2017 - Agent-Based Simulation Un Management and Business Economics
2017 - Agent-Based Simulation Un Management and Business Economics
www.emeraldinsight.com/2444-8451.htm
Agent-based
Agent-based simulation in simulation
management and organizational
studies: a survey
Nelson Alfonso Gómez-Cruz 313
Innovation Center, School of Management, Universidad del Rosario,
Received 1 July 2016
Bogotá, Colombia Accepted 3 August 2017
Isabella Loaiza Saa
Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Massachusetts, USA, and
Francisco Fernando Ortega Hurtado
School of Management, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive survey of the literature about the use of
agent-based simulation (ABS) in the study of organizational behavior, decision making, and problem-solving.
It aims at contributing to the consolidation of ABS as a field of applied research in management and
organizational studies.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors carried out a non-systematic search in literature published
between 2000 and 2016, by using the keyword “agent-based” to search through Scopus’ business,
management and accounting database. Additional search criteria were devised using the papers’ keywords
and the categories defined by the divisions and interest groups of the Academy of Management. The authors
found 181 articles for this survey.
Findings – The survey shows that ABS provides a robust and rigorous framework to elaborate descriptions,
explanations, predictions and theories about organizations and their processes as well as develop tools that
support strategic and operational decision making and problem-solving. The authors show that the areas
that report the highest number of applications are operations and logistics (37 percent), marketing (17 percent)
and organizational behavior (14 percent).
Originality/value – The paper illustrates the increasingly prominent role of ABS in fields such as
organizational behavior, strategy, human resources, marketing and logistics. To-date, this is the most
complete survey about ABS in all management areas.
Keywords Complexity, Agent-based simulation, Decision making, Organizational simulation,
Simulation as a method, Organizational studies
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
Today’s markets and organizations are complex systems (CS). CS are made up of
heterogeneous elements that interact with each other and the environment, generating
interdependencies across multiple spatial and temporal scales that are difficult to
understand, predict and control (Boisot and Child, 1999). A distinctive feature of CS is their
ability to exhibit complex emergent properties, i.e. counterintuitive aggregate properties
Number of
Application field Subfield papers reviewed
Operations and
logistics
37% Figure 1.
Percentage of
identified works by
application area
The use of ABS to study interactions within organizations has been centered around
the diffusion of knowledge (Wang et al., 2009) or opinions (Rouchier et al., 2014) among
institutional actors. It has also been used to study the result of these diffusion processes,
for example, the emergence of a changing organizational identity (Rousseau and
Van der Veen, 2005). Jiang et al. (2010) explored the link between employees’ behavior and
task assignment. They implemented a simulation that allowed them to determine that a
collaborative environment in which learning is encouraged and tasks are dynamically
assigned, employees’ capabilities can be increased.
Contributions in organizational psychology (Hughes et al., 2012), organizational design
(Heyne and Mönch, 2011) and organizational architecture (Rodríguez et al., 2011) we also found.
3.5 Marketing
ABS has been used in marketing, both inside and outside academia (Rand, 2013). Hence,
there are two major trends in the literature: case studies documented by consultants and
academic research encompassing theory and practice.
Case studies published by consultants (e.g. Icosystem o Ignite Technologies) include
organizations in different economic sectors. Most studies are made for large organizations,
such as Procter & Gamble, Telecom Italia, Urban Outfitters o Toyota. The former has used
simulation to quantify the release of several products on media and social networks. In order
to protect clients, consultants often restrict access to sensitive information but publish most
of their results. Concentric – an ABS consulting firm – claims that it was able to predict the
number of subscriptions for a video streaming website with less than 1 percent error. It used
detailed data from previous years to calibrate the model. The company has also
implemented a simulation for a coffee firm experiencing a decrease in sales in which market
dynamics were replicated with less than 2.2 percent error. With this model, it was able to
determine that the best strategy was to improve the product experience and increase
marketing in stores. Similarly, Ignite Technologies increased the return on investment of a
packed goods company by 15 percent using the same principle.
A literature review by Negahban and Yilmaz (2014) included 80 articles, out of 11,200,
in which ABS was used. It discusses emergent phenomena and the overall results of using
ABS for market research. According to these authors, the ABS literature in marketing can
be divided in three categories: conventional marketing, digital marketing and diffusion of
innovations. We add social marketing as fourth category.
Conventional marketing focuses on scenarios in which clients find out about new products
through conventional channels, like catalogues or at the store. Hassan and Craft (2012)
evaluated the effectiveness of market segmentation based on the customers’ perception.
The authors concluded that basic market features, such as consumer decision-making rules
and preference variability determine the performance of segmentation strategies, even in
cases in which those strategies are closely linked. Roozmand et al. (2011) also built a model
focused on segmentation dynamics. The model addresses the processes of decision making,
EJMBE validating the results with information from European countries. It sought to overcome the
26,3 lack of realism in the decision-making heuristics of traditional models. Therefore, they
included element like identity, extroversion, affability and openness in the agents’ cognitive
structure. They also included the social status and social responsibility. This shows that ABS
allows for agents as complex and realistic as the problem demands. Even though there is not a
full correspondence between the results of the model and the empirical data, the model was
320 able to determine that the cultural dimension of agents is particularly relevant for the
purchase of vehicles.
The digital market category studies scenarios in which the clients are influenced through
non-traditional means, such as online reviews, blogs or social networks (Negahban and
Yilmaz, 2014). Chang et al. (2010), for example, analyze the effect of a strategic alliance
between two small search engines to better compete with the company with the largest
market share. The model assumes that the decision to advertise in a search engine depends
on the advertiser’s individual preferences and the disposition to follow others’ decisions.
Even though market share of the biggest company is larger than the share of the two small
companies, the simulation reveals that the alliance allows the two companies to take over
the bigger company. This category also involves digital markets in which producers and
clients meet and interact online. ABS could be used, for instance, to study the impact of
e-commerce on organizational structures (Siggelkow and Levinthal, 2003) or supply chains
(Zhang and Bhattacharyya, 2010).
Diffusion of innovations pertains to the uptake of new products and innovations. Most
applications found by Negahban and Yilmaz (2014), 37 articles, are on this topic (here we
consider 12). Diffusion models study adoption behavior and social influences to understand
the role of heterogeneity, interaction dynamics, network effects and promotion strategies.
Recent models analyze the effect of word-of-mouth on the perception of product attributes
(Goldenberg et al., 2001). Other applications include models that provide time-price
strategies for new products releases in the mobile phone market (Lee et al., 2014).
The last category, social marketing, is less developed than the other three and is not
considered by Negahban and Yilmaz. Nonetheless, it is an important category that should
be included in this survey. Marketing goods or services is different from “marketing”
a cause or idea.
The model by Pérez-Mujica et al. (2014) about an ecotourism campaign for a zone of
wetlands conservation is an instance of these kind of models. Results suggested that the
ecological state of the wetlands depends on the design of the social marketing campaign.
5. Conclusions
In this paper we provided an overview of impact of ABOS with the intent to consolidate its
standing as a field of research. ABOS proved to have a rich variety of practical and
theoretical approaches to management and organizational studies (Secchi and Neumann,
2016; Wall, 2016; Fioretti, 2012; Chang, 2006).
There have been many independent efforts to build ABS frameworks and agent
architectures focused on organizations (Moise or Thomas); create consultancy firms that
make use of ABS (Icosystem, Concentric or ABM Analytics); develop simulation platforms
(AnyLogic) and publish academic literature and patents that use this method. We believe
the time is ripe to embark on an agenda-setting endeavor and promote an effective dialogue
among scholars. We hope that this paper is a step in that direction.
ABOS gives way to a generative view of organizations and their processes. It supports
high-level abstractions, aimed at explaining and formalizing organizational dynamics.
Further, it gives managers and decision-makers detailed models that can be empirically
calibrated to support decision making, prediction and optimization in strategic, tactical or
operational scenarios.
From a theoretical point of view, ABS is a third way of approaching reality, along with
induction and deduction (Axelrod, 1997). From the practical point of view, integrating ABOS
with data science, machine learning, complex network analysis and bio-inspired computation
will become increasingly common. We believe that the development of hybrid technologies
mediated by ABS is the future of decision making and organizational problem-solving tools.
Note
1. See the journal Computational Management Science and the series Advances in Computational
Management Science, both published by Springer-Verlag.
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Corresponding author
Nelson Alfonso Gómez-Cruz can be contacted at: [email protected]
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