Scribd
Upload
1 views18 pages

Probability

The document discusses the application of probability concepts in Human Resource Management (HRM) to make data-driven decisions regarding employee turnover, recruitment success, and project deadlines. It covers various approaches to probability, including classical, empirical, and subjective methods, as well as rules of addition and multiplication, conditional probability, and Bayes' theorem. Additionally, it explains permutations and combinations in the context of HR tasks such as scheduling interviews and forming project teams.

Uploaded by

sohel523858
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
1 views18 pages

Probability

The document discusses the application of probability concepts in Human Resource Management (HRM) to make data-driven decisions regarding employee turnover, recruitment success, and project deadlines. It covers various approaches to probability, including classical, empirical, and subjective methods, as well as rules of addition and multiplication, conditional probability, and Bayes' theorem. Additionally, it explains permutations and combinations in the context of HR tasks such as scheduling interviews and forming project teams.

Uploaded by

sohel523858
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 18

Probability in

HRM: Making
Data-Driven
Decisions
Understanding Probability
Concepts for Better Workforce
Management

Abdur Rahman
lecturer
Statistics Discipline
Khulna University

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 1


Introduction to Probability

• Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur.

• Predicting employee turnover, success of recruitment campaigns, or


the likelihood of meeting project deadlines.

• What is the probability that a new hire will stay with the company
for more than 2 years?

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 2


Probability in decision

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 3


Approaches to Probability
• Classical Approach: Equal likelihood of outcomes (e.g., rolling a fair die).
• Empirical Approach: Based on historical data (e.g., turnover rates from
past years).
• Subjective Approach: Based on personal judgment (e.g., manager’s
intuition about a candidate’s fit).
• HR Application: Using historical data to predict future hiring needs or
employee performance.

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 4


Complementary Rule
• Definition: The probability of an event NOT occurring.
• Formula: P(A′)=1−P(A)P(A′)=1−P(A)
• HR Application: Calculating the probability of an
employee NOT leaving the organization.
• Example: If the probability of an employee leaving is
20%, the probability of them staying is 80%.

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 5


Rules of Addition
• Definition: Probability of either of two events occurring.
• Formula: P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
• HR Application: Calculating the probability of either of two
candidates accepting a job offer.
• Example: Probability of Candidate A or Candidate B accepting the
offer.

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 6


Rules of Addition

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 7


Rules of Multiplication

• Definition: Probability of two events occurring together.


• Formula: P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)
• HR Application: Calculating the probability of an employee being
both high-performing and loyal.
• Example: Probability of an employee completing training AND
getting promoted.

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 8


AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 9
Conditional Probability
• Definition: Probability of an event given that another event has
already occurred.
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
• Formula: 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐵) =
𝑃 𝐵

• HR Application: Predicting employee performance based on past


training outcomes.
• Example: What is the probability of an employee performing well if
they attended a leadership workshop?
AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 10
Bayes’ Theorem
• Definition: Updating probabilities based on new information.

𝑃 𝐵𝐴 ×𝑃 𝐴
• Formula: 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ 𝐵) =
𝑃 𝐵

• HR Application: Revising the probability of a candidate’s success


based on interview feedback.
• Example: Updating the likelihood of a candidate being a good fit
after reference checks.

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 11


Basics of Permutation and Combination
Content:
• Permutation: Arrangement of items where order matters.
• Combination: Selection of items where order does not matter.
• HR Application:
• Permutation: Scheduling interviews with candidates in a specific order.
• Combination: Selecting a team of employees for a project.

• Example: How many ways can you form a committee of 3 from 10


employees?
AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 12
AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 13
Permutation Combination

In Permutation order of arrangement is important. In Combination order of arrangement is not important.


For example, AB and BA are different combinations. For example, AB and BA are the same combinations.

A permutation is used when different kinds of things Combinations are used when the same kind of things are
are to be sorted or arranged. to be sorted.

Permutation of two things out of three given things the combination of two things from three given things
a, b, c is ab, ba, bc, cb, ac, ca. a, b, c is ab, bc, ca.

𝒏! n 𝒏!
Formula for permuation is: n Pr = The formula for Combination is: Cr =
𝒏–𝒓 ! 𝒓! × 𝒏 – 𝒓 !

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 14


Example 1: In how many ways a committee consisting of
4 men and 2 women, can be chosen from 6 men and 5
women?

• This is a permutation or combination problem?

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 15


Example 1: In how many ways a committee consisting of
4 men and 2 women, can be chosen from 6 men and 5
women?

• Choose 4 men out of 6 men = 6C4 ways = 15 ways

• Choose 2 women out of 5 women = 5C2 ways = 10 ways

• The committee can be chosen in 6C4 × 5C2 = 150 ways.

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 16


Example 3: In how many ways can 5 different books be
arranged on a shelf ?

Permutation or combination?

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 17


Example 3: In how many ways can 5 different books be
arranged on a shelf ?

This is a permutation problem because the order of the books matters.

• sing the permutation formula, we get:

• 5P5 = 5! / (5 – 5)! = 5! / 0! = 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 120

• Therefore, there are 120 ways to arrange 5 different books on a


shelf.

AR, Lecturer, Stat, KU 18

You might also like