UNIT 2 (Bring forward corrections/suggestions/comments on this module)

2.1 Unit objectives

By the end of this unit, you should be able to:

1. Define reliability,
2. State and explain different forms of components arrangements,
3. Calculate reliability of a system,
4. Calculate expected life of a system, and
5. Calculate failure rate of a system.

2.2 Reliability

Reliability, Ri , is the probability that a machine or component i functions satisfactorily over

the interval [0,t]. An overall system reliability prediction can be made by looking at the
reliabilities of the components that make up the whole system or product. In this unit, we will
examine the methods of performing such calculations. We will first look at different
component arrangements, also known as structural properties (Leemis). Unless explicitly
stated, the components will be assumed to be statistically independent. Statistically
independent implies that failure of one component does not affect other components in the
system. This unit includes the following sections:

 Component Arrangements.
 Calculation of system reliability.
 Expected life of a system.
 Failure rate of a system.

2.3 Component Arrangements

In order to construct a reliability diagram, the arrangements of the components must be

determined. Consequently, the analysis method used for computing the reliability of a system
will also depend on the arrangement of the components/subsystems. That arrangement can be
as simple as units arranged in a pure series or parallel configuration. There can also be
systems of combined series/parallel arrangements or complex systems that cannot be
decomposed into groups of series and parallel arrangements. The arrangement types
considered in this module include:

 Series system.
 Simple parallel system.
 Mixed system.
 K-out-n system.

Each of these arrangements will be presented, along with analysis methods, in the sections
that follow.

2.3.1 Series Systems

1 2 n-1 n

1 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

In a series arrangement, a failure of any component results in failure for the entire system. In
most cases when considering complete systems at their basic subsystem level, it is found that
these are arranged in a series system. For example, a personal computer may consist of four
basic subsystems: the motherboard, the hard drive, the power supply and the processor. These
are in series and a failure of any one of these subsystems will cause a system failure. In other
words, all of the units in a series system must function properly for the system to function
satisfactorily.

The reliability of the system is the probability that component 1functions and component 2
functions and all of the other components in the system function. So, all n units must function
for the system to function. The reliability of the system is then given by:

Rss  P( X i ) for i=1, 2, 3, ...., n

Rss  P( X1 ) * P( X 2 ) * ... * P( X n ) , since components are statistically independent.

Where:

 Rss = reliability of the series system.

 Xi = event that component i is functional at time t.
 P(Xi) = probability that component i is functional at time t.

This can be simplified to:

n
Rss   P( X i ).
i 1

If the reliability of individual components 1, 2, ...., n is P, then:

n n
Rss   P( X i )   p  p n .
i 1 i 1

For a series system, the reliability of the system is equal to the product of the reliabilities of
its individual components

Example 1

Three subsystems are connected in series and make up a system. Subsystem 1 has a reliability
of 0.995, subsystem 2 has a reliability of 0.987 and subsystem 3 has a reliability of 0.973.
What is the overall reliability of the system?

Solution to example 1

Since the components are connected in series, the reliability of the system is simply:

0.9950 0.9870 0.9730

2 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

Rss  p1 * p2 * p3 .
 0.9950 * 0.9870 * 0.9730.
 0.956.

Effect of Component Reliability in a Series System

In a series system, the component with the smallest reliability has the biggest effect on the
system's reliability. There is a common saying that "a chain is only as strong as its weakest
link." This is a good example of the effect of a component in a series system. In a chain, all
the rings are in series and if any of the rings break, the system fails. In addition, the weakest
link in the chain is the one that will break first. The weakest link dictates the strength of the
chain in the same way that the weakest component/subsystem dictates the reliability of a
series system. As a result, the reliability of a series system is always less than the reliability
of the least reliable component.

Example 3
Consider three components arranged in series, where p1 = 0.60, p 2 =0.70 and p 3 = 0.80.
In the following table, we examine the effect of each component's reliability on the overall
system reliability. The first row of the table shows the given reliabilities for each component
and the corresponding system reliability for these values. In the second row, the reliability of
Component 1 is increased by a value of 0.10 while keeping the reliabilities of the other two
components constant. Similarly, by increasing the reliabilities of Components 2 and 3 in rows
3 and 4 by a value of 0.10, while keeping the reliabilities of the other components at the given
values, we can observe the effect of each component's reliability on the overall system
reliability.

Table 2.1: Effect of each component's reliability on the overall system reliability

Component 1 Component 2 Component 3 System

Reliability
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.504
0.7 0.7 0.8 0.576
0.6 0.8 0.8 0.567
0.6 0.7 0.9 0.555

It is clear that the highest value for the system's reliability was achieved when the reliability
of Component 1, which is the least reliable component, was increased by a value of 10%.
This can be shown graphically by figure 2.1 below.

3 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

Figure 2.1: Effect of increasing component reliability on the overall system reliability.

Effect of Number of Components in a Series System

The number of components is another concern in systems with components reliability-wise in

series. As the number of components in series increases, the system's reliability decreases.

As noted earlier on, the reliability of a series system is given by:

n n
Rss   P( X i )   p  p n .
i 1 i 1

n
As n   , the expression Rss   p  p n  0, since 0  p  1. The higher the value of n
i 1
the faster it tends to zero.

Table 2.2 below illustrates the effect of the number of components arranged in series on the
system's reliability for different component reliability values. This figure also demonstrates
the dramatic effect that the number of components has on the system's reliability, particularly
when the component reliability is low. In other words, in order to achieve high system
reliability, the component reliability must be high also, especially for systems with many
components arranged in series.

4 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

Table 2.2: Effect of the number of components arranged in series on the system's
reliability for different component reliability values.

Number of System System

components reliability(0.95) reliability(0.80)
1 0.95 0.8
2 0.9025 0.64
4 0.8145 0.512
6 0.7351 0.262144
8 0.6634 0.16777216
10 0.5987 0.107374182
11 0.5688 0.085899346

As evidenced by the table above, the reliability of the system decreases with an increase of
number of components in the system if components are connected in series. The table also
shows that if the components have low reliability, the rate at which the overall system
reliability tends to zero when increasing number of components in series is faster than when
the reliability of the component is high.

Figure 2.2: Effect of the number of components in a series configuration for two
different cases.
Example 4

Consider a system that consists of a single component. The reliability of the component is
0.95, thus the reliability of the system is 0.95. What would the reliability of the system be if
there were more than one component (with the same individual reliability) in series? Table
2.2 shows the effect on the system's reliability by adding consecutive components (with the
same reliability) in series.

5 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

2.3.2 Simple Parallel Systems

In a simple parallel system, as shown in Figure 4.5, at least one of the components must
function satisfactorily for the system to function. Components in parallel are also referred to
as redundant components. Redundancy is a very important aspect of system design and
reliability in that adding redundancy is one of several methods of improving system
reliability. This type of arrangement is widely used in:

 Aerospace industry,
 RAID computer hard drive systems,
 Brake systems,
 Support cables in bridges, etc.

The diagrammatic representation of a parallel system is as shown below:

n-1

Figure 2.3: Simple parallel system.

The probability of failure for a system with n statistically independent parallel components is
the probability that component 1 fails and component 2 fails and all of the other components
in the system fail. So in a parallel system, all n components must fail for the system to fail.
This is to say, if component 1 functions or component 2 functions or any of the n components
functions, then the whole system will function. The reliability of the system is then given by:

Rps  1  P( X i )

Where:

 R ps = reliability of the system.

 Xi = event that component i functions satisfactorily.
 P(Xi) = probability that component i functions satisfactorily.

Or, in terms of component unreliability:

The reliability of the parallel system is then given by:

6 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application
Rps  1  [(1  p1 ) * (1  p2 )    (1  pn )]
n
 1   (1  pi ).
i 1

n
If pi  p, then Rps  1   (1  p)  1  (1  p)n . As n   , Rps  1.
i 1

Example 5

Consider a system consisting of three subsystems arranged reliability-wise in parallel.

Subsystem 1 has a reliability of 0.995, Subsystem 2 has a reliability of 0.987 and Subsystem
3 has a reliability of 0.973. What is the overall reliability of the system?

Solution to Example 5

Since the reliabilities of the subsystems are arranged in parallel, the reliability of the system
is:

R ps  1  (1  0.9950) * (1  0.9870) * (1  0.9730)

 1  0.000001755

 0.999998245.

Effect of Component Reliability in a Parallel Configuration

When we examined a system of components in series, we found that the least reliable
component has the biggest effect on the reliability of the system. However, the component
with the highest reliability in a parallel system has the biggest effect on the system's
reliability, since the most reliable component is the one that will most likely fail last. This is a
very important property of the parallel system, specifically in the design and improvement of
systems.

Example 6

Consider three components arranged reliability-wise in parallel with p1 = 0.60, p 2 = 0.70 and
p 3 = 0.80. The corresponding reliability for the system is RPS = 0.976. In Table 3, we can
examine the effect of each component's reliability on the overall system reliability. The first
row of the table shows the given reliabilities for each component and the corresponding
system reliability for these values. In the second row, the reliability of Component 1 is
increased by a value of 0.10 while keeping the reliability of the other two components
constant. Similarly, by increasing the reliabilities of Components 2 and 3 in the third and
fourth rows by a value of 0.10 while keeping the reliabilities of the other components at the
given values, we can observe the effect of each component's reliability on the overall system
reliability. It is clear that the highest value for the system's reliability was achieved when the
7 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application
reliability of Component 3, which is the most reliable component, was increased. Once again,
this is the opposite of what was encountered with a pure series system.

Table 3: System reliability for combinations of component reliabilities

Component 1 Component 2 Component 3 System Reliability

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.976
0.7 0.7 0.8 0.982
0.6 0.8 0.8 0.984
0.6 0.7 0.9 0.988

Figure 2.4: Rate of change of parallel system reliability when increasing the reliability
of each component.
Effect of Number of Components in Parallel

In the case of the parallel system, the number of components has the opposite effect of the
one observed for the series configuration. For a parallel system, as the number of
components/subsystems increases, the system's reliability increases.
Failure rate

1 2 3 ... ... ... n Number of components

Fig 4.7: Effect of number of components in parallel

Figure 2.5: Reliability of a system with n statistically independent and identical

components arranged in parallel.

Figure 4.7 illustrates that a high system reliability can be achieved with low-reliability
components, provided that there are a sufficient number of components in parallel. Note that
Figure 4.7 is the mirror image of Figure 4.3, which presents the effect of the number of
components in a series configuration.
8 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application
Example 7

Consider a system that consists of a single component. The reliability of the component is
0.60, thus the reliability of the system is 0.60. What would the reliability of the system be if
the system were composed of two, four or six such components in parallel?

Clearly, the reliability of a system can be improved by adding redundancy. However, it must
be noted that doing so is usually costly in terms of additional components, additional weight,
volume, etc.

Reliability optimization and costs are covered in textbooks of reliability analysis and is
beyond the scope of this module.

2.3.3 Mixed systems-Combination of Series and Parallel

While many smaller systems can be accurately represented by either a simple series or parallel
system, there may be larger systems that involve both series and parallel systems in the
overall system. Such systems can be analyzed by calculating the reliabilities for the
individual series and parallel sections and then combining them in the appropriate manner.
Such a methodology is illustrated in the following example.

Example 8

Consider a system with three components. Units 1 and 2 are connected in series and Unit 3 is
connected in parallel with the first two, as shown in the next figure.

What is the reliability of the system if p1 = 0.995, p 2 = 0.987 and p 3 = 0.973?

Solution to Example 8

First, the reliability of the series segment consisting of Units 1 and 2 is calculated:

R1, 2  p1 * p 2
 0.995 * 0.987
 0.9821

9 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

The reliability of the overall system is then calculated by treating Units 1 and 2 as one unit
with a reliability of 0.9821 connected in parallel with component 3. Therefore:

Rms  1  [(1  0.9821) * (1  0.9730)]

 1  0.000484245
 0.9995.

2.3.4 K-out-of-n Parallel System

The k-out-of-n arrangement is a special case of parallel system. This type of arrangement
requires that at least k components succeed out of the total n parallel components for the
system to function. For example, consider an airplane that has four engines. Furthermore,
suppose that the design of the aircraft is such that at least two engines are required to function
for the aircraft to remain airborne. This means that the engines are in a k-out-of-n system,
where k = 2 and n = 4. More specifically, they are in a 2-out-of-4 arrangement.

Figure 4.9: 2-out-of-4 arrangement.

Even though we classified the k-out-of-n system a special case of parallel system, it can also
be viewed as a general arrangement type. As the number of components required to keep the
system functioning approaches the total number of units in the system, the system's behaviour
tends towards that of a series system. If the number of units required is equal to the number
of units in the system, it is a series system. In other words, a series system of statistically

10 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

independent components is an n-out-of-n system and a parallel system of statistically
independent components is a 1-out-of-n system.

Reliability of k-out-of-n Independent and Identical Components

The simplest case of components in a k-out-of-n system is when the components are
independent and identical. In other words, all the components have the same failure
distribution and whenever a failure occurs, the remaining components are not affected. In this
case, the reliability of the system with such a arrangement can be evaluated using the
binomial distribution, or:

Where:

 n is the total number of components in parallel.

 k is the minimum number of components required for system success.
 R is the reliability of each component.

Example 9

Consider a system of six pumps of which at least four must function properly for system
success. Each pump has a reliability of p =0.85. What is the probability of the system?

Solution to Example 9

Using Eqn. (6) for k = 4 and n = 6:

11 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

One can examine the effect of increasing the number of components required for system
success while the total number of units remains constant (in this example, six units). In
Figure 4.9, the reliability of the k-out-of-6 arrangement was plotted versus different numbers
of required components.

Note that the system arrangement becomes a simple parallel configuration for k = 1 and the
system is a six unit series arrangement ((0.85)6 = 0.377) for k = 6.

Figure 4.10: Reliability of a k-out-of-6 arrangement for k values.

Reliability of Non-identical k-out-of-n Independent Components

In the case where the k-out-of-n components are not identical, the reliability must be
calculated in a different way. One approach is to use the event space method. In this method,
all possible operational combinations are considered in order to obtain the system's reliability.
The method is illustrated with the following example.

12 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

Example 10

Three hard drives in a computer system are arranged in parallel. At least two of them must
function in order for the computer to work properly. Each hard drive is of the same size and
speed, but they are made by different manufacturers and have different reliabilities. The
reliability of HD1 is 0.9, HD 2 is 0.88 and HD 3 is 0.85. What is the reliability of the system?

Solution to Example 10

Since at least two hard drives must be functioning at all times, only one failure is allowed.
This is a 2-out-of-3 arrangement.

The following operational combinations are possible for a system success:

1. All 3 hard drives operate.

2. HD 1 fails, while HDs 2 and 3 continue to operate.
3. HD 2 fails, while HDs 1 and 3 continue to operate.
4. HD 3 fails, while HDs 1 and 2 continue to operate.

The probability of success for the system (reliability) can now be expressed as:

This equation for the reliability of the system can be reduced to:

Or:

If all three hard drives had the same reliability, R, then the equation for the reliability of the
system could be further reduced to:

Or, using the binomial approach:

13 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

2.3.5 Path-Tracing Method

The path-tracing method uses every path from a starting point to an ending point. Since
system success involves having at least one path available from one end to the other, as long
as at least one path from the beginning to the end of the path is available, then the system has
not failed. One could consider the example of a plumbing schematic. If a component in the
system fails, the "water'" can no longer flow through it. As long as there is at least one path
for the "water" to flow from the start to the end of the system, the system is successful. This
method involves identifying all of the paths the "water" could take and calculating the
reliability of the path based on the components that lie along that path. The reliability of the
system is simply the probability of the union of these paths. In order to maintain consistency
of the analysis, starting and ending blocks for the system must be defined.

Example 12

Obtain the reliability equation of the following system.

D
A

Solution to Analytical System Reliability Example 11

The successful paths for this system are:

The reliability of the system is simply the probability of the union of these paths:

14 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

Thus:

Example 13

Obtain the reliability equation of the following system.

Solution to Example 13

Assume starting and ending blocks that cannot fail, as shown next.

The paths for this system are:

The probability of success of the system is given by:

Or:

15 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

 (7)

2.4 Expected life of a System

The failure of a unit in a system means the termination of the unit's ability to perform the
required function. Suppose that the time to failure T has the probability density function f (t ) .
The failure distribution function is the probability of an item failing in the time interval [0,t].
t
F (t )  P(T  t )   f (t )dt where t  0.
0
The reliability function or survivor function is the probability of a unit which does not fail in
the time interval [0,t].
Rt  1  F (t )  P(T  t ).
The mean time to failure (MTTF) of a unit is:

 
MTTF  E (T )   tf (t )dt   Rt dt.
0 0
Exponential Distribution
1
 t
1. Reliability function Rt  e 

1
 t
2. Failure Distribution function F (t )  1  e 

1
1  t
3. Density function of failure f (t )  e 

f (t ) 1
4. Failure rate  (t )  
Rt 
 1
 t
5. Mean Time to Failure MTTF   e 
dt  
0
n

  i)
1
n ( t
6. System Reliability(series) Rss   pi  e 1

i 1
n
1
7. Cummulative Failure rate  (t )   i
i 1 
2.5 Failure Rate of a system

Consider a component or system that performed successfully over the interval [0, t]. If the
variable of this component is time to failure T, then we can denote the probability of the
distribution of the time to failure of the component by F and the density function given by f.


1, if T  t.
It is clear that T  
0, if T  t.


16 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

 
f (t )
Then Rt  P( X  1)  1  F (t )   f ( y)dy. Therefore the failure rate  (t )  . The failure
t
Rt
rate function is defined for those values of t for which F (t) <1. The probabilistic
interpretation of this function is that  (t)dt represents the conditional probability that an
object surviving to age t will fail in the interval [t, t+dt]. This function is also called the
hazard rate.

Failure rate tends to increase with time, this could be due to over usage of a component or
system. A failure rate that remains constant or increases with age is said to have an increasing
failure rate (IFR). In some applications, the failure rate tends to decrease with age. Certain
solid-state electronic devices are believed to have a decreasing failure rate. The failure rate
that remains constant or decreases with age is said to have a decreasing failure rate (DFR).

The time to failure distribution is completely determined by the failure rate. It can easily be
shown that:
t


  ( ) d
Rt  1  F (t )  e 0
.

Example 15

Consider a component whose failure distribution is given by the exponential, that is:
x
1 
f ( x)  e  . Find the failure rate of this component.


Solution to Example 15.

First find F(t).

t t x
1 
F (t )   f ( x)dx   e dx 

0 0


t x x t
1   t 

 e
0

dx.  [e 
o
]  1 e . 

t t
 
Therefore, Rt  1  F (t ) =1- 1  e   e 
.
t
1 

e
 (t )  
1
 .

1


e

17 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

The exponential distribution has a constant failure rate. Its failure rate does not depend on
time. Diagrammatically, we illustrate the behaviour of the exponential distribution in figure
2.5 below.

DFR IFR
Failure rate

Constant

Time

Figure 2.5: Diagrammatical representation of Failure rate

In fact, using the expression relating the time to failure distribution and the failure rate, it is
evident that a component having a constant failure rate must have a time to failure
distribution that is exponential.

18 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

Self testing exercises

1. (a) A time to failure distribution is said to have a Weibull distribution if the probability
density function is given by:

f(t) = t  1et ,   0.
Find the failure rate, and show that the Weibull is IFR(increasing failure rate) when   1
and DFR(decreasing failure rate)when 0    1.

2. The diagram below shows a reliability of a system. In the system, the components
function independently of each other with reliabilities given in the boxes. Determine the
reliability of the system.

0.91 0.92

0.95 0.92 0.97

3. Consider the following network:

3
1

2 4

Assume that each component is independent with probability p i of performing satisfactorily.

(a) Find all the minimal paths and cuts.
(b) Calculate the exact system reliability, and evaluate it when pi  p  0.95 .

4. Consider a system of two independent components whose failure rate is exponentially

distributed with failure rate 1 and  2 respectively. Determine the probability that

19 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

 component 1 fails before component 2 fails.

5. The diagram below shows the layout of 14 engines used by “Air Force 1” a plane
used by the African leader. The reliability of one engine is 0.98. Calculate the reliability of
the whole plane in terms of the engines reliability.

6. (a) Suppose that a series system has two components, and that the components function
independently of each other for an amount of time (in hours) uniformly distributed
over the interval (0,100). Find the system’s:
(i) Reliability function,
(ii) Failure rate function, and
(iii) Expected life.

7. The diagram below shows a mixed system. In the system the components function
independently of each other with reliabilities given in the boxes. Calculate the reliability of
the system.

P3

p1 P4

P2

8. A system will function as long as at least one of the three components functions. When all
three components are functioning, the distribution of the life of each component is

20 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

 1
exponential with parameter . When only two are functioning, the distribution of the life of
3
1
each of the two is exponential with parameter and only one is functioning, the distribution
2
of its life is exponential with parameter  .
(a) What is the distribution of the lifetime of the system?
(b) Suppose now that only one component (of the three components) is used at a time and
it is replaced when it fails. What is the distribution of the lifetime of such a system?

9.

C2
C1

C3

The system in the sketch above will function as long as component C1 and at least one of the
components C2 and C3 functions. Let Xi be random variable denoting the lifetime of the
component Ci, i= 1, 2 and 3. Let Y = max[X2, X3] and Z= min[X1, Y]. Assume that the
X i ' s are independent (negative) exponential random variables with mean 1.

(a) Find E(Z) and Var(Z).

(b) Find the distribution of the lifetime of the system.

10. A system, which is composed of two components, will function as long as at least one of
the two components functions. When both components are operating, the lifetime distribution
of each is exponential with mean 1. However, the distribution of the remaining lifetime of the
good component, after one fails, is exponential with mean ½. (The idea is that after one
component fails the other component carries twice the load and hence has only half the
expected lifetime.) Find the lifetime of the distribution.

11. Show that the structure function for a system, consisting of 4 components which
functions if and only if component 1 and 2 function and at least one of the components 3
or 4 function, is given by:

 ( X1, X 2 , X 3 , X 4 )  X1 X 2 max( X 3 , X 4 ).

12. Show that the structure function for a system, consisting of three components which
function if and only if component 1 functions and at least one of the components 2 or 3
functions, is given by:

21 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application

 ( X 1 X 2 X 3 )  X 1[1  (1  X 2 )(1  X 3 )].

13. A time to failure distribution is said to have a Weibull distribution if the cumulative
distribution function is given by:


t 
F(t) = 1  e ,  ,  0.

Find the failure rate, and show that the Weibull is IFR when   1 and DFR when 0    1.

Selected References

1. Barlow R.E and Proschan F: Mathematical Theory of Reliability, Wiley, New York,
1965.

2. Lieberman G.J : “The status and Impact of Reliability Methodology”, Naval Research
logistics Quarterly, 16(1):17-35,1969.

3. Ross S: Introduction to Probability Models, Academic Press, New York, 1972.

4. Shooman M.L: Probabilistic Reliability-An Engineering Approach, McGraw-Hill,

New York, 1968.

5. Kececioglu, D., Reliability and Life Testing Handbook, Prentice Hall, 1993.

6. Hoyland, A. and M. Rausand, System Reliability Theory: Models and Statistical

Methods, Wiley, NY, 1994.

7. Nelson, W., Applied Life Data Analysis, Wiley, NY, 1982.

8. Mann, N., R. Schafer, and N. Singpurwalla, Methods for Statistical Analysis of

Reliability and Life Data, John Wiley, NY, 1974.

9. O'Connor, P., Practical Reliability Engineering, Wiley, NY, 2003.

10. Romeu, J.L. Reliability Estimations for Exponential Life, RIAC START, Volume 10.

22 Mwembe | Introduction to Reliability and its Application