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 Individual & Group
Chapter 7
Decision Making
How Managers Make Things Happen

CHAPTER CONTENTS

Major Questions the Student Should Be Able to Answer 2

Mapping the Class: Chapter Outline 3
Overview of the Chapter 4
Classroom Outline 5
Challenge: Major Questions 39
Management in Action 41
Legal/Ethical Challenge 44
Group Exercises 46
Video Case 55
Manager’s Hot Seat 56
MAJOR QUESTIONS THE STUDENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO ANSWER

7.1 Two Kinds of Decision Making: Rational and Nonrational

MAJOR QUESTION: How do people know when they’re being logical or
illogical?

7.2 Making Ethical Decisions

MAJOR QUESTION: What guidelines can I follow to be sure that decisions I
make are not just lawful but ethical?

7.3 Evidence-Based Decision Making and Analytics

MAJOR QUESTION: How can I improve my decision making using evidence-
based management and business analytics?

7.4 Four General Decision-Making Styles

MAJOR QUESTION: How do I decide to decide?

7.5 How to Overcome Barriers to Decision Making

MAJOR QUESTION: Trying to be rational isn’t always easy. What are the
barriers?

7.6 Group Decision Making: How to Work with Others

MAJOR QUESTION: How do I work with others to make things happen?
MAPPING THE CLASS: CHAPTER OUTLINE

7.1 Two Kinds of Decision Making: Rational and Nonrational

• Decision Making in the Real World
• Rational Decision Making: Managers Should Make Logical & Optimal
Decisions
• Stage 1: Identify the Problem or Opportunity—Determining the Actual
versus the Desirable
• Stage 2: Think Up Alternative Solutions—Both the Obvious & the Creative
• Stage 3: Evaluate Alternatives & Select a Solution—Ethics, Feasibility, &
Effectiveness
• Stage 4: Implement & Evaluate the Solution Chosen
• What’s Wrong with the Rational Model?
• Nonrational Decision Making: Managers Find It Difficult to Make Optimal
Decisions

7.2 Making Ethical Decisions

• The Dismal Record of Business Ethics
• Road Map to Ethical Decision Making: A Decision Tree

7.3 Evidence-Based Decision Making and Analytics

• Evidence-Based Decision Making
• In Praise of Analytics
• The Uses of “Big Data”

7.4 Four General Decision-Making Styles

• Value Orientation & Tolerance for Ambiguity
• 1. The Directive Style: Action-Oriented Decision Makers Who Focus on
Facts
• 2. The Analytical Style: Careful Decision Makers Who Like Lots of
Information & Alternative Choices
• 3. The Conceptual Style: Decision Makers Who Rely on Intuition & Have
a Long-Term Perspective
• 4. The Behavioral Style: The Most People-Oriented Decision Makers
• Which Style Do You Have?

7.5 How to Overcome Barriers to Decision Making

• Decision Making & Expectations about Happiness
• How Do Individuals Respond to a Decision Situation? Ineffective &
Effective Responses
• Nine Common Decision-Making Biases: Rules of Thumb, or “Heuristics”

7.6 Group Decision Making: How to Work with Others

• Advantages & Disadvantages of Group Decision Making
• What Managers Need to Know about Groups & Decision Making
• Group Problem-Solving Techniques: Reaching for Consensus
• More Group Problem-Solving Techniques
OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER

7.1 Two Kinds of Decision Making: Rational and Nonrational

Decision making, the process of identifying and choosing alternative
courses of action, may be rational, but often it is nonrational. Four steps
in making a rational decision are (1) identify the problem or opportunity,
(2) think up alternative solutions, (3) evaluate alternatives and select a
solution, and (4) implement and evaluate the solution chosen. Two
examples of nonrational models of decision making are (1) satisficing
and (2) intuition.

7.2 Making Ethical Decisions

Businesses have a dismal record of ethics. Many companies now have
an ethics officer, someone trained about matters of ethics in the
workplace. A graph known as a decision tree can help one make ethical
decisions. In addition, one should be aware of “the magnificent seven”
general moral principles for managers.

7.3 Evidence-Based Decision Making and Analytics

Evidence-based decision making brings rationality to the decision-
making process. This section describes seven principles for implementing
evidence-based management. Analytics has three key attributes: 1) use
of modeling, 2) having multiple applications, not just one; and 3) support
from the top.

7.4 Four General Decision-Making Styles

Decision-making styles reflect how one perceives and responds to
information. They can be directive, analytical, conceptual, or
behavioral.

7.5 How to Overcome Barriers to Decision Making

Responses to a decision situation may take the form of four ineffective
reactions: relaxed avoidance, relaxed change, defensive avoidance, or
panic; or three effective reactions: importance, credibility, or urgency.
Managers should also be aware of nine common decision-making biases.

7.6 Group Decision Making: How to Work with Others

Group decision making has five potential advantages and four potential
disadvantages. There are a number of characteristics of groups that a
manager should be aware of as group problem-solving techniques.
CLASSROOM OUTLINE

The Manager’s Toolbox: How Exceptional Managers Check to See If Their

Decisions Might Be Biased
An important part of a manager’s job is making decisions, but there are a variety of
biases that can cause you to make the wrong decision. You can fall victim to the
overconfidence bias when you are dealing with less familiar subjects. The prior-
hypothesis bias may cause you to make a decision based on your strong prior beliefs,
even when those beliefs are wrong. To overcome the ignoring-randomness bias, you
must be willing to attribute trends to random events. It is important to use a broad,
representative sample to avoid sampling biases. To avoid the hindsight bias, it is
important to remember than hindsight does not equal foresight.
Possible Topics for Discussion:
• Facing the hard facts about what works and what doesn’t, how able do you think
you are to make the tough decisions that effective managers have to make? Can
you describe an instance in which you were badly wrong about something or
someone?
• Do you believe these biases are more likely to occur with individual decision
making or group decision making? Explain your position.
• Identify your own strongly held beliefs which may have the ability to impact your
decision-making process. How can you overcome the tendency to fall victim to
the prior hypothesis bias for those beliefs?
• How could you determine if an event is just a random event or the sign of a
genuine trend?

7.1 Two Kinds of Decision Making:

Rational & Nonrational (pp. 190-198)
How do people know when they’re being logical or illogical?

Section 7.1 discusses four steps in the rational decision making process: (1) identify the
problem or opportunity, (2) think up alternative solutions, (3) evaluate alternatives and
select a solution, and (4) implement and evaluate the solution chosen. There is also a
discussion on the two nonrational models of decision making: (1) satisficing and (2)
intuition.
One way that you could begin your coverage of these topics is to have the students
read the Harvard Business Review article “SC Johnson’s CEO on Doing the Right
Thing, Even When It Hurts Business.” In this article, Fisk Johnson, SC Johnson CEO,
describes the firm’s decision to reformulate Saran Wrap over environmental concerns,
knowing that the reformulation was likely to negatively impact the product’s sales.
Article Citation:
Johnson, F. (2015). SC Johnson’s CEO on doing the right thing, even when it hurts
business. Harvard Business Review, 93(4), 33-36.
Product #: R1504A-PDF-ENG
Possible Topics for Discussion:
• Discuss why it can be so hard to be purely rational in the decision-making
process.
• Describe a time you used intuition to make a decision. Describe the advantages
and disadvantages of having used intuition to make this decision.
• Using the Harvard Business Review article “SC Johnson’s CEO on Doing the
Right Thing, Even When It Hurts Business” as your foundation, evaluate the
extent to which SC Johnson’s decision to reformulate Saran Wrap is an example
of rational decision making or nonrational decision making.
Major Idea Outline:
A. Decision Making Defined
1. A decision is a choice made from among available alternatives.
2. Decision making is the process of identifying and choosing alternative
courses of action.

Interactive Classroom Material:

EXAMPLE: How Can Being the Best Affect Your Decision Making? (p. 190)
Kodak was one of the biggest companies of all time, but had to make some tough
decisions on innovation. Afraid to cannibalize its existing business—selling film—
Kodak continued to push forward with its present business model rather than look at
what the market wanted.
YOUR CALL
Is being in first place the most dangerous place for decision makers? Do you
think some of today’s hot companies—Apple, Google, FedEx, or Costco—on
Fortune’s Most Admired list could experience what happened to Kodak?
Being in first place is always a difficult position because you have to maintain your
lead instead of pushing ahead of your competitors. Keeping a lead, just like in a
political election, is never an easy task as it is more difficult to benchmark. Many
of the mentioned companies can experience what happened to Kodak if they do
not adapt to the times. Nevertheless, the thinking on innovation today, especially
with organizations such as Apple and Google, is much different than the Kodak
days. Today innovation is part of the fabric of many of these organizations and
daily decisions are made with this in mind.
Additional Activities:
One way to build on this Example is to have the students watch the New York Times
video “After the Kodak Moment.” This 6-minute video provides a poignant look at
Kodak since its decline. Consider using the following discussion questions:
How should Kodak have applied the steps in rational decision making to address
the decline in film sales?
Discuss hindrances to perfectly rational decision making that may have negatively
impacted the decision-making process at Kodak.
Do you think Kodak is posed for success today given its current strategy? Defend
your point of view.
Video Link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDzQ1gx71EI

B. Decision Making in the Real World.

1. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman describes two kinds of thinking, which he
labels System 1 and System 2.
a. System 1—intuitive and largely unconscious: System 1 operates
automatically and quickly; it is our fast, automatic, intuitive, and
largely unconscious mode.
b. System 2—analytical and conscious: System 2 is our slow,
deliberate, analytical, and consciously effortful mode of reasoning.
2. With the curse of knowledge, we may be less and less able to see things
from an outsider’s perspective as our knowledge and expertise grow and
hence we are often apt to make irrational decisions.
C. Rational Decision Making: Managers Should Make Logical & Optimal Decisions
1. The rational model of decision making, also called the classical model,
explains how managers should make decisions.
2. It assumes managers will make logical decisions that will be the optimum
in furthering the organization’s best interests.
2. There are four stages associated with rational decision making.
a. Stage 1: Identify the problem or opportunity
(1) Problems are difficulties that inhibit the achievement of goals.
(2) Opportunities are situations that present possibilities for
exceeding existing goals.
(3) How to change conditions from the present to the desirable is a
matter of diagnosis – analyzing the underlying causes.
b. Stage 2: Think up alternative solutions – both the obvious and the
creative.
(1) After you’ve identified the problem or opportunity and diagnosed
its causes, you need to come up with alternative solutions.
c. Stage 3: Evaluate alternatives and select a solution – ethics,
feasibility, and effectiveness.
(1) Is it ethical? If it isn’t ethical, you shouldn’t give it a second look.
(2) Is it feasible? A proposed solution may not be feasible for a
variety of reasons.
(3) Is it ultimately effective? Short-term “good enough” solutions
may not be the best in the long term.
d. Stage 4: Implement and evaluate the solution chosen.
(1) With some decisions, implementation is usually straightforward.
(2) With other decisions, the implementation can be quite difficult.
(3) For implementation to be successful, you need to plan carefully
and be sensitive to those affected.
(4) You also need to follow-up and evaluate the results of the
decision and take action. If it is not working, some possibilities:
i. Give it more time.
ii. Change it slightly.
iii. Try another alternative.
 iv. Start over.

Interactive Classroom Material:

EXAMPLE: Making a Correct Diagnosis: Who’s Better at Financial Decisions,
Men or Women? (p. 192)
Warren Buffett is the renowned billionaire investor known as the “Oracle of Omaha”
who heads the financial juggernaut Berkshire Hathaway. His investment decisions
are so successful that $1,000 invested with him in 1957 was worth $30 million in
2014. It seems that Buffett and female investors have something in common.
Women trade less often than men, do a lot more research and tend to base their
investment decisions on considerations other than just numbers. Buffett’s style is
similar. He uses basic arithmetic to analyze annual reports and other company
financial documents and takes pains to make a correct diagnosis before making a
decision.
YOUR CALL
When preparing to make important decisions—especially financial decisions—
do you spend a lot of time trying to make a correct diagnosis, doing deep
research (as women investors are said to do), or do you chase “hot” tips and
make snap judgments (as men reportedly do)?
Answers here are pretty subjective, but a good mix of both characteristics can lead
to success in all measures of decision making. Taking time to do your research
will assist in making more informed decisions, but sometimes one must make a
quick decision in order to reap benefits.
Additional Activities:
One way to build on this Example is to have the students watch the Morningstar video
“The Challenges Facing Women Investors Today.” In this 7-minute video, Kristen
Robinson of Fidelity Investments discusses the results of Fidelity’s latest annual
Money FIT Women Study. The study looks at how women view and address their
finances. A summary of the study is provided at the link below. Consider using the
following discussion questions:
Discuss some of the key differences between how women approach investing as
compared to men.
 Assume you are an investment manager at Fidelity. How could you use the
results of this study to help attract more female clients and/or get female clients to
invest more aggressively?
Extrapolate the results of this study to make general conclusions about how
women might approach managerial decision making differently than men.
Video Link:
http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=701817
Report Link:
https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/women-fit-
money-study.pdf

SELF-ASSESSMENT 7.1 (p. 193)

Assessing Your Problem-Solving Potential
Go to connect.mheducation.com and take Self-Assessment 7.1.
Student Questions:
1. What is the status of your problem-solving skills? Are you surprised by the
results?
Student responses will differ based on assessment results. Many students
will be surprised to see that their current approach to problem-solving may not
be as effective as they had thought. Others will be more assured that they are
on the right track.
2. Based on identifying the four lowest scored items on the assessment, what
can you do to improve your problem-solving skills? Explain.
Generally, individuals should consider long-term consequences associated
with implementing solutions, generate multiple outcomes when dealing with a
work problem and implement solutions in a timely and effective manner, with a
follow-up planned.
3. Reflect on a recent decision you made that did not turn out to your
satisfaction. Now, consider what you learned about the rational model and
 your problem-solving skills and think through the decision for a second time.
What would you do differently based on these considerations?
Students should implement actual steps from the rational model and apply
them to their recent decision. They can then state which step or steps they
need to work on.
Additional Activities:
You can also consult the Connect Instructors Manual for the post-assessment activity
and corresponding PowerPoint slides used for this Self-Assessment in Connect. In
this activity, students can be divided into groups based on their scores on the
assessment. The groups can review the scenario on a slide provided in the slide
deck. Each group is to write a one-two paragraph speech that the CEO is to give to
the company’s employees that discusses the ethical dilemma presented. The class
should discuss as a whole based on each groups’ scores on the assessment. Have
the students consider if the scores affected the type of speech given

Interactive Classroom Material:

EXAMPLE: Faulty Implementation: Customer Service Is Often “Just Talk” (pp.
193-194)
One study found that only 6% of shoppers who experienced a problem with a retailer
contacted the company. However, 31% went on to tell friends, family, and colleagues
what had happened. Indeed, if 100 people have a bad experience, a retailer stands
to lose between 32 and 36 current or potential customers, according to the study.
YOUR CALL
What do you think the self-serve trend means for customer service?
Self-serve means that customer service may slowly become nonexistent, or
become computer-assisted service. Complaints now may be centered on
technological issues rather than human interactions. The result may still be the
same whereas a customer upset with a technology-assisted process may not shop
at a specific location, and may still complain to his or her friends and family.
However, this experience may not be as damaging to a company as a bad human
interaction.
Additional Activities:
One way to build on this Example is to have the students watch the ABC News
202/20 segment “How Ex-Customer Service Reps Say They Dealt with Unruly
Customers.” This 7-minute video profiles the decline of customer service, from the
perspective of customer service agents and customers. Consider using the following
discussion questions:
Discuss the reasons why it can be difficult to motivate customer service agents.
Before calling customer service, why might it be beneficial for customers to “step
inside the shoes of the customer service agent?”
 Discuss how providing a more motivating work environment similar to that used by
Zappos might improve customer service.
Video Link:
http://abcnews.go.com/2020/video/customer-service-reps-dealt-unruly-customers-
29971362

Interactive Classroom Material:

EXAMPLE: Evaluation: The Boeing 787 Dreamliner, a Bet-the-Company
Decision (pp. 194-195)
When Boeing was losing business to its European rival Airbus, the company was
wracked by scandals involving Pentagon contracts, and rising fuel costs were
dramatically impacting the commercial airline industry. Boeing management made a
bold decision: It would build a new medium-sized commercial jet, the 787 Dreamliner.
First planned for a summer 2007 launch, the date was revised for 2008. Then the
company began encountering a number of problems. In October 2007, Boeing
announced it would no longer meet its May 2008 target date and was postponing its
first delivery to late fall of that year. It later changed the date to the first quarter of
2009, and then rescheduled it again – to the third quarter of 2009. Finally, the
Dreamliner had its first flight in December 2009 but was not put into service until
October 2011 – 3 years behind schedule.
YOUR CALL
How would you evaluate Boeing’s decisions? Do you think despite all the effort
on the 787-8 that the Dash Nine could cause Boeing to fail to break even on the
787-8, with airlines switching their orders to the newer aircraft? Was this a
risky bet-the-company decision?
Boeing is attempting to correct many of the issues with the 787-8 with the 787-9
(Dash Nine). There was some poor decision making on the 787-8, but that does
not mean that Boeing should not create a better aircraft for the market, if possible,
with the Dash Nine. This may be risky for the organization, but is the right thing to
do and may mean that the profits from the 787-9 can assist it with any losses with
the 787-8.
Additional Activities:
One way to build on this Example is to have the students read the Wall Street Journal
article “With Plates Full, Boeing and Airbus Plot Next Moves.” The article profiles
some of the strategic decisions being made by the rival firms. Consider using the
following discussion questions:
Using the rational decision making model, analyze whether it would be a good
decision for Boeing to focus on building a new jet to replace its out-of-production
757.
Discuss the hindrances to perfectly rational decision making that could have
 impacted the 787 Dreamliner project.
Using the material from Chapter 6, perform a Porter’s Five Forces analysis on the
commercial jetliner industry. What are the key factors impacting the attractiveness
of this industry?
Article Citation:
Ostrower, J., & Wall, R. (2015, June 17). With plates full, Boeing and Airbus plot next
moves. Wall Street Journal Online.
ProQuest Document ID: 1689386772
http://www.wsj.com/articles/with-plates-full-boeing-and-airbus-plot-next-moves-
1434563188u

D. What’s Wrong with the Rational Model?

1. The rational model is prescriptive, describing how managers ought to make
decisions, not how managers actually make decisions.
2. The rational model makes three unrealistic assumptions:
a. Complete information, no uncertainty. Managers should have complete,
error-free information about all alternative courses of action and their
consequences.
b. Logical, unemotional analysis. Managers should have no prejudices or
emotional blind spots.
c. Best decision for the organization. Managers should choose the
alternative they believe will best benefit the organization.

E. Nonrational Decision Making: Managers Find It Difficult to Make Optimum

Decisions
1. Nonrational models of decision making explain how managers do
make decisions.
a. They assume that decision making is nearly always uncertain and risky
making it difficult for managers to make optimum decisions.
 a. The nonrational models are descriptive rather than prescriptive; they
describe how managers actually make decisions.

2. Bounded rationality and the satisficing model: “satisfactory is good

enough.”
a. Herbert Simon’s research found that managers could not act truly
logically because their rationality was bounded by so many
restrictions.
b. Called bounded rationality, the concept suggests that the ability of
decision makers to be rational is limited by numerous constraints.

c. As a result, managers don’t make an exhaustive search for the best

alternative.
d. Instead, they follow the satisficing model—that is, managers seek
alternatives until they find one that is satisfactory, not optimal.
3. The Intuition Model: “It just feels right”
a. Going with your gut, or intuition, is making a choice without the use of
conscious thought or logical interference.
b. Sources of intuition are:
(1) expertise – a person’s explicit and tacit knowledge about a
person, situation, object or decision opportunity.
(2) feelings – the automatic, underlying emotions that a person
experiences about those same matters.
c. Intuition has at least two benefits:
(1) it can speed up decision making when deadlines are tight
(2) It can be helpful when resources are limited.
d. A drawback of intuition is that others may not see your logic, and
therefore be hard to convince.
(Correct answer is A)

Assessing Your Level of Intuition

Go to connect.mheducation.com and take Self-Assessment 7.2.
Student Questions:
1. Are you intuitive at work? Did the results surprise you?
Student responses will differ based on assessment results. Many students
will be surprised to see their high or level levels of intuition at work.
2. What can you do to increase the amount of intuition you use at work?
There are different general ways to increase intuition. Students can
sometimes go without a plan and/or circumventing regular habits. Though we
teach proper planning, it does not mean that everything and everyday has to
be planned. For example, believe it or not, daydreaming at work is a sign of
good intuition!
3. What factors are inhibiting your use of intuition? What if anything can be done
to eliminate these hindrances?
Students should build on their response to Question 2. Possible inhibitions at
work can be micromanagement by one’s boss and/or a bureaucratic work
environment.
Additional Activities:
You can also consult the Connect Instructors Manual for the post-assessment activity
and corresponding PowerPoint slides used for this Self-Assessment in Connect. In
this activity, students should be put into groups based on their Self-Assessment
scores with high scorers in the same group and low scorers in the same group. High
scorers should review the cons of intuition slide (in slide deck) and brainstorm
examples of these cons in the workplace, and low scorers should do the same for the
pros of intuition slide (in slide deck). The groups should then reveal their examples
to the class as a whole, and you can lead discussion.

Group Exercise #1: Trying to Solve an “Electric” Problem in Managerial Planning

There is a group exercise available at the end of this manual that allows students
apply what they have learned about planning and problem-solving.
Exercise Objectives
• To assess a specific problem where planning is required.
• To arrive at a mutual and effective solution as a group, taking into
consideration different perspectives and different goals.

7.2 Making Ethical Decisions (pp. 199-200)

What guidelines can I follow to be sure that decisions I make are not just
lawful but ethical?

Section 7.2 discusses a decision tree, which can help one make ethical decisions. One
way that you could begin your coverage of these topics is to have the students read the
Harvard Business Review article “Is It Ever OK to Break a Promise?” This article is a
HBR Case Study and includes a fictional case and case commentary by industry
experts. In this case, a student must decide whether to break his promise and leave the
company that sponsored his MBA to be able to accept a dream job. Using this case
study would a relevant way for students to apply the ethical decision tree.
Article Citation:
Bearden, N., Oelschlegel, C., & Brown, J. (2014). Is it ever OK to break a promise?
Harvard Business Review, 92(9), 119-123.
Product #: R1409L-PDF-ENG
Possible Topics for Discussion:
• Think of a time when you were not sure if a course of action you were
considering was ethical or not. How could you have applied the ethical decision
tree in Figure 7.3 to help you make a decision?
• What are the limitations of using the ethical decision tree presented in the
chapter?
• Using the Harvard Business Review article “Is It Ever OK to Break a Promise?”
as your foundation, apply the ethical decision tree from Figure 7.3 to provide
specific recommendations for how Sameer Hopskin should deal with the current
situation.
Major Idea Outline:
A. The Dismal Record of Business Ethics
1. Recent high-profile scandals have spurred interest in ethical decision
making.
 3. Many companies now have an ethics officer, someone trained about
matters of ethics in the workplace, particularly about resolving ethical
dilemmas.
4. Managers now must try to make sure their decisions are not just lawful but
also ethical.

B. Road Map to Ethical Decision Making: A Decision Tree

1. Businesses continually try to balance the pressure to maximize
shareholder value while acting ethically.
2. A decision tree is a graph of decisions and their possible consequences;
it is used to create a plan to reach a goal.
3. When confronted with a decision, a manager should ask the following
questions:
a. Is the proposed action legal? If it isn’t, don’t do it.
b. If “yes,” does the proposed action maximize shareholder value?
c. If “yes,” is the proposed action ethical?
d. If “no,” would it be ethical not to take the proposed action?
C. As a basic guideline to making good ethical decisions, directors, managers and
employees need to follow their own individual ideas about right and wrong.
Group Exercise #2: Ethical Decision Making
There is a group exercise available at the end of this manual that allows students to
gain practice in ethical decision making.
Exercise Objectives
• To look at the stages in practical decision making.
• To gain practice in ethical decision making.

7.3 Evidence-Based Decision Making & Analytics (pp. 201-

205)
How can I improve my decision making using evidence-based
management and business analytics?

Section 7.3 discusses the seven principles for implementing evidence-based decision
making. Overall, it is sometimes difficult to bring this approach to bear on one’s
decision making. Lastly, there is a discussion on analytics and its three key attributes.
One way that you could begin your coverage of these topics is to have the students
read the Harvard Business Review article “The CEO of Williams-Sonoma on Blending
Instinct with Analysis.” The article profiles how the retailer is able to use data to
improve its strategy.
Article Citation:
Alber, L. (2014). The CEO of Williams-Sonoma on blending instinct with analysis.
Harvard Business Review, 93(9), 41-44.
Product #: R1409A-PDF-ENG
Possible Topics for Discussion:
• Describe industries or products that will undergo dramatic transformation as our
ability to capture and process data improves.
• What concerns should we have about “Big Data?”
• Using the Harvard Business Review article “The CEO of Williams-Sonoma on
Blending Instinct with Analysis” as your foundation, describe examples of
evidence-based decision making and Big Data uses profiled in the article.
Major Idea Outline:
A. Evidence-Based Decision Making
1. Evidence-based management means translating principles based on
best evidence into organizational practice.
2. Seven implementation principles help companies that are committed to
doing what it takes to profit from evidence-based management, as follows:
a. Treat your organization as an unfinished prototype – Don’t be
concerned that your organization will be ruined by dangerous new
ideas or that it is impossible to change because of employee or
management resistance.
b. Follow the slogan “No brag, just facts” – Many assertions are made
with complete disregard for facts; ignore them.
c. See yourself and your organization as others do – Most managers
have inflated views of their own talents and prospects for success.
(1) This causes them to downplay risks and continue on the same
paths despite evidence that things are not working.
d. Evidence-based management is not just for senior executives – The
best organizations are those in which everyone is guided by the
responsibility to gather and act on quantitative and qualitative data.
e. Like everything else, you still need to sell it – New and exciting ideas
grab attention even when they are vastly inferior to old ideas.
(1) You need to grab management’s attention by using vivid stories to
sell preferred practices based on solid if unexciting evidence.
f. If all else fails, slow the spread of bad practices – It may be necessary
for you to practice so-called “evidence-based misbehavior.”
g. The best diagnostic question: what happens when people fail? –
When something goes wrong, you need to:
(1) Face the hard facts.
(2) Learn what happened and why.
(3) Keep using those facts to make the system better.
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
“Music,” she breathed, “and such music! The very music
of Heaven!”

Moments passed, and still with slightly bowed heads, as [120]

if listening to the Angelus, they stood there, still as
statues, listening to the strange music.

“The woods were God’s first temples,” Marian

whispered.

For the moment she lived as in a trance. A great lover of

music, she felt the thrill of perfect melody breaking over
her soul like bright waves upon golden sand. She
fancied that this melody had no human origin, that it
was a spontaneous outburst from the very heart of the
forest; God himself speaking through the mute life of
earth.

When this illusion had passed she still stood there

wondering.

“Attatak, what day of the week is this?”

For a moment Attatak did not answer. She was counting

on her fingers.

“Sunday,” she said at last.

“Sunday,” Marian repeated. “And that is a pipe organ.

How wonderful! How perfectly beautiful! A pipe organ in
the midst of the forest!”

“And yet,” she hesitated, scarcely daring to believe her [121]

senses, “how could a pipe organ be brought way up
here?”
“But it is!” she affirmed a few seconds later. “Attatak,
you watch the deer while I go ahead and find out what
sort of place it is, and whether there are dangerous
dogs about.”

Her wonder grew with every step that she took in the
direction of the mysterious musician. As she came
closer, and the tones became more distinct, she knew
that she could not be mistaken.

“It’s a pipe organ,” she told herself with conviction, “and

a splendid one at that! Who in all the world would bring
such a wonderful instrument away up here? Strange I
have never heard of this settlement. It must be a rather
large village or they could not afford such an organ for
their church.”

As she thought of these things, and as the rise and fall [122]
of the music still came sweeping through the trees, a
strange spell fell upon her. It was as if she were resting
upon the soft, cushioned seat of some splendid church.
With the service appealing to her sense of the artistic
and the beautiful, and to her instinct of reverence; with
the soft lights pervading all, she was again in the chapel
of her own university.

“Oh!” she cried, “I do hope it’s a real church and that

we’re not too late for the service.”

One thought troubled her as she hurried forward. If this

was a large village, where were the tracks of dog teams
that must surely be travelling up the river; trappers
going out over their lines of traps; hunters seeking
caribou; prospectors starting away over the trail for a
fresh search for the ever illusive yellow gold? Surely all
these would have left a well beaten trail. Yet since the
last snow there had not been a single team passing that
way.

“It’s like a village of the dead,” she mused, and shivered

at the thought.

When at last she rounded a turn and came within full

sight of the place from which the enchanting tones
issued, the sight that met her eyes caused her to start
back and stare with surprise and amazement.

She had expected to find a cluster of log cabins; a [123]

store, a church and a school. Instead, she saw a
yawning hole in a bank of snow; a hole that was
doubtless an entrance to some sort of structure.
Whether the structure was built of sod, logs, or merely
of snow, she could not guess. Some thirty feet from this
entrance, and higher, apparently perched on the crust of
snow, were two such cupola affairs as Marian had seen
on certain types of sailing vessels and gasoline
schooners. From these there streamed a pale yellow
light.

“Well!” she exclaimed. “Well, of all things!”

For a moment, undecided whether to flee from that

strange place, she stood stock still.

The organ, for the moment, was stilled. The woods

were silent. Such a hush as she had never experienced
in all her life lay over all. Then, faint, indistinct, came a
single note of music. Someone had touched a key. The
next instant the world seemed filled with the most
wonderful melody.

“Handel’s Largo,” she whispered as she stood there [124]

enchanted. Of all pipe organ music, she loved Handel’s
Largo best. Throughout the rendering of the entire
selection, she stood as one enchanted.

“It is enough,” she said when the sound of the last note
had died away in the tree tops. “It’s all very mysterious,
but any person who can play Handel’s Largo like that is
not going to be unkind to two girls who are far from
home. I’m going in.”

With unfaltering footsteps she started forward.

[125]
 CHAPTER XV
AN OLD MAN OF THE NORTH

Having walked resolutely to the black hole in the snow

bank, Marian looked within. There was no door; merely
an opening here. A dim lamp in the distance sent an
uncertain and ghostly light down the corridor. By this
light she made out numerous posts and saw that a
narrow passage-way ran between them.

There was something so mysterious about the place

that she hesitated on the threshold. At that moment a
thought flashed through her mind, a startling and
disheartening thought.

“Radio,” she murmured, “nothing but radio.”

She was convinced in an instant that her solution of the

origin of the wonderful music was correct.

The persons who lived in this strange dwelling, which [126]

reminded her of pictures she had seen of the dens and
caves of robbers and brigands, had somehow come into
possession of a powerful radio receiving set.
Somewhere in Nome, or Fairbanks, or perhaps even in
Seattle—a noted musician was giving an organ recital.
This radio set with its loud speaker had picked up the
music and had faithfully reproduced it. That was all
there was to the mystery. There was no pipe organ, no
skillful musician out here in the forest wilderness. It had
been stupid of her to think there might be.

This revelation, for revelation it surely seemed to be,

was both disappointing and disturbing. Disappointing,
because in her adventure-loving soul she had hoped to
discover here in the wilderness a thing that to all
appearances could not be—a modern miracle.
Disturbing it was, too, for since a mere instrument, a
radio-phone, has no soul, the character of the person
who operated it might be anything at all. She could not
conceive of the person who actually touched the keys
and caused that divine music to pour forth as a villain.
Any sort of person, however, might snap on the switch
that sends such music vibrating from the horn of the
loud speaker of a radiophone.

For a full five minutes she wavered between two [127]

courses of action; to go on inside this den, or to go back
to Attatak and attempt to pass it unobserved.

Perhaps it was the touch of a finger on what she

supposed to be a far off key—the resuming of the
music; perhaps it was her own utter weariness that
decided her at last. Whatever it was, she set a resolute
foot inside the entrance, and the next instant found
herself carefully picking her way down the dark passage
toward the dim lamp.

To her surprise, when she at last reached the lamp that

hung over a door, she found not an oil lamp, but a small
electric light bulb.
“Will marvels never cease?” she whispered.

For a second she hesitated. Should she knock? She

hated spying; yet the door stood invitingly ajar. If the
persons within did not appear to be the sort of persons
a girl might trust; if she could see them and remain
unobserved, there was still opportunity for flight.

Acting upon this impulse, she peered through the crack [128]
in the door.

Imagine her surprise upon seeing at the far end of a

long, high-ceilinged, heavily timbered room, not a radio
horn, but a pipe organ.

“So,” she breathed, “my first thought was right. That

enchanting music was produced on the spot. And by
such a musician!”

Seated with his side toward her, was the bent figure of
an old man. His long, flowing white beard, his snowy
locks, the dreamy look upon his face as his fingers
drifted back and forth across the keys, reminded her of
pictures she had seen of ancient bards playing upon
golden harps.

“‘Harp of the North that mouldering long has hung,’”

she recited in a low voice.

The fingers on the keys suddenly ceased their drifting,

the dreamy look faded from the musician’s face. A smile
lighted his eyes as, turning about, he spoke in a cheery
voice:

“Come in. I have been waiting for you. You are welcome [129]
to an old man’s lonely house; doubly welcome, coming
as you do in time for Sunday vespers.”
This strange, almost uncanny proceeding so startled the
girl that for a second she was tempted to turn and flee.
The next second she had complete control of herself.
Pushing the door open, as if entering the chamber of
the king of fairies, she made a little bow and said:

“Thank you.”

Then, realizing how perfectly absurd her action had

been, she broke into a hearty laugh and in this laugh
the old man joined.

So, with the ice broken, they became friends at once.

To her vast relief she found that the old man, though he
had undoubtedly been expecting them or someone else,
did not know all about them. He asked if they travelled
with dog team or reindeer. Upon being told that they
drove reindeer, he smiled and said:

“Good. It’s lucky I have feed for your deer. Reindeer [130]
people seldom come this way. Once I was caught
unprepared to entertain them, so last autumn I put in a
good stock of moss and willow leaves. Your deer shall
be safely housed and richly fed, and so shall you. Go
bring them at once. Or shall I go with you?”

“Oh no; that is not necessary,” Marian hastened to

assure him.

“Very well then, while you go I will put the birds on to

broil. You are doubtless very hungry.”

Ten minutes later Marian was chattering to Attatak:

“The queerest place you ever saw; and the strangest

old gentleman. But really, I think he is a dear.”
[131]
 CHAPTER XVI
THE BARRIER

The curiosity of the two girls knew no bounds as they

neared the strange abode. Who was this man? Why did
he live here all by himself? How had he brought his pipe
organ to this remote spot? Whence had come those
peculiar skylights through which the yellow light
gleamed? Whence came the power for those electric
lights? How had this strange man known of their
coming? Or had he known? Had he been expecting
someone else and had he, as a perfect host, pretended
it was Marian he had known to be at the door? These,
and many other questions, flashed through Marian’s
alert mind as she guided her deer over the remaining
distance and up to the entrance to the cave-like
structure.

Lights flashed on here and there as they passed inside. [132]

A long corridor, walled on either side by hewn logs, led
to a stall-like room where was food in abundance for
their reindeer, and, what was better still, perfect
protection from any night prowler.

Marian was wondering what sort of meal was being

prepared for them when they were at last led into the
large room. Here, on the side opposite the pipe organ,
great logs crackled merrily in a fireplace half as wide as
the room itself.

After taking their fur parkas, the host motioned them to

seats beside the fire. There, charmed by the drowsy
warmth, Marian experienced great difficulty in keeping
awake. Strange fancies floated through her mind. She
fancied she was aboard a ship at sea; the walls about
her were the walls of her state-room; the huge beams
above, the ship’s beams; the strange cupola affairs
above, the lights to her cabin.

As she shook herself free from this fancy, she realized

that aside from the fireplace, the inside of the room was
very like a cabin of a high class schooner.

“It must all come from some vessel,” she reasoned. [133]
“Even the lighting fixtures look as if they had been
taken from a ship. I wonder what ship, and why?”

She thought of stories she had read of beach combers

who wrecked ships by displaying fake shore lights on
stormy nights that they might gather the wreckage from
the beach. For a moment she fancied this bearded
patriarch playing such a role. Finding this too absurd
even for fancy, she shook herself free from it.

“Food,” she murmured to herself, “I’m ravenously

hungry. He spoke of putting on the birds. I wonder what
he could have meant?”

She did not have long to wait. A moment later there

came to her nostrils the delicious aroma of perfectly
brewed coffee. Mingled with it were various savory
odors which gave promise of a rich meal.
“You are not yet fully warmed,” said their host, “so you
may eat by the fire.”

He was pushing before him a tea-wagon of wonderful [134]

design and craftsmanship. This was fairly creaking
under its load of chinaware of exquisite design, and
silver which did not require a second look to tell that it
was sterling. Marian barely avoided a gasp at sight of it.

If the service was perfect, the food was no less so. Four
ptarmigan, those wonderful “quail of the Arctic,” broiled
to a delicious turn, were flanked with potatoes, gravy,
peas and apple sauce. The desert was blueberries
preserved in wild honey.

“Only idleness or indifference,” smiled their host as he

caught their looks of appreciation, “can hinder one from
securing appetizing foods in any land.”

“And now,” he said as they finished, “there are

questions you may wish to ask; information that you
may wish to impart.”

“Why—we—” Marian began in some confusion.

He interrupted her with a wave of the hand. “It will all [135]
keep until morning. This habit young people have, of
sitting up talking all hours of the night because life
seems too exciting for sleep, is all wrong. You are in
need of rest. ‘Everything in its good time’ is my motto.
Fortunately my guest room is warm. The fire is not yet
burned out. Last night I had the honor of furnishing a
night’s lodging to the Agent of our Government.”

“The Agent?” Marian asked in surprise.

“Yes. He came up here to ask me about the lay of the
land above here. I think,” there was a merry twinkle in
his eye, “that I may lay claim to being the oldest
resident of this town. No doubt I was able to give him
some valuable information.”

“And he is—is gone?” Marian gasped.

“Left this morning. Why? Did you wish to see him?

Surely—yes, you would. Being connected with the
reindeer business, you would. Unfortunate that you did
not reach here a few hours earlier. He left on foot. The
trail around the rapids is rough. He did not try to bring
his dogs and sleds through. Left them with his driver at
the foot of the rapids. Well enough that he did. Couldn’t
have made it.”

Upon realizing that she had missed the man she had [136]
come so far to see, Marian could have burst into tears.

“You may find him at the Station, though,” her host

assured her. “I believe he means to stay there a day or
two. His dogs are footsore from travelling over crusted
snow.”

Marian’s heart gave a leap of joy. But what was this

about the trail and the rapids?

“Did—did you say that one could not pass over the trail
with a sled?” she asked in the calmest tone she could
command. “Are the rapids not yet frozen over?”

“Frozen?” he stared at her incredulously. “Have you not

heard them? Ah, then, you came from up stream. The
forest shuts out the sound. Slip on your parka and come
with me, and you shall hear. It is grand music, that
ceaseless rush and roar, that beating of waters and
tumbling of ice.”

It may have seemed glorious to the old man, but to

Marian, who listened to the wild tumult of waters, it was
frightening and disheartening.

“Can a boat run the rapids?” she asked, though she [137]
knew the question was foolish and that no boat could
run them.

“None ever has.”

“Can—can a sled pass over the trail above?”

“None has. None can. The way is too rough; the trees
too closely crowded together. Dogs, reindeer, men, yes;
but sleds, no.”

“How far is it to the station?” Marian faltered.

“Three days journey.”

“Are there any houses on the way?”

“None.”

“Then, without our sleds, we would not dare undertake

the journey.”

“No. It would not do. You would starve or freeze.”

It required all Marian’s power of will to remain standing

as she faltering said; “Then we are defeated. We—we
must turn back. We—” She could not go on.

The aged man studied her face for a moment. Then

quietly he asked:
“Is it very important that you get to the station; that [138]
you see the Agent?”

“Oh, very, very important! We—”

Again he motioned for silence. “Do not tell me now. I

think it can be arranged that your sleds may pass the
rapids. It shall be arranged. I promise it. Come, you are
worn out. It is time you should sleep.”

[139]
 CHAPTER XVII
AGE SERVES YOUTH

The two girls had carried no suit-case, satchel or duffel

bag on this trip. Their spare clothing was stowed away
in their sleeping bags. When their host had lighted their
way to the room that was to be theirs for the night, and
had retired to his large room, they tip-toed back to their
sleds, unlashed their sleeping bags and carried them as
they were to their room.

For some hours Marian had not thought of the ancient

treasure found in the cave, but once she began
unrolling her sleeping bag she was reminded of it. A
piece of old ivory went clattering to the floor. With a cry
of surprise she picked it up, then carefully removed the
other pieces of ivory, copper and ancient pottery and
stood them in a row against the wall.

Again there came the temptation to give them a [140]

thorough examination. Events transpired later that
caused her to wish that she had done so. But weary and
troubled by the turn affairs had taken, she again put off
this inviting task. She slipped at once into her sleeping
gown and plunged beneath the covers of the most
delightful bed she had ever known. Attatak followed her
a few seconds later.

They found themselves lying upon a bed of springy

moss mixed with the fragrant tips of balsam. Over this
had been thrown wolfskin robes. With one of these
beneath them, and two above, they snuggled down
until only their noses were showing.

They did not sleep at once. Left to himself, the

mysterious old man had seated himself at his organ,
and now sent forth such wild, pealing tones as Marian
had never heard before. He was doing Dvorjak’s wildest
symphony, and making it wilder and more weird than
even the composer himself could have dreamed it might
be made.

Throughout its rendition, Marian lay tense as a bow- [141]

string. As it ended with a wild, racing crash, she settled
back with a shiver, wondering what could throw such a
spell over an old man as would cause him to play in that
manner.

Had she known the reason she would have done little
sleeping that night. The aged host was tuning his soul
to such a key as would nerve him for a Herculean task.

Since Marian did not know, she puzzled for a time over
the trail they must travel in the morning; wondered
vaguely how her host was to keep his promise of
bringing their sleds safely past the rapids; then fell
asleep.

As for their host, fifteen minutes after the last note of

his wild symphony had died away, he tip-toed down the
silent corridor which led to the door of the room in
which the girls were sleeping. Having convinced himself
by a moment of listening that they were asleep, he
made his way to the spot where their two sleds had
been left. These he examined carefully. After
straightening up, he murmured:

“Took their sleeping-bags. That’s bad. Didn’t need ’em. [142]

Can’t disturb ’em now. Guess it can be managed.”

After delivering himself of this monologue, he

proceeded to wrap the contents of each sled in a water-
proof blanket, then dragged them out into the
moonlight.

Having strapped an axe, a pick and a shovel on one

sled, he tied the other sled to it and began pulling them
over the smooth downhill trail that led toward the falls.

For a full mile he plodded stolidly on. Then he halted,

separated the sleds, and with the foremost sled gliding
on before him, plunged down a steep bank to the right.
Presently he came toiling back up the hill for the other
sled.

At the bottom once more, he stood for a moment

staring into the foaming depths of a roaring torrent.

“Pretty bad,” he muttered. “Never did it before at this

time of year. Might fail. Might—”

Suddenly he broke off and began humming, “Tum—te— [143]

tum—tum—tum.” He was going over and over that mad
symphony. It appeared to give him strength and
courage, and seizing the pick, he began hacking away
at some object that lay half buried in the snow.

Fifteen minutes later he had exhumed a short, square

raft.
“Built you for other purposes, but you’ll do for this,” he
muttered. “Other logs where you came from.”

He set both sleds carefully upon the raft; then with

yards upon yards of rawhide rope, lashed them solidly
to it.

This done, he began running out a heavier rope. This he

carried up the bank to a spot where there was a mass
of jagged rock covered here and there by hard packed
snow.

More than once he slipped, but always he struggled

upward until at last he stood upon the topmost
pinnacle. A heroic figure silhouetted in the moonlight,
he stood for a full five minutes staring down at the
racing waters below. Dancing in the moonlight, they
appeared to reach out black hands to grasp and drag
him down.

Before him, on the opposite side, gleamed a high white [144]

bank. A sheer precipice of ice fifty feet high, this was
the end of a glacier that every now and again sent a
thousand tons of ice thundering into the deep pool at its
foot.

Beneath this ice barrier the water had worn a channel.

A boat drifting down on the rushing waters would
certainly be sucked down beneath this ice and be
crushed like an eggshell.

What the old man intended to do was evident enough.

He meant to set the raft, laden with the sleds and
trappings so precious to his young guests, afloat in
those turbulent waters and then to attempt by means of
the rope to hold it from being drawn beneath the ice,
and to guide it a half mile down the river to quieter
waters below. There was no path for him to follow.
Jagged rocks and ice-like snow, slippery as glass,
awaited him; yet he dared to try it.

Here was a task fit for the youngest and the strongest;
yet there he stood, the spirit of a hero flowing in his
veins—age serving youth. The gallantry of a great and
perfect gentleman bowing to fair ladies and daring all.
How Marian would have thrilled at sight of this daring
act.

With a swift turn he tightened the rope, then with the [145]
“de—de—dum” of his symphony upon his lips, strained
every muscle until he felt the rope slack, then eased
away as he saw the raft tilt for the glide. Then he
relaxed his muscles and stood there watching.

With a slow graceful movement the small raft glided out

upon the water. An eddy seized it and whirled it about.
Three times it turned, then the current caught it, and
whirled it away. The rope was tight now, and every
muscle of the grand old man was tense. A battle had
begun which was to decide whether or not the two girls
were to reach the station and fulfill their mission.

[146]
 CHAPTER XVIII
THE TRAIL OF BLOOD

That same evening Patsy made her second startling

discovery. An hour before night was to set in, she had
harnessed a sled deer and struck out into the hills in
search of a brown yearling that had been missing for
two days.

“Strange where they all go,” she murmured as she

climbed a hill for a better view of the surrounding
country. “Marian was right; unless we discover the
cause of these disappearances and put an end to them,
soon there will be no herd. It’s a shame! How I wish I
could make the discovery all by myself and surprise
Marian with the good news when she gets home.”

As she scanned the horizon away across to the west,

she saw a single dark figure on the crest of a hill.

“Old Omnap-puk,” she said, taking in with admiration [147]

the full sweep of his splendid antlers. “It’s the first time
I’ve seen him for a long while. We can’t lose you, can
we? And we can’t catch you,” she said, speaking to the
lone figure.
Old Omnap-puk was neither reindeer nor caribou; at
least this was what Marian had said about it. She
believed that he was a cross-breed—half reindeer and
half caribou. He was large like a caribou, larger than the
largest deer in the herd. He had something of the dark
brown coat of the caribou, but a bright white spot on
his left side told of the reindeer blood that flowed in his
veins.

But he was very wild. Haunting the edge of the herd, he

never came close enough to be lassoed or driven into a
brush corral. Many a wild chase had he lead the
herders, but always he had shown them his sleek brown
heels.

Many times the girls had debated the question of [148]

allowing the herders to kill him for food and for his
splendid coat; yet they had hesitated. They were not
sure that he was not a full-blooded reindeer; that he
was not marked and did not belong to someone. If he
was a stray reindeer, they had no right to kill him.
Besides this, it seemed a pity to kill such a wonderful
creature. So the matter stood. And here he was on their
feeding ground.

As Patsy stood there gazing at this splendid creature,

she slowly realized that the Arctic sun had flamed down
below the far horizon and long shadows raced out of
the West. A full orbed moon stood just atop the trees
that lined the eastern rim of hills. Turning reluctantly to
leave, her eyes caught sight of a dark spot in the snow.
She bent over to examine it, and a moment later
straightened up with a startled exclamation.

“Blood! It is a trail of blood. I wonder which way it

goes?”
Unable to answer this question, she decided to circle
until she could find some sign that would tell her
whether or not she was back-tracking. Satisfied at last
of the direction, she pushed on, and there in the eerie
moonlight, through the ghostly silence of an Arctic
night, she silently followed the trail of blood.

Suddenly she stopped and stood still. Just before her [149]
was a large discoloration of the snow. And, though the
snow was so wind packed that she walked on it without
snowshoes, her keen eyes detected spots where it had
been broken and scratched by some hard, heavy object.

Dropping on her knees, she began examining every

detail of the markings. When she arose she spoke with
a quiet tone of conviction:

“This is the track of a man. He has killed one of our

deer and had been carrying it on his shoulder. Blood
dropped from the still warm carcass. That explains the
trail of blood. The load has become too heavy for him.
At this spot he has laid his burden down. In places the
antlers have scratched the snow. After a time he has
gone on. But which way did he go?”

Once more she bent over. On the hard packed snow, the
sole of a skin boot makes no tracks. After a moment’s
study she again straightened up.

“There’s a long scratch, as if he had dragged the [150]

carcass to his shoulder as he started on, and an antler
had dragged for two or three feet. That would indicate
that he went the way I have been going. Question is,
shall I go farther, or shall I go for the herders with their
rifles?” She decided to go on.
The blood spots grew less and less as she advanced.
She was beginning to despair of being able to follow
much farther, when, with a startled gesture, she came
to a sudden halt.

“The purple flame!” she said in an awed whisper.

It was true. As she stared down at a little willow lined

valley, she saw the outline of a tent. From the very
center of it there appeared to burst that weird purple
light.

“Well,” she concluded, “I am at least sure that they’ve

killed one of our deer; killed several, probably. No doubt
they have been living off our herd.”

For a moment she stood there undecided; then, with [151]

reluctant feet, she turned back. It was the only wise
thing to do. She was alone and unarmed. To follow that
trail further would be dangerous and foolhardy.

But what should she do, once she had reached her own
camp? She was convinced in her own mind that the
slain creature was one of their deer; yet she could not
prove it. Should she lead her armed herders to the
stranger’s tent and demand an explanation? Oh, how
she did wish that Marian was here!

As she walked homeward she felt terribly depressed.

There was a girl in that tent of the purple flame. She
had seen her. She had hoped that sometime, in the not
too distant future, they might be friends. Such a friend
in this lonely land, especially since Marian and Attatak
were gone, would be a boon indeed. Now she felt that
such a thing could never be. It was as if a great gulf
had suddenly yawned between them.
After reaching her camp and sipping a cup of tea and [152]
munching at some hard crackers, she sat for hours
thinking things through. Her final decision was that for
the present she could do nothing. Marian might return
any day now. In such matters her judgment would be
best and Patsy did not feel warranted in starting what
might prove to be a dangerous feud.

[153]
 CHAPTER XIX
PASSING THE RAPIDS

As the raft, which had been dragged from the bank of

the river by the hermit of the mysterious lodge, swung
out into the ice strewn current, it shot directly for the
glacier’s end as if drawn by a magnet.

Taking a quick turn of the rope about a point of rock,

the aged man braced himself for the shock which must
come when the raft, with its load of sleds and other
trappings, had taken up the slack.

All too soon it came. Bracing himself as best he could,

he held his ground. The strain increased. It seemed that
the rope must snap; that the old man’s iron grip must
yield. Should the raft reach the glacier it would be lost
forever. The muscles in the man’s arms played like
bands of steel. Blood vessels stood out on his temples
like whipcords, yet he held his ground.

Ten seconds passed, twenty, thirty, then with a whirl like [154]
some wild animal yielding to its captor, the raft swung
about and shot away down stream.
Plunging forward, leaping rocks, gliding over glassy
surfaces of snow, puffing, perspiring, the old man
followed.

Now he was down; the cause seemed lost. But in a

flash he was up again, clutching at a jagged rock that
tore his hand. For a second time he stayed the mad
rush of the raft. Then he was on again.

Bobbing from reef to reef, plunging through foam,

leaping high above the torrents, the raft went careering
on. Twice it all but turned over, and but for the skill of
its master would have been crushed by great grinding
cakes of ice.

For thirty long minutes the battle lasted; minutes that

seemed hours to the aged man. Then with a sigh he
guided the raft into a safe eddy of water.

Sinking down upon a hard packed bank of snow, he lay [155]

there as if dead. For a long time he lay there, then
rising stiffly, made his way down the ledge to drag the
raft ashore and unlash the sleds. After this he drew the
sleds up the hill one at a time and set them across the
blazed trail.

“There!” he sighed. “A good night’s work done, and a

neat one. I could not have done it better twenty years
ago. ‘Grow old along with me,’” he threw back his hair
as if in defiance of raging torrents, “‘The best is yet to
be. The last of life, for which the first was made—’”

Having delivered this bit of poetical oration to the tune

of the booming rapids, he turned to pick his way back
over the uncertain trail that led to his strange abode.