U.S.

-China Rivalry: Factual and Research-Based Points

1. Economic Competition

 Trade War (2018-Present): The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to
retaliatory tariffs by China. The U.S. trade deficit with China was $310.8 billion in 2023
(U.S. Census Bureau).
 Technological Rivalry: The U.S. restricted Chinese tech firms (Huawei, TikTok) over
national security concerns, while China aims for "Made in China 2025" to dominate
high-tech industries.
 Global Trade Leadership: China is the world’s largest trading nation and a key
member of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), challenging U.S.
economic dominance.

2. Military and Strategic Competition

 South China Sea Dispute: The U.S. opposes China’s militarization of artificial islands,
supporting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), while China claims
sovereignty over 90% of the sea (Nine-Dash Line).
 Taiwan Tensions: The U.S. follows the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) and provides
military aid to Taiwan, while China insists on "One China" and has increased military
drills near Taiwan.
 AUKUS & QUAD Alliances: The U.S. strengthened security ties with Australia and the
UK (AUKUS) and revived the QUAD alliance (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) to
counter China’s Indo-Pacific ambitions.

3. Technological and Cyber Warfare

 Semiconductor War: The U.S. imposed export bans on advanced chips and
semiconductor technology (e.g., ASML, NVIDIA), affecting China’s AI and military
advancements.
 Cyber Espionage: Reports (e.g., Mandiant, FBI) highlight China’s cyber-attacks on U.S.
firms and government institutions for intelligence and economic theft.

4. Ideological and Diplomatic Conflicts

 Human Rights Concerns: The U.S. criticizes China’s policies in Xinjiang (Uyghur
repression), Hong Kong (National Security Law), and Tibet, while China sees it as
Western interference.
 Global Influence (Belt and Road Initiative - BRI): China has funded $1 trillion+ in
infrastructure projects across 150+ countries, challenging U.S. global influence.
 UN and Multilateralism: China’s growing influence in WHO, UNHRC, IMF, and
World Bank shifts global power dynamics away from U.S.-led institutions.
5. Space and AI Competition

 Space Race: China’s Tiangong Space Station and moon exploration missions (Chang’e
program) challenge U.S. space dominance (NASA, Artemis program).
 AI Dominance: China leads in facial recognition, AI surveillance, and quantum
computing, while the U.S. controls major AI firms like OpenAI and Google DeepMind.

6. Economic Decoupling & De-risking

 "China Plus One" Strategy: The U.S. and allies shift manufacturing to Vietnam, India,
and Mexico to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains.
 U.S. Investment Restrictions: The U.S. banned investments in Chinese AI, quantum
computing, and semiconductor firms (Biden’s Executive Order, 2023).

7. Future Outlook

 The Biden-Xi summits (2022, 2023) signal attempts to stabilize relations, but core issues
remain unresolved.
 China's slowing economy (2.3% GDP growth in Q1 2024) and U.S. political shifts (2024
elections) will shape the rivalry’s next phase.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a permanent intergovernmental international

organization established on June 15, 2001, in Shanghai, China. Its primary objectives include
strengthening mutual trust and good-neighborly relations among member states, promoting
effective cooperation across various sectors, and ensuring peace, security, and stability in the
region.

eng.sectsco.org

Organizational Structure of the SCO:

1. Council of Heads of State (CHS): The supreme decision-making body that meets
annually to discuss and set the organization's strategic objectives and priorities.

britannica.com

2. Council of Heads of Government (CHG): Convenes annually to deliberate on strategies

for multilateral cooperation, particularly in economic and developmental spheres, and to
approve the organization's budget.

britannica.com

3. Council of Foreign Ministers: Meets to discuss current international issues and the
SCO's interaction with other international organizations.
 4. Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS): A permanent body headquartered in
Tashkent, Uzbekistan, focusing on cooperation against terrorism, separatism, and
extremism among member states.

eng.sectsco.org

5. Secretariat: Based in Beijing, China, the Secretariat is responsible for providing

organizational and technical support for SCO activities.

Key Features and Developments of the 2024 SCO Summit in Astana:

The 24th SCO Summit was held on July 3-4, 2024, in Astana, Kazakhstan. This summit was
significant for several reasons:

1. Adoption of Strategic Documents: Leaders endorsed 25 strategic documents covering

areas such as security, trade, energy, finance, and information security. Notable among
these were:
o Astana Declaration 2024: Reaffirmed the commitment to a multipolar world
order and emphasized the central role of the United Nations and international law.

eng.sectsco.org

o Energy Cooperation Development Strategy until 2030: Outlined plans for

collaborative energy projects and sustainable development.
o SCO Development Strategy until 2035: Set long-term goals for regional
cooperation and integration.
o Program for Cooperation in Countering Terrorism, Extremism, and
Separatism for 2025-2027: Detailed joint measures to combat security threats.
o SCO Anti-Drug Strategy for 2024-2029: Focused on collaborative efforts to
tackle drug trafficking and related challenges.

issi.org.pk

2. Expansion of Membership: Belarus was admitted as the first European member state,
bringing the total membership to ten. This expansion signifies the SCO's evolving role
from a regional cooperative forum to a broader bloc with increased global influence.

gmfus.org

3. Emphasis on Economic Cooperation: Discussions highlighted the importance of

innovative payment systems, digital financial literacy, and consumer protection. Leaders
encouraged the responsible use of technological innovations to enhance economic
collaboration among member states.

mea.gov.in
 4. Tourism and Cultural Exchange: The summit underscored the need to expand
cooperation in tourism, including sectors like agricultural, gastronomic, medical, and
environmental tourism. The adoption of the Joint Action Plan to Implement the SCO
Tourism Cooperation Programme for 2024-2025 aims to boost tourist flows and cultural
ties among member countries.

eng.sectsco.org

The Astana Summit of 2024 marked a pivotal moment in the SCO's evolution, reflecting its
commitment to fostering regional stability, economic growth, and multilateral cooperation.

Sources

Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has undergone significant developments in its
organizational structure and membership.

Organizational Structure of BRICS:

BRICS operates without a permanent secretariat or headquarters. Instead, its leadership rotates
annually among member states in the order of the acronym. The presiding nation, known as the
Chair, is responsible for setting priorities, organizing events for the year, and hosting the annual
summit. This approach ensures that each member has an opportunity to influence the group's
agenda and activities.

brics2023.gov.za

In addition to the rotating chairmanship, BRICS has established formal structures for its financial
initiatives. Notably, the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve
Arrangement (CRA) were created between 2014 and 2015. These institutions are governed by
treaty-based agreements, providing a framework for financial cooperation and support among
member countries.

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk

Key Developments from the Recent BRICS Summit in Kazan:

The 16th BRICS Summit took place in Kazan, Russia, from October 22 to 24, 2024, under the
theme "Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security." This summit
marked a pivotal moment in the bloc's evolution, showcasing key innovations, expanded energy
trade, and greater global influence.

cfr.org
Significant outcomes from the summit include:

1. Expansion of Membership: The summit formally welcomed new members: Egypt,

Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This expansion reflects
BRICS' growing influence and its commitment to inclusivity in addressing global
challenges.

cfr.org

2. Kazan Declaration: Member nations adopted the Kazan Declaration, emphasizing the
importance of multilateralism and cooperation. The declaration highlighted initiatives
such as the BRICS R&D Vaccine Center and the development of an Integrated Early
Warning System to prevent mass infectious disease outbreaks.

reuters.com

3. Global Financial Architecture Reform: A key focus was on reforming the global
financial system to better represent emerging economies. Discussions included enhancing
the role of the New Development Bank and exploring alternatives to traditional payment
systems dominated by Western institutions.

atlanticcouncil.org

4. Geopolitical Dynamics: The summit provided a platform for Russia to demonstrate its
global alliances amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. The presence of leaders and
representatives from 36 countries underscored BRICS' role as a significant player in
international relations.

europarl.europa.eu

These developments underscore BRICS' commitment to fostering a more equitable global order
through multilateral cooperation and inclusive growth.

Middle East's geopolitical landscape. This note examines the current state of affairs, regional
implications, and potential pragmatic solutions.

Recent Tensions Between Iran and Israel

As of February 2025, the relationship between Iran and Israel has deteriorated markedly. Key
developments include:

 Hostage Situations and Ceasefire Violations: Hamas postponed the release of Israeli
hostages, contravening a ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has threatened to resume military operations in the Gaza Strip if the hostages
are not released promptly.
 understandingwar.org

 Military Preparations: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been instructed to prepare
for potential scenarios in Gaza, deploying additional divisions to the region.
Concurrently, Iran has conducted air defense exercises, signaling readiness amidst rising
tensions.

reuters.com

 US-Israel Coordination: U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that Israel may launch a
preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities by mid-2025. President Donald Trump has
expressed support for Israel, indicating U.S. backing if Israel decides to escalate military
actions.

reuters.com

Regional Impacts

The escalating Iran-Israel tensions have profound implications for the Middle East:

 Gulf States' Security Concerns: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries,

particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, face heightened security risks.
Iranian proxies have threatened regional energy infrastructures, underscoring the
vulnerability of these nations to spillover effects from the Iran-Israel conflict.

energypolicy.columbia.edu

 Lebanon's Internal Stability: In Lebanon, the situation is particularly volatile. The

Lebanese army recently fired tear gas at Hezbollah supporters protesting near Beirut
airport after Lebanon blocked an Iranian flight. This incident highlights the delicate
balance Lebanon must maintain to avoid being drawn deeper into the Iran-Israel conflict.

reuters.com

 Risk of Wider Regional Conflict: The potential for a full-scale military confrontation
between Iran and Israel raises concerns about a broader regional war. Such a conflict
could disrupt global energy supplies, exacerbate humanitarian crises, and destabilize
neighboring countries.

usip.org

Pragmatic Solutions

Addressing the escalating tensions requires multifaceted approaches:

  Diplomatic Engagement: International actors, including the United Nations and
influential countries, should facilitate dialogue between Iran and Israel. Establishing
back-channel communications can help de-escalate immediate threats and build trust.
 Regional Security Framework: GCC countries, along with other Middle Eastern
nations, could collaborate to develop a regional security framework. This collective
approach can address shared threats and reduce reliance on external powers.
 Confidence-Building Measures: Both Iran and Israel could engage in actions that
demonstrate a commitment to peace, such as agreeing to mutual non-aggression pacts or
participating in joint humanitarian initiatives.
 Addressing Underlying Issues: Long-term solutions must tackle the root causes of the
conflict, including territorial disputes, political recognition, and resource allocations.
Comprehensive negotiations addressing these core issues are essential for sustainable
peace.

In conclusion, the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel pose significant challenges to
regional stability. A combination of diplomatic efforts, regional cooperation, and confidence-
building measures is crucial to mitigate the risks and pave the way for lasting peace in the
Middle East.

Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War and Its Practical Solutions

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022, has had profound
consequences for global security, economics, and diplomacy. This war, beyond being a regional
conflict, has escalated into a global crisis affecting multiple nations. Below is an in-depth
analysis of its implications and practical solutions.

Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War

1. Geopolitical Consequences

a. Shift in Global Power Dynamics

 The war has intensified the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West.
 The U.S. and NATO have strengthened their positions in Eastern Europe, increasing
military aid and security assistance to Ukraine.
 Russia has sought to build closer ties with China, Iran, and other non-Western countries
to counteract Western sanctions and isolation.

b. NATO Expansion

 Finland and Sweden have applied for NATO membership, reflecting how the war has
reinforced European security concerns.
  This expansion has further antagonized Russia, which views NATO enlargement as a
direct threat to its national security.

c. Strained Russia-Europe Relations

 The war has severely deteriorated relations between Russia and European nations,
especially Germany and France, which initially had strong economic ties with Moscow.
 European nations have imposed multiple rounds of sanctions, cutting off trade and energy
supplies from Russia.

2. Economic Repercussions

a. Global Energy Crisis

 Europe has drastically reduced its dependence on Russian gas, leading to higher energy
prices and supply shortages.
 Russia has redirected its energy exports to China and India at discounted rates, reshaping
global energy markets.

b. Food Security Threats

 Ukraine is a major global supplier of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. The war has
disrupted agricultural exports, causing food shortages in African and Middle Eastern
countries.
 The Black Sea Grain Initiative (brokered by the UN and Turkey) helped facilitate some
grain exports, but Russia withdrew from the deal in 2023, exacerbating food security
concerns.

c. Inflation and Economic Slowdown

 The war has contributed to global inflation due to rising energy and food prices.
 Western economies have slowed down as governments struggle with high military
spending, economic aid to Ukraine, and refugee support.

3. Humanitarian Consequences

a. Civilian Casualties and Refugee Crisis

 The war has caused over 500,000 casualties, including both military and civilian deaths.
 More than 14 million Ukrainians have been displaced, with millions seeking asylum in
Poland, Germany, and other European countries.
b. War Crimes and Human Rights Violations

 Reports of war crimes, including attacks on civilians, use of torture, and sexual violence,
have been documented by international organizations.
 The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Russian officials,
including President Vladimir Putin, over alleged human rights violations.

c. Political Repression in Russia

 The war has led to an intensified crackdown on opposition voices in Russia.

 Thousands of anti-war protesters have been arrested, and independent media outlets have
been shut down.

Practical Solutions to the Russia-Ukraine War

Resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict requires a multifaceted approach, incorporating

diplomatic, security, economic, and humanitarian strategies.

1. Diplomatic Solutions

a. Ceasefire and Peace Talks

 Immediate ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine should be facilitated by

neutral mediators such as Turkey, China, or the United Nations.
 A neutral zone or demilitarized corridor could be established in key conflict areas to
prevent further escalation.

b. International Mediation and Peace Proposals

 Peace initiatives like China's 12-point peace plan or Turkey’s mediation efforts should be
expanded.
 A compromise solution could involve Ukraine receiving security guarantees without
officially joining NATO.

c. UN-Led Negotiations

 The UN should take a more active role in facilitating peace talks, ensuring humanitarian
access, and monitoring ceasefires.

2. Security and Military Solutions

a. Balanced Security Framework for Europe

 NATO and Russia must engage in discussions about a new security framework to prevent
further escalations.
 A new European security agreement, modeled after the Helsinki Accords, could be
introduced to address mutual security concerns.

b. Controlled Military Assistance

 While Ukraine needs defensive capabilities, an uncontrolled influx of weapons could

prolong the war.
 Western military aid should focus on defensive rather than offensive systems to prevent
further escalation.

c. Non-NATO Security Guarantees for Ukraine

 Ukraine could adopt a model similar to Austria’s neutrality status during the Cold War.
 International security guarantees from major powers like the U.S., EU, and China could
provide Ukraine with protection without NATO membership.

3. Economic and Sanctions Solutions

a. Targeted Sanctions with Diplomatic Openings

 Economic sanctions on Russia should be reassessed to allow space for diplomatic

negotiations.
 In return for Russia agreeing to peace talks, some financial restrictions could be eased
while maintaining pressure on military-related industries.

b. Post-War Reconstruction Plans

 Ukraine will require a massive reconstruction effort, estimated at over $500 billion.
 The EU, World Bank, and IMF should coordinate an international rebuilding program,
similar to the Marshall Plan.

c. Alternative Energy Strategies

 Europe must continue its transition to alternative energy sources to reduce dependency on
Russian oil and gas.
 Investment in renewable energy and nuclear power could prevent future energy crises
caused by geopolitical conflicts.
4. Humanitarian and Social Solutions

a. Refugee Support and Resettlement

 European nations must expand refugee assistance programs and provide employment
opportunities for displaced Ukrainians.
 Long-term integration policies should be developed for those unable to return home.

b. War Crimes Accountability

 International organizations like the ICC and UN should continue investigating war crimes
and holding perpetrators accountable.
 A post-war reconciliation process should be established to ensure justice for victims.

c. De-escalation of Propaganda and Disinformation

 Both sides must reduce propaganda efforts and focus on factual, transparent reporting.
 International media watchdogs should monitor and counter disinformation campaigns.

Conclusion

The Russia-Ukraine war is a complex geopolitical crisis with far-reaching global implications. It
has caused economic turmoil, humanitarian suffering, and political instability. A practical
resolution requires a balanced approach involving diplomacy, controlled military support,
economic restructuring, and humanitarian assistance.

A long-term settlement must address both Russian and Ukrainian security concerns while
ensuring global stability. By fostering dialogue, rebuilding trust, and implementing sustainable
economic and security policies, the international community can work toward a lasting peace in
the region.

resulted in devastating consequences for both sides and the wider region. The conflict has led to
large-scale casualties, destruction, and regional instability. It has also strained international
relations and deepened political divisions worldwide.

Implications of the Hamas-Israel War

1. Humanitarian Consequences

a. Civilian Casualties and Displacement

  Thousands of civilians have been killed, including women and children, on both sides.
 More than 2 million Palestinians in Gaza have been displaced due to continuous Israeli
airstrikes and ground operations.
 Israel has also faced casualties from Hamas attacks, including civilian deaths and
kidnappings.

b. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

 Israel’s blockade and military actions have led to shortages of food, water, fuel, and
medical supplies.
 Hospitals in Gaza have been severely impacted, with many ceasing operations due to fuel
shortages and damage.
 International organizations, including the UN, Red Cross, and WHO, have raised alarms
about the worsening humanitarian conditions.

c. Rise in Global Anti-Semitism and Islamophobia

 The war has fueled a rise in anti-Semitic and Islamophobic incidents worldwide, with
protests, attacks, and social divisions increasing in multiple countries.

2. Regional and Geopolitical Consequences

a. Increased Tensions Between Israel and Iran

 Iran, a strong backer of Hamas and Hezbollah, has warned Israel against further
escalation.
 Israel has accused Iran of supplying weapons and funds to Hamas, fueling regional
hostilities.

b. Arab-Israeli Normalization Setback

 The conflict has damaged Abraham Accords, which sought normalization between
Israel and Arab states.
 Saudi Arabia, which was reportedly close to signing a deal with Israel, has put
normalization on hold.

c. Escalation of Conflicts in Neighboring Countries

 The war has triggered military confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
 Syria and Iraq have also been drawn into the tensions, with Israeli airstrikes targeting
Iranian-linked groups in these countries.
3. Economic Consequences

a. Economic Devastation in Gaza

 Gaza’s economy has collapsed due to infrastructure destruction, the blockade, and mass
displacement.
 The reconstruction costs are estimated to be in the billions.

b. Impact on Israel’s Economy

 The war has forced Israel to mobilize over 300,000 reservists, disrupting industries and
businesses.
 Foreign investors have withdrawn from Israel, impacting economic stability.

c. Global Economic Impact

 The conflict has affected global oil prices due to fears of escalation in the Middle East.
 The shipping industry has faced disruptions in the Red Sea due to attacks on cargo
vessels by Yemen’s Houthis, who support Hamas.

Practical Solutions to the Hamas-Israel War

1. Immediate Ceasefire and Humanitarian Assistance

 A UN-backed ceasefire is necessary to stop civilian casualties and allow humanitarian

aid into Gaza.
 Countries like Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey should mediate an immediate truce.

2. Long-term Political and Security Arrangements

a. Two-State Solution

 A viable Palestinian state alongside Israel, based on pre-1967 borders, could ensure
long-term peace.
 The status of East Jerusalem and Jewish settlements in the West Bank must be resolved
through negotiations.

b. Disarmament of Militants and Security Agreements

 Hamas would need to be disarmed, with international forces (possibly UN peacekeepers)

ensuring stability in Gaza.
 Israel must halt settlement expansion in Palestinian territories.

c. Regional Security Framework

  A Middle Eastern security dialogue should be established, involving Israel, Palestine,
Arab states, the U.S., and the EU.

3. Addressing Humanitarian and Economic Challenges

 International donors, including the World Bank, UN, and Gulf states, should lead
reconstruction efforts in Gaza.
 The Israeli blockade on essential goods must be lifted under international supervision.

4. Mediation by Global Powers

 The U.S., European Union, and Arab League must push for a peace plan.
 China and Russia, having influence over Iran and Arab states, should also be involved in
negotiations.

Lebanon-Israel Tussle
1. Causes of Lebanon-Israel Conflict

 Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, has engaged in cross-border attacks

against Israel in response to the Gaza war.
 Israel has carried out retaliatory airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in southern
Lebanon.
 Disputed territories, such as the Shebaa Farms, remain a flashpoint for violence.

2. Implications of Lebanon-Israel Conflict

a. Risk of Full-Scale War

 Continued clashes between Hezbollah and Israel could escalate into an all-out war,
drawing in Iran and Syria.

b. Humanitarian Crisis in Lebanon

 Lebanon is already suffering from economic collapse, and further conflict would push the
country into deeper instability.
 Thousands of Lebanese civilians have been displaced due to Israeli airstrikes.

c. Impact on Global Energy Markets

 If war breaks out, it could affect Lebanese gas fields and escalate tensions in the oil-
producing Gulf states.
Practical Solutions for Lebanon-Israel Conflict

1. UN Mediation: The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) should strengthen

monitoring along the Israel-Lebanon border.
2. Hezbollah Disarmament Talks: Iran and Lebanon should be pressured to curb
Hezbollah’s military actions.
3. Israel-Lebanon Diplomatic Engagement: Both countries should work on resolving
border disputes through peaceful negotiations.
4. Regional Peace Framework: Gulf states and Egypt should engage both Israel and
Lebanon to prevent further escalation.

Conclusion

The Hamas-Israel war and Lebanon-Israel tensions pose serious threats to Middle Eastern
stability. A lasting solution requires ceasefire agreements, diplomatic negotiations,
humanitarian aid, and security guarantees. The two-state solution, regional security pacts,
and global mediation remain the most viable long-term strategies for achieving peace.

Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar: Profiles and Alleged Deaths

1. Ismail Haniyeh

 Position: Chief of Hamas’ Political Bureau (since 2017)

 Background:
o Born in 1962 in Gaza, he rose to prominence as a close associate of Hamas
founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin.
o Became Prime Minister of Gaza in 2006 after Hamas won Palestinian elections.
o Later moved to Qatar, leading Hamas’ political wing and managing international
relations, particularly with Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.
 Death Reports:
o As of now, Ismail Haniyeh has not been killed. He continues to operate from
Doha, Qatar, leading Hamas diplomatically.
o His family members, including three sons, were reportedly killed in Israeli
airstrikes on April 10, 2024, in Gaza.

2. Yahya Sinwar

 Position: Hamas Leader in Gaza (since 2017)

  Background:
o Born in 1962 in Khan Younis, Gaza, he was a founding member of Hamas’
military wing, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
o Arrested by Israel in 1988 for killing Palestinian collaborators but was released in
2011 as part of the Gilad Shalit prisoner swap.
o He became the top Hamas leader in Gaza in 2017, replacing Ismail Haniyeh
(who moved to Qatar).
 Death Reports:
o Israel has claimed it is actively hunting Sinwar, calling him the “mastermind”
behind the October 7, 2023, attack.
o However, as of now, his death has not been confirmed.
o Israeli intelligence suggests he may be hiding in Hamas tunnels beneath Gaza,
possibly moving between safe houses.

Summary

 Ismail Haniyeh is still alive and based in Qatar, but his sons were reportedly killed in an
Israeli airstrike.
 Yahya Sinwar is believed to be hiding in Gaza, and while Israel has intensified efforts to
eliminate him, his death has not been confirmed.