Climate Change Impacts On Pakistan
Climate Change Impacts On Pakistan
As the climate changes, the number of people affected by flooding in Pakistan is projected to
increase, with a likely increase of around 5 million people exposed to extreme river floods by
2035–2044, and a potential increase of around 1 million annually exposed to coastal flooding
by 2070–2100 .
Over the past 50 years, natural hazards in South and Southwest Asia have affected over 3bn
people and killed more than one million. The sub-region accounts for 44pc of all fatalities
from disasters and 50pc of the people affected in the Asia-Pacific region.
Overall, Pakistan contributes less than 1% to global GHG emissions, but it is one of
the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change and natural
disasters . Heightened vulnerabilities to disaster risks are caused due to the
expanding population, urbanization, changing land use practices, developmental
activities in high-risk zones, and environmental degradation.
Causes
Climate change in Pakistan, as in other parts of the world, is driven by a combination of global
and local factors. Here are the key reasons contributing to climate change in Pakistan:
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions: The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural
gas) for energy and transportation is the largest source of CO2 emissions worldwide.
While Pakistan's contribution to global CO2 emissions is relatively small (less than 1%),
it is significantly affected by emissions from larger industrialized nations.
Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emissions: Agriculture, livestock, and
waste management are major sources of methane and nitrous oxide emissions. These
gases have a higher global warming potential than CO2.
Deforestation: Pakistan has a low forest cover, and ongoing deforestation due to logging,
agriculture expansion, and urban development exacerbates carbon emissions and reduces
carbon sequestration.
Land Degradation: Overgrazing, improper agricultural practices, and soil erosion lead
to land degradation, which affects carbon storage in soil and vegetation.
4. Energy Sector
Fossil Fuel Dependency: Pakistan relies heavily on fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural
gas) for energy production. This reliance contributes significantly to national greenhouse
gas emissions.
Inefficient Energy Use: Energy inefficiency in industrial, residential, and transportation
sectors leads to higher emissions per unit of energy consumed.
5. Agriculture Practices
Rice Cultivation: Paddy fields emit significant amounts of methane due to anaerobic
conditions during flooding.
Livestock Farming: Enteric fermentation in ruminants (cows, goats, sheep) produces
methane, while manure management contributes to both methane and nitrous oxide
emissions.
Fertilizer Use: The use of synthetic fertilizers in agriculture leads to nitrous oxide
emissions due to microbial processes in the soil.
6. Waste Management
7. Transportation
Vehicle Emissions: The growing number of vehicles, coupled with outdated and
inefficient engines, contributes to increased emissions of CO2 and other pollutants.
Lack of Public Transport: Limited public transport options lead to higher reliance on
private vehicles, increasing overall emissions.
Transboundary Pollution: Pakistan shares borders with India, China, and other
countries that are major emitters of greenhouse gases. Transboundary pollution
contributes to regional climate impacts.
Economic Development: Economic pressures and development goals often prioritize
short-term gains over long-term sustainability, leading to policies and practices that
exacerbate climate change.
IMPACTS
limate change has profound and multifaceted impacts on Pakistan, affecting its environment,
economy, and society. Here are some key impacts:
Environmental Impacts
1. Glacial Melt:
o The Himalayan, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges in Pakistan are
experiencing accelerated glacial melt, leading to changes in river flows and an
increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
o Pakistan has over 7,000 glaciers, many of which are retreating due to rising
temperatures. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, including Pakistan, has lost
about 15% of its ice in the past few decades.
2. Temperature Rise:
o Pakistan has experienced a significant increase in average temperatures, leading
to more frequent and intense heatwaves, especially in urban areas like Karachi.
o ACCORDING TO ASIAN DEVELEPMENT BANK ,during the past century, an
annual mean temperature increase of around 0.63°C has been observed in the
country.
3. Extreme Weather Events:
o Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as floods,
droughts, cyclones, and heatwaves.
o The 2010 floods affected 20 million people, causing massive displacement,
destruction of infrastructure, and economic losses estimated at $10 billion.
o The 2015 heatwave in Karachi resulted in over 1,200 deaths and highlighted the
vulnerability of urban populations to extreme heat events.
o According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), around
33 million people—that is, one in seven— have been affected by the floods,
including nearly 8 million people displaced.
o And have taken the lives of more than 1,700 people.
o Persistent drought conditions in regions like Tharparkar have led to severe food
and water shortages, affecting the livelihoods of local communities.
o According to the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment of the 2022 floods, total
damages are estimated to exceed USD 14.9 billion, total economic losses are
expected to reach about USD 15.2 billion, and estimated needs for rehabilitation
and reconstruction in a resilient way are at least USD 16.3 billion.
o IPPC REPORT 2022 ; The report found that the average mortality from
floods, storms and droughts is 9 times higher in Pakistan and other highly
vulnerable countries as compared to European countries.
4. Sea-Level Rise:
o Rising sea levels are causing coastal erosion and salinization of groundwater in
coastal areas, particularly affecting the Sindh and Balochistan provinces.
o sea level along the Karachi coast has risen by approximately 1.1mm per year.
o Effects; land loss , habitat destruction ,floods , infrastructure loss , displacement
Economic Impacts
1.Agriculture:
Social Impacts
1. Health:
o Rising temperatures and extreme weather events are increasing the incidence of
heat-related illnesses, waterborne diseases, and respiratory problems due to air
pollution.
2. Displacement:
o Climate-induced displacement is becoming more common, with people moving
from rural to urban areas due to floods, droughts, and other environmental
stresses. This migration puts additional pressure on urban infrastructure and
services.
3. Livelihoods:
o The livelihoods of people dependent on agriculture, fishing, and livestock are at
risk due to climate change impacts, leading to increased poverty and economic
instability.
Ecological Impacts
1. Biodiversity:
o Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are affecting ecosystems and
biodiversity. Species migration and loss of habitat are becoming more common,
threatening flora and fauna.
o In 2017, a German think tank ranked Pakistan as the seventh most vulnerable
country to climate change in the world. In addition, according to the think tank’s
estimate, between 1997 and 2016, Pakistan lost an average of 523.1 lives per
year due to extreme environmental and weather conditions.
o The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services reported
in its global assessment that in the last half century, more than 85 per cent of
wetlands have been lost, while 75pc land and 66pc oceans have been significantly
altered.
o The World Wide Fund for Nature's Living Planet Report 2022 documents
a 69% average loss in the abundance of mammal, bird, reptile, fish and amphibian
species since 1970.
2. Forests:
o Forests are under threat from changing climate conditions, with increased risk of
forest fires and pest infestations.
o Pakistan, a semi-arid country, possesses only 5 percent of its area as forests, and
that figure is rapidly declining. Increasing rates of consumption of fuel wood and
timber as well as the requirement for land for domestic livestock are the principal
causes of this depletion.
1. Resource Conflicts:
o Scarcity of water and other natural resources can lead to conflicts, both within the
country and with neighboring countries like India over shared water resources.
2. Policy and Governance:
o The government is increasingly focusing on developing and implementing climate
policies and strategies, such as the National Climate Change Policy and the
Climate Change Act.
1. Geopolitical Tensions:
o Climate change can exacerbate geopolitical tensions, particularly over water
resources shared with neighboring countries. It also necessitates regional
cooperation on climate adaptation and disaster management.
2. International Aid and Cooperation:
o Pakistan seeks international support and funding for climate adaptation and
mitigation efforts. Participation in global climate agreements, such as the Paris
Agreement, shapes its international relations and diplomatic efforts.
The annual expected damage from riverine floods by 2050 is projected to surge
by 47 percent (RCP 4.5) and 49 percent (RCP 8.5), respectively.
▪ Climate change will likely severely impact the agriculture sector, increasing food
production and access pressure. For example, by 2050, the annual mean wheat
yield will decline by 1 percent (RCP 4.5) and 2.5 percent (RCP 8.5), respectively. ▪
Sea-level rise will contribute to the further salinization of soils and coastal
erosion, and inundation will harm fisheries and aquaculture. ▪
Air and water pollution will aggravate human health, especially those living in
vulnerable areas.
Solutions
Addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change in Pakistan requires a
comprehensive and coordinated approach. Here are some solutions across various sectors:
2. Agricultural Adaptation
Climate-Resilient Crops: Develop and promote the use of drought-resistant and heat-
tolerant crop varieties to withstand changing climatic conditions.
Sustainable Practices: Encourage sustainable farming practices, such as crop rotation,
conservation tillage, and organic farming, to improve soil health and resilience.
Agroforestry: Integrate trees and shrubs into agricultural landscapes to enhance
biodiversity, improve soil fertility, and provide additional sources of income.
Farmer Training: Provide training and resources to farmers on climate-smart agriculture
techniques and technologies.
Early Warning Systems: Enhance and expand early warning systems for extreme
weather events, such as floods, heatwaves, and cyclones, to enable timely responses.
Disaster Preparedness: Strengthen disaster preparedness and response capacities at the
community and national levels, including the development of emergency plans and
infrastructure.
Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, such as
flood defenses, stormwater drainage systems, and resilient building designs.
Heat Action Plans: Develop and implement heat action plans in urban areas to protect
vulnerable populations from extreme heat, including cooling centers and public
awareness campaigns.
Disease Surveillance: Strengthen disease surveillance systems to monitor and respond to
climate-sensitive health issues, such as waterborne diseases and vector-borne illnesses.
Healthcare Infrastructure: Improve healthcare infrastructure and services to cope with
the increased health burdens associated with climate change.
5. Economic Diversification
Renewable Energy: Invest in renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and
hydropower, to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enhance energy security.
Green Jobs: Promote green job creation in sectors like renewable energy, sustainable
agriculture, and environmental conservation to boost economic resilience.
“From an investment perspective, companies such as Fauji
Fertilizer, Engro and Millat Tractor need to invest
aggressively in new areas.” It said investment in the
agriculture sector had been limited to fertilisers and tractors
so far but now it needed to be modernised and given access to
formal capital.
7. Environmental Conservation
Protected Areas: Expand and effectively manage protected areas to conserve critical
ecosystems and wildlife habitats. As of present, there are around 400 protected areas in
Pakistan that are recognized by IUCN. The total protected land area represents 13% of
Pakistan's landmass as of 2020, The Government of Pakistan plans to increase it to at
least 15% by 2023.[1] As a signatory of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity,
Pakistan is committed to expanding its protected areas to encompass 17% of its total
territory by the year 2030.
Community-Based Conservation: Engage local communities in conservation efforts to
ensure sustainable use of natural resources and biodiversity protection.
Climate Policy Integration: Integrate climate considerations into national and local
development policies and plans to ensure a coordinated approach to climate adaptation
and mitigation.
Environmental protection and ecology are included in the parallel legislative list of
Pakistan’s 1973 constitution. The Environment Protection Ordinance in 1983 is a
benchmark in Pakistan’s legislation and represents official recognition of a holistic
approach to environmental issues (Mumtaz, 1989).
9. International Cooperation
“What is necessary at present is to engage local communities (both urban and rural) to
understand both climate change and biodiversity loss to create solutions using citizen and
civic movements,” says F. Fasih. Fasih is a program manager for sustainable
development at the Center of Excellence in Responsible Business (CERB) and follows up
on the private sector’s track record in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in
Pakistan.
Climate Education: Integrate climate change education into school curricula to build
awareness and capacity among the younger generation. Education is also critical in
shaping people’s attitudes towards the issue. The more educated an individual is, the
more likely he/she is concerned about climate change’s causes and consequences,
viewing it as a significant threat to the planet.
A World Bank report has pointed out that eight in 10 people in Pakistan are concerned
about impacts of climate change, with female and educated people being more concerned.
Implementing these solutions requires a collaborative effort from government, civil society, the
private sector, and international partners. By adopting a holistic and inclusive approach, Pakistan
can enhance its resilience to climate change and ensure sustainable development for its people.