Turtle Soup 1
Turtle Soup 1
Buy Low, Sell High – Don´t buy high, Don´t sell low.
In this case, we are low in all 3 aspects. You should be looking for buys or
not sells.
The fibs are pulled from the most energetic swing that broke another swing.
Chapter 2: Time
Time is always seen through the lens of OHLC / OLHC.2 of which are fixed. You
have the opening time and the closing time. Your job is it to catch high
and or low. You don´t need to catch the extremities.
(Tip: The midpoint of the candle time can also be used as a fixed value to
exit trades in case you expect an expansion and get an accumulation. If price
reverses on you, it tends to happen once 50% of the candle´s TIME has
passed.)
(This, of course is a classic HTF sell candle on a LTF. However, it can come
in many shapes and sizes – just trying to prove a point)
Below, all 6 types of candle formations will be show. Pay close attention to
how we behave at the O (open) H (high) L (low) C (close) or OLHC values and
TIME.
1. Classic Sell Candle
On a classic sell or buy candle, we rally above the open when bearish to then
drop.
On a classic buy candle, we drop below the open when bullish to then rally.
3. Consolidation / Range on a sell candle, so called “Doji”
These usually happen after large range candles (sometimes even before
anticipating a large candle). These ranging candles can later on be used in a
range model to trade the extremities.
5. Bearish reversal candle (sometimes called “bearish Hammer”)
We start with an opening range, manipulation high of the candle above the
open (often times into a previous high of the previous candle, which ideally
coincides with a HTF key level) (Trade #1), expansion, OTE (Trade #2),
expansion, and a last bounce at the end to close (Trade #3).
For the projection of the High or Low of the candle, STDV, -1.618 fib, Wicks
or close above / below levels and time will help.
There are certain times at which PO3 can be expected:
In a daily candle (classic sell day), Asia Range will accumulate, London
Killzone will manipulate (1:00 – 5:00) and New York (9:00 – 13:00) will
distribute:
Knowing when manipulation will likely occur, turtle soups can be timed.
In the PM session, the 13:00 H4 candle can be used to time Turtle Soups. Mark
the 13:00 open and look for manipulation to occur at 13:30. Same idea, sell
above, buy below the open. (13:00 – 13:30 often acts as an accumulation)
This means that the popular killzones are customizable to your needs as long
as you can map out the HTF candle you´re trying to trade in correctly. This
means that a “5pm NY Killzone” exists.
There are 10 high probability day trades per week.
Once every 1:00 candle, Once every 9:00 candle. 2 per day, 5 days per week.
There are 25 good quality trades per week.
1:00, 5:00, 9:00, 13:00, 17:00. 21:00 will usually just consolidate.
Likewise, there are 2 high probability short term trades per week.
Once at the low of the week and once at the high of the week.
The first wick will usually form on Monday – Wednesday (Wednesday will not
form the high AND low of the week) (Trade #1), the opposing range will be
capped on Thursday and or Friday (Trade #2). To know which of these days
exactly is the high or low, price needs to be considered. Is it at a key
level?
To know when a range is capped with a high probability, look for a HTF CISD.
Remember that MOST candles are not important to us. The 20-40-60 IPDA
lookback candles are usually the ones where liquidity and PDAs should be
looked for.
Expect Manipulation within these times:
times:
2:00-3:00
9:30-10:00
13:30-14:00
Best utilized with an H4 or daily profile
Chapter 3: Trading Models
Range Model (fractal – all timeframes)
(Most secure)
2. ITH / ITL or Turtle Soup you trust as a SL to the left:
3. LTF CISD:
The time chapter should already give you a general answer. However, regarding
price, ranges can be anticipated when:
1. We formed a large range candle recently / We anticipate a large range
candle forming soon
2. We are above the open of a HTF candle when bearish – We are below the
open of a HTF candle when bullish
3. We Have SMTs on both sides
4. We are stuck between 2 PDAs on a HTF
5. We start rejecting highs and lows
Remember:
1. Buy low, sell high – buy range low, sell range high
2. Never buy range high, never sell range low (only if a new PDA is formed
and we have multiple strong closes above or below a range – best paired
with SMT. That is likely to be a real breakout).
3. Never trade within 50% / EQ of a range
4. The first purge of a range is usually a turtle soup.
5. The first hit of a key level is usually a false move. Most of the time,
price hits the key level again for a turtle soup.
6. If you miss the entry, a pyramid / reentry can be taken on the retest
of one side of the range after the purge.
A (Asia) – M (London)
A M inside H4, H1, etc.… The general idea is to catch the manipulation at the
correct time.
Range to Range (fractal)
The idea is similar to the usual range model. With this one, you are looking
for a LTF range to form below the HTF range when bullish and above the HTF
range when bearish. You will soup the LTF range and use its risk to
capitalize
capitalize on the HTF range´s reward:
Using the information mentioned above, one can anticipate that Wednesday will
be a classic sell or buy day into the weekly order flow direction. (Check 6
candle formations).
formations).
Variations of this model depend on what day the HTF PD is hit which creates
the weekly high or low.
With the Wednesday model, you´re capitalizing on the weekly profile, daily
profile and H4 candle profile to map out your trades. Having all 3 opening
prices on the chart when trading this model is useful.
You are using the manipulation (time) (Tuesday) that takes Monday´s
accumulation, to expect a distribution on Wednesday that targets Monday´s
range. (Refer to Time Chapter and 3 candle formation).
You want Tuesday to take Monday´s range high or low into a key level on the
daily chart and close inside it.
On a classic sell day (Wednesday), you anticipate the 1:00 H4 candle to make
the high of the day above the daily and H4 open with a LTF CISD. The 9:00 H4
candle will offer an OTE into the expansion to target Monday´s range. Again,
above the 9:00 open.
It may take until Thursday to reach the target which is why this is a short-
term trading model.
On the H1 chart, we rally above midnight open and H4 1:00 open. Since we are
bearish, we want to sell above these 2. We got a Turtle Soup at around 5:00.
This is entry #1 to target Monday EQ and Range low.
Later in NY, we rally above the 9:00 again, (0:00 is not necessary), we want
to sell above the 9:00 when bearish. NY will offer an OTE to send price lower
to Monday´s low.
A good SL for NY was London high (we have a CISD), and for London, the HTF
breaker. (And yes, we did hit OTE in the 9:00 H4 candle with a wick.)
Kiss of Death
The Kiss of Death is a continuation model where you get a last knife / Turtle
Soup below a low or above high before hitting the HTF DOL.
1. Identify HTF Bias - Close to HTF DOL (clearly bearish / bullish Order
flow)
2. Identify LTF liquidity pool
3. Map out Market and candle profile with opening price and key level
Accumulation – Manipulation TIME (Kiss of Death) – Distribution
4. Premium / Discount
Notes:
- Don´t
Put intrade the pattern,
the majority trade
of your the on
focus logic. Ignore3 FVGs,
the above OBs, BRKs etc.…
factors
- Very few look at the market through this lens. This is your edge.
- Go back in time, look at your winning trades, they all comply to this
system.
No expectations.
None.
None .
Swing trades and how to catch them
1. Seasonal Tendency – History repeats itself. If there is no seasonal
tendency or the opposite tendency – no trade.
2. Inter market analysis – Is the market symmetrical? Is the DXY
corresponding well to EURUSD? Same goes for inter market relations
within GOLD / SILVER, BTC / ETH. Are we hitting key levels at the same
time?
3. Market profile
rejecting lows,on HTFversa.
vice – Are Are
we ranging, are through
we breaking we breaking highs,
bearish key levels?
Vice versa.
4. LTF for opportunity hunting.
If the 4 do not present themselves, then don´t take a swing trade and stick
to LTFs.
P.S.: There are also other tools such as COT (Commitment of Traders on
Barchart), Open Interest etc.… which you can utilize.
Intricacies
When the market is bearish and the seasonal tendency is bullish, it is likely
time for a bottom or short-term correction.
When you are in a ranging market and the seasonal tendency is a violent one,
you can expect it to play out. When you´re bullish and the seasonal tendency
is bearish, expecting a retracement and continuation into the seasonal
tendency is healthy.
- After hitting a HTF PDA, more times than not, it will touch twice
(often times LTF). Unless we are super strong into one direction.
However, most of the time we come back, soup or SMT. This is the key to
turtle soup.
- Turtle Soups are often paired with a failure swing to scare off dumb
money who were lucky enough to buy or sell the turtle soup.
The highest probability OBs are:
1. Around liquidity pools
2. Thick high-volume candles
3. Followed by a FVG
1. BRKs
2. SMTs
3. BPRs
4. HTF gaps filled = LTF gaps remain unfilled
- Lows or highs that caused a purge that get swept, are the best turtle
soups.
- Before hitting a key level, price will often times consolidate, give a
false break and a fake MSS with a fake AMD pattern. After that, the
real turtle soup comes.
- EQHs and EQLs as well as equal body highs and equal body lows will more
often than not be souped.
- Let´s say you´re bullish on the weekly, you cannot expect daily bearish
PDAs to hold until the weekly objective is met. Applicable to all TFs.
- Do you expect the FVG to always give you an instant reaction? Do you
always expect the order block to give you the same instant reaction? Or
do you adjust your expectation to the different shape PDAs? And of
course, same goes for time.
- Confused about if you chose the right PDA? Go to the HTF until it´s
clear.
- Do not marry bias. If the market shows you something opposing to your
bias, just accept it. Trade what you see, not what you want to see.
- Order blocks that form at specific times are higher probability than
others.
FVGs that form at specific times are higher probability than others.
Breakers that form at specific times are higher probability than
others.
What are the specific times? Killzones.
- If we close below the 0.62 Fib, it can be used to send price lower.
When we close below / above an ITH / ITL, we can expect the market to
target the rejection block or the high or low of the price swing.
- When DXY hits a key level and EURUSD doesn´t and we have an SMT showing
we will likely react on DXY, you do not need to wait for EURUSD to hit
the key level. However, wait for a confirmation of the SMT with a CISD.
For entries:
Inducement = Turtle Soup
OB = candle that dug into a high or low = Turtle Soup
OTE = the second leg of distribution after a Turtle Soup and MSS
OHLC / OLHC =
H = Turtle Soup
L = Turtle Soup
It is the system.
For DOL:
The only reason price moves is to:
3. Execution
-
- Moving stopstop
Not moving to BE
totoo quickappropriate
BE when (Fear) (Greed)
- Opening a scalp and turning it into a swing (Greed)
What I would do if I had to restart?
1. Take control of your attention
2. No Instagram worship or fan clubs
3. Accept submission to TIME, early on
4. Avoid multiple sources of information
5. Settle on the study of Price Action
6. Avoid all indicator – based theories
7.
8. Study
Expectwhy
it traders fail, not why
to be challenging but they
worthwin
it
9. Don’t buy every course you see
10. Do not try to mimic someone else, regardless of image
11. Learn why a market trades higher or lower
12. Study where a market is likely to draw to
13. Spend most of your time in past Price Action
14. Keep a Journal, record observations
15. Try to keep your study as simplified as possible
16. Learn when markets are likely to behave a certain way
17. Be a specialist, a single market or two, at most
18. Centralize your efforts on a single model
19. Develop a framework for a market based HTF bias
20. Find one setup, determine an easy low effort target
sk yourself:
- What worked well this week?
- What didn’t?
Some questions to consider when answering the above:
- Was there a type of trade that did / didn´t work well?
- Was there a particular market that you did / didn’t trade well?
- Was there a particular day / time that you did / didn’t trade well?
- Did you enter trades too soon?
- Did you enter trades too late?
- Did you take profit too soon?
- Did you take profit too late?
- Were your stops too tight?
- Did you take poor/RR trades?
- Did you risk too much?
- Did you risk too little?
- Did you miss any trades?
- Did you deviate from your plan? If so, why? What was the outcome?
Key question:
Are your answers above familiar? E.g., they are recurring in your trading and
you haven´t taken action to do more of what works and less / the opposite of
what doesn’t.
For recurring problems:
Ask:
Tasks:
Study the biggest move of the week across the market(s) you trade. Can you
see anything that would have caused you to catch it?
Always reverse engineer a loss. When you win, you learn nothing. You actually
delude yourself more. When you win, you often blind yourself with joy. Which
leads you to think that what you did was right. Even though you might’ve won
on accident. If you lose, be happy. When you lose, you´re getting an
opportunity to never repeat a mistake ever again. Every loss you take is an
opportunity to sharpen your blade. It should excite you, not sadden you.
When I win, I feel nothing, when I lose, I feel nothing. You´re paying the
market to tell you what it is going to do in the future. Win? Great, journal
it. Why did I win? Lose? Great, why did I lose? Journal. You should end with
a papercut at worst. Don´t forget to always include the time of the trade.
When you miss a move, do this:
1. How could I have participated, which mistake did I make
2. Where would my stop loss have been if I was correct
3. How could I have gotten into the move later on (Kiss of Death?)
Future updates of this PDF will be released once UTS has finished.
Thank you for reading. Good luck and good trading.