Indian Institute of Technology Ropar

Department of Mathematics
MA-203 & 423 - Probability & Stochastic Process
2nd semester of academic year 2024-25

Tutorial-1

1. Answer of first two questions

2. Riya is bringing two books on her vacation: Atomic Habits and Rich dad & Poor
Dad. There is a 0.5 probability that she will like Atomic Habits, a 0.4 probability
that she will like Rich Dad & Poor Dad, and a 0.3 probability that she will like
both books. What is the probability that Riya will like neither of the books?

To find the probability that Mia will like neither Atomic Habits nor Rich Dad
Poor Dad, we can use the formula for the union of two events.
Let:
P (A) = 0.5 (probability that Riya likes Atomic Habits),
P (B) = 0.4 (probability that Riya likes Rich Dad Poor Dad ),
P (A ∩ B) = 0.3 (probability that Riya likes both books).

The probability that riya likes at least one of the books is given by the formula
for the union of two events:

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

Substitute the values:

P (A ∪ B) = 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.3 = 0.6

 So, the probability that Riya likes at least one of the books is 0.6.
To find the probability that riya likes neither book, we subtract the probability of
liking at least one book from 1:
P (neither) = 1 − P (A ∪ B) = 1 − 0.6 = 0.4

Therefore, the probability that riya will like neither Atomic Habits nor Rich Dad
Poor Dad is 0.4.
3. Romeo and Juliet will each arrive at the meeting place at a random time between
0 and 1 hour. They will meet if the absolute difference between their arrival times
is less than or equal to 15 minutes (0.25 hours). The first person to arrive waits
for 15 minutes, and if the other person has not arrived within that time, they will
leave.
Define the Variables:
Let:

• x be the arrival time of Romeo, and

• y be the arrival time of Juliet.

Both x and y are uniformly distributed between 0 and 1 hour. We are looking for
the probability that |x − y| ≤ 0.25.

Geometric Representation:
The problem can be visualized as a unit square with x on the horizontal axis and
y on the vertical axis. Both x and y can take any value between 0 and 1. The to-
tal area of possible outcomes is 1, as both x and y range from 0 to 1.

Condition for Meeting:

Romeo and Juliet will meet if |x − y| ≤ 0.25, which can be rewritten as two in-
equalities:
−0.25 ≤ x − y ≤ 0.25
This condition describes a region in the unit square where the difference between
x and y is no greater than 0.25.

Geometric Interpretation:
The region where |x − y| ≤ 0.25 is a band of width 0.5 centered along the line
x = y. The area of this region consists of all the points within the unit square
where the difference between the arrival times is less than or equal to 0.25.

Calculate the Area of the Favorable Region:

The region where |x − y| ≤ 0.25 can be found by subtracting the areas of the two
triangles where |x − y| > 0.25. These triangles are located at the top left and
bottom right corners of the unit square. The base and height of each triangle are
0.75 (since the difference between the two arrival times exceeds 0.25). The area of
one of these triangles is:
1
Area of one triangle = × 0.75 × 0.75 = 0.28125
2
Since there are two triangles, the total area of the triangles is:

Total area of the triangles = 2 × 0.28125 = 0.5625

Therefore, the area of the favorable region where |x − y| ≤ 0.25 is:

Area of favorable region = 1 − 0.5625 = 0.4375

 Probability Calculation:
The probability that Romeo and Juliet will meet is the ratio of the favorable area
to the total area of the square:
Area of favorable region 0.4375
P (meeting) = = = 0.4375
Total area 1

Final Answer:
The probability that Romeo and Juliet will meet is 0.4375 or 43.75% .

4. A group consists of 6 men and 6 women, making a total of 12 people. We are ran-
domly dividing this group into 2 smaller groups, each with 6 people. We want
to calculate the probability that both groups will have the same number of men,
meaning each group has exactly 3 men and 3 women.

Step-by-Step Solution
Total Number of Ways to Divide the Group:
First, we need to determine how many ways we can divide the 12 people into 2
groups of 6. This is simply a combination problem. The total number of ways to
select 6 people from 12 is given by:
 
12 12! 12!
= = = 924
6 6!(12 − 6)! 6!6!

Favorable Outcomes (Both Groups Having 3 Men and 3 Women):

We need both groups to have exactly 3 men and 3 women. We can break this
problem into two parts:

• First, select 3 men for one of the groups from the 6 men. The number of
ways to do this is:  
6 6! 6!
= = = 20
3 3!(6 − 3)! 3!3!
• Then, select 3 women for the same group from the 6 women. The number of
ways to do this is:  
6
= 20
3

So, the total number of favorable ways to select 3 men and 3 women for one group
is:
   
6 6
× = 20 × 20 = 400
3 3

Calculate the Probability:

 The probability that the two groups will have the same number of men is the ra-
tio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes. Therefore, the probability is:

6
× 63



3 400
P (same number of men) = 12

=
6
924

The probability that both groups will have the same number of men is:

100
231

5. Answer 6
6. solution 7

7. A fair 4-sided die is rolled twice and we assume that all sixteen possible outcomes
are equally likely. Let X and Y be the result of the 1st and the 2nd roll, respec-
tively. We wish to determine the conditional probability P (A|B) where:

• A = {max(X, Y ) = m}
 • B = {min(X, Y ) = 2}

where m takes each of the values 1, 2, 3, and 4.

Solution explanation
The conditional probability P (A|B) is given by:

P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) =
P (B)
Step 1: Find P (B)
Event B is the condition that the minimum of X and Y is 2, i.e., min(X, Y ) = 2.
For this event to occur, the outcomes must satisfy one of the following: - X = 2
and Y = 2 - X = 2 and Y = 3 - X = 2 and Y = 4 - X = 3 and Y = 2 - X = 4
and Y = 2
Thus, there are 5 favorable outcomes for B, and since all 16 outcomes are equally
likely, the probability of B is:

5
P (B) =
16
Step 2: Find P (A ∩ B)
Event A is the condition that max(X, Y ) = m, and event B is that min(X, Y ) =
2. We will compute P (A ∩ B) for each value of m.
- For m = 1, there are no outcomes where max(X, Y ) = 1 and min(X, Y ) = 2, so:

P (A ∩ B|m = 1) = 0

- For m = 2, we have the outcome X = Y = 2. So there is 1 favorable outcome,

and:
1
P (A ∩ B|m = 2) =
16
- For m = 3, we have the outcomes X = 2, Y = 3 or X = 3, Y = 2. So there are 2
favorable outcomes, and:
2
P (A ∩ B|m = 3) =
16
- For m = 4, we have the outcomes X = 2, Y = 4 or X = 4, Y = 2. So there are 2
favorable outcomes, and:
2
P (A ∩ B|m = 4) =
16
Step 3: Compute the Conditional Probabilities
Now, we can compute P (A|B) for each value of m:
- For m = 1:
P (A ∩ B|m = 1) 0
P (A|B|m = 1) = = 5 =0
P (B) 16

- For m = 2:
1
P (A ∩ B|m = 2) 16 1
P (A|B|m = 2) = = 5 =
P (B) 16
5

- For m = 3:
2
P (A ∩ B|m = 3) 16 2
P (A|B|m = 3) = = 5 =
P (B) 16
5

- For m = 4:
2
P (A ∩ B|m = 4) 16 2
P (A|B|m = 4) = = 5 =
P (B) 16
5

The conditional probabilities are:

 1 2 2
P (A|B|m = 1) = 0, P (A|B|m = 2) = , P (A|B|m = 3) = , P (A|B|m = 4) =
5 5 5

8. Answer 9

9. Question:
Consider the flights starting from Paris to London. Among these flights, 85%
depart on time and arrive on time, 8% depart on time and arrive late, 3% depart
late and arrive on time, and 4% depart late and arrive late. What is the probabil-
ity that, given a flight is delayed, it will arrive on time?

Solution:
Let: - A represent the event that a flight arrives on time. - D represent the event
that a flight is delayed (i.e., the flight departs late).
We are asked to find P (A|D), the probability that a flight arrives on time given
that it was delayed.
From the problem, we have the following probabilities: - P (A ∩ on time) = 0.85
(flight departs on time and arrives on time) - P (A ∩ late) = 0.03 (flight departs
late but arrives on time) - P (on time ∩ late) = 0.08 (flight departs on time but
arrives late) - P (late ∩ late) = 0.04 (flight departs late and arrives late)
We are looking for P (A|D), which is given by the conditional probability formula:

P (A ∩ D)
P (A|D) =
P (D)

Find P (D) (Probability that the flight is delayed) A flight is delayed if it departs
late. Therefore:

P (D) = P (late ∩ on time) + P (late ∩ late) = 0.03 + 0.04 = 0.07

Find P (A ∩ D) (Probability that the flight is delayed and arrives on time) From
the problem, the probability that a flight departs late and arrives on time is:

P (A ∩ D) = 0.03

Compute P (A|D) Now, using the formula for conditional probability:

P (A ∩ D) 0.03 3
P (A|D) = = =
P (D) 0.07 7
Thus, the probability that, given a flight is delayed, it will arrive on time is:

3
≈ 0.4286
7

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