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CIE IGCSE Maths: Extended Your notes

Basic Probability
Contents
Basic Probability
Relative & Expected Frequency

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Basic Probability
Your notes
Basic Probability
What is probability?
Probability describes the likelihood of something happening
In real-life you might use words such as impossible, unlikely, certain, etc to describe probability
In maths we use the probability scale to describe probability
This means giving it a number between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain)
Probabilities can be given as fractions, decimals or percentages
What key words and terminology are used with probability?
An experiment is a repeatable activity that has a result that can be observed or recorded
Trials are what we call the repeats of the experiment
An outcome is a possible result of a trial
An event is an outcome or a collection of outcomes
Events are usually denoted with capital letters: A, B, etc
n(A) is the number of outcomes that are included in event A
An event can have one or more than one outcome
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
It can be represented as a list or a table
The probability of event A is denoted as P(A)
How do I calculate basic probabilities?
If all outcomes are equally likely then probability for each outcome is the same
1
Probability for each outcome is
Total number of outcomes
1
e.g. If there are 50 marbles in a bag then the probability of selecting a specific one is
50
The theoretical probability of an event can be calculated without using an experiment by dividing the
number of outcomes of that event by the total number of outcomes
Total number of outcomes for the event
P(A ) =
Total number of outcomes
e.g. If there are 50 marbles in a bag and 20 of them are blue then the probability of selecting a blue
20
marble is
50
In some situations, identifying all possible outcomes using a list or a table can help
How do I find missing probabilities?

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The probabilities of all the outcomes add up to 1

If you have a table of probabilities with one missing then you can find it by subtracting the (sum of
the) rest from 1 Your notes
The complement of event A is the event where event A does not happen
This can be thought of as not A
This is denoted A'
P(A ) + P(A ') = 1
This is commonly written as P(A ') = 1 − P(A )

What are mutually exclusive events?

Two events are mutually exclusive if they can not both happen at once
For example: when rolling a dice the events “getting a prime number” and “getting a 6” are mutually
exclusive
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then to find the probability that A OR B occurs you can simply
add together the probability of A and the probability of B
Complementary events are mutually exclusive

Examiner Tip
Probabilities can be fractions, decimals or percentages (but nothing else!)
If no format is indicated in a question then fractions are normally best

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Worked example
Your notes
Emilia is using a spinner that has outcomes and probabilities as shown in the table.

Outcome Blue Yellow Green Red Purple

Probability 0.2 0.1 0.4

The spinner has an equal chance of landing on blue or red.

a) Complete the probability table.

The probabilities of all the outcomes should add up to 1.

1 - 0.2 - 0.1 - 0.4 = 0.3
The probability that it lands on blue or red is 0.3.
As the probabilities of blue and red are equal you can halve this to get each probability.
0.3 ÷ 2 = 0.15
Now complete the table.

Outcome Blue Yellow Green Red Purple

Probability 0.15 0.2 0.1 0.15 0.4

b) Find the probability that the spinner lands on green or purple.

As the spinner can not land on green and purple at the same time they are mutually exclusive.
This means you can add their probabilities together.
0.1 + 0.4 = 0.5
P(Green or Purple) = 0.5
c) Find the probability that the spinner does not land on yellow.

The probability of not landing on yellow is equal to 1 minus the probability of landing on yellow.
1 - 0.2 = 0.8
P(Not Yellow) = 0.8

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Possibility Diagrams
What is a possibility diagram (sample space)? Your notes
In probability, the sample space means all the possible outcomes
In simple situations it can be given as a list
For flipping a coin, the sample space is: Heads, Tails
the letters H, T can be used
For rolling a six-sided die, the sample space is: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
When combining two things a grid (also called a possibility diagram) can be used
For example, rolling two six-sided dice and adding their scores
A list of all the possibilities would be very long
It would be hard to spot whether you had missed any possibilities
It would be hard to spot any patterns in the sample space
Use a possibility diagram instead

If you need to combine more than two things you'll probably need to go back to listing
For example, flipping three coins (or flipping one coin three times!)
In this case the sample space is: HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT (8 possible outcomes)
How do I use a possibility diagram to calculate probabilities?
Probabilities can be found by counting the possibilities you want, then dividing by the total number of
possibilities in the sample space
For example, in the sample space 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 you can count 4 prime numbers (2, 3, 5 and
7)
4 2
So the probability of getting a prime number is =
10 5
Or for rolling two dice and adding the results, the possibility diagram above shows there are 5 ways
to get '8', and 36 outcomes in total
5
So the probability of getting an 8 is
36

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But be careful - this counting method only works if all possibilities in the sample space are equally
likely
For a fair six-sided die: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are all equally likely Your notes
For a fair (unbiased) coin: H, T are equally likely
Winning the lottery: Yes, No. These are not equally likely!
1
You cannot count possibilities here to say the probability of winning the lottery is
2
This method can also be used for finding the probability of an event occurring given that another event Referring to the
has occurred ('conditional probability') two dice table
For example when two dice are rolled, you can use the possibility diagram above to find the above
probability that an individual dice shows a 6, given that the total showing on the two dice is 7
count the number of outcomes that sum to 7 (there are 6 of them) - this goes in the
denominator
count the number of those outcomes in which one of the dice shows a 6 (there are two of
these, (1,6) and (6,1)) - this goes in the numerator
2 ⎛⎜ 1 ⎞⎟
So the probability is ⎜= ⎟
6 ⎝ 3⎠

Examiner Tip
Some harder questions may not say "by drawing a possibility diagram" so you have to decide to do it
on your own.

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Worked example
Your notes
Two fair six-sided dice are rolled.
a) Find the probability that the sum of the numbers showing on the two dice is an odd number
greater than 5, giving your answer as a fraction in simplest form.

Draw a possibility diagram to show all the possible outcomes.

Circle the possibilities that are odd numbers greater than 5.

(5 is not included!)

Count the number of possibilities that are circled (12) and divide them by the total number of
possibilities in the diagram (36).

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Finally, simplify your answer.

Your notes

b) Given that the sum of the numbers showing on the two dice is an odd number greater than 5,
find the probability that one of the dice shows the number 2. Give your answer as a fraction in
simplest form.

From part (a) you already know there are 12 ways to get an odd number greater than 5.
Now find how many of those ways (i.e., how many of the circled possibilities in the possibility
diagram) involve one of the dice showing the number 2.
There are two of these: (2, 5) and (5, 2).
So the probability we are looking for is 2 divided by 12.

Finally, simplify your answer.

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Relative & Expected Frequency

Your notes
Relative Frequency
What is relative frequency?
Relative frequency is used to estimate probabilities from experimental data
For a certain number of trials, the probability of ‘success’ is given as
Number of successful outcomes
Total number of trials
e.g. If you flip an unfair coin 50 times and it lands on heads 20 times then you would use relative
20
frequency to estimate the probability of the coin landing on heads as
50
The more trials that are carried out, the more accurate relative frequency becomes
If you have to choose between relative frequencies to estimate the probability then choose the
one which includes the largest number of trials
When will I be asked to use relative frequency?
Relative frequency will be used when either theoretical probabilities are unavailable or are not
possible to calculate
Relative frequency may also be used to test if a situation is fair or biased
e.g. if a coin is fair then you would expect the probability of it landing on heads to be 0.5
If the relative frequency is close to 0.5 then this suggests it is fair
If the relative frequency is not close to 0.5 then this suggests the coin is biased (not fair)
What else do I need to know about relative frequency?
Relative frequency will only provide an estimate for a probability
If you use a large number of trials then you would expect the estimate to be close to the actual
probability
Relative frequency assumes that there is an equal chance of ‘success’ on each trial
i.e. trials are independent
if choosing something from a bag (button, ball, marble) then it would need to be replaced to use
relative frequency

Examiner Tip
Exam questions will not necessarily use the phrase relative frequency so think about the
information given carefully
If a question mentions repeatedly carrying out a trial, or experiment, or the possibility of bias, then
relative frequency is involved

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Worked example
Your notes
There are an unknown number of different coloured but identically sized buttons in a bag. Johan
selects a button at random, notes its colour and replaces the button in the bag. Repeating this 30 Terms and their simple
times, Johan notes that on 18 occasions he selected a red button. meaning

Use Johan’s results to estimate the probability that a button drawn at random from the bag is red. Replace: After an item
is drawn from a set, it's
Taking ‘red’ to be a success, Johan had 18 successes out of a total of 30 trials. put back before the
next draw.

Each draw is
independent. The total
number of items and
the number of
favorable outcomes
remain constant for
each draw.

Not Replaced: After an

item is drawn from a
set, it's not returned
before the next draw

Each draw is
dependent on the
previous one. The total
number of items and
the number of
favorable outcomes
decrease after each
draw.

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Expected Frequency
What is expected frequency? Your notes
Expected frequency refers to the number of times a you would expect a particular outcome to occur
when repeating a trial numerous times
The theoretical probability of that outcome will need to be known
or an estimate of it, from relative frequency
How do I find expected frequency?
If the probability of a particular outcome is p and there are n trials then
the expected number of occurrences of that outcome from the n trials is np
multiply the number of trials by the probability of the particular outcome
Note that this does not mean that there will exactly np occurrences
but if the experiment (of n trials) was repeated over and over again we would expect the number of
occurrences to average out to be np

Examiner Tip
Exam questions will not necessarily use the phrase expected frequency so think about the
information given carefully
If a question mentions repeatedly carrying out a trial, and a number of occurrences is requested
(rather than a probability) expected frequency is involved

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Worked example
Your notes
There are 6 blue, 4 red and 5 yellow counters in a bag. One counter is drawn at random and its colour
noted. The counter is then returned to the bag.
a) Find the probability that a counter drawn from the bag is yellow.
There are 5 yellow counters out of a total of 6 + 4 + 5 = 15 counters in the bag.

P(Yellow)

b) How many times would you expect a yellow counter to be drawn if the experiment is repeated
300 times?
This is expected frequency so multiply the number of trails (n) by the probability (p).

We would expect 100 yellow counters

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