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L1 - Climate Change Concepts and Issues

The document discusses the causes and impacts of climate change, emphasizing the role of human activity and greenhouse gas emissions. It highlights the unprecedented warming trends, changes in sea levels, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. The conclusion stresses the need for adaptation strategies and the importance of integrating various data for effective risk assessment in the context of climate disruptions.

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G Y P ASHEEL
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14 views19 pages

L1 - Climate Change Concepts and Issues

The document discusses the causes and impacts of climate change, emphasizing the role of human activity and greenhouse gas emissions. It highlights the unprecedented warming trends, changes in sea levels, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. The conclusion stresses the need for adaptation strategies and the importance of integrating various data for effective risk assessment in the context of climate disruptions.

Uploaded by

G Y P ASHEEL
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MOOC on ‘Earth Observation for Climate Action’

Content

Earth Observation for Climate Action

Climate Change: Concepts and Issues

M. V. Ramana
Earth and Climate Sciences Area (ECSA)
National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC)
Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)

UN/AUSTRIA post Symposium tutorial


Earth’s Climate System
Causes of Climate Change

Volcanic eruptions Changes in atmospheric


composition (greenhouse)

Climate change is
Internal components of the climate
driven by five causes
system respond by changing and
(radiative forcings)
interacting in many ways
Planet’s Temperature:

(1 - α)*(So/4) = σTe4
Atmospheric window & other physics

Tearth = 255 K (-18°C) Tearth = 288 K (+15°C)


+33°C
21C is due to H2O, 7C due to CO2, 5C from “other”
Atmosphere Composition:
1,000,000 molecules in air contain:
~ 780,000 N2 molecules
1750 to 2023
~ 210,000 O2 molecules
~ 3,900 H2O molecules +210 (Variable)
~ 280 CO2 molecules +138 (50%)
~ <1 CH4 molecules +1
___________________________________ 280 → 418 ppm

Warming ≈ +33°C More Warming !!!

Climate Change

270 → 329 ppb


719 → 1922 ppb (0.27 to 0.33ppm)
GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Enhanced
Greenhous
e Effect
Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance
“Golden era” of satellite observations 390 – 235 = 155
The Rise of CO2
2.0 ppm/yr

400 ppm = 400 parts-per-million = 0.04% by volume

1.85 ppm/yr
reference

Keeling, a researcher, started measuring atmospheric CO2 from Mauna Loa in Hawaii in 1958.
Besides the annual photosynthetic cycle, a profound trend is seen.
Contribution of Forcing agents

IPCC, 2021 report

Amount of warming caused by this forcing depends on the sensitivity of the


climate system
The sensitivity of climate depends on the strength of feedbacks (oceans, land, ice,
etc.) which themselves are not constant
How do we know humans are driving Climate Change?

Models are tested by entering real data


from the past and seeing how well the
model would have predicted past
trends

Models that incorporate only natural


factors or only anthropogenic factors
predict poorly

But models including both natural and


anthropogenic factors predict very
well

IPCC, 2018
Cumulative changes in sea level for the world’s oceans since 1880
Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Extent

NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio

Arctic planetary albedo declined by 0.04 (from 0.52 to 0.48) between


1979 and 2011. This decline is reported to increase in solar energy
input into the Arctic Ocean region of 6.4±0.9Wm-2, equivalent to an
increase of 0.21±0.03Wm-2 averaged over the globe during this
period (Pristone et al., 2014)
Warming is unprecedented

CO2 Sea Level Arctic sea ice Glaciers


concentration rise area retreat

Highest Fastest rates Lowest level Unprecedented


in at least in at least in at least in at least
2 million years 3000 years 1000 years 2000 years
ATMOSPHERE OCEAN LAND

SURFACE PHYSICS Above-Ground Biomass

Precipitation Ocean Surface Heat Flux Albedo

Pressure Sea Ice Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Fluxes

Surface Radiation Budget Sea Level Anthropogenic Water Use

Surface Wind Speed and Direction Sea State Fire

Temperature Sea Surface Salinity Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active


Water Vapour Sea Surface Temperature Radiation (FAPAR)

UPPER-ATMOSPHERE Subsurface Currents Glaciers

Earth Radiation Budget Subsurface Salinity Groundwater

Lightning Subsurface Temperature Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves

Temperature Surface Currents Lakes

Water Vapour Surface Stress Land Cover

Wind Speed and Direction BIOGEOCHEMISTRY Land Surface Temperature

COMPOSITION Inorganic Carbon Latent and Sensible Heat Fluxes

Aerosols Properties Nitrous Oxide Leaf Area Index

Carbon Dioxide, Methane and other Nutrients Permafrost


Greenhouse Gases Ocean Colour River Discharge

Cloud Properties Oxygen Snow

Ozone Transient Tracers


Soil Carbon
BIOLOGY/ECOSYSTEMS
15
Precursors Marine Habitat Properties
Soil Moisture
Plankton
NICES web portal: http://bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in/data/download/index.php

Terrestrial Products Ocean Products Atmospheric Products


(30) (25) (6)

Model Derived Total 66 bio/geophysical products


Products (9) 13 ECVs
Current and Future Climate Crisis

Climate change morphed into Climate Disruptions

Extreme heat Heavy rainfall Drought Fire weather Ocean

More frequent More frequent Increase in some More frequent Warming


More intense More intense regions Acidifying
Losing oxygen

IPCC 2021 & WMO 2021


 Hot temperature extremes frequency increased 180%
 Heavy Precipitation frequency increased 30%
 Agriculture & ecological droughts in drying regions increased 70%
 Disaster number increased by 400% from 1970s to the current decade

A collection of peer-reviewed papers in BAMS in 2020


Limiting Climate Change

Renewables
Geoengineering
Conclusion nrsc

 The statistics of many types of extreme events have already shifted in


recent decades
 As long as greenhouse gas concentrations rise, we expect to see an
acceleration of many of these changes in extreme event statistics
 The further we push the climate system, the greater the potential for
surprises

Other Considerations / Future Research


 Can climate system be ‘stress-tested’ (compound extreme events)

 Adaptation strategies in the context of rare extremes (Detection and


attribution is very important)

 Integration of different types of information in risk assessment (Global


dimensions)
Thank you

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