OVERVIEW:

We start this chapter with the basic concepts of probability. These concepts include
probability experiments, sample spaces, the addition and multiplication rules, and the probabilities
of complementary events. Also, you will learn the rule for counting, and the differences between
permutations and combinations. This chapter also explains how the counting rules and the
probability rules can be used together to solve a wide variety of problems

LESSON OUTLINE:

1. Probability

2. The Addition Rules for Probability

3. The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

4. Counting Rules

5. Probability and Counting Rules

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:

At the end of this lesson, the students must be able to:

a) Determine sample spaces and find the probability of an event, using classical probability
or empirical probability.
b) Solve the probability of compound events, using the addition rules.
c) Solve the probability of compound events and the conditional probability of an event,
using the multiplication rules.
d) Solve problems using the fundamental counting , permutation and the combination rule.
e) Find the probability of an event, using the counting rules.

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PRE-TEST:

Answer the following statements below. Determine what is being asked for in the following
statements.

1. A recent survey found that the ages of workers in a factory is distributed as follows:
Age Number
20–29 18
30–39 27
40–49 36
50–59 16
60 or older 3
Total 100
If a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person is
a. 40 or older.
b. Under 40 years old.
c. Between 30 and 39 years old.
d. Under 60 but over 39 years old.

2. In a sample of 50 people, 19 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 7 had type B
blood, and 2 had type AB blood. If a person is selected at random, find the probability
that the person
a. Has type A blood.
b. Has type B or type AB blood.
c. Does not have type O blood.
d. Has neither type A nor type O blood.

3. In a recent survey of 356 children aged 19–24 months, it was found that 89 ate
French fries. If a child is selected at random, find the probability that he or she eats
French fries.

4. In a classroom of 36 students, 8 were liberal arts majors and 7 were history majors.
If a student is selected at random, find the probability that the student is neither a
liberal arts nor a history major.

5. A recent survey found that 74% of those questioned get some of the news from the
Internet. If a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person does not
get any news from the Internet.

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 2.1 PROBABILITY

Probability

➢ the chance of an event occurring.

Probability Experiment

➢ Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card from a deck
➢ a chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes.

Outcome

➢ the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.

Sample Space

➢ is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are shown here.

Experiment Sample space

Toss one coin Head, tail

Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Answer a true/false question True, false

Toss two coins Head-head, tail-tail, head-tail, tail-head

Tree Diagram

➢ device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and also from the
outcome point. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.

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 EXAMPLE:

Gender of Children

Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the gender of three children in a family,

Solution:

Since there are two possibilities (boy or girl) for the first child, draw two branches from a
starting point and label one B and the other G. Then if the first child is a boy, there are two
possibilities for the second child (boy or girl), so draw two branches from B and label one B and
the other G. Do the same if the first child is a girl. Follow the same procedure for the third child.
The completed tree diagram is shown in Figure. To find the outcomes for the sample space, trace
through all the possible branches, beginning at the starting point for each one.

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 Event

➢ a set of outcomes of a probability experiment.

An event can be one outcome or more than one outcome.

For example, if a die is rolled and a 6 shows, this result is called an outcome, since it is
a result of a single trial. An event with one outcome is called a simple event. The event of
getting an odd number when a die is rolled is called a compound event, since it consists of
three outcomes or three simple events. In general, a compound event consists of two or more
outcomes or simple events.

There are three basic interpretations of probability:

1. Classical probability

2. Empirical or relative frequency probability

3. Subjective probability

1. Classical probability

➢ uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will
happen.
➢ assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur

Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of occurring.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸
The probability of any event E is
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

𝑛(𝐸)
This probability is denoted by 𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑛(𝑆)

This probability is called classical probability, and it uses the sample space S.

Example:

1. Find the probability of getting a red ace when a card is drawn at random from an
ordinary deck of cards.

Solution:

Since there are 52 cards and there are 2 red aces, namely, the ace of hearts and
2 1
the ace of diamonds, P(red ace) = =
52 26

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 2. If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three children are
girls.

Solution:

The sample space for the gender of the children for a family that has three children
has eight outcomes, that is, BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, and BGG.
There are three ways to have two girls, namely, GGB, GBG, and BGG, P(two girls)
3
= .
8

In probability theory, it is important to understand the meaning of the words and and or.

For example, if you were asked to find the probability of getting a queen and a heart when
you were drawing a single card from a deck, you would be looking for the queen of hearts.
Here the word and means “at the same time.” The word or has two meanings.

For example, if you were asked to find the probability of selecting a queen or a heart when
one card is selected from a deck, you would be looking for one of the 4 queens or one of the
13 hearts. In this case, the queen of hearts would be included in both cases and counted
twice. So there would be 4 + 13 - 1 = 16 possibilities.

Example:

1. A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find these probabilities.

a. Of getting a jack
b. Of getting the 6 of clubs (i.e., a 6 and a club)
c. Of getting a 3 or a diamond
d. Of getting a 3 or a 6
Solution:

a. There are 4 jacks so there are 4 outcomes in event E and 52 possible outcomes in the
4 1
sample space. Hence, P(jack)= =
52 13

b. Since there is only one 6 of clubs in event E, the probability of getting a 6 of clubs is P(6
1
of clubs)=
52

c. There are four 3s and 13 diamonds, but the 3 of diamonds is counted twice in this listing.
16 4
Hence, there are 16 possibilities of drawing a 3 or a diamond, so P(3 or diamond)= = .
52 13
This is an example of the inclusive or.
8 2
d. Since there are four 3s and four 6s, P(3 or 6) = = .This is an example of the exclusive
52 13
or.

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There are four basic probability rules. These rules are helpful in solving probability problems,
in understanding the nature of probability, and in deciding if your answers to the problems
are correct.

Probability Rule 1

The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal) between and including
0 and 1. This is denoted by 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐸) ≤ 1 . Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative
or greater than 1.

Probability Rule 2

If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the sample space), its
probability is 0.

Example:

When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9.

Solution:

Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9. Hence,

0
the probability is P(9) = =0.
6

Probability Rule 3

If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.

Example:

When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less than 7?

Solution:

Since all outcomes—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6—are less than 7, the probability is

6
P(number less than 7) = =1
6

The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain.

Probability Rule 4

The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

For example, in the roll of a fair die, each outcome in the sample space has a probability of
1
. Hence, the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is as shown.
6

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Complementary Events

Another important concept in probability theory is that of complementary events. When a

die is rolled, for instance, the sample space consists of the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. The
event E of getting odd numbers consists of the outcomes 1, 3, and 5. The event of not getting
an odd number is called the complement of event E, and it consists of the outcomes 2, 4, and
6.

The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event E. The complement of E is denoted by (read “E bar”).

Rule for Complementary Events

If the probability of an event or the probability of its complement is known, then the other
can be found by subtracting the probability from 1.

𝑃(𝐸̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸̅) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐸̅) = 1

Example:

1. Find the complement of each event.

a. Rolling a die and getting a 4
b. Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a vowel
c. Selecting a month and getting a month that begins with a J
d. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday
Solution:
a. Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
b. Getting a consonant (assume y is a consonant)
c. Getting February, March, April, May, August, September, October, November, or
December
d. Getting Saturday or Sunday

1
2. If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the world is , find the
5
probability that a person does not live in an industrialized country. Source: Harper’s Index.
Solution
P(not living in an industrialized country)= 1 − 𝑃(𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦)
1 4
= 1− =
5 5

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 Probabilities can be represented pictorially by Venn diagrams.

2. Empirical Probability

The difference between classical and empirical probability is that classical probability assumes
that certain outcomes are equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die is rolled), while
empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes.

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is

𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑓

𝑃(𝐸) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛

This probability is called empirical probability and is based on observation.

Example:

In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and
2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Solution:
𝑓 21
a. 𝑃(𝐸) = =
𝑛 50
22 5
b. 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = + =
50 50
27
(𝐴𝑑𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠)
50

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 5 2 7
c. 𝑃(𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝐴 𝑛𝑜𝑟 𝑂) = + =
50 50 50
(𝑁𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝐴 𝑛𝑜𝑟 𝑂 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐵 𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑)
2 48 24
d. 𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 1 − = =
50 50 25
(𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝐵 𝑏𝑦 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝐵 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 1. )

3. Subjective Probability

Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate,

employing opinions and inexact information

In subjective probability, a person or group makes an educated guess at the chance

that an event will occur. This guess is based on the person’s experience and evaluation of
a solution. For example, a sportswriter may say that there is a 70% probability that the
Pirates will win the pennant next year. A physician might say that, on the basis of her
diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the patient will need an operation. A seismologist might
say there is an 80% probability that an earthquake will occur in a certain area. These are
only a few examples of how subjective probability is used in everyday life.

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 2.2 The Addition Rules for Probability

Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they
have no outcomes in common).

Addition Rule 1

The probability of two or more events can be determined by the addition rules. The first
addition rule is used when the events are mutually exclusive

𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

Example:

At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13 Democrats, and 6 Independents. If a

person is selected at random, find the probability that he or she is either a Democrat or
an Independent.

Solution:

𝑃(𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑡 𝑜𝑟 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡) = 𝑃(𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑡) + 𝑃(𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡)

13 6 19
= + =
39 39 39

Addition Rule 2

If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then

𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)

Example:

On New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the
probability of a person having a driving accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person
having a driving accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is the probability of a person
driving while intoxicated or having a driving accident?

Solution:

𝑃(𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡) = 𝑃(𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑) + 𝑃(𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡) − 𝑃(𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 & 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡)

𝑃(𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡) = 0.32 + 0.09 − 0.06 = 0.35

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 Figure (a) shows a Venn diagram that represents two mutually exclusive events A
and B. In this case, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B), since these events are mutually exclusive and
do not overlap. In other words, the probability of occurrence of event A or event B is the sum
of the areas of the two circles.

Figure (b) represents the probability of two events that are not mutually exclusive. In
this case, P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A and B). The area in the intersection or overlapping
part of both circles corresponds to P(A and B); and when the area of circle A is added to the
area of circle B, the overlapping part is counted twice. It must therefore be subtracted once
to get the correct area or probability.

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 2.3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more events that
occur in sequence.

For example, if you toss a coin and then roll a die, you can find the probability of getting
a head on the coin and a 4 on the die. These two events are said to be independent since
the outcome of the first event (tossing a coin) does not affect the probability outcome of
the second event (rolling a die).

Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.

Multiplication Rule 1

When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) . 𝑃(𝐵)

Example:

An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and its color
noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability
of each of these.
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
Solution:
2 2 4 1
a. 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒). 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = . = =
10 10 100 25
2 5 10 1
b. 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒). 𝑃(𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = . = =
10 10 100 10
3 2 6 3
c. 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑). 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = . = =
10 10 100 50

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 On the other hand, when the occurrence of the first event changes the probability of the
occurrence of the second event, the two events are said to be dependent.

For example, suppose a card is drawn from a deck and not replaced, and then a second
card is drawn. What is the probability of selecting an ace on the first card and a king on
the second card?

When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of
the second event in such a way that the probability is changed, the events are said to be
dependent events.

The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability

that event B occurs after event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional
probability is P(B l A). This notation does not mean that B is divided by A; rather, it means
the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred.

Multiplication Rule 2

When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) . 𝑃(𝐵 ⌉ 𝐴)

Example:

1. At a university in western Pennsylvania, there were 5 burglaries reported in 2003, 16

in 2004, and 32 in 2005. If a researcher wishes to select at random two burglaries to
further investigate, find the probability that both will have occurred in 2004.

Solution:

In this case, the events are dependent since the researcher wishes to investigate two
distinct cases. Hence the first case is selected and not replaced.

16 15 60
𝑃(𝐶1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶2 ) = 𝑃(𝐶1 ) . 𝑃(𝐶2 ⌉ 𝐶1 ) = . =
53 52 689

2. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the probability of
these events.
a. Getting 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
c. Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order
d. Getting 3 clubs
Solution:
4 3 2 24 1
a. 𝑃(3 𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑠) = . . = =
52 51 50 132,600 5525

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 4 4 4 64 8
b. 𝑃(𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = . . = =
52 51 50 132,600 16,575

13 13 13 2197 169
c. 𝑃(𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑏 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡) = . . = =
52 51 50 132,600 10,200

13 12 11 1716 11
d. 𝑃(3 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑏𝑠) = . . = =
52 51 50 132,600 850

Conditional Probability

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) . 𝑃(𝐵 ⌉ 𝐴)

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴) . 𝑃(𝐵 ⌉ 𝐴)

=
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴)

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐵 ⌉ 𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴)

The probability that the second event B occurs given that the first event A has occurred
can be found by dividing the probability that both events occurred by the probability that
the first event has occurred. The formula is

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵 ⌉ 𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)

Example:

1. The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a parking ticket is 0.06,
and the probability that Sam cannot find a legal parking space and has to park in the
no-parking zone is 0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-
parking zone. Find the probability that he will get a parking ticket.

Solution:

Let: N= parking in a no-parking zone; T = getting a ticket

Then

𝑃(𝑁 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇) 0.06

𝑃(𝑇 ⌉ 𝑁) = = = 0.
𝑃(𝑁) 0.20

Hence, Sam has a 0.30 probability of getting a parking ticket, given that he parked in a
no-parking zone.

Engr.Francia L. Abarientos,ME
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 2. A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces should
be permitted to participate in combat. The results of the survey are shown.

Gender Yes No Total

Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
Find these probabilities.
a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.
b. The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.
Solution:

Let
M =respondent was a male Y= respondent answered yes
F =respondent was a female N =respondent answered no
a. The problem is to find 𝑃(𝑌 ⌉ 𝐹). The rule states

𝑃(𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌)
𝑃(𝑌 ⌉ 𝐹) =
𝑃(𝐹)

The probability P(F and Y) is the number of females who responded yes, divided by the total
number of respondents:

8
𝑃(𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌) =
100

The probability P(F) is the probability of selecting a female:

50
𝑃(𝐹) =
100

Then,

8
𝑃(𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌) 100 4
𝑃(𝑌 ⌉ 𝐹) = = =
𝑃(𝐹) 50 25
100

b. The problem is to find 𝑃(𝑀 ⌉ 𝑁).

18
𝑃(𝑁 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀) 100 3
𝑃(𝑀 ⌉ 𝑁) = = =
𝑃(𝑁) 60 10
100

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Probabilities for “At Least”

The multiplication rules can be used with the complementary event rule to simplify solving
probability problems involving “at least.”

Example:

1. A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.

Solution:

It is easier to find the probability of the complement of the event, which is “all heads, and
then subtract the probability from 1 to get the probability of at least 1 tail.

𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸̅ )

𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠)

1 1
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = ( )5 =
2 32
1 31
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = 1 − =
32 32

Engr.Francia L. Abarientos,ME
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 2.4 Counting Rules

Counting Rules

Many times, a person must know the number of all possible outcomes for a sequence of
events. To determine this number, three rules can be used: the fundamental counting rule,
the permutation rule, and the combination rule.

The Fundamental Counting Rule

In a sequence of n events in which the first one has k1 possibilities and the second event
has k2 and the third has k3, and so forth, the total number of possibilities of the sequence
will be

𝑘1 . 𝑘2 . 𝑘3 . . . 𝑘𝑛

Note: In this case and means to multiply.

Example:

1. The manager of a department store chain wishes to make four-digit identification cards
for her employees. How many different cards can be made if she uses the digits 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, and 6 and repetitions are permitted?

Solution

Since there are 4 spaces to fill on each card and there are 6 choices for each space, the
total number of cards that can be made is 6 . 6 . 6 . 6 = 1296.

Factorial Notation

These rules use factorial notation. The factorial notation uses the exclamation point.

5! = 5.4.3.2.1

9! = 9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1

To use the formulas in the permutation and combination rules, a special definition of 0! is
needed. 0! =1.
Engr.Francia L. Abarientos,ME
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Permutations

➢ A permutation is an arrangement of n objects in a specific order.

Permutation Rule

The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is called a

permutation of n objects taking r objects at a time. It is written as nPr, and the formula is

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Example:

A television news director wishes to use 3 news stories on an evening show. One story
will be the lead story, one will be the second story, and the last will be a closing story. If
the director has a total of 8 stories to choose from, how many possible ways can the
program be set up?

Solution:

Since order is important, the solution is

8!
8𝑃3 =
(8 − 3)!

Hence, there would be 336 ways to set up the program.

Combinations

➢ A selection of distinct objects without regard to order is called a combination.

➢ Combinations are used when the order or arrangement is not important, as in the selecting
process.

Combination Rule

The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted by nCr and is
given by the formula:

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

Engr.Francia L. Abarientos,ME
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Example:

A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He decides that he can use 3 reviews

in his newspaper. How many different ways can these 3 reviews be selected?

Solution:

8! 8.7.6
8𝐶3 = = = 56
(8 − 3)! 3! 3.2.1

There are 56 possibilities.

Engr.Francia L. Abarientos,ME
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 2.5 Probability and Counting Rules

The counting rules can be combined with the probability rules in this chapter to solve
many types of probability problems. By using the fundamental counting rule, the permutation
rules, and the combination rule, you can compute the probability of outcomes of many
experiments, such as getting a full house when 5 cards are dealt or selecting a committee of
3 women and 2 men from a club consisting of 10 women and 10 men.

Example:

1. Find the probability of getting 4 aces when 5 cards are drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards.

Solution:

There are 52C5 ways to draw 5 cards from a deck. There is only 1 way to get 4 aces (i.e.,
4C4), but there are 48 possibilities to get the fifth card. Therefore, there are 48 ways to
get 4 aces and 1 other card. Hence,

4𝐶4 . 48 1 𝑋 48 48 1
𝑃(4 𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠) = = = =
52𝐶5 2,598,960 2,598,960 54,145

2. A box contains 24 transistors, 4 of which are defective. If 4 are sold at random, find the
following probabilities.
a. Exactly 2 are defective. c. All are defective.
b. None is defective. d. At least 1 is defective.

Solution:

There are 24C4 ways to sell 4 transistors, so the denominator in each case will be 10,626.

a. Two defective transistors can be selected as 4C2 and two nondefective ones as 20C2. Hence,

4𝐶2 . 20𝐶2 1140 190

𝑃(𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 2 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠) = = =
24𝐶4 10,626 1771

b. The number of ways to choose no defectives is 20C4. Hence,

20𝐶4 4845 1615

𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠) = = =
24𝐶4 10,626 3542

Engr.Francia L. Abarientos,ME
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c. The number of ways to choose 4 defectives from 4 is 4C4, or 1. Hence,

1 1
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠) = =
24𝐶4 10,626

d. To find the probability of at least 1 defective transistor, find the probability that there are
no defective transistors, and then subtract that probability from 1.
𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠)

20𝐶4 1615 1927

𝑃(𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 1 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒) = 1 − =1− =
24𝐶4 3542 3542

3. A store has 6 TV Graphic magazines and 8 Newstime magazines on the counter. If two
customers purchased a magazine, find the probability that one of each magazine was
purchased.

Solution:

6𝐶1 . 8𝐶1 6 .8 48
𝑃(1 𝑇𝑉 𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑝ℎ𝑖𝑐 𝑎𝑛𝑑 1 𝑁𝑒𝑤𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒) = = =
14𝐶2 91 91

Engr.Francia L. Abarientos,ME
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EXERCISE # 2:

NAME:________________________________________________Section:__________________

Answer the following statements below. Determine what is being asked for in the following
statements. Write your answers on the blanks provided.

1. In a classroom, there are 10 men and 6 women. If 3 students are selected at random to
give a presentation, find the probability that all 3 are women.
2. A carton contains 12 toasters, 3 of which are defective. If four toasters are sold at random,
find the probability that exactly one will be defective.
3. If 100 tickets are sold for two prizes, and one person buys two tickets, find the probability
that that person wins both prizes
4. When two dice are rolled, find the probability that one die is a 6 given that the sum of the
spots is 8.
5. Two coins are tossed. Find the probability of getting two tails if it is known that one of the
coins is a tail.
6. A card is selected from a deck. Find the probability that it is an ace given that it is a black
card.
7. Two dice are rolled. Find the probability that a number on one die is a six or the sum of
the spots is eight.
8. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the probability that the coin falls heads up or that
there is a 4 on the die
9. A package of candy contains 8 red pieces, 6 white pieces, 2 blue pieces, and 4 green
pieces. If a piece is selected at random, find the probability that it is
a. White or green. b. Blue or red.
10. On a bookshelf in a classroom there are 6 mathematics books, 5 reading books, 4 science
books, and 10 history books. If a student selects a book at random, find the probability
that the book is
a. A history book or a mathematics book.
b. A reading book or a science book

Engr.Francia L. Abarientos,ME
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REFERENCES:

Bluman, Allan G. (2009). Elementary Statistics: A Step By Step Approach, Seventh

Edition. McGraw-Hill

Triola, Mario F. (2006). Elementary statistics,10th ed. Pearson Education, Inc.

Bluman, Allan G. (2009). Probability Demystified. McGraw-Hill

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