Slide 1 Good afternoon, Professor Dr.

Jay Qi, Ann, Trisha, and Isabel.

Welcome to our ALY6080
Group 1 final presentation. I
am Team Lead Syed Faizan,
and this group consists of
Christiana, Emelia, Vraj,
Shicheng, Pravalika, and we
worked under the supervision
of Dr. Jay Qi.

Slide 2

Slide 3
Slide 4
"The bar chart here illustrates
the population distribution
across Canadian provinces,
with Ontario leading
significantly, followed by
Quebec and British Columbia.
Meanwhile, the Northwest
Territories, Yukon, and Nunavut
show notably smaller
populations. For our sponsor,
United Way Greater Toronto,
this data emphasizes Ontario's
role as a central hub for
migration and urban
development. This reinforces
the need to focus resources in
Ontario, particularly in the
GTA, to address the challenges
of poverty and homelessness.
Prioritizing affordable housing
projects and social programs in
high-density areas like Toronto
can have the most impact,
given the concentration of the
population here."

Slide 5 "This chart shows the steady

population growth of the
Toronto CMA, increasing from
2.62 million in 2011 to 2.79
million in 2021. This growth
highlights the region's
continued appeal for migration
and urban development. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this data underscores the
pressing need to scale up
housing, infrastructure, and
social services to
accommodate increasing
demands. By addressing these
challenges proactively, UWGT
can better support vulnerable
populations and work towards
reducing poverty and
 homelessness, particularly in
areas experiencing the highest
growth."
Slide 6 "This slide highlights migration
and mobility patterns in the
region. The majority of people,
classified as non-movers,
remain within their regions,
particularly in Ontario.
However, Toronto and the
Greater Toronto and Hamilton
Area (GTHA) attract significant
external migration due to
urban opportunities. For United
Way Greater Toronto, this
reinforces the need to
strengthen settlement
programs, improve affordable
housing availability, and
provide better access to jobs
for newcomers. Additionally,
intra-provincial migration
emphasizes the importance of
improving regional
transportation and
connectivity to foster
economic activity and support
families moving within
Ontario."
Slide 7 "This slide reveals that 90.9%
of immigrants in Toronto are
aged 25 and above, with only
9.1% under 25. This aging
immigrant population presents
challenges such as potential
labor shortages, increased
pressure on healthcare, and a
greater reliance on social
services. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this
demographic trend highlights
the need to focus on workforce
development programs to
attract and retain younger
immigrants. Additionally,
enhancing healthcare and
 retirement support systems is
critical to meet the needs of
aging immigrant communities
and reduce vulnerability."

Slide 8 "This slide compares the age

distribution of the immigrant
population in 2016 and 2021.
A clear trend emerges:
immigrants aged over 25
continue to dominate, making
up 91% of Toronto's immigrant
population in 2021, compared
to 90% in 2016. Meanwhile,
the under-25 immigrant
population has declined. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this highlights the urgent need
to address the aging
demographic by implementing
programs aimed at attracting
younger immigrants.
Additionally, preparing
infrastructure to support an
older population, including
healthcare and social services,
is critical for long-term
sustainability."
Slide 9 "Toronto and the Greater
Toronto and Hamilton Area
(GTHA) have a higher
proportion of first-generation
immigrants, reflecting recent
immigration trends in urban
centers. In contrast, Canada
overall has a larger proportion
of third-generation or more
immigrants, highlighting long-
term immigration and
established communities. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this emphasizes the need to
develop targeted policies and
programs that support first-
generation immigrants in
Toronto and the GTHA while
 fostering inclusion and
engagement in long-
established communities."

Slide 10 "The population distribution in

the Toronto GTA highlights its
diverse demographics, with
South Asian (21.85%) and
Chinese (15.13%) communities
being the largest racialized
groups. Filipino (11.76%) and
Black (10.08%) communities
also have significant
representation. For United Way
Greater Toronto, these insights
stress the importance of
tailoring policies and programs
to address the unique needs of
these communities. Culturally
sensitive initiatives, inclusive
community programs, and
targeted outreach can
strengthen social cohesion and
ensure equitable access to
resources."

Slide 11 It is important to note that this

projection to 2041 was carried
out by the government of
Canada and is available from
stats Canada. In the
Projections that we carried out
we limited our years to 2025
and 2030 based on
recommendations from Prof.
Dr. Jay Qi on our mid-term
presentation. "The projected
racialized population in the
GTA for 2041 shows significant
growth in South Asian,
Chinese, and Filipino
communities, further shaping
the region's multicultural
identity. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this highlights
the critical need to strengthen
 inclusive policies and develop
programs that address the
unique socio-economic
challenges faced by these
growing communities.
Ensuring equitable access to
housing, employment
opportunities, and culturally
sensitive services will be
essential to support this
evolving demographic
landscape."

Slide 12 "The projected racialized

population for 2041 highlights
significant growth in cities
such as Toronto, Vancouver,
and Calgary, reflecting the
increasing diversity across
Canada. However, regional
variations in these projections
emphasize differing
demographic trends. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this underscores the
importance of adapting
services and policies to meet
the unique needs of diverse
racialized communities in
Toronto. By addressing
challenges such as equitable
access to housing,
employment, and social
programs, UWGT can ensure
inclusivity and foster stronger
community support systems."

Slide 13 This information might be a bit

too granular looking at
neighborhoods but we thought
to retain it as it might lead to
some actionable insights in
terms of resource allocations.
"West Humber-Clairville and
Mount Olive-Silverstone-
Jamestown are highlighted as
 the most youthful
neighborhoods in Toronto, with
the highest proportions of
children aged 0-14 and youth
aged 15-24. These areas
represent a significant portion
of Toronto's young population,
making them critical for
targeted initiatives. For United
Way Greater Toronto, investing
in after-school programs,
sports facilities, and
community centers in these
neighborhoods will enhance
support for youth, foster
engagement, and contribute to
breaking cycles of poverty and
homelessness among younger
generations."
Slide 14 "Banbury-Don Mills stands out
with the highest proportion of
seniors at 30.4%, followed
closely by Agincourt North and
Annex, each with
approximately 28.7% senior
populations. These
neighborhoods highlight the
growing need for senior-
focused policies and services.
For United Way Greater
Toronto, this data underscores
the importance of targeted
infrastructure, enhanced
healthcare services, and social
support tailored specifically to
aging demographics, ensuring
that senior residents can
maintain their quality of life
and independence."
Slide 15 "The education levels in
Toronto reveal that high school
attainment remains the most
common, while graduate
degrees are less prevalent but
consistent. A significant
proportion of the population
lacks formal certificates,
indicating gaps in education
access or completion. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this data emphasizes the need
to strengthen adult education
programs, improve access to
post-secondary education, and
promote skill-development
initiatives, particularly in
underserved communities.
Addressing these gaps can
empower individuals, reduce
poverty, and enhance
employability."

Slide 16 "This slide summarizes key

demographic insights for the
Toronto GTA. The region has
experienced steady population
growth, increasing from 2.62
million in 2011 to 2.79 million
in 2021. Migration trends
emphasize Toronto's role as a
hub for urban migration,
dominated by diverse
immigrant communities. By
2041, racialized groups such
as South Asian and Chinese
populations are projected to
grow significantly, shaping the
city’s multicultural identity. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this highlights actionable
priorities: expanding
infrastructure, housing, and
social programs while
supporting policies to reduce
inequality and foster inclusivity
 in a rapidly changing
demographic landscape."

Slide 17 "This slide provides an

overview of financial stability
in the Greater Toronto Area,
focusing on key indicators such
as income inequality, wage
gaps, low-income prevalence,
unemployment rates, and
social assistance effectiveness.
By analyzing these trends,
United Way Greater Toronto
can identify vulnerable
populations and prioritize
interventions. The goal is to
enhance financial stability by
addressing wage disparities,
expanding employment
opportunities, and improving
access to social programs
across the region to support
those most in need."

Slide 18 "The Gini Index measures

income inequality, with a value
of 0 representing perfect
equality and 1 representing
complete inequality. In the
GTA, the Gini Index for
household market income is
0.422, indicating moderate
inequality. However, after
adjusting for taxes and
transfers, the Gini Index drops
to 0.273, reflecting a more
equitable distribution. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this data highlights the
importance of supporting tax
and transfer policies that
reduce inequality, while also
addressing the underlying
wage disparities in market
incomes to ensure long-term
financial stability for all
 residents."

Slide 19 "This slide highlights

significant regional variations
in income inequality, as
measured by the Gini
coefficient. The comparisons
show the City of Toronto
exhibiting higher levels of
income inequality compared to
other regions such as Halton
and Durham. These disparities
underscore the importance of
targeted interventions in areas
with greater inequality, such
as enhancing access to
affordable housing and job
training programs. For United
Way Greater Toronto, these
insights can guide the
development of localized
strategies to address income
gaps and foster economic
inclusion across the region."

Slide 20 "This slide presents observed

and predicted trends in the
Gini Index for the City of
Toronto, York Region, and Peel
Region. The predictions
indicate a gradual increase in
income inequality through
2050, with the City of Toronto
projected to have the highest
levels of inequality compared
to York and Peel. For United
Way Greater Toronto, this trend
underscores the need to
implement long-term
strategies focused on reducing
income disparities, such as
improving access to education,
job opportunities, and
affordable housing. Targeted
interventions in areas with
higher inequality will be critical
 to fostering economic equity."

Slide 21 "This slide showcases a

decision tree model that
categorizes regions based on
their Gini Index values,
highlighting differences in
income inequality across the
GTA. The City of Toronto is
classified as having the
highest inequality, while
Durham and York Regions are
grouped together with lower
Gini values. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this analysis
provides actionable insights to
prioritize resources and
programs in areas like Toronto,
where inequality is more
pronounced, while maintaining
efforts to sustain equitable
conditions in regions like York
and Durham."

Slide 22 "This slide compares the

minimum wage to the living
wage in the GTA from 2021 to
2022. The living wage, which
reflects the hourly income
needed to meet basic
expenses, is significantly
higher than the minimum
wage across all regions. For
instance, Peel has the largest
gap, with a minimum wage of
$14.35 compared to a living
wage of $22.08 per hour. This
disparity highlights the
economic challenges faced by
low-income workers. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
these insights reinforce the
need to advocate for wage
policies and expand programs
that provide financial support
 and resources to bridge this
gap and alleviate poverty."

Slide 23 "Projections for living wages in

the GTA show a steady
increase through 2030 and
2040. Linear regression and
random forest models predict
significant rises, with regions
like York and Toronto expected
to see the highest living wage
requirements. These trends
indicate increasing economic
pressures on low-income
families. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this reinforces
the need to advocate for
higher wages and support
programs that offset living
costs, such as affordable
housing, childcare subsidies,
and employment
opportunities, ensuring
financial stability for
vulnerable communities."

Slide 24 "The prevalence of low

income, based on the LICO-AT
measure, is highest among
children and youth aged 0-17,
reaching 9.8% in Peel. This
highlights the disproportionate
impact of poverty on families
with young dependents. Adults
aged 18-64 and seniors aged
65+ show lower rates, likely
due to more effective
government support programs.
For United Way Greater
Toronto, these findings stress
the need to expand family-
oriented initiatives, such as
childcare subsidies and
nutritional assistance, to
alleviate poverty among
children. Additionally,
 continuing to support existing
programs for adults and
seniors will ensure sustained
progress in reducing income
inequality."

Slide 25 "The Low-Income Measure

After Tax (LIM-AT) reveals
higher poverty rates among
children aged 0-5, reaching
nearly 17% in Toronto,
compared to older age groups.
These figures underscore the
challenges faced by young
families in accessing essential
resources. While the rates are
lower for adults aged 18-64
and seniors aged 65+, these
groups still experience
significant financial pressures.
For United Way Greater
Toronto, this data highlights
the need for targeted early
childhood programs, affordable
housing initiatives, and
employment opportunities to
mitigate poverty across all
demographics, with a
particular focus on young
families."

Slide 26 "The total income distribution

in the GTA reveals that the
largest proportion of
households, about 13-17%,
earn between $50,000 and
$59,999. Households with
incomes under $10,000,
including losses, are less
common but still notable. York
region stands out with a higher
proportion of households
earning $100,000 and above
(17%) compared to Peel and
Toronto, reflecting greater
income disparity. For United
 Way Greater Toronto, this data
highlights the need to focus on
reducing income inequality by
expanding access to high-
paying job opportunities,
providing financial education,
and enhancing support for low-
income households."

Slide 27 "After-tax income levels in the

GTA show a concentration of
households in the middle-
income brackets, with the
largest proportion, around
18%, earning $50,000 to
$59,999. However, a
significant number of
households, about 12-15%,
report incomes under $10,000,
highlighting the presence of
low-income populations. York
region has the highest
proportion of households
earning $100,000 and above
(19%) compared to Toronto
and Peel, emphasizing regional
income disparities. For United
Way Greater Toronto, this data
underscores the importance of
supporting low-income
households through financial
assistance programs and
creating opportunities to
bridge regional economic
inequalities."

Slide 28 "Employment income data in

the GTA shows a concentration
of individuals earning $30,000
to $39,999, accounting for 11-
15% across the three regions.
However, a significant
proportion, 14-16%, earn
under $5,000, including losses,
indicating the prevalence of
low-wage jobs. York region
 stands out with a higher
proportion of individuals
earning $100,000 and above
compared to Toronto and Peel,
reflecting unequal access to
high-paying employment. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this highlights the need to
advocate for equitable wage
policies, promote skill
development, and create
pathways to better-paying jobs
to support financial stability
and reduce income inequality."

Slide 29 "Overall income levels in the

GTA reflect significant
disparities. While middle-
income households dominate,
a substantial proportion of
households earn less than
$10,000 annually, highlighting
the challenges faced by low-
income families. York region
shows a higher concentration
of high-income households
compared to Peel and Toronto,
emphasizing regional
inequities. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this data
underlines the importance of
addressing these disparities
through programs that support
low-income families, enhance
job opportunities, and promote
equitable economic growth
across the region."

Slide 30 "Predictions for low-income

levels without social mobility
interventions reveal an
alarming upward trend in
regions like Peel and Toronto,
with Peel projected to reach
over 60% by 2050. This
highlights growing economic
 inequality without significant
intervention. For United Way
Greater Toronto, these findings
emphasize the need to
prioritize programs that
promote upward mobility, such
as education, skill
development, and job
placement initiatives, to
mitigate the risks of long-term
poverty and ensure equitable
opportunities for all residents
in the region."

Slide 31 "Considering social mobility,

the projections show a slower
growth in low-income levels
across most regions, with Peel
and Toronto still exhibiting the
highest rates by 2050. This
demonstrates the positive
impact of social mobility
initiatives in stabilizing income
disparities. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this data
reinforces the need to invest in
programs that enhance social
mobility, such as access to
education, skill-building, and
employment opportunities,
while continuing to focus on
reducing the persistent income
gaps in Peel and Toronto
compared to other regions."

Slide 32 "The City of Toronto and York

Region rely the least on
government transfers, with
these making up around 15.5%
of household budgets. In
contrast, Peel, Hamilton, and
Durham show higher reliance,
with transfers accounting for
over 18% of household
budgets. This indicates that
lower-income regions within
 the GTA tend to depend more
on government support. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
these insights highlight the
need to complement
government efforts with
targeted community programs
to reduce financial
dependency and promote self-
sufficiency among vulnerable
populations."

Slide 33 "The unemployment rate in

the GTA is highest in Toronto at
13.9%, followed by Peel at
13.5% and York at 12.7%.
Toronto's unemployment rate
is 34.66% higher than York's,
indicating significant
disparities in job opportunities
across the region. For United
Way Greater Toronto, this
highlights the importance of
expanding job training
programs, supporting small
businesses, and improving
access to employment
resources, particularly in
Toronto and Peel, to alleviate
economic challenges and
promote financial stability."

Slide 34 "Predictions indicate a gradual

decline in unemployment rates
in Peel Region and Toronto
CMA from 2025 to 2050, with
Toronto CMA consistently
showing lower rates. The
model's accuracy, measured
by RMSE, is best for Toronto
CMA at 0.5573, suggesting
reliable predictions for this
region compared to areas like
Brampton, which exhibit
higher RMSE values. For United
Way Greater Toronto, these
 insights highlight the need to
focus on job creation and
workforce development in Peel
and other regions with higher
unemployment risks, ensuring
economic recovery and
stability across the GTA."

Slide 35 "Short-term unemployment

forecasts for York Region,
Toronto CMA, and Ontario show
a steady decline through 2025,
indicating positive economic
recovery trends. York Region's
unemployment rate follows a
similar downward trajectory as
Toronto CMA and Ontario,
demonstrating regional
economic resilience. For United
Way Greater Toronto, this
highlights an opportunity to
build on these trends by
investing in workforce
development programs and
ensuring equitable access to
employment resources across
the GTA, particularly in areas
where recovery may be
slower."

Slide 36 "The data illustrates the labor

force status of individuals aged
15-29 in 2020-2021. The
proportion of young people not
in education and not employed
(NEET) is highest in Toronto at
16.42%, followed by York at
13.2% and Peel at 12.61%.
This indicates a significant
challenge for youth
engagement in education or
employment. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this highlights
the need to prioritize initiatives
such as vocational training,
mentorship programs, and
 targeted employment
opportunities to reduce the
NEET rate and enhance future
economic participation among
youth in the GTA."

Slide 37 "The data shows that among

working poor Canadians in
2021, the largest group had
only a high school education,
with 13% for men and 8% for
women. Those with less than
high school education made up
10% of men and 7% of women.
Interestingly, 5% of both men
and women in this group held
university degrees,
highlighting that higher
education does not always
prevent poverty. For United
Way Greater Toronto, this
emphasizes the importance of
not only improving access to
education but also ensuring
job opportunities and wage
equity for individuals across all
educational backgrounds."

Slide 38 "To summarize the financial

stability in the GTA, income
inequality remains moderate
but is projected to rise, with
Toronto expected to
experience the highest
inequality by 2050. Minimum
wages fall short of living
wages, leaving many workers
struggling to meet basic
needs. Without social mobility
interventions, projections show
a significant increase in low-
income households. For United
Way Greater Toronto, this calls
for targeted programs to
reduce income disparities,
such as wage advocacy,
 employment initiatives, and
support for families facing
economic challenges."

Slide 39 "This section provides an

overview of housing trends,
affordability challenges, and
homelessness in the Greater
Toronto Area. For United Way
Greater Toronto, understanding
these dynamics is critical to
addressing the housing crisis
and ensuring that vulnerable
populations have access to
safe and affordable living
options. The insights
presented will help inform
strategies to expand affordable
housing stock, prevent
homelessness, and support
sustainable urban
development."

Slide 40 "This slide highlights the

population living in core
housing need in the Toronto
CMA. Low-income households
represent the largest group
experiencing core housing
issues, reflecting the economic
pressures they face.
Meanwhile, middle- and
higher-income groups have
minimal housing challenges.
For United Way Greater
Toronto, this data underscores
the urgent need to expand
affordable housing options and
implement targeted support
programs for low- and very
low-income households to
address these disparities and
reduce housing insecurity."
Slide 41 "This slide shows the
distribution of housing types in
the Toronto CMA, focusing on
subsidized and affordable
housing units. Subsidized
housing units have seen
limited growth, while
affordable housing units are
gradually increasing but
remain insufficient to meet
demand. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this highlights
the critical need to accelerate
affordable housing programs
and expand subsidized
housing initiatives. Addressing
these gaps will be vital to
reducing homelessness and
ensuring secure housing
options for vulnerable
populations across the region."

Slide 42 "This slide highlights the

trends in households seeking
subsidized housing over time.
Despite increasing demand,
the availability of subsidized
housing has not kept pace,
leading to prolonged wait
times and unmet needs. For
United Way Greater Toronto,
this emphasizes the urgency of
advocating for expanded
subsidized housing programs,
streamlining application
processes, and collaborating
with policymakers to address
the growing demand. These
efforts are critical for reducing
housing insecurity and
supporting low-income families
across the region."
Slide 43 "This slide presents eviction
trends in Toronto from 2010 to
2018, showing a peak in
eviction applications in 2015,
followed by a gradual decline
after 2017. The peak may
correlate with economic
challenges or increased
housing costs during that
period. For United Way Greater
Toronto, this data underscores
the need for proactive
measures such as rental
assistance programs and
tenant protections to prevent
evictions. Understanding these
trends is vital for developing
strategies to reduce housing
instability and homelessness in
the region."

Slide 44 "This slide highlights the key

drivers of evictions in Toronto.
The leading cause is non-
payment of rent, followed by
issues related to tenant
behavior and lease violations.
For United Way Greater
Toronto, this emphasizes the
need for targeted
interventions, such as financial
assistance programs for
struggling renters and tenant
education initiatives to address
lease compliance. Addressing
these drivers can help prevent
evictions, reduce housing
instability, and alleviate the
strain on emergency housing
systems."
Slide 45 "This slide illustrates the
impact of evictions on
homelessness. A significant
portion of individuals who are
evicted transition into unstable
housing situations, including
shelters, temporary
accommodations, or living with
friends and family. For United
Way Greater Toronto, this data
underscores the urgent need
for eviction prevention
programs and affordable
housing initiatives. Addressing
the root causes of evictions,
such as financial instability and
rental arrears, can reduce the
risk of homelessness and
alleviate pressure on
emergency housing systems."

Slide 46 "This slide highlights

disparities in homelessness
rates across different age
groups and social identities.
Young adults and seniors are
disproportionately affected,
with young adults often
transitioning into
homelessness due to economic
instability, while seniors face
challenges linked to fixed
incomes and housing
affordability. Additionally,
marginalized social groups,
such as LGBTQ+ individuals,
experience elevated rates of
homelessness due to systemic
discrimination and lack of
support. For United Way
Greater Toronto, this data
emphasizes the importance of
targeted programs that
address these specific
vulnerabilities, such as youth-
focused housing initiatives,
 senior housing subsidies, and
inclusive support services to
reduce homelessness rates
effectively."

Slide 47 "This slide presents data on

centralized waitlist
applications and housing
placements from 2019 to
2023. Applications for
affordable housing have
steadily increased, peaking at
over 85,000 in 2023, reflecting
growing demand. However,
the number of households
successfully housed has
remained stagnant or declined,
highlighting a significant gap
between demand and supply.
For United Way Greater
Toronto, this reinforces the
need to advocate for increased
affordable housing
development and to
collaborate with stakeholders
to reduce wait times and meet
the housing needs of
vulnerable populations
effectively."

Slide 48 "This slide shows the observed

and predicted housing starts in
the Toronto CMA, indicating a
steady increase in construction
activity, projected to reach
approximately 69,623 units by
2050. While this growth is
encouraging, it is essential to
ensure that a significant
portion of these housing starts
is allocated to affordable and
subsidized units to meet the
needs of low-income families.
For United Way Greater
Toronto, this data highlights
the importance of
 collaborating with
policymakers and developers
to prioritize inclusive housing
strategies that address both
current demands and future
growth."

Slide 49 "In summary, core housing

needs disproportionately affect
low-income groups,
highlighting ongoing
inequalities. Housing trends
predict steady growth in
construction, but there
remains an unmet demand for
affordable housing. Eviction
and homelessness data
emphasize the need for
proactive interventions to
minimize housing instability.
For United Way Greater
Toronto, the recommendation
is to focus on expanding
affordable housing, enhancing
eviction prevention programs,
and advocating for policies to
support low-income and
vulnerable populations across
the GTA."

Slide 50 The community service sector

plays a critical role in supporting
low-income and marginalized
populations by providing essential
services such as housing
assistance, healthcare, and social
support. This project will analyze
community sector support to
develop a predictive model that
identifies and addresses housing
instability and financial hardship in
the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
Slide 51