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Week 3 - Data Assignment FC

The document provides sales data and forecasts for various categories (MTB, Road, Trekking, E-Bike) from 2020 to 2023, including monthly figures and forecast methods. It highlights that exponential smoothing is the most accurate forecasting method for MTB, while SMA is preferred for Road, Trekking, and E-Bike categories. Each section includes a forecast for 2023 and details on the calculation methods used.

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clarageral35
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
17 views11 pages

Week 3 - Data Assignment FC

The document provides sales data and forecasts for various categories (MTB, Road, Trekking, E-Bike) from 2020 to 2023, including monthly figures and forecast methods. It highlights that exponential smoothing is the most accurate forecasting method for MTB, while SMA is preferred for Road, Trekking, and E-Bike categories. Each section includes a forecast for 2023 and details on the calculation methods used.

Uploaded by

clarageral35
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MTB Year Forecast

Month 2020 2021 2022 2023 Forecast 2022 SMA


January 60,454 63,476 51,417 50,902 61,965 58,449
February 66,493 70,483 64,845 60,306 68,488 67,274
March 82,825 86,138 77,525 72,873 84,482 82,163
April 91,711 96,296 91,482 89,652 94,004 93,163
May 125,428 134,207 122,130 113,581 129,818 127,255
June 144,502 156,062 148,260 134,916 150,282 149,608
July 143,728 148,040 133,236 130,572 145,884 141,668
August 105,160 109,367 92,962 90,173 107,264 102,496
September 95,172 98,980 89,082 85,519 97,076 94,411
October 62,753 66,519 53,215 49,490 64,636 60,829
November 65,672 70,270 66,757 60,749 67,971 67,566
December 51,339 53,393 45,384 41,753 52,366 50,039

Insert here the graph for the sales data of the last 4 years
Chart Title
180,000
160,000
SMA
140,000
120,000 WMA
100,000 ES
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
ry ry ch ril ay ne Ju
ly st be
r er be
r
be
r
ua rua ar Ap M Ju gu ob
a n b M A u em Oc
t
ve
m
ce
m
J Fe pt
S e No De

Year 2020 2021 2022


2023 Forecast 2022
Forecast 2023 MAD
WMA Exponential Smoothing SMA WMA Exponential Smoothing
55,938 54,581 7547 5036 3679
66,701 65,938 6968 6395 5632
80,639 79,612 9290 7766 6739
92,949 92,238 3511 3297 2586
126,083 124,436 13674 12502 10855
150,225 148,867 14692 15309 13951
138,726 137,030 11096 8154 6458
99,103 97,252 12323 8930 7079
92,660 91,480 8892 7141 5961
58,160 56,641 11339 8670 7151
67,702 67,121 6817 6953 6372
48,382 47,479 8286 6629 5726
9536 8065 6849

The most accurate forecast method for this data is: exponential smoothing because it has the

3-year
t-1 = 60%, t-2 =30%, t-3=10% of the newest(most recent) to the oldest
Alpha = 0,7
oothing because it has the smallest average number

the total might be 100 percent


ROAD Year
Month 2020 2021 2022 2023 Forecast 2022
January 12091 12696 10284 10181 12394
February 13299 14097 12969 12062 13455
March 16565 17228 15505 14575 16433
April 18343 19260 18297 17931 18633
May 25086 26842 24426 22717 25451
June 28901 31213 29652 26984 29922
July 28746 29608 26648 26115 28334
August 21032 21874 18593 18035 20500
September 19035 19796 17817 17104 18883
October 12551 13304 10643 9898 12166
November 13135 14054 13352 12150 13514
December 10268 10679 9077 8351 10008

Insert here the graph for the sales data of the last 4 years
Forecast 2023 MAD
SMA WMA Exponential Smoothing SMA WMA

The most accurate forecast method for this data is:

SMA 3-year
WMA t-1 = 60%, t-2 =30%, t-3=10%
ES Alpha = 0,7
MAD
Exponential Smoothing
TREKKING Year Foreca
Month 2020 2021 2022 2023 Forecast 2022 SMA
January 48364 50782 41133 40722 49573
February 53195 56387 51876 48245 54791
March 66260 68911 62020 58299 67586
April 73369 77037 73185 71722 75203
May 100343 107367 97704 90865 103855
June 115602 124850 118608 107933 120226
July 114983 118432 106589 104457 116708
August 84128 87494 74370 72139 85811
September 76138 79184 71266 68415 77661
October 50203 53215 42572 39592 51709
November 52538 56216 53405 48599 54377
December 41072 42715 36307 33403 41894

Insert here the graph for the sales data of the last 4 years

SMA
WMA
ES
Forecast 2023 MAD
WMA Exponential Smoothing SMA WMA Exponential Smoothing

The most accurate forecast method for this data is:

3-year
t-1 = 60%, t-2 =30%, t-3=10%
Alpha = 0,7
E-BIKE Year
Month 2020 2021 2022 2023 Forecast 2022
January 25956 40751 44827 49757 33354
February 24789 39911 44900 50287 32350
March 25689 40589 45460 50960 33139
April 28956 47488 53852 60260 38222
May 28956 44014 50175 55193 36485
June 29103 48603 55893 63159 38853
July 29058 46784 52398 58162 37921
August 29455 46539 52124 58379 37997
September 28345 48187 53488 59906 38266
October 28034 45696 52093 58344 36865
November 27940 44146 49885 55871 36043
December 28165 43656 49768 55740 35911

Insert here the graph for the sales data of the last 4 years
Forecast 2023 MAD
SMA WMA Exponential Smoothing SMA WMA

The most accurate forecast method for this data is:

SMA 3-year
WMA t-1 = 60%, t-2 =30%, t-3=10%
ES Alpha = 0,7
MAD
Exponential Smoothing

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