HYPOTHESIS TESTING

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Introduction

Researchers are interested in answering many types of questions.

1 A scientist might want to know if there is evidence of global warming?
2 A physician might want to know whether a new medication will lower
a person’s blood pressure.
3 An educator might wish to see whether a new teaching technique is
better than a traditional one.
4 A retail merchant might want to know whether the public prefers a
certain color in a new line of fashion.
5 Automobile manufacturers are interested in determining whether a
new type of seat belt will reduce the severity of injuries caused by
accidents.

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Hypothesis Testing

What is hypothesis testing?

A decision-making process for evaluating claims about a population
the A process of making an inference or generalization on a
population based on the results of the study on samples.
Steps involve:
1 Researcher must define the population under study;
2 state the particular hypotheses that will be investigated;
3 give the significance level;
4 select a sample from the population;
5 collect the data;
6 perform the calculations required for the statistical test and
7 reach a conclusion.

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Hypothesis Testing

Two specific statistical tests used for hypotheses concerning means:

1 z test
2 t test.
The three methods used to test hypotheses are:
1 Traditional method
2 P-value method
3 The confidence interval method.

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Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a conjecture about a population parameter.

This conjecture may or may not be true.
Two types of statistical hypotheses:
1 The null hypothesis, symbolized by H0 , is a statistical hypothesis that
states that there is no difference between a parameter and a specific
value, or that there is no difference between two parameters.
2 The alternative hypothesis (research hypothesis), symbolized by
H1 , is a statistical hypothesis that states the existence of a difference
between a parameter and a specific value, or states that there is a
difference between two parameters.
Note: Although the definitions of null and alternative hypotheses given
here use the word parameter, these definitions can be extended to include
other terms such as distributions and randomness.

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Statistical Hypothesis

Examples
1 A medical researcher is interested in finding out whether a new
medication will have any undesirable side effects. The researcher is
particularly concerned with the pulse rate of the patients who take
the medication. Will the pulse rate increase, decrease,or remain
unchanged after a patient takes the medication?
H0 : µ = 82 and H1 : µ 6= 82
2 A chemist invents an additive to increase the life of an automobile
battery.If the mean lifetime of the automobile battery without the
additive is 36 months, then her hypotheses are
H0 : µ = 36 and H1 : µ > 36

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Statistical Hypothesis

3 A contractor wishes to lower heating bills by using a special type of

insulation in houses. If the average of the monthly heating bills is
$78, her hypotheses about heating costs with the use of insulation are
H0 : µ = 78 and H1 : µ < 78
The null and alternative hypotheses are stated together, and the null
hypothesis contains the equals sign, as shown (where k represents a
specified number).

Two-tailed test Right-tailed test Left-tailed test

H0 : µ = k H0 : µ = k H0 : µ = k
H1 : µ 6= k H1 : µ > k H1 : µ < k

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Statistical Hypothesis

Hypothesis-Testing Common Phrases

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Statistical Hypothesis
A claim, however, can be stated as either the null hypothesis or the
alternative hypothesis; but the statistical evidence can only support the
claim if it is the alternative hypothesis. Statistical evidence can be used to
reject the claim if the claim is the null hypothesis. These facts are
important when you are stating the conclusion of a statistical study.
Exercise: State the null and alternative hypotheses for each conjuncture.
1 A researcher studies gambling in young people. She thinks those who
gamble spend more than $30 per day.
2 A researcher wishes to see if police officers whose spouses work in law
enforcement have a lower score on a work stress questionnaire than
the average score of 120.
3 A teacher feels that if an online textbook is used for a course instead
of a hardback book, it may change the students? scores on a final
exam. In the past, the average final exam score for the students was
83.
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Statistical Hypothesis
Recall that when samples of a specific size are selected from a population,
the means of these samples will vary about the population mean, and the
distribution of the sample means will be approximately normal when the
sample size is 30 or more.

Figure 1. Situations in Hypothesis Testing

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Statistical Hypothesis

The farther away the sample mean is from the population mean, the
more evidence there would be for rejecting the null hypothesis.
The difference must be significant and in all likelihood not due to
chance. Here is where the concepts of statistical test and level of
significance are used.
A statistical test uses the data obtained from a sample to make a
decision about whether the null hypothesis should be rejected.
The numerical value obtained from a statistical test is called the test
value or test statistic.
Sample data are used to determine if a null hypothesis should be
rejected. Because this decision is based on sample data, there is a
possibility that an incorrect decision can be made.
In the hypothesis-testing situation, there are four possible outcomes.

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Statistical Hypothesis

Figure 2. Possible Outcomes of a Hypothesis Test

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Level of Significance

When there is a large difference between the mean obtained from the
sample and the hypothesized mean, the null hypothesis is probably not
true. The question is, How large a difference is necessary to reject the null
hypothesis? Here is where the level of significance is used.

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Level of Significance

When there is a large difference between the mean obtained from the
sample and the hypothesized mean, the null hypothesis is probably
not true. The question is, How large a difference is necessary to reject
the null hypothesis? Here is where the level of significance is used.
The level of significance is the maximum probability of committing
a type I error. This probability is symbolized by α. That is,
P(type I error) = α.
The probability of a type II error is symbolized by β. That is,
P(type II error) = β
Three arbitrary significance levels: the 0.10,0.05, and 0.01 levels.
That is, if the null hypothesis is rejected, the probability of a type I
error will be 10, 5, or 1œ, depending on which level of significance is
used.
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Critical Value

After a significance level is chosen, a critical value is selected from a

table for the appropriate test. If a z test is used, for example, the z
table is consulted to find the critical value.The critical value
determines the critical and noncritical regions.
The critical or rejection region is the range of test values that
indicates that there is a significant difference and that the null
hypothesis should be rejected.
The noncritical or nonrejection region is the range of test values
that indicates that the difference was probably due to chance and
that the null hypothesis should not be rejected.
The critical value separates the critical region from the noncritical
region. The symbol for critical value is C.V

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One-Tailed or Two-tailed tests

A one-tailed test indicates that the null hypothesis should be

rejected when the test value is in the critical region on one side of the
mean. A one-tailed test is either a right-tailed test or a left-tailed
test, depending on the direction of the inequality of the alternative
hypothesis.
In a two-tailed test, the null hypothesis should be rejected when the
test value is in either of the two critical regions.

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One-Tailed or Two-Tailed Tests

Figure 3. Finding the critical value for α = 0.01

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One-Tailed or Two-Tailed Tests

In the two-tailed test the critical region must be split into two equal parts.
If α = 0.01 , then one-half of the area, or 0.005, must be to the right of
the mean and one-half must be to the left of the mean.

Figure 4. Finding the critical values for α = 0.01 (Two-tailed test)

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One-Tailed or Two-Tailed Tests

Figure Figure 5. Summary of Hypothesis Testing and Critical Values

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Hypothesis Testing Procedure

1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

2 Find the critical value(s) from the appropriate table.
3 Compute the test value.
4 Make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.
5 Summarize the results.

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Applying Concepts

Eggs and Your Health

The Incredible Edible Egg company recently found that eating eggs does
not increase a person?s blood serum cholesterol. Five hundred subjects
participated in a study that lasted for 2 years. The participants were
randomly assigned to either a no-egg group or a moderate-egg group. The
blood serum cholesterol levels were checked at the beginning and at the
end of the study. Overall, the groups levels were not significantly different.
The company reminds us that eating eggs is healthy if done in
moderation. Many of the previous studies relating eggs and high blood
serum cholesterol jumped to improper conclusions.

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Applying Concepts

Using this information, answer these questions.

1 What prompted the study?
2 What is the population under study?
3 Was a sample collected?
4 What was the hypothesis?
5 Were data collected?
6 Were any statistical tests run?
7 What was the conclusion?

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Exercise

For each conjecture, state the null and alternative hypotheses.

1 The average weight of dogs is 15.5 pounds.
2 The average distance a person lives away from toxic waste site is
greater than 10.8 miles.
3 The average farm size in 1970 was less than 390 acres.
4 The average nummber of miles a vehicle is driven per year is 12,603.
5 The average amount of money a person keeps in his or her checking
account is less than $24.

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