Binomial Distribution

Qn) In a family with 6 children, excluding multiple births, what is the probability of having exactly 2 girls?
Assume that having a boy is as likely as having a girl at each birth.
𝑛
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑘) = ( ) 𝑝𝑘 (1 − 𝑝) 𝑛−𝑘
𝑘
n is the number of trials

p is the probability of success

k is the number of successes

n=6 (number of children), k=2 (number of girls), p=0.5 (probability of having a girl or boy)

6
𝑃( 𝑋 = 2) = ( ) ∗ 0.52 ∗ 0.54
2
Qn) It is known that a certain basketball player will successfully make a free throw 88.15% of the time. Suppose that the basketball player
attempts to make 10 free throws. What is the probability that the basketball player will make at least 7 free throws?

n=10 (number of trials), p=0.8815(probability of success), X is the number of successful free throws

𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 7) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 7) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 8) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 9) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 10)

Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of free throws that are made by the basketball player. Find the expected valu e
and standard deviation of the random variable.

𝐸 (𝑋) = 𝑛 ⋅ 𝑝

𝜎(𝑋) = √𝑛 ⋅ 𝑝 ⋅ (1 − 𝑝)

Poisson distribution

𝝀𝒌 𝒆−𝝀
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒌) =
𝒌!
Qn) A certain typing agency employs two typists. The average number of errors per article is 3.13.1 when typed by the first typist
and 1.41.4 when typed by the second. If your article is equally likely to be typed by either typist, find the probability that it will h ave no
errors.

𝜆0 𝑒−𝜆
𝑃( 𝑋 = 0) = = 𝑒− 𝜆  No errors
0!

1 1
𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟𝑠) = × 𝑃(𝑋 = 0 ∣ 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑖𝑠𝑡 1) + × 𝑃(𝑋 = 0 ∣ 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑖𝑠𝑡 2)
2 2
hypergeometric distribution

(𝑴𝒌 )(𝑵−𝑴
𝒏−𝒌
)
𝑷 ( 𝑿 = 𝒌) =
(𝑵𝒏)

Qn) A jar holds 18 cookies, 10 are chocolate-chip cookies, and 8 are brussel-spout-with-turnip-chips cookies. You pick 5 cookies at
random. What is the probability that you get exactly 3 of the brussel-spout-with-turnip-chips cookies?

N=18 is the total number of cookies, M=8 is the number of brussel-spout-with-turnip-chips cookies, n=5 is the number of cookies
selected, k=3 is the number of brussel-spout-with-turnip-chips cookies we want to select.

Qn) Suppose that you randomly draw one card from a standard deck of 52 cards. After writing down which card was drawn, you replac e
the card, and draw another card. You repeat this process until you have drawn 18 cards in all. What is the probability of dra wing at least 7
hearts?

𝑃( 𝑋 ≥ 7) = 1 − 𝑃( 𝑋 ≤ 6)

𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 6) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝑋 = 6)

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑘) = (18
𝑘
)⋅ 0.25𝑘 ⋅ 0.7518−𝑘 = 0.13899

Qn) In each part, assume the random variable X has a binomial distribution with the given parameters. Compute the probability of the
event.
(a) n=6,p=0.9 Pr(X=6)=0.5314 (b) n=3,p=0.2 Pr(X=0)=0.512 (c) n=4,p=0.4 Pr(X=2)=0.3456 (d) n=3,p=0.5 Pr(X=1)=0.375

probability density function (PDF)

Steps to find c:
𝒃
1: integral to = 1: ∫𝒂 𝒇( 𝒙) 𝒅𝒙 = 𝟏
𝟒
2: substitute the given PDF: 𝒄 ∗ ∫𝟎 (𝟒𝒙 − 𝒙𝟐 )𝒅𝒙 = 𝟏

𝟒 𝟒 𝟑
𝒙 𝟔𝟒 𝟔𝟒 𝟑𝟐 𝟑𝟐 𝟑
3: evaluate & solve for c∫𝟎 𝟒𝒙𝒅𝒙 − ∫𝟎 −𝒙𝟐 𝒅𝒙 = [𝟐𝒙𝟐] 𝟒𝟎 = 𝟐 ( 𝟏𝟔 ) = 𝟑𝟐, [ ] 𝟒𝟎 = → 𝟑𝟐 − = ,𝒙 ∗ = 𝟏. 𝒙 =
𝟑 𝟑 𝟑 𝟑 𝟑 𝟑𝟐

To find CDF:

Values below support: ALWAYS 0

𝒙
Values within support: 𝑭( 𝒙) = ∫𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒊𝒎𝒖𝒎 𝒔𝒖𝒑𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕
𝒇( 𝒕 )𝒅𝒕 𝒇𝒐𝒓 ____________ < −𝒅𝒆𝒑𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔 on support

Values above support: ALWAYS

∞
GENERAL EXPECTATION FORMULA : 𝑬( 𝑿 ) = ∫−∞ 𝒙(𝒇( 𝒙)𝒅𝒙

BAYES THEREOM

𝑃(𝐵| 𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃( 𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

law of total probability

𝑷(𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑩 ∣ 𝑨𝟏) ⋅ 𝑷(𝑨𝟏) + 𝑷(𝑩∣ 𝑨𝟐) ⋅ 𝑷(𝑨𝟐) + ⋯ + 𝑷(𝑩 ∣ 𝑨𝒏) ⋅ 𝑷(𝑨𝒏)

𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒖𝒍𝒂 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒋𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) ⋅ 𝑷(𝑩 ∣ 𝑨)

Expected Value E(X)

𝟐
𝑬( 𝑿 ) = ∑ 𝑷(𝒙𝒊 ) ∗ 𝒙𝒊 , 𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿 ) = 𝑬( 𝑿 𝟐) − (𝑬( 𝑿) ) ,𝒘𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒆 𝑬( 𝑿𝟐) = ∑ 𝑷(𝒙𝒊 ) ∗ 𝒙𝒊 𝟐
𝒊 𝒊

Qn) Suppose that from a standard deck, you draw three cards without replacement. What is the expected number of face cards (not
including aces) that you will draw?

Total number of cards in the deck: There are 52 cards in a standard deck.

Face cards: There are 12 face cards in total (4 Jacks, 4 Queens, and 4 Kings).

Non-face cards: There are 40 non-face cards (52 total cards - 12 face cards).

The expected number of face cards: For each card you draw, there is a certain probability of drawing a face card. If we consider the
indicator random variable Xi for the i-th card drawn (where Xi=1 if the card is a face card and Xi=0 otherwise), the expected value of Xi is:

𝐸(𝑋𝑖) = 𝑃(𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑)The probability of drawing a face card from a deck of 52 cards is:

12 3
𝑃( 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑) = =
52 13
Qn) A raffle is being held at a benefit concert. The prizes are awarded as follows: 1 grand prize of $5,800.00, 3 prizes of $660.00, 5 prize
of $70.00, and 12 prizes of $25.00.

Suppose 14500 raffle tickets are sold, if you buy one ticket for $1.00 then what is your expected value for this raffle?

1 3 5 12
𝐸( 𝑋) = ( ∗ 5800) + ( ∗ 660) + ( ∗ 70) + ( ∗ 25) − 1
14500 14500 14500 14500
∑(𝑥 ∗ 𝑓)
𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝜇 = , 𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑠, 𝑓 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦, 𝑁 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟
𝑁
∑ 𝑓(𝑥 − 𝑥̅) 2
𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑠2 = , 𝑥̅ 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛( 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒) ,𝑁 𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟,𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑠, 𝑓 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦
𝑁 −1