red and 4,5,6 in green, is tossed. Let A be the event, 'number is even', and
B is the event, 'the number is red'. Are A and B independent?
4. A pair of dice is tossed. Event E is to get 3 on the first die and event 𝐹 is to get 2 on the second
die. Show that the two events E and F are independent.
5. One card is drawn at random from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. In which of the following
cases are the events E and F independent?
(i) E = the card drawn is spade.
F = the card drawn is an ace.
(ii) E = the card drawn is black.
 F = the card drawn is a king.
(iii) E = the card drawn is a king or queen.
F = The card drawn is a king or jack.
1 7 1
6. Events A and B are such that P(A) = , P(B) = and 𝑃( not 𝐴 or not 𝐵) = . State whether 𝐴
2 12 4
and 𝐵 are independent.
7. Given two independent events 𝐴 and 𝐵 such that P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6, Find (i) P(A and B),
(ii) P(A and not B); (iii) P(A or B); (iv) P (neither A nor B).
8. 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events such that 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.6, P(A) = 0.2, find P(B).
9. A speaks truth in 60% cases and B speaks truth in 90% cases.
(i) In what percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact? In
the case of contradiction do you think that statement of B will carry more weight as B speaks
truth in more number of cases than A ?
(ii) In what percent of cases are they likely to agree in stating the same fact? Do you think, when
they agree means both are speaking truth?
3 5
10. The probability of two students A and B coming to school in time are and respectively.
7 7
Assuming that the events "A coming in time" and "B coming in time" are independent, find the
probability of the event, only one of them coming to school in time.
11. Ramesh appears for an interview for two posts A and B, for which selection probabilities are
1 1
independent. The probability of his selection for post A is and for post B is .
6 7
Find the probability that Ramesh is:
(i) P (selected only for post A)
(ii) P (selected only for post B )
(iii) P (selected for any one post)
(iv) P (selected for both the posts A and B )
(v) P (selected for atleast one post)
(vi) P (selected for at most one post)
(vii) P (rejected for both posts).
12. Two persons 𝐴 and 𝐵 appear in an interview for two vacancies for the same post. The probability
1 1
that A will be selected is and B will be selected is . What is the probability that:
5 4
(i) Both A and B will be selected.
(ii) Both A and B will be rejected
(iii) Only A will be selected
(iv) Only B will be selected.
(v) Any one of them will be selected.
(vi) Atleast one of them will be selected.
(vii) At most one of them will be selected.
4 2
13. The probability of 𝐴 of hitting a target is and that of 𝐵 is . They both fire at the target, find the
5 3
probability that:
(i) Only A will hit the target
(ii) Only B will hit the target.
 (iii) Any one of them will hit the target.
(iv) Both of them will hit the target.
(v) Both of them will not hit the target.
(vi) Atleast one of them will hit the target.
(vii) At most one of them will hit the target.
2 1
14. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events such that P(A ∩ B) = and P(A ∩ B ) = , then find the
15 6
values of P(A) and P(B).
15. Two students A and 𝐵 are given a question to solve. They try to solve the question separately.
1 1
Probability that A can solve the question is and probability that B can solve the question is .
2 3
Find the probability that:
[V. Imp.]
(i) Neither A nor B solves the question
(ii) Only A solves the question.
(iii) Only B solves the question.
(iv) Any one of them solve the question.
(v) Both of them solve the question.
(vi) Atleast one of them solve the question.
(vii) Question is solved.
(viii) At most one of them solve the question.
16. A problem of statistics is given to three students A, B and C, to solve. Their respective
1 1 1
probabilities to solve the problem are , and .
2 3 4
Find the probability that:
(i) Only A solves the question.
(ii) Only B solves the question.
(iii) Only C solves the question.
(iv) Only A and B solve the question.
(v) Only A and C solves the question.
(vi) Only B and C solves the question.
(vii) All of them solve the question.
(viii) Atleast one of them solve the question.
(ix) Atleast two of them solve the question.
(x) At most one of them solve the question.
(xi) At most two of them solve the question.
(xii) No one solves the question.
(xiii) Questions is solved.
(xiv) Any one of them solve the question.
(xv) Any two of them solve the question.
17. A and 𝐵 throw a die alternatively till one of them gets a 6 and wins the game. Find their
respective probabilities of winning if A starts first.
18. 𝐴, 𝐵 and throw a die turn by turn, till one of them gets a 6 and wins the game. Find their
respective probabilities of winning if A starts the game, if he loses the game, it goes to B and
then to C.
19. A die whose faces are marked 1,2,3 in red and 4, 5, 6 in green is tossed. Let A be the event that
number obtained is even and B be the event that number obtained is red. Are events A and B
independent?
 Probability

DPP-

[Topic: Multiplication Theorem on Probability]

I. Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)

5 1 1
1 If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = , P(A) = , P(B) = , the A and B are
6 4 3
(a) mutually exclusive
(c) Independent
(b) dependent
(d) None of these

II. Short Answer Type Questions-II

1. A box of oranges is inspected by examining three randomly selected oranges drawn without
replacement. If all the three oranges are good, the box is approved for sale, otherwise, it is
rejected. Find the probability that a box containing oranges out of which 12 are good and 3 are
bad ones, will be approved for sale.

2. Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards.
What is the probability that first two cards are kings and the third card is an ace?
3. An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its colour is noted and
returned to the urn. Moreover, two additional balls of the same colour are put
in the urn and then a ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that the second ball drawn
is red?
III. Long Answer Type Questions
1 Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls and bag II contains 4 red and 5 black balls. Two balls are
transferred at random from bag I to bag II and then a ball is drawn from bag II. The ball so drawn
is red. Find the probability that the transferred ball were both black.
 Probability

DPP

[Topic: Partition of the Sample Space]

I. Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)

1 In a group of 400 people, 160 are smokers and non-vegetarian, 100 are smokers and vegetarian
and the remaining are non-smokers and vegetarian. The probabilities of getting a special chest
disease are 35%, 20% and 10% respectively. A person is chosen from the group at random and
is found to be suffering from the disease. The probability that selected person is a smokers and
non-vegetarian is:
0
(a)
10
2
(b)
45
2
(c)
45
(d) None of these.

II. Short Answer Type Questions-II

1. There are two bags I and II. Bag I contains 3 white and 2 red balls and bag II contains 5 white
and 4 red balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found
to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag II.
2. A bag contains 3 red and 7 black balls. Two balls are selected at random one by one without
replacement. If the second selected ball be red, what is the probability that the first selected ball
is also red?
3. In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C manufactures respectively
30%, 50%, 20% of the bolts. Of their 3, 4 and 1 percent respectively are defective bolts. A bolt
is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. Find the probability that this is
not manufactured by machine B.
4. A box has 5 balls. Two balls are drawn at random and are found to be both white. What the
probability that the box has 4 white balls?
5. Two cards are drawn from well shuffled deck of 52 cards, successively without replacement.
Second card is found to be a spade, what is the probability that first card was also a spade?

III. Long Answer Type Questions

1. 40% students of a college reside in the hostel and the remaining reside outside. At the end of the
year, 50% of the hosteliers got A grade while from outside students only 30% got A grade in the
examination. At the end of the year, a student of the college was chosen at random and was
found to get A grade. What is the probability that the selected student was hostelier?
2. An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers.
The probability of an accident involving a scooter, a car and a truck are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15
respectively. One of the insured person meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is
a scooter driver?
3. In a bulb factory, machines A, B and C manufacture 60%, 30% and 10% bulbs respectively.
1%, 2% and 3% of the bulbs produced respectively by A, B and C are found to be defective. A
bulb is picked up randomly from the total production and found to the defective. Find the
probability that this bulb was manufactured by the machine A.
4. Three bags I, II, III contain balls as shown in the table given below:
Number of Number of Number of
Bag
white balls black balls red balls

I 1 2 3

II 2 1 1

III 4 3 2

A bag is chosen at random and two balls are drawn from it. They happen to be white and red,
what is the probability that they come from third bag?

5. Two groups are competing for the position on the Board of Directors of a corporation. The
probability that the first and second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Further, if the
first group wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.7 and the corresponding
probability is 0.3 if the second group wins. Find the probability that the new product was
introduced by second group.
6. There are three coins one is a two headed coin (having head on both the faces) another is a
biased coin that comes up tail 25% of times and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins
is chosen at random and tossed, it shows heads, what is the possibility that it was the two headed
coins?
7. A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past experience, it is known that the probabilities that he
3 1 1 2
will come by train, bus, scooter or by other means of transport are respectively, , , and .
10 5 10 5
1 1 1
The probability that he will be late are , and if he comes by train, bus and scooter
4 3 12
respectively, but if he comes by other means of transport then he will not be late. When he
arrives, he is late. What is the probability that he comes by train? Or He comes by bus?

8. 8. A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six.
Find the probability that it is actually a six.
9. A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack two cards are drawn
and found to be both diamonds. Find the probability that the lost card being a diamond.
10. A man is known to speak the truth 3 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a
number greater than 4. Find the probability that it is actually a number greater than 4.

11. In a factory which manufactures bolts, machine A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35%
and 40% of the bolts. Of their outputs 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bolts. A bolt
is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it
is manufactured by the machine B ?

12. Suppose 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair. A grey haired person is selected at
random. What is the probability of this person being male? Assume that there are equal number
of males and females.
13. Given three identical boxes I, II and III, each containing two coins. In the box I, both coins are
gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in the box III, there is one gold and one silver
coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the
probability that the other coin in the box is also of gold?
14. Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets a 5 or 6 , she tosses a coin three times and notes the
number of heads. If she gets 1,2,3 or 4 , she tosses a coin once again and notes whether a head or
tail is obtained. If she obtained exactly two heads what is the probability that she threw 1,2,3 and
4 with a die?
15. Assume that the chances of a patient having a heart attack is 40%. It is also assumed that a
meditation and yoga course reduce the risk of heart attack by 30% and prescription of a certain
drug reduces its chance by 25%. At a time a patient can choose any one of the two options with
equal probabilities. It is given that after going through one of the two options the patient selected
at random suffers a heart attack. Find the probability that the patient followed a course of
meditation and yoga. Interpret the result and state which of the above stated method is more
beneficial for the patient.
16. In a group of 400 people, 160 are smokers and nonvegetarians, 100 are smokers and vegetarians
and the remaining are non-smokers and vegetarians. The probabilities of getting a special chest
disease are 35%, 20% and 10% respectively. A person is chosen from the group at random and
is found to be suffering from the chest diseases. What is the probability that the selected person
is a smoker and non-vegetarian? What value is reflected in the question?
17. A card from a pack of 52 playing cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, three cards
are drawn at random (without replacement) and are found be all spades. Find the probability of
the lost card being a spade.
18. An urn contains 4 balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the urn (without replacement) and
are found to be all white. What is the probability that all the four balls in the urn are white?
19. A bag A contains 4 black and 6 red balls and bag B contains 7 black and 3 red balls. A die is
thrown. If 1 or 2 appears on it, then bag A is chosen, otherwise bag B is chosen. If two balls are
drawn at random (without replacement) from the selected bag, find the probability of one of
them being red and another black.
20. In a class 5% of boys and 10% of girls have an I.Q. of more than 150. In the class 60% of
students are boys and rest are girls. If a student is selected at random and is found to be having
I.Q. of more than 150, find the probability that the student is a boy.
21. Two cards from a pack of 52 cards are lost. From the remaining pack of cards one card is drawn
and found to be diamond. Find the probability that both the lost cards being diamond.
22. A box contains 5 gold and 4 silver coins, two coins are stolen from the box. Now one coin is
drawn at random from the box and is found to be of gold. Find the probability that lost coins also
were of gold.
23. A box has 5 balls. Three balls are drawn at random and are found to be white. What is the
probability that the box has all the white balls?
24. In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or guesses.
3 1
Let be the probability that he knows the answer and be the probability that he guesses.
4 4
1
Assuming that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability . What is the
4
probability that the student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly?
25. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is in fact present.
However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person tested. (i.e., if
a healthy person is tested, then with probability 0.005, test will imply that he has the disease). If
0.1 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability that a person has
the disease given that his test result is positive?
 Probability

DPP

[Topic: Random Variable]

I. Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)

1. A random variable X has the probability distribution

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P(X = ) 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

Then the value of is:

1
(a)
1
2
(b)
1
5
(c)
1
7
(d)
1

2. The distribution of a random variable X is given below:

X= -2 -1 0 1 2 3

1 1 3
P(X = ) 2
10 5 10

The value of is:

1
(a)
10
2
(b)
10
3
(c)
10
7
(d)
10

3. A random variable X has the probability distribution:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

𝑃( ) 0.15 0.23 0.12 0.10 0.20 0.08 0.07 0.05

 For the events, E = {X is prime number } and F = {X < 4} the probability of P(E ∪ F) is:
(a) 0.50
(b) 0.77
(c) 0.35
(d) 0.87

II. Short Answer Type Questions-II

1. Find the probability distribution in three throws of a pair of dice.

2. An urn contains 4 white and 6 red balls. Four balls are drawn at random (without replacement)
from the urn. Find the probability distribution of the number of white balls.
3. Out of a group of 30 honest people, 20 always speak truth. Two persons are selected at random
from the group. Find the probability distribution of number of selected persons who speak the
truth.
4. A class has 15 students whose ages are 14,17,15,14,21, 17,19,20,16,18,20,17,16,19 and 20
years. One student is selected in such a way that each has the same chance of being chosen and
the age of the selected student is recorded. What is the probability distribution of the random
variable ?
5. Three cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well shuffled pack of 52 playing
cards. Find the probability distribution of the number of spades.
6. A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probability of obtaining
the third six in sixth throw of the die.
7. A random variable has the following probability distribution.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 2 2 2
2 2 3 2 7 +

Determine:
(i) , (ii) P( < 3); (iii) P( > 6); (iv) P(0 < < 3)
 Probability

DPP-01

[Topic: Probability]

I. Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)

1. A pair of dice is tossed. The probability of getting a doublet is

1
(a)
6
1
(b)
4
1
(c)
3
1
(d)
2

2. A box contains 4 white, 3 black and 5 red balls. 3 balls are

drawn one by one with replacement. The P (4 white balls) is
1
(a)
44
1
(b)
55
3
(c)
4
1
(d)
27

II. Short Answer Type Questions

1. A card is drawn at random from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that it is
neither an ace nor a king.
2. Two dice are thrown together. What is the probability that sum of the numbers on the two dice is
neither 9 nor 11 ?
3. From a well shuffled pack of 52 playing cards, 4 cards are drawn one by one with replacement.
Find the following probabilities:
(i) P (To get 4 spades)
(ii) P (To get 4 aces)
(iii) P (To get cards of same suits)
(iv) P (To get 2 aces and 2 kings)
(v) P (To get 3 red cards).
4. A box contains 5 white, 4 red and 3 black balls. 3 balls are drawn at random without
replacement. Find the following probabilities.
(i) P (to get all the 3 balls red),
(ii) P (to get 3 balls of same colours)
(iii) P (to get 3 balls of different colours),
(iv) P (to get 2 white ball).
5. A bag contains 7 red, 4 white and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the bag.
What is the probability that both the balls are white?
6. Two balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 2 white, 3 red, 5 green and 4 black balls,
one by one without replacement. Find the probability that the two balls drawn are of different
colours.
7. An urn contains 7 red and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement. Find
the probability of getting (i) 2 red balls (ii) 2 blue balls (iii) 1 red and 1 blue ball.
 PYQs

Probability

1. BASIC CONCEPTS AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Objective Qs (1 mark)
2
1. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = 2 × 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) = , then 𝑃(𝐵) is
3
equal to:
2
(a)
7
(b)
4
(c)
5
(d)
[CBSE 2023]
1 1 1
2. A problem in Mathematics is given to three students whose chances of solving it are , , ,
2 3 4
respectively. If the events of their solving the problem are independent then the probability that
the problem will be solved, is:
1
(a)
4
1
(b)
3
1
(c)
2
3
(d)
4

[CBSE SQP 2023]

3. Given two independent events 𝐴 and 𝐵 such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.3, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.6 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) is:
(a) 0.9
(b) 0.18
(c) 0.28
(d) 0.1
[CBSE SQP 2022]

1 1
4. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events with 𝑃(𝐴) = and 𝑃(𝐵) = , then 𝑃(𝐵 /𝐴) is:
3 4
1
(a)
4
1
(b)
3
(c)
4
(d) 1
[CBSE 2020]
5. A die is thrown once. Let 𝐴 be the event that the number obtained is greater than 3 . Let 𝐵 be the
event that the number obtained is less than 5 . Then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) is:
2
(a)
5
3
(b)
5
(c) 0
(d) 1
[CBSE 2020]

6. A card is picked at random from a pack of playing cards. Given that the picked card is a
queen, the probability of this card to be a card of spade is:
1
(a)
3
4
(b)
13
1
(c)
4
1
(d)
2

[CBSE 2020]

Very Short & Short Qs (1 -3 marks)

7. 𝐴 and 𝐵 throw a die alternately till one of them gets ' 6 ' and wins the game. Find their
respective probabilities of winning, if 𝐴 starts the game first.
[CBSE 2023]

8. Three friends go for coffee. They decide who will pay the bill, by each tossing a coin and then
letting the "odd person" pay. There is no odd person if all three tosses produce the
same result. It there is no odd person in the first round, they make a second round of tosses and
they continue to do so until there is an odd person. What is the probability that exactly three
rounds of tosses are made?
[CBSE SQP 2022]
1 7 1
9. Events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are such that 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = and 𝑃( not 𝐴 or not 𝐵) = . State whether A
2 12 4
and B are independent?
[CBSE Term-2 2022]

10. A box 𝐵1 contains 1 white ball and 3 red balls. Another box 𝐵2 contains 2 white balls and 3 red
balls. If one ball is drawn at random from each of the boxes 𝐵1 and 𝐵2 , then find the probability
that the two balls drawn are of the same colour.
[CBSE Term-2 2022]

11. Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards one-by-one without replacement. What is
the probability of getting first card red and second card jack?
[CBSE Term-2 SQP 2022]

12. Two cards are drawn at random and oneby-one without replacement from a well shuffled pack of
52 playing cards. Find the probability that one card is red and other is black.
 [CBSE 2020]

13. A bag contains 3 black, 4 red and 2 green balls. If three balls are drawn simultaneously at random,
then the probability that the balls are of different colours is
. [CBSE 2020]

14. The probability of finding a green signal on a busy crossing is 30%. What is the probability of
finding a green signal on on two consecutive days out of three?
[CBSE 2020]

15. A speaks truth in 80% cases and B speak truth in 90% cases. In what percentage of cases are they
likely to agree with each other in stating the same fact?
[CBSE SQP 2020]

16. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.3 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.6, then find
P(B ∩ 𝐴).
[CBSE 2020]

17. Out of 8 outstanding students of a school, in which there are 3 boys and 5 girls, a team of 4
students is to be selected for a quiz competition. Find the probability that 2 boys and 2 girls are
selected.
[CBSE 2019]

18. Prove that if 𝐸 and 𝐹 are independent events, then the events 𝐸 and 𝐹 are also independent.
[CBSE 2019]

19. 12 cards numbered 1 to 12 (one number on one card), are placed in a box and mixed up
thoroughly. Then a card is drawn at random from the box. If it is known that the number on the
drawn card is greater than 5, find the probability that the card bears an odd number.
[CBSE 2019]

20. A die marked 1, 2, 3 in red and 4, 5, 6 in green is tossed. Let 𝐴 be the event, 'the number is even',
and 𝐵 be the event, 'the number is red'. Are A and B independent?
[CBSE 2019]

21. A black and a red die are rolled together. Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8,
given that the red die resulted in a number less than 4.
[CBSE 2018]

22. Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two children,
what is the conditional probability that both are girls? Given that
(A) the youngest is a girl.

(B) at least one is a girl.

[CBSE 2014]
23. A bag contains 3 red and 7 black balls. Two balls are drawn one by one at a time at random
without replacement. If second drawn ball is red then what is the probability the first drawn ball is
also red? [CBSE 2014]

24. A couple has two children. Find the probability that both are boys, it is known that:

(A) one of the children is a boy

(B) older child is a boy.

[CBSE 2014]

Long Qs (4 – 5 marks)
25. In a game of Archery, each ring of the Archery target is valued. The centre most ring is worth 10
points and rest of the rings are allotted points 9 to 1 in sequential order moving outwards.
Archer 𝐴 is likely to earn 10 points with a probability of 0.8 and Archer B is likely to earn 10
points with a probability of 0.9.

Based on the above information, answer the following questions:

If both of them hit the Archery target, then find the probability that

(A) Exactly one of them earns 10 points.

(B) both of them earn 10 points.

[CBSE Term-2 2022]

1 1
26. Probability of solving a specific problem independently by 𝐴 and 𝐵 are and respectively. If
2 3
both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that:
(A) the problem is solved.
 (B) exactly one of them solves the problem.

[CBSE 2018]

27. A and B throw a pair of dice alternately. A wins the game if he gets a total of 7 and 𝐵 wins the
game if he gets a total of 10. If 𝐴 starts the game, then find the probability that 𝐵 wins.
[CBSE 2016]
2 1
28. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events such that 𝑃(𝐴‾ ∩ 𝐵) = and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵‾) = , then find
15 6
𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐵).
[CBSE 2015]

29. Consider the experiment of tossing a coin. If the coin shows head, toss it again, but if it shows tail,
then throw a die. Find the conditional probability of the event that 'the die shows a number greater
than 4' given that 'there is atleast one tail'. [CBSE 2014]

2. BAYES' THEOREM, RANDOM VARIABLE AND ITS PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION

Case Based Qs
30. In an Office three employees Jayant, S onia and Oliver process incoming copies of a certain form.
Jayant processes 50% of the forms, Sonia processes 20% and Oliver the remaining 30% of the
forms. Jayant has an error rate of 0.06, Sonia has an error rate of 0.04 and Oliver has an error rate
of 0.03.

Based on the above information, answer the following questions:

(A) Find the probability that Sonia processed the form and committed an error.
(B) Find the total probability of committing an error in processing the form.

(C) The manager of the Company wants to do a quality check. During inspection, he selects a
form at random from the days output of processed form. If the form selected at random has an
error, find the probability that the form is not processed by Jayant.

OR
 Let E be the event of committing an error in processing the form and let 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 and 𝐸3 , be the
events that Jayant, Sonia and Oliver processed the form. Find the value of 3 1 𝑃(𝐸 ∣ 𝐸).

[CBSE SQP 2023]

31. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes: those who are
accident prone and those who are not. The company's statistics show that an accident-prone
person will have an accident at sometime within a fixed one-year period with probability 0.6,
whereas this probability
is 0.2 for a person who is not accident prone. The company knows that 20 percent of the
population is accident prone.

(A) What is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within a year of
purchasing a policy?

(B) Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy. What is
the probability that he or she is accident prone?

[CBSE Term-2 SQP 2022]

32. There are two antiaircraft guns, named as 𝐴 and 𝐵. The probabilities that the shell fired from
them hits an airplane are 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. Both of them fired one shell at an airplane at
the same time.

(A) What is the probability that the shell fired from exactly one of them hit the plane?

(B) If it is known that the shell fired from exactly one of them hit the plane, then what is the
probability that it was fired from B?
 [CBSE SQP 2022]

33. Recent studies suggest that roughly 12% of the world population is left handed.

Depending upon the parents, the chances of having a left handed child are as follows:

𝐴 : When both father and mother are left handed:

Chances of left handed child is 24%.

𝐵 : When father is right handed and mother is left handed:

Chances of left handed child is 22%.

C : When father is left handed and mother is right handed:

Chances of left handed child is 17%.

: When both father and mother are right handed:

Chances of left handed child is 9%.

1
Assuming that 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃( ) = 𝑃( ) =
4

and denotes the event that child is left handed.

(A) Find 𝑃( / )

(B) Find 𝑃( ‾ /𝐴)

(C) Find 𝑃(𝐴/ )

Find the probability that a randomly selected child is left handed given that exactly one of the
parents is left handed.

[CBSE 2023]

Very Short & Short Qs (1 - 3 marks)

34. Two balls are drawn at random one by one with replacement from an urn containing equal
number of red balls and green balls. Find the probability distribution of number of red balls. Also,
find the mean of random variable.
 [CBSE 2023]

35. The random variable has a probability distribution 𝑃( ) of the following form, where ' ' is
some real number:
, if = 0
2 , if = 1
𝑃( ) =
3 , if = 2
0, otherwise

(A) Determine the value of .

(B) Find 𝑃( < 2).

(C) Find 𝑃( > 2).

[CBSE 2023]

36. A bag contains 1 red and 3 white balls. Find the probability distribution of the number of red balls
if 2 balls are drawn at random from the bag one-by-one without replacement.
[CBSE Term-2 SQP 2022]

37. There are two bags. Bag I contain 1 red and 3 white balls, and Bag II contains 3 red and 5 white
balls. A bag is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. Find the probability that the ball so
drawn red in colour.
[CBSE Term-2 2022]

38. A coin is tossed twice. The following table shows the probability distribution of number of tails:
0 1 2

𝑃( ) 6 9

(A) Find the value of .

(B) Is the coin tossed biased or unbiased? Justify your answer. [CBSE Term-2 2022]

39. Three rotten apples are mixed with seven fresh apples. Find the probability distribution of the
number of rotten apples, if three apples are drawn one by one with replacement. Find the mean of
the number of rotten apples.
[CBSE 2020]

40. In a shop , 30 tins of ghee of type 𝐴 and 40 tins of ghee of type B which look alike, are kept for
sale. While in shop , similar 50 tins of ghee of type 𝐴 and 60 tins of ghee of type 𝐵 are there.
One tin of ghee is purchased from one of the randomly selected shop and is found to be of type B.
Find the probability that it is purchased from shop Y. [CBSE 2020]

41. Find the probability distribution of , the number of heads in a simultaneous toss of two coins.

[CBSE 2019]
42. Of the students in a school, it is know that 30% have 100% attendance and 70% students are
irregular. Previous year results report that 70% of all students who have 100% attendance attain
A grade and 10% irregular students attain A grade in their annual examination. At the end of the
year, one student is chosen at random from the school and he was found to have an A grade. What
is the probability that the student has 100% attendance? Is regularity required only school?
Justify your answer.
[CBSE 2017]

43. Three persons 𝐴, 𝐵 and apply for a job of manager in a private company. Chances of their
selection (A, B, C) are in the ratio 1: 2: 4. The probabilities that 𝐴, 𝐵 and can introduce changes
to improve profits of the company are 0.8,0.5 and 0.3 respectively. If the changes does not take
place, find the probability that it is due to the appointment of C.
[CBSE 2016]

44. Three cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find
the probability distribution of the number of spades. Hence, find the mean of the distribution.
[CBSE 2015]

45. A bag A contains 4 black and 6 red balls and bag 𝐵 contains 7 black and 3 red balls. A die is
thrown. If 1 or 2 appears on it, then bag 𝐴 is choosen, otherwise bag B. If two balls are drawn at
random (without replacement) from the selected bag, find the probability of one of them being red
and another black.
[CBSE 2015]

Long Qs (4 – 5 marks)
46. There are two boxes, namely box-I and box-II. Box-I contains 3 red and 6 black balls. Box-II
contains 5 red and 5 black balls. One of the two boxes is selected at random and a ball is drawn at
random. The ball drawn is found to be red. Find the probability that this red ball comes out from
box-II. [CBSE Term-2 2022]

47. An insurance company insured 3000 cyclists, 6000 scooter drivers, and 9000 car drivers. The
probability of an accident involving a cyclist, a scooter driver, and a car driver are 0.3,0.05 and
0.02 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that
he is a cyclist?

[CBSE 2019]

48. A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C. The first operator A produces 1% of
defective items, whereas the other two operators 𝐵 and produces 5% and 7% defective items
respectively. 𝐴 is on the job for 50% of the time, B is on the job 30% of time and on the job for
20% of the time. All the items are put into one stockpile and then one item is chosen at random
from this and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was produced by 𝐴 ?
[CBSE 2019]

49. Often it is taken that a truthful person commands more respect in the society. A man is known to
speak the truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability
that it is actually a six. Do you also agree that the value of truthfulness leads to more respect in the
society?
 [CBSE 2017]

50. A bag contains 4 balls. Two balls are drawn at random (without replacement) and are found to be
white. What is the probability that all balls in the bag are white?
[CBSE 2016]

51. A class has 15 students whose ages are 14,17,15,14,21,17,19,20,16,18,20,17, 16,19 and 20
years. One student is selected in such a manner that each has the same chance of being chosen and
the age of the selected student is recorded. What is the probability distribution of the random
variable X? Find the mean of X. [CBSE 2014]
52. In a game, a man wins a rupee for a six and loses a rupee for any other number when a fair die is
thrown. The man decided to throw a die thrice but to quit as and when he gets a six. Find the
expected value of the amount he wins loses.
[CBSE 2014]

53. Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first six positive integers.
Let X denote the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the probability distribution of the
random variable X and hence find the mean of the distribution.
[CBSE 2014]
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
INTRODUCTION ABOUT PROBABILITIES

(Practice Sheet)
1 Let E and F be events of a sample space S of an experiment, if P(S|F) = P(F|F) then value
of P(S|F) is ________.
A. 0 B. -1
C. 1 D. 2
2 Given that E and F are events such that P(E) = 0.6, P(F) = 0.3 and P(E ∩ F) = 0.2, then
P(E|F)?
2 1
A. B.
3 3
3 1
C. D.
4 4
3 𝟓 𝟕 𝟑
If 𝐏(𝐀) = , 𝐏(𝐁) = 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏(𝐀 ∩ 𝐁) = , evaluate P(A|B).
𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑
1 3
A. B.
7 7
3 2
C. D.
5 7
4 What does probability measure?
A. The certainty of an event B. The range of possible outcomes
C. The likelihood of an event occurring D. The total number of outcomes
5 Which of this represents the multiplication theorem of probability?
B B
A. P(A ∩ B) = P(B) P ( ) B. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P ( )
A B
A A
C. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P ( ) D. P(A ∩ B) = P(B) P ( )
A B
6 A bag contains 9 identical balls, of which are 4 are blue and 6 are green. Three balls are
taken out randomly from the bag after one another. Find the probability that all three balls
are blue?
7 A bag contains 3 red, 2 white and 4 green balls. What is the probability of drawing the second
ball to be green if the first ball drawn is red? The balls are not replaced in the bag.
8 A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers rising is noted to be 6. Calculate the is the
conditional probability that the number 4 has arrived at least once?
1
9 The probability of solving the specific problem independently by the persons’ A and B are
2
1
and respectively. In case, if both the persons try to solve the problem independently, then
3
calculate the probability that the problem is solved.
10 What is the purpose of a probability tree? Explain how it helps in visualizing outcomes.
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

(Practice Sheet)
1 𝟕 𝟔 𝟖
If 𝐏(𝐀) = , 𝐏(𝐁) = 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏(𝐀 ∪ 𝐁) = , then P(A|B) = ________.
𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟏
3 2
A. B.
5 3
1
C.
2
D. 1
2 What is conditional probability?
B. The probability of an event occurring
A. The probability of two independent
based on the occurrence of another
events occurring simultaneously.
event.
C. The probability of an event occurring on D. The probability of drawing a red card from
a specific day of the week. a deck of playing cards.
3 When is the conditional probability P(A|B) undefined?
A. When event A and event B are B. When P(A) = 0.
independent.
C. When P(B) = 0. D. When P(A) = 1.
4 𝟏
If 𝐏(𝐀) = , P(B) = 0, then what will be the value of P(A|B)?
𝟓
A. 0 B. 1
1
C. Not defined D.
5
5 A bag contains 3 red, 2 white and 4 green balls. What is the probability of drawing the
second ball to be green if the first ball drawn is red? The balls are not replaced in the bag.
A. 0.82 B. 0.91
C. 1.23 D. 0.5
6 A bag contains 4 red and 7 blue balls. What is the probability of drawing a blue ball if the
first ball drawn is red? The balls drawn are replaced into the bag.
7 Ten numbered cards are there from 1 to 15, and two cards a chosen at random such that the
sum of the numbers on both the cards is even. Find the probability that the chosen cards are
odd-numbered.
4
8 The probability of a student passing in science is and the of the student passing in both
5
1
science and maths is . What is the probability of that student passing in maths knowing that
2
he passed in science?
9 Two dice are rolled, if it is known that atleast one of the dice always shows 4, find the
probability that the numbers appeared on the dice have a sum 8.
10 A fair coin is tossed twice such that E: event of having both head and tail, and F: event of
having atmost one tail. Find P(E), P(F) and P(E|F)
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY

(Practice Sheet)
1 In a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability of drawing a red card (hearts or diamonds)?
1 1
A. B.
13 4
1 26
C. D.
2 52
2 If P(A) = 0.6 and P(B|A) = 0.2, what is P(A ∩ B)?
A. 0.1 B. 0.2
C. 0.12 D. 0.6
3 Which of this represents the multiplication theorem of probability?
B B
A. P(A ∩ B) = P(B)P ( ) B. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P ( )
A A
B A
C. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P ( ) D. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P ( )
B A
4 A box contains 5 brown and 7 black pebbles. What is the probability of drawing a brown
pebble if the first pebble drawn is black? The balls drawn are not replaced in the box.
5 8
A. B.
11 11
4 14
C. D.
18 11
5 If P(A|B) = 0.5 and P(B|A) = 0.4, what is the relationship between events A and B?
A. A and B are mutually exclusive. B. A and B are independent.
C. A and B are dependent. D. A and B are complementary.
6 An urn contains 20 red and 10 blue balls. Two balls are drawn from a bag one after the
other without replacement. What is the probability that both the balls are drawn are red?
7 What is the law for multiplication?
8 Mina has 6 different skirts, 3 different scarfs and 7 different tops to wear. She has exactly one
orange scarf, exactly one blue skirt, and exactly one black top. If Mina randomly selects each
item of clothing, find the probability that she will wear those clothing’s for the outfit.
9 Two cards are chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability of selecting a jack and a Spade from the deck?
10 A box consists of 5 yellow, 12 red and 8 blue balls. If 5 balls are drawn from this box one after
the other without replacement, find the probability that the 5 balls are all yellow balls.
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

11 PROBABILITY
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

(Practice Sheet)
1 Which of the following best describes independent events?
B. Events that cannot occur at the same
A. Events that always occur together.
time.
C. Events where the outcome of one does
D. Events that are certain to occur.
not affect the other.
2 Mutually exclusive events have a probability of:
A. 0 B. 0.5
C. 1 D. Varies depending on the events.
3 What are independent events?
A. If the outcome of one event does not B. If the outcome of one event affects the
affect the outcome of another. outcome of another.
C. Any one of the outcomes of one event D. Any one of the outcomes of one event
does not affect the outcome of another. does affect the outcome of another.
4 A dice is thrown twice, what is the probability of getting two 3’s?
1 1
A. B.
66 16
2 1
C. D.
36 36
5 What is the formula for independent events?
A. P(AB) = P(A) P(B) B. P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B)
C. P(A + B) = P(A) P(B) D. P(A - B) = P(A) P(B)
6 What is the probability of obtaining 4 heads in a row when a coin is tossed?
7 What is the probability of a coin landing on the tail and the dice showing 2 when a coin is
tossed and dice is thrown?
8 A bag contains 3 red, 2 white and 4 green balls. What is the probability of drawing the second
ball to be green if the first ball drawn is red? The balls are replaced in the bag.
1 3
9 Given that the events A and B are such that P(A) = , P(A ∪ B) = , and P(B) = p. Find p
2 5
if they are-
(i) mutually exclusive
(ii) independent
10 Let A and B be two independent events, where P(A) = 0.1 and P(B) = 0.8. Find P(A and B), P(A
or B), P( B not A), and P(neither A nor B).
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
THREE EVENTS ARE MUTUALLY INDEPENDENT

(Practice Sheet)
1 Two events A and B are said to be mutually independent if:
A. P(A∩B) = P(A) + P(B) B. P(A∩B) = P(A) - P(B)
C. P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B) D. P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)
2 Three events A, B, and C are said to be mutually independent if which of the following
conditions hold?
A. P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B) B. P(A∩C) = P(A) × P(C)
C. P(B∩C) = P(B) × P(C) D. All of the above
3 For events A, B, and C to be mutually independent, which of the following must be true?
A. P(A∩B∩C) = P(A) × P(B) × P(C) B. P(A∩B∩C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
C. P(A∩B∩C) = P(A∪B∪C) D. P(A∩B∩C) = P(A) × P(B + C)
4 If two events are independent, then
B. the sum of their probabilities must be
A. They must be mutually exclusive
equal to 1
C. (a) and (b) both are correct D. None of the above is correct
5 If E and F are independent events, then;
P(E) P(E)
A. P(E ∩ F) = B. P(E ∩ F) =
P(F) P(F)
C. P(E∩F) = P(E) × P(F) D. None of the above
6 Three coins are tossed at the same time. We say A as the event of receiving at least 2 heads.
Likewise, B denotes the event of getting no heads and C is the event of getting heads on the
second coin. Which of these is mutually exclusive?
7 If A and B are two independent events, then A and B’ is:
8 Let X and Y are two independent events such that P(X) = 0.3 and P(Y) = 0.7. Find P(X and Y),
P(X or Y), P(Y not X), and P(neither X nor Y).
9 Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Let A be the event of getting sum less than 4 and B be
the event of getting sum not more than 4. Find set “B and not A”.
10 A card is chosen at random from a deck of cards and then replaced, a second card is chosen.
What is the probability of choosing a four and then a queen?
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
BAY’S THEOREM

(Practice Sheet)
1 What is Bayes' theorem primarily used for?
A. Calculating the probability of a specific B. Finding the total number of possible
event. outcomes.
C. Determining the probability of taking a
D. Analyzing the partition of a sample space.
red ball from a bag.
2 In Bayes' theorem, what is the formula for the probability of event A given event B has
occurred?
P(B|A) × P(A) P(A)
A. P(A|B) = B. P(A|B) =
P(B) P(B|A) × P(B)
P(A) × P(B) P(A)
C. P(A|B) = D. P(A|B) =
P(B|A) P(B)
3 Method in which the previously calculated probabilities are revised with values of new
probability is called __________.
A. Revision theorem B. Bayes theorem
C. Dependent theorem D. Updating theorem
4 Previous probabilities in Bayes Theorem that are changed with the new available
information are called __________.
A. Independent probabilities B. Dependent probabilities
C. Interior probabilities D. Posterior probabilities
5 What is the Total Probability Theorem primarily used for?
A. Calculating the probability of an event A
B. Deriving Bayes' theorem.
directly.
D. Dividing probability calculations into
C. Finding the intersection of two events.
separate components.
6 A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six.
Find the probability that it is actually a six.
7 How do you know when to use Bay’s theorem?
8 A bag I contains 4 white and 6 black balls while another Bag II contains 4 white and 3 black
balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags, and it is found to be black. Find the
probability that it was drawn from Bag I.
9 A pair of coins is tossed once. Find the probability of showing at least one head.
10 A person plays a game of tossing a coin thrice. For each head he is given XI by the organiser
of the game and for each tail he has to give ₹1.50 to the organiser. Let ‘X’ denote the amount
gained or lost by the person. Show that ‘X’ is a random variable and exhibit it as a function
on the sample space of the experiment.
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
RANDOM VARIABLE

(Practice Sheet)
1 What is a random variable?
A. A function that assigns a numerical value B. A constant value assigned to a specific
to each outcome in a sample space. outcome.
C. A variable that changes continuously D. A value that is generated randomly
over time. without any rules.
2 Which of the following statements is true about discrete random variables?
B. They have a continuous probability
A. They can take on an infinite set of values.
distribution.
C. They assume only specified values in an
D. They are always continuous variates.
interval.
3 Which of the following is an example of a continuous random variable?
A. The number of students in a classroom. B. The outcome of rolling a fair six-sided die.
C. The temperature in degrees Celsius. D. The number of cars in a parking lot.
4 Calculate the mean of the number obtained on rolling an unbiased die.
A. 1 B. 3.5
C. 4 D. 6
5 What does the variance of a random variable measure?
A. The most probable value in the B. How spread-out the values are around the
distribution. mean.
C. The range of possible values. D. The probability of getting a specific value.
6 Assume that the pair of dice is thrown, and the random variable X is the sum of numbers that
appears on two dice. Find the mean or the expectation of the random variable X.
7 Find the mean value for the continuous random variable, f(x) = x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 2.
8 What are the properties of a random variable?
9 What is a random variable?
10 A man is known to speak the truth 2 out of 3 times. He throws a die and reports that the
number obtained is a four. Find the probability that the number obtained is actually a four.
Page 1
Class 12th Mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
BERNOULLI TRAILS

(Practice Sheet)
1 What are the conditions for a set of experiments to be considered Bernoulli trials?
A. A finite number of trials. B. Multiple possible outcomes in each trial.
C. Dependent trials. D. Equal probabilities of success and failure.
2 In a Bernoulli trial, what is the probability of success denoted as if the probability of
failure is q?
A. p = q B. p = 1 - q
1
C. p = q2 D. p =
q
3 If you draw a ball from a bag with replacement, what is the probability of success (getting
a white ball) in each trial when there are 10 white and 10 black balls?
10 1
A. p = B. p =
20 4
1 2
C. p = D. p =
2 3
4 If you draw a ball from a bag without replacement, what happens to the probability of
success in each trial as you proceed?
A. The probability of success remains the B. The probability of success decreases.
same.
C. The probability of success increases. D. The probability of success becomes zero.
5 In the binomial expansion of (a + b)n, what does each term represent?
A. The number of trials. B. The probability of success.
C. The number of successes. D. The probability distribution of the random
variable X.
6 Calculate the probability of getting exactly five heads when a coin is tossed 10 times
7 The Poisson distribution comes under which probability distribution?
8 What is a Bernoulli Trial?
9 It is known that 10% of certain articles manufactured are defective. What is the probability
that in a random sample of 12 such articles, 9 are defective?
10 James draws balls 5 times from a bag of 10 balls which includes 5 red and 5 green balls with
replacement. Check if this is an example of the Bernoulli trials.
 P

Chapter 13:
Exercise 13.3 Probability
Short Answer (S.A.)
1. For a loaded die, the probabilities of outcomes are given as under:
P(1) = P(2) = 0.2, P(3) = P(5) = P(6) = 0.1 and P(4) = 0.3.
The die is thrown two times. Let A and B be the events, ‘same number each time’, and ‘a total
score is 10 or more’, respectively. Determine whether or not A and B are independent.
Solution:

Given that a loaded die is thrown such that

P(1) = P(2) = 0.2, P(3) = P(5) = P(6) = 0.1 and P(4) = 0.3 and die is thrown two times. Also given that:
A = same number each time and
B = Total score is 10 or more.
So, P(A) = [P(1, 1) + P(2, 2) + P(3, 3) + P(4, 4) + P(5, 5) + P(6, 6)]
= P(1).P(1) + P(2).P(2) + P(3).P(3) + P(4).P(4) + P(5).P(5) + P(6).P(6)
= 0.2 x 0.2 + 0.2 x 0.2 + 0.1 x 0.1 + 0.3 x 0.3 + 0.1 x 0.1 + 0.1 x 0.1
= 0.04 + 0.04 + 0.01 + 0.09 + 0.01 + 0.01 = 0.20
Now, B = [(4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)]
P(B) = [P(4).P(6) + P(6).P(4) + P(5).P(5) + P(5).P(6) + P(6).P(5) + P(6).P(6)]
= 0.3 x 0.1 + 0.1 x 0.3 + 0.1 x 0.1 + 0.1 x 0.1 + 0.1 x 0.1 + 0.1 x 0.1
= 0.03 + 0.03 + 0.01 + 0.01 + 0.01 + 0.01 = 0.10
A and B both events will be independent if
P(A ⋂ B) = P(A).P(B) …. (i)
And, here (A ⋂ B) = {(5, 5), (6, 6)}
So, P(A ⋂ B) = P(5, 5) + P(6, 6) = P(5).P(5) + P(6).P(6)
= 0.1 x 0.1 + 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.02
From equation (i) we get,
0.02 = 0.20 x 0.10
0.02 = 0.02
Therefore, A and B are independent events.

2. Refer to Exercise 1 above. If the die were fair, determine whether or not the events A and B are
independent.
Solution:

According to the solution of exercise 1, we have

A = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}and n(6) and n(S) = 6 x 6 = 36
So, P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 6/36 = 1/6
And, B = {(4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}; n(B) = 6 and n(S) = 36
So, P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = 6/36 = 1/6
Now, A ⋂ B = {(5, 5), (6, 6)}
So, P(A ⋂ B) = 2/36 = 1/18
Hence, if A and B are not independent, then
P(A ⋂ B) ≠ P(A).P(B)
1/18 ≠ 1/6 x 1/6 ⇒ 1/18 ≠ 1/36
Therefore, A and B are not independent events.
3. The probability that at least one of the two events A and B occurs is 0.6. If A and B occur
simultaneously with probability 0.3, evaluate
Solution:

W.k.t, A ⋃ B denotes that atleast one of the events occurs and A ⋂ B denotes that two events occur
simultaneously.

Therefore, the required answer is 1.1.

4. A bag contains 5 red marbles and 3 black marbles. Three marbles are drawn one by one
without replacement. What is the probability that at least one of the three marbles drawn be
black, if the first marble is red?
Solution:

Let red marbles be presented with R and black marble with B. Also, let E be the event that at least one of
the three marbles drawn be black when the first marble is red.
Now, the following three conditions are possible, if atleast one of the three marbles drawn be black and
the first marble is red.
(i) E1: 2nd ball is black and 3rd ball is red
(ii) E2: 2nd ball is black and 3rd ball is also black
(iii) E3: 2nd ball is red and 3rd ball is black
The probabilities of the above events are:

Therefore, the required probability is 25/56.

5. Two dice are thrown together and the total score is noted. The events E, F and G are ‘a total of
4’, ‘a total of 9 or more’, and ‘a total divisible by 5’, respectively. Calculate P(E), P(F) and P(G)
and decide which pairs of events, if any, are independent.
Solution:

If two dice are thrown together, we have

n(S) = 36
Now, let’s consider:
E = A total of 4 = {(2, 2), (1, 3), (3, 1)} ⇒ n(E) = 3
F = A total of 9 or more
= {(3, 6), (6, 3), (5, 4), (4, 5), (5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
So, n(F) = 10
G = A total divisible by 5
= {(1, 4), (4, 1), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 5)}
So, n(G) = 7
It’s seen that (E ⋂ F) = Ø and (E ⋂ G) = Ø
And, (F ⋂ G) = {(4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 5)}
⇒ n(F ⋂ G) = 3 and (E ⋂ F⋂ G) = Ø
Hence, the probabilities if the events are:

As, P(F ⋂ G) ≠ P(F). P(G)

Therefore, there is no pair of independent events.

6. Explain why the experiment of tossing a coin three times is said to have binomial distribution.
Solution:

As the random variable X takes 0, 1, 2, 3, …, n is said to be binomial distribution having parameters n

and p, if the probability is given by
P(X = r) = nCr pr qn-r, where q = 1 – p and r = 0, 1, 2, 3, …
Similarly, in case of tossing a coin 3 times, we have
n = 3 and X has the values 0, 1, 2, 3 with p = ½, q = ½.
Therefore, it is said that the experiment of tossing a coin three times have binomial distribution.

7. A and B are two events such that P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/3 and P(A  B) = 1/4.
Find:
(i) P(A|B) (ii) P(B|A) (iii) P(A'|B) (iv) P(A'|B')
Solution:

Given, P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/3 and P(A  B) = 1/4.

P(A’) = 1 – 1/2 = 1/2, P(B’) = 1 – 1/3 = 2/3
Now,
8. Three events A, B and C have probabilities 2/5, 1/3 and ½ respectively. Given that P(A C) =
1/5 and P(B  C) = ¼, find the values of P(C | B) and P(A' C').
Solution:

Given, P(A) = 2/5, P(B) = 1/3 and P(C) = ½

P(A  C) = 1/5 and P(B  C) = ¼
So, P(C/B) = P(B  C)/ P(B) = (¼)/ (1/3) = ¾
P(A’  C’) = 1 – P(A ⋃ C)
= 1 – [P(A) + P(C) – P(A  C)]
= 1 – [2/5 + ½ - 1/5] = 1 – 7/10 = 3/10
Therefore, the required probabilities are ¾ and 3/10.

9. Let E1 and E2 be two independent events such that p(E1) = p1 and P(E2) = p2. Describe in words
of the events whose probabilities are:
(i) p1 p2 (ii) (1–p1) p2 (iii) 1 – (1 – p1)(1 – p2) (iv) p1 + p2 – 2p1p2
Solution:

Here, P(E1) = p1 and P(E2) = p2

Now, its clearly seen that either E1 or E2 occurs but not both.

10. A discrete random variable X has the probability distribution given as below:
X 0.5 1 1.5 2
P(X) k k2 2k2 k
(i) Find the value of k
(ii) Determine the mean of the distribution.
Solution:

For a probability distribution, we know that if Pi ≥ 0

11. Prove that

(i) P(A) = P(A B) + P(A B )
(ii) P(A B) = P(A B) + P(A B ) + P( A  B)
Solution:

12. If X is the number of tails in three tosses of a coin, determine the standard
deviation of X.
Solution:

Given, X = 0, 1, 2, 3
P(X = r) = nCr pr qn-r
Where n = 3, p = ½, q = ½ and r = 0, 1, 2, 3
P(X = 0) = ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/8
P(X = 1) = 3 x ½ x ½ x ½ = 3/8
P(X = 2) = 3 x ½ x ½ x ½ = 3/8
P(X = 3) = ½ x ½ x ½ = 3/8
The probability distribution table is:
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
Now,
E(X) = 0 + 1 x 3/8 + 2 x 3/8 + 3 x 1/8 = 3/8 + 6/8 + 3/8 = 12/8 = 3/2
E(X2) = 0 + 1 x 3/8 + 4 x 3/8 + 9 x 1/8 = 3/8 + 12/8 + 9/8 = 24/8 = 3
W.k.t, Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2 = 3 – (3/2)2 = 3 – (3/2)2 = 3 – 9/4 = ¾
Thus, the standard deviation = Var(X) = √(¾) = √3/2

13. In a dice game, a player pays a stake of Re1 for each throw of a die. She receives Rs 5 if the die
shows a 3, Rs 2 if the die shows a 1 or 6, and nothing otherwise. What is the player’s expected
profit per throw over a long series of throws?
Solution:

Let’s take X to be the random variable of profit per throw.

X -1 1 4
P(X) 1/2 1/3 1/6
As, she loses Rs 1 for giving any od 2, 4, 5.
So, P(X = -1) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 3/6 = ½
P(X = 1) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3 [Since, die showing 1 or 6]
P(X = 4) = 1/6 [Since, die shows only a 3]
Thus, the player’s expected profit = Ʃp1xi
= -1 x ½ + 1 x 1/3 + 4 x 1/6 = -1/2 + 1/3 + 2/3 = ½ = Rs 0.50

14. Three dice are thrown at the same time. Find the probability of getting three two’s, if it is
known that the sum of the numbers on the dice was six.
Solution:

Given that the dice is thrown three times

So, the sample space n(S) = 63 = 216
Let E1 be the event when the sum of number on the dice was 6 and E2 be the event when three 2’s occur.
E1 = {(1, 1, 4), (1, 2, 3), (1, 4, 1), (2, 1, 3), (2, 2, 2), (2, 3, 1), (3, 1, 2), (3, 2, 1), (4, 1, 1)}
n(E1) =10 and n(E2) = 1 [Since, E2 = (2, 2, 2)]
Thus, P(E2/E1) = P(E1 ⋂ E2)/P(E1) = (1/216)/(10/216) = 1/10.

15. Suppose 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery each for Re 1. First prize is of Rs 3000 and the
second prize is of Rs. 2000. There are three third prizes of Rs. 500 each. If you buy one ticket,
what is your expectation.
Solution:

Let’s take X to be the random variable where X = 0, 500, 2000 and 3000
 X 0 500 2000 3000
P(X) 9995/10000 3/10000 1/10000 1/10000

16. A bag contains 4 white and 5 black balls. Another bag contains 9 white and 7 black balls. A
ball is transferred from the first bag to the second and then a ball is drawn at random from the
second bag. Find the probability that the ball drawn is white.
Solution:

Let’s take W1 and W2 to be two bags containing (4W, 5B) and (9W, 7B) balls respectively.
Let E1 be the event that the transferred ball from the bag W1 to W2 is white and E2 the event that the
transferred ball is black.
And, E be the event that the ball drawn from the second bag is white.
So, the probabilities are:
P(E/E1) = 10/17, P(E/E2) = 9/17
P(E1) = 4/9 and P(E2) = 5/9
Now, P(E) = P(E1).P(E/E1) + P(E2).P(E/E2)
= 4/9 x 10/17 + 5/9 x 9/17 = 40/153 + 45/153 = 85/153 = 5/9
Therefore, the required probability is 5/9.

17. Bag I contains 3 black and 2 white balls, Bag II contains 2 black and 4 white balls. A bag and a
ball is selected at random. Determine the probability of selecting a black ball.
Solution:

Given that:
Bag 1 has 3B, 2W balls and Bag 2 has 2B, 4W balls.
Let E1 = The event that bag 1 is selected
E2 = The event that bag 2 is selected
And, E = The event that a black ball is selected
Now, the probabilities are:

Therefore, the required probability is 7/15.

18. A box has 5 blue and 4 red balls. One ball is drawn at random and not replaced. Its colour is
also not noted. Then another ball is drawn at random. What is the probability of second ball being
blue?
Solution:
Given that the box has 5 blue and 4 red balls.
Let’s consider E1 be the event that first ball drawn is blue and E2 be the event that first ball drawn is red.
And, E is the event that second ball drawn is blue.
Now, the probability of E is:

Therefore, the required probability is 5/9.

19. Four cards are successively drawn without replacement from a deck of 52 playing cards. What
is the probability that all the four cards are kings?
Solution:

Let E1, E2, E3 and E4 be the events that first, second, third and fourth card is King respectively.

Therefore, the required probability is 1/27075.

20. A die is thrown 5 times. Find the probability that an odd number will come up exactly three
times.
Solution:

Here, p = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = ½ ⇒ q = 1 – ½ = ½ and n = 5

Now,
P(x = r) = nCr pr qn – r = 5C3 (1/2)3(1/2)5-3
= [5!/(3!2!)].(1/2)3(1/2)2 = 10.1/8.1/4 = 5/16
Therefore, the required probability is 5/16.

21. Ten coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at least 8 heads?
Solution:

Here we have, n = 10, p = ½ and q = 1 – ½ = ½

P(X ≥ 8) = P(x = 8) + P(x = 9) + P(x = 10)
Therefore, the required probability is 7/128.

22. The probability of a man hitting a target is 0.25. He shoots 7 times. What is the probability of
his hitting at least twice?
Solution:

Here, we have n = 7, p = 0.25 = 25/100 = ¼ and q = 1 – ¼ = ¾

P(X ≥ 2) = 1 – [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)]

Therefore, the required probability is 4547/8192.

23. A lot of 100 watches is known to have 10 defective watches. If 8 watches are selected (one by
one with replacement) at random, what is the probability that there will be at least one defective
watch?
Solution:

Given: Total number of watches = 100 and number of defective watches = 10

So, the probability of selecting a detective watch = 10/100 = 1/10
Now,
n = 8, p = 1/10 and q = 1 - 1/10 = 9/10, r ≥ 1
P(X ≥ 1) = 1 – P(x = 0) = 1 – 8C0 (1/10)0(9/10)8 – 0 = 1 – (9/10)8
Therefore, the required probability is 1 – (9/10)8.

24. Consider the probability distribution of a random variable X:

X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.1 0.25 0.3 0.2 0.15
Calculate: (i) V(X/2) (ii) Variance of X.
Solution:

Given:
X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.1 0.25 0.3 0.2 0.15
We know that: Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
25. The probability distribution of a random variable X is given below:
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) k k/2 k/4 k/8
(i) Determine the value of k.
(ii) Determine P(X  2) and P(X > 2)
(iii) Find P(X  2) + P (X > 2).
Solution:

(i) W.k.t P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 1

⇒ k + k/2 + k/4 + k/8 = 1
(8k + 4k + 2k + k)/8 = 1
15k = 8
Hence, k = 8/15
(ii) P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
= k + k/2 + k/4 = 7k/4 = 7/4 x 8/15 = 14/15
And P(X > 2) = P(X = 3) = k/8 = 1/8 x 8/15 = 1/15
(iii) P(X ≤ 2) + P(X ≥ 2) = 14/15 + 1/15 = (14 + 1)/15 = 15/15 = 1

26. For the following probability distribution determine standard deviation of the random
variable X.
X 2 3 4
P(X) 0.2 0.5 0.3
Solution:

We know that: Standard deviation (S.D.) = √Variance

So, Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
E(X) = 2 x 0.2 + 3 x 0.5 + 4 x 0.3 = 0.4 + 1.5 + 1.2 = 3.1
E(X2) = 4 x 0.2 + 9 x 0.5 + 16 x 0.3 = 0.8 + 4.5 + 4.8 = 10.1
⇒ V(X) = 10.1 – (3.1)2 = 10.1 – 9.61 = 0.49
Therefore, S.D. = √0.49 = 0.7

27. A biased die is such that P(4) = 1/10 and other scores being equally likely. The die
is tossed twice. If X is the ‘number of fours seen’, find the variance of the
random variable X.
Solution:

Here, random variable X = 0, 1, 2

P(X = 2) = P(4).P(4) = 1/10 x 1/10 = 1/100

X 0 1 2
P(X) 81/100 18/100 1/100
Now, we know V(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2

Therefore, the required variance = 0.18.

28. A die is thrown three times. Let X be ‘the number of twos seen’. Find the
expectation of X.
Solution:

Here, we have X = 0, 1, 2, 3 [Since, die is thrown 3 times]

And p = 1/6, q = 5/6
Therefore, the required expression is ½.

29. Two biased dice are thrown together. For the first die P(6) = 1/2, the other scores being equally
likely while for the second die, P(1) = 2/5 and the other scores are equally likely. Find the
probability distribution of ‘the number of ones seen’.
Solution:

Therefore, the required probability distribution is

X 0 1 2
P(X) 0.54 0.42 0.04

30. Two probability distributions of the discrete random variable X and Y are given below.
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1/5 2/5 1/5 1/5
Y 0 1 2 3
P(y) 1/5 3/10 2/5 1/10
Prove that E(Y2) = 2 E(X).
Solution:
The probability distribution of random variable X is
X 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1/5 2/5 1/5 1/5
We know that,

E(X) 0. 1/5 + 1. 2/5 + 2. 1/5 + 3. 1/5 = 0 + 2/5 + 2/5 + 3/5 = 7/5

For the second probability distribution of random variable Y,
Y 0 1 2 3
P( ) 1/5 3/10 2/5 1/10
E(Y2) = 0. 1/5 + 1. 3/10 + 4. 2/5 + 9. 1/10
= 0 + 3/10 + 8/5 + 9/10 = 28/10 = 14/5
Now, E(Y2) = 14/5 and 2 E(X) = 2.7/5 = 14/5
Therefore, E(Y2) = 2E(X)

31. A factory produces bulbs. The probability that any one bulb is defective is 1/50 and they are
packed in boxes of 10. From a single box, find the probability that
(i) none of the bulbs is defective
(ii) exactly two bulbs are defective
(iii) more than 8 bulbs work properly
Solution:

Let’s assume X to be the random variable denoting a bulb to be defective.

Here, n = 10, p = 1/50, q = 1 – 1/50 = 49/50
We know that, P(X = r) = nCr pr qn – r
(i) None of the bulbs is defective, i.e., r = 0
P(x = 0) = 10C0 (1/50)0(49/50)10 – 0 = (49/50)10
(ii) Exactly two bulbs are defective
So, P(x = 2) = 10C2 (1/50)2(49/50)10 – 2
= 45.498/5010 = 45 x (1/50)10 x 498
(iii) More than 8 bulbs work properly
We can say that less than 2 bulbs are defective
P(x < 2) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1)

32. Suppose you have two coins which appear identical in your pocket. You know that one is fair
and one is 2-headed. If you take one out, toss it and get a head, what is the probability that it was a
fair coin?
Solution:
Let’s consider
E1 = Event that the coin is fair
E2 = Event that the coin is 2 headed
And H = Event that the tossed coin gets head.
Now,
P(E1) = ½, P(E2) = ½, P(H/E1) = ½, P(H/E2) = 1
Using Baye’s Theorem, we get

Therefore, the required probability is 1/3.

33. Suppose that 6% of the people with blood group O are left-handed and 10% of those with
other blood groups are left-handed 30% of the people have blood group O. If a left-handed person
is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she will have blood group O?
Solution:

Let’s assume
E1 = The event that a person selected is of blood group O
E2 = The event that the people selected is of other group
And H = The event that selected person is left handed
Now,
P(E1) = 0.30 and P(E2) = 0.70
Further, P(H/E1) = 0.06 and P(H/E2) = 0.10
Using Baye’s Theorem, we have

Therefore, the required probability is 9/44.

34. Two natural numbers r, s are drawn one at a time, without replacement from the set S=1, 2,
3, ...., n . Find Pr  p|s  p , where pS.
Solution:

Given, S = {1, 2, 3, …, n}
So, P(r ≤ p/s ≤ p) = P(P ⋂ S)/ P(S)
= p – 1/n x n/(n – 1)
= (p - 1)/(n - 1)
Therefore, the required probability is (p - 1)/(n - 1).
35. Find the probability distribution of the maximum of the two scores obtained when a die is
thrown twice. Determine also the mean of the distribution.
Solution:

Let X be the random variable scores when a die is thrown twice.

X = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
And S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (2, 2) , (1, 3) , (2, 3) , (3, 1) , (3, 2) , (3, 3) , (3, 4) , (3, 5) , …, (6, 6)}
So,
P(X = 1) = 1/6 . 1/6 = 1/36
P(X = 2) = 1/6 . 1/6 + 1/6 . 1/6 + 1/6 . 1/6 = 3/36
P(X = 3) = 1/6 . 1/6 + 1/6 . 1/6 + 1/6 . 1/6 + 1/6 . 1/6 + 1/6 . 1/6 = 5/36
Similarly,
P(X = 4) = 7/36; P(X = 5) = 9/36 and P(X = 6) = 11/36
Hence, the required distribution is
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 1/36 3/36 5/36 7/36 9/36 11/36

Therefore, the required mean = 161/36.

36. The random variable X can take only the values 0, 1, 2. Given that P(X = 0) = P (X = 1) = p and
that E(X2) = E[X], find the value of p.
Solution:

Given, X = 0, 1, 2 and P(X = 0) = P (X = 1) = p

Let P(X) at X = 2 is x
⇒ p + p + x = 1 ⇒ x = 1 – 2p
Now, we have the following distribution:
X 0 1 2
P(X) p p 1 – 2p
So,
E(X) = 0.p + 1.p + 2(1 – 2p) = p + 2 – 4p = 2 – 3p
And, E(X2) = 0.p + 1.p + 4(1 – 2p) = p + 4 – 8p = 4 – 7p
Also, given E(X) = E(X2)
2 – 3p = 4 – 7p
4p = 2
p=½
Therefore, the required value of p is ½.
37. Find the variance of the distribution:
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 1/6 5/18 2/9 1/6 1/9 1/18
Solution:

We know that,
Variance(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2

Therefore, the required variance is 665/324.

38. A and B throw a pair of dice alternately. A wins the game if he gets a total of 6 and B wins if
she gets a total of 7. It A starts the game, find the probability of winning the game by A in third
throw of the pair of dice.
Solution:

Let’s take A1 to be the event of getting a total of 6

A1 = {(2, 4), (4, 2), (1, 5), (5, 1), (3, 3)}
And, B1 be the event of getting a total of 7
B1 = {(2, 5), (5, 2), (1, 6), (6, 1), (3, 4), (4, 3)}
Let P(A1) is the probability, if A wins in a throw = 5/36
And P(B1) is the probability, if B wins in a throw = 1/6
Therefore, the required probability of wining A in his third throw

39. Two dice are tossed. Find whether the following two events A and B are independent:
A = (x, y) : x + y = 11 B = (x, y) : x  5
where (x, y) denotes a typical sample point.
Solution:

Given, two events A and B are independent such that A = (x, y) : x + y = 11 B = (x, y) : x  5
Now,
A = {(5, 6), (6, 5)}
B = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6), (3, 1), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
(4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6,
5), (6, 6)}
n(A) = 2, n(B) = 30 and n(A ⋂ B) = 1
So, P(A) = 2/36 = 1/18 and P(B) = 30/36 = 5/6
Now,
P(A).P(B) = 1/18. 5/6 = 5/108 and P(A ⋂ B) 1/36
As P(A). P(B) ≠ P(A ⋂ B)
Therefore, events A and B are not independent.

40. An urn contains m white and n black balls. A ball is drawn at random and is put back into the
urn along with k additional balls of the same colour as that of the ball drawn. A ball is again
drawn at random. Show that the probability of drawing a white ball now does not depend on k.
Solution:

Let’s consider A to be the event of having m white and n black balls

E1 = First ball drawn of white colour
E2 = First ball drawn of black colour
E3 = Second ball drawn of white colour

Therefore, the probability if drawing a white ball does not depend upon k.

Long Answer (L.A.)

41. Three bags contain a number of red and white balls as follows:
Bag 1 : 3 red balls, Bag 2 : 2 red balls and 1 white ball
Bag 3 : 3 white balls.
The probability that bag i will be chosen and a ball is selected from it is i/6, i = 1, 2, 3. What is the
probability that
(i) a red ball will be selected? (ii) a white ball is selected?
Solution:

Given:
Bag 1 : 3 red balls,
Bag 2 : 2 red balls and 1 white ball
Bag 3 : 3 white balls
Now, let E1, E2 and E3 be the events of choosing Bag 1, Bag 2 and Bag 3 respectively and a ball is
drawn from it.
And, we have
P(E1) = 1/6, P(E2) = 2/6 and P(E3) = 3/6

Therefore, the required probabilities are 7/18 and 11/18.

42. Refer to Question 41 above. If a white ball is selected, what is the probability
that it came from (i) Bag 2 (ii) Bag 3
Solution:

Referring the Question 41, here we will use Baye’s Theorem

Therefore, the required probabilities are 2/11 and 9/11.

43. A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds A1, A2 and A3. They are sold as a mixture where
the proportions are 4:4:2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%,
60% and 35%. Calculate the probability
(i) of a randomly chosen seed to germinate
(ii) that it will not germinate given that the seed is of type A3,
(iii) that it is of the type A2 given that a randomly chosen seed does not germinate.
Solution:

Given that: A1: A2: A3 = 4: 4: 2

So, the probabilities will be
P(A1) = 4/10, P(A2) = 4/10 and P(A3) = 2/10,
Where A1, A2 and A3 are the three types of seeds.

Therefore, the required probability is 16/51 or 0.314.

44. A letter is known to have come either from TATA NAGAR or from CALCUTTA. On the
envelope, just two consecutive letter TA are visible. What is the probability that the letter came
from TATA NAGAR.
Solution:

Let E1 be the event that the letter comes from TATA NAGAR,
E2 be the event that the letter comes from CALCUTTA
And, E3 be the event that on the letter, two consecutive letters TA are visible
Now,
P(E1) = ½, P(E2) = ½, P(E3/E1) = 2/8 and P(E3/E2) = 1/7
For TATA NAGAR, the two consecutive letters visible are TA, AT, TA, AN, NA, AG, GA and AR
So, P(E3/E1) = 2/8
And, for CALCULTTA the two consecutive letters visible are CA, AL, LC, CU, UT, TT and TA
So, P(E3/E2) = 1/7
Now, using Baye’s Theorem we have
Therefore, the required probability is 7/11.

45. There are two bags, one of which contains 3 black and 4 white balls while the other contains 4
black and 3 white balls. A die is thrown. If it shows up 1 or 3, a ball is taken from the Ist bag; but
it shows up any other number, a ball is chosen from the second bag. Find the probability of
choosing a black ball.
Solution:

Let E1 be the event of selecting Bag 1 and E2 be the event of selecting Bag 2.
Also, let E3 be the event that black ball is selected
Now,
P(E1) = 2/6 = 1/3 and P(E2) = 1 – 1/3 = 2/3
P(E3/E1) = 3/7 and P(E3/E2) = 4/7
So,
P(E3) = P(E1). P(E3/E1) + P(E2). P(E3/E2)
= 1/3. 3/7 + 2/3. 4/7 = (3 + 8)/ 21 = 11/21
Therefore, the required probability is 11/21.

46. There are three urns containing 2 white and 3 black balls, 3 white and 2 black balls, and 4
white and 1 black balls, respectively. There is an equal probability of each urn being chosen. A
ball is drawn at random from the chosen urn and it is found to be white. Find the probability that
the ball drawn was from the second urn.
Solution:

Given, we have 3 urns:

Urn 1 = 2 white and 3 black balls
Urn 2 = 3 white and 2 black balls
Urn 3 = 4 white and 1 black balls
Now, the probabilities of choosing either of the urns are
P(U1) = P(U2) = P(U3) = 1/3
Let H be the event of drawing white ball from the chosen urn.
So,
P(H/U1) = 2/5, P(H/U2) = 3/5 and P(H/U3) = 4/5
By using Baye’s Theorem, we have
Therefore, the required probability is 1/3.

47. By examining the chest X ray, the probability that TB is detected when a person is actually
suffering is 0.99. The probability of an healthy person diagnosed to have TB is 0.001. In a certain
city, 1 in 1000 people suffers from TB. A person is selected at random and is diagnosed to have
TB. What is the probability that he actually has TB?
Solution:

Let E1 = Event that a person has TB

E2 = Event that a person does not have TB
And H = Event that the person is diagnosed to have TB.
So,
P(E1) = 1/1000 = 0.001, P(E2) = 1 – 1/1000 = 999/1000 = 0.999
P(H/E1) = 0.99, P(H/E2) = 0.001
Now, using Baye’s theorem we have

Therefore, the required probability is 110/221.

48. An item is manufactured by three machines A, B and C. Out of the total number of items
manufactured during a specified period, 50% are manufactured on A, 30% on B and 20% on C.
2% of the items produced on A and 2% of items produced on B are defective, and 3% of these
produced on C are defective. All the items are stored at one godown. One item is drawn at random
and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured on machine A?
Solution:

Let’s consider:
E1 = The event that the item is manufactured on machine A
E2 = The event that the item is manufactured on machine B
E3 = The event that the item is manufactured on machine C
Let H be the event that the selected item is defective.
Thus, by using Baye’s theorem we have
P(E1) = 50/100, P(E2) = 30/100, P(E3) = 20/100
P(H/E1) = 2/100, P(H/E2) = 2/100 and P(H/E3) = 3/100
Therefore, the required probability is 5/11.

49. Let X be a discrete random variable whose probability distribution is defined as follows:

where k is a constant. Calculate

(i) the value of k (ii) E (X) (iii) Standard deviation of X.
Solution:

(i) Given, P(X = x) = k(x + 1) for x = 1, 2, 3, 4

So, P(X = 1) = k(1 + 1) = 2k
P(X = 2) = k(2 + 1) = 3k
P(X = 3) = k(3 + 1) = 4k
P(X = 4) = k(4 + 1) = 5k
Also, P(X = x) = 2kx for x = 5, 6, 7
P(X = 5) = 2k(5) = 10k
P(X = 6) = 2k(6) = 12k
P(X = 7) = 2k(7) = 14k
And, for otherwise it is 0.
Thus, the probability distribution is given by
X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Otherwise
P(X) 2k 3k 4k 5k 10k 12k 14k 0
We know that,

So, 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k + 10k + 12k + 14k = 1

⇒ 50k = 1
⇒ k = 1/50
Therefore, the value of k is 1/50.

(ii) Now, the probability distribution is

X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(X) 2/50 3/50 4/50 5/50 10/50 12/50 14/50
E(X) = 1 x 2/50 + 2 x 3/50 + 3 x 4/50 + 4 x 5/50 + 5 x 10/50 + 6 x 12/50 + 7 x 14/50
= 2/50 + 6/50 + 12/50 + 20/50 + 50/50 + 72/50 + 98/50
= 260/50
= 26/5 = 5.2

(ii) We know that the standard deviation (SD) = √Variance

Variance = E(X2) – [E(X)]2

50. The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is given as under:

X 1 2 4 2A 3A 5A
P(X) 1/2 1/5 3/25 1/10 1/25 1/25
Calculate:
(i) The value of A if E(X) = 2.94
(ii) Variance of X.
Solution:

(i) We know that:

(ii) Now, the distribution becomes

X 1 2 4 6 9 15
P(X) 1/2 1/5 3/25 1/10 1/25 1/25
E(X2) = 1 x ½ + 4 x 1/5 + 16 x 3/25 + 36 x 1/10 + 81 x 1/25 + 225 x 1/25
= ½ + 4/5 + 48/25 + 36/10 + 81/25 + 225/25
= 0.5 + 0.8 + 1.92 + 3.6 + 3.24 + 9 = 19.06
Variance (X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
= 19.06 – (2.94)2 = 19.06 – 8.64 = 10.42

51. The probability distribution of a random variable x is given as under:

where k is a constant. Calculate

(i) E(X) (ii) E (3X2) (iii) P(X  4)
Solution:

The probability distribution of random variable X is given by:

X 1 2 3 4 5 6 Otherwise
P(X) k 4k 9k 8k 10k 12k 0
We know that

So, k + 4k + 9k + 8k + 10k + 12k = 1

44k = 1
k = 1/44
(i) E(X) =

= 1 x k + 2 x 4k + 3 x 9k + 4 x 8k + 5 x 10k + 6 x 12k
= k + 8k + 27k + 32k + 50k + 72k = 190k
= 190 x 1/44 = 95/22 = 4.32 (approx.)
(ii) E(X2) = 3(k + 4 x 4k + 9 x 9k + 16 x 8k + 25 x 10k + 36 x 12k)
= 3(k + 16k + 81k + 128k + 250k + 432k) = 3(908k)
= 3 x 908 x 1/44 = 2724/44 = 61.9 (approx.)
(iii) P(X ≥ 4) = P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X = 6)
= 8k + 10k + 12k = 30k
= 30 x 1/44 = 15/22

52. A bag contains (2n + 1) coins. It is known that n of these coins has a head on both sides
whereas the rest of the coins are fair. A coin is picked up at random from the bag and is tossed. If
the probability that the toss results in a head is 31/42, determine the value of n.
Solution:

Given, n coins are two headed coins and the remaining (n + 1) coins are fair.
Let E1: the event that unfair coin is selected
E2: the event that the fair coin is selected
E: the event that the toss results in a head
So,
P(E1) = n/(2n + 1) and P(E2) = (n + 1)/ (2n +1)
P(E/E1) = 1 (As it’s a sure event)
P(E/E2) = ½

Therefore, the required value of n is 10.

53. Two cards are drawn successively without replacement from a well shuffled deck of cards.
Find the mean and standard variation of the random variable X where X is the number of aces.
Solution:

Let’s consider X to be the random variable such that X = 0, 1, 2

Now, let E = the event of drawing an ace
And, F = the event of drawing non – ace
So,
54. A die is tossed twice. A ‘success’ is getting an even number on a toss. Find the variance of the
number of successes.
Solution:

Let’s consider E to be the event of getting even number on tossing a die.

 Chapter 13 Probability
EXERCISE 13.1

Question 1:

Given that E and F are events such that P(E) = 0.6, P(F) = 0.3 and P(E ∩ F) = 0.2, find P (E|F)
and P(F|E).

Answer:

It is given that P(E) = 0.6, P(F) = 0.3, and P(E ∩ F) = 0.2

Question 2:

Compute P(A|B), if P(B) = 0.5 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.32

Answer:

It is given that P(B) = 0.5 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.32

Question 3:

If P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.5 and P(B|A) = 0.4, find

(i) P(A ∩ B) (ii) P(A|B) (iii) P(A ∪ B)

Answer:

It is given that P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.5, and P(B|A) = 0.4

(i) P (B|A) = 0.4

(ii)

(iii)

PA∪B = PA + PB – PA∩B⇒PA∪B=0.8 + 0.5 – 0.32 = 0.98

Question 4:

Evaluate P (A ∪ B), if 2P (A) = P (B) = and P(A|B) =

Answer:

It is given that,

It is known that,
Question 5:

If P(A) , P(B) = and P(A ∪ B) = , find

1) P(A ∩ B)
2) P(A|B)
3) P(B|A)

Answer:

It is given that

(i)

(ii) It is known that,

(iii) It is known that,

Question 6:

A coin is tossed three times, where

(i) E: head on third toss, F: heads on first two tosses

(ii) E: at least two heads, F: at most two heads

(iii) E: at most two tails, F: at least one tail

Answer:

If a coin is tossed three times, then the sample space S is

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

It can be seen that the sample space has 8 elements.

(i) E = {HHH, HTH, THH, TTH}

F = {HHH, HHT}

E ∩ F = {HHH}

(ii) E = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}

F = {HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

E ∩ F = {HHT, HTH, THH}

Clearly,
(iii) E = {HHH, HHT, HTT, HTH, THH, THT, TTH}

F = {HHT, HTT, HTH, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

Question 7:

Two coins are tossed once, where

(i) E: tail appears on one coin, F: one coin shows head

(ii) E: not tail appears, F: no head appears

Answer:

If two coins are tossed once, then the sample space S is

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

(i) E = {HT, TH}

F = {HT, TH}
(ii) E = {HH}

F = {TT}

∴E∩F=Φ

P (F) = 1 and P (E ∩ F) = 0

∴ P(E|F) =

Question 8:

A die is thrown three times,

E: 4 appears on the third toss, F: 6 and 5 appears respectively on first two tosses

Answer:

If a die is thrown three times, then the number of elements in the sample space will be 6 ×
6 × 6 = 216

Question 9:

Mother, father and son line up at random for a family picture

E: son on one end, F: father in middle

Answer:

If mother (M), father (F), and son (S) line up for the family picture, then the sample space
will be

S = {MFS, MSF, FMS, FSM, SMF, SFM}

⇒ E = {MFS, FMS, SMF, SFM}

F = {MFS, SFM}

∴ E ∩ F = {MFS, SFM}

Question 10:

A black and a red dice are rolled.

(a) Find the conditional probability of obtaining a sum greater than 9, given that the black
die resulted in a 5.

(b) Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, given that the red die resulted in
a number less than 4.

Answer:

Let the first observation be from the black die and second from the red die.

When two dice (one black and another red) are rolled, the sample space S has 6 × 6 = 36
number of elements.

1. Let

A: Obtaining a sum greater than 9

= {(4, 6), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
B: Black die results in a 5.

= {(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6)}

∴ A ∩ B = {(5, 5), (5, 6)}

The conditional probability of obtaining a sum greater than 9, given that the black die
resulted in a 5, is given by P (A|B).

PA|B = PA∩BPB = 236636 = 26 = 13

(b) E: Sum of the observations is 8.

= {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}

F: Red die resulted in a number less than 4.

The conditional probability of obtaining the sum equal to 8, given that the red die resulted
in a number less than 4, is given by P (E|F).

Question 11:

A fair die is rolled. Consider events E = {1, 3, 5}, F = {2, 3} and G = {2, 3, 4, 5}

Find

(i) P (E|F) and P (F|E) (ii) P (E|G) and P (G|E)

(ii) P ((E ∪ F)|G) and P ((E ∩ G)|G)

Answer:

When a fair die is rolled, the sample space S will be

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
It is given that E = {1, 3, 5}, F = {2, 3}, and G = {2, 3, 4, 5}

(i) E ∩ F = {3}

(ii) E ∩ G = {3, 5}

(iii) E ∪ F = {1, 2, 3, 5}

(E ∪ F) ∩ G = {1, 2, 3, 5} ∩{2, 3, 4, 5} = {2, 3, 5}

E ∩ F = {3}

(E ∩ F) ∩ G = {3}∩{2, 3, 4, 5} = {3}
Question 12:

Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two
children, what is the conditional probability that both are girls given that (i) the youngest is
a girl, (ii) at least one is a girl?

Answer:

Let b and g represent the boy and the girl child respectively. If a family has two children,
the sample space will be

S = {(b, b), (b, g), (g, b), (g, g)}

Let A be the event that both children are girls.

(i) Let B be the event that the youngest child is a girl.

The conditional probability that both are girls, given that the youngest child is a girl, is
given by P (A|B).

Therefore, the required probability is .

(ii) Let C be the event that at least one child is a girl.

The conditional probability that both are girls, given that at least one child is a girl, is given
by P(A|C).

Question 13:

An instructor has a Question bank consisting of 300 easy True/False Questions, 200
difficult True/False Questions, 500 easy multiple choice Questions and 400 difficult
multiple choice Questions. If a Question is selected at random from the Question bank,
what is the probability that it will be an easy Question given that it is a multiple
choice Question?

Answer:

The given data can be tabulated as

True/False Multiple choice Total

Easy 300 500 800

Difficult 200 400 600

Total 500 900 1400

Let us denote E = easy Questions, M = multiple choice Questions, D = difficult Questions,

and T = True/False Questions

Total number of Questions = 1400

Total number of multiple choice Questions = 900

Therefore, probability of selecting an easy multiple choice Question is

P (E ∩ M) =

Probability of selecting a multiple choice Question, P (M), is

P (E|M) represents the probability that a randomly selected Question will be an
easy Question, given that it is a multiple choice Question.

Therefore, the required probability is .

Question 14:

Given that the two numbers appearing on throwing the two dice are different. Find the
probability of the event ‘the sum of numbers on the dice is 4’.

Answer:

When dice is thrown, number of observations in the sample space = 6 × 6 = 36

Let A be the event that the sum of the numbers on the dice is 4 and B be the event that the
two numbers appearing on throwing the two dice are different. ∴ A = {(1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1)}

B=1, 21, 31, 41, 51, 62, 12, 32, 42, 52, 63, 13, 23, 43, 53, 64,

14, 24, 34, 54, 65, 15, 25, 35,

45,66, 16, 26, 36, 46, 5 A∩B = 1, 3, 3, 1∴ P(B) =

3036=56and

PA∩B = 236=118Let P (A|B) represent the probability that the sum of the numbers on the
dice is 4, given that the two numbers appearing on throwing the two dice are different.

Therefore, the required probability is .

Question 15:

Consider the experiment of throwing a die, if a multiple of 3 comes up, throw the die again
and if any other number comes, toss a coin. Find the conditional probability of the event
‘the coin shows a tail’, given that ‘at least one die shows a 3’.
Answer:

The outcomes of the given experiment can be represented by the following tree diagram.

The sample space of the experiment is,

Let A be the event that the coin shows a tail and B be the event that at least one die shows
3.

Probability of the event that the coin shows a tail, given that at least one die shows 3, is
given by P(A|B).

Therefore,

Question 16:

If

(A) 0 (B)

(C) not defined (D) 1

Answer:

It is given that

Therefore, P (A|B) is not defined.

Thus, the correct Answer is C.

Question 17:

If A and B are events such that P (A|B) = P(B|A), then

(A) A ⊂ B but A ≠ B (B) A = B

(C) A ∩ B = Φ (D) P(A) = P(B)

Answer:

It is given that, P(A|B) = P(B|A)

⇒ P (A) = P (B)

Thus, the correct Answer is D.

Exercise 13.2

Question 1:

If , find P (A ∩ B) if A and B are independent events.

Answer:

It is given that

A and B are independent events. Therefore,

Question 2:

Two cards are drawn at random and without replacement from a pack of 52 playing cards.
Find the probability that both the cards are black.

Answer:

There are 26 black cards in a deck of 52 cards.

Let P (A) be the probability of getting a black card in the first draw.

Let P (B) be the probability of getting a black card on the second draw.

Since the card is not replaced,

Thus, probability of getting both the cards black =

Question 3:

A box of oranges is inspected by examining three randomly selected oranges drawn

without replacement. If all the three oranges are good, the box is approved for sale,
otherwise, it is rejected. Find the probability that a box containing 15 oranges out of which
12 are good and 3 are bad ones will be approved for sale.

Answer:

Let A, B, and C be the respective events that the first, second, and third drawn orange is
good.

Therefore, probability that first drawn orange is good, P (A)

The oranges are not replaced.

Therefore, probability of getting second orange good, P (B) =

Similarly, probability of getting third orange good, P(C)

The box is approved for sale, if all the three oranges are good.

Thus, probability of getting all the oranges good

Therefore, the probability that the box is approved for sale is .

Question 4:

A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event ‘head appears on the coin’
and B be the event ‘3 on the die’. Check whether A and B are independent events or not.

Answer:

If a fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed, then the sample space S is given by,

Let A: Head appears on the coin

B: 3 on die

∴
Therefore, A and B are independent events.

Question 5:

A die marked 1, 2, 3 in red and 4, 5, 6 in green is tossed. Let A be the event, ‘the number is
even,’ and B be the event, ‘the number is red’. Are A and B independent?

Answer:

When a die is thrown, the sample space (S) is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Let A: the number is even = {2, 4, 6}

B: the number is red = {1, 2, 3}

PB =36=12∴ A ∩ B = {2}

Therefore, A and B are not independent.

Question 6:

Let E and F be events with. Are E and F

independent?

Answer:

It is given that , and

Therefore, E and F are not independent.

Question 7:

Given that the events A and B are such that P(A) = 12,

PA∪B=35and P (B) = p. Find p if they are (i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent.

Answer:

It is given that

(i) When A and B are mutually exclusive, A ∩ B = Φ

∴ P (A ∩ B) = 0

It is known that,

(ii) When A and B are independent,

It is known that,
Question 8:

Let A and B be independent events with P (A) = 0.3 and P (B) = 0.4. Find

(i) P (A ∩ B)
(ii) P (A ∪ B)
(iii) P (A | B)
(iv) P (B | A)

Answer:

It is given that P (A) = 0.3 and P (B) = 0.4

(i) If A and B are independent events, then

(ii) It is known that,

(iii) It is known that,

(iv) It is known that,

Question 9:

If A and B are two events such that, find P (not A

and not B).

Answer:

It is given that,
P(not on A and not on B) =

P(not on A and not on B) =

Question 10:

Events A and B are such that . State

whether A and B are independent?

Answer:

It is given that

Therefore, A and B are not independent events.

Question 11:

Given two independent events A and B such that P (A) = 0.3, P (B) = 0.6. Find

(i) P (A and B)
(ii) P (A and not B)
(iii) P (A or B)
(iv) P (neither A nor B)

Answer:

It is given that P (A) = 0.3 and P (B) = 0.6

Also, A and B are independent events.

(i)

(ii) P (A and not B) =

(iii) P (A or B) =

(iv) P (neither A nor B) =

Question 12:
A die is tossed thrice. Find the probability of getting an odd number at least once.

Answer:

Probability of getting an odd number in a single throw of a die =

Similarly, probability of getting an even number =

Probability of getting an even number three times =

Therefore, probability of getting an odd number at least once

= 1 − Probability of getting an odd number in none of the throws

= 1 − Probability of getting an even number thrice

Question 13:

Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a box containing 10 black and 8 red
balls. Find the probability that

(i) both balls are red.

(ii) first ball is black and second is red.

(iii) one of them is black and other is red.

Answer:

Total number of balls = 18

Number of red balls = 8

Number of black balls = 10

(i) Probability of getting a red ball in the first draw =

The ball is replaced after the first draw.

∴ Probability of getting a red ball in the second draw =

Therefore, probability of getting both the balls red =

(ii) Probability of getting first ball black =

The ball is replaced after the first draw.

Probability of getting second ball as red =

Therefore, probability of getting first ball as black and second ball as red =

(iii) Probability of getting first ball as red =

The ball is replaced after the first draw.

Probability of getting second ball as black =

Therefore, probability of getting first ball as black and second ball as red =

Therefore, probability that one of them is black and other is red

= Probability of getting first ball black and second as red + Probability of getting first ball
red and second ball black

Question 14:

Probability of solving specific problem independently by A and B are

respectively. If both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that

(i) the problem is solved (ii) exactly one of them solves the problem.

Answer:

Probability of solving the problem by A, P (A) =

Probability of solving the problem by B, P (B) =

Since the problem is solved independently by A and B,

1. Probability that the problem is solved = P (A ∪ B)

= P (A) + P (B) − P (AB)

(ii) Probability that exactly one of them solves the problem is given

by,

Question 15:

One card is drawn at random from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. In which of the
following cases are the events E and F independent?

(i) E: ‘the card drawn is a spade’

F: ‘the card drawn is an ace’

(ii) E: ‘the card drawn is black’

F: ‘the card drawn is a king’

(iii) E: ‘the card drawn is a king or queen’

F: ‘the card drawn is a queen or jack’

Answer:

(i) In a deck of 52 cards, 13 cards are spades and 4 cards are aces.

∴ P(E) = P(the card drawn is a spade) =

∴ P(F) = P(the card drawn is an ace) =

In the deck of cards, only 1 card is an ace of spades.

P(EF) = P(the card drawn is spade and an ace) =

P(E) × P(F) =

⇒ P(E) × P(F) = P(EF)

Therefore, the events E and F are independent.

(ii) In a deck of 52 cards, 26 cards are black and 4 cards are kings.

∴ P(E) = P(the card drawn is black) =

∴ P(F) = P(the card drawn is a king) =

In the pack of 52 cards, 2 cards are black as well as kings.

∴ P (EF) = P(the card drawn is a black king) =

P(E) × P(F) =

Therefore, the given events E and F are independent.

(iii) In a deck of 52 cards, 4 cards are kings, 4 cards are queens, and 4 cards are jacks.
∴ P(E) = P(the card drawn is a king or a queen) =

∴ P(F) = P(the card drawn is a queen or a jack) =

There are 4 cards which are king or queen and queen or jack.

∴ P(EF) = P(the card drawn is a king or a queen, or queen or a jack)

P(E) × P(F) =

Therefore, the given events E and F are not independent.

Question 16:

In a hostel, 60% of the students read Hindi newspaper, 40% read English newspaper and
20% read both Hindi and English news papers. A student is selected at random.

(a) Find the probability that she reads neither Hindi nor English news papers.

(b) If she reads Hindi news paper, find the probability that she reads English news paper.

(c) If she reads English news paper, find the probability that she reads Hindi news paper.

Answer:

Let H denote the students who read Hindi newspaper and E denote the students who read
English newspaper.

It is given that,
1. Probability that a student reads Hindi or English newspaper

is,

(ii) Probability that a randomly chosen student reads English newspaper, if she reads Hindi
news paper, is given by P (E|H).

(iii) Probability that a randomly chosen student reads Hindi newspaper, if she reads English
newspaper, is given by P (H|E).
Question 17:

The probability of obtaining an even prime number on each die, when a pair of dice is rolled
is

(A) 0

(B)

(C)

(D)

Answer:

When two dice are rolled, the number of outcomes is 36.

The only even prime number is 2.

Let E be the event of getting an even prime number on each die.

∴ E = {(2, 2)}

Therefore, the correct Answer is D.

Question 18:

Two events A and B will be independent, if

(A) A and B are mutually exclusive

(B)

(C) P(A) = P(B)

(D) P(A) + P(B) = 1

Answer:

Two events A and B are said to be independent, if P(AB) = P(A) × P(B)

Consider the result given in alternative B.

This implies that A and B are independent, if

Distracter Rationale

A. Let P (A) = m, P (B) = n, 0 < m, n < 1

A and B are mutually exclusive.

C. Let A: Event of getting an odd number on throw of a die = {1, 3, 5}

B: Event of getting an even number on throw of a die = {2, 4, 6}

Here,

D. From the above example, it can be seen that,

However, it cannot be inferred that A and B are independent.

Thus, the correct Answer is B.

Exercise 13.3

Question 1:

An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its colour is noted and
is returned to the urn. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn are put in the urn
and then a ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that the second ball is red?

Answer:

The urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls.

Let a red ball be drawn in the first attempt.

P (drawing a red ball)

If two red balls are added to the urn, then the urn contains 7 red and 5 black balls.

P (drawing a red ball)

Let a black ball be drawn in the first attempt.

P (drawing a black ball in the first attempt)

If two black balls are added to the urn, then the urn contains 5 red and 7 black balls.

P (drawing a red ball)

Therefore, probability of drawing second ball as red

is

Question 2:
A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. One
of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the bag which is found to
be red. Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag.

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 be the events of selecting first bag and second bag respectively.

Let A be the event of getting a red ball.

The probability of drawing a ball from the first bag, given that it is red, is given by P (E2|A).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 3:

Of the students in a college, it is known that 60% reside in hostel and 40% are day scholars
(not residing in hostel). Previous year results report that 30% of all students who reside in
hostel attain A grade and 20% of day scholars attain A grade in their annual examination.
At the end of the year, one student is chosen at random from the college and he has an A
grade, what is the probability that the student is hostler?

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 be the events that the student is a hostler and a day scholar respectively and
A be the event that the chosen student gets grade A.

The probability that a randomly chosen student is a hostler, given that he has an A grade,
is given by .

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 4:

In Answering a Question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the Answer or

guesses. Let be the probability that he knows the Answer and be the probability that
he guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses at the Answer will be correct with
probability What is the probability that the student knows the Answer given that
he Answered it correctly?

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 be the respective events that the student knows the Answer and he guesses
the Answer.

Let A be the event that the Answer is correct.

The probability that the student Answered correctly, given that he knows the Answer, is 1.

∴ P (A|E1) = 1

Probability that the student Answered correctly, given that he guessed, is .

The probability that the student knows the Answer, given that he Answered it correctly, is
given by .

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 5:

A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is in fact,
present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person
tested (that is, if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.005, the test will imply
he has the disease). If 0.1 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the
probability that a person has the disease given that his test result is positive?

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 be the respective events that a person has a disease and a person has no
disease.

Since E1 and E2 are events complimentary to each other,

∴ P (E1) + P (E2) = 1

⇒ P (E2) = 1 − P (E1) = 1 − 0.001 = 0.999

Let A be the event that the blood test result is positive.

Probability that a person has a disease, given that his test result is positive, is given by

P (E1|A).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 6:

There are three coins. One is two headed coin (having head on both faces), another is a
biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of the
three coins is chosen at random and tossed, it shows heads, what is the probability that it
was the two headed coin?

Answer:

Let E1, E2, and E3 be the respective events of choosing a two headed coin, a biased coin,
and an unbiased coin.

Let A be the event that the coin shows heads.

A two-headed coin will always show heads.

Probability of heads coming up, given that it is a biased coin= 75%

Since the third coin is unbiased, the probability that it shows heads is always .

The probability that the coin is two-headed, given that it shows heads, is given by

P (E1|A).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 7:

An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck
drivers. The probability of accidents are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the
insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver?

Answer:

Let E1, E2, and E3 be the respective events that the driver is a scooter driver, a car driver, and
a truck driver.
Let A be the event that the person meets with an accident.

There are 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers, and 6000 truck drivers.

Total number of drivers = 2000 + 4000 + 6000 = 12000

P (E1) = P (driver is a scooter driver)

P (E2) = P (driver is a car driver)

P (E3) = P (driver is a truck driver)

The probability that the driver is a scooter driver, given that he met with an accident, is
given by P (E1|A).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 8:

A factory has two machines A and B. Past record shows that machine A produced 60% of
the items of output and machine B produced 40% of the items. Further, 2% of the items
produced by machine A and 1% produced by machine B were defective. All the items are
put into one stockpile and then one item is chosen at random from this and is found to be
defective. What is the probability that was produced by machine B?

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 be the respective events of items produced by machines A and B. Let X be the
event that the produced item was found to be defective.

∴ Probability of items produced by machine A, P (E1)

Probability of items produced by machine B, P (E2)

Probability that machine A produced defective items, P (X|E1)

Probability that machine B produced defective items, P (X|E2)

The probability that the randomly selected item was from machine B, given that it is
defective, is given by P (E2|X).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 9:

Two groups are competing for the position on the board of directors of a corporation. The
probabilities that the first and the second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively.
Further, if the first group wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.7 and the
corresponding probability is 0.3 if the second group wins. Find the probability that the new
product introduced was by the second group.

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 be the respective events that the first group and the second group win the
competition. Let A be the event of introducing a new product.

P (E1) = Probability that the first group wins the competition = 0.6

P (E2) = Probability that the second group wins the competition = 0.4

P (A|E1) = Probability of introducing a new product if the first group wins = 0.7

P (A|E2) = Probability of introducing a new product if the second group wins = 0.3

The probability that the new product is introduced by the second group is given by

P (E2|A).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 10:

Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets a 5 or 6, she tosses a coin three times and notes
the number of heads. If she gets 1, 2, 3 or 4, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a
head or tail is obtained. If she obtained exactly one head, what is the probability that she
threw 1, 2, 3 or 4 with the die?

Answer:

Let E1 be the event that the outcome on the die is 5 or 6 and E2 be the event that the
outcome on the die is 1, 2, 3, or 4.

Let A be the event of getting exactly one head.

P (A|E1) = Probability of getting exactly one head by tossing the coin three times if she gets

5 or 6

P (A|E2) = Probability of getting exactly one head in a single throw of coin if she gets 1, 2, 3,

or 4

The probability that the girl threw 1, 2, 3, or 4 with the die, if she obtained exactly one head,
is given by P (E2|A).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 11:

A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C. The first operator A produces 1%
defective items, where as the other two operators B and C produce 5% and 7% defective
items respectively. A is on the job for 50% of the time, B is on the job for 30% of the time
and C is on the job for 20% of the time. A defective item is produced, what is the probability
that was produced by A?

Answer:

Let E1, E2, and E3 be the respective events of the time consumed by machines A, B, and C
for the job.

Let X be the event of producing defective items.

The probability that the defective item was produced by A is given by P (E1|A).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 12:

A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are
drawn and are found to be both diamonds. Find the probability of the lost card being a
diamond.

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 be the respective events of choosing a diamond card and a card which is not
diamond.

Let A denote the lost card.

Out of 52 cards, 13 cards are diamond and 39 cards are not diamond.
When one diamond card is lost, there are 12 diamond cards out of 51 cards.

Two cards can be drawn out of 12 diamond cards in ways.

Similarly, 2 diamond cards can be drawn out of 51 cards in ways. The probability of
getting two cards, when one diamond card is lost, is given by P (A|E1).

When the lost card is not a diamond, there are 13 diamond cards out of 51 cards.

Two cards can be drawn out of 13 diamond cards in ways whereas 2 cards can be
drawn out of 51 cards in ways.

The probability of getting two cards, when one card is lost which is not diamond, is given
by P (A|E2).

The probability that the lost card is diamond is given by P (E1|A).

By using Bayes’ theorem, we obtain

Question 13:

Probability that A speaks truth is . A coin is tossed. A reports that a head appears. The
probability that actually there was head is

A.

B.

C.

D.

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 be the events such that

E1: A speaks truth

E2: A speaks false

Let X be the event that a head appears.

P(E1)=45Therefore,

P(E2)=1-P(E1)=1-45=15If a coin is tossed, then it may result in either head (H) or tail (T).

The probability of getting a head is whether A speaks truth or not.

The probability that there is actually a head is given by P (E1|X).

Therefore, the correct Answer is A.

Question 14:

If A and B are two events such that A ⊂ B and P (B) ≠ 0, then which of the following is
correct?

A.

B.

C.

D. None of these

Answer:

If A ⊂ B, then A ∩ B = A

⇒ P (A ∩ B) = P (A)

Also, P (A) < P (B)

Consider … (1)

Consider … (2)

It is known that, P (B) ≤ 1

Thus, from (3), it can be concluded that the relation given in alternative C is correct.

Miscellaneous Exercise

Question 1:

A and B are two events such that P (A) ≠ 0. Find P (B|A), if

(i) A is a subset of B (ii) A ∩ B = Φ

Answer:

It is given that, P (A) ≠ 0

(i) A is a subset of B.

(ii)
Question 2:

A couple has two children,

(i) Find the probability that both children are males, if it is known that at least one of the
children is male.

(ii) Find the probability that both children are females, if it is known that the elder child is a
female.

Answer:

If a couple has two children, then the sample space is

S = {(b, b), (b, g), (g, b), (g, g)}

(i) Let E and F respectively denote the events that both children are males and at least one
of the children is a male.

(ii) Let A and B respectively denote the events that both children are females and the elder
child is a female.
Question 3:

Suppose that 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair. A haired person is selected
at random. What is the probability of this person being male?

Assume that there are equal number of males and females.

Answer:

It is given that 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair.

Therefore, percentage of people with grey hair = (5 + 0.25) % = 5.25%

∴ Probability that the selected haired person is a male

Question 4:

Suppose that 90% of people are right-handed. What is the probability that at most 6 of a
random sample of 10 people are right-handed?

Answer:

A person can be either right-handed or left-handed.

It is given that 90% of the people are right-handed.

Using binomial distribution, the probability that more than 6 people are right-handed is
given by,

Therefore, the probability that at most 6 people are right-handed

= 1 − P (more than 6 are right-handed)

Question 5:

An urn contains 25 balls of which 10 balls bear a mark ‘X’ and the remaining 15 bear a
mark ‘Y’. A ball is drawn at random from the urn, its mark is noted down and it is replaced.
If 6 balls are drawn in this way, find the probability that

(i) all will bear ‘X’ mark.

(ii) not more than 2 will bear ‘Y’ mark.

(iii) at least one ball will bear ‘Y’ mark

(iv) the number of balls with ‘X’ mark and ‘Y’ mark will be equal.

Answer:

Total number of balls in the urn = 25

Balls bearing mark ‘X’ = 10

Balls bearing mark ‘Y’ = 15

p = P (ball bearing mark ‘X’) =

q = P (ball bearing mark ‘Y’) =

Six balls are drawn with replacement. Therefore, the number of trials are Bernoulli trials.

Let Z be the random variable that represents the number of balls with ‘Y’ mark on them in
the trials.
Clearly, Z has a binomial distribution with n = 6 and p = .

∴ P (Z = z) =

(i) P (all will bear ‘X’ mark) = P (Z = 0) =

(ii) P (not more than 2 bear ‘Y’ mark) = P (Z ≤ 2)

= P (Z = 0) + P (Z = 1) + P (Z = 2)

(iii) P (at least one ball bears ‘Y’ mark) = P (Z ≥ 1) = 1 − P (Z = 0)

(iv) P (equal number of balls with ‘X’ mark and ‘Y’ mark) = P (Z = 3)

C36 253 353

Question 6:
In a hurdle race, a player has to cross 10 hurdles. The probability that he will clear each

hurdle is . What is the probability that he will knock down fewer than 2 hurdles?

Answer:

Let p and q respectively be the probabilities that the player will clear and knock down the
hurdle.

Let X be the random variable that represents the number of times the player will knock
down the hurdle.

Therefore, by binomial distribution, we obtain

P (X = x) =

P (player knocking down less than 2 hurdles) = P (X < 2)

= P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)

Question 7:

A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probability of
obtaining the third six in the sixth throw of the die.
Answer:

The probability of getting a six in a throw of die is and not getting a six is .

Let

The probability that the 2 sixes come in the first five throws of the die is

∴ Probability that third six comes in the sixth throw =

Question 5:

If a leap year is selected at random, what is the chance that it will contain 53 Tuesdays?

Answer:

In a leap year, there are 366 days i.e., 52 weeks and 2 days.

In 52 weeks, there are 52 Tuesdays.

Therefore, the probability that the leap year will contain 53 Tuesdays is equal to the
probability that the remaining 2 days will be Tuesdays.

The remaining 2 days can be

Monday and Tuesday

Tuesday and Wednesday

Wednesday and Thursday

Thursday and Friday

Friday and Saturday

Saturday and Sunday

Sunday and Monday

Total number of cases = 7

Favourable cases = 2

∴Probability that a leap year will have 53 Tuesdays =

Question 6:

Suppose we have four boxes. A, B, C and D containing coloured marbles as given below:

Box Marble colour

Red White Black

A 1 6 3

B 6 2 2

C 8 1 1

D 0 6 4

One of the boxes has been selected at random and a single marble is drawn from it. If the
marble is red, what is the probability that it was drawn from box A?, box B?, box C?

Answer:

Let R be the event of drawing the red marble.

Let EA, EB, and EC respectively denote the events of selecting the box A, B, and C.

Total number of marbles = 40

Number of red marbles = 15

Probability of drawing the red marble from box A is given by P (EA|R).

Probability that the red marble is from box B is P (EB|R).

Probability that the red marble is from box C is P (EC|R).

Question 7:

Assume that the chances of the patient having a heart attack are 40%. It is also assumed
that a meditation and yoga course reduce the risk of heart attack by 30% and prescription
of certain drug reduces its chances by 25%. At a time a patient can choose any one of the
two options with equal probabilities. It is given that after going through one of the two
options the patient selected at random suffers a heart attack. Find the probability that the
patient followed a course of meditation and yoga?

Answer:

Let A, E1, and E2 respectively denote the events that a person has a heart attack, the
selected person followed the course of yoga and meditation, and the person adopted the
drug prescription.
Probability that the patient suffering a heart attack followed a course of meditation and
yoga is given by P (E1|A).

Question 8:

If each element of a second order determinant is either zero or one, what is the probability
that the value of the determinant is positive? (Assume that the individual entries of the

determinant are chosen independently, each value being assumed with probability ).

Answer:

The total number of determinants of second order with each element being 0 or 1 is (2)4 =
16

The value of determinant is positive in the following cases.

∴ Required probability =

Question 9:

An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems, say, A and B. From previous testing
procedures, the following probabilities are assumed to be known:

P(A fails) = 0.2

P(B fails alone) = 0.15

P(A and B fail) = 0.15

Evaluate the following probabilities

(i) P(A fails| B has failed) (ii) P(A fails alone)

Answer:

Let the event in which A fails and B fails be denoted by EA and EB.

P (EA) = 0.2

P (EA ∩ EB) = 0.15

P (B fails alone) = P (EB) − P (EA ∩ EB)

⇒ 0.15 = P (EB) − 0.15

⇒ P (EB) = 0.3

(i)

(ii) P (A fails alone) = P (EA) − P (EA ∩ EB)

= 0.2 − 0.15

= 0.05

Question 10:

Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls and Bag II contains 4 red and 5 black balls. One ball
is transferred from Bag I to Bag II and then a ball is drawn from Bag II. The ball so drawn is
found to be red in colour. Find the probability that the transferred ball is black.

Answer:

Let E1 and E2 respectively denote the events that a red ball is transferred from bag I to II
and a black ball is transferred from bag I to II.

Let A be the event that the ball drawn is red.

When a red ball is transferred from bag I to II,

When a black ball is transferred from bag I to II,

Question 11:

If A and B are two events such that P (A) ≠ 0 and P(B|A) = 1, then.

(A) A ⊂ B

(B) B ⊂ A

(C) B = Φ

(D) A = Φ

Answer:

P (A) ≠ 0 and

Thus, the correct Answer is A.

Question 12:

If P (A|B) > P (A), then which of the following is correct:

(A) P (B|A) < P (B)

(B) P (A ∩ B) < P (A).P (B)

(C) P (B|A) > P (B)

(D) P (B|A) = P (B)

Answer:

Thus, the correct Answer is C.

Question 13:

If A and B are any two events such that P (A) + P (B) − P (A and B) = P (A), then

(A) P (B|A) = 1 (B) P (A|B) = 1

(C) P (B|A) = 0 (D) P (A|B) = 0

Answer:

Thus, the correct Answer is B.

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Class 12th mathematics

13 PROBABILITY
MIND MAP
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