Working Capital Management

Tax Shield Education Centre Working Capital management Advanced Concepts and Techniques Working capital = Current assets
- Current liabilities
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Current assets includes: 1. Stock of raw material 2. Stock of work-in-progress 3. Stock of finished goods 4. Sundry debtors and bills receivables. 5. Prepaid expenses 6. Accrued incomes 7. Cash at bank. Current liabilities includes: 1. Creditors for materials 2. Creditors for wages and other expenses 3. Bills payable 4. Bank overdraft etc. So in the study of working capital management the following items or discussions are included. 1) Requirement of working capital 2) Calculation of operating cycle / working capital cycle. 3) Management of stock 4) of debtors 5) of cash 6) of creditors. Working capital requirement : Steps :
1.Calculate production/ sell for a particular period e.g. weekly or monthly as the case may be . 2. Peeper a cost sheet following a particular activity or capacity level . If there is a change in the capacity level , variable cost per unit does not change but fixed cost per unit will change . 3. Value of current assets or current liability = Cost per item included in the item * credit period * production per time period . 4. Prepare a formal statement of working capital . NOTE: Following the Tandon & Chore Committee recommendation in India the entrepreneur or the organization has to bring 25% of the requirements of current assets out of long term financing (i.e. capital or reserve or debenture ) . The difference of working capital then will be financed by the bank . This is known as MPBF ( Maximum Permissible Bank Financing ) . A variety advanced concepts and techniques have been suggested for managing different facts of the working capital. These have emanated in different disciplines like economics, operations research, production management, statistics, and computer sciences. A comprehensive exposition of these concepts and techniques is beyond the scope of this book (as well as the competence of the author). However, what is attempted here is a discussion of some selected topics which are relative more important from the practical point of view. A topics included for discussion in this chapter are : Working capital leverage Analysis of working capital components Cash budget simulation Cash management models Discriminant analysis and customer classification Advances in inventory management
WORKING CAPITAL LEVERAGE
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Working capital leverage reflects the sensitivity of return on investment (earning power) to changes in the level of current assets. To express the formula for working capital leverage we will use the following symbols : CA CA FA TA EBIT ROI = = = = = = value of current assets (gross working capital) change in the level of current assets value of net assets value of total assets (TA = CA + FA) earnings before interest and taxes return on investment defined as EBIT / TA
Working capital leverage (WCL) is equal to : Percentage change in ROI Percentage change in CA Let us consider the case where current assets reduce by CA without in any way impairing the earnings capacity of the firm. The percentage increase in ROI in this case is equal to : EBIT . - EBIT TA - CA TA . EBIT TA This expression, on simplification, becomes : CA . TA - CA The percentage decrease in current assets is simply : CA / CA Hence, WCL = = CA . TA - CA CA CA
CA . TA - CA If there is an increase in current assets, rather than a decrease, WCL = CA . TA + CA
Illustration The following information is available for two companies, Box Limited and Cox Limited. Box Limited Cox Limited Current Assets (CA) Net Fixed Assets (FA) Total Assets (TA) Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) ROI Rs.150 mln Rs. 50 mln Rs.200 mln Rs. 30 mln 15% Rs. 50 mln Rs.150 mln Rs.200 mln Rs. 30 mln 15%
The working capital leverage, for a 20 per cent reduction in current assets, is equal to : WCL = CA . TA 0.2 CA
For the two companies, Box Limited and Cox Limited, the WCL values are as follows :
Tax Shield Education Centre ECL (Box Limited) = ECL (Box Limited) = 150 . = 0.88 200 30 50 . = 0.26 200 10
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Looking at the WCL values it is evident that the sensitivity of ROI to changes in the level of CA is far greater for Box Limited that for Cox Limited. ANALYSIS OF WORKING CAPITAL COMPONENTS In order to understand the length of time for which resources are committed to various components of working capital, operating cycle analysis may be done. An extension of this analysis which may be referred as the weighted operating cycle analysis, may be done to the reflect the magnitudes of resources commitments. This section discusses these two kinds of analysis with illustrations. Operating Cycle Analysis The operating cycle of a firm begins with the acquisition of raw materials and ends with the collection of receivables. There are four aspects of the operating cycle which involve commitment of resources : raw material stage; work-in-process stage; finished goods stage; and accounts receivable stage. There is one aspect of the operating cycle which provides resources : accounts payable stage (this is the period for which credit is provided by the suppliers of raw materials.) The duration of the operating cycle may be defined as Doc = Drm + Dwip + Dfg + Dar Dap Where Doc Drm Dwip Dfg Dar Dap = = = = = = duration of the operating cycle duration of the raw materials and stores stage duration of the work-in-process stage duration of the finished goods stage duration of the accounts receivable stage duration of the accounts payable stage.
A word about the components of the operating cycle is in order. Duration of the Raw Materials and Stores Stage : This represents the number of days for which raw materials and stores remain in inventory before they are issued for production. It may be calculated as : Drm = Average stock of raw materials and stores . Average raw materials and stores consumed per day This represents the number of days required in the work-in-
Duration of the Work-in-Process Stage : progress stage. It may be measured as : Dwip =
Average work-in-progress inventory . Average work-in-progress value of raw materials committed per day
Duration of the Finished Goods Stage : This reflects the number of days for which finished goods remain in inventory before they are sold. It may be calculated as : Dfg = Average finished goods inventory . Average cost of goods sold per day
Duration of the accounts Receivable Stage : This denotes the number of days required to collect the accounts receivable. It may be measured as : Dar = Average accounts receivable Average sales per day Duration of the Accounts Payable stage : This represents the number of days for which the suppliers of raw materials offer credit. It may be calculated as :
Tax Shield Education Centre Dap = Average accounts payable . Average credit purchases per day
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Operating Cycle : An Illustration The calculation of operating cycle may be illustrated with the help of an example. The following information is available for Zenith Limited : Average stock of raw materials and stores Average work-in-progress inventory Average finished goods inventory Average accounts receivable Average accounts payable Average raw materials and stores consumed per day Average work-in-progress value of raw materials committed per day Average cost of goods sold per day Average sales per day : : : : : : : : : 200 300 180 300 180 10 12.5 18 20
On the basis of the above information, the durations of the various components of the operating cycle are calculated as follows : Duration of raw materials and stores stage (Drm) = Duration of work-in-process stage (Dwip) Duration of finished goods stage (Dfg) Duration of accounts receivable stage (Dar) Duration of accounts payable stage (Dap) 200 = 20 days 10
= 300 = 24 days 12.5 = 180 = 10 days 18 = 300 = 15 days 20 = 180 = 18 days 10
The duration of the operating cycle (Doc) is : Doc = Drm + Dwip + Dfg + Dar Dap = 20 + 24 + 10 + 15 18 = 51 days Weighted Operating Cycle Analysis The operating cycle analysis focuses only on the time dimension of investment. It shows the durations of various components of the operating cycle. This analysis can be extended to take into account differential magnitudes of investment at different stages of the operating cycle. Such extended analysis leads to the calculation of what may be referred to as the weighted operating cycle which is more useful in working capital analysis. The procedure for calculating the weighted operating cycle consists of the following steps : Step 1 Calculate the durations of various stages of the operating cycle The durations of various stages, namely, Drm Dwip Dfg Dar Dap (duration of the raw materials and stores stage) (duration of the work-in-process stage) (duration of the finished goods stage) (duration of the accounts receivable stage) (duration of the accounts payable stage)
may be calculated using the formula described in the previous section.
Tax Shield Education Centre Step 2 Determine the weights for various stages of the operating cycle
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The weights applicable to various stages of the operating cycle reflect the proportions of the costs incurred up to that stage in relation to the selling price of the product. Hence, the weights are : Stage Raw materials and stores stage Wm = Weight Raw materials and stores cost per unit Sales price per unit Raw materials and stores cost per unit + 0.5 processing cost per unit Sales price per unit Cost of goods sold per unit Sales price per unit Sales price per unit Sales price per unit Raw materials and stores cost per unit Sales price per unit
Work-in-process stage Finished goods stage Accounts receivable stage Accounts payable stage
Wwip Wfg War Wap
= = = =
Pictorially, the durations and weights corresponding to different stages are shown below Step 3 Calculate the weighted operating cycle The duration of the weighted operating cycle is equal to : Dwoc = Wrm Drm + Wwtp Dwtp + Wfg Dfg + War Dar Wap Dap Weighted Operating Cycle : An Illustration To illustrate the calculation of the weighted operating cycle let us consider the following information
Wrm
Drm
Wwip
Wfg
Dfg
War = 1
Dm
Dwip
Wap = Wrm
Dap Pictorial Representation of Durations and Weights Corresponding to Different Stages of the Operating Cycle
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For Sterling Limited. The duration of the various components of the operating cycle of Sterling Limited are as follows. Drm Dwtp Dfg Dar Dap = = = = = 30 days 20 days 10 days 30 days 20 days
The cost / price structure for Sterling Limited is as follows : Raw material and stores cost per unit Processing cost per unit Selling, administration, and financial costs per unit Sales price : : : : Rs.50 Rs.30 Rs.10 Rs.100
Given the cost / price structure, the weights applicable to the different stages of the operating cycle are : Wrm = Raw materials and stores cost per unit = 50 . = 0.50 Sales price per unit 100 Raw materials and stores 0.5 Processing cost cost per unit + per unit = Sales price per unit Cost of goods sold per unit = 90 . = 0.90 Sales price per unit 100 Sales price per unit = 100 = 1.00 Sales price per unit 100 Raw materials and stores cost per unit = 50 . = 0.50 Sales price per unit 100 50 + 15 - = 0.65 100
Wip =
Wjg = War = Wap =
Given the durations of various components of operating cycle and the weights associated with them, the duration of the weighted operating cycle is shown below : Dwoc = Wrm Drm + Wwtp Dwit + Wfg Dfg + War Dar Wap Dap = 0.50 x 30 + 0.65 x 20 + 0.90 x 10 + 1.00 x 30 0.50 x 20 = 57 days Application of Weighted Operating Cycle The weighted operating cycle concept has a very useful and direct application : It can be used for estimating the working capital requirement of the firm as follows : Sales per day x Weighted operating cycle + Cash balance requirement To illustrate, consider the following data for Olympus Limited Sales per day = Rs.3,5 million Cash balance requirement = Rs.12 ml. Weighted operating cycle = 62 days The working capital requirement for Olympus Limited will be : Rs.3.5 ml (62) + Rs. 12 ml = Rs.229 ml. Different methods of calculating the borrowing limit Working capital requirement =
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Three different methods of calculating the borrowing limit to finance the working capital requirements : The Group views the role of banker only to supplement the borrowers resources in carrying a reasonable level of current assets in relation to his production requirements. It proposed three progressive alternatives by which the banks may finance the working capital requirements of their industrial borrowers. At first stage the current assets may be worked out as per norms and the current liabilities (excepting bank borrowing) may be deducted therefrom. This amount would represent the working capital gap, 25% of which must be financed by the borrowers out of long term funds. The maximum permissible bank borrowings would, therefore, be only 75% of the working capital requirements calculated as per the norms laid down regarding inventories and receivables. The Committee suggests, that as a first step, the banks may adopt this method of sanctioning advances. In cases where the banks have already sanctioned advances higher than the requirements as calculated above, the excess should be converted into a term loan to be phased out gradually. Thus the Committee does not support that the banks should finance excessive inventory build up by industrial enterprise. In the second alternative, the borrower will have to provide a minimum of 25% of total current assets from term funds (as against his providing 25% of working capital gap from long term funds in the first alternative) In the third and the ideal method of calculating the borrowing limits, the group makes a distinction between core current assets and the other current assets. Accordingly, the total current assets need to be divided into these two categories. The borrower should finance the entire core current assets plus a minimum of 25% of the other current assets. The group feels that the classification of current assets and current liabilities be as per the accepted approach of the bankers. Walkers Four- Part Theory Working capital leverage may be defined as the variability in return on capital employed due to variability in working capital current assets). That is, the degree of working leverage (L) may be measured as follows : L = Percentage increase in return on capital employed Percentage decrease in working capital
The higher the degree of leverage is the risk and vice versa. But, at the same, time, it increases the possibility of higher rate of return on capital employed (ROCE). Illustration Firm A Current Assets (Rs.) Fixed Assets (net) Rs. Capital Employed (Rs.) Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) (Rs.) ROCE (%) The derivation of working capital leverage may be shown as follows : Let W = amount of working capital (current assets) F = amount of fixed assets (net) W + F = C = amount of capital employed E = earnings before interest and taxes E/C = return on capital employed (ROCE) L = degree of working capital leverage Let working capital level be reduced by an amount, W. Then the percentage decrease in working capital will be = W. W After reduction in the amount of working capital by W, the return will increase to the level of E . 18,000 2,000 20,000 4,000 20 Firm B 2,000 18,000 20,000 4,000 20
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Therefore, the percentage increase in ROCE will be : E . - E = W . C- W C C- W Thus, L = W . C- W = W . x W. = W . W C- W W C- W W (1)
The value of leverage may be < 1. That is, when L 1, increase in rate of return will be proportionate to > decrease in working capital; when L > 1, the benefit will be more than proportionate and when L < 1, the benefit will be less than proportionate to decrease in working capital. Industries which are more responsive to working capital management (L > 1) will, therefore, get better results than others (when L 1). So, the important question is to find the condition under which L > 1. This can easily be deducted from equation (1) as follows : Let the reduction in working capital (current assets) be a fraction of K of its original level W. Then W = KW Further, let the ratio of net fixed assets to working capital (current assets) F / W, be r. Then F . = r W Or, F = rW We have L = Or, L = = W . C- W W . = W . W+F- W W = eW KW W = 1 W (1 + r K) 1+rK (2) (Equation 1)
Thus, L > 1 when (1 + r K) < 1. That is, when K > r, (1 + r K) is < 1, and consequently, L > 1. Example Praga Tools Ltd. has investigated the profitability of its assets and the cost of its funds. The results indicate : (i) Current assets earn 6% (ii) Fixed assets earn 13%
(iii) Current liabilities cost 3% (iv) Average cost of long term funds 10%. The present Average cost of long term fund is as follows : Liabilities Current Liabilities Rs. 1,000,000 Assets Current Assets Rs. 2,00,000
Tax Shield Education Centre Long term funds (ownership & borrowed) Fixed Assets 7,00,000 8,00,000
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The company is now contemplating lowering its net working capital to Rs.70,000 by (a) either shifting Rs.30,000 of current assets into fixed assets or (b) shifting Rs.30,000 of its long term funds into current liabilities. In your opinion which one of these two alternatives would be more desirable for the company and why ? RULES FOR DEBTORS MANAGENT
1.
2.
Avarage age of debtors = Debtors at the end average sales per day Coputation of debt policy a. Sales under each policy. b. P/V ratio, ignore fixed costs unless it is relevant. Or apply total cost approach c. Contribution for each policy ( a x b ) d. Incremental contribution on the basis of present one. e. Amount of debtors in each policy. f. Incremental debtors on the basis of present. g. Variable costs in debtors h. Interest on variable capital ( i.e. variable costs) i. Bad-debts for each policy j. Incremental bad-debts on the basis of present k. Net income = d - ( h + j )
Comment : Follow that policy where net income is highest . in case of highly competitive market ( say color T.V. ) take that policy where sales is maximum with min net income ( not negative ) Stock Management Objective of ABC Analysis The main object of this analysis is to develop policy guidelines for selective control. That is, after the analysis has been done, the following policy guidelines can be established in respect of each of the classified categories of inventories. A Items (High Value) 1 Very low safety stocks. (Because the cost of placing and follow up orders are relatively low in comparison with costs of carrying excess inventories.) or B Items (Moderate Value) Low Safety Stocks. C Items (Low Value) High Safety Stocks.
2. Frequently ordering weekly deliveries 3. Weekly control reports
Less frequent ordering. (Say, once in three months.) Monthly control reports. Periodic follow-up. Moderate value analysis Both central and decentralised purchasing
Ordering in bulk, (Say, once in six months.) Quarterly control reports. Follow-up and expediting in exceptional cases Minimum value analysis. Decentralised purchasing.
4. Maximum follow-up and expending. 5. Rigorous value analysis. 6. Centralised Purchasing and storage.
Tax Shield Education Centre 7. Maximum efforts to reduce lead time. 8. Fortnightly or monthly control over surplus and obsolete items. 9. Very strict control (by top level management) Moderate efforts. Quarterly review. Minimum clerical efforts Annual review.
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Moderate control (by middle level management).
Less control (by lower level management)
Rules regarding E.O.Q (1) EOQ=
2 Annual order Ordering Cost/ Order Carrying cost per unit p.a.
Total ordering & carrying cost. = 2 Annual consumption Order cost per order carrying cost p.u. / P.a. (ii) Non-instantaneous supply or EOQ model with gradual supply. EOQ= 2 Annual demand ordering cost / order Carrying Cost p.u. [ 1 - ( Usage rate Rate of receipt ) ]
(iii)
Back-order inventory model EOQ = 2 Annual demand ordering cost per order Annual Carrying Cost p.u. Cost of holding + Cost of back order Cost of back order.
(iv) (v)
EOQ model with qty discount apply Principle of method (i) in a tabular form. EOQ under other constraint say Space, Capital availability , space availability etc. EOQ= 2 annual demand Ordering cost / order Carrying cost p.u. + 2k Where K = constant factor p.u. = LaGranges co-fficient
(vi)
EOQ under inflation EOQ =
2 Annual demand Ordering Cost / order [ 1+ (i /2 ) ] Purchase price per unit (Carrying rate 1)
(vii)
Where i inflation rate. Risk Model Where service level = 1 risk. EOQ: Apply the principle of normal distribution Z= x - . Where Z . 6 = x - x = the desived level of stock = the demand during load time. = S.D. during of lead-time consumption. Note: Remember the period that S.D. of final results con not be obtained through S.D. of its factor, father it is the root of the product of the variances of the factor. Where
(i) (ii) (iii)
Under this model different EOQ level arises as follows:Where usage rate is variable but lead-time is fixed. Lead-time is variable but usage rate is fixed. Both are variable.
Tax Shield Education Centre (viii) (ix) EOQ model under decision theory is principal of pay-off matrix. EOQ model under probability Probability of stock = . Cost of under stocking . Cost of under stocking + cost of over stocking
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(a)
(b)
Cash management Baumol Model William Baumol proposed a model which applies the economic order quantity (EOQ) concept commonly used in inventory management, to determine the cash conversion size (which in turn influences the average cash holding of the firm). The purpose of such an analysis is to balance the income foregone when the firm holds cash balances (rather than invests in marketable securities) against the transaction costs incurred when marketable securities are converted into cash. To illustrate the nature of this analysis, let us consider the situation of Zeta Limited. Zeta requires Rs.1.5 million in cash for meeting its transaction needs (represented by the symbol T) over the next three months, its planning period for liquidity decisions. This amount is available with Zeta in the form of marketable securities. To meet the projected cash needs, Zeta can sell its marketable securities in any of the five lot sizes : 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000 and 500,000. These cash conversion sizes, C, are shown in line 1 of table 26.4
Establishing the Optimal Cash Conversion Size

1. Cash conversion size (the amount of) marketable securities that will be converted (into cash) Number of conversions during the planning period of three months (15,00,000 line 1) Average cash balance (line 1 2) Interest income foregone (line 3 x .04) Cost of cash conversion (Rs.500 x line 2) Total cost of ordering and holding cash (line 4 + line 5) Rs.100,000 2,00,000 3,00,000 4,00,000 5,00,000
2.
15.00
7.50
5.00
3.75
3.00
3. 4. 5. 6.
Rs.50,000 Rs.2,000 Rs.7,500
1,00,000 4,000 3,750
1,50,000 6,000 2,500
2,00,000 8,000 1,875
2,50,000 10,000 1,500
Rs.9,500
7,750
8,500
9,875
11,500
The number of times the marketable securities will be converted into cash is simply T/C. The value of T/C, given T = Rs.1,500,000 and C varying in the range Rs.100,000 Rs.500,000, is shown in line 2 of table 26.4 The cash payments are made evenly over the three months planning period. This means that the cash balance of the firm behaves in the saw tooth manner as shown in Fig 26.2. hence the
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average balance is simply C/2. The average cash balances corresponding to the different cash conversion sizes are shown in line 3 of table 26.4.
C
Cash Balance
C/2
Cash Balances According to the Baumol Model Zeta can earn 16 per cent annual yield on its marketable securities. This implies that the interest rate for the three months planning period is 4 per cent (represented by the symbol I). Since the average cash balance holding is C/2, the interest income foregone is C/2 x 0.04. . The conversion of market securities into cash entails a fixed cost (represented by the symbol b) of Rs.500 per transaction. b is independent of the size of the cash conversion. The total conversion costs during the planning period will be equal to : number of cash orders x cost per transaction. This is shown in line 5 of Table 26.4. In general, the total conversion cost is (T/C)b. The total cost of ordering and holding, TC, is shown in line in graph .
Looking at the total costs (line 6 of Table 26.4), we find that it is minimised when C, the conversion order, is Rs.200,000. This means that at the beginning of the planning period Zeta should convert only Rs.200,000 of its marketable securities into cash. The remaining amount should be converted into cash in lots of Rs.200,000 as dictated by the disbursal needs of the firm. The foregoing analysis may be represented in the form of a general model employing the following symbols developed in our illustration. C I T TC = = = = amount of market securities converted into cash per order interest rate earned per planning period on investment in marketable securities projected cash requirements during the planning period sum of conversion and holding costs
The total cost (TC) can be expressed as : TC = I (C/2) Interest income foregone + b (T/C) Conversion costs (26.8)
The value of c which minimises TC can be found from the following equation : C = 2bT I
Applying Eq. (26.9) to the situation of Zeta Limited we get : C = 2 x 500 x 1.500,000 = Rs.193,600
Tax Shield Education Centre This solution is shown graphically in Fig. 26.3 Miller and Orr Model
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Expanding on the Baumol model, Miller and Orr consider a stochastic generating process for periodic changes in cash balance. As against the completely deterministic assumptions of the Baumol model, Miller and Orr assume that the changes in cash balance over a given period are Baumol model, Miller and Orr assume that the changes in cash balance over a given period are random, in size as well as direction, as shown in Fig. 26.4. As the number of periods increases, the cash balance changes form a normal distribution. Given this behaviour of cash balance changes, Miller and Orr model seeks to answer the following questions : When should transfers be effected between marketable securities and cash ? What should be the magnitude of these transfers ?
According to the Miller and Orr model, upward changes in cash balance are allowed till the cash balance reaches an upper control limit (UL), as shown in Fig. 26.5. As this level is attained the cash balance is reduced to a return point (RP) by investing UL RP in marketable securities. On the other hand, downward changes are permitted only till the cash balance touches a lower control limit (LL), as shown in Fig. 26.5. Once this level is reached, enough marketable securities are disposed to restore the cash balance to its return point (RP).
Graphic Solution to the Baumol Model
Changes in Cash Balance
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Changes in Cash Balance with managerial Intervention as per Miller and Orr Model While the value of the lower control level (LL) is set by the management based on what it considers to be the minimum below which the cash balance should not fall, the values of RP and UL have been derived by Miller and Orr with a view to minimising the total ordering and holding costs. The following are the results of the analysis : RP =
3
3b 2 + LL 4 I
UL = 3RP 2LL Where RP b I 2 LL UL Illustration = = = = = = return point fixed cost per order for converting marketable securities into cash daily interest rate earned on marketable securities variance of daily changes in the expected cash balance the lower control limit the upper control limit Beta Limited provides the following information about its liquidity The annual yield available on marketable securities is 12 per cent. On a daily basis the yield, I, using a 360-days year, works out to : .12 . = .00033 or = 0.0333 per cent 360 The fixed cost of effecting a marketable securities transaction, b, is Rs.160. The standard deviation, , of the change in daily cash balance is Rs.5,000. The management of beta would like to maintain a minimum cash balance of Rs.50,000.
Given the above information, the return point and the upper control limit for Beta as per Miller and Orr model, are as follows : RP =
3
3 (1600) (5000)2 + 50,000 = 94,962.5 4 x 0.00033
UL = 3 x RP 2 x 50,0000 = 184,887.5 The solutions to this example are shown graphically in Fig.26.6. If the cash balance reaches the upper control limit of Rs.184,867.5, the finance manager should buy marketable securities for Rs.89,925. On the other hand, if the cash balance touches the lower control limit of Rs.50,000, the finance manager should sell marketable securities to restore that cash balance to the return point level of Rs.94,962.5. as long as the cash balance lies between the upper control limit and the lower taken. Such a course of action will minimise the sum of transaction costs and interest income foregone.
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Application of Miller and Orr Model to Beta limited Probability of Cash Insolvency In assessing the debt capacity of a firm the key question is whether the probability of cash insolvency associated with a certain level of debt is accepted to the management and not so much whether a particular coverage norm is satisfied. Gordon Donaldson1, advocating the use of such an approach, has suggested that the analysis of debt capacity may broadly involve the following steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. Determine the tolerance limit on the probability of cash insolvency. Specify the probability distribution of cash flows under adverse conditions (recessionary conditions). Calculate the fixed charges associated with various levels of debt. Estimate the debt capacity of the firm as the highest level of debt which is acceptable, given the tolerance limit, the probability distribution, and the fixed charges defined above.
This kind of analysis may be illustrated with the help of information for Phoenix Limited which is given as follows: Tolerance Limit The management of the company does not want the likelihood of cash insolvency to exceed 5 percent even in adverse (recessionary) conditions. Probability Distribution Under adverse (recessionary) conditions the company would have an expected cash inflow of Rs. 50 million with a standard deviation of Rs. 30 million. The cash inflow would be normally distributed. The initial cash balance of the company is Rs. 1.26 million. Fixed Charges The annual fixed charges associated with various levels of debt would be as follows : Level of Debt Annual Fixed Charges Upto Rs. 5 million Rs. 0.25 million for every Rs. 1 million of debt. Between Rs. 5 million and Rs. 10 million Between Rs. 10 million and Rs. 15 million Rs. 0.26 million for every Rs. 1 million of debt Rs. 0.27 million for every Rs. 1 million of debt.
Debt Capacity Given the above information the debt capacity may be established as follows : 1. Since the cash inflow is normally distributed the following variable has a standard normal distribution (Z distribution) : Cash inflow Mean value of cash inflow Standard deviation of cash inflow 2. 3. The Z value corresponding to 5 percent cumulative probability (which reflects the risk tolerance of the management) is 1.653. Since = Rs. 50 million, = Rs. 30 million, and the Z value corresponding to the risk tolerance limit is 1.645, the cash available from the operations of the firm to service the debt is equal to X which is defined as:
Tax Shield Education Centre X 50 = 1.645 30 This means X = Rs. 0.65 million 4. The total cash available for servicing the debt will be equal to: Rs. 0.65 million (cash available from operations) + Rs. 1.26 million (initial cash balance) = Rs. 1.91 million 5. The level of debt that can be serviced with Rs. 1.91 million is as follows : Amount Rs. 5.00 million Rs. 2.54 million Rs. 7.54 million Annual fixed charges 0.25 5.00 = Rs. 1.25 million 0.26 2.54 = Rs. 0.66 million Rs. 1.91 million
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International factoring and discounting Factoring and invoice discounting can also be arranged to finance international sales, where there are the added risks of volatile currency exchange rates, information for creditrisk assessment is more difficult to obtain, and usually longer credit periods are involved. For example, while firms in Germany and Scandinavia generally tend to pay within agreed credit terms, firms in Italy can take up to 120 days to pay. Most of the leading factoring and discounters will provide international services. They usually have a local presence, in the form of subsidiaries or agent, in most overseas markets, as this reduces potential language and settlement difficulties. Invoicing will normally be in the customers own language and currency, with around 80 per cent of the invoice value being provided within one working day. There is also an increasing tendency for banks to provide finance for export sales insurance that meets with the banks requirements. For example, the insurance contract usually includes a guarantee that the banks will be covered against default risk even if the exporter fails to keep up the insurance premiums, or fails in any other way to company with the terms of the contract. Example 1 Speedie Courier Services, a small courier service company, is growing rapidly but is expriencing difficulty in collecting payment promptly from many of its customers the average credit period taken is now 60 days and bad debts have risen to 0.75 per cent of credit sales. This is placing a serious strain on the companys cash flow and is restricting its growth plans. Debtors are currently being financial with a bank overdraft at an interest rate of 12 per cent. The directors are considering a factoring arrangement and have approached the Friendly Factoring Company. The directors would prefer a non-recourse facility. The factor has quoted terms of a prepayment of 85 per cent of the amount invoiced, with the balance of 15 per cent, less fees of 1.25 per cent of credit sales, being paid over to the company 30 days later. Find charges will be at 15 percent per year on the monies advanced, and bad debts will eliminated. Credit sales for the next year are projected at 250,000 per month, and the company is currently spending 25,000 per year, on administering its sales ledger and credit control systems. If the existing system was to be retained then the directors estimate that they would need to spend an additional 10,000 per year to upgrade systems and improve staffing. This expenditure would be saved if a factoring arrangement was adopted. Assuming a 365 day year, and that all the customer accounts will be accepted by the factor, calculate the net cost of factoring and compare this with current bank overdraft facility. Example 2 The turnover of R Ltd. is Rs. 60 lakhs of which 80% is on credit. Debtors are allowed one month to clear off the dues. A factor is willing to advance 90% of the bills raised on credit for a fee of 2% a month plus a commission of 4% on the
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total amount of debts. R Ltd. as a result of this arrangement is likely to save Rs. 21,600 annually in management costs and avoid bad debts at 1% on the credit sales. A scheduled bank has come forward to make an advance equal to 90% of the debts at an interest rate of 18% p.a. However its processing fee will be at 2% on the debts. Would you accept factoring or the offer from the bank? PROBLEMS WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 1. Your company is operating on 60% capacity, producing 24,000 units per annum, at the following cost-price structure: Rs. Raw materials 5 per unit Wages 3 Overheads : variable 2 fixed 1 Profit 2 Price 13 On 31 st December, 1997, the current assets and liabilities were as follows. Rs. Raw materials 4,000 units, at cost 20,000 Work in process 1,000 units, at cost 8,000 Finished goods 3,000 units, at cost 33,000 Sundry Debtors 78,000 Creditors for goods 30,000 Liability for wages 3,000 Liability for expenses 6,000 In view of increased demand for the product, it has been decided that from 1st January, 1998, the unit should operate at 90% capacity. You are required to ascertain the additional working capital as would be necessary in view of additional production. The prices of materials, rates of wages and expenses and the selling price per unit will not be changed. The period of credit allowed to customers, credit allowed by suppliers and also time lag in payment of wages and expenses shall remain the same as before. 2. On 1st January the board of directors of ABC Ltd. wish to know the amount of working capital that will be required to meet the program they have planned for the year. From the following information, prepare a working capital requirement forecast and a forecast Profit and Loss Account and Balance Sheet : Rs. Issued Share Capital 3,00,000 10% Debentures 50,000 Fixed Assets 2,25,000 Production during the previous year was 60,000 units; it is planned that this level of activity should be maintained during the present year. The expected ratios of cost to selling price are : raw materials 60%, direct wages 10%, overheads 20%. Raw materials are expected to remain in Store for an average of two months before issue to production. Each unit of production is expected to be in process for one month. Time lag in wage payment is one month. Finished goods will stay in the warehouse awaiting dispatch to customers for approximately 3 months. Credit allowed by creditors is two months from date of delivery of raw materials. Credit given to debtors is three months from date of dispatch. Selling price is Rs. 5 per unit. There is a regular production and sales cycle and wages and overheads accrue evenly. 3. A newly formed company has applied for a short-term loan to commercial bank for financing its working capital requirements. You are requested by the bank to prepare an estimate of the requirements of the working capital for that company. Add 10% to your estimated figure to cover unforeseen contingencies. The information about the projected profit & loss account of this company is as under : Amount (Rs.) Sales 21,00,000 Cost of goods sold 15,30,000 Gross profit 5,70,000 Administrative expenses 1,40,000
Tax Shield Education Centre Selling expenses Profit before tax Provision for tax 1,30,000 2,70,000 3,00,000 1,00,000 2,00,000
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Cost of goods sold has been derived as follows : Material used Wages and manufacturing expenses Depreciation Less : Stock of finished goods (10% not yet sold ) Rs. 8,40,000 6,25,000 2,35,000 17,00,000 1,70,000 15,30,000
There figures given above relate only to the goods that have been finished and not to work-in progress; goods equal to 15 % of the years production (in terms of physical units) are in progress on an average, requiring full materials but only 40 per cent of the other expenses. The company believes in keeping two months consumption of material in stock. Sales are at 20% cash & rest are in credit. All expenses are paid one month in arrear; suppliers of material extend 1 1/2 months credit; 70 per cent of the income-tax has to be paid in advance in quarterly installments. You can make such other assumptions as you deem necessary for estimating working capital requirements. Present on estimates of the requirement of i) Working Capital and ii) Cash Cost of Working Capital. 5. Rainbow Ltd. who has stared a new unit is scheduled to go in for commercial production shortly and you have been asked to assess the need of working capital and also how much of it the Banks are likely to provide. The following information are available: Rs. in lakhs 120.00 48.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 84.00
a) Estimated working results for the first year of operation Sales Income Expenses : Material Salaries and Wages Other Overheads Interest on Term Loan b)
Company is required to give 3 months credit to its customers. On the other hand the Company would enjoy 1(1/2) months credit from. its creditors for purchase of material. Stock of Material has to be kept for 3 months consumption. The Work-in-progress at any time would be represented by Material (1 month) and Expenses (1/2 month). There is a delay of 1 month before the Finished goods are sold. The following are the holding norms accepted by the Bank for the particular industry : Stock of Material = 2.5 months Work-in -progress = 1 month Book Debt = 1.5 months Finished Goods = 1 month Creditors = 2.5 months Prepare a report giving assessment with your comments. (assumptions as considered necessary and relevant ) The following annual figures relate to XYZ Co. : Sales (at two months credit) Materials consumed (suppliers extend two months credit ) Wages paid (monthly in arrear) Manufacturing expenses outstanding at the end of the year (cash expenses are paid one month in arrear ) Total administrative expenses, paid as above Sells promotion expenses, paid quarterly in advance Rs. 36,00,000 9,00,000 7,20,000 80,000 2,40,000 1,20,000
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The company sells is products on gross profit of 25% counting depreciation as part of the cost of production. It keens one months stock each o f raw material and finished goods, and a cash balance of Rs. 1,00,000. Assuming a 20% safety margin, work out the working capital requirements of the company on cash cost basis. Ignore work-in process. 8. Given below are the Profitability Statement for the year ended 31-3-1997 and Balance Sheet as at 31-3-1997 of Elec. Ltd. i) Profitability Statement for the year ended 31-3-1997 Rs. Lakhs Rs. Lakhs a) Sales 250 b) Cost of Sales :Material Consumed 125 Power & Fuel 5 Direct Labour 25 Other Variable Overheads 15 170 Add : Opening Work in Progress (WIP) 25 195 Deduct: Closing Work in Progress 25 Cost of Production 170 Add: Opening Stock of Finished Goods (FG) 15 185 Deduct: Closing Stock of Finished Goods Cost of Sales 10 175 c) Gross Profit (A-B) 75 d) Interest 13 e) Selling, General and Administrative Exps. 42 f) Profit before Tax 20 g) Taxation @ 55% 11 h) Net Profit 9 ii) Balance Sheet as at 31-3-1997 Capital & Liabilities Share Capital Reserves Term Loan @ 15% Bank Borrowing @ 16% (Working Capital) Current Liabilities: S. Creditors Rs./Lakh 25 20 35 50 Assets Fixed Assets Net of Depn. Current Assets : Inventories Work in Progress Finished Goods Book Debts Cash/Bank Rs./Lakh 60 25 25 10 30 10 160
30 160 The following Assumptions are made for the current year ended 31-3-1998 :1) Sales will be Rs. 300 lakhs. 2) Variable Expenses will vary in keeping with Sales volume. 3) Selling, General and Admin. Expanse. will be Rs. 45 lakhs. 4) Stock holding during year 19897-98 will be as under :Inventories : 2 1/2 months Cost of Material Consumed WIP : 1 months Cost of Production FG : 1/2 months Cost of Sales Book Debts : 1 1/2 months Sales Creditors : 3 months Cost of Material Consumed 5) Repayment of Term amounting to Rs.10 lakhs to be made on the last day of the financial year. 6) Depreciation for the year Rs. 2 lakhs. From the above you are required to prepare a profitability forecast for the year 1997-98, Projected Balance Sheet as at 31-3-98 and calculate the permissible Bank Finance as per Second Method of Lending (Refer re-commendation of Chore Committee and Tandon Committee). You may make assumptions as considered necessary. Calculate figures in nearest Rs. Lakhs. The following is the projected Balance Sheet of Excel Limited as on 31.3.98. The company wants to increase the fund based limits from the Zonal Bank from Rs. 100 lakhs to Rs. 300 lakhs : Balance Sheet as on 31.3.98 (Rs. Lakhs) Liabilities Rs. Assets Rs. Share Capital 100 Fixed Assets 800 Reserves & Surplus 150 Current Assets 1,000
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Tax Shield Education Centre Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Current Liabilities
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450 Misc. Expenditure 150 1,050 200 . 1,950 1,950 The following are the other information: 1) Secured loans include installments payable to financial institutions before 31.3.99 Rs. 100 lakhs. 2) Secured loans include working capital facilities expected from Zonal Bank Rs. 300 lakhs. 3) Unsecured loans include fixed deposits from public amounting to Rs. 400 lakhs out of which Rs. 100 lakhs are due for repayment before 31.3.99. 4) Unsecured loans include Rs. 600 lakhs of zero interest fully convertible debentures due for conversion on 30.9.99. 5) Current assets include deferred receivable due for payment after 31.3.99 Rs. 40 lakhs. 6) The company has introduced a voluntary retirement scheme for workers costing Rs. 40 lakhs payable on 31.3.2001 and this amount is included in current liability. i) You are required to calculate from the above information the MPBF by all the three methods W. capital as per Tandon Committee norms. For your exercise, assume that core current assets constitute 25% of the current assets. ii) Also compute the Current Ratio for all the three methods. DEBTORS MANAGEMENT 1. A companys collection pattern is as follows:10% of the Sales is the same month 20% of the Sales is the 2nd month 40% of the Sales is the 3rd month 30% of the Sales is the 4th month The sales of the Co. for the 1st & quarters of the year are as follows ( in Rs. ) :Month Q1 Q2 Q3 1st 15,000 7,500 22,500 2nd 15,000 15,000 15,000 3rd 15,000 22,500 7,500 Total 45,000 45,000 45,000 W/Days 90 90 90 You are req. to calculate the average age of the receivable and comment on the results. 2. Easy Limited specialise in the manufacture of a computer component. The component is currently sold for Rs. 1,000 and its variable cost is Rs. 800. For the year ended 31.12.97 the company sold on an average 400 components per month. At present the company one month credit to its customers. The company is thinking of extending the same to two months on account of which the following is expected: Increase in Sales 25% Increase in Stock Rs. 2,00,000 Increase in Creditors Rs. 1,00,000 You are required : To advise the company on whether or not to extend the credit terms if : a) all customers avail the extended credit period of two months and b) existing customers do not avail the credit terms but only the new customers avail the same. Assume in this case the entire increase in sales is attributable to the new customers. The company expects a minimum return of 40% on the investment. Premier Steel Limited has a present annual Sales turnover of Rs. 40,00,000/-. The unit Sale Price is Rs. 20/-. The Variable Costs are Rs. 12/- per unit and fixed costs amount to Rs. 5,00,000 per annum.The present credit period of one month is proposed to be extended to either 2 or 3 months whichever will be more profitable. The following additional information are available : on the basis of Credit period of 1 month 2 months 3 months Increase in Sales by 10% 30% % of Bad debts to Sales 1 2 5 Fixed Cost will increase by Rs. 75,000 when Sales will increase by 30%. The Company requires a Pretax return on I Investment at 20%. Evaluate the profitability of the proposals and recommend best credit period for the Company.
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A trade whose current sales are in the region of Rs. 6 lakhs per annum and an average collection period of 30 days wants to pursue a more liberal policy to improve sales. A study made by a management consultant reveals the following information Credit Policy Increase in collection period Increase in sales Present default anticipated A 10 days Rs. 30,000 1.5% B 20 days Rs. 48,000 2% C 30 days Rs. 75,000 3% D 45 days Rs. 90,000 4% The selling price per unit is Rs. 3. Average cost per unit is Rs. 2.25 and variable costs per unit are Rs. 2. The current bad debt loss is 1%. Required return on additional investment is 20%. Assume a 360 days year. Which of the above policies would you recommend for adoption?
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Star Limited, manufacturers of Colour TV sets, are considering the liberalisation of existing credit terms to three of their large customers A,B and C, The credit period and likely quantity of TV sets that will be lifted by the customers are as follows:(Quantity Lifted (No. of TV Sets) Credit Period (Days) A B C 0 1,000 1,000 30 1,000 1,500 60 1,000 2,000 1,000 90 1,000 2,500 1,500 The selling price per TV set is Rs. 9,000.The expected contribution is 20% of the selling price.The cost of carrying debtors averages 20% per annum. You are required :a) Determine the credit period to be allowed to each customer, (Assume 360 days in a year for calculation purposes). b) What other problems the company might face in allowing the credit period as determined. in (a) above? A companys credit sales amount to Rs.60 lakhs with variable cost to sales ratio of 60% and annual fixed costs of Rs.12 lakhs. Its present credit policy is 60 days or 2 months. It proposes to introduce a cash discount scheme of " 2/10, net 60 i.e., 2% discount will be allowed if payment is received before the 10 th day after the date of invoice; payment is, ordinarily, due by the 60th day. It is also estimated that 50% of debtors will take advantage of the discount scheme. As a result, the average age of debtors would be reduced to 1 month. The required rate of return on investment in debtors may be taken at 20% before tax. Evaluate the proposal. bb 203 A company is considering whether credit should be granted to a new customer who is expected to make a repeat purchase. The Finance manager is of the opinion that the probability that the customer will pay is 0.90 and the probability that he will default is 0.10. If the customer pays for the first purchase, the probability that he will pay for the repeat purchase increases to 0.95. The revenues from the sale will be Rs.30,000 and the cost of sale would be Rs.24,000 for both the initial and repeat purchase. Advise the company whether it should grant the credit. bb213 XYZ Ltd. has annually credit sales amounting to Rs. 10,0000 which grants a credit of 60 days. However, at present no discount facility is offered by the firm to its customers. The company is considering a plan to offer a discount of 3/12 net 60. The offer of discount is expected to bring the total credit period from 60 days to 45 days. And 50% of the customers (in value) are likely to avail the discount facility. The selling price of the product is Rs. 15 while the average cost per unit comes to Rs. 12. Please advise the company whether to resort to discount facility if the rate of return is 20% and a month is equal to 30 days. Pg: 81 s mat
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Cash management 1. Beta Limited has an annual turnover of Rs. 84 crores and the same is spread over evenly each of the 50 weeks of the working year. However, the pattern within each week is that the daily rate of receipts on Mondays and Tuesdays is twice that experienced on the other three days of week. The cost of banking per day is Rs. 2,500 . It is suggested that banking shoud be done daily or twice a week Tuesdays & Fridays as compared to the current practice of banking only
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on Fridays. Beta Limited always operates on bank overdraft and the current rate of interest is 15% per annum. This interest charge is applied by the bank on a simple daily basis. Ignoring taxation, advise Beta Limited the best course of banking. For your exercise, use 360 days a year for computational purposes. 2. . The annual cash requirement of A Ltd. is Rs. 10 lakhs. The company has marketable securities in lot sizes of Rs. 50,000, Rs. 1,00,000, Rs 2,00,000 ,Rs. 2,50,000 and Rs. 5,00,000. Cost of conversion of marketable securities per lot is Rs. 1,000. The company can earn 5% annual yield on its securities. You are required to prepare a table indicating which lot size will have to be sold by the company. Also show that the economic lot size can be obtained by the Baumol Model. Avanti paperboard Ltd. issues cheques worth Rs.15,000 and also received cheques worth Rs.28,000 daily. Normally the cheque issued by the company takes 6 days to be cleared while the bank takes about 3 days for the cheques deposited by the company to be realized. Assume that the opening credit balance of the company with the bank is Rs.20,000. You are required to find out on which date the steady state condition will be reached and calculate the net float. Indicate whether the net float is positive or negative. Cfa app2000q-2
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The municipal authority of Arvindnagar City receives most of its cash inflow from taxes, which are its primary source of revenue, on two days in a year - January 15 and July 15. The inflow on each of the days is Rs.150 crore. But, the cash expenses of the authority are spread out evenly through the tear. The municipal authority invests its funds in marketable securities, which now yield 8%, and converts then into cash based on the necessity. The transaction costs involved in converting securities to cash are Rs.12,500 for each conversion, regardless of the amount converted. a. What is the optimal transaction size for converting marketable securities to cash ? What is the average cash balance ? b. Calculate the optimal transaction size and the average cash balance if the yield on securities and transaction cost are 12% and Rs.7,500 respectively. Why is the answer obtained different from that in (a) above ? Explain. TFM JAN-2000 P-1 Q-1 4. 5. CW Limited invests temporary cash surpluses in short-term deposits. The treasurer of CW Limited has forecast the following cash movements, and associated probabilities, for the next two months. By the end of month 3, the company will have much lower cash surplus and possibly cash deficits. Probability Cash available now Net cash flow in month 1 Net cash flow in month 2 200,000 + 400,000 + 600,000 - 650,000 - 750,000 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5
Assume that all movements of cash take place on the last day of each month. The structure of short-term interest rates is currently as follows : Maturity period 1 month 2 months Annual yield 6.5% 6.6%
Economic forecasters expect interest rates to rise, and in one months time they are expected to be 6.8% p.a. for one-month deposits. Transaction costs are 150 per transaction below 600,000 and 200 per transaction in excess of this amount. REQUIREMENTS : (i) Calculate the estimated cash balance at the end of months 1 and 2.
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(ii) Recommend, with reasons, how the cash surpluses available between now and the end of month 2 should be deposited to maximise before-tax income. SFM 24 November 1998 6. M/s. cashrich Ltd. is a company which has an exclusive treasury desk to ensure that cash surplus/deficit is managed as effectively as possible. For this purpose the Financial Manager has reviewed the historical data so that she can prescribe the limits for holding cash balances. The historical data revealed that the fixed cost associated with each transaction of converting security to cash and vice versa is Rs.1000. If the yeild on security is 14% and if the variance of cash flows is Rs.12,500, suggest suitable limits to the treasurer. What is the significant assumption about the trend in cash flows under the control-limit model when applied to cash management ? TFM JULY 96 Q-2 Illustration on lock box A company follows centralised billing and collection system. Under this system there is an average daily receipt of Rs. 6,000,000. A company is thinking of introducing concentration banking system. It is estimated that the introduction of such a system will reduce the collection period of accounts receivable by 4 days. The company estimates that the introduction of concentration banking would cost Rs. 50,000 annually. The company as an alternative can introduce lock box system instead of concentration banking. It is estimated that introduction of lock-box system could reduce collection period by 5 days and could cost the company Rs. 75,000 annually. The companys cost of capital is 10%. You are required to: (i) (ii) Find out the amount of the cash that would be released with the introduction of concentration banking. Find out the amount of money that can be saved due to reduction in the collection period and whether the company should introduce concentration banking system.
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(iii) Find out the amount of money that can be released by lock-box system. (iv) The amount of money that could be saved by introduction of lock-box system and whether the company should introduce this system. (v) Whether the company should introduce lock-box system or concentration banking system. s mat 69 INVENTORY MANAGEMENT 1. From the following details, draw a plan of ABC selective control: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2. Item Units Rs. 7,000 24,000 1,500 600 38,000 40,000 60,000 3,000 300 29,000 11,500 4,100 Unit cost 5.00 3.00 10.00 22.00 1.50 0.50 0.20 3.50 8.00 0.40 7.10 6.20
In a factory, stock verification costs work out to about 3% on inventory values and the discrepancies revealed are about 0.6 per cent on an average, The following table shows a breakdown of the inventory : No. of items Value Rs./lakhs Unit cost over Rs. 5 1300 18.00 Unit cost between Rs. 5 & Re.1 4000 8.00 Unit cost Re. 1 & less 6700 2.00 12000 28.00 The management feels that verification costs are excessive. Give your opinion regarding the proposed verification.
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A Wholesaler supplies 30 stuffed dolls each week day to various shops. Dolls are purchased from the manufacturer in lots of 120 each for Rs. 1200 per lot. Every order incurs a handling charge of Rs. 60 plus a freight charge of Rs. 250 per lot. Multiple and fractional lots, also can be ordered and all orders are filled the next day. The incremental cost is Re. 0.60 per year to store a doll in inventory. The wholesaler finances inventory investment by paying its holding company 2% monthly for borrowed funds. How many dolls should be ordered for, at a time in order to minimise the total annual inventory cost ? Assume that there are 250 weekdays in a year. How frequently he should order ? The Heavy Nitro Company is considering the optimal batch size for re-order of concentrated sulfuric acid. The Management Accountant has supplied the following information : The purchase price of H2SO4 is Rs. 2 pr gallon. The clerical and data processing costs are Rs. 10.6 per order. All the transport is done by rail. A charge of Rs. 40 is made each time the special line to the factory is opened. A charge of 20 p. per gallon is also made. The company uses 40,000 gallon per year. Maintenance costs of stock are Rs. 4 per gallon per year. Each gallon requires sq.ft of storage space. If warehouse space is not used, it can be rented out to Manganese Ltd. At Rs. 2 per sq.ft. per annum. Available warehouse space is 1,000 sq. ft. the overhead costs being Rs. 2,000 per annum. Assume that all free warehouse space can be rented out. Calculate the economic re-order size. The EOQ of material X in 250 units. At EOQ total ordering cost in equal to Rs. 5000, the management places 4 orders during the year. One supplier gives an offer of a discount of Rs. 1000 if the number of orders placed in 2. Comment with supporting calculation for the acceptability of the offer. The results of a companys stocktaking at the financial year end were as follows : Item Category Cost Net realisable value Rs. Rs. 1 X 20 21 2 X 30 28 3 X 10 9 4 Y 70 73 5 Y 90 88 6 Y 100 102 7 Z 200 210 8 Z 250 240 9 Z 280 270 1,050 1,041 You are required to ; (a) give three values, conforming to the formula cost or net realisable value, whichever is the lower which could be placed upon stock for balance sheet purpose. (b) state, briefly and with reasons, which of these three values the company should in your opinion, adapt ?
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The relevant costs, demand and space requirements of three items which constitute the inventory of a tiny sector industrial unit are given in the Table below. The maximum space available is 9000 sq.ft. Determine the optimal order quantities for the three items. Item 1 2 3 Price per unit (in Rs.) 36 72 28 Carrying Cost, (Rs. Per unit per year) 9 18 7 Ordering cost, (Rs. Per order) 270 360 280 Annual requirement, (number of units) 6300 9000 4900 Space required, (sq. ft. per unit of item) 3 9 14 ( Assume = 1.06 ) 8. Bharat Sabun Ltd. (BSL) buys 1000 tonnes of tallow from the market annually and each order is estimated to cost around Rs. 10,000. The cost of holding inventory, covering all fats and oils inputs, is estimated to be 30 percent. A decision on the optimal order quantities is made at the beginning of the financial year . The prevailing price of tallow is Rs. 10,000 per tonne. However, the economic section of BSL estimates the inflation at 15 per cent. What should be BSLs optimal order for tallow ?
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A company works 50 weeks in a year. For a certain part, included in the assembly of several parts, there is an annual demand of 10,000 units. This part may be obtained from either an outside supplier or a subsidiary company. The following data relating to the part are given : From outside Supplier Rs. Purchase price/unit 12 Cost of placing an order 10 Cost of receiving an order 20 Storage and all carrying costs, Including capital cost per unit per annum 2 What purchase quantity and from which source would you recommend ? What would be the minimum total cost ? From subsidiary company Rs. 13 10 15 2
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Bharat Telecom entered into a contract with Mahan Instruments for the purchase of 12,360 instruments from the latter at the rate of Rs. 235 per instrument during the years 1999 and 2000 . It has not, however, entered into a staggered delivery contract. The deliveries of the instruments will be made each time half a month after the order is placed. Bharat estimates its carrying costs at Rs. 47 per instrument per annum. The costs of paper work, follow-up, transport, and receipt and inspection work out to Rs. 2,000. How frequently should Bharat place orders on Mahan ? What is the Re-order Point ? Vegwan Motorcycles made a forecast of the demand for their motorcycles for the year 1990. The demand for January was forecast at 500, and that for subsequent months was estimated to increase by a trend value of 30 motorcycles per month. The Mean Absolute Deviation in the demand forecasts are estimated at 30 . At a 98 per cent service level, what is (a) the re-order point and (b) the safety stock required under a Q-system of inventory control? Take the lead time for delivery as 2 months. Dombivli Developers (DD) use 9500 door handles per year. The door handles are procured from Maganial Popatial & Co. at a unit price of Rs. 27. The inventory carrying costs are estimated at 25 per cent and the order costs at Rs. 100 per order. If the lead time for procurement is 10 calendar days, (if both companies operate 6 days in a week 52 weeks in a year), and if the service level is 95 per cent. (a) Compute Recorder point and EOQ under a Q-system and (b) Compute target level and recorder cycle under a p-system. Assume standard deviation of daily demand at 10 units.
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13. An electrical company uses a particular type of thermostat, which costs Rs. 5. The demand averages 800 p.a. and the EOQ has been calculated at 200. Holding costs are 20% p.a. and stock-out costs have been estimated at Rs. 2 per item, that is not available. Demand and lead times vary, but fortunately, the company has kept records of usage over 50 lead times as follows: (a) (b) (c) Usage in lead time Number of times recorded Probability (b 50) 25 29 units 1 0.02 30 34 units 8 0.16 35 39 units 10 0.20 40 44 units 12 0.24 45 49 units 9 0.18 50 54 units 5 0.10 55 59 units 5 0.10 Total 50 1.00 From the above calculate recorder level and safety stock. (SVT 2.82) 14. XYZ Companys experience of being out of stock in respect of a key item is as below : Stock-out (number of units) Number of times 2,000 4 (1) 1,600 8 (2) 1,000 12 (3) 400 16 (4) 200 40 (10)
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0 320 (80) Figures in brackets represent percentage of times the item was our of stock. Assume that the Stock-out costs are Rs. 100 pr unit. The carrying cost of inventory is Rs. 50 per unit. Determine the optima level of Stock out inventory . Creditors Management 1. MP Ltd. is a manufacturing company which trades with a large number of suppliers of raw materials, components etc. The company' financial manager has asked you, her assistant, to review the terms of trade and their associated costs. As part of the exercise, you randomly choose three regular suppliers of one particular component. They have the following terms : Supplier A charges a fixed penalty of 2% on invoice value for late payment. Supplier B charges compound interest at 2% per 30-dayy period after the due date of payment. Supplier C offers a 2% discount if payment is made within 10 days of invoice date but charges simple interest at 10% p.a. on the invoice value if payment is after the due date. Assume that the due date for payment in each case is 30 days but that MP Limiteds current credit control policy is to take an average of 90 days to pay these suppliers invoices. To simplify your calculations, assume also that MP Ltd. purchases 1,000 worth of goods from each supplier every month. REQUIREMENT : Write a report to the financial manager which includes. (.i) a calculation of the annualised interest rate (ie percent per annum) for each of the three suppliers. (ii) a discussion of the arguments for and against using trade credit as a source of funds, in general and from MP Limiteds point of view, given their current credit policy. (iii) a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages to MP Limited of introducing standard terms of trade with which all suppliers will have to conform. CIMA SFM NOV 98 q-3
MULTINATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET If there were a single international currency, there would be no need for a foreign exchange market. As it is, in any international transaction, at least one party is dealing in a foreign currency. The purpose of the foreign exchange market is to permit transfers of purchasing power denominated in one currency to another that is, to trade one currency for another currency. For example, a Japanese exporter sells automobiles to a U.S. dealer for
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dollars, and a U.S. manufacturer sells machine tools to a Japanese company for yen . Ultimately, however, the U.S. company will likely be interested in receiving dollars, whereas the Japanese exporter will want yen. Similarly, an American investor in Swiss-franc- denominated bonds must convert dollars into francs, and Swiss purchasers of U.S. Treasury bills require dollars to complete these transactions. Because it would be inconvenient, to say the least, for individual buyer and sellers of foreign exchange to seek out one another, a foreign exchange market has developed to act as an intermediary. Most currency transactions are channeled through the worldwide inter bank market, the wholesale market in which major banks trade with one another. This market is normally referred to as the foreign exchange market. In the spot market, currencies are trade for immediate delivery, which is actually within two business days after the transaction has been concluded. In the forward market, contracts are made to buy or sell currencies for future delivery. The foreign exchange market is not a physical place; rather, it is an electronically linked network of banks, foreign exchange brokers, and dealers whose function is to be bring together buyers and sellers of foreign exchange. It is not confined to any one country but is dispersed throughout the leading financial centers of the world : London, New York City, Paris, Zurich, Amsterdam, Tokyo, Toronto, Milan, Frankfurt, and other cities. Trading is generally done by telephone or telex machine. Foreign exchange traders in each bank usually operate out of a separate foreign exchange trading room. Each trader has several telephones and is surrounded by display monitors and telex machines feeding up-to-the minute information. It is a hectic existence, and many traders burn out by age 35. Most transactions are based on oral communications; written confirmation occurs latter. Hence, an informal code of moral conduct has evolved over time in which the foreign exchange dealers world is their bond. The Participants The major participants in the foreign exchange market are the large commercial banks; foreign exchange brokers in the inter bank ; commercial customers, primarily multinational corporations; and central banks, which intervene in the market from time to time to smooth exchange rate fluctuations or to maintain target exchange rates. Central bank intervention involving buying or selling in the market is often indistinguishable from the foreign exchange dealings of commercial banks or of other private participants. Only the head offices or regional offices of the major commercial banks are actually marketmakers that is, actively deal in foreign exchange for their own accounts. These banks stand ready to buy or sell any of the major currencies on a more or loss continuous basis. A large fraction of the interbank transactions in the United State is conducted through foreign exchange brokers, specialists in matching net supplier and demander banks. These brokers, of whom there are about a half dozen at present ( located in New York City ), receive a small commission an all trades. Some brokers tend to specialized in certain currencies, but they all handle major currencies such as the pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc. Commercial and central bank customers buy and sell foreign exchange through their banks. However, most small banks and local offices of major banks do not deal directly in the interbank market. Rather, they typically will have will have a credit line with a large bank or with their home office . Thus, transactions with local banks will involve an extra step. The customer deals with a local bank that in turn deals with its head office or a major bank. The various linkages between banks and their customers are depicted in Exhibit 1. Note that the diagram includes linkages with currency futures and options markets, which we will examine in the next chapter. EXHIBIT 1 Structure of Foreign Exchange Markets Customer buys $ with DM Local bank . . Foreign exchange broker Major banks interbank market Local bank Stockbroker IMM LIFFE PSE Stockbroker .
Tax Shield Education Centre Customer buys DM with $
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NOTE : The International Money Market (IMM) Chicago trades foreign exchange futures and DM futures options. The London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) trades foreign exchange futures. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PSE) trades foreign currency options.
THE SPOT MARKET This section examines the spot market in foreign exchange. It covers spot quotations, transaction costs, and the mechanics of spot trading. Spot Quotations : Almost all major newspapers print a daily list of exchange rates. For major currencies, up to four different quotes (price) are displayed. One is the spot price. The other might include the 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day forward prices. These quotes are for trades among dealers in the interbank market. When interbank trades involve dollars (about 60% of such trades do), these rates will be expressed in either American terms (numbers of U.S. dollars per unit of foreign currency) or European terms (number of foreign-currency units per U.S. dollar). In The Wall Street Journal, quotes in both American and European terms are listed side (see Exhibit 2.3). For example, on February 6, 1990, the American quote for the Swiss franc was SFr 1 = $ 0.6766, and the European quote was $1 = SFr 1.4780. Nowadays, in trades involving dollars, all except U.K. and Irish exchange rates are expressed in European terms. In their dealings with non-bank customers, banks in most countries use a system of direct quotation. A direct exchange rate quote gives the home currency price of a certain quantity of the foreign currency quoted usually 100 units, but only one unit in the case of the U.S. dollar or the pound starling). For example, the price of foreign currency is expressed in French francs (FF) in France and in Deutsche marks (DM) in Germany. Thus, in France, the Deutsche mark might be quoted at FF 4 while, in Germany, the franc would be quoted at DM 0.25. There are exceptions to this rule, through. Banks in Great Britain quote the value of the pound sterling ( ) in terms of the foreign currency for example, 1 = $1.7625. This method of indirect quotation is also used in the United States for domestic purposes and for the Canadian dollar. In their foreign exchange activities abroad, however, U.S. banks adhere to the European method of direct quotation. Bank do not normally charge a commission on their currency transactions, but profit from the spread between the buying and selling rates. Quotes are always given in pairs because a dealer usually does not know whether a prospective customer is in the market to buy or to sell a foreign currency. The first rate is the buy, or bid, price; the second is the sell or ask, or offer, rate. Suppose the pound sterling is quoted at $1.7019-36. This quote means that banks are willing to buy pounds at $1.7019 and sell them at $1.7036. In practice, dealers do not quote the full rate to each other; instead, they quote only the last two digits of the decimal. Thus, sterling would be quoted at 19-36 in the above example. Any dealer who isnt sufficiently up-to-date to know the preceding numbers will not remain in business for long. Transaction Costs. The bid-ask spread that is, the spread between bid and ask rates for a currency is based on the breadth and depth of the market for that currency as well as on the currencys volatility. This spread is usually stated as a percentage cost of transacting in the foreign exchange market, which is computed as follows : Percent spread = Ask price Bid price x 100 Ask price
For example, with pound sterling quoted at $1.7019 36, the percentage spread equals 0.1% : Percent spread = 1.70036 1.7019 = 0.1% 1.7036
For widely traded currencies such as the pound, DM, and yen, the spread might be on the order of 0.1 0.5 %. Less heavily traded currencies have higher spreads. These spreads have widened appreciably for most currencies since the general switch to floating rates in early 1973.
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The quotes found in the financial press are not those that individuals or firms would get at a local bank. Unless otherwise specified, these quotes are for transactions in the interbank market exceeding $1 million. (The standard transaction amount in the interbank market is now $3 million). But competition ensures that individual customers receive rates that reflect, even if they do not necessarily equal, interbank quotations. For example, a trade may believe that he or she can trade a little more favourably than the market rates indicate that is, buy from a customer at a slightly lower rate or sell at a somewhat higher rate than the market rate. Thus, if the current spot rate for the Swiss franc is $0.6967 72, the bank may quote a customer a rate of $0.6964 75. On the other hand, a bank that is temporarily short in a currency may be willing to pay a slightly more favorable rate; or if the bank has overbought, it may be willing to sell at a lower rate. For these reasons, may corporations will shop around at several banks for quotes before committing themselves to a transaction. On large transactions customers also may get a rate break inasmuch as it ordinarily does not take much more effort to process a large order than a small order. The market for travellers checks and smaller currency exchanges, such as might be made by a traveller going abroad, is quite separate from the interbank market. The spread on these smaller exchanges is much wider than that in the interbank market, reflecting the higher average costs banks incur on such transactions. As a result, individuals and firms involved in smaller retail transactions generally pay a higher price when buying and receive a lower price when selling foreign exchange than those quoted in newspapers. Cross Rates. Because most currencies are quoted against the dollar, it may be necessary to work out the cross-rates for currencies other than the dollar. For example, if the Deutsche mark is selling for $0.60 and the buying rate for the French franc is $0.15, then the DM / FF cross-rate is DM 1 = FF 4. Exhibit 2.4 contains cross-rates for major currencies on February 6, 1990. Currency Arbitrage. Until recently, the pervasive practice among bank dealers was to quote all currencies against the U.S. dollar when trading among themselves. Now, however, about 40% of all currency trades dont involve the dollar, and that percentage is growing. For example, Swiss banks may quote the Deutsche mark against the Swiss franc, and German banks may quote pounds sterling in terms of Deutsche marks. Exchange traders are continually alert to the possibility of taking advantage, through currency arbitrage transactions, of exchange rate inconsistencies in different money centres. These transactions involve buying a currency in one market and selling it in another. Such activities tend to keep exchange rates uniform in the various markets. Settlement Date. The value date for spot transactions, the date on which the monies must be paid to the parties involved, is set as the second working day after the date on which the transaction is concluded. Thus, a spot deal entered into on Thursday in Paris will not be settled until the following Monday (French banks are closed on Saturdays and Sundays). It adjusted to reflect interest differentials on the currencies involved. Exchange Risk. Bankers also act as marketmakers, as well as agents, by taking positions in foreign currencies, thereby exposing themselves to exchange risk. The immediate adjustment of quotes as trades receive and interpret new political and economic information is the source of both exchange losses and gains by banks active in the foreign exchange market. Clearly, as a trader becomes more and more uncertain about the rate at which she can offset a given currency contract with other dealers or customers, she will demand a greater profit to bear this added risk. This expectation translates into a wider bid-ask spread. For example, during a period of volatility in the exchange rate between the French franc and U.S. dollar, a trade will probably quoted a customer a bid for franc that is distinctly lower than the last observed bid in the interbank market; the trader will attempt to reduce the risk of buying francs at a price higher than that at which she can eventually resell them. Similarly, the trade may quote a price for the sale of francs that is above the current asking price.
The Mechanics of Spot Transactions The simplest way to explain the process of actually settling transactions in the spot market is to work through an example. Suppose a U.S. importer requires FF 1 million to pay his French supplier. After receiving and accepting a verbal quote from the trade of a U.S. bank, the importer will be asked to specify two accounts: (1) the account in a U.S. bank that he wants debited for the equivalent dollar amount at the agreed exchange rate and (2) the French suppliers account that is to be credited by FF 1 million. Upon completion of the verbal agreement, the trade will forward a dealing slip containing the relevant information to the settlement section of her bank. That same day, a contract note that includes the amount of the foreign currency, the
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dollar equivalent at the agreed rate, and confirmation of the payment instructions will be sent to the importer. The settlement section will then cable the banks correspondent (or branch) in Paris, requesting transfer of FF 1 million from its nostro account that is, working balances maintained with the correspondent to facilitate delivery and receipt of currencies to the account specified by the importer. On the value date, the U.S. bank will debit the importers account, and the exporter will have his account credited by the French correspondent. At the time of the initial agreement, the trader provides a clerk with the pertinent details of the transaction. The clerk, in turn constantly updates a position sheet that shows the banks position by currency (as well as by maturities of forward contracts). A number of the major international banks have fully computerised this process to ensure accurate and instantaneous information on individual transactions and on the banks cumulative currency exposure at any time. The head trader will monitor this information for evidence of possible fraud or excessive exposure in a given currency. Because spot transactions are normally settled two working days later, a bank is never certain until one or two days after the deal is concluded whether the payment due the bank has actually been made. To keep this credit risk in bonds, most banks will transact large amounts only with prime names (other banks or corporate customers). THE FORWARD MARKET: Forward exchange operations carry the same credit risk as spot transactions, but for longer periods of time; however, there are significant exchange risks involved. A forward contract between a bank and a customer (which could be another bank) calls for delivery, at a fixed future date, of a specified amount of one currency against dollar payment; the exchange rate is fixed at the time the contract is entered into. Although the Deutsche mark is the most widely traded currency at present, active forward markets exist for the pound sterling, the Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen, and the major Continental currencies particularly the Swiss franc, French franc, Belgian franc, Italian lira, and Dutch guilder. In general, forward markets for the currencies of less-developed countries (LDCs) are either limited or non-existent. In a typical forward transaction, for example, a U.S. company buys textiles from England with payment of 1 million due in 90 days. The importer, thus, is short pounds that is, it owes pounds for future delivery. Suppose the present price of the pound is $1.71. Over the next 90 days, however, the pound might rise against the dollar, raising the dollar cost of the textiles. The importer can guard against this exchange risk by immediately negotiating a 90-day forward contract with a bank at a price of, say, 1 = $1.72. According to the forward contract, in 90 days the bank will give the importer 1 million (which it will use to pay for its textile order), and the importer will give the bank $1.72 million, which is the dollar equivalent of 1 million at the forward rate of $1.72. Forward Market Participants: The major participants in the forward market can be categorised as arbitrageurs, traders, hedgers, and speculators. Arbitrageurs seek to earn risk-free profits by taking advantage of differences in interest rates among countries. They are forward contracts to eliminate the exchange risk involved in transferring their from one nation to another. Traders use forward contracts to eliminate or cover the risk of loss on export or import orders that are denominated in foreign currencies. More generally, a forward-covering transaction relates to a specified point in time. Hedgers, mostly multinational firms, engage in forward contracts to protect the home currency value of various foreign-currency-denominated assets and liabilities on their balance sheets that are not to be realised over the life of the contracts. Arbitrageurs, traders, and hedgers seek to reduce (or eliminate, if possible) their exchange risks by locking in the exchange rate on future trade or financial operations. In contrast to these three types of forward market participants, speculators actively expose themselves to currency risk by buying or selling currencies forward in order to profit from exchange rate fluctuations. Their degree of participation does not depend on their business transactions in other currencies; instead, it is based on prevailing forward rates and their expectations for spot exchange rates in the future. Forward Quotations:
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Forward rates can be expressed in two ways. Commercial customers are usually quoted the actual price, otherwise known as the outright rate. In the interbank market, however, dealers quote the forward rate only as a discount from, or a premium on, the spot rate. This forward differential is known as the swap rate. A foreign currency is at a forward discount if the forward rate expressed in dollars is below the spot rate, whereas a forward premium exist if the forward rate is above the spot rate. As we shall see in Section 2.5, the forward premium or discount is closely related to the difference in interest rates on the two currencies. According to Exhibit 2.3, spot Japanese yen on February 6, 1990, sold at $0.006879 while 90-day forward yen were priced at $0.006902. Based on these rates, the swap rate for the 90-day forward yen was quoted as a 23-point premium (0.006902 0.006879). Similarly, because the 90-day British pound was quoted at $1.6745 while the spot pound was $1.7015, the 90-day forward British pound sold at a 270-point discount. Alternatively, the discount or premium may be expressed as an annualised percentage deviation from the spot rate using the following formula : Forward premium or discount = Forward rate Spot rate x 12 Spot rate Forward contract length in months .
Thus, on February 6, 1990, the three-month forward Japanese yen was selling at a 1.34% annualised premium : Forward premium annualised = 0.006902 0.006879 x 12 . = 0.006879 3 0.0134
The three-month British pound was selling at a 6.35% annualised discount : Forward discount annualised = 1.6745 1.7015 x 1.7015 12 = 0.0635 3
A swap rate can be converted into an outright rate by adding the premium (in points) to, or subtracting the discount (in points) from, the spot rate. Although the swap rates do not carry plus or minus signs, you can determine whether the forward rate is at a discount or premium using the following rule : When the forward bid in points is smaller than the offer rate in points, the forward rate is at a premium and the points should be added to the spot price to compute the outright quote. Conversely, if the bid in points exceeds the offer in points, the forward rate is at a discount and the points must be subtracted from the spot price to get the outright quotes.5 Suppose, for example, that the following quotes are received for spot, one-month, three-month, and six-month Swiss francs (SFr) and pounds sterling : : $2.0015 30 SFr : $0.6963 68 The outright rates are Maturity Spot One-month Three-month Six-month Bid Ask Spread (%) Bid SFr Ask 0.6974 0.6982 0.7006 Spread (%) 0.100 0.143 0.257 19 1726 2242 35 4 6 9 14 25 38
$2.0015 $2.0030 0.075 1.9996 2.0013 1,9989 2,0008 1.9973 1.9995
$0.6963 $0.6969 0.086 0.085 0.6967 0.095 0.6972 0.110 0.6988
Thus, the Swiss franc is selling at a premium against the dollar and the pound is selling at a discount. Note the slightly wider percentage spread between outright bid and offer on the Swiss franc compared with the spread on the pound. This difference is due to the broader market in pounds. Note too the widening of spreads over time for both currencies. This widening is caused by the greater uncertainty surrounding future exchange rates.
Exchange Risk. Spreads in the forward market are a function of both the breadth of the market (volume of transactions) in a given currency and the risks associated with forward contracts. The risks, in turn, are based on the variability of future spot rates. Even if the spot market is stable, there is no guarantee that future rates will remain invariant. This uncertainty will be reflected in the forward market. Furthermore, because beliefs about distant exchange rates are typically less secure than those about nearer-term rates, uncertainty will increase with lengthening maturities of forward
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contracts. Dealers will quote wider spreads on longer-term forward contracts to compensate themselves for the risk of being unable to profitably reverse their positions. Moreover, the greater unpredictability of future spot rates may reduce the number of market participants. This increased thinness will further widen the bid-ask spread because it magnifies the dealers risk in taking even a temporary position in the forward market. Cross-Rates. Forward cross-rates are figured in much the same way as spot cross-rates. For instance, suppose a customer wants to sell one-month forward lire (Lit) against Dutch guilder (Dfl) delivery. The market rates (expressed in European terms of foreign currency units per dollar) are $ : Lit spot One-month forward $ : Dft spot One-month forward 1,890.00 1,892.00 1,894.25 1,897.50 3.4582 3.4600 3,4530 3,4553
Based on these rates, the forward cross-rate for selling lire against guilders is found as follows : Forward lire are sold for dollars that is, dollars are bought at the lira forward selling price of Lit 1,897.50 = $1 and are simultaneously sold for one-month forward guilders at a rate of Dfl 3.4530. Thus, Lit 1,897.50 = Dfl 3.4530 or the forward selling price for lire against guilders is Lit 1,897.50 / 3.4530 = Lit 549.52. Similarly, the forward buying rate for line against guilders is Lit 1.894.25 / 3.4553 = Lit 548.22. The spot selling rate is Lit 1,892.0 / 3.4582 = Lit 547.11. Hence, the forward discount on selling lire against Dfl delivery equals (549.52 547.11) / 547.11 = 0.0044 or 5.29% p.a. (0.0044 x 12 = 0.0529). Forward Contract Maturities Forward contracts are normally available for one-month, two-month, three-month, six-month, or 12-month delivery. Banks will also tailor forward contracts for odd maturities (e.g., 77 days) to meet their customers needs. Longer-term forward contracts can usually be arranged for widely traded currencies, such as the pound sterling, Deutsche mark, or Japanese yen; however, the bid-ask spread tends to widen for longer maturities. As with spot rates, these spreads have widened for almost all currencies since the early 1970s, probably because of the greater turbulence in foreign exchange markets. For wider traded currencies, the three-month bid-ask spread can vary from 0.1% to 1%. Bank Policy on Speculation: Clearly, there is greater risk for a bank in its forward transactions than in spot contacts because of the more remote payment date and greater change of unfavourable currency fluctuations. There are two types of risk here : (1) the risk of price fluctuations and (2) the risk that the contracts will not be carried out. The first risk will affect the bank only if it carries an open position in the forward contract. Typically, however, the bank will lay this risk off engaging in an offsetting transaction. The bank carries the second risk, even if it has a net position of zero, because it stands in the middle. Banks are, therefore, concerned over the creditworthiness of their customers. If a bank believes currency speculation is involved, it might require a customer to put up a margin of 10% of the forward contract to protect itself in case of default. Generally, however, banks prefer to discourage speculative transactions.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FORWARD RATE AND THE FUTURE
SPOT RATE :
Our current understanding of the workings of the foreign exchange market suggests that, in the absence of government intervention in the market, both the spot rate and the forward rate are influenced heavily by current expectations of future evens; and both rates move in tandem, with the link between them based on interest differentials. New information, such as a change in interest rate differentials, is reflected almost immediately in both spot and forward rates. Suppose a depreciation of pounds sterling is anticipated. Recipients of sterling will begin selling sterling forward, while sterling-area dollar earns will slow their sales of dollars in the forward market. These actions will tend to depress the price of forward sterling. At the same time, banks will probably try to even out their long (net purchaser) positions in forward sterling by selling sterling spot. In addition, sterling-area recipients of dollars will tend to delay converting dollars into sterling, and earns of sterling will sped up their collection and conversion of sterling. In this way, pressure from the forward market is transmitted to the spot market, and vice versa. Equilibrium is achieved only when the forward differential equals the expected change in the exchange rate. At this point, there is no longer any incentive to buy or sell the currency forward. This condition is illustrated in Exhibit 2.6. The
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vertical axis measures the expected change in the home currency (HC) value of the foreign currency, and the horizontal axis shows the forward discount or premium on the foreign currency. Parity prevails at point A, for example, where the expected foreign currency depreciation of 2% is just matched by the 2% forward discount on the foreign currency. Point B, however, is a position of disequilibrium because the expected 4% depreciation of the foreign currency exceeds the 3% forward discount on the foreign currency. We would, therefore, expect to see speculators selling the foreign currency forward for home currency, taking a 3% discount in the expectation of covering their commitment with 4% fewer units of HC. A formal statement of the unbiased nature of the forward rate (URF) is that the forward rate should reflect the expected future spot rate on the date of settlement of the forward contract : . f1 = e 1.(1)
where e 1 is the expected future exchange rate at time 1 (units of home currency per unit of foreign currency) and f1 is the forward rate for settlement at time 1. EXHIBIT 2 Relationship Between the Forward Rate and the Future Spot Rate
Expected change In home currency value of Foreign currency (%)
5 4 3 Party line 2 1
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5
2 3 4 forward premium (+) or discount (-) on foreign currency (%)
ILLUSTRATION Using UFR to Forecast the Future $ / DM Spot Rate. If the 90-day forward rate is DM 1 = $ 0.5987, what is the expected value of the DM in 90 days ? Solution. 0.5987. Equation1 can be transformed into the one reflected in the party line appearing in Exhibit 2.6, which is that the forward differential equals the expected change in the exchange rate, by subtracting 1 (eo / eo), from both sides, where eo is the current spot rate (HC per unit of foreign currency ) : f1 eo eo = e 1 eo eo Arbitrage should ensure that the market expects the spot value of the DM in 90 days to be about $
It should be noted that market efficiency requires that people process information and form reasonable expectations; it does not require that f1 = e1. Market efficiency allows for the possibility that risk-averse investors will demand a risk premium on forward contracts, much the same as they demand compensation for bearing the risk of investing in stocks. In this case, the forward rate will not reflect exclusively the expectation of the future spot rate. The principal argument against the existence of a risk premium is that currency risk is largely diversifiable. If foreign exchange risk can diversified away, no risk premium need be paid for holding a forward contract; the forward rate and
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expected future spot rate will be approximately equal. Ultimately, therefore, the unbiased nature of forward rates is an empirical, and not a theoretical, issue. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY: As noted in the previous section, the movement of funds between two currencies to take advantage of interest rate differentials is also a major determinant of the spread between forward and spot rates. In fact, the forward discount or premium is closely related to the interest differential between the two currencies. According to interest rate parity theory, the currency of the country with a lower interest rate should be at a forward premium in terms of the currency of the country with the higher rate. More specifically, in an efficient market with no transaction costs, the interest differential should be (approximately) equal to the forward differential. When this condition is met, the forward rate is said to be at interest parity, and equilibrium prevails in the money markets. Interest parity ensures that the return on a hedged (or covered ) foreign investment will just equal the domestic interest rate on investments of identical risk, thereby eliminating the possibility of having a money machine. When this condition holds, the covered interest differential the difference between the domestic interest rate and the hedge foreign rate is zero. If the covered interest differential between two money markets is nonzero, there is an arbitrage incentive to move money from one market to the other.
Futures Markets and the Use of Futures for Hedging: Hedging Using Futures A company that knows that it is due to sell an asset at a particular time in the future can hedge by taking a short futures position. This is known as a short hedge. If the price of the asset goes down, the company does not fare will on the sale of the asset but makes a gain on the short futures position. IF the price of the asset goes up, the company gains on the short futures position. IF the price of the asset goes up, the company gains from the sale of the asset but takes a loss on the futures position. Similarly, a company that knows that it is due to buy an asset in the future can hedge by taking a long futures position. This is known as a long hedge. It is important to recognize that futures hedging does not necessarily improve the overall financial outcome. In fact, we can expect a futures hedge to make the outcome worse roughly 50% of the time. What the futures hedges does do is reduce risk by making the outcome more certain. There are a number of reasons why hedging using futures contracts words less than perfectly in practice. 1. 2. 3. The asset whose price is to be hedged may not be exactly the same as the asset underlying the futures contract. The hedger may be uncertain as to the exact date when the asset will be bought or sold. The hedge may require the futures contract to be closed out well before its expiration date. These problems give rise to what is termed basis risk. Basic Risk The basis in a hedging situation is defined as follows: basis = spot price of asset to be hedged futures price of contract used If the asset to be hedged and the asset underlying the futures contract are the same, the basis should be zero at the expiration of the futures contract. Prior to expiration, as shown in Table 2.2 and illustrated in Figure 2.1, the basis may be positive or negative. When the spot price increases by more than the futures price, the basis increases. This is referred to as a strengthening of the basis. When the futures price increases by more than the spot price, the basis declines. This is referred to as a weakening of the basis.
Tax Shield Education Centre To examine the nature of basis risk we use the following notation: S 1 : spot price at time t 1 S 2 : spot price at time t 2 F 1 : futures price at time t 1 F 2 : futures price at time t 2 b 1 : basis at time t 1 b 2 : basis at time t 2
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We will assume that a hedge is put in place at time t 1 and closed out at time t 2 . As an example we consider the case where the spot and futures price at the time the hedge is initiated are $2.50 and $2.20, respectively, and that at the time the hedge is closed out they are $2.00 and $1.90, respectively. This means that S 1 = 2.50, F 1 = 2.20, S 2 = 2.00, and F 2 = 1.90. From the definition of the basis, b1 = S1 F1 b2 = S2 F2 In our example, b 1 = 0.30 and b 2 = 0.10. Consider first the situation of a hedger who knows that the asset will be sold at time t 2 and takes a short futures position at time t 1 . The price realized for the asset is S 2 and the profit on the futures position is F 1 F 2 . The effective price that is obtained for the asset with hedging is therefore. [S 2 + F 1 F 2 = F 1 + b 2 ] In our example, this is $2.30. The value of F 1 is known at time t 1 . If b 2 were also known at this time, a perfect hedge (i.e., a hedge eliminating all uncertainty about the price obtained) would result. The hedging risk is the uncertainty associated with b 2 . This is known as basis risk. Consider next a situation where a company knows that it will buy the asset at time t 2 and initiates a long hedge at time t 1 . The price paid for the asset is S 2 and the loss on the futures position is F 1 F 2 . The effective price that is paid with hedging is therefore S2 + F1 F2 = F1 + b2 This is the same expression as before; it is $2.30 in the example. The value of F 1 is known at time t 1 and the term b 2 represents basis risk. For investment assets such as currencies, stock indices, gold, and silver, the basis risk tends to be fairly small. This is because, as we will see in Chapter 3, arbitrage arguments lead to a well-defined relationship between the futures price and the spot price of an investment asset. The basis risk for an investment asset arises mainly from uncertainty as to the level of the risk-free interest rate and the assets yield in the future. In the case of commodity such as oil, corn, or copper, imbalances between supply and demand and the difficulties sometimes associated with storing the commodity can lead to large variations in the basis and therefore a much higher basis risk. The asset that gives rise to the hedgers exposure is sometimes different from the asset underlying the hedge. The basis risk is then usually greater. Define S* 2 as the price of the asset underlying the futures contract at time t 2. As before, S 2 is the price of the asset being hedged at time t 2 . By hedging, a company ensures that the price that will be paid (or received) for the asset is S2 + F1 F2 This can be written F 1 + (S* 2 F 2 ) + (S 2 S* 2 ) The terms S* 2 F 2 and S 2 S* 2 represent the two components of the basis. The S* 2 F 2 term is the basis that would exist if the asset being hedged were the same as the asset underlying the futures contract. The S 2 S* 2 term is the basis arising from the difference between the two assets.
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Note that basis risk can lead to an improvement or a worsening of a hedgers position. Consider a short hedge. If the basis strengthens unexpectedly, the hedgers position improves, whereas if the basis weakens unexpectedly, the hedgers position worsens. For a long hedge, the reverse holds. Optimal Hedge Ratio The hedge ratio is the ratio of the size of the position taken in futures contracts to the size of the exposure. Up to now we have always assumed a hedge ratio of 1.0. We now show that if the objective of the hedger is to minimize risk, a hedge ratio of 1.0. is not necessarily optimal. Define: DS: change in spot price, S, during a period of time equal to the life of the hedge. DF: change in futures price, F, during a period of time equal to the life of the hedge S : standard deviation of DS F : standard deviation of DF : coefficient of correlation between DS and DF h: hedge ratio When the hedger is long the asset and short futures, the change in the value of the hedgers position during the life of the hedge is DS hDF For a long hedge it is hDF DS In either case the variance, v, of the change in value of the hedged position is given by v+ so that jv = 2 h jh
2 2 S
+ h2
2h S
2 S
Setting this equal to zero, and noting that is positive, we see that the value of h that minimizes the variance is S h = (2.1) F The optional hedge ratio is therefore the product of the coefficient of correlation between DS and DF and the ratio of the standard deviation of DS to the standard deviation of DF. Figure 2.2 shows how the variance of the value of the hedgers position depends on the hedge ratio chosen. If = 1 and F = S , the optional hedge ratio, h, is 1.0. This is to be expected since in this case the futures price mirrors the spot price perfectly. If = 1 and F = 2 S , the optimal hedge ratio h is 0.5. This result is also as expected since in this case the futures price always changes by twice as much as the spot price.
Example A company knows that it will buy 1 million gallons of jet fuel in three months. The standard deviation of the change in the price per gallon of jet fuel over a three-month period is calculated as 0.032. The company chooses to hedge by buying futures contracts on heating oil. The standard deviation of the change
Tax Shield Education Centre Variance of position
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Hedge ratio, h
Dependence of variance of hedgers position on hedge ratio. in the futures price over three-month period is 0.040 and the coefficient of correlation between the three-month change in the price of jet fuel and the three-month change in the futures price is 0.8. The optimal hedge ratio is therefore 0,032 0.8 x = 0.64 0.040 One heating oil futures contract is on 42,000 gallons. The company should therefore buy 1,000,000 0.64 x = 15.2 42,000 contracts. Rounding to the nearest whole number 15 contracts are required. Rolling the Hedge Forward Sometimes, the expiration date of the hedge is later than the delivery dates of all the futures contracts that can be used. The hedge must then roll the hedge forward. This involves closing out one futures contact and taking the same position in a futures contract with a later delivery date. Hedges can be rolled forward many times. Consider a company that wishes to use a short hedge to reduce the risk associated with the price to be received for an asset at time T. If there are futures contacts 1,2,3,, n (not all necessarily in existence at the present time) with progressively later delivery dates, the company can use the following strategy: Time t 1 : short futures contract 1 Time t 2 : close out futures contract 1 short futures contract 2 Time t 3 : close out futures contract 2 short futures contract 3 . . Time t n : close out futures contract n 1 short futures contract n Time T: close out futures contract n In this strategy there are n basis risks or sources of uncertainty. At time T there is uncertainty about the difference between the futures price for contract n and the spot price of the asset being hedged. In addition, on each of the n 1 occasions when the hedge is rolled forward, there is uncertainty about the difference between the futures price for the contract being closed out and the futures price for the new contract being entered into. (We will refer to the latter as the rollover basis.) In many situations the hedger has some flexibility on the exact time when a switch is made from one contract to the next. This can be used to reduce the rollover basis risk. For
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example, if the rollover basis is unattractive at the beginning of the period during which the rollover must be made, the hedger can delay the rollover in the hope that the rollover basis will improve. Short Selling Some of the arbitrage strategies presented in this chapter involve short selling. This is a trading strategy that yields a profit when the price of a security goes down and a loss when it goes up. It involves selling securities that are not owner and buying them back later. To explain the mechanics a short selling, we suppose that an investor contacts a broker to short 500 IBM shares. The broker immediately borrows 500 IBM shares from another client and sells them in the open market in the usual way, depositing the sale proceeds to the investors account. Providing there as shares that can be borrowed, the investor can continue to maintain the short position for as long as desired. At some stage, however the investor will choose to instruct the broker to close out the position. The broker then uses funds in the investors account to purchase 500 IBM shares and replaces them in the account of the client from which the shares were borrowed. The investor makes a profit if the stock price has declines and a loss if it has risen. If at any time while the contract is open, the broker runs out of shares to borrow, the investor is what is known as short-squeezed and must close out the position immediately even though he or she may not be ready to do so. Regulators currently only allow shares to be sold on an uptick, that is, when the most recent movement in the price of the security was an increase. A broker requires significant initial margins from clients with short positions, and as with futures contracts, if there are adverse movements (i.e., increases) in the price of the security, additional margin may be required. The proceeds of the initial sales of the security, additional margin may be required. The priceeds of the initial sales of the security normally form part of the initial margin requirement. Some brokers pay interest on margin accounts, and marketable securities such as Treasury bills can be deposited with a broker to meet initial margin requirements. As in the case of futures contracts, the margin does not therefore represent a real cost. Forward and Futures Contracts on Currencies We now move on to consider forward and futures contracts on foreign currencies. The variable, S, is the current price in dollars of one unit of the foreign currency; K is the delivery price agreed to in the forward contract. A foreign currency has the property that the holder of the currency can earn interest at the risk-free interest rate prevailing in the foreign country. (For example r f as the value of this foreign risk-free interest rate with continuous compounding. The two portfolios that enable us to price a forward contract on a foreign currency are Portfolio A : one long forward contract plus an amount of cash equal to Ke Portfolio B : an amount e r f (Tt) of the foreign currency
r(T t)
Both portfolios will become worth the same as one unit of the foreign currency at time. T. They must therefore be equally valuable at time t. Hence f + Ker (Tt) = Se or f + Serf (Tt) = Ke r(Tt) The forward price (or forward exchange rate), F, is the value of K that makes f = 0 in equation (3.13). Hence F = Se(rrf)(T-t) This is the well-known interest rate parity relationship from the field of international finance. From the discussion earlier in this chapter, F is, to a reasonable approximation, also the futures price. Swaps Swaps are private agreements between two companies to exchange cash flows in the futures according to a prearranged formula. They can be regarded as portfolios of forward contracts. The study of swaps is therefore a natural extension of the study of forward and futures contracts.
r (Tt) f
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The first swap contracts were negotiated in 1981. Since then, the market has grown very rapidly. Hundreds of billions of dollars of contracts are currently negotiated each year. In this chapter we discuss how swaps are designed, how they are used, and how they can be valued. We also consider briefly the nature of the credit risk facing financial institutions when they trade swaps and other similar financial contracts. The last topic is covered in more detail in Chapter 20. Mechanics of Interest Rate Swaps The most common type of swap is a plain vanilla interest rate swap. In this one party, B, agrees to pay to the other party, A, cash flows equal to interest at a predetermined fixed rate on a notional principal for a number of years. At the same time, party A agrees to pay party B cash flows equal to interest at a floating rate on the same notional principal for the same period of time. The currencies of the two sets of interest cash flows are the same. The life of the swap can range from two years to over 15 years. London Interbank Offer Rate The floating rate in many interest rate swap agreements is the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR). LIBOR is the rate of interest offered by banks on deposits from other banks in Eurocurrency markets. One-month LIBOR is the rate offered on one-month deposits, three-month LIBOR is the rate offered on three-month deposits, and so on. LIBOR rates are determined by trading between banks and change continuously as economic conditions change. Just as prime is often the reference rate of interest for floating-rate loans in the domestic financial market, LIBOR is frequently rate of interest for loans in international financial markets. To understand how it is used, consider a loan where the rate of interest is specified as sixmonth LIBOR plus 0.5% per annum. The life of the loan is divided into six-month LIBOR rate at the beginning of the period. Interest is paid at the end of the period. As mentioned in Section 4.5, three-month LIBOR is the rate of interest underlying the very popular Eurodollar futures contract that trades on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
PROBLEMS 1. Following are the quotes by a Banker at Bombay. Identify whether the quote is a direct or indirect quote. Compute the direct quote for indirect quote and vice versa. a. b. c. d. e. 2. 1$ Rs.100 Rs.100 Rs.100 = Rs.31.50 = 2.0202 = DM 5.2630 = US $ 3.1750 = Rs.0.3199.
A Bank quoted the following rates for US $ Spot : 32.70 / 72 Forward premia 1 month 3 / 0 2 month 10 / 3 3 month 18 / 9 6 month 66 / 55 Calculate the forward rates. Following are the bid-ask spread and middle rates for various currencies as quoted by a Banker. Find the bid / ask rates. a. 0.43 ; Rs.22.195 b. Rs.1.01 ; Rs.51.025 c. 0.32 ; Rs.32.86 d. 0.90 ; Rs.22.89 e. Rs.0.18 ; Rs.4.62 Explain the terms European Quotes, American Quotes, Direct Quotes, Indirect Quotes. On a particular day at 11.00 a.m. the following DM / $ spot quote is obtained from a bank 1.6225 / 35 a. Explain this quotation b. compute the implied inverse quote $ / DM c. Another bank quotes $ / DM 0.6154 / 59. Is there an arbitrage opportunity ? If so, how would it work ?
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Tax Shield Education Centre 5. The following quotes are obtained from two banks : FFr / $ Spot 4.9570 / 80 4.9578 / 90 a. Is there an arbitrage opportunity ? b. What kind of a market will result ? c. What might be the reasons of this ?
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The buying rate for SFr spot in New York is $ 0.5910. A corporate treasurer is going to buy SFr in Zurich at SFr / $ 1.6650 and sell them in New York. Will he make a profit ? If yes, then how much ? In London a dealer quotes : DM / Spot 3.5250 / 55 / Spot 180.80 / 181.30 a. b. What do you expect the / DM rate to be in Frankfurt ? Suppose that in Frankfurt you get a quote / DM opportunity ? Spot 51.1530 / 51.2550, is there an arbitrage
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The following quotes are obtained in New York : $ / = 1.5275 / 85 SFr / $ = 1.5530 / 35 a. What rates do you expect for SFr / spot in London ? b. If a London bank quotes 2.3730 / 40, can you make arbitrage points ? If so, then how ? The following quotes are obtained in New York : DM / $ Spot : 1.5880 / 90 1 month forward : 10/5 2 month forward : 20 / 10 3 month forward : 30 / 15 Calculate the outright forward rates.
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The following quotes are available in Amsterdam : $ / DG Spot : 0.5875 / 85 1 month : 12 / 18 2 month : 15 / 25 3 month : 20 / 30 Calculate the outright forwards.
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A bank is quoting the following rates : DM / $ Spot : 1.5975 / 80 2 month : 20 / 10 3 month : 25 / 15 Saudi Riyals / $ Spot : 3.7550 / 60 2 month : 20 / 40 3 month : 30 / 50 A firm wishes to buy Riyals against DM 3 month forward with an option with an option over the third month. What rate will the bank quote ?
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The following quotes are available in London : FFr / Spot : 8.0375 / 85 Spot / Next : 7 / 12 Today is Monday. Calculate the rate for delivery on Thursday. Explain your calculations.
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On December 27, 1992 a customer requested a bank to remit DG 250,000 to Holland in payment of import of diamonds under an irrevocable LC. However due to bank strikes, the bank could effect the remittance only on January 3, 1993. The inter bank market rates were as follows :
Tax Shield Education Centre December 27 Bombay London DG / $ / Rs. : 3.15 3.10 $ / : 1.7250 / 60 3.9575 / 90 January 3 3.12 3.07 1.7175 / 85 3.9380 / 90
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The bank wishes to retain an exchange margin of 0.125%. How much does the customer stand to gain or loss due to the delay ? 14. Electronics Corporation Ltd., your customers, have imported 5,000 cartridges at a landed cost in Bombay, of US $ 20 each. They have the choice of paying for the goods immediately or in three months time. They have a clean overdraft limit with you where 18% p.a. rate of interest is charged. Calculate which of the following methods would be cheaper to your customer. a. b. Pay in three months time with interest at 15% and cover the exchange risk forward for three months. Settle now at the current spot rate and pay interest to the overdraft for three months. The rates are as follows : Bombay Rs. / $ Spot : 31.25 31.55 3 month swap : 25 / 35 (Hint : For the exercise three months should be taken as a quarter year, exchange commission is to be ignored.)
Forwards, Swaps and Interest Parity 1. A Banker gave the following quotes Rs. / $ 3m Forward 33.70 / 90 55 / 45
If the 3m interest for Rupee is 90% what should be the 3 months rate for US $ so as to ensure that there is no scope for arbitrage. 2. The current quote for Re. / $ is as under Rs. / $ 33.10 / 30 3m Forward 10 / 20 If the 3m borrowing and investing rates are 8% and 6% respectively for rupee deposits what should be the overseas rates so as to ensure absence of arbitrage. Following are the rates quoted at Mumbai for British Pound Rs. / 52.60 / 70 3m Forward 20 / 30 6m Forward 50 / 75 Interest Rates are as under Rs. 3m 8% 5% 6m 10% 8% Verify whether there is any scope for covered interest arbitrage if you borrow rupees. Following is the data pertaining to Spot Rate. Forward Rate and Money Market Rates. Compute the missing values if the covered interest parity holds good. Spot Rate Rs. / $ a. 33.50 3m Forward Rate Rs. / $ 33.80 Interest Rate US $ Interest Rate Rs. 6%
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Tax Shield Education Centre b. c. d. 5. 33.70 33.50 33.40 33.80 6% 4% 4% 6% 6%
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Following are the rates quoted by a Banker for various currencies compute the value of ts za. Rs. / DM 23.40 / 80 b. Rs. / FFr 6.90 / 90 c. Re / 52.60 / 53.70 (Note : Give answers upto five decimals) The cross currency rates are as under DM / US $ 1.4325 / 35 3m Forward 15 / 25 The Euro DM rates are 6-6.5 and the Euro $ rates are at 4-4.5%. Verify whether there is any scope for arbitrage by showing calculations. Using the data in the above problem computed the limits for the forward quotes. Suppose the spot / $ Rate is 120 The Euro Yen 3m interest rate is 8% and Euro Dollar 3m Interest rate is 12%. Ignore transaction cost. a. What should be the / $ 3m forward rate ? b. Will the Yen be at a premium or discount ? c. How much is the annualized premium / discount ? The term structure of interest rates for the DM and the dollar is flat for maturities up to one year. The DM rate is 5% and the dollar rate is 9%. a. The following matrix shows various combinations of DM / $ spot rate and contract prices in a set of two month forward contracts to buy dollars against DM. Fill in the present values of the forward contracts. Contract Price 1.50 1.75 2.00 Spot 1.50 1.75 2.00 b. repeat the exercise with interest rates reversed. Consider the following data : $ / spot : 1.7500 / 10 3 month forward : 1.7380 / 1.7400 3 month eurodollar : 8.00 / 8.20 % p.a. 3 month enrosterling : 10.50 / 11.00 % p.a. a. b. c. Check whether there is a covered interest arbitrage opportunity. A British firm has a 3 month dollar receivable. How should it hedge ? A US firm has a 3 month sterling payable. How should it hedge ?
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Suppose a month ago you entered into a 3 month forward contract to purchase US $ 100,000 against rupee at the then 3 month forward rate of Rs.33.00 per dollar. The two month forward rate today is Rs.34.50. The seller wants to mark the contract to market i.e., replace the contract rate of 33.00 by the current forward rate for the same maturity. Rupee interest rate is 18% p.a. a. Does this change in the terms of the contract warrant payment by one party to another ? From whom to whom? How much ? b. Will both parties be indifferent if the required payment if any is effected ? For the purpose of this question and questions 7 10, ignore the fact that there are exchange controls in India. Assume that the Indian rupee is freely convertible on both current and capital accounts. Also, assume that you are free to borrow in any currency in any market and that there are active spot and forward markets accessible to all parties in rupee against any currency. The present rates are : Rs. / DM spot : 24.8750 / 25.1250 3 month forward : 25.6195 / 25.9805 3 month rupee interest rates : 17.50 / 18.50 3 month DM interest rates : 5.75 / 6.25 determine whether there is a covered interest arbitrage opportunity. An Indian firm has a 3 month DM receivable, determine the optimal method of hedging it.
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Tax Shield Education Centre 14. 15. 16. 17.
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An Indian firm needs DM right now for 3 months. What alternatives does to acquire them without incurring exchange risk ? A German firm has a 3 month rupee payable. How should it hedge ? A German firm needs rupees right now. How should it acquire them ? A trader at a major bank in UK observes the following rates in the market : FFr / DM spot : 3.5060 / 3.5080 1 year forward : 3.5765 / 3.5770 FFr 1 year interest rate : 8% DM 1 year interest rate : 6% The trader expects the FFr interest rate to rise to 10% in one months time. Further, he expects the DM rates to hold steady. a. What are the different ways the trader can exploit this forecast ? b. What are the risks associated with each ? A trader in New York observes the following rates : DM / $ spot : 1.6005 / 15 6 month forward : 320 / 315 6 month dollar rate : 12% 6 month DM rate : 8% The trader expects the Bundesbank to tighten monetary policy over the next three months. These months from now she expects the DM rate to rise to 9% and the dollar rate to fall to 11%. How can she profit from this forecast ? What are the risks ?
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The central bank of Shangri La makes a forward market in its current Rupyaka. The spot $ / Rupyaka rate is 2.10 / 30 and one year forward is 2.35 / 45. The one year Eurodollar interest rates are being quoted at 8 - 8 . A bank trader wishes to oblige a borrower who wants a one year (360 days) Eurorupyaka loan of 1 million. Assuming no default risk, what is the minimum interest rate the trade should charge ? A customer wishes to do a swap deal with a bank in which he buys US$ spot against escudo and sell US$ 3 months forward against escudo. There are no active forward markets in escudo. However there is fairly active Eurodeposit market. The rates are : Escudo / $ spot : 15.6500 / 20 3 month Euro$ rates : 6.25 / 6.50 3 month Euroescudo rates : 14.50 / 15.00. What swap rate should the bank quote to break-even on the transaction ? Currency and Interest Rate Futures
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The following is an extract from futures price quotations in a financial newspaper. Explain the various terms and numbers in the table. British Pounds (IMM) : 62,500 pounds; $ per pound March 1.5060 1.5068 1.5053 1.5055 -0.0007 3454 June 1.4990 1.5020 1.4990 1.5010 -0.0006 5450 September 1.4920 1.4945 1.4910 1.4935 +0.0005 7864 On May 8, you took a long position in one June IMM WSFr contract at an opening price of $0.6350. The initial margin was #1500 and the maintenance margin was $1200. The settlement prices for May 8, 9, 10 were $0.6280, $0.6355. On May 11 you closed out the position at $0.6365. Compute the cash flows on your account assuming that the opening balance was $1500 and there were no cash additions or withdrawals other than gains and losses from your futures position and any additional variation margin. Today is March 1. A UK firm is planning to import chemicals worth $6 million from US. The payment is due on June 1. The spot $ / rate is 1.5765 and the three month forward rate is 1.5685. LIFFE $ / futures are trading at 1.5695. Explain how the firm can hedge its payable by using futures. On June 1 the $ / spot rate turns out to be 1.5875 and June futures price 1.5850. Explain why the futures hedge did not turn out to be perfect hedge. In retrospect, would a forward hedge have been better ? A firm in Luxembourg makes fine crystal. On August 28 it has shipped an order worth $2 million to a US customer. The payment is due 3 months from that date. The spot LUFr / $ rate is 32.6500 and the 3 month forward rate is 32.6340. it decides to hedge using $ / DM futures on IMM the spot DM / $ rate is 1.6050 and December futures are
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trading at 0.6310 ($ / DM). Explain how the hedge is executed. On November 28, the spot LUFr / $ rate turns out to be 32.5225 and the price of December DM futures is 0.6295. Compute the firms gains and losses. 5. On a certain day in February a speculator observes the following prices in the foreign exchange and currency futures markets : $ / spot : 1.6465 March futures : 1.6425 September futures : 1.6250 December futures : 1.6130 The speculator thinks that the markets are overestimating the weakness of sterling against the dollar. How can she act on this view to make a profit ? Under what circumstances do her actions lead to a loss ? On April 14, 1992 the following prices were observed on the IMM and the New York interbank foreign exchange market : $ / DM $/ Spot 0.6343 0.0080 Futures : June 0.6380 0.0081 September 0.6460 0.0082 December 0.6510 0.0084 March 93 0.6510 0.0084 What do these prices imply regarding markets long-term view of DMs prospects against the Yen ? A speculator thinks otherwise viz. he thinks the DM is going to move in the opposite direction against the Yen. How can he profit from his forecast using a spread trading strategy ? 7. On January 24, the following prices are observed : $/ $ / Can$ Spot 1.7025 0.9010 Futures March 1.6990 0.9030 June 1.6935 0.9070 September 1.6905 0.9105 A speculator believes that the market is underestimating the weakness of sterling because he thinks that the UK trade balance figures due in the first week of July will be far worse than what the market is expecting. He holds no particular views regarding how the sterling and the Canadian dollar will move against the US dollar. How can he exploit this forecase by (a) an open position trading and (b) a spread trade ? On April 17, 1992, a speculator observed the following spot and sutures $ / DM prices : Spot : 0.6520 June : 0.6560 September : 0.6610 December ; 0.6690 March 93 : 0.6820 Most opinion pools about the US presidential election were predicting a swing for Mr. Clinton and the forex marks were said to have factored Mr. Bushs defeat into the $ / DM rates. The speculator thought that the pools were off the mark and Mr. Bush would rebound in October and the dollar would surge upwards after the election results are in, November. She did not want to take undue risks but did wish to profit from her forecast. How would she go about it ? 9. OJ Limited is a supplier of leather goods to retailers in the UK and other western European countries. The company is considering entering into a joint venture with a manufacturer in South America. The two companies will each own 50% of the limited liability company JV (SA) and will share profits equally. 450,000 of the initial capital is being provided by OJ Limited, and the equivalent in South American dollars (SA$) is being provided by the foreign partner. The managers of the joint venture expect the following net operating cash flows which are in nominal terms : SA$ 000 Year 1 4,250 Forward rates of exchange to the Sterling 10
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Tax Shield Education Centre Year 2 Year 3 6,500 8,350 15 21
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For tax reasons JV (SA), the company to be formed specifically for the joint venture, will be registered in South America. Ignore taxation in your calculations. (a) Assume you are a financial advisor retained by OJ Limited to advise on the proposed joint venture. REQUIREMENTS : (i) Calculate the NPV of the project under the two assumptions explained below. Use a discount rate of 16% for both assumptions.
Assumption 1 The South American country has exchange controls which prohibit the payment of dividends above 50% of the annual cash flows for the first three years of the project. The accumulated balance can be repatriated at the end of the third year. Assumption 2 The government of the South American country is considering removing exchange controls and restriction on repatriation of profits. If this happens all cash flows will be distributed as dividends to the partner companies at the end of each year. (ii) Comment briefly on whether or not the joint ventures should proceed based solely on these calculations. SFM 20 May 1997
PORTFOLIO: Introduction
MANAGING RISKS
Portfolio theory is based on a simple but fundamental insights into investor behaviour. These insights are put into a coherent framework for analysis and decision-making. In vestment decisions, an investor may be an individual or a firm wants to get answers to the following questions : which shares are to be selected and why ? How much to be invested in each type ? How to minimise risk ? One need to resolve all these and similar issues in order to maximise return and minimise risk. Modern portfolio theory helps in this respect. We discuss in brief portfolio theory in this Section. Similarly, individuals and firms face financial risks due to changes in exchange rates, interest rates and stock market prices. Financial instruments have been developed for the management of such risks. These instruments, or derivatives, are risk managements tools. They do not have any value of their own. But they derive
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the value from the underlying asset which may be shares, bonds or anything. Hence the name derivatives. We discuss them in brief in Section II. Portfolio Theory Portfolios H.M. Markowitz1 did the pioneering work no portfolio theory. The portfolio theory is concerned with establishing guidelines for building up a portfolio of stocks and shares, or a portfolio of projects. An individual, or a firm may be interested in an investment decision. The same theory applies to both companies, mutual fund and stock market investors with capital projects to invest in. Each one of them needs to know which shares / projects to select and how much to be invested in each and how to minimise the risk. The diversification approach is simply to follow the well-known adage : do not keep all your eggs in one basket. The theory, therefore, focuses on fundamental insights into the investor behavior and puts these insights into a coherent framework for rational analysis and decision making such that benefits from the decisions can be maximised, or risk minimised. Various aspects of the theory are discussed in step by step for easy understanding of the underlying principles involved. The next question is ; what is a portfolio ? A portfolio is the combination of different investments that constitute an investors total holding. It may represent an investment in stocks and shares or investments in capital projects. Such investment may be made by an individual, a company, an investment banker or a mutual fund. One of the features of the portfolio theory is that an investor should analyse the portfolio in its entirety and not merely one or two in isolation. Illustration:1 Investor A Shares of UTI Ltd. Shares of IDBI Shares of TISCO Shares of Hindustan Lever Shares of Tata Tea Total fund invested 20% 25% 30% 20% 5% 100% Shares of ABC Ltd. Shares of ICICI Shares of UTI Ltd. Investor B 30% 40% 30% . 100%
While As portfolio comprises shares of five companies, that of b comprises shares of three companies only. In each case, the combination of the shares constitutes the portfolio. If A and b are rational investors, they might have adequate thought in selecting the type of share for investment as also the amount of money that has been invested in each type, given the total amount of money available for investment. Determinants of a Portfolio What factors would you take into account in making your investment decisions ? These are as follows : (a) (b) (c) Security : An investor is not prepared to lose money. So, security of investment becomes an important consideration. Here, security stands for maintenance of capital value of the investment, at least in normal term. Return : Expected return may be the dominant consideration. Money put into investments is expected to earn satisfactory rate of return. Satisfactory compatible with safety factor is the normal expectation of an investor. Growth prospects : return from investments should not only be satisfactory but should, over time, grow to keep the investors happy. Similarly, prospects of growth in the value of the investment (i.e. capital gain) is another welcoming feature to an investor. Therefore, the most profitable investment opportunities are likely to be in those businesses / firms with good growth prospects. Liquidity : It refers to convertibility of investments back into cash at short notice. This is more true in case of investments made out of short-term funds. Risk : An investor generally wants to maximise gains from investments with as minimum risk as possible. Here , risk represents variability of expected return from investments. Risk can be reduced by diversification. That is, an investor who puts all his / her money into one type of share risks everything on the fortunes of that investment. A rational approach would be to spread his / her investments into different types such that losses on some may be compensated by gains on others. The risk-return relationship and diversification as a means of reduction of risk are discussed in detail later on.
(d) (e)
Tax Shield Education Centre Expected Return and Risk of Individual Investments
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Investors make their choices based on at least two considerations expected return and riskiness of returns. In other words, when you have to put your money into investment opportunities you will expect them to give a certain return. The expected return of investments is the weighted average of the expected return, weighted by the proportion of total funds invested in each. Illustration:2 Type Return (R) % 20 15 25 Funds invested (proportion) (W) A B C 0.4 0.2 04 1.0 Weighted Average of Return (R x W) % 8 3 10 21
Expected
The risk in an investment, or in a number of investments, is that the actual return is not the same as the expected return it may be higher or lower than the expected one. Thus, variability of returns is the measure of the risk. Standard divination is generally regarded as the best measure of variability or dispersion.1 Illustration:3 Year 1 2 3 4 5 Average return Share D Expected return (%) 13.0 6.5 24.0 5.0 28.5 15.4 Share F Expected return (%) 15 14 17 16 15 15.4
Although the average expected return from both types of investments is the same (15.4%), Share D shows a greater variability of returns and is riskier than Share F. In other words, returns from Share D fluctuates widely from year to year. Variability in returns can be measured as the standard deviation on expected returns. Thus, standard deviation of returns is the measure of the risk. As for example, the standard deviation of returns from Share D is 21% while that from Share F is only 2%. Thus, D is about ten and half times riskier than Share F. Higher the standard deviation the greater the risk and vice versa. When probabilities of actual returns can be estimated, standard deviation as a measure of risk is computed weighted by the estimated probabilities. The expected value of return here is : estimated returns x probabilities of occurrence. The standard deviation is calculated based on the expected value rather than the average rate of return. The following formulae may be used in computing expected return and risk of individual investments. n E(R) = Ri Pi .i = 1 = Expected value of rate of return = The return from outcome i.
. where E(R) Ri
Tax Shield Education Centre Pi .n = Probability of occurrence of I = the number of outcomes.

n
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= variance
(xi x)2 pi .i = 1
where x xi pi n
= expected rate of return = E(R) = rate of return from an investment = probability of occurrence I = the number of outcomes.
Standard deviation (duly weighted by the probability of outcomes) is the measure of the risk. The greater the value of the standard deviation the higher is the risk and vice versa. The variance is the square of standard deviation. Illustration:4 Return from Probability of Expected value Investments (%) occurrence (%) 10 0.3 3.0 8 0.2 1.6 12 0.3 3.6 14 0.2 2.8 1.0 x = 11.0 Return (x) 10 8 12 14 (x-x) -1 -3 +1 +3 (x-x)2 1 9 1 9 p .3 .2 .3 .2 Variance Standard deviation = 4.2 = 2.05% Thus, expected return from investments is 11% with a standard deviation of 2.05%. There is a relation between risk and return. Low risk investment usually gives low returns. High risk investments might give high returns, but with more possibility of disappointing results. So, how does holding a portfolio of investments affect expected returns and risks? We discuss them in the next two sections. Reducing Risk through Diversification : The principle of diversification requires an investor to invest in more then one share/project so that looses in one may be offset by gains in another.1 In this way, a prudent investor may avoid too much risk and may hope that the actual returns from his/her portfolio are much the same as what she/he expected them to be. Earlier, we have considered individual investments in terms of their risk and return. According to portfolio theory this cannot be done. The relationship between the returns from different investments has to be considered to form a portfolio. The relationship can be of three types: a) Positive correlation: When there is positive correlation between investments, if one investment does well (or badly) it is very likely that the other will perform likewise. As for example, if you invest upon the weather condition, you would expect both the companies to perform badly in dry weather. p(x-x)2 0.3 1.8 0.3 1.8 4.2
b) Negative correlation: If one investment does badly the other will do very well and vice versa. As for example, if you invest in the shares of an ice cream company and also in an umbrella-making company, the weather will affect the performance of these two companies differently. c) No correlation: The performance of one investment may be independent of how the other performs. As for example, if you hold shares in a steel company and also in a soap-making company, it is likely that there would be no relationship between the profits and returns from each.
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The above relationships can be measured by coefficient of correlation, r 2. It can be shown that the value of r lies between + 1 (perfect correlation). A figure close to +1 indicates high positive correlation, a figure close to 1, a high negative correlation and a figure of O indicates absence
1 2
Remember the well-known adage again: Do no keep all your eggs in one basket. Co-efficient of correlation r (x,y) is calculated by the formula : xIyI - xI yI rxy = x2I - ) xi)2 n
of correlation. Absence of correlation indicates that the variables are independent of each other. According to portfolio theory, portfolio risk can best be reduced by combining investments with negative correlation. The next preference should be in favour of investments which have no significant correlation. Measuring Expected Return and Risk of the Portfolio Earlier, we have seen how to calculate expected value of rate of return from individual investments. That is E(R) = n Ri PI I= 1 Where E (R) = expected value of rate of return Ri = then return from outcome i pI = probability of occurrence of I n = the number of outcomes. It may be recalled that the accepted rate of return e is the weighted average of returns, weighted by the probability of occurrence. In computing expected rate of turn from a portfolio, we have to consider further the proportion of investment in each type of asset to the total funds employed for the portfolio. For example, if an investor has invested 40% of available fund in say, Share A, and balance 60% in Share B, then the expected return of the portfolio would be: (Expected rate of return from A x 40) + (Expected rate of return from 100 B x 60) 100 Thus, in case of two-asset portfolio, the expected return on the portfolio is given by: E (RP) = E(RA) W1 + E(RB) W2 Where E (RP) = expected return on the portfolio E(RA) = expected return on share A E(RB) = expected return on share B W1 = proportion of investment in share A W2 = 1 W1 = proportion of investment in share B. The individual investment. The portfolio risk may lower than the risk of individual investment. This is due to the effect of diversification. Fig. 68 shows that if investment are made equally in two types of share having negative correlation, portfolio risk can be reduced.
Effect of diversification. In this case, instead of putting the entire sums of money either in A or in B, if they are equally invested into A and B, the relative risk of the portfolio will be reduced.
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The relationship between the returns of two investments (say A and B), or co-variance, can be measured as follows: COV (A,B) = r (A,B) A B Where r (A,B) = coefficient correlation between A and B A = standard deviation of returns from A B = standard deviation of returns from B or r, (A,B) = COV (A,B) A B or r, (A,B) = COV (A,B) var(A)
var (B)
When the variables are independent, both r (A,B) and cov (A,B) will be O. Covariance is the deviations of returns from expected returns weighted by probability of occurrence. Thus: COV (A,B) n pi [RA E(RA)] [RB E(RB)] I=1 Where pi = probability of occurrence E(RA) = expected return from A E(RB) = expected return from B RA = return from A RB = return from B. Assuming a two-asset portfolio, its standard deviation, p, can be measured as follows: p = n n W1 W2 COV (A,B)
A=1=1
Where n = no. of securities in the portfolio W1 = proportion of fund invested in A W2 = 1 W1 = proportion of fund invested in B COV (A,B) = covariance between possible returns of A and B. The two s mean that we consider the covariance for all possible pairwise combinations of returns of A and B. Illustration:5 State Probability Return (%) A Share B Share Recession 0.4 20 -10 Boom 0.6 5 30 Assuming that you invest equal amount in A and B, calculate : a) Expected rate of return of individual shares and their risks; b) Expected rate of return of the portfolio and relationship (R) between returns of A and B and comment on the results of the portfolio below the risk of individual securities comprising the portfolio. But there is always a minimum level of risk below which one cannot reach through diversification. We will explain later on the reason for this position
Investors Preferences An insight into investor-behavior is also necessary in portfolio management. An investor generally chooses a portfolio that helps him or her to make a satisfactory balance between the expected returns from the portfolio and the risk involved. An average investor wants to maximize risk. For example, if two portfolios have identical expected returns, an investor would choose that portfolio which has a lower risk. On the other hand, when two portfolios have identical risks, an investor would go for the one which has a higher expected return.
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Portfolio C will be preferred to portfolio D because it offers a higher expected rate of return for the same degree of risk. Likewise, portfolio E will be preferred to D because it will give same expected return for lower risk. C and E are said to dominate portfolio D. This is called dominance notion which means that securities ten to dominate individual securities due to reduction of risk obtainable through diversification. The above principle may not have a universal application. In reality the selection of the portfolio will also depend upon the risk perception of the investors. It may vary from person to person. For example, an investor may be prepared to accept a greater risk for the possibility of a greater expected return. The curve XX in Fig. 69 is an investor C, E, F, G and H are all just as good as each other and all of them are better than portfolio D. Earlier, we have seen that standard deviation of expected returns is the measure of portfolio risk. Portfolio D will, therefore, be dis-preferred on the grounds of mean variance inefficiency.
Here we compare two indifference curves, MM and NN, from the standpoint of an investor. An investor will prefer combinations of return and risk on indifference curve MM to those on curve NN because MM will give higher returns to the investor for the same degree of risk. For the same risk, 1, the return on curve MM is R2 compared to R1 in curve NN. Efficient Portfolios According to portfolio theory, if we draw a graph to show the expected return and the risk of all possible portfolios of investments, it will show an egg-shaped cluster of points on a scatter graph as shown below
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A free hand curve can be drawn so that portfolios with minimum expected returns, corresponding to a given degree of risk, can be joined with portfolios with maximum expected rates of return associated with their risk. The free hand curve that joins all these dots in the graph is called the efficient set or the efficient frontier. Portfolios on this efficient frontier are called efficient portfolios. The graph also shows a minimum variance portfolio indicating minimum expected return, R1, with minimum degree of risk, 1. If we show an investors indifference curve on the efficient frontier curve we get an optimum portfolio graph as shown below.
The optimum portfolio or portfolios to select is one when an indifference curve touches the efficient frontier of portfolios at a tangent. In Fig portfolio D, where indifference curve B touches the efficient frontier at a tangent, is the optimum portfolio. Any portfolio on an indifference curve to the right of curve B, such as one on curve C, would be worse than portfolio D. Thus, if we consider portfolios on the efficient frontier, no portfolio is dominated by any other. That is why, consideration of an efficient frontier becomes paramount in optimum portfolio selection. Portfolio selection with risk-free investments Our earlier analysis is based on the assumption that all investments or securities are risky, i.e. >O. But in reality, there are some securities, say government bound, treasury bills, which are absolutely risk-free, i.e., actual return does not vary from the expected return ( = 0). Risk-free security yields a fixed return. The key issue is whether combining risk-free investments with risky investments in a portfolio results in a change in the efficient frontier or optimum portfolio. What is the impact of combining risk-free investments with risky investments on the efficient frontier? Which risky portfolio from the efficient set of risky portfolios would an investor choose to combine with the risk-free investment? Illustration:6 Risk-free return (Rf) f (since return will not fluctuate) Expected return from the risky portfolio (D) D 10% 0 25% 20%
Assuming that an investor decides to invest 30% in Rf and 70% in D, what will be the expected rate of return and risk from the portfolio that comprises Rf (30%) and D (70%) ?
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If we introduce a risk-free investment into the analysis we find that the old efficient frontier is suspended (Fig. 73) The straight line RfADF is drawn at a tangent to the efficient frontier and cuts the yaxis at R f, risk-free rate of return. This line has now become a new efficient frontier and is known as Capital Market Line (CML). Any portfolio which is above the CML is efficient and any portfolio which is below the CML is inefficient. The CML equation is: E(Rp) = Rf + b p Where E(Rp) = expected return from the portfolio Rf = risk-free rate of return p = portfolio standard deviation difference between market portfolio rate and risk-free rate b= difference between market portfolio s.d. and risk-free portfolio s.d. Illustration:7 Portfolio A B C Expected return (%) 22 32 21 Portfolio risk (%) 14.0 12.0 6.0
Portfolio A is a mixture of the investments in portfolio D and risk-free investments. An investor will prefer A to B because in case of A higher return is expected with the same degree of risk. Portfolio D is the only portfolio comprising entirely of risky investments that a rational investor should want to hold. All other risky investments are inefficient because they are below the CML. Since all investors would like to hold portfolio D, portfolio D becomes the market portfolio. A market portfolio is that portfolio at least a proportion of which is held by each investor. We discuss the return on market portfolio in selection 15.11. Diversification and total risk analysis We have seen earlier that diversification reduces risk. But can diversification eliminate the risk completely ? If not why not? The riskiness of each investment opportunity can be divided into two componentsthe market related risk which cannot be diversified away at all and which is called systematic or non-diversifiable risk and the firm or industry-related risk which can be diversified and is called diversifiable or unsystematic risk. Thus Total risk = Systematic risk + Unsystematic risk (non-diversiable) (unavoidable) market related (diversifiable) avoidable firm/industry related
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Fig. 74 shows that, in general, as the number of securities in a portfolio increases, say up to 25 to 30, the diversification reduces the portfolio risk rapidly. Thereafter, the marginal reduction to portfolio risk of any further diversification becomes very small. In general, a portfolio decision is taken in the light of individual securitys marginal impact on risk of the portfolio. Thus, a diversified portfolio of about 25 securities selected from different industries may represent a market portfolio. As for example, consider the Bombay Stock exchange Sensex index which comprises only 30 securities. Accordingly, increasing the number of securities may not necessarily improve diversification in an attempt to reduce risk substantially. The question is why ? In order to get the answer, we have to analyse the two components of the total risk. Let us first talk about the unsystematic risk which is diversifiable or avoidable. This portion of the risk is regarded as the extent of variability in the securitys return on account of firm-specific or industry-specific risk factors e.g. low productivity, labour trouble, low profitability, turnover of most effective executives (e.g. Marketing Manager or the Production Engineer leaving the firm), emergence of a strong competitor, scarcity of raw materials, increase in
Customs duty, etc. Since the firm specific factors are mostly random, they can be diversified by increasing the number of securities in a portfolio. As for example, if the management of a firm in the portfolio is poor, the management of another firm in the portfolio may be very good; if the productivity in one firm is low, that of another may be high; if one firm suffers due to bad weather while the other gains due to the same condition and so on so that by including sufficient number of securities of different firms in a portfolio such factors may tend to cancel out the effect of each other. Likewise, risk arising out of industry specific factors can be eliminated by diversifying across several industries. But the component, the systematic risk, which depends on the market as a whole, cannot be diversified away. They are caused by economic and political factors.. These factors affect the entire market in a certain direction. As for example, an increase in the price of crude oil at the international market will certainly affect the domestic market adversely or some favourable changes in the fiscal, financial and monetary policies of Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India may act as a booster to the stock market operations. Thus, risk which is dependent on the economy or market as a whole cannot be reduced by any amount of diversification. That is why, this type of risk is called undiversifiable or unavoidable. Conceptually, diversification can be viewed in the manner shown in Fig. 74. The portfolio theory assumes that unsystematic risk can be eliminated by diversification while systematic risk is not for reasons stated above. The proportion of systematic risk to total risk depends on the particular security. It may be 50 percent to 75 percent of total risk. In the USA, it has been found1 that systematic risk contributes about 50 per cent variation in the price of a share. Thus, through diversification, one can, at best reduce half of total risk, the remaining half 9i.e. systematic risk), in this case, cannot be reduced. An investor accordingly needs to be compensated by a premium for undertaking such risk. In the context of systematic risk, it is important to known how it is measured and how systematic risk affects required returns and share prices. This is linked up with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) which has been briefly discussed in Chapter 8 (pp. 531 533). Return on the Market Portfolio We have shown Capital Market Line (CML) in Fig. 73. We have also explained that the expected return from portfolio D will be higher than the return from risk-free investments. So, here we are concerned with the risk premium for accepting an additional degree of risk in including D in the portfolio. The size of the risk premium will increase as the risk of the market portfolio increases. The position is shown in Fig.75. The analysis is made with respect to Capital Market. RD = Return from portfolio
Tax Shield Education Centre D (efficient portfolio) RB . Rf RD Rf = Return from inefficient portfolio = Risk-free return = Risk premium
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The return on market portfolio can be determined by taking into consideration the dividend and capital gain (or loss) in relation to a share price at the beginning of the period. Thus, E (RM) = Dividend + Capital gain (or loss) Share Price at the beginning Illustration:8 Share . Rs.. A B C D Security Market Line While making analysis of total risk, we have seen that in a portfolio1 unsystematic risk can be diversified but not the systematic risk. So, it is the non-diversifiable systematic risk for which an investor needs to be compensated by an additional return, called the risk premium. In other words, the expected return from the portfolio would be its risk-free return plus risk premium. According to the portfolio theory, the risk premium is proportionate to the risk, measured by beta ( ). The relationship between risk and return is liner and is known as the Security Market Line (SML). This relationship is explained by Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The graphical presentation of CAPM is the Security Market Line and the equation for SML is the same as that for expected rate of return under CAPM2 (see next section). Fig. 76 s the Security Market Line. It shows that above the risk-free return, the expected return is proportional to the risk, measured by beta. That is, higher the beta, higher is the systemic risk and vice versa. Portfolio theory asserts that, in an efficient market, all securities in the portfolio are expected to give returns which are commensurate with their riskness, measured by . The risk premium pushes the return from risk-free securities, Rf to market to rate of return, RM. 5 5 5 10 25 Dividend Market Price at beginning Rs. 100 100 10 100 310 Market Price at end Rs. 110 80 40 115 345 Capital gain (loss) Rs. 10 (-) 20 30 15 35
Return (%) RM
Risk Premium
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Systematic Risk ( )
: Security Market Line.
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) We have explained how an investor trades off risk for return. We have also seen that, in the context of a portfolio, it is the non-diversifiable systematic risk that matters. How do we, therefore, measure systematic risk ? Of the two risks, we have seen how unsystematic risk can be diversified away. An investor is, therefore, concerned with the systematic risk. The portfolio theory assets that the real riskness of a security is its systematic risk. It is nothing but vulnerability to market risk. It is nothing but vulnerability to market risk. On p. 532 we have explained that it is the responsiveness of the rate of return from a security to the market return and is denoted by beta ( ). Thus, beta measures the systematic risk and higher the riskness of a security, the higher the value of its beta and vice versa. The market portfolio, as denoted by D is Fig. 73, has a beta of 1. The beta of a portfolio is nothing but the weighted average of the betas of the securities that comprise the portfolio, the weights being the proportions of investments in the respective securities. According to portfolio theory, expected return from a portfolio will comprise risk-free (reward for waiting or for time value of money) and risk premium (reward for risk). Thus E(RP) = Rf + b (KM Rf) Where, E(Rp) Rf KM . b Illustration: 9 A portfolio comprising four securities have the following particulars : Share Percentage of portfolio A B C D 15% 20% 25% 40% 100% Beta factor of security 1.25 1.15 1.05 0.95 = = = = expected rate of return from the portfolio risk-free return Market return (systematic or market risk).
If the risk-free rate of return is 10% and the average market return is 17%, what is the expected rate of return of the portfolio ? The beta factor for a particular security can be calculated by plotting its return against the market returns and drawing the line of best fit. It can also be computed using the following formula : I = COV (a,m) . 2m Where COV (a,m) = covariance of returns on an individual companys share (A) with returns for market as whole (M). 2m = variance of market returns. We know : COV (a,m) = r (a,m) a m Where, r (a,m) = co-efficient of correlation of returns between A & M a = standard deviation of returns from share A m = standard deviation of market rate of returns .i = a m r (a.m) = a r (a,m) 2m m Illustration :10 Risk-free return 10%
Tax Shield Education Centre Market return 15% S.D. of market returns 30%
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Covariance of returns for the market with returns for share of company A is 18%. What is the value of beta for A share and would be its expected return ? We can now summarise the impact of risk factor (beta) on portfolio as follows :
Portfolio beta is the weighted average of the betas of the securities that comprise the portfolio. A portfolio comprising entirely of risk-free securities will have a beta value of O. A market portfolio will have an expected return equal to the expected return of the market as a whole and hence its beta value will be 1. Mr. X invested the following sums of money in shares of five companies having expected returns as follows : Amount invested (Rs. 000) 100 200 100 50 50 500 Expected return (%) 30 40 20 10 5
11.
Name of the company Reliance Tata Tea Indal Goodricke Hindustan Motors i) ii)
What is expected rate of Mr. X from his investments ? What would be his expected return if he increases his investment in Reliance and Tata tea by 100% in each case ?
RISK AND RETURN OF A PORTFOLIO Most investors invest in a portfolio of assets, as they do not want to put all their eggs in one basket. Hence, what really matters o them is not the risk and return of stocks in isolation, but the risk and return of the portfolio as a whole.
68.3%
95.4% -2 S.D. -1 S.D. Expected return Possible return Normal Distribution +1 S.D. +2 S.D.
Tax Shield Education Centre Expected Return on a Portfolio
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The expected return on a portfolio is simply the weighted average of the expected returns on the assets comprising the portfolio. For example, when a portfolio consists of two securities, its expected return is : 2p= x12 where 2 p x1 2 1 (1 x1) R2 = = = = =
1
+ (1 x1) 2
(5.4)
expected return on a portfolio proportion of portfolio invested in security 1 expected return on security 1 proportion of portfolio invested in security 21 expected return on security 2.
To illustrate, consider a portfolio consisting of two securities, A and B. The expected return on these two securities are 10 per cent and 18 per cent respectively. The expected return on the portfolio, when the proportions invested in A and B are 0.4 and 0.6, is simply : 0.4 x 10 + 0.6 x 18 = 14.8% The expected portfolio return, a linear function of the expected returns on the constitute securities, is shown graphically is Fig. 5.2. In general, when a portfolio consists of n securities, the expected return on the portfolio is : 2 where 2 xi 2
p p
= xi 2
(5.5)
= expected return on portfolio = proportion of portfolio invested in security i. = expected return on security i.
2 180% 2
1
2 10%
= x12
(a x1) 2
xi = 1 (1 x1) = 0
xi = 0 (1 x1) = 1
Fig. 5.2 Expected Portfolio Return To illustrate, consider a portfolio consisting of five securities with the following expected return : 2 1 = 10 per cent, 2 2 = 12 per cent, 2 3 = 15 per cent, 2 4 = 18 per cent, and 2 5 = 2- per cent. The portfolio proportions invested in these securities are : x1 = 0.1, x2 = 0.2, x 3 = 0.3, x4 = 0.2, and x5 = 0.2. The expected portfolio return is 2 p = x12 1 + x22 2 + x32 3 + x42 4 + x52 5
Tax Shield Education Centre = = 0.1 x 10 + 0.2 x 12 + 0.3 x 15 + 0.2 x 18 + 0.2 x 20 15.5 per cent
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Diversification and portfolio Risk Before we look at the formulae for portfolio risk, let us understand somewhat intuitively how diversification influences risk. Suppose you have Rs.1,00,000 to invest and you want to invest it equally in two stocks, A and B. The return on these stocks depends on the state of the economy. Your assessment suggests that the probability distributions of the returns on stocks A and B are as shown in Table 5.3. For the sake of simplicity, all the five states of the economy are assumed to be
Probability Distribution of Returns State of the Economy 1 2 3 4 Probability 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Return on Stock 15% -5 5 35 Return on Stock B -5% 15 25 5 Return on Portfolio 5% 5% 15% 20%
equiprobable. The last column of Table 5.3 shows the return on a portfolio consisting of stocks A and B in equal proportions. Graphically, the returns are shown in Figure 5.3. The expected return and standard deviation of return on stocks A and B and the portfolio consisting of A and B in equal proportions are calculated in Table 5.4.
Return on Individual Stocks and the Portfolio Expected Return Stock A Stock B Portfolio of A and B : : : 0.2 (15%) + 0.2 (-5%) + 0.2 (5%) + 0.2 (35%) + 0.2 (25%) = 15% 0.2 (-5%) + 0.2 (15%) + 0.2 (25%) + 0.2 (5%) + 0.2 (35%) = 15% 0.2 (5%) + 0.2 (5%) + 0.2 (15%) + 0.2 (20%) + 0.2 (30%) = 15% Standard Deviation Stock A :
2 A
= = =
0.2 (15 15)2 + 0.2 (-5 15)2 + 0.2 (5 15)2 + 0.2 (35 15)2 + 0.20 (25 15)2 200 (200) = 14.14%
Tax Shield Education Centre Stock B : 0.2 (-5 15)2 + 0.2 (15 15)2 + 0.2 (25 15)2 + 0.2 (5 15)2 + 0.2 (35 15)2 200 B (200) = 14.14% Portfolio : 2 (A+B) = 0.2 (5 15)2 + 0.2 (5 15)2 + 0.2 (15 15)2 + 0.2 (20 15)2 + 0.2 (30 15)2 = 90 A+B = (90) = 9.49%
B 2
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= = =
Table 5.4 shows that if you invest only in stock A, the expected return is 15 per cent and the standard deviation is 14.14 per cent. Likewise , if you invest only in stock B, the expected return is 15 per cent and the standard deviation is 14.14 per cent. What happens if you invest in a portfolio consisting of stocks A and B in equal proportions ? While the expected return remains at 15 per cent, the same as that of either stock individually, the standard deviation of the portfolio return, 9.49 per cent, is lower than that of each stock individually. Thus, in this case, diversification reduces risk. In general, if returns on securities do not move in perfect lockstep, diversification reduces risk. In technical terms, diversification reduces risk if returns are not perfectly positively correlated. The relationship between diversification and risk is shown graphically in Fig. 5.4. When the portfolio has just one security, say stock 1, the risk of the portfolio p, is equal to the risk of the single stock included in it, 1. As a second security say stock 2 is added, the portfolio risk decreases. As more and more securities are added, the portfolio risk decreases, but at a decreasing rate, and reaches a limit. Empirical studies suggest that the bulk of the benefit of diversification, in the form of risk reduction, is achieved by forming a portfolio of about ten securities. Thereafter, the gain from diversification from diversification tends to be negligible. Risk
Unique risk
Market risk No. of Securities
10
Relationship Between Diversification and Risk Market Risk Versus Unique Risk Notice that the portfolio risk does not fall below a certain level, irrespective of how wide the diversification is. why ? The answer lies in the following relationship which represents a basic insight of modern portfolio theory. Total risk = Unique risk + Market risk
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The unique risk of a security represents that portion of its total risk which from firm-specific factors like the development of a new product, a labour strike, or the emergence of a new competitor. Events of this nature primarily affect the specific firm and not all firms in general. Hence, the unique risk of a stock can be washed away by combining it with other stocks. In a diversified portfolio, unique risks of different stocks tend to cancel each other a favourable development in one firm may offset an adverse happening in another and vice versa. Hence, unique risk is also referred to as diversifible risk or unsystematic risk. The market risk of a stock represents that portion of its risk which is attributable to economy-wide factors like the growth rate of GNP, the level of government spending, money supply, interest rate structure, and inflation rate. Since, these factors affect all firms to a greater or lesser degree, investors cannot avoid the risk arising from them, however diversified their portfolios may be. Hence, it is also referred to as systematic risk (as it affects all securities) or non-diversifiable risk. Portfolio Risk : The 2-Security Case Now that we understand the relationship between diversification and portfolio risk, let us express portfolio risk in formal terms. The variance and standard deviation of the return of a two-security portfolio are : where 2p = p = x1 = 1 = x2 = 2 = p12 = Example
2 p
= x21
+ x22
+ 2x1x2p12 1
(5.6) (5.6a)
= [ x21
2 1
+ x22
2 2
+ 2x1x2P12 1 2 ]
variance of the portfolio return standard deviation of the portfolio return proportion of portfolio invested in security 1 standard deviation of the return on security 1 proportion of portfolio invested in security 2 standard deviation of the return on security 2 coefficient of correlation between the returns on securities 1 and 2.
A portfolio consists of two securities, 1 and 2. The following information is available :

2
X1 + 0.6, x2 = 0.4, 1 = 0.10,
= 0.16, and p12 = 0.5. What is the standing deviation of portfolio return ?
The standard deviation of portfolio return is : p = 0.42 x 0.162 + 2 x 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.10 x 0.16 ] = 10.7 per cent. [ 0.62 x 0.102 +
From Eq. (5.6a), it is clear that the risk of a portfolio is a function of : (i) the proportion invested in the component securities, (ii) the risk of the component securities, and (iii) the correlation of returns on the component securities.
2 p
may be obtained as the sun of the elements in the following 2 x 2 matrix 1 1 2 2

1
X 1
2
x1x2p12 1
1
X2x1p21 2
x22
2 2
The entries in the boxes lying on the diagonal from the top left to the bottom right depend on the variances of returns on securities included in the portfolio. The entries in the other boxes depend on the covariances of returns on securities included in the portfolio. (The covariance, 12, is equal to the correlation coefficient, p12, multiplied by the two-standard deviations 1 and 2.) Portfolio Risk : The n-Security Case
Tax Shield Education Centre The variance and standard deviation of the return of an n-security portfolio are : where 2p = p = xi = xj = pij = i = j =
2 p
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= xi xj pij i
(5.7) (5.7a)
= [ xi xj pij i j ]
variance of portfolio return standard deviation of portfolio return proportion of portfolio invested in security i proportion of portfolio invested in security j coefficient of correlation between the returns on securities i and j standard deviation of return on security i. standard deviation of return on security j.
The relationship embodied in Eq. (5.7) is not as complicated as it appears. It is in the sum of n 2 terms found in the n x n matrix shown in Table 5.5.
Table 5.5 1 1 2 3 n x21

2 1
n x n Matrix 3
3
2 x1x2p12 1
1 2
n x1x2p1n 1 x2xnp2n 2
n
x1x3p13 1 x2x3p23 2
x2x1p21 2 x3x1p31 3 xnx1pn1 n
x22
x3x2p32 3
x23
x2n
2 n
Notice that in Table 5.5 there are n variance terms (the diagonal terms) and n(n 1) covariance terms (the non-diagonal terms). If n is just two, there are two variance terms and two covariance terms. However, as n increases, the number of covariance terms is much large than the number of variance terms. For example, when n is 10, there are 10 (that is n) variance terms and 90 that is n(n 1) covariance terms. Hence the variance of a well-diversified portfolio is largely determined by the covariance terms. If covariance terms are likely to be positive or negative with the same probability, it may be possible to get rid of risk almost wholly by resorting to diversification : Unfortunately, securities move together and not independently. This means that most covariance terms are positive. Hence, irrespective of how widely diversified is, its risk does not fall below a certain level. Now you can appreciate better the meaning of market risk. Which represents the floor below which portfolio risk cannot fall as portrayed in Figure 5.4. Correlation Since the degree of correlation among securities included in a portfolio has an important bearing on portfolio risk, a brief discussion about correlation is in order. The correlation coefficient reflects the extent to which there is a linear relationship between two random variables. It is expressed as follows : Coefficient of correlation (x, y) = Covariance between x and y Standard deviation of x Standard deviation of y
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The coefficient of correlation, pxy, is a standardised statistic which can range between 1 and +1, regardless of the units in which the original variables are measured. If pxy > 0, it means that as one variable increases the other variable also tends to increase. When the two variables have perfect positive correlation, pxy becomes 1. If pxy = 0, it means that there is no relationship between the two variables, p xy < 0 implies that as one variable increases, the other variable tends to decrease. When the two variables are perfectly negatively correlated, pxy becomes 1 Figure 5.5 portrays graphically various types of correlation relationships.
Graphic Portrayal of Various Types of Correlation Relationships MEASUREMENT OF MARKET RISK The risk of a well-diversified portfolio, as we have seen, is represented by its market risk. As Brealey and Myers put it : The risk of a well-diversified portfolio depends on the market risk of the securities included in the portfolio. Tattoo that statement on your forehead if you cant remember it any other way.1 The market risk of a security reflects its sensitivity to market movements. Different securities seem to display differing sensitivities to market movements. This is illustrated graphically in Figure 5.6 which shows the returns on the market portfolio (RM) over time, along with the returns on two other securities a risky security (whose return is denoted by (R1) and a conservative security (whose return is denoted of (Rc). It is evident that the return on the risky security (R1) is more than the return on the market portfolio (RM), whereas the return on the conservative security (Rc) is less volatile than the return on the market portfolio (RM).
Return
Tax Shield Education Centre Time
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Behaviour of returns Over Time The sensitivity of a security to market movements is called ( ). Though not perfect, beta represents the most widely accepted measure of the extent to which the return on a security fluctuates with the return on the market portfolio. By definition, the beta for the market portfolio is 1. A security which has a beta of, say, 1.5 experiences greater fluctuation than the market portfolio. More precisely, if the return on market portfolio is expected to increase by 10 per cent, the return on the security with a beta of 1.5 is expected to increase by 15 per cent 91.5 x 10 per cent). On the other hand, a security which has a beta of, say, 0.8 fluctuates lesser than the market portfolio. If the return on the market portfolio is expected to rise by 10 per cent, the return on the security with a beta of 0.8 is expected to rise by 8 per cent (8.0 x 10 per cent). Individual security betas generally fall in the range 0.50 to 1.80 and rarely, if every, assume a negative value. Calculation of Beta For calculating the beta of a security, the following market model is employed : Rj = j + jRM + ej where Rj j j RM Ej = = = = = return of security j intercept term alpha regression coefficient, beta return on market portfolio random error term (5.8)
Beta reflects the slope of the above regression relationship. It is equal to : j= Cov (Rj, RM) = PjM Pj
2 M M
= PjM
M
(5.9)
where Cov = Covariance between the return on security j and the return on market portfolio M. It is equal to : 1
n t=1
(Rjt - 2 j) (RMt - 2 M) / (n 1)
2M PjM j M
= = = =
variance of return on the market portfolio correlation coefficient between the return on jth security and the return on the market portfolio standard deviation of return on the jth security Year Return the market portfolio Return on Market standard deviation of return on on Security j
(%) 6 13 -4 13 14 4 18
Portfolio (%) 5 18 -8 10 16 7 15
An example will help in understanding what j is and how it is calculated. The returns on security j and the market portfolio for a 10-year period are given below : 1 10 12
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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The beta for security j, j, is calculated in Table 5.6. For the sake of completeness, the intercept term, j, has also been computed in table 5.6. Table 5.6 Calculation of Beta Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Rj 10 6 13 -4 13 14 4 18 24 22 RM 12 5 18 -8 10 16 7 15 30 25 RM = 130 2 M = 13 = Cov (Rj , RM) = 86.4 2M 113.6 Rj - 2
j
RM - 2 -1 -8 5 -21 -3 3 -6 2 17 12
(Rj - 2 j) (RM - 2 M) 2 48 5 336 -3 6 48 12 204 120
(RM - 2 M)2 1 64 25 441 9 9 36 4 289 144
-2 -6 1 -16 1 2 -8 6 12 10
Rj = 120 2 j = 12 Beta :
j
(Rj - 2 j) (RM - 2 M) = 778 = 0.76 Alpha : j = 2 j - j 2
(RM - 2 M) 2 = 1022
= 12 (0.76) (13) = 2.12%
Given the values of j(0.76) and j(2.12 per cent), the regression relationship between the return on security j(Rj) and the return on market portfolio (RM) is shown graphically in Fig. 5.7. The graphic presentation is commonly referred to as the characteristic line. Since security j has a beta of 0.76, we refer that its return is less volatile than the return on the market portfolio. If the return on the market portfolio rises/falls by 10 per cent, the return on security j would be expected to increase/decrease by 7.6 per cent (0.76 x 10%). The intercept term for security j ( j) is equal to 2.12 per cent. It represents the expected return on security j when the return on the market portfolio is zero. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RISK AND RETURN Before proceeding future, let us pause for a while and recapitulate the key elements so far : Securities are risky because their returns are variable. The most commonly used measure of risk or variability in finance is standard deviation. The risk of a security can be split into two parts: unique risk and market risk. Unique risk stems firm-specific factors, whereas market risk emanates from economy-wide factors.
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Portfolio diversification washes away unique risk, but not market risk. Hence, the risk of a fully diversified portfolio is its market risk. The contribution of a security to the risk of a fully diversified portfolio is measured by its beta, which reflects its sensitivity to the general market movements.
Since beta is the relevant measure of a securitys risk, the next logical question is : What is the relationship between the risk of a security, as measured by its beta, and its expected return ? The capital asset pricing model (CAPM), a seminal theory in modern finance developed more or less simultaneously by William Sharpe, John Lintner, and Jack Treynor, answers this question. According to the capital asset pricing model, risk and return are related in a linear fashion : E (Rj) = Rf + j [ E(RM) Rf Where E (Rj) Rf j E (RM) = = = = expected return on security j risk-free return beta of security expected return on the market portfolio (5.10)
As per the above relationship, referred to as the security market line, the required return on a security consists of two components : Risk-free return Risk premium : : Rf j [ E (RM) Rf ]
Note that the risk premium is a product of the level of risk, j, and the compensation per unit of risk, [ E (RM) Rj ]. To illustrate, let us consider an example. Stock j has a beta of 1.4. If the risk-free rate is 10 per cent and the expected return on the market portfolio is 15 per cent, the expected return on stock j is : 10 + 1.4 (15 10) = 17 per cent It is obvious that, ceteris paribus, the higher the beta, the higher the expected return, and vice versa. Figure 5.8 shows the security market line for the basic data given above. In this figure, the expected return on three securities A, B and C is shown. Security A is a defensive security with a beta of 0.5. Its expected rate of return is 12.5 per cent. Security B is a neutral security with a beta of 1. Its expected rate of return is equal to the rate of return on the market portfolio. Security C is an aggressive security with a beta of 1.5. Its expected rate of return is 17.5 per cent. (In general, if the beta of a security is less than 1 it is charactersied as defensive; if it is equal to 1 it is charactersied as neutral ; and if is more than 1 it is charactersed as aggressive.) Changes in Security Market Line The two parameters defining the security market line are the intercept (Rf) and the slop [ E (RM) Rj ]. The intercept represents the nominal rate of return on the risk-free security. It is expected to be equal to the risk-free real rate of return plus the inflation rate. For example, if the risk-free real rate of return is 4 per cent and the inflation rate is 8 per cent, the nominal rate of return on the risk-free security is expected to be 12 per cent. The slop represents the price per unit of risk and is a function of the risk-aversion of investors. If the real risk-free rate of return and / or the inflation rate changes, the intercept of the security market line changes. If the risk aversion of investors changes, the slop of the security market line changes. Figures 5.9 shows the change in the security market line when the inflation rate increases, and fig. 5.10 shows the change in the security market line when the risk-aversion of investors decreases. Security market Equilibrium
Tax Shield Education Centre RA = Rf +

A
MAFA-67 (RM Rf)
= 10% + 1.25 (14% - 10%) = 15% After assessing the prospects of stock A, investors conclude that its earnings, dividends, and price will continue to grow at the rate of 6 per cent annum. The previous dividend per share, D0 was Rs.1.70. the dividend per share expected a year hence is : D1 = Rs. 1.70 (1.06) = 1.80 The market price per share happens to be rs.22. what would investors, in general, do ? Investors would calculate the expected return from stock A as follows : Expected return = = = Dividend yield + Growth rate 1.80/22 + 6% 8.2% + 6% = 14.2%
Finding that the expected return is less than the required rate, investors, in general, would like to sell stock. however, as there would be no demand for the stock at Rs.22 per share, existing owners will have to lower the price to such a level that it fetches a return of 15 per cent, its required return. That price, its equilibrium price, is the value of PA in the following equation : 15% = 1.80 + 6% PA (5.11)
Solving Eq. (5.11) for PA, we find that the equilibrium price is Rs.20.00. If the market price initially had been lower than Rs.20,00, investors, finding its return to be greater than its required return, would seek to buy it. In this process the price will be pushed up to Rs.20.00, its equilibrium price. Changes in equilibrium stock prices Stock market price tend to change in response to changes in the underlying factors. To illustrate, let us assume that stock A, described above, is in equilibrium and sells at a price of Rs.20.00 per share. If the expection with respect to this stock are fulfiled, its equilibrium price a year hence will be Rs.21.20, six per cent higher than the current price. However, several factors could change in the course of a year and alter its equilibrium price. Suppose the values of underlying changes as follows :
Value of the Underlying Factor Original Revised Rf (Riskless rate) 2M Rf (Market risk premium) 3% 10% 4% 9%
The changes in the first three factors cause RA to change from 15 per cent to 13 per cent. Original Revised : : RA RA = = 10% + 1.25 (4%) = 15% 9% + 1.33 (3%) = 13%
The change in expected growth rate, along with the change in the required rate of return cause the equilibrium price to increase from Rs.20.00 to Rs.36.80. Original : P0 = 1.70 (1.06) = 1.80 = Rs.20.00 0.15 0.06 0.09
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Revised Empirical Evidence
P0 =
1.70 (1.08) = 1.84 = Rs.36.80 0.13 0.08 0.05
Beta, a product of academic research, was initially viewed with disdain and suspicion by the investment community. However , it was gradually accepted, as the initial empirical evidence supported it. The earlier resistance turned into enthusiasm. Beta indeed because very fashionable in the 1970s and the investment industry in the US began manufacturing and supplying beta on a large scale. A lead story in the Institutional Investor, the favourite magazine of the investment community, noted that managers with a meagre background in mathematics were tossing betas around with the abandon of Ph Ds in statistical theory. As Burton malkiel observed : The beta boosters in the street oversold their products with an abandon that would have shocked even the most enthusiastic academic intent on spreading the beta cult. Along with the spread of the beta cult, the capital asset pricing model and its various extensions were subject to more rigorous and comprehensive scrutiny and testing. Several issues have been raised. Can the capital asset pricing model be adequately tested ? How stable are beta ? Is the relationship between risk (as measured by beta) and return as stipulated by the capital asset pricing model ? What factors, besides beta, have a bearing on return ? While categorical answer to the above questions are not available as of now, the extensive research done to date suggests the following : 1. There is a fundamental problem in testing the capital asset pricing model. Richard Roll argued persuasively that since the true market portfolio (which in principle must include all assets financial, real, as well as human and not just equity stocks) cannot be measured, the capital asset pricing model cannot be tested adequately. While betas of individual stocks are fickle, betas of portfolios (consisting of 10 to 15 stocks) are fairly stable. The actual relationship between risk (as measured by beta) and return is flatter than what the capital asset pricing model says. This means that low beta stocks earn a rate of return higher than what the capital asset pricing model stipulates, whereas high beta stocks earn a rate of return lower than what the capital asset pricing model suggests. In addition to beta, some other factors (like standard deviation of historical returns and company size) too have a bearing on the realised rate of return.
2. 3.
4.
To sum up, while beta has an important bearing on returns, the capital asset pricing model does not fully capture the asset pricing process. As James Lorie, Peter Dodd, and Mary Kimpton said : Beta, however, remains a valuable concept, and the capital asset pricing model remains one of the most powerful developments in modern finance.
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Pg 513 bhalla
REVIEW PROBLEMS 1. If the risk-free return is 10% and the expected return on BSE index is 18% (and risk measurement by standard and what 2. deviation is 5%), how would you construct an efficient portfolio to produce a 16% expected return would be its risk ?
Given the information in question (1), and the fact that you have personal funds of rs.1,00,000 to invest, how would you construct a portfolio giving an expected return of 20% and what would be its risk ?
3.
After a through analysis of both the aggregate stock market and the stock of XYZ Company, you develop the following opinion :
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Likely Economic Conditions Good Fair Poor Aggregate Market 16% 12% 3%
Returns XYZ 20% 13% -5% Probability 0.4 0.4 0.2
At present the risk-free rate is equal to 7%. Would an investment in XYZ be wise ? 4. Assume that the risk-free rate of interest is 8 per cent, the market has an estimated risk premium of 6 per cent, and the markets standard deviation of return is 10 per cent. Calculate the variance (or SD) of return for each portfolio below : Portfolio 1 : Portfolio 2 : 5. 30% risk-free fund, 70% the market diversified portfolio with beta 1.5
You expect the stock of Firm X to sell for Rs.70 a year from now and to pay a Rs.4.00 dividend. If the stocks correlation with portfolio M is -0.3, x = 40.0%, M = 20.0%, T = 5%, and Rpm 50, what be selling for ? Explain.
would the stock 6.
Assume there are three major classes of risk securities available, as follows : Correlation with
Security Class Real Estate (RE) Equity (E) Debt (D) a. type b. c. d. e.
Total Market Rs.10,000 6,000 4,000
20% 30% 15%
RE 1.0 0.3 0.3
Total 0.65
1.0 0.3 0.1
0.60 0.30
What is the market portfolio ? How much of its risk assets should the mutual fund invest in each security ? what is the of such a portfolio ?
If riskfree rate is 8.0% and Return on market portfolio is 5.0%, what are the CML and SML equations ? If investment portfolio should have a long-run expected return of 12%, how would this be obtained ? If a company beta is 1.2, what should the equity expected to earn to qualify for a purchase ? The local representative of a mutual fund has been pressing the investor to invest solely in the fund. One reason which the representative offers is that the fund has a beta of 1.0 and thus its risk is the same as the market portfolios risk. Comment.
7.
Management of a mutual fund has considered three alternative strategies : % investment in
Tax Shield Education Centre Plan 1 2 3 a. b. c. d. 8. T-Bonds 0.0 20 30 Which is the most risk strategy ? If T = 7% and the expected return under plan 1 is 14%, what is the market risk premium ? Stocks 100 80 70 T-Bonds 0 0 0 Beta of Stocks 1.0 1.0 1.0 ? ? ?
MAFA-70 Portfolio
Management believes that this risk premium is too low and that the market will soon adjust it upward. Given this, which plan might management wish to persue ? Would this be a speculative or an investment strategy ? Based on the risk and return relationships of the CAPM, supply values for the seven missing data in the following table : Security Return A B C D E -- % 19.0 15.0 7.0 21.0 0.8 1.5 -0 -Expected Beta Standard Deviation --% -8 12 15 Non-market risk ( 2 ei ) 85 .49 0 ---
9.
B.B. Puri is considering several investments. The risk-free rate of return is currently 6.75 percent, and the expected return for the market is 12 per cent. What should be the required rates of return for each investment (using the CAPM) ?
10.
Using the CAPM, estimate the appropriate required rate of return for the three stocks listed below, given that the risk-free rate is 6 per cent, and the expected rate of return for the market is 18 per cent.
Stock A B C 11.
Beta 1.40 0.90 0.75
An investor is seeking an efficient portfolio with a correlation of 0.7 between the portfolio and the market and a standard deviation of 2.5%. The market standard return on risk -free securities. What is the return being sought by the investor ? required rate of
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Y.P. Yadav is considering the purchase of a stock that has a beta coefficient of 0.75. He estimates the expected market return to be 0.12 while T-bill yield 0.08. What rate should the expect and require on this stock, according to the SML ?
13.
Riskless securities are currently offering a return of 7.25 percent at a time when the expected market return on with a required all securities is 14.75. The market standard deviation is 2.0%. An investor is seeking a portfolio correlation coefficient of 0.85 and a standard deviation of not more than 1.5%. What would be the return on such a portfolio ?
14. The
R.S. Singh owns a diversified portfolio securities, which he estimates to have a standard deviation of 0.37. return on short-term T-bills is 0.09, and Singh estimates the expected return to be 0.14 and the standard deviation to be 0.28. What is the expected return on the Singhs portfolio according to market CML ?
15.
The expected market return for the general market is 15.50 percent, and the risk premium is 7.50 percent. ABC, XYZ, RDX have betas of 0.75 and 1.20, respectively. What are the appropriate required rates of return for the three securities ?
16.
Anand Auto has a beta of 0.865. If the expected market return is 17.50 and the risk free rate of return is 8.50 percent, which is the appropriate required return of Anand Auto (using the CAPM) ?
17.
An assets has been offered for sale to a real estate investment trust at a time when the expected market return is 15% and the riskless rate of return is 8%. The correlation coefficient between the asset and the market is 0.85 and the market standard deviation is 4 per cent. The assets can be purchased today for Rs.10 crore and could be sold next year for an estimated Rs.10.75 crore. Meanwhile, during the year the asset should earn Rs.16,00,000. The expected return on the asset overall will have a standard deviation of Rs.91,000. What is the requested return on this investment ? What is the expected return ? Is the investment efficient ?
18.
Refer to the following data for computing betas for (i) Security X, (b) Security Y, (iii) for an equal weighted portfolio of securities X and Y. Security Correlation Coefficients .i with market X Y 0.5 0.3 0.25 0.30 Standard Deviation of i
19.
Refer to the data given in problem-18 and compute the equilibrium expected return according to the CAPM for (.i) Security X, (ii) Security Y, and (iii) for an equally weighted portfolio of securities X and Y.
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The return on the market portfolio is 14 per cent and the return on zero portfolio is 8 per cent. The markets standard deviation is 40 percent. the following table : Standard Deviation A B 0.20 0.26 ----Beta Residual Variance 0.0475 0.0650 Assume the CAPM with risk-free lending but no risk-free borrowing, complete Stock
Expected Return
21.
Based on your answer to problem 20 and Con. (RA, RB ) = 0, what is the expected return. , and standard deviation of a portfolio with equal amounts in stocks A and B ?
22. Anand Malik has Rs.1,00,000 to invest. He is a fairly conservative person, so he sets a target for his portfolio of 0.8. He then proceeds to analyse stocks and select them based on his analysis. After careful analysis, he arrives at a group of 18 stocks with mean of 1.6. determine how he can weight his portfolio to reach his risk target. 23. Complete the blanks in the following table, assuming the elevant equilibrium model in the CAPM with unlimited borrowing ad lending at the riskless rate of return. Stocks A B C Expected Return 0.18 0.15 -Standard Deviation -0.50 -1.5 0.75 0.60 Beta Residual Variance 0.12 0.05 0.14
24.
The management of Super Cement Company (SCC) has been examining the market behaviour of the firms equity is generally favoured by the institutional investors. The price fluctuates within a relatively narrow range and appears to be closely linked to the firms policy of steady dividend payments. The linkage has been weakening in recent years. Through the mid-1980s, the contribution of dividends plus rises in market value produced average Return on Assets of 11 to 18 percent annually for equity shareholders, as shown in Exhibitconcerns investments and 1. This return has now declined to below 9 per cent in the 1993-1997 period. This since it may mean that shareholders may sell their shares to seek better thus depress the equity prices. management
The degree of risk inherent in a stock clearly influemces how investors perceive the stocks value. To have some basis for Exhibit - 1
Tax Shield Education Centre Return on Asset Achieved by SCC Equity Shareholders (1983-1997) Year 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ROA * 18.0% 14.1 11.0 12.9 14.0 YEAR 1988 1989 1990 1991 ROA 12.1% 11.8 9.2 8.9 13.0% YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 RDA 12.4% 10.6 -3.5 11.6 8.7%
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25.
Z plc is a long-established company with interest mainly in relating and property development. Its current market capitalisation is 750 million. The company trades almost exclusively in the UK but it is planning to expand overseas either by acquisition or joint venture within the next two year. The company has built up a portfolio of investments in UK equities and corporate and government debt. The aim of developing this investment portfolio is to provide a source of funds for its overseas expansion programme. Summary information on the portfolio is given below : Type of security UK equities US equities UK corporate debt Long-term government debt 3-monyh Treasury bonds Value million 23.2 9.4 5.3 11.4 3.2 Average % return over last 12 months 15.0 13.5 8.2 7.4 6.0
Approximately 25% of the UK equities are in small companies shares, some of them trading on the Alternative investment Market. The average return on all UK equities over the past 12 months has been 12%. On US equities it has been 12.5%. Ignore taxation throughout this question. REQUIREMENT : (a) (b) Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of holding such a portfolio of investments in the circumstances of Z plc. One of Z plcs corporate debt investments is 50,000 nominal in a convertible loan stock 1997/99, currently selling at 106.50 per 100 of stock. The coupon rate is 6%. If not converted, it is repayable on 31 December 1999 at par. Interest is payable annually and has just been paid for 1997. Bonds of similar risk without a conversion feature are currently selling to return 7%. The 1997 date for conversion is 31 December 1997 at a conversion ratio of 20 shares per 100 of stock. The ratio applicable for conversion in 1998 is 18 shares per 100 of stock. The market price of the ordinary shares is 540 pence. At the time the bonds were purchased by Z plc in 1996, the equity share price was 480 pence. Assume that interest rates have remained unchanged since the bonds were purchased. REQUIREMENTS : (i) (ii) Explain what is meant by the terms conversion premium and conversion discount. Advise the companys treasurer about the facts to consider before deciding whether to convert the loan stock in 1997 or 1998. Include all relevant calculations in your advice. SFM 18 November 1997
Tax Shield Education Centre Portfolio Analysis : Risk and Return Pg 416
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Question 1. You are evaluating an investment in two companies whose past ten years of returns are shown below : Companies 1 FST SND 37 32 2 24 29 3 -7 -12 4 6 1 Per cent Return During Year 5 6 7 8 18 15 32 30 -5 0 21 18 9 18 27 10 6 10
(a) Calculate the standard deviation of each companys returns. (b) Calculate the correlation coefficient of the companies returns. (c) If you had placed 50% of your money in each, what would have been the standard deviation of your portfolio and the average yearly return ? (d) What percentage investment in each would have resulted in the lowest risk ? (e) Assume that a yearly risk-free return of 8% was available and that you had held only one of the two companies. Which would have been the better to own ? (f) Graph the risk and return of each fund. Given your answer to part (d), what was the single efficient portfolio of the two ? (g) Use part (f) to determine : How an average return of 10.8% would have been obtained.] How an average return of 17.8% would have been obtained.
Question 2. K.S. Bhatt holds a well-diversified portfolio of stocks in XYZ Group. During the last 5 years returns on these stocks have averaged 20.0% per year and had a standard deviation of 15.0%. He is satisfied with the yearly availability of his portfolio and would like to reduce its risk without affecting overall returns. He approaches you for help in finding an appropriate diversification medium. After a lengthy review of alternatives, you conclude : (.i) future average returns and volatility of returns on his current portfolio will be the same as he has historically expected, (ii) to provide a quarter degree of diversification in his portfolio, investment could be made in stocks of the following groups :
Groups . ABC KLM RST
Expected Return 20% 20% 20%
Correlation of Returns with Group XYZ +1.0 -1.0 +0.0
Standard Deviation 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
(a) If Bhatt invests 50% of his funds in ABC Group and leaves the remainder in XYZ Group, would this affect both his expected returns and his risk ? Why ? (b) If Bhatt invests 50% of his funds in KLM Group and leaves the remainder in XYZ Group, would this affect both his expected returns and his risk ? Why ? (c) What should he do ? Indicate precise portfolio weighting. Question 3. Consider the two stocks ABC and XYZ with a standard deviation 0.05 and 0.10, respectively. correlation coefficient for these two stocks is 0.8. (a) What is the diversification gain from forming a portfolio that has equal proportions of each stock ? (b) What should be the weights of the two assets in a portfolio that achieves a diversification gain of 3% ? The
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Question 4. Vinay Gautam is considering an investment in one of two securities. Given the information that follows, which investment is better, based on risk (as measured by the standard deviation) and return ? Security ABC Probability 0.30 0.40 0.30 Security XYZ Probability 0.20 0.30 0.30 0.20
Return 19% 15% 11%
Return 22% 6% 14% -5%
Question 5. You have been asked by a client for advice in selecting a portfolio of assets based on the following data :
Year A 1995 1996 1997 0.14 0.16 0.18
Return B 0.18 0.16 0.14
C 0.14 0.16 0.18
You have been asked to create portfolios by investing equal proportions (i.e, 50%) in each of two different securities. No probabilities have been supplied. (a) (b) (d) (e) What is the expected return on each of these securities over the three-year period ? What is the standard deviation on each securitys return ? What is the expected return on each portfolio ? For each portfolio, how would you characterise the correlation between the returns on its two assets ? What is the standard deviation of each portfolio ?
(f) Which portfolio do you recommend ? Why ? Question 6. National Corporation is planning to invest to invest in a security that has several possible rates of return. Given the following probability distribution returns, what is the expected rate of return on investment ? Also compute the standard deviation of the returns. What do the resulting numbers represent ? Question 7. Assume that the current rate on a one-year security is 7 percent. You believe that the yield on a one-year security will be 9 percent one year from now and 10 percent 2 years from now. According to the expectations hypothesis, what should the yield be on a three-year security ? Question 8. A.K. Kapoor is evaluating a security. One year Treasury bills are currently paing 9.1 per cent. Calculate the below investments expected return and its standard deviation. Should Kapoor invest in this security ? Probability Return .15% 15% .30% 7% .40% 10% .15% 5%
Question 9. T.S. Shekhar has a portfolio of five securities. The expected rate and amount of investment in each security is as follows : Security Expected return Amount invested A .14 Rs.20,000 B .08 Rs.10,000 C .15 Rs.30,000 D .09 Rs.25,000 E .12 Rs.15,000
Tax Shield Education Centre Compute the expected return on Shekhars portfolio. Question 10.
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T.S. Kumar holds a two-stock portfolio. Stock ABC has a standard deviation of returns of .6 and stock XYZ has a standard deviation of .4. The correlation coefficient of the two stocks returns is 0.25. Kumar holds equal amounts of each stock. Compute the portfolio standard deviation for the two-stock portfolio.
Question 11. Ravi Shankar has prepared the following information regarding two investments under consideration. Which investment should be accepted ? Probability 0.30 0.50 0.30 -Security ABC Return 27% 18% -2% -Security XYZ Probability 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.10 Return 15% 6% 10% 4%
BUDGET BUDGETING AND BUDGETARY CONTROL Comprehensive budgetary control procedures provide invaluable aid for scientific management. Budgeting provides a powerful tool to the management for the efficient performance of its functions, viz. formulating plans, coordinating activities, and controlling operations. Budgets. A budget is a financial and/or quantitative statement, prepared prior to a defined period of time, of the policy to be pursued during that period for the purpose of attaining a given objective. An analysis of this definition will reveal the essential features of a budget namely that (I) a budget may be expressed in terms of money or quantity, or both (ii) it should be developed prior to the period during which it is to operate, (iii) it is set for a definite period, and (iv) before its preparation, the objective to be attained and the policy to be pursued to achieve that objective and
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required to be laid down. Budgeting lays emphasis on the necessity for advance decision on future course of action to be followed and points out the result which would accrue by following that course of action. Budgetary Control. Budgetary control is defined as the establishment of budgets relating the responsibilities of executives to the requirements of a policy and the continuous comparison of actual with budgeted results, either to secure by individual action the objective of that policy or to provide a basis for its revision. It follows that a budgetary control system secures control over performances and related costs in different parts of a business by (I) establishing budgets, (ii0 comparing actual attainments against the budgets, and (iii) taking corrective action and remedial measures or revision of the budgets, if necessary. Problems 1. The following are the details of the Budgeted and the actual cost in a factory for six months from January to June, 1980.From the figures given below you are required to prepare the production cost budget for the period from January to June, 19x1. January - June, 19x0 Budget Actual Production (units) 20,000 18,000 Material cost Rs. 40,00,000 39,90,000 (2,000 MT @ Rs. 2,000) (*1,900 MT @ Rs. 2,100) Labour cost Rs. 8,00,000(@Rs.20 per hour) 7,99,920 (@ Rs.22 per hour) Variable overheads Rs. 2,40,000 2,16,000 Fixed overheads Rs. 4,00,000 4,20,000 In the first half of 19x1, production is budgeted for 25,000 units. Material cost per ton will increase from last years actually by Rs. 100 but is proposed to maintain the consumption efficiency of 19x0. as budgeted. Labour efficiency will be lower by another 1% and labour rates will be Rs. 22 per hour. Variable and Fixed overheads will go up by 20% over 19 0 actual. You are required to prepare the production cost budget for the period January-June, 19x1 giving all the workings. 2. The January 1 cash balance of the Jay Company is Rs. 5,000 . Sales for the first four months of the year are expected to be as follows : January, Rs. 65,000; February, Rs. 54,000; March, Rs. 66,000; and April, Rs. 63,000. On January1, uncollected amounts for November and December of the previous year, are Rs. 13,500 and Rs. 39,150, respectively. Collections from customers follow this pattern; 55% in the month of sale, 30% in the month following the sale, 13% in the second month following the sale, and 2% uncollectible. Materials purchases for December were Rs. 10,000. Forecast purchases for the coming year are : January, Rs. 12,500; February, Rs. 16,500; March, Rs. 13,000; and April, Rs. 14,000. Purchases are usually paid by the 10th of the month following the month of purchase . Other cash expenditures of Rs. 41,000 are forecast for each month. Calculate : (I) Expected cash collections during February (ii) Expected cash balance, February 1: (iii) Expected cash balance, February 28. 3. RH Ltd. is a new Company which has planned to produce two products as detailed below :SULOHI Rs./unit Direct materials Direct Wages Variable Overheads (excluding sales commission) Total variable costs Selling Price 40 30 14 84 100 UNIBLA Rs./unit 20 15 7 42 50
Fixed expenses excluding interest on bank overdrafts amount to Rs. 6,00,000 per annum and are expected to be incurred in equal amounts from 1st June 1984. The financial year commences from 1st July 1998 and the sales for June 1998 and the first four months of the year 1998-99 are as under :-
Tax Shield Education Centre Month June 1998 July 1998 August 1998 September 1998 October 1998 Units of Sales budgeted Sulohi Unibla 4,400 2,100 4,200 2,100 4,600 2,300 3,600 1,800 4,000 2,000
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Production : 75 % of each months sales will be produced in the month of sale and 25% of sales are produced in the previous month. Sales : In the case of Sulohi the pattern of sales realisation will be as under : a) One-third on cash basis on which a cash discount of 2% is allowed ; b) One-third on documents against payment through bank. Such bills are discounted with the bank and credit is received in the month of sale itself. c) One-third on documents against acceptance and collected through bank. The cash under the scheme will be received in the third month. For example the value of goods sold in September will be received in November. However, cash due in the month of July under this scheme was not received till October. In the case of Unibla, 80% of payment is received in the month of sales and the balance 20% in the next month.
Direct Materials : 50% of the direct materials required for each months production will be purchased in the previous month and The balance 50% in the month of production itself. The total requirement of direct material in October, 1998 was estimated at Rs. 2,00,000. The payment for direct material purchases will be made in the month following the purchase. Direct wages : 80% Direct wages will be paid in the month of use of direct labour and the balance of 20% in the following month. Variable overheads : 50% to be paid in the month of use and the balance 50% in the next month. Fixed overheads : 40% of the fixed overheads will be paid in the month in which it is incurred and 40% in the f ollowing month. The balance of 20% represents depreciation on fixed assets. Interest and Bank charges : Interest is charged at the rate of 18% per annum on the overdrafts of each month but the bank debits Interest at the end of each quarter namely on the last day of March, June, September and December, The charge for discounting bills is 0.5% which is debited in the same month by the bank. Commission: A Commission of 3% on the gross sales of Sulohi and 2% on the gross sales of Unibla is payable at the end of each quarter. Cash: Cash in bank on 1st July 1998 is Rs. 1,00,000. Build up the various budgets as required with a view to preparing a monthwise Cash budget for the months of July, August and September 1998. Show the Cash budget in a detailed from. 4. Soloproducts Ltd. Manufactures and sells a single product and has estimated a sales revenue of Rs. 126 lakhs this year based on a 20 percent profit on selling price. Each unit of the product requires 3 lbs. of material and 1 1/2 lbs. of material Q for manufacture as well as a processing time of 4 hours in the Machine shop and 2 1/2 labours in the Assembly Section. Overheads are absorbed at a blanket rate of 331/2 per cent on direct labour. The factory works 5 days of 8 hours a week in a normal 52 weeks a year. On an average statutory holidays, leave and absenteeism and idle time amount to 96 hours, 80 hours and 64 hours respectively, in a year. The other details are as under : Rs. Purchase price Material P 6 per lb Material Q 4 per lb Comprehensive labour Rate Machine Shop 4 per hour Assembly 3.20 per hour No of Employees Machine Shop 600 Assembly 180 Finished Goods Material P Material Q
Tax Shield Education Centre Opening Stock 20,000 units 54,000 lbs. 33,000 lbs. Closing Stock (Estimated) 25,000 units 30,000 lbs. 65,000 lbs. You are required to calculate : (a) The number of units of the product proposed to be sold. (b) Purchases to be made of Materials P and Q during the year in Rupees. (c) Capacity utilisation of Machine shop and Assembly Section. Along with your comments.
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Advance Financial Management :Theory Basic Financial Management 1. It has traditionally been argued that the objective of a company is to earn profit; hence the objective of financial management is also profit maximisation. Comment. (a) The statement implies that the finance manager has to make his decisions in a manner that the profits are maximised. Each alternative, therefore, is viewed by him as to whether or not it gives maximum profit. Profit maximisation can not be sole objective of a company. It is at best a limited objective. If profit is accorded an undue importance, a number of problems can arise. Some of them have been discussed as follows: (i) The sole objective of profit maximisation generally ignores the risk. Profit maximisation has to be attempted with a realisation of risk involved. There is a direct relationship between risk and profit. Many risky proportions yield high profit. Higher the risk, higher is the possibility of profits. If profit maximisation is the only goal. Then risk factor is altogether ignored. This implies that finance manager will accept highly risky proposals also, if they give high profits. In practice, however, risk is very important consideration and has to be balances with the profit objective. (ii) profit maximisation as an objective does not take into account the time pattern of returns. For example, proposal A may give a higher amounts of profits compared to proposal B yet, if the returns begin to flow 10 years later, proposal B may be preferred which may have lower overall profits but the returns flow is more quick. (iii) Profit maximisation as an objective is too narrow. It fails to take into account the social considerations as also the obligations to various interests to workers, consumers, society, as well as ethical trade practices. If these factors are ignored, a company can not be survive for long. Profit maximisation at the cost of social and moral obligations is a short sighted policy. Hence, a company, which follow profits as its sole objective, may adopt policies yielding exorbitant profits in the sort run which are unhealthy to the growth, survival and overall interest of the business. Thus, a company may not undertake planned and prescribed shut down of the plant simply to maximise its profits in the short run. Hence, it is commonly agreed that the objective of a firm is to maximise its wealth and the value of shares. The above statement is therefore incorrect. 2. Financial forecasting techniques: Forecasting is the starting point in a planning process. The success of forecasting lies in the degree of accuracy as well as the simplicity of the forecasting techniques. Now-a days with the use of computers, highly sophisticated techniques can also be employed in financial forecasting. A few forecasting techniques are briefly considered below:(a) Percent of sales method: The simplest forecasting can be made by estimating the financial needs on a sales forecast. Any change in sales is likely to have an impact an various items of assets and liabilities. Hence, these items are expressed for changes in levels of activity. A sound knowledge of the relation between sales and assets is a prerequisite to the use of the method. This method is more suitable for short term forecasting. (b) Simple regression method: With sales forecast as the starting point and based on the past relationship between sales and assets items, it is possible to construct a line of best fit or the regression line. It is possible to link sales with one item of asset at a time. This method is more suitable for long term forecasting. (c) Multiple regression method: Here sales are assumed to be a function of several variables, while in simple regression only one variable is contemplated. Multiple regression is, therefore, a superior method. The use of a particular financial forecasting method will depend upon the circumstances including the purpose of forecasting and the availability of data. Tools of financial Forecasting:
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(1) Days sales method is a traditional method under which an attempt is made to calculate the number of days sales and tie it up with the balance sheet items. As different components of the balance sheet are forecasted in terms of days sale, this method measures the resources that are to be financed. (2) Percentage of sales method is another tool of financial forecasting in which the balance sheet items are expressed as percentages of sales. This will clearly (to some extent) show the financial needs caused by increase in sales. Simple regression method: On the basis of past relationship between sales and different items, a line of the best fit is drawn. This method requires linking sales with one item at a time. Thus data about different items can be projected with changes in sales level for study and evaluation. Multiple regression method: In this case of simple regression method sales are considered as a function of one variable. Multiple regression line is drawn considering the sales as a function of several variables. A financial analysis may adopt any of the above techniques depending upon the availability of data and purpose of forecasting. 4. It is advantageous to decentralise accounting function while finance function should be centralised. Common on the above statement. Answer: It is well known that Accounting is related to recording and keeping information regarding transactions of business. Management accounting, a branch of accounting is involved in analysing and providing of timely information for planning, control and managerial decision making. With decentralise set up in various organisations, the role of management accountants as a part of decision making process has become the order of the day. Decentralisation reduces the time involved in providing information and enables the accountants to tackle the situation in a better way and become part of the organisation. The other functions of management such as production etc., are also able to appreciate the facts better in a decentralise set up. Hence, it is better to decentralise accounts for operational convenience and better control. The finance function is mainly concerned with procurement and utilisation of funds. This involves more of interaction with top management. This area has become more specialised both in terms of legal requirement and cost effectiveness. The finance function involves more of outside relationship with Bankers, Financial institutions and a lot of others. As the nature of function has become specialised and outside relationship it is better to centralised finance function. The following points more elaborately focus as to whether finance function should be centralised or decentralise. (i) Accounting and finance are two separate functions though there is considerable overlapping between the two. Accounting is primarily concerned with recording and presentation of information periodically whereas finance deals with procurement and utilisation of funds and with supply of funds to all sections of the enterprise. (ii) The question of centralisation or de-centralisation of the accounting and finance functions in a company is therefore to be examined separately. It is quite possible that in one company finance is centralised whereas accounting is de-centralised. It is also possible that in other company both finance and accounting are totally centralised or wholly de-centralised. (iii) A prime consideration in centralising or de-centralising the accounting and finance functions is the basic management philosophy. Management which believe in high centralisation would certainly like that the finance and accounting are centralised. On the other hand, companies working on the principles of de-centralisation often have their various plants organised on an independent basis with the divisional manager having vast powers of decision making, planning and control at the plant level itself. Obviously, in such a case, the accounting function is certainly required to be de-centralised whereas the finance function has to be partly de-centralised. (iv) Another criterion in deciding whether the accounting and finance functions should be centralised or decentralised is the capability of the firm to process information quickly. 5. Describe the interface of Financial Policy with Corporate Strategic Management. Ans. : The two important functions manager are : (.i) allocation of funds (viz. investment decision) and (ii) generation of funds (viz. financing decision). The theory of finance makes two crucial assumptions to provide guidance to the finance manager in making these decisions. These are : 1. The objective of the firm is to maximise the wealth of shareholders. 2. The capital markets are efficient. The corporate finance theory implies that : 1. Owners have the primary interest in the firm. 2. The current value of share is the measure of shareholders wealth. 3. The firm should accept only those investments which generate positive net present values. 4. The firm capital structure and dividend decisions are irrelevant as they are solely guided by efficient capital markets and management has no control over them. However, the theory of finance has undergone fundamental changes over the past. It is felt that finance theory is not complete and meaningful without its linkage with the strategic management. Strategic
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management establishes an efficient and effective match between the firms competence and opportunities with the risk created by the environmental changes. Interface of Financial Policy and Strategic Management : 1. Financial policy required the resource deployments such as materials, labour etc. strategic management considers all markets such as material, labour and capital as imperfect and changing. Strategies are developed to manage the business firm in uncertain and imperfect market conditions and environment. For forecasting, planning and formulation of financial policies, for generation and allocation of resources the finance manager is required to analyse changing market conditions and environment. 2. The strategy focuses as to how to compete in a particular product-market segment or industry. For framing strategy it is considered that the shareholders are not the only interested group in the firm. There are many other influential constituent such as lenders, employees, customers, suppliers etc. The success of a company depends on its ability to service in the product-market environment which is possible only when the company consider to maintain and improve its product-market positions. Such consideration have important implications for framing corporate financial policies. The strategic management is multi-dimensional. It focusses on growth, profitability and flow of funds rather than only on the maximisation of market value of shares. This focus helps the management to create enough corporate wealth for achieving market dominance and the ultimate successful survival of the company. It requires to frame financial policy keeping in view the interest of other parties such as government, employees, society etc. and only of shareholders.
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Hence, the financial policy of a company is closely linked with its corporate strategy. The company strategy establishes an efficient and effective match between its competencies and opportunities and environmental risks. Financial policies of a company should be developed in the context of its corporate strategy. Within the overall framework of the firms strategy, there should be consistency between financial policies investment, debt and dividend. For example, a company can sustain a high growth strategy only when investment projects generate high profits and it follows a policy of low payout and high debt. Source of Finance 1. Export Financing by Banks: Exports being given a top priority in the countrys economic programme, commercial banks render lot of assistance to exporting business houses and industries. Export financing by banks is principally divided into two categories, viz., (I) Pre-shipment finance and (ii) Post-shipment finance. Advance before shipment of goods or pre-shipment finance takes the form of packing credit made available for buying, manufacturing, processing, packing and shipping goods. The interest rates and margin requirements are concessional. Each advance take is required to be liquidated generally within 180 days. Post-shipment finance takes the following forms: 1. Purchase/discounting export bills; 2. Advance against export bills for collection; and 3. Advance against duty drawback/cash compensatory support claims. Normally, facilities granted by banks for export are exempt from many conditions that are attached to other forms of bank finance. Margin Money: Bankers keep a cushion to safeguard against changes in value of securities while expending loans are given to customer. This cushion represents the Margin Money. The quantum of margin money depends upon the credit worthiness of the borrowers and the nature of security. In project cost financing, Margin Money has to come from Promoters contribution. In the case of borrowing for working capital Margin Money has to be provided as per norms that are prescribed from time to time by RBI. In the case of new projects Margin Money required for working capital is included in the Project Cost. Bridge Finance: Bridge finance refers, normally, to loans taken by a business, usually from commercial banks for a short period, perding disbursement of terms loans by financial institutions. Normally, it takes time for the financial
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institution to finalise procedures of a creation of security, tie-up participation with other institutions etc., even though a positive appraisal of the project has been made. However, once the loans are approved in principle, in order not to lose further time in starting their projects, arrange for bridge finance. Such temporary loan is normally rapid out of the proceeds of the principal term loans. Generally the rate of interest on bridge finance is 1% or 2% higher than on normal term loans 4. The promoter is required to provide funds irrespective of whether the project is an existing one or a new venture. Promoters contribution consists of : (a) Share capital to be subscribed by the promoters in the form of equity share capital and/or preference share capital. (b) Equity shares issued as rights shares to the existing shareholders. (c) Convertible debentures issued as rights to existing shareholders. (d) Unsecured loans. (e) Seed capital assistance. (f) Venture capital. (g) Internal cash accruals. In the case of projects established in joint or assisted sector, the contribution of state industrial investment corporation towards share capital is also considered as part of promoters total contribution. The Government of India has classified the locations into three categories-A,B and C such as: Category A as no industrial district Category B as districts where industrial activity has started Category C as districts where industrial activity has gained sufficient ground Generally promoters are expected to contribute minimum 20% of cost of the project in the case of listed and unlisted companies uniformly. However, concessional norms for contributions have been prescribes by All India Financial Institution depending upon whether the project is located in notified (backward) area in category A; B or C districts. Promoters contribution indicates the extent of their involvement in a project in terms of their own financial stake. In case the promoters are unable to raise funds to meet the norms of financial institutions, they can avail the benefit of seed capital assistance under any of the schemes of RDC or IDBI or RCTC etc. The investments made by recognised mutual funds are also considered as promoters contribution provided the investment is covered by non-disposal undertaking or by-back clause. Among different means of finance such as capital incentives, deferred payment guarantees., Lease finance/hire purchasing, term loans from financial institutions in the form of rupee loans and foreign currency loans etc., promoters contribution is one of the most important source of finance. 5. Role of merchant bankers in public issues: During the recent years, the merchant bankers, as an intermediary has been playing an important role on the horizons of Indian capital market. They perform following functions relating to public issues. 1. Drafting of prospectus and getting approved by the appropriate authorities. 2. Appointing, assisting in appointing Bankers, underwriters, brokers, advertisers printers etc. 3. Obtaining the consent of all agencies involved in public issues. 4. Holding Brokers conference/ Issuers conference. 5. Deciding pattern of advertisement. 6. Deciding the branches where application money should be collected. 7. Deciding the dates of opening and closing of the issues. 8. Obtaining daily report of money collected. 9. To get the consent of stock exchange for deciding basis of allotment. 10. To take full responsibility for all administrative matters.
6. Bills discounting as a means of finance: Bills discounting is a sort term source of finance. It can be either supplier bill
(purchase) or for sale of goods. These can be discounted with Financial institutions, Banks and non banking finance companies. The reserve Bank of India and the Central Government have been placing emphasis on developing bills discounting culture. Bills discounting fee is generally taken up-front. To the extent cost should be adjusted to compare
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with other means of financing. Additional cost like stamp duty, bank charges should also be taken into account. However, there is scope for misuse in the forms of accommodation bills. Through bills, it is easier to collect interest for delayed payments. (a) Bought out deals: In a bought out deal existing company off loads part of promoters capital to a wholesaler instead of making a public issue. It can also be a fresh issue of capital by the company in which promoters do not subscribe. Advantages: (i) It is highly useful to small or medium sized company. (ii) The cost of raising funds is low. (iii) Timely availability of funds is ensured. (iv) Premiums can be decided between the company the company and purchaser without going to SEBI. Disadvantages: (i) It lacks transparency. (ii) The scope for misuse is available. 7. Packing credit : Packing credit is an advance made available by banks to an exporter. Any exporter, having at hand a firm export order placed with him by his foreign buyer or an irrevocable letter of credit opened in his favour, can approach a bank for availing of packing credit. An advance so taken by an exporter is required to be liquidated within 180 days from the date of its commencement by negotiation of export bills or receipt of export proceeds in an approved manner. Thus Packing Credit is essentially a short-term advance. Normally, banks insist upon their customers to lodge the irrevocable letters of credit opened in favour of the customer by the overseas buyers. The letter of credit and firms' sale contract not only serve as evidence of a definite arrangement for realisation of the export proceeds but also indicate the amount of finance required by the exporter. Packing Credit, in the case of customers of long standing may also be granted against firm contracts entered into by them with overseas buyers. Packing credit may be of the following types : (a) Clean packing credit : This is an advance made available to an exporter only on production of a firm export order or a letter of credit without exercising any charge or control over raw material or finished goods. It is clean type of export advance. Each proposal is weighed according to particular requirements of the trade and credit worthiness of the exporter. A suitable margin has to be maintained. Also, Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECGC) cover should be obtained by the bank. Packing credit against hypothecation of goods : Export finance is made available on certain terms and conditions where the exporter has pledgeable interest and the goods are hypothecated to the bank as security with stipulated margin. At the time of utilising the advance, the exporter is required to submit, alongwith the firm export order or letter of credit, relative stock statements and thereafter continue submitting them every fortnight and whenever there is any movement is stocks. Packing credit against pledge of goods : Export finance is made available on certain terms and conditions where the exportable finished goods are pledged to the banks with approved clearing agents who will ship the same from time to time as required by the exporter. The possession of the goods so pledged lies with the bank and are kept under its lock and key.
(b)
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Working Capital 1. Over-trading: A firm should always maintain adequate working capital to support its sales activity. Over-trading is a term that is used to indicate a situation where a firm attempts to increase/ maintain sales at high levels without adequate working capital. Normally, over-trading is signified by high capital turnover ratio and low current ratio. The consequences of over-trading will lead to high pressure on liquidity. The firm, in such a case, will find it difficult to pay creditors in time. This in turn, may lead to difficulty in procuring materials and may set in motion a chain reaction slowing down the activity and affecting the working capital cycle. Over-trading must be detected in time. Invariably, the remedial step will be to increase the availability of capital resources to match the increase in level of sales activity.
Tax Shield Education Centre 2. 1. Recommendations of Chore Committee
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Enhancement borrowers contribution: The committee recommended that the borrowers over-dependence on bank credit should be reduced by their contribution to working capital. For this purpose in assessing the permissible bank credit, the borrowers should adopt the second method of lending recommended by the Tandon Committee requiring the borrowers to contribute atleast 25% of the total current assets from their own funds. This would give a minimum current ratio of 1.33: 1. The excess borrowing should be segregated and treated as working capital term loan payable in half-yearly installments within five years. Compulsory periodic review of cash credit limits and submission of quarterly statement: Credit limit of all borrowers having a limit of over Rs. 10 lakhs should be reviewed atleast once a year compulsorily and all borrowers having a limit of Rs. 50 lakhs and above should submit a quarterly statement compulsorily as prescribed by the Committee. No bifurcation of cash credit into demand loan for core portion and fluctuating cash credit component: This was recommended to avoid the differential in interest rate. In cases where cash credit account have already been bifurcated, steps should be taken to abolish the differential interest with immediate effect. Separate limits for peak level and normal non-peak level periods: Bankers should fix separate credit limits wherever feasible for the normal non-peak level as also for the peak level credit requirements indicating the duration of this periods. This level apply to agriculture based industries as well as consumer industries. Drawl of funds to be regulated through quarterly statements: The borrower should indicate before the commencement of each quarter the requirement of the funds i.e. operating limits during the quarter. Drawings less than or in excess of the operative limit so fixed (with a tolerable limit of 10% either way) but not exceeding the sanctioned limit should be deemed to be an irregularity and appropriate corrective steps should be taken. Penalty for default in submission of quarterly statements: A penal interest of 1% p.a. on the total outstanding in the period of default may be levied for default in submission of quarterly statements. At the same time notice should be given to the borrower that if default persists, the bank may freeze the operation of his account. Where a borrower has accounts with more than one bank, the decision will be conveyed to other bank by the bank freezing the account. Adhoc temporary limits: In case of unforeseen circumstances and contingencies, the bank may consider granting Adhoc or temporary limits by changing additional interest of 1% p.a. on these accommodations. Encouragement for bill finance: The banks were advised to convert cash credit limits into bill limits wherever possible. Banks should earmark at least 50% of cash credit for drawee bills, Banks were also advised that a portion of the credit limit for bill acceptance (drawee bills) be utilised only for drawee bills of small scale units to ensure timely payments to them.
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Public deposits as source of working capital fund for companies: In India, public deposits have been an important source of working capital funds for many companies. These are unsecured loans raises from various members of the public subject to the regulatory framework in this regard. For companies, Sec. 58 of the Companies Act, 1956 and Companies (Acceptance of Deposits ) Rules framed thereunder regulate the terms and conditions of acceptance of public deposits. Important among the conditions are: (a) Deposits cannot be accepted without the issue of an advertisement containing prescribed particulars. (b) Limits: Upto 10% of paid-up capital and free reserve in the case of shareholders, and upto 25% of paid-up capital and free reserves in the case of others. Thus at present a company can accept maximum35% of the paid-up capital and free reserves as public deposits. (c) Interest: Subject to ceiling as may be fixed from to time, usually 15% per annum with quarterly rests. (d) Annual return of deposits to be field. Because of periodic fluctuations in availability of bank finance and also on account of cost differential, deposits are mobilised by companies to part-finance their working capital requirements. Hard core working capital: Hard core working capital or core current assets may be defined as that part of the current assets which represents the very minimum level of raw materials, process stock, finished goods, stores, accounts receivable and cash which are in circulation to ensure continuity of production. Thus the core current assets represent a fixed element just like the fixed assets of the company. Such current assets are basically in the nature of circulating assets but are blocked for long term. For example, funds invested in core inventories, comprising process stock plus minimum raw materials, finished goods and stores, are tied on a long-term basis arising out of technological and business considerations, quite like the investment in fixed assets, like machinery and buildings. In relation to inventory, the best stock would be treated as hard core.
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Determination of hard core working capital in different industries would require a careful analysis of the items of inventory, receivables, work-in-progress and cash. 5. Effect of double shift working capital: The following will be the effect of double shift working capital: the following will be the effect of double shift working on working capital: (1) Increase in stocks will be required. But it need not be proportionate to the rise in production since minimum level of stocks may not be very much higher. (2) Work-in-progress would remain the same since work started in the first shift will be completed in the second shift and so on. However, if the second shift workers are paid at a higher rate, there will be change in the amount of work-inprogress. (3) Fixed overheads will remain the same. (4) Variable overheads and semi-variable overheads will increase proportionately. Working capital cycle: This refers to the length of times between the firms paying cash for materials, (creditors) (entering into the production process/stock), and the inflow of cash from debtors (sales). When costs are incurred on labour, Overheads and raw materials, work-in-progress (WIP) is generated. In the production cycle. WIP is converted into finished goods. The finished goods when sold on credit, gets converted into sundry debtors. The debtors are realised after the credit period. This cash is then again used to pay for raw materials, etc. Thus there is a complete cycle from cash to cash. Short-term funds are required to meet the requirement of money during this period. The time period is dependent upon the length of time within which the original cash gets converted into cash again. This cycle is also known as Operating Cycle and can be depicted as follows: Impact of inflation on working capital: The impact of inflation on working capital is direct. For the same quantity of sales, the value of sundry debtors, closing stock etc. Increases as a result of inflation. The valuation of closing stock progressively on higher amounts would result in the company not being able to maintain its operating capability unless its finds extra funds to maintain the same stock level. The higher valuation results in acute shortage of funds as it triggers profit related cash outflows in respect of income tax, dividends and bonus. Unless proper planning is done, the business is likely to face a condition known as technical insolvency.
6.
7.
Cost of Capital & Capital structure 1. Traditional theory of cost of capital: There are broadly, two approaches to determine the capital structure in relation to cost of capital. The older approach is referred to as the traditional theory and the later, called after the names of its propounders, the Miller-Modigliani Theory. Traditional theorists argue: (a) That debt is cheaper than equity because of the tax shield on interest; (b) that, therefore, if debt is increased and equity part decreased, average cost of capital will be reduced. (c) that, however, if debt is increased beyond certain levels, investors will start perceiving greater degree of risk which in tern, will increase expectations and cost of capital; and (d) that, in the light of the above, a solution to the capital structure problem will be in Optimising debt vis-a-vis least rate for average cost of capital. Thus a firm should strive to reach the optional capital structure and increase its total valuation through a judicious use of loan capital. Convertibility of loans into equity: It is the policy of the government of India that loan agreements should contain a convertibility clause for public financial institutions to resort to converting their loans into equity. Detailed guidelines have been prescribed by the Government in this regard. These in sort are: 1. Stipulation of convertibility clause will normally be mandatory in cases where the aggregate financial assistance, including outstanding, from all-India financial institutions exceeds Rs. 5 crores. 2. Convertibility clause need not be stipulated where the combined equity holdings by all-India financial institutions (including the investment institutions such as LIC, GIC, UTI etc.,) exceed 26% in the case of non-MRTP companies and 40% in the case of MRTP companies/ large houses.
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4. 5.
6. 7. 8.
Irrespective of the extent of holdings, the financial institutions will keep the right of conversion in respect of projects involving cumulative assistance of Rs. 5 crores in the event of default in repayment of institutional dues or mismanagement of the affairs of the company. In case of risk units, convertibility clause will be stipulated irrespective of the amount of assistance and the level of share-holding in the assisted company. Convertibility clause will not be stipulated in certain cases-sanctioned for project of MRTP as well as non-MRTP companies being set up in category A areas comprised of NO Industry Districts and Special Regions, assistance under the soft loan scheme and modernisation assistance or for acquiring additional balancing equipment within the existing capacity or for financing small over-runs in respect of projects already financed, loans granted by Indian financial institutions to industrial concerns out of foreign currency lines of credit or funds made available by foreign institutions directly to Indian financial institutions for lending etc. Actual exercise of conversion option need not normally be done when the combined equity holding exceed the limits mentioned above. Conversion option may be exercised, if necessary, on more than one occasion within a period of 3 years from the commencement production expect in the case of sick units. The investment institutions are free to buy shares in the market as part of their normal investment operations even if the combined holdings exceed the percentage mentioned.
3.
Determination of cost of equity capital in a growth company: The calculation of the equity capital cost raises a host of problems. Its purpose is to enable the corporate management to make decisions in the best interest of the equity holders. The management strives to maximise the wealth of the shareholders in all the decisions relating to capital expenditure and financing. The cost of capital indicates the minimum return which must be obtained on the projects for their acceptance. The cost of capital includes cost of equity capital and cost of funds raised from other sources. Any investment decision that results in maximising the present value of the equity owner of a company would be satisfactory to them. The determination of cost of equity capital is to know what rate of return an investor (equity holder) expects to receive on his equity investment. In the case of growth companies, equity shareholders are less concerned with the immediate return. They are more interested in capital appreciation of their share holdings. They purchase shares of a growth company in the hope that future growth prospects Will cause rapid increase in the earnings of the company, thereby increasing market price of shares. These shareholders will ultimately be able to realise substantial capital appreciation. There are four popular methods of determining the cost of equity capital, viz., (I) D/P ratio, (ii) E/P ratio (iii) D/P + g approach, and (iv) Realised yield approach. The cost of equity capital of a growth company may be determined either by D/P + approach or realised yield approach. In the case of D/P + g approach, the following formula may be used for determining cost of equity capital in a growth company: D1 ------- + g P0 Where, D1 = Dividend per share at the end of year 1 P0 = Present market price of share g = Growth rate in dividend per share. This approach lays emphasis on what the investor will actually receive and in the case of companies where expectations of growth are more important, the cost of equity capital may be determined on this basis. Under realised yield approach, the yield actually realised in the past would be considered for determining the cost of equity capital. In case of companies enjoying a steady growth rate, as well as a steady growth rate of dividend, the realised yield approach may be useful.
4.
Modigliani and Miller approach to cost of capital: Modigliani and millers argue that the total cost of capital of a particular corporation is independent of its methods and level of financing. According to them a change in the debtequity ratio does not affect the cost of capital. This is because a change in the debt-equity ratio changes the risk element of the company which in turn changes the expectations of the shareholders from the particular shares of the company. Hence they contend that leverages has little effect on the over-all cost of capital or on the market price. Modigliani and Miller made the following assumptions and the derivations therefrom. Assumptions: 1. Capital markets are perfect. Information is cost less and readily available to all investors; there are no transaction costs; and all securities are infinitely divisible. Investors are assumed to be rational, and to behave accordingly.
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The average expected future operating earnings of a firm are represented by a subjective random variable. It is assumed that the expected values of the probability distributions of all investors are the same. Implied in the MM illustration is that the expected value of the probability distributions of expected operating earnings for all future periods are the same as present operating earnings. 3. firms can be categorized into equivalent return classes. All firms within a class have the same degree of business risk. 4. The absence of corporate income taxes is assumed. Their three propositions are 1. The total market value of the firm and its cost of capital are independent of its capital structure. The total market value of a firm is given by capitalizing the expected stream of operating earnings at a discount rate appropriate for its risk class. 2. The expected yield of a share of stock, Ke, is equal to the capitalization rate of a pure equity stream, plus a premium for financial risk equal to the difference between the pure equity-capitalisation rate and Ki times the ratio B/S. In other words, Ke increases in a manner to exactly offset the use of cheaper debt funds. 3. The cut-off rate for investment purposes is completely independent of the way in which an investment is financed. This proposition along with the first implies a complete separation of the investment and financing decisions of the firm. Conclusion: The theory pronounced by them is based on the prevalence of perfect market conditions which are rare to find. Corporate taxes and personal taxes are reality and they exert appreciable influence over decision making whether to have debt or equity. 5. Cost of preference shares: In the case of Preference shares, the dividend rate can be taken as the cost since it is this which the company intends paying against preference shares. As in the case of debt the issue expenses or discount/premium on issue/redemption has also to be taken into account. As preference dividends are not allowed for tax purposes, the cost remains the same. Thus the cost is calculated by reference to the obligations incurred and proceeds receives. The net proceeds received must considered for working out the cost of capital.
7. Marginal cost of capital: It is the cost of raising an additional rupee of capital. It is derived when the average cost of
capital is computed with marginal weights. The weight represent the proportion of funds the firm intends to employ. The marginal cost of capital is calculated with the intended financing proportion as weights. When the funds are raised in the same proportion and if the component costs remain unchanged, there will be no difference between average cost of capital and marginal cost of capital. The component costs may remain constant upto a certain level and then start increasing. In that case both the average cost and marginal cost will increase but the marginal cost of capital will rise at a faster rate.
8. Under capitalisation: It is a state wherein a company does not have sufficient funds at its disposal to carry on its
activities. The company may not have adequate arrangement for meeting its working capital requirement. This may also happen when some fixed assets is acquired on lease are depleted. In an under-capitalised company, the current ratio will be low, hence liquidity will be low, hence liquidity is in danger. Profitability will be eroded and essential expenditure like repairs, maintenance, advertising, research and development also cannot be incurred. Under this situation, purchases cannot made at a proper time and adequate inventories cannot built up. The entire operating cycle is affected. Hence the company should take immediate steps for arrangement of funds to get rid of a situation of under capitalisation. 8. Stockinvest : This is a new instrument to be used in applying for shares of companies. Under the stockinvest Scheme prepared by various banks, the investor can open an account for a deposit with the concerned bank and request the bank in writing to issue the instrument (called Stockinvest) containing the statement that it is guaranteed for payment at par on all branches. Simultaneously the bank will mark a LIEN on the investors Deposit Account to the extent of the Stockinvest issued. The investor while applying for the public issue will enclose the Stockinvest forms dully filled in along with share application form and send them to the collecting bank as he normally does under the existing system. Stockinvest is not an alternative but an additional faculty available to the investor in case he so opts. The issuing company on the basis of the allotment to the applicant would encash the Stockinvest instrument in respect of those applicants who are successful allottees, the unsuccessful applicants instruments (stockinvest) would be returned to them without enchasing. The scheme is aimed at avoiding blocking of funds of the investors and any complainants from them about non-refund/ delay in refund of share application money. The major advantage of stockinvest is that the investor keeps on getting on his money during the interim period. Pricing of rights share: Provisions of Section 81(1) of the Companies Act, 1956 are applicable in case of issue of Rights Share. The letter of Rights Issue has to be vetted by SEBI. The determination of price of Rights Shares means the
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price at which the rights shares are to be issued. In other words, it requires the determination of the amount of premium at which right shares are to be issued. This premium is determined taking into account the intrinsic worth of the share, the future profit earning capacity of the company and the existing market quotation of the share, if it is issued on the stock exchange. The price of rights share has to be determined keeping in view the following two objectives: (a)The company would like that he issue is fully subscribed by its existing shareholders. For this purpose, it will have to keep the price at a level lower than the existing price being quoted on the stock exchange. For example, if the share is quoted at Rs. 16 at he stock exchange against its face value of Rs. 10, it is obvious that the rights share cannot be issued at a premium of more than Rs. 6. Actually it has to be issues at a lower premium so that the existing shareholders are motivated to subscribe to it. The spread between the market price and the subscription price is of a great importance. When the right shares are issued, the upper limit of the premium is provided by the market price of that issue. The premium has to fixed keeping in view the normal fall in the market price of a share when a rights issue is announced. If the difference between the market price and the issue of right shares is low, a situation may arise when, due to fluctuations in the market, the price of the share may fall below the price at which the right shares are offered. In such situation the rights issue will not be successful since the existing shareholders will prefer to buy the shares from the market. Many companies have come to grief, due to issuing rights share in a falling market. (b) The state of capital market and the trends therein are of utmost importance in determining the premium. The price of rights share must be kept at a level that it absorbs the drop in the market price of the shares arising out of the declaration of the right issue, the normal fluctuations and the drop in the price due to the fact that the number of shares would now be larger than earlier. It must be realised that issue of rights share must take into account the expectations of investors regarding the future outlook of the company. In conclusions it may be said that the pricing of rights share should be such as the shareholders get an advantage even after the dilution of market price of the shares. If the price of the rights shares becomes negative due to the dilution in the market price of share, it is obvious that the shareholders will not subscribe to such shares. 10. Discuss any five factor relevant in determining capital structure. Factors determining capital structure: The following are the five relevant factors which should be kept in view while determining the capital structure of a company. (1) Risk: Risk , cost and control are the major considerations which help the finance manager in determining the capital structure. As a firm raises more debt, its risk of cash insolvency increases. This is due to two reasons. Firstly, higher proportion of debt increases the commitments of the company with regards to fixed charges. Secondly, the possibility that the supplier of funds may withdraw the funds at any given point of time also raises the risk of each insolvency. However, the risk is not there in the case of equity shares. There is also risk of variations in the expected earnings available to equity shareholders. In case of firm has higher debt, the risk of variations in expected earnings available to equity shareholders will be higher. (2) Cost of capital: Cost is an important consideration in capital structure decisions. It is obvious that a business should be at least capable of earning enough revenues to meet its cost of capital and finance its growth. Hence, alongwith risks as a factor, the finance manager has to consider the cost aspect carefully while determining the capital structure. (3) Control: Alongwith risk and cost factors, the controls, the control aspect is also an important element in determining the capital structure. When a company issues further equity shares, it automatically dilutes the controlling interest of the present owners. Similarly, preference shareholders can have voting rights and thereby affect the composition of the Board of Directors in case dividends on such shares are not paid for two consecutive years. Financial institutions normally stipulates that they shall have one or more directors on the Board; obvious that decisions concerning capital structure are taken keeping the control factor in mind. One example of issue of share capital primarily on account of control factor is that of some foreign companies in India, whose further expansions is being allowed by the Government is subject to norms of equity and foreign shareholding as stipulated by the Government and its agencies like SEBI. (4) Trading on Equity: A company may raise funds either by issue of shares or by borrowings. Borrowings carry a fixed rate of interest and this interest is payable irrespective of fact whether there is profit or not. Of course, preference shareholders are also entitled to a fixed rate of dividend but payment of dividend is, subject to the profitability of the company. In case the rate of return (ROI) on the total capital employed i.e. shareholders funds plus long term borrowings, is more than the rate of interest on borrowed funds or rate of dividend on preference shares, it is said that the company is trading on equity. One of the prime objective of a finance manager is to maximise both the return on ordinary shares and the total wealth of a company. This objective has to be kept in view while making a decision on a new source of finance. Thus the effect of each proposed method of new finance on the earnings per share has to be carefully analyses. This, thus, helps in deciding whether funds should be raised by internal equity or by borrowings. (5) Tax consideration: Under the Income Tax laws, dividend on shares is not deductible while interest paid on borrowed capital is allowed as deduction. Cost of raising finance through borrowing is deductible in the year in which it is
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incurred. If it is incurred during the pre-commencement period, it is to be capitalised. Cost of issue of shares is allowed as deduction in 10 years. Owing to these provisions corporate taxation plays an important role in determining the choice between different sources of financing. Besides the above, the following factors are also relevant in determining capital structure. (6) Government Policy: Government policies are major in determining capital structure. For example, a change in the financial pattern to be followed in the companies. Similarly, the Rules and Regulations framed by SEBI considerably affect the capital issue policy of various companies. Monetary and fiscal policies of the Government also affect the capital structure decisions. (7) Legal requirements: The finance manager has to keep in view the legal requirements while deciding about the capital structure of the company. (8) Marketability: To obtain a balanced capital structure it is necessary to consider the ability of the company to market corporate securities. (9) Maneuver-ability: Maneuverability is required to have as many alternatives as possible at the time of expanding or contracting the requirements of funds. It enables use of proper type of funds available at a given time and also enhances the bargaining power when dealing with the prospective suppliers of funds. (10) Flexibility: Flexibility refers to the capacity of the business and its management to adjust to expected and un-expected change in circumstances. In other words, management would like to have a capital structure which provides maximum freedom to change at all times. (11) Timing : Closely related to flexibility in determining issue of securities is the factor of timing. Proper timing of a security issue often being substantial savings because of the dynamic nature of capital market. Intelligent management tries to anticipate the climate in capital market with a view to minimising the cost of raising funds and also minimising the dilution resulting from an issue of new ordinary shares. (12) Size of the company: Smaller companies heavily rely on owners funds while large companies are generally considered to be less risky by the investors and therefore, they can issue different types of securities. (13) Purpose of financing: The purpose of financing also to some extent affects the capital structure of the company. In case funds are required for productive purposes like manufacturing etc., the company may raise funds through long term sources. On the other hand, if the funds are required for non-productive purposes, like welfare facilities to employees such as schools, hospitals etc., the company may rely only on internal resources. (14) Period of finance : The period for which finance is required also affects the determination of capital structure. In case funds are required for long term requirements say 8 to 10 years, it will be appropriate to raise borrowed funds. However, if the funds are required more or less permanently, it will be appropriate to raise them by issue of equity shares. (15) Cash flow ability of the company and nature of enterprise : The nature of enterprise also to a great extent affects the capital structure of the company. Business enterprises which have stability in their earnings or which enjoy monopoly regarding their products may go for borrowings or preference shares since they are having adequate profits to pay interest/fixed charges. On the contrary, companies which do not have assured income should preferably rely on internal resources to a larger extent. (16) Requirement of investors : Different types of securities are issued to different classes of investors. (17) Provision for future : While planning capital structure the provision for future is also to be made. A finance manager has to design the capital structure within above constraints. 11. Hilliers Model for Risk Analysis: Hillier argues that the uncertainty or the risk associated with a capital expenditure proposal is shown by the standard deviation of the expected cash flows. In other words, the more certain a project is, lesser would be the deviation of various cash flows from the mean cash flows. Let us take the example of a bank deposit where the rate of interest is stipulated subject to changes in the Reserve Bank Regulations. It is also known with a fair degree of certainty that even if the rate of interest is revised downwards, the existing deposits will normally be protected. Similarly, it is known that if the rate of interest is revised upwards there is some probability that the existing deposits may also be covered. Now there are at best two or three possible cash flows: the first at the contracted rate of interest, the second at the a rate of interest one step higher and third at a rate of interest two step higher. It is quite obvious that the standard deviation of this proposal whereby the same money is invested in a small scale unit exporting garments. In the later case there are a large number of variables which would affect the cash inflows and therefore, the range of cash inflows would be much larger in number resulting in a higher standard deviation. Hillier thus argues that working out the standard deviation of a various ranges of cash flows would be helpful in the process of taking cognizance of uncertainty involved with future projects. Hillier has developed a model to evaluate the various alternative cash flows that may arise from a capital expenditure proposal. He takes into account the mean of present value of the cash flows and the standard deviation of such cash flows, which may be determined with the help of the following formulae:
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Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) : CAPM provides a conceptual frame work for evaluating any investment decision where capital is committed with a goal of producing future returns. Important assumptions in CAPM are : i. There is an efficient market meaning existence of competitive market where financial securities and capital assets are brought and sold with full information of risk and return available to all participants. ii. There exists rational investment goals. iii. All assets are divisible and liquid assets. iv. Investors are free to borrow at riskless rate of interest. v. Securities can be exchanged without payment of brokerage, commission or taxes and without any transaction costs. vi. Securities or capital assets face no bankruptcy or insolvency. CAPM can be used to expected return of any portfolio with the following formula. E(Rp) = Rf + Bp [ E (Rm) - Rf ] E(Rp) = Expected return of the portfolio. Rf = Risk free rate of return. Bp = Portfolio Beta i.e. market sensivity index. R(Rm) = Expected return on market portfolio. E(Rm) - Rf = Market risk premium Capital Budgeting 1. Internal rate of return: It is that rate at which discounted cash inflows are equal to the discounted cash outflows. In other words, it is the rate which discounts the cash flows to zero. It can be stated in the form of a ratio as follows:Cash inflows Cash outflows = 1 This rate is to be found by trial and error method. This rate is used in the evaluation of investment proposals. In this method, the discount rate is not known but the cash outflows and cash inflows are known. In evaluating investment proposals, Internal rate of return is compared with a required rate of return, known as cut-off rate. If it is more than cut-off rate, the project is treated as acceptable; otherwise project is rejected. Desirability Factor: One of the method of comparing two alternative proposals of capital expenditure is desirability factor or usually known as profitability index. It is more relevant when we have to compare a number of proposals each involving different amount of cash flows. Desirability factor is calculated as follows: Sum of discounted net cash inflows Initial cash outlay. Suppose we have three projects X,Y,Z, each involving an outlay of Rs 50,000, Rs 75,000 and Rs 1,00,000 respectively. Further, the sum of the discounted cash inflows from these projects are Rs 60,000, Rs. 1,25,000 respectively. The desirability factors of these projects come to 1.2, 1.267 and 1.25 respectively. In this terms of absolute NPV of Rs 25,000 whereas in terms of desirability factor, Project Y which shows the highest profitability index, should be preferred. Thus desirability factor helps in ranking various projects, particularly when a situation a situation of capital rationing prevails.
2.
Budget: 1. Zero Base Budgeting: Zero based budget starts from a concept of Nil budget. All items are treated as new and each function, process, project or activity is critically evaluated and justified through cost-benefit analysis. The expenses are taken in the budget only thereafter. This approach differs from conventional budgeting as figures for the current year in a conventional budget are based in the figures for previous years and the trend disclosed. To prepare Zero Based Budget it is necessary to (1) define objectives; (2) ignore existing budget; (3) prepare fresh budget bit by bit from the scratch; (4) do critical appraisal of each action/expenditure: and (5) match the most effective Budget with the objectives. Flexible Budget: This budget is designed to change with changes in levels of activity attained. The Budget shows how costs vary with changes in activity levels. The segregation of costs into fixed, variable and semi-variable is necessary to construct the flexible budget. It is assumed that fixed costs will remain fixed only upto a certain level of activity and after certain level they may tend to vary, though not like variable costs. The formation of flexible budgets will enable the enterprise to know its different levels of activity.
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1. 2. 3. 4. 3.
Flexible budgets are desirable in the following cases: Where sales are unpredictable e.g. luxury and semi-luxury trades. Where in the case of new venture, it is not possible to foresee precisely public demand e.g. Fashions and novelty trade. Where the business is seasonal-e.g. soft drinks. Where progress depends on adequate supply of labour but labour is the key factor in that area.
Fixed Versus Flexible Budget: The idea of introducing budgets in a business organisation is to exercise control over day-to-day operation of the business. Control, in order to be effective, requires a standard or a target with which actual performance can be compared for the purpose of measurement of the results for timely action, if necessary. Such standard should take into consideration the characteristics and behaviour of cost. Cost is compared of different elements; behaviour of such element of cost has to be given due recognition is setting standards of fixing budget estimates. Insofar as direct materials and direct labour are concerned, standards can be set as so much per unit of output because these vary in direct proportion to output. Overheads however pose a big problem because of two special characteristics: (a) certain items of overhead costs are common costs with regard to individual lots of units of products and, (b) certain other items of overhead cost include fixed elements that do not vary in strict proportion to changes in production volume. The presence of common costs necessitates the selection of apportionment ratio based on the standard derived from departmental figures rather than the standard of output. Similarly, expenses will remain the same between two level of output. In view of these two reasons, an average standard overhead cost per unit of output will not provide the manager an adequate basis for control comparisons. This has led to the development of flexible budgets. Fixed budget: A budget prepare on the basis of a standard or a fixed level of activity is called a fixed budget. It does not change with the change in the level of activity. In reality, it is however, in effective and meaning less primarily because the actual capacity utilisation varies from time to time. It is a self contained and self identified single budget. Unlike the flexible budget, it does not show changes in costs according to the level of activity. Expenses, therefore, at are not classified into fixed, semi-variable and variable and as such, there is hardly any need for the detailed analysis of each expenses item. A specific level of activity or standard is determined and expenses are estimated at that level. However, in estimating the expenses at specific level of activity operational plans and analysis of historical costs is done. The level of activity at which the expenses are estimated in fixed budgets is determined by the production budget. Flexible Budget: Institute of Cost and Management Account (ICMA) London terminology defines a flexible budget as a budget which, by Recognising the difference between fixed, semi-variable and variable costs is designed to change in relation to the level of activity attained. A fixed budget, on the other hand is a budget which is designed to remain unchanged irrespective of the level of activity actually attained. In a fixed budgetary control, budgets are prepare for one level of activity, where in a flexible budgetary control system, a series of budgets are prepared one for each of a number of alternative production levels or volumes. Flexible budgets represent the amount of expenses that is reasonably necessary to achieve each level of output specified. In other words, the allowances given under flexible budgetary control system serve as standard for what costs should be at each level of output. Need: The need for preparation of flexible budgets arises in the following circumstances: (i) seasonal fluctuations in sales an/or production- for example, in soft drinks industry; (ii) a company which keeps on introducing new products or make changes in the design of its products fluently; (iii) Industries engaged in make-to-order business like ship building; (iv) an industry which is influenced by changes in fashion; and (v) general changes in sales. Lease financing 1. Finance Lease: A lease is classified as a finance lease if it sources for the lessor the recovery of his capital outlay plus a return on the funds invested during the lease term. Such a lease is normally non-cancellable and the present value of the minimum lease payments at the inception of the lease exceeds or is equal to substantially the whole of the fair value of the leased asset. In general terms, a finance lease can be regarded as any leasing arrangement whose principal purpose is to finance the use of equipment for the major part of its useful life. The lessee has the right to use the equipment while the lessor retains legal title. Separation of use and ownership for financing purposes is the essential feature of a finance lease.
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Credit Rating of Customers: When a firm wants to give credit to a new customer or increase credit to existing customers, it ought to steady the risk of customer defaulting and the customers ability to stand such credit. Such study is referred to as credit rating. Credit rating of a customer involves finding answers to two broad questions regarding the customer, viz., (I) can he pay and (ii) Will he pay? The former question is regarding the ability or financial soundness while the later is a question of attitude of customer to his payment obligations. Broadly speaking, the steps involved in credit rating are: (I) Analysis of customers financial statements and (ii) obtaining reference reports from customers bank and business associates. There are two board ways of doing an exercise in credit rating, viz., (I) doing it internally by a team within the firm; (ii) doing it through external specialised agencies. In foreign countries specialised agencies are engaged in the task of providing rating information regarding individual parties. Dun and Bradstreet is one such agency which reports on the creditworthiness of various businessmen. Credit rating facilities the job of a sales manager as he can judge the creditworthiness of his customer by referring to his credit rating.
Factoring : Factoring is a new financial service that is presently being developed in India. Factoring involves provision of specialised services relating to credit investigation, sales ledger management, purchase and collection of debts, credit protection as well as provision of finance against receivables and risk bearing. In factoring, accounts receivables are generally sold to a financial Institution (a subsidiary of commercial bankcalled Factor), who charges commission and bears the credit risks associated with the accounts receivables purchased by it. Its operation is very simple. Clients enter into an agreement with the factor working out a factoring arrangement according to his requirements. The factor then takes the responsibility of monitoring, following up, collection and risk taking and provision of advance. The factor generally fixes up a limit customer-wise for the client (seller). Factoring offers the following advantages which makes it quite attractive to many firms : (1) The firm can convert accounts receivables into cash without bothering about repayment. (2) Factoring ensures a definite pattern of cash in flows. (3) Continuous factoring virtually eliminates the need for the credit department. That is why receivables financing through factoring is gaining popularity as useful source of financing short terms requirements of business enterprises because of the inherent advantage of flexibility it affords to the borrowing firm. The seller firm may continue to finance its receivables on a more or less automatic basis. It sales expand or contract, it can vary the financing proportionately. (4) Unlike an unsecured loan, compensating balances are not required in this case. Another advantage consist of relieving the borrowing firm of substantially credit and collection costs and to a degree from a considerable part of cash management. However, factoring as a means of financing is comparatively costly source of financing since its cost of financing is higher than the normal lending rates. 2. 4. Discuss the sources of information to be obtained before granting credit to a party. Answer: A firm has to evaluate the credit Worthiness of a customer before granting him credit, For this purpose, a credit manager obtains information from various sources. The following are the important sources: Trade references: The prospective customers may be require to give two or three trade references. He may give a list of personal acquaintances or some other existing credit-worthy customers. The credit manager can send a short questionnaire to the referees seeking the relevant information. Bank references: Sometimes the customer is asked to request his banker to provide the required information. However, bankers in India normally refuse to give detailed and unqualified credit reference. Credit bureau reports: In some cases the associations for specific industries maintain credit bureaus which provide useful and authentic credit information for their members. Past experience: In case of an existing customer, past experience of his account would be a valuable source of essential data for scrutiny and interpretation. A shrewd manager can look into the account carefully and try to find out the credit risk involved. Published financial statements: Sometimes published financial statements can be examined to see the credit worthiness of a customer. Further if a customers name appears in the list of approved suppliers of a Government agency like D.G.S. & D or other reputed organisations, it can be takes as a plus point.
1.
2. 3. 4.
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Salesmens interview and reports: First hand information through personal contact can also aid in judging the credit rating of a customer. Many companies evaluate the credit-worthiness of their customers by consulting salesmen or sales representatives. For proper determination of credit limit of customers, the salesmen should also ascertain the potential sales which the customers can effect to the ultimate customers.
5. Credit cards: Credit cards are primarily seen as a means of convenience in meeting ones expenses. A person who
holds a credit card need not pay in cash at the time of every expenditure. Instead he can deposit a lump sum in the bank or the agencies of which he holds the credit card, to meet the expenditures. Some banks offer even flexible payment options under which a card holder may be requires to pay as low as 10% of the amount due to the month. Thus though credit card started as a substitute for cash and the resultant safety and convenience, the competition in this business has made credit cards a source of short-term finance also for individuals. An insurance cover against loss of life during air travel or in any other accident is also occurred to card holders. The amount of insurance cover offered could be as high as Rs. 10 lakhs. Credit cards enable a person to track and document all his expenses. The simple monthly statements are a good periodic summary of all expenses incurred by the card holder. Credit cards issued by some banks do not have any pre-set spending limits. The spending and payment patterns determine how much a person will be able to spend. If the payments are made within the due date, then there are no extra charges. 6. Concentration Banking: Concentration Banking Is one of the methods for speeding up the process of collecting receivables. The helps in reducing the size of the float. In this method, a number of strategic collection centres in different regions are established instead of a single collection point. The system reduces the time period between the time a customer mails his remittances and the time when the funds become available for spending with the company. Payments received by the different collection centres are deposited with their respective local banks which in turn transfer all surplus funds to the concentration bank of the head office. The bank with which the company has its major bank account is normally located at the Head office.
7.
Commercial paper: It is a sort term unsecured promissory note sold by large business firms to raise cash. These are sold either directly or through dealers. Companies with high credit rating can sell commercial papers directly to investors. In India the introduction of sort-term commercial papers was recommended by a working Group on the money market, appointed by the Reserve Bank of India in 1986. The main conditions for issue of commercial paper are: (i) The working capital (fund based) limit of a company should not be less than Rs 10 crores. (ii) The denomination could be in multiples of Rs 5 lakhs subject to a minimum investment by a single investor of Rs 25 lakhs (par value). (iii) Aggregate amount to be raised by issue of commercial paper should not exceed 30% of the companys working capital limit. (iv) The currency of the instrument is 3-6 months.
(v) Credit rating of the company issuing commercial paper should not be below P1 by CRISIL.
Cash management 1. Different kinds of float with reference to management of Cash : The term float is used to refer to the periods that affect cash as it makes through the different stages of the collection process. Four types of float can be identified as : (i) Billing float : An invoice is the formal document that a seller prepare and sends to the purchaser as the payment request for the goods sold or services provided . The time between the sales and the mailing of the invoice is the billing float. (ii) Mail float : This is the time when a cheque is being processed by post office, messenger service or other means of delivery. (iii) Cheque processing float : This is the time required for the seller to sort, record and deposit the cheque after it has been received by the company. (iv) Bank processing float : This is the time from the deposit of the cheque to the crediting of funds in the seller account.
Dividend Policy 1. Walters approach to dividend policy:- The formula given by Prof. James E. Walter shows how the dividend policy can be used to maximise the wealth position of ht equity holders. He argues that in the long run, the share prices reflect only
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the present value of the expected dividends. Retention influence share prices reflect only through their effect on further . The relationship between dividend and share price can be shown on the basis of the following formula Ra D+ ------- (E-D) Rc Vc = ----------------------------------Rc Where Vc = Market value of the ordinary shares of the company. Ra = Return on internal retention, i.e. the rate company earns on retained profits. Rc = Capitalisation rate i.e., the rate expected by the investors by way of return from the particular category of shares. E= Earnings per share. D = Dividend per share. A close study of the formula would indicate that: Professor Walter emphasizes two factors which influence the market price of a share. The first is the dividend per share and the second is the relationship between internal return on retained earnings and the market expectation from that company as reflected in the capitalisation rate. In other words, if the internal return on retained earnings is higher than the market capitalisation rate, the value of the ordinary shares would be high even if the dividends are low. However, if the internal return within the business is lower than what the market expects, the value of the share would be low. In such a case, the share holders would prefer that a higher dividend is declared so that they can utilise the funds in more profitable opportunities elsewhere.
2.
Walters approach to dividend: The formula given by Prof. James E. Walter shows how the dividend can be used to maximise the wealth position of shareholders. Prof. Walter emphasises that, in the long run, the relationship between the rate of return on investment (ROI) and the rate of market expectation is important to the investors. Thus (a) in a company where the rate expected by investors (ROI) is higher than market capitalisation rate, shareholders would accept low dividends and (b) in a company where the ROI is lower than market capitalisation rate, shareholders would prefer higher dividend show that they can utilise the funds so obtained elsewhere in more profitable opportunities. The relationship between dividend and share price on the basis of Walters formula is as follows: D+Ra/Rc(E-D) Vc = --------------------Rc Where: Vc =Market value per share Ra = Rate of return on retained earnings Rc = Market capitalisation rate. E = Earnings per share D = Dividend per share If Ra is greater than 1, lower dividend will maximise the value per share and vice versa. Prof. Walters theory is criticised because it does not consider all the factors affecting dividend policy and share prices. 2. The important factors in determination of the dividend policy of a firm. (i) Dividend payout ratio: A major aspect of the dividend policy of a firm is its Dividend Payout (d/p) ratio, i.e. the percentage share of the net earnings distributed to shareholders as dividends. Since dividend policy of the firm affects both the shareholders wealth and the long term growth of the firm, an optimum dividend policy should strike out a balance between current dividends and future growth which maximises the price of the firms shares. The D/P ratio of a firm should be determines with reference to two basic objectives- maximising the wealth of the firms owners and providing sufficient funds to finance growth/expansion plans.
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(ii) Stability of dividends: Stability of dividends is another major aspect of dividend policy. The term dividend stability refers to the consistency or lack of variability in the stream of future dividends. Precisely, it means that a certain minimum amount of dividend is paid out regularly. (iii) Legal, contractual and internal constraints and restrictions : The firms dividend decision is also affected by certain legal Contractual and internal requirements and commitments. Legal factors stem from certain statutory requirements, contractual restrictions arise from certain loan covenants and internal constraints are the result of the firms liquidity position. Though legal rules do not require a dividend declaration, they specify the conditions under which dividend can be declared. Such conditions pertain to (a) capital impairment, (b) net profits, (c) insolvency, (d) illegal accumulation of excess profit and, (e) payment of statutory dues before declaration of dividends. (iv) Tax consideration: The firms dividend policy is directed by the provisions in income-tax law. If a firm has a large number of owners, in high tax bracket, its dividend policy may be to have higher retention. As against this if the majority of shareholders are in lower tax bracket requiring regular income the firm may resort t higher dividend payout, because they need current income and the greater certainty associated with receiving the dividend now, instead of the less certain prospect of capital gains later. (v) Capital market considerations: If the firm has easy access to capital market for the fund raising, it may follow a policy of declaring liberal dividend. However, if the firm has only limited access to capital markets, it is likely to adopt low dividend payout ratio. Such firms are likely to rely more heavily on retained earnings. (vi) Inflation : Lastly, inflation is also one of the factors to be reckoned with at the time of formulating the dividend policy. With raising prices, accumulated depreciation may be inadequate to replace obsolete equipments. These firms have to rely upon retained earnings as a source of funds to make up the near future. Consequently, their dividend payout ratio tends to be low during periods of inflation. 4. The factors affecting dividend policy are discussed below: 1. Legal organisations: The provisions of the Companies Act, 1956 must be kept in mind since they provide a major dimension to the dividend decision. Section 205 of the Companies Act prescribes the quantum of distributable profits. In fact, the legal restrictions follow the basic principles of accounting and the underlying purpose of such restrictions is to ensure that the company keeps its capital intact before declaring dividends. There are certain receipts which cannot be distributed as dividends under any circumstances. Further the provisions of the Income-tax Act, Specially as they relate to closely held companies (Sections 104 to 109), may also be seen. In 1975, the Company Law Board issued certain rules regarding the payment of dividend out of reserves and the transfer of profits to reserves over the above a stipulated amount. All these provisions provide the legal framework within which the dividend policy has to be formulated. In effect, these provisions provide the upper limit of the dividend decision. Under no circumstances, is it possible to declare a dividend higher than the amount legally permissible 2. Stability of earnings: Once the legal considerations relating to. dividend policy have been examined, the next question is to study the nature of earnings. If many companies the earnings may fluctuate greatly over different years with change in business circumstances. In many other companies, the earnings may be relatively stable. For a company which has violently fluctuating earnings, it would be a better policy to consider earnings on an average basis over a given cyclical period to declare dividend. Otherwise the dividend may show a highly fluctuating pattern consequent upon the earnings of the company. 3. Opportunities for reinvestment and growth: It is said that given the current level of earnings, the dividend decision is a by-product of the capital budget. This implies that a company which sees a high growth potential for itself and, therefore, requires a large amount of founds for financing growth, will declare lower dividends to conserve resources and maintain its debts equity ratio at a proper level. If, however, a company does not have immediate requirement for funds, it may decide to declare high dividends. 4. Cashflow: Since each payment of dividend involves a cash outflow, a dividend decision has to be seen with reference to its effect on the cash position of the company. Legally, a company can even borrow cash in order to pay dividends. However, from the point of view of financing prudence, a company must consider its cash requirements before declaring a dividend. In case, it has a stained liquidity position, it may declare a lower dividend. 5. Effect on market prices: The dividend rate also has an effect on the market price of the share of the company. The quantum of dividend is an important factor in the calculation of the value of shares of a company by the investors. No doubt, the behaviour of market prices is very difficult to comprehended in terms of simple relationships. it is basically a function of many factors involving mass psychology, economics and financial management, etc. Still, dividend decision is one of the major factors which affect the market price of the shares. proof. Walter has tried to analyse the
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factors behind the market price of a share and relate them to the present dividend decision and the internal profitability of the retained earnings. Formulae have shown that higher dividends normally have a salutary effect on the market price. Other factors: There are many other factors also, such as level of inflation in the economy, tax status of major shareholders, dividend policy of the other firms in the same industry, attitude of management, no dilution of existing control, fear of being branded inefficient or conservative etc., which affect the dividend policy of a company. Leverage: 1. Business risk and financial risk: Business risk (sometimes also referred to as operating risk) refers to the variability of earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) as a result of environment in which a company operates. The environment consist of company specific factors, industry specific factors and economy specific factors, internal and external. The earnings before interest and taxes of a firm are thus subject to many influences. These influences may be peculiar to the firm, some are common to all the firms in the industry and some are related to the general economic conditions that affect all the firms. In an uncertain world, EBIT in any period can turn out to be higher or lower than expected. Thus uncertainty with respect to EBIT often is referred to as business risk. Every business is subject to this risk. One major source of business risk is business cycle- the periods of business boom and recession. Other sources of business risk are technological changes, obsolescence, government policies, actions of competitors, shift in consumer preferences, changes in prices, other unknown events and happenings, etc. The incidence of business risk is, therefore, unavoidable and not within the control of the firm. The degree of operating leverage measured by the formula, Contribution --------------------is an index of business risk. Operating profit (EBIT) Business risk is only a part of the total risk carried by the business. Other part of the risk is known as financial risk. Financial risk is related with the financing decisions or decisions or capital mix of a business. Two businesses exposed to the same degree of business risk can differ in respect or financial risk when they adopt different forms of financing. Financing risk is an avoidable and controllable risk because it is associated with a capital structure decision of the firm. For example, if a business were to decide not to use debt capital in its capital structure, it will not have any financial risk. The presence of debt In the capital structure implies debt service obligations for the firm and thereby constitutes this type of risk. The extent of financial risk can be measured by a computing debt-equity ratio, interest coverage ratio and financing leverage ratio. Often, the degree of financing leverage measured by the formula, Operating profit (EBIT) ----------------------------------is used as an index of financial risk. Earnings before tax (EBT) Illustrate the effect of increase in capital turnover ratio on net profit and operating leverage. (a) While different accounting ratios convey separate messages about different aspects of the enterprises, an intelligent analyst would remember that the several ratios are inter-connected. For example, the rate of return on investment (ROI) is derived as follows: Sales Net Profit ROI=---------------- x ---------------- x 100 Capital Sales Net Profit --------------- x 100 Capital It is seen from the above that ROI is the multiple of capital turnover ratio and net profit ratio. Therefore, an increase/decrease in either of the ratios would affect ROI. In fact an increase in capital turnover ratio means generating more sales with a given amount of capital (or relatively less amount of capital). The larger sales volume would yield higher amount of net profit, provided the selling price and cost structure remains unchanged and would increase the ROI. This illustrated below:Situation 1 Situation 2 Rs. Rs. Sales 300 400 Capital 100 100 Net profit 24 64 Ratios
2.
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Capital turnover ratio 3 4 Net profit ratio(%) 8 16 ROI(%) 24 64 It can be seen from the above that when capital turnover ratio increased from 3 to 4, net profit increased from Rs. 24 to Rs. 64. It indicates that an increase in capital turnover ratio would cause an increase in net profit, other things remaining the same. Further, the division of costs into variable and fixed brings in a new element in the analysis. When an enterprises improves capital turnover ratio, the fixed costs being stationary, the increase in profit ratio is more than proportionate to the increase in sales. This phenomenon is referred to as the operating leverage. To illustrate the effect of increase in capital turnover ratio on operating leverage, we may assume as below: Situation 1 Situation 2 Rs. Rs. Sales 300 400 Variable costs (60% of sales) 180 240 Contribution 120 160 Fixed costs 96 96 Net profit 24 64 Capital 100 100 Capital turnover ratio 3 4 Operating leverage Contribution i.e. -----------------5 2.5 Net profit * *It may be noted that net profit represents operating profit. From the above, one can see that when capital turnover ratio increases, operating leverage decreases. In the above case, if the capital turnover ratio increases by 1/3, the operating leverage drops by 1/2. The above analysis also explains the phenomenon of operating leverage. When operating leverage drops by 1/2 net profit ratio increases by 100%. In other words, 1% increase in sales would result in 5% increase in profit. In the above example, sales have increased by 33.3% and accordingly profit has gone up by 167%. The utility of a study of the inter-relationship of the ratios will lie in a quick understanding of the effect of managerial decisions on the various aspects of the business.

Working Capital Management

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What are the components of working capital?

What are the components of working capital?

How is working capital requirement calculated?

How is working capital requirement calculated?

Tax Shield Education Centre Working Capital management Advanced Concepts and Techniques Working capital = Current assets

WORKING CAPITAL LEVERAGE

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CA . TA - CA If there is an increase in current assets, rather than a decrease, WCL = CA . TA + CA

Duration of the Work-in-Process Stage : progress stage. It may be measured as : Dwip =

= 300 = 24 days 12.5 = 180 = 10 days 18 = 300 = 15 days 20 = 180 = 18 days 10

may be calculated using the formula described in the previous section.

Wwip Wfg War Wap

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Wjg = War = Wap =

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Therefore, the percentage increase in ROCE will be : E . - E = W . C- W C C- W Thus, L = W . C- W = W . x W. = W . W C- W W C- W W (1)

MAFA-9 6,00,000 . 8,00,000

2. Frequently ordering weekly deliveries 3. Weekly control reports

Moderate control (by middle level management).

Less control (by lower level management)

Rules regarding E.O.Q (1) EOQ=

EOQ under inflation EOQ =

(i) (ii) (iii)

Establishing the Optimal Cash Conversion Size

Rs.50,000 Rs.2,000 Rs.7,500

1,00,000 4,000 3,750

1,50,000 6,000 2,500

2,00,000 8,000 1,875

2,50,000 10,000 1,500

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Graphic Solution to the Baumol Model

Changes in Cash Balance

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3 (1600) (5000)2 + 50,000 = 94,962.5 4 x 0.00033

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(i) (ii) 10.

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Tax Shield Education Centre Customer buys DM with $

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$2.0015 $2.0030 0.075 1.9996 2.0013 1,9989 2,0008 1.9973 1.9995

$0.6963 $0.6969 0.086 0.085 0.6967 0.095 0.6972 0.110 0.6988

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RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FORWARD RATE AND THE FUTURE

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Expected change In home currency value of Foreign currency (%)

2 3 4 forward premium (+) or discount (-) on foreign currency (%)

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