B: Walpole

Chapter 5
Some Discrete
Probability
Distributions Md. Gulam Kibria
Lecturer, Dept. of IPE,
BUET
 Introduction
No matter whether a discrete probability distribution is
represented graphically by a histogram, in tabular form, or
by means of a formula, the behavior of a random variable is
described.
Often, the observations generated by different statistical
experiments have the same general type of behavior.
Consequently, discrete random variables associated with these
experiments can be described by essentially the same
probability distribution and therefore can be represented by
a single formula.
Only a handful of important probability distributions is
required to describe many of the discrete random variables
encountered in practice.
 Binomial Distribution
An experiment often consists of repeated trials, each with
two possible outcomes that may be labeled success or
failure.
The most obvious application deals with the testing of items as
they come off an assembly line, where each trial may indicate
a defective or a non-defective item.
The process is referred to as a Bernoulli process.
Each trial is called a Bernoulli trial.
 Binomial Distribution
Properties of a Bernoulli Process:
The experiment consists of repeated trials.
Each trial results in an outcome thatmay be
classified as a
success or a failure.
The probability of success, denoted by p, remains constant
from trial to trial.
The repeated trials are independent.
 Binomial Distribution
A Bernoulli trial can result in a success with probability p and
a failure with probability q = 1 − p. Then the probability
distribution of the binomial random variable X, the number of
successes in n independent trials, is
n x n−
b(x; n, p) = ⎛ ⎞⎟ x
p q , x = 0, 1, 2,....., n.
⎜ ⎝ x
⎠
Example: The probability that a certain kind of component will
survive a shock test is 3/4. Find the probability that exactly 2
of the next 4 components tested survive.
Solution:
⎛ ⎛
3⎟ ⎜⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎞
2
⎛ ⎞
4−2
⎜
b(x; n, p) = b2;4, 4⎞⎛ 3 1 = 0.2109
⎝ 4 ⎠⎞ = ⎝ 2 4 ⎟ 4
⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
⎠
 Binomial Distribution
Example: The drainage system of a city has been designed for a
rainfall intensity that will be exceeded on an average once in 50
years. What is the probability that the city will be flooded at
most 2 out of 10 years?
Solution:
P(city will be flooded at most 2 out of 10 years)
⎛⎜ ⎜ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎜⎛ 1
= b ⎝ 0;10, ⎟⎠ +⎝ b 1;10,⎟ ⎠ +⎝ b ⎠2;10, ⎟
⎞ 50 50 50
= ⎜⎛10⎞
⎟ + 10⎜ ⎟ ⎛10⎞ + ⎜1 ⎟ 49 ⎛10⎞
⎜ ⎛ ⎟ ⎜ ⎞ ⎟⎛ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜⎛ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
0
1 49 1 1 2 49 8
⎞ ⎞ ⎛ ⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎞
⎝ 0 ⎝ ⎝50⎠ 50⎝ 1 ⎠ 50 ⎝ 50⎠9⎝2 ⎠ 50 50 ⎝ ⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
= 0.8171+⎠ 0.1667 + ⎠0.0153⎞ ⎠
= 0.9991
 Binomial Distribution
Example: A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of
electronic device from a manufacturer. The manufacturer
indicates that the defective rate of the device is 3%.
(a) The inspector randomly picks 20 items from a shipment. What
is the probability that there will be at least one defective item
among these 20?
(b) Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and
the inspector randomly tests 20 devices per shipment. What is
the probability that there will be exactly 3 shipments each
containing at least one defective device among the 20 that are
selected and tested from the shipment?
 Binomial Distribution
The mean and variance of the binomial distribution b(x; n, p) are

μ = np
σ 2 = npq
 Geometric Distribution
An Example: Consider an experiment which involves tossing
of a coin until a head occurs. We want to determine the
probability that the first head occurs on the fourth toss. Assume
the coin to be a fair one.

The required probability = (0.5)1 (0.5)3 = (0.5)1 (0.5)3

❑ If repeated independent trials can result in a success with

probability p and a failure with probability q = 1 − p, then the
probability distribution of the random variable X, the number of
the trial on which the first success occurs, is

g(x; p) = pqx−1, x = 1, 2,
3,........
 Poisson Distribution
Experiments yielding numerical values of a random variable X,
the number of outcomes occurring during a given time
interval or in a specified region, are called Poisson experiments.
The given time interval may be of any length, such as a minute,
a day, a week, a month, or even a year. For example, a Poisson
experiment can generate observations for the random variable X
representing the number of telephone calls received per hour
by an office, the number of days school is closed due to snow
during the winter, or the number of games postponed due to
rain during a baseball season.
The specified region could be a line segment, an area, a
volume, or perhaps a piece of material. In such instances, X
might represent the number of field mice per acre, the number
of bacteria in a given culture, or the number of typing errors
per page.
 Poisson Distribution
A Poisson experiment is derived from the Poisson process and
possesses the following properties.
✔ 1. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or
specified region of space is independent of the number that occur in
any other disjoint time interval or region. In this sense we say that
the Poisson process has no memory.
✔ 2. The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very
short time interval or in a small region is proportional to the
length of the time interval or the size of the region and does not
depend on the number of outcomes occurring outside this time
interval or region.
✔ 3. If the length of time or area of the region is negligible, the
probability that more than one outcome will occur in such a short
time interval or fall in such a small region is negligible.
 Poisson Distribution
The number X of outcomes occurring during a
experiment is called a Poisson random variable, and
Poisson
its probability distribution is called the Poisson distribution.
Let, λ = the rate of occurrence of outcomes (the average number
of outcomes per unit time, distance, area, or volume)
t= the specific “time,” “distance,” “area,” or
“volume” of interest.
The mean number of outcomes, μ = λt
The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X,
representing the number of outcomes occurring in a given time
interval or specified region denoted by t, is
e−λt (λt
p(x; λt ) , x = 0, 1, Derivation
= )x x! 2,.......
Poisson Distribution
 Poisson Distribution
Problem: Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each day
at a certain port. The facilities at the port can handle at most 15
tankers per day. What is the probability that on a given day
tankers have to be turned away?

Problem: The safety of a building in an earthquake-prone area is

under consideration. The past 100 years of data indicate that there
were four strong earthquakes in the area. Also, a detailed
evaluation indicates that during a strong earthquake, the
probability that the building will suffer damage is 0.10. Assume
that damage events for different earthquakes are statistically
independent.
(a) What is the probability thatthere will be only two
strong
earthquakes in 50 years?