Activity III.

Probability
Learning Outcomes:

At the end of this lesson, the learners will be able to;

1.Illustrate the concept of probability.

2. Determine the types of probability.

3. Find the probability of event by applying its rules and

laws.

MOTIVATION
In the 17th century, two mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de
Fermat carried on correspondence discussing mathematical problems
dealing with games of chance. They were confronted with questions raised
by gamblers: How can the uncertainty of the outcomes of games, such as
coins, dice or deck of cards, be measured? What constitutes a fair bet?
Attempts to answer these questions led to the birth of probability theory.

DISCUSSION
Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with calculating the
occurrence of a given event.

Definition: The probability of an event A, denoted by P(A), is the sum of

the probabilities of each sample point in A. Hence, if A has sample points
then
P (A) = P { }+P{ }+P{ } +…+ P { }

Properties of Probability

1. 0 ≤ P (A) 1. (This means that the probability of an event lies

between 0 and 1)
2. If A= , then P (A) = 0. (This means that the probability than an
impossible event will happen is 0.)
3. If A=S, then P (A) = P(S) = 1. This means that the probability of a
sample space is equal to 1. Hence, the sample space can also be
thought of as a sure event.

Approaches in Measuring Probability

A. Subjective Approach
- The probability depends on one’s personal assessment of how
likely an event will occur.
- It uses personal beliefs, intuition and other indirect information in
arriving probabilities.

Example: A Lakers supporter might say “I believe that the Lakers have a
0.9 probability of winning the NBA this year since they have been playing
very well.”

B. Empirical or Relative Frequency Approach

- The probability of an event A is approximated by the proportion of
times that an event A occurs when the experiment is repeated a
very large number of times.
- It is expressed in terms of relative frequencies.
Example:

1. Suppose that a coin is tossed 100 times under the same conditions.
Suppose further that the coin fall heads 45 times out of 100. Based
from the outcome of this experiment, what is the probability of getting
a head when a coin is tossed?

Solution: P (getting a head)= = .

2. Consider the table below. Find the probability that the weight of a
Math 32 student drawn at random is
Frequency Distribution Table of Weights of Math 31 Students
Weight in kg f

40-46 6

47-53 14

54-60 10

61-67 6

68-74 2

75-81 2

a. Between 54 kg and 60 kg;

b. Less than 68 kg
Solution: a.) P (54 kg and 60 kg) = =

b.) P (less than 68 kg) =

 C. Classical or Theoretical Approach
- Probability is computed based on theoretical assumptions about
the possible outcomes.
Suppose we can assume that all the possible outcomes of an
experiment are equally likely, that is, each has the same chance of
occurring. Then probability of an event A is equal to the number of
possible outcomes favourable to A, denoted by n (A), divided by
the total number of outcomes of the experiment, denoted by n (S).
That is,

P (A) =

Some Rules of Probability

Law 1. If A and B are any events, then

P (A = P (A) + P (B) – P ( A ∩ B).

A B
 In the Venn diagram above, P (A is the sum of the probabilities
of the sample points in A Now, P (A) + P (B) is the sum of all
probabilities of the points in A and the sum of all the probabilities in B. The
points found in A are counted twice, hence, it has to be deducted from
P (A) + P (B). Thus, if A and B are any events, then

P (A = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B).

Events using or, either, more than, at least, etc. can be written
mathematically as the union of events. On the other hand, events using
and, both common, together, all, etc. means the intersection of events.

Example:

1. If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards what

is the probability that it will either be a diamond or a queen?

Solution: Let A be the event that a diamond will be drawn and let B be the
event that a queen will be drawn. The probability that it will either be
diamond or a queen is equal to P (A . Note that P (A) = 13/52, P (B) =
4/52 and P (A ∩ B) =1/52. Hence,

P (A = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B) = 13/52 + 4/52 -1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13.

2. In tossing a coin twice, what is the probability of getting at least

one tail?

Solution: P (one head) =2/4, P (two heads) =1/4, and P (one head and two
heads at the same time) = 0 since an event with one head can never have
two heads.
Hence, P (at least one head) = P (one head or two heads) = P (one head
two heads) =2/4 + ¼ = ¾.

Law 2. If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P (A = P (A) + P (B).

A B

Mutually Exclusive Events – are events that do not have common sample
points, that is,

A B= . In other words, the events cannot occur simultaneously.

Example:

1. In the experiment of tossing a die, let E be the event that an even

number of dots come up and F be the event that an odd number of
dots will come up. Then
S = {1, 2, 3,4, 5,6}
E = {2, 4, 6}
F = {1, 3, 5}
P (A = P (A) + P (B) = 3/6 +3/6 =1
2. If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of playing cards, what is the
probability that it will either be an ace or a king?

Solution: Let A be the event of drawing an ace and K be the event of

drawing a king. Then

P (A) = 4/52, P (K) = 4/52, P (A = 4/52 + 4/52 =8/52 = 2/13.

Law 3. If A is an event, then P (A’) = 1- P (A).

The complement of an event A, denoted by A’, is the set of all points

in the sample space S but not in A.

Events stated using “not”, outside, etc. can be written mathematically as

complement of the event. Neither A nor B can be written as (A B)’ = 1 –
P (A B).

Law 4. If A and B are events, then P ( A B’) = P(A) – P (A B).

Example:

1. When a pair of dice is tossed, what is the probability that the sum of
points will not be 5?
Solution: P(not getting a sum of 5) = 1 – P (getting a sum of 5) = 1 –
4/36 = 32/36
2. If the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.7, what is the probability
that it will not rain?
Ans.: 0.3
3. If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, what is
the probability that neither a heart nor a king will be drawn?
Ans.: P (A B)’ = 1 – P (A B) = 1- 4/13 = 9/13.
4. Referring to Exam number 3 above, what is the probability that a
heart but not a king will be drawn?
Ans.: P (A B’) = P (A) – P (A B) = 13/52 – 1/52 = 12/52.
Conditional Probability

In drawing a card from an ordinary deck of playing cards, the

probability of drawing a heart is 13/52 or ¼. However, if we are told that the
card drawn is a red card, then what is the probability that the card is a
heart? Since we know it is a red card and there are only 26 red cards, then
the probability that it is a heart is 13/26 or ½. Such is called a conditional
probability.

Definition. Let and be events such that P ( ) > 0. The conditional

probability of given that has occurred, denoted by P ( ), is
defined by

P( )= .

Example:

1. Fifteen cards numbered 1 through 15 are placed in a box,

mixed and then one card is drawn at random. If the card drawn is an even
numbered card, what is the probability that its number is divisible by 3?

Solution: Let A be the event “the card’s number is divisible by 3” and B be

the event “the card is an even numbered card”. We want to find P( A|B).
Observed that P(B) = 7/15. The event that the card’s number is both even
and divisible by 3, happens only when the number of the cards are 6 and
12. Hence P (A B) = 2/15. Therefore, the desired probability is

P (A |B) = = = .
 2. The probability that a certain movie will get an award for good
acting is 0.15; for good directing is 0.25; and for both is 0.10. What is the
probability that the movie will get the award for?
a. Good acting given that it gets the award for good directing?
b. Good directing given that it gets the award for good acting?
Solution:
Let A be the event for good acting and let D be the event for good directing.
So, P (A) = 0.15, P (D) = 0.25, and P (A D) = 0. 10. Hence

a. P (A|D) = = = 0.4 or 2/5

b. P (D|A) = = = 2/3

Definition: Two events are independent if either

P (A|B) = P (A) or P (B|A) = P(B). Otherwise, A and B are dependent.

Example. Suppose P (A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.2, P(C) = 0.4, P (A B) = 0.06,

P (A C) = 0.10, and P (B C) = 0.08.
a. Determine P (A|B)
b. Are A and B independent?
c. Determine P(B|C)
d. Determine P (A|C)
e. Are A and C independent?

Solution: a. P (A|B) = = = 0.3

b. Since P (A|B) = P (A), A and B are independent.

c. P(B|A) = = = = 0.2
d. P(A|C) = 0.25
e. A and C are not independent since P(A|C) P(A).
Multiplicative Rules. If in an experiment the events A and B can both
occur, then

P (A B) = P(A)P(B|A) or P(A B) = P(B) P(A|B).

If events A and B are independent, then P (A B) = P(A)P(B).

Example:

1. A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of

getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

Solution: Let A be the event for a flipped coin and B be the event for a die.

P(A B) = P(A)P(B) = =

2. World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the

residents of a city had homeowner’s insurance (H) with the company. Of
these clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company. If
a resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident has
both homeowner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide Insurance
Company.

Solution:

P (H A) = P(H) P(A|H) = (0.53) (0.27) = 0.1431