Conditional Probability - Year 2 Statistics PhysicsAndMathsTutor.

com

Q5.

The heights of females from a country are normally distributed with

• a mean of 166.5 cm P ( 166 5 , 6

.
.
1 )

• a standard deviation of 6.1 cm

Given that 1% of females from this country are shorter than k cm,

(a) find the value of k 152 3 cm

.

(2)
(b) Find the proportion of females from this country with heights between 150 cm and 175
cm 0 9148
.

(1)
A female, from this country, is chosen at random from those with heights between 150 cm
and 175 cm

-31605 698567
(c) Find the probability that her height is more than 160 cm P ( 15 C

= 1 . 0678
=

(4)
The heights of females from a different country are normally distributed with a standard
deviation of 7.4 cm

Mia believes that the mean height of females from this country is less than 166.5 cm

Mia takes a random sample of 50 females from this country and finds the mean of her
sample is 164.6 cm P ( 164 6 7 4 ]
,
, .

(d) Carry out a suitable test to assess Mia's belief.

You should Ho = 166 5 ,

H , < 166 5 .

152 428
•
is
P ( 164 6 , 7 4 )
state your hypotheses clearly 05 of
,

0 .
,
.

• use a 5% level of significance 152 428 < 166 5

.
.

is sufficient eridence to alceptHo

there
Mid is corurect
as
:

(4)
, 7 . 4}
PrN / 164 . 6

0 5
λ< 166 5 )
=
P( .

(Total for question = 11 marks)

.

0 530 05
. .

as
∴ Mia is incorect

there isnf
sufficient
evidemlh fo alcept Ho
Hypothesis Testing - Tests on Binomial - Year 1 Statistics PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com

Questions

Q1.

(a) The discrete random variable X ~ B(40, 0.27)

Find P(X ≥ 16)
P (x≤ 15 |= 0 G 4907
.
. .
(2)
Past records suggest that 30% of customers who buy baked beans from a large
supermarket buy them in single tins. A new manager suspects that there has been a change
in the proportion of customers who buy baked beans in single tins. A random sample of 20
customers who had bought baked beans was taken.

(b) Write down the hypotheses that should be used to test the manager's suspicion.
HO : β= 0 3
(1)
.
.

H 1 : PF 0 3 .

(c) Using a 10% level of significance, find the critical region for a two-tailed test to answer
the manager's suspicion. You should state the probability of rejection in each tail, which
should be less than 0.05 lower tail upper tail
9753 Ta = 0 024 0 05
1 0
.
.

P ( X ≥ 16 )
-

0 O5
.
:

P ( X≤ 5 ] = 0 02349 < .

051 > 0 05
(3)
.

P ( X ≥ 15 |= 1 - 0 . 949 = 0 .
.

P ( X≤ 6) = 0 . 05730 05.

C1 = 5 [ I = 16

(d) Find the actual significance level of a test based on your critical region from part (c).
0 02349 + 0 .
0247 = 0 . 04819
(1)
.

One afternoon the manager observes that 12 of the 20 customers who bought baked beans,
bought their beans in single tins.

(e) Comment on the manager's suspicion in the light of this observation.

(1)
Later it was discovered that the local scout group visited the supermarket that afternoon to
buy food for their camping trip.

(f) Comment on the validity of the model used to obtain the answer to part (e), giving a
reason for your answer.
(1)

(Total for question = 9 marks)

 Hypothesis Testing - Tests on Binomial - Year 1 Statistics PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com

Q2.

Naasir is playing a game with two friends. The game is designed to be a game of chance so

that the probability of Naasir winning each game is

PrB [ 15 , ]
Naasir and his friends play the game 15 times.

(a) Find the probability that Naasir wins

2) 059946
(i) exactly 2 games, B ( x 0
= =
.

. 40406 .
= 0 595935
X > 5 } =| - ( λ≤ 4 ) = 1 - .

(ii) more than 5 games. p

… ,
0

(
P

(3)

Naasir claims he has a method to help him win more than of the games. To test this
claim, the three of them played the game again 32 times and Naasir won 16 of these games.

(b) Stating your hypotheses clearly, test Naasir's claim at the 5% level of significance.
Ho : P =
(4)
HiiP > 亨
XB
~ ( 32 , ) (Total for question = 7 marks)
( X ≤ 15 ) =
1
- . 96234 .
) =| -
0

p x>
…

( 16
P

= 0 .
03765

0 .
037653 < 0 O .
5
Ho
to reject
There isn ' t
sufficient eridence
:
马
高
Hypothesis Testing - Tests on Binomial - Year 1 Statistics PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com

Q3.

Past records show that 15% of customers at a shop buy chocolate. The shopkeeper believes
that moving the chocolate closer to the till will increase the proportion of customers buying
chocolate.

After moving the chocolate closer to the till, a random sample of 30 customers is taken
and 8 of them are found to have bought chocolate.

Julie carries out a hypothesis test, at the 5% level of significance, to test the shopkeeper's
belief.

Julie's hypothesis test is shown below.

H0 : p = 0.15
H1 : p ≥ 0.15
Let X = the number of customers who buy chocolate.
X ~ B(30, 0.15)
P(X = 8) = 0.0420
0.0420 < 0.05 so reject H0
There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the proportion of customers buying
chocolate has increased.
(a) Identify the first two errors that Julie has made in her hypothesis test.
instead of ≥ be P ( X > 8)
0 . 15 P ( x = 8 ) sbould
H1 : P >
(2)
(b) Explain whether or not these errors will affect the conclusion of her hypothesis test.
P (X≤ 7]
YesbecauseP ( x > 8 ) 6
=

Give a reason for your answer.

-

(1)
(c) Find, using a 5% level of significance, the critical region for a one-tailed test of the
shopkeeper's belief. The probability in the tail should be less than 0.05
9722
P (x ≤7} 1 9302 =
06978 P [ x <φ ] =| P ( X ≤δ ) = 1 0
(2)
-

0
P ( λ< 8 ) 1 0
,
= - - .

-
= . .

= 0 . 0278 卫
(d) Find the actual level of significance of this test. critcal region is 9

(1)

(Total for question = 6 marks)

Hypothesis Testing - Tests on Binomial - Year 1 Statistics PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com

Q4.

Afrika works in a call centre.

She assumes that calls are independent and knows, from past experience, that on each
sales call

that she makes there is a probability of that it is successful.

Afrika makes 9 sales calls. P ~ B { 9, ]

(a) Calculate the probability that at least 3 of these sales calls will be successful.
P ( x≤ 3] 951978 0 048021
P ( λ≥ 3 ) =| 1 0
(2)
=
- = -

.
. … .

The probability of Afrika making a successful sales call is the same each day.

Afrika makes 9 sales calls on each of 5 different days.

(b) Calculate the probability that at least 3 of the sales calls will be successful on exactly 1
of these days. X B(5 048021 ]
~
,
0 .

P ( X ≤ 3) 2 5567 X 105
P ( x ≥ 3 ) =|
-
=

(2)
.

Rowan works in the same call centre as Afrika and believes he is a more successful
salesperson.

To check Rowan's belief, Afrika monitors the next 35 sales calls Rowan makes and finds
that 11 of the sales calls are successful.

(c) Stating your hypotheses clearly test, at the 5% level of significance, whether or not
there is evidence to support Rowan's belief.
Ho P 它 : = (4)
H1: P> 它
X ~ B ( 35 , 元) (Total for question = 8 marks)
P( X >1 ) =|
-

P ( λ≤ 11 ] = 1 -
0 .
9912 . .

= 8 . 7153 × 103

103 < 0 05 belieG

8 7153 Ronan's
× .

eridence to support
.

There isn sufficient

t
'
∴

Ho
reject
Normal Distribution - Year 2 Statistics PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com

Questions

Q1.

A machine cuts strips of metal to length L cm, where L is normally distributed with standard
deviation 0.5 cm.

Strips with length either less than 49 cm or greater than 50.75 cm cannot be used.

98
Given that 2.5% of the cut lengths exceed 50.98 cm, 97 5 % lessthan 50 .
1. %
.

(a) find the probability that a randomly chosen strip of metal can be used.
normal ?
P - N (4, 0 .
5) we don' t knowthe
(5)
Ten strips of metal are selected at random.

(b) Find the probability fewer than 4 of these strips cannot be used.
(2)
A second machine cuts strips of metal of length X cm, where X is normally distributed with
standard deviation 0.6 cm

A random sample of 15 strips cut by this second machine was found to have a mean length
of 50.4 cm PrN [ 50 4 6] . ,
0 .

(c) Stating your hypotheses clearly and using a 1% level of significance, test whether or not
the mean length of all the strips, cut by the second machine, is greater than 50.1 cm
Ho : 6} = 50 H ,
(5)
Hi : B > 50 1 .

N ( 50 4 , 0 6]
P~ .
.

P ( λ> 50 1 ) .
= 0 .
6914 (Total for question = 12 marks)
0 6914 30 01 5
% signiFicanie
hypothesisaf
.

the null
.

sufficient eridence to acept

: There is
 Normal Distribution - Year 2 Statistics PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com

Q4.

The lifetime, L hours, of a battery has a normal distribution with mean 18 hours and standard
deviation 4 hours. PrNE 18 4 ] ,

Alice's calculator requires 4 batteries and will stop working when any one battery reaches
the end of its lifetime.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected battery will last for longer than 16 hours.
69146
> 16 )
(1)
0
PK =
.

At the start of her exams Alice put 4 new batteries in her calculator.
She has used her calculator for 16 hours, but has another 4 hours of exams to sit.

(b) Find the probability that her calculator will not stop working for Alice's remaining exams.
(5)
Alice only has 2 new batteries so, after the first 16 hours of her exams, although her
calculator is still working, she randomly selects 2 of the batteries from her calculator and
replaces these with the 2 new batteries.

(c) Show that the probability that her calculator will not stop working for the remainder of her
exams is 0.199 to 3 significant figures.
(3)
After her exams, Alice believed that the lifetime of the batteries was more than 18 hours.
She took a random sample of 20 of these batteries and found that their mean lifetime was
19.2 hours.

(d) Stating your hypotheses clearly and using a 5% level of significance, test Alice's belief.
Ho : 4 = 18
(5)
Hi :
ψ> 18

P 118 ,
(Total for question = 14 marks)
2
19 . 6
2 = =

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