ABSTRACT

FINDLEY, DANIEL JONATHAN. A Comprehensive Two-Lane, Rural Road Horizontal

Curve Study Procedure. (Under the direction of Joseph E. Hummer and William Rasdorf.)

Horizontal curves are relatively dangerous features, with collision rates typically three times
that of comparable tangent sections on average. To help make these segments safer, this
research developed a comprehensive study procedure for rural, two-lane horizontal curves.
To provide the basis for a comprehensive procedure, this research includes an examination of
curve crash characteristics, an investigation of study methods for geometric characteristics,

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and recommendations for potential countermeasures. A complete and accurate data set on a
horizontal curve is important for a transportation agency to make a well-informed decision
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on possible improvements that could enhance the safety of the roadway. However, many
agencies do not know curve radii or lengths because drawings do not exist and inventories
are not available.
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Typically, the analysis of a horizontal curve or set of curves for safety purposes by a highway
agency is based on field visits and the judgment of experienced personnel. Many agencies
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rely on a drive-through by an engineer or technician and a small set of countermeasures that

have proven themselves through the years. Analytical tools for curves have existed for a
number of years; however, such tools have not been widely implemented due to the large
number of competing highway safety objectives, real or perceived difficulties in collecting
the necessary data, and calibrating models for local conditions, among other reasons. The
publication of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) offers the chance to overcome this
impasse and get agencies to use crash models routinely. The HSM contains a crash
prediction model for horizontal curves and estimates of crash modification factors (CMFs)
for the most popular curve countermeasures. The model and CMFs have been approved by a
committee of leading safety researchers and practitioners, which provides credibility to the
tools. Application of the HSM is expected to be an appropriate methodology to identify
curves with higher than normal crash potential, to be used to complement collision-based
methods for curve safety analysis. This research developed a CMF to account for the effect
of nearby curves on safety that can supplement HSM procedures.

Several contributions to the practice of transportation engineering have resulted from this
research. This research presents a new horizontal curve study method procedure to ensure a
systematic approach for identifying curves, studying and measuring their characteristics, and
improving hazardous locations. This research quantifies the collision characteristics of
horizontal curves and created a linking of common horizontal curve collision types and
effective countermeasures, which provides an engineer with the necessary information to
identify and correct hazardous curves. This research recommends study methods for
geometric characteristics which allows an engineer to most effectively and efficiently

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measure, define, and analyze horizontal curves to determine their predicted safety
performance. The focus of these study methods is office procedures for collecting horizontal
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curve data, which are generally more efficient than field methods. This research establishes a
set of parameters to which safety can be related through spatial and geometrical features.
Safety was related geometrically through the establishment of guidance for horizontal curves
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for the implementation of the nationally accepted prediction model for roadways, presented
in the Highway Safety Manual. Safety was related spatially through the impact of spatial
relationships on horizontal curve safety using the predictive methodology of the Highway
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Safety Manual as a foundation for incorporating spatial considerations into horizontal curve
safety prediction.

The comprehensive curve study method procedure includes: horizontal curve identification,
investigation and inventory, analysis, evaluation, and a recommendation of appropriate
countermeasures. A systematic approach for identifying, investigating, analyzing, and
evaluating horizontal curves can lead to the selection and evaluation of promising curves, and
a recommendation of appropriate countermeasures.
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© Copyright 2011 by Daniel Jonathan Findley
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All Rights Reserved
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 A Comprehensive Two-Lane, Rural Road Horizontal Curve Study Procedure

by
Daniel Jonathan Findley

A dissertation submitted to the Graduate Faculty of

North Carolina State University
in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the Degree of
Doctor of Philosophy

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Civil Engineering
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Raleigh, North Carolina
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2011

APPROVED BY:
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________________________________ ________________________________
Dr. Joseph Hummer, Co-Chair Dr. William Rasdorf, Co-Chair

________________________________ ________________________________
Dr. Nagui Rouphail Dr. Hugh Devine
 UMI Number: 3497241

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In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript
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a note will indicate the deletion.

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UMI 3497241
Copyright 2012 by ProQuest LLC.
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All rights reserved. This edition of the work is protected against
unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code.
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 DEDICATION

This dissertation is dedicated to my family and the educators I have had the privilege of
learning from throughout my life. My entire family has supported me in all of my academic
aspirations, for which I am eternally grateful.

To my wife, Rachel, who provided unwavering support throughout my graduate education

and the initial encouragement to start this endeavor.

To my daughter, Sophia, who provided inspiration and an often needed diversion from my
studies.

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To my parents, Frank and Jan, who provided immeasurable experiences and guidance that
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instilled a passion for learning and exploration.
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To my grandmothers, Jane and Barbara, whose kindness and praise always encouraged me
and my grandfathers, whose academic and professional accomplishments have inspired me.

To my sisters, Amy and Julie, who willingly supported my engineering curiosity with
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countless toys to reverse engineer.

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 BIOGRAPHY

Mr. Daniel J. Findley has a broad range of transportation experiences and skills. He is
currently a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Transportation Research and
Education (ITRE) who has played a major role in the several projects relating to many fields
of transportation including: pedestrian, highway, ferry, aviation, and bicycle. Mr. Findley
also possesses a Professional Engineer’s (PE) license in the state of North Carolina. Mr.
Findley is the son of Frank and Jan Findley. He was raised in Robbinsville, NC and
graduated as the valedictorian of Robbinsville High School in 2001. After high school, he
attended North Carolina State University and graduated Summa Cum Laude with a Bachelor
of Science in Civil Engineering degree in 2005 and a Master of Science in Civil Engineering

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degree in 2006.
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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to acknowledge the help and support of numerous individuals who assisted in
the completion of my research. Dr. Joseph Hummer and Dr. William Rasdorf served as co-
chairs for my committee and were instrumental in supporting and guiding my research
efforts. The experience through this research in the realm of highway design and highway
safety have been immense and allowed for my growth as a transportation professional. Dr.
Nagui Rouphail and Dr. Hugh Devine were committee members and also provided
meaningful feedback on my research. I appreciate the time and effort each of my committee
members have demonstrated. I’m truly grateful for my experience as a student at NC State,
where I have the opportunity to work closely with some of the top transportation researchers

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in the United States. I would also like to express my sincere gratitude for the opportunity to
work with and learn from Charles Zegeer at the UNC Highway Safety Research Center.
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I am appreciative for the support I have had at the Institute of Transportation Research and
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Education (ITRE) from my colleagues and supervisors. My supervisor, Robert Foyle, has
provided me with valuable experience which was important for my growth as an engineer
and researcher. I would also like to thank Christopher Cunningham and Dr. Bastian
Schroeder for their collaboration on many research projects which has enabled me to gain
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much appreciated experience.

I would also like to thank the North Carolina Department of Transportation who funded the
research project that formed this basis of this dissertation work. I had the privilege to work
with many individuals at the North Carolina Department of Transportation who provided
excellent support and direction, including: Brian Mayhew, Brian Murphy, and Shawn Troy
with the Traffic Safety Systems Section; Jay Bennett and the Roadway Design Unit; Jennifer
Brandenburg and the State Road Management Unit; and Charlie Brown and Betsy Pope of
the Locations and Surveys Unit.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... xi

List of Figures ........................................................................................................................ xiii

1.0 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1

1.1 Step 1: Site Identification ......................................................................................... 2

1.2 Step 2: Office Data Acquisition ............................................................................... 3

1.3 Step 3: Collision Data Analysis ............................................................................... 3

1.4 Step 4: Curve Characteristics Analysis .................................................................... 4

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1.5 Step 5: Collision Data and Curve Characteristics Findings ..................................... 5

1.6 Step 6: Field Data Acquisition and Confirmation .................................................... 5

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1.7 Step 7: Recommendations ........................................................................................ 5

1.8 Research Objectives ................................................................................................. 6

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1.9 Significance of the Research .................................................................................... 7

1.10 Research Scope and Limitations .............................................................................. 8

1.11 Dissertation Organization......................................................................................... 9

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2.0 Literature Review ................................................................................................... 10

2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 10

2.2 Collision Characteristics and Geometric Design Features ..................................... 11

2.3 Horizontal Curve Study Methods .......................................................................... 14

2.3.1 Ball-Bank Indicator Method ............................................................................... 14

2.3.2 Compass Method ................................................................................................ 15

2.3.3 Direct Method ..................................................................................................... 15

2.3.4 Lateral Acceleration Method .............................................................................. 16

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 2.3.5 Yaw Rate Transducer Method ............................................................................ 16

2.3.6 GPS Method ........................................................................................................ 16

2.3.7 Mobile Vehicle Method ...................................................................................... 17

2.3.8 Study Method Comparison ................................................................................. 20

2.4 Highway Safety Manual Analysis.......................................................................... 20

2.5 Crash Modification Factor Clearinghouse ............................................................. 23

2.6 GIS and Remote-Sensing Procedures .................................................................... 25

2.7 General Guides for TCDs for Horizontal Curves .................................................. 28

2.8 TCDs Effects on Horizontal Curves ...................................................................... 29

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2.8.1 TCD Application and Safety Effects for Horizontal Curves .............................. 30

2.8.2 Modeling for Determining Hazardous Curve Category...................................... 33

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2.9 Spatial Relationships .............................................................................................. 34

2.10 Summary ................................................................................................................ 40

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3.0 Curve Crash Characteristics ................................................................................... 42

3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 42

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3.2 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 43

3.3 Collision Data Analysis ......................................................................................... 45

3.3.1 Road Characteristics ........................................................................................... 45

3.3.2 Collision Characteristics ..................................................................................... 47

3.4 Results .................................................................................................................... 60

3.5 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 63

4.0 Manual Field Investigation Procedure ................................................................... 64

5.0 Individual Curve Analysis GIS Process ................................................................. 65

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 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 65

5.1.1 Scope ................................................................................................................... 66

5.1.2 Objective ............................................................................................................. 66

5.2 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 67

5.2.1 Field Method ....................................................................................................... 69

5.2.2 Curve Calculator ................................................................................................. 71

5.2.3 Curvature Extension............................................................................................ 72

5.2.4 Curve Finder ....................................................................................................... 73

5.3 Analysis .................................................................................................................. 75

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5.3.1 GIS-Derived Curve Analysis .............................................................................. 76

5.3.2 Field Measured Curve Analysis .......................................................................... 78

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5.3.3 Safety Analysis ................................................................................................... 85

5.4 Results .................................................................................................................... 87

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5.5 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 88

6.0 Network Curve Analysis GIS Process ................................................................... 92

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6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 92

6.2 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 93

6.2.1 Curve Identification ............................................................................................ 94

6.2.2 Geometric Characterization ................................................................................ 95

6.2.3 Collision Data ..................................................................................................... 95

6.3 Analysis .................................................................................................................. 96

6.3.1 Curve Finder Tolerance Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................... 96

6.3.2 Route Analysis .................................................................................................... 98

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 6.3.3 Hazardous Curve Analysis ................................................................................ 104

6.3.4 Safety Analysis ................................................................................................. 105

6.4 Results .................................................................................................................. 108

6.5 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 109

7.0 Mobile Vehicle Comparison ................................................................................ 112

7.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 112

7.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 113

7.2.1 Chord Method ................................................................................................... 116

7.2.2 GIS Method ....................................................................................................... 117

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7.2.3 Vendor Data ...................................................................................................... 120

7.2.4 Survey Data ....................................................................................................... 120

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7.2.5 Design Data ....................................................................................................... 122

7.2.6 Comparison ....................................................................................................... 122

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7.3 Results .................................................................................................................. 124

7.4 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 132

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8.0 Highway Safety Manual Analysis........................................................................ 135

8.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 135

8.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 138

8.2.1 HSM predictive method calibration .................................................................. 138

8.2.2 Step 9: Select and apply SPF ............................................................................ 139

8.2.3 Step 10: Apply the appropriate CMFs to SPF to account for the difference in
base and site specific conditions ................................................................................... 139

8.2.4 Step 11: Apply a calibration factor to the result of Step 10 .............................. 140

8.2.5 Data Collection ................................................................................................. 141

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 8.3 Analysis ................................................................................................................ 143

8.3.1 Calibration Factor Analysis .............................................................................. 143

8.3.2 Sensitivity Analysis .......................................................................................... 146

8.3.3 Calibration Factor Validation ........................................................................... 151

8.4 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 152

9.0 Spatial Relationships ............................................................................................ 153

9.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 153

9.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 154

9.2.1 Horizontal Curve Data Collection .................................................................... 155

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9.2.2 HSM Safety Prediction ..................................................................................... 156

9.2.3 Spatial Relationship Analysis ........................................................................... 158

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9.3 Results .................................................................................................................. 162

9.3.1 Model Selection ................................................................................................ 163

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9.3.2 Model Validation .............................................................................................. 167

9.4 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 168

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10.0 Comprehenisve Process ....................................................................................... 171

10.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 171

10.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 173

10.2.1 Step 1: Site Identification.............................................................................. 175

10.2.2 Step 2: Office Data Acquisition .................................................................... 175

10.2.3 Step 3: Collision Data Analysis .................................................................... 178

10.2.4 Step 4: Curve Characteristics Analysis ......................................................... 180

10.2.5 Step 5: Curve & Collision Analysis Findings ............................................... 181

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 10.2.6 Step 6: Field Data Acquisition and Confirmation......................................... 181

10.2.7 Step 7: Develop Recommendations .............................................................. 182

10.3 Case Studies ......................................................................................................... 184

10.3.1 Case Study Site # 1 – Agency Safety Improvement Program Curve ........... 184

10.3.2 Case Study Site # 2 – Collision History and Geometric Deficiencies .......... 187

10.3.3 Case Study Site # 3 – Not A High Priority Site for Improvements .............. 189

11.0 Recommendations ................................................................................................ 192

11.1 Curve Crash Characteristics ................................................................................. 193

11.2 Highway Safety Manual Analysis........................................................................ 193

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11.3 Spatial Relationships ............................................................................................ 194

11.4 Individual Curve Analysis GIS Process ............................................................... 195

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11.5 Network Curve Analysis GIS Process ................................................................. 196

11.6 Mobile Vehicle Horizontal Curve Data Collection .............................................. 197

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11.7 Horizontal Curve Procedure................................................................................. 198

12.0 References ............................................................................................................ 200

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Appendix ............................................................................................................................... 217

Appendix A: Manual Field Investigation Procedure ............................................................ 218

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 LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Horizontal Curve Collision Geometric Roadway Characteristics ........................... 46

Table 2. Horizontal Curve Collision Urban vs Rural Characteristics ..................................... 46
Table 3. Horizontal Curve Collision Severity Characteristics ................................................ 48
Table 4. Rural Horizontal Curve Collision Frequency Characteristics .................................. 50
Table 5. Horizontal Curve Collision Type Characteristics (Most Harmful Event) ................ 52
Table 6. Horizontal Curve Collision Most Harmful Event Characteristics ............................ 54
Table 7. Horizontal Curve Collision Roadway Surface Characteristics ................................. 60
Table 8. Potential Countermeasures to Reduce the Frequency and/or Severity of Horizontal
Curve Collisions...................................................................................................................... 62

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Table 9. Radius in Meters (feet) Comparison of GIS Methods ............................................. 77
Table 10. Sensitivity Analysis for 304.8 Meter (1,000’) Radius and 152.4 Meter (500’)
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Length Curve .......................................................................................................................... 78
Table 11. Curve Radius: Field Measured vs GIS Calculated ................................................ 80
Table 12. Curve Radius Differences from Field Measured Values ........................................ 81
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Table 13. Correlation Coefficients and P-values for Radius Values ..................................... 82
Table 14. Curve Length: Field Measured vs GIS Calculated ................................................ 83
Table 15. Curve Length Differences from Field Measured Length Values .......................... 84
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Table 16. Correlation Coefficients and P-values for Length Values ...................................... 84
Table 17. Safety Ranking of Top 10 Most Hazardous Field Measured vs GIS Calculated
Curves ..................................................................................................................................... 86
Table 18. Spearman Correlation Coefficients for Safety Rankings ........................................ 87
Table 19. Radius Differences with Descriptive Parameters ................................................. 101
Table 20. Length Differences with Descriptive Parameters ................................................. 103
Table 21. Radius Differences with Descriptive Parameters ................................................. 105
Table 22. Length Differences with Descriptive Parameters ................................................. 105
Table 23. Collision Data (5 years – 2005 to 2009): Curve Related and All Crashes on NC42
and NC96 .............................................................................................................................. 107

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Table 24. Radius Inaccuracies from Locational Errors at Horizontal Curves ...................... 115
Table 25. Radius Comparison of All Techniques ................................................................. 126
Table 26. Length Comparison of All Techniques ................................................................. 129
Table 27. Comparison of Radius and Length Values for Vendor and Chord Method Data . 131
Table 28. Comparison of Range of Radius and Length Values ............................................ 132
Table 29. Field Data Collection Elements ........................................................................... 142
Table 30. HSM Calibration Factors Calculated .................................................................... 145
Table 31. Annual Calibration Factors (All Segments, Random Segments, Non-Random
Segments) .............................................................................................................................. 146
Table 32. Input Values for HSM (Minimum, Maximum, Average, and Median) ................ 147
Table 33. Output Values from HSM (Predicted Collisions Per Year) .................................. 148

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Table 34. Predicted Collisions (over 5 years) for Two-Lane Road Horizontal Curves ........ 150
Table 35. Variables of the Model ......................................................................................... 165
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Table 36. Model Predicted Collisions (collisions per year) by Adjacent Curve Distance ... 167
Table 37. Case Study Site # 1 Comprehensive Study Procedure Summary ......................... 187
Table 38. Case Study Site # 2 Comprehensive Study Procedure Summary ......................... 189
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Table 39. Case Study Site # 3 Comprehensive Study Procedure Summary ......................... 191
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 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Horizontal Curve Collision Frequency Distribution ............................................... 49

Figure 2. Horizontal Curve Collision Time of Day Characteristics ....................................... 57
Figure 3. Horizontal Curve Collision Day of Week Characteristics ...................................... 58
Figure 4. Horizontal Curve Collision Month of Year Characteristics .................................... 59
Figure 5. GIS Line Work – Horizontal Curve with 7 Points [ESRI 2009] ............................. 68
Figure 6. GIS Line Work – Horizontal Curve with 3 Points [ESRI 2009] ............................. 69
Figure 7. Horizontal Curve Layout [Findley and Foyle 2009] .............................................. 70
Figure 8. Curve Calculator User Input Screen ........................................................................ 71
Figure 9. Curvature Extension User Input Screen .................................................................. 73

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Figure 10. Curve Finder User Input Screen ............................................................................ 74
Figure 11. Tolerance Example ............................................................................................... 75
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Figure 12. Example of Manual Horizontal Curve Identification ............................................ 94
Figure 13. Percentage of Curves Reported and Matched by Curve Finder Tolerance – NC96
& NC42 ................................................................................................................................... 97
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Figure 14. Percentage of Curves Reported and Matched by Curve Finder Tolerance – I40 .. 98
Figure 15. Curve Finder Error Quotient Diagram ............................................................... 100
Figure 16. Radii Differences Between Curve Finder and Curvature Extension ................... 102
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Figure 17. Length Differences Between Curve Finder and Curvature Extension ................ 104
Figure 18. Curve Influence Area (0.1, 0.2, and 0.5 miles) .................................................. 108
Figure 19. Horizontal Curve Layout with PT Offset Error................................................... 116
Figure 20. Curve Radius (Macroscopic and Microscopic) Using Curvature Extension....... 118
Figure 21. Roadway Curvature Data (Chord, GIS, Vendor, and Survey) ............................ 123
Figure 22. Aerial Visualization of Roadway Curvature from Various Methods (Geofiny
2007) ..................................................................................................................................... 124
Figure 23. Radius Comparison of Vendor Data.................................................................... 127
Figure 24. Length Comparison of Vendor Data ................................................................... 130
Figure 25. Collision Interpolation Milepost Example .......................................................... 160

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Figure 26. Spatial Curve Example Layout ............................................................................ 161
Figure 27. Validation of Model with Difference in Collisions from Reported Collisions ... 168
Figure 28. Comprehensive Curve Safety Study Procedure .................................................. 174
Figure 29. Case Study Site #1 ............................................................................................... 186
Figure 30. Case Study Site #2 ............................................................................................... 188
Figure 31. Case Study Site #3 ............................................................................................... 190

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

Horizontal curves, providing the transition between straight roadway segments, are
particularly hazardous locations which deserve attention from researchers and transportation
agencies. The collision rate for horizontal curves is approximately three times greater than
straight (also known as tangent) section collision rates (Torbic 2004). Fatal collisions on
horizontal curves comprise approximately 25% of all fatal collisions. The majority (76%) of
fatal horizontal curve collisions occur from a single vehicle leaving the roadway and either
striking a fixed object or overturning. In a study of collisions in North Carolina, Hummer et
al (2011) found that 1.9% of two-lane road curve collisions are fatal, which was more than
three times the fatal rate of collisions on all roads statewide (0.6%). The prevalence of

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collisions involving vehicles leaving the roadway makes horizontal curves a key focus for
transportation agency improvements because these types of collisions have numerous
countermeasures, or types of improvements, for collision reduction.
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A complete understanding of horizontal curves is critical to enable an agency to
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systematically and efficiently improve the safety performance of its roads. A comprehensive
safety study procedure for horizontal curves on rural, two-lane roadways was developed
through this research as an improvement to existing safety procedures. Current agency
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practices for identifying hazardous locations focus on collision history, which could lead to
inefficiently selecting and funding sites for improvements. Many collisions occur at random
locations that are unlikely to be improved by engineering practices, such as those primarily
caused by driver inattention or intoxication (although other broader practices in education,
enforcement, or emergency response could reduce the occurrence or severity of collisions).

This proposed comprehensive safety study procedure is proactive by incorporating geometric

features and roadway characteristics that influence the safety of a curve that might not be
identified by methods solely based on collision history. This process is efficient because of
the ability to collect a significant amount of data from an office, saving agency resources and

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providing an opportunity to review rural sites that might not otherwise be considered for
improvements. This research will show that a comprehensive, proactive safety process for
rural, two-lane curves is feasible and furthermore, that it is possible to conduct a significant
amount of work before a field visit is necessary, if a field visit is even necessary to complete
the process.

For a complete understanding of horizontal curves and their potential for improvement, the
proposed curve study procedure consists of the following seven steps, as detailed in the
following sections:

1. Site identification

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2. Office data acquisition
3. Collision data analysis
4. Curve characteristics analysis
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5. Collision data and curve characteristics findings
6. Field data acquisition and confirmation
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7. Recommendations

1.1 Step 1: Site Identification

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Identifying a site (Step 1) for further study can come from a systematic process of examining
all horizontal curves or through targeted identification of specific curve locations. An
inventory, meaning a database of curve information, is the primary method of identifying
every curve in a roadway network; however, many agencies do not have curve inventories
because of the cost and time required to create and maintain an inventory. Other sources for
identifying curves include: collision reports, a citizen, a transportation agency employee, a
police officer, through routine maintenance activities or reconstruction projects, or through a
formal hazardous location identification process utilized by the agency.

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1.2 Step 2: Office Data Acquisition

Office techniques for data acquisition (Step 2) can involve collecting information by
examining plans, collision history, GIS data, lidar data, satellite photographs, online mapping
programs, video or photo logs, or asset inventories. Important elements to collect during this
step include curve geometric features, spatial relationships with other roadway elements, the
number, type, and location of signs, markings, and driveways, and other relevant factors.
New techniques and technologies allow horizontal curves to be studied, at least preliminary
investigations, remotely from an office. The use of office study techniques can greatly
increase the efficiency of a transportation agency by avoiding resource intensive data
collection visits to sites, thereby saving time, preserving equipment, and avoiding staff
exposure to traffic. Many states maintain GIS data of their roadway system, which can allow

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office study techniques to leverage this existing resource to provide horizontal curve data
while avoiding the pitfalls of field data collection.
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1.3 Step 3: Collision Data Analysis

Police reports supply the necessary information to conduct a collision analysis (Step 3) of the
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curve. The objective of the collision data analysis is to determine if there is an
overrepresentation of collisions at the curve. The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is an
invaluable tool with which to conduct a collision data analysis on a curve (AASHTO 2010).
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The HSM presents a model to predict the safety of a two-lane horizontal curve based on its
characteristics, including: traffic volume, lane width, shoulder width, length, radius,
superelevation, grade, driveway density, roadside hazard rating, spiral transition, passing
lanes, roadway lighting, centerline rumble strips, two-way left-turn lanes, and automated
speed enforcement. An overrepresentation of collisions at a curve signifies a potential curve
of interest for improvements, particularly if the collisions appear to be correctable with
available countermeasures.

Multiple methods could be used to determine overrepresentation, but three types of analyses
will apply in most cases: 1) when no collision data is available or when the available

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collision data is thought to be unreliable, agencies should analyze the roadway section with
the HSM to generate a collision prediction and compare the result to other sites or to a
standard collision frequency (that could vary by geographic location, site type, etc.), 2) when
reliable reported collision data are available, a comparison can be made to the number of
collisions predicted by the HSM model for the specific location, and 3) when reliable
reported collision data are available, it is possible to employ a Bayesian process which
combines the predictive capabilities of the HSM with observed collisions, where the resulting
value can then be compared to a standardized value for similar locations. A safety analysis
which found an over-representation of collisions on a curve could signify a potential
deficiency (geometric, signage, pavement condition, truck restrictions, drainage, etc.) that
could be addressed by an appropriate countermeasure.

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1.4 Step 4: Curve Characteristics Analysis

The analysis of a horizontal curve (Step 4) should include an examination of both its
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characteristics and its geometric features. An analysis and evaluation of a horizontal curve’s
characteristics could focus on identifying potential deficiencies through an examination of
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HSM crash modification factors (CMFs) for lane width, shoulder width and type, curve
length, curve radius, spiral transition presence, superelevation, grade, and driveway density
(AASHTO 2010). CMFs are multiplicative factors that estimate the change in collisions
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after a countermeasure is implemented under specific conditions. Other relevant CMFs that
are not currently incorporated into the HSM can be found through the CMF Clearinghouse
(www.cmfclearinghouse.org) established by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
as a centralized location for CMFs. A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets
provides the geometric highway design guidance most US agencies use and provides a
framework for conducting an analysis of a horizontal curve by comparing to minimum levels
for key curve design features (AASHTO 2004). A deviation of the geometric characteristics
of the curve from the minimum guidance from AASHTO would signify a geometric
deficiency and elements of interest for improvements.

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1.5 Step 5: Collision Data and Curve Characteristics Findings

Step 5 is intended to identify if the curve is of interest for improvement, based on the results
of Steps 3 and 4. If Steps 3 and 4 show that there are no serious physical deficiencies and no
overrepresentation of reported collisions, the site should not be considered a high priority for
safety improvements. If deficiencies were found, collisions were overrepresented, or if both
collision overrepresentation and physical deficiencies are identified, the process should be
continued to explore the possibility of improvement through countermeasures.

1.6 Step 6: Field Data Acquisition and Confirmation

A field investigation (Step 6) can be used to acquire additional data or confirm assumptions
made during prior steps. Field investigations include the direct measurement of attributes at

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the curve in question and inventorying of relevant roadway features not typically available
with office methods during Step 2, such as the grade, superelevation, shoulder conditions
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(high or low points), and other condition related aspects that change over time. If the
elements of concern in the HSM analysis correspond to the types of collisions examined in
the collision data analysis, this should provide analysts with a high level of confidence that
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the source of the safety concern has been identified, and a site visit might not be necessary
(users could progress directly to Step 7). An example of the value and importance of a field
visit is a crash analysis which shows crashes in wet pavement conditions, followed by a site
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visit which reveals high shoulders which could cause hydroplaning. If significant deviations
exist between the field observations and the office data collection methods or assumed values
used in Steps 2-4, the process should be restarted at the curve criteria decision in Step 2.

1.7 Step 7: Recommendations

If a curve is determined to have deficiencies, appropriate countermeasures should be

identified (Step 7). The analysis and evaluation of the horizontal curve should lead to the
selection of appropriate countermeasures, which could include operational, pavement
surface, geometric, or signage improvements. Research by Hummer et al (2010) matched
common horizontal curve collisions with countermeasures. This combination of curve