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Modelling, Simulation and Control
of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 Numerical Insights
Series Editor
A. Sydow, GMD-FIRST, Berlin, Germany
Editorial Board
P. Borne, ~ c o l ede Lille, France G. Carmichael, University of Iowa, USA
L. Dekker, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands A. Iserles, University
of Cambridge, UK A. Jakeman, Australian National University, Australia
G. Korn, Industrial Consultants (Tucson), USA G.P. Rao, Indian Institute of
Technology, India R. Rice, Purdue University, USA A.A. Samarskii, Russian
Academy of Science, Russia Y. Takahara, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan

The Numerical Insights series aims to show how numerical simulations provide valuable
insights into the mechanisms and processes involved in a wide range of disciplines. Such
simulations provide a way of assessing theories by comparing simulations with observa-
tions. These models are also powerful tools which serve to indicate where both theory and
experiment can be improved.
In most cases the books will be accompanied by software on disk demonstrating working
examples of the simulations described in the text.
The editors will welcome proposals using modelling, simulation and systems analysis
techniques in the following disciplines: physical sciences; engineering; environment; ecol-
ogy; biosciences; economics.

Volume 1
Numerical Insights into Dynamic Systems: Interactive Dynamic System Simulation with
Microsofto, Windows 95TMand NTTM
Granino A. Korn

Volume 2
Modelling, Simulation and Control of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems: An Intelligent
Approach using Soft Computing and Fractal Theory
Patricia Melin and Oscar Castillo

This book is part of a series. The publisher will accept continuation orders which may be cancelled
at any time and which provide for automatic billing and shipping of each title in the series upon
publication. Please write for details.

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

Modelling, Simulation and Control
of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems

An Intelligent Approach Using Soft Computing

and Fractal Theory

Patricia Melin and Oscar Castillo

Tijuana Institute of Technology, Tijuana, Mexico

Taylor & Francis

Taylor&Francis Group

Boca Raton London NewYork Singapore

A CRC title, part of the Taylor & Francis imprint, a member of the
Taylor & Francis Croup, the academic division of T&F lnforrna plc.

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 First published 2002 by Taylor & Francis
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Taylor & Francis Inc,
29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001
Taylor & Francis is an inzprint of the Taylor & Francis Group
O 2002 Taylor & Francis
This book has been produced from camera-ready copy supplied by the authors
Printed and bound in Great Britain by
TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in
any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter
invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Every effort has been made to ensure that the advice and information in this book is true
and accurate at the time of going to press. However, neither the publisher nor the authors
can accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be
made. In the case of drug administration, any medical procedure or the use of technical
equipment mentioned within this book, you are strongly advised to consult the
manufacturer's guidelines.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested

ISBN 0-415-27236-X

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 CONTENTS

PREFACE ix

1 INTRODUCTION TO MODELLING, SIMULATION AND CONTROL

OF NON-LINEAR DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS 1
1.1 Modelling and Simulation of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems 2
1.2 Control of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems 5

2 FUZZY LOGIC FOR MODELLING

2.1 Fuzzy Set Theory
2.2 Fuzzy Reasoning
2.3 Fuzzy Inference Systems
2.4 Fuzzy Modelling
2.5 Summary

3 NEURAL NETWORKS FOR CONTROL

3.1 Backpropagation for Feedforward Networks
3.1.1 The backpropagation learning algorithm
3.1.2 Backpropagation multilayer perceptrons
3.2 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems
3.2.1 ANFIS architecture
3.2.2 Learning algorithm
3.3 Neuro-Fuzzy Control
3.3.1 Inverse learning
3.3.2 Specialized learning
3.4 Adaptive Model-Based Neuro-Control
3.4.1 Indirect neuro-control
3.4.2 Direct neuro-control
3.4.3 Parameterized neuro-control
3.5 Summary

4 GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND FRACTAL THEORY FOR

MODELLING AND SIMULATION 65
4.1 Genetic Algorithms 67
4.2 Simulated Annealing 72
4.3 Basic Concepts of Fractal Theory 75
4.4 Summary 80

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 vi CONTENTS

5 FUZZY-FRACTAL APPROACH FOR AUTOMATED

MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
5.1 The Problem of Automated Mathematical Modelling
5.2 A Fuzzy-Fractal Method for Automated Modelling
5.3 Implementation of the Method for Automated Modelling
5.3.1 Description of the time series analysis module
5.3.2 Description of the expert selection module
5.3.3 Description of the best model selection module
5.4 Comparison with Related Work
5.5 Summary

6 FUZZY-GENETIC APPROACH FOR AUTOMATED SIMULATION

6.1 The Problem of Automated Simulation
6.1.1 Numerical simulation of dynamical systems
6.1.2 Behavior identification for dynamical systems
6.1.3 Automated simulation of dynamical systems
6.2 Method for Automated Parameter Selection using Genetic Algorithms
6.3 Method for Dynamic Behavior Identification using Fuzzy Logic
6.3.1 Behavior identification based on the analytical properties of
the model
6.3.2 Behavior identification based on the fractal dimension and the
Lyapunov exponents
6.4 Summary

7 NEURO-FUZZY APPROACH FOR ADAPTIVE MODEL-BASED

CONTROL
7.1 Modelling the Process of the Plant
7.2 Neural Networks for Control
7.3 Fuzzy Logic for Model Selection
7.4 Neuro-Fuzzy Adaptive Model-Based Control
7.5 Summary

8. ADVANCED APPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATED MATHEMATICAL

MODELLING AND SIMULATION
8.1 Modelling and Simulation of Robotic Dynamic Systems
8.1.1 Mathematical modelling of robotic systems
8.1.2 Automated mathematical modelling of robotic dynamic systems
8.1.3 Automated simulation of robotic dynamic systems
8.2 Modelling and Simulation of Biochemical Reactors
8.2.1 Modelling biochemical reactors in the food industry
8.2.2 Automated mathematical modelling of biochemical reactors
8.2.3 Simulation results for biochemical reactors
8.3 Modelling and Simulation of International Trade Dynamics
8.3.1 Mathematical modelling of international trade
8.3.2 Simulation results of international trade

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 CONTENTS vii

8.4 Modelling and Simulation of Aircraft Dynamic Systems 165

8.4.1 Mathematical modelling of aircraft systems 165
8.4.2 Simulation results of aircraft systems 167
8.5 Concluding Remarks and Future Directions 174

9 ADVANCED APPLICATIONS OF ADAPTIVE MODEL-BASED

CONTROL 175
9.1 Intelligent Control of Robotic Dynamic Systems 175
9.1.1 Traditional model-based adaptive control of robotic systems 177
9.1.2 Adaptive model-based control of robotic systems with a
neuro-fuzzy approach 177
9.2 Intelligent Control of Biochemical Reactors 184
9.2.1 Fuzzy rule base for model 'selection 184
9.2.2 Neural networks for identification and control 190
9.2.3 Intelligent adaptive model-based control for biochemical reactors 192
9.3 Intelligent Control of International Trade 202
9.3.1 Adaptive model-based control of international trade 202
9.3.2 Simulation results for control of international trade 204
9.4 Intelligent Control of Aircraft Dynamic Systems 208
9.4.1 Adaptive model-based control of aircraft systems 208
9.4.2 Simulation results for control of aircraft systems 210
9.5 Concluding Remarks and Future Directions 213

References 215

APPENDIX A PROTOTYPE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS FOR

AUTOMATED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING 225
A.l Automated Mathematical Modelling of Dynamical Systems 225
A.2 Automated Mathematical Modelling of Robotic Dynamic
Systems 229

APPENDIX B PROTOTYPE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS FOR

AUTOMATED SIMULATION 235
B.l Automated Simulation of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems 235
B.2 Numerical Simulation of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems 239

APPENDIX C PROTOTYPE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS FOR

ADAPTIVE MODEL-BASED CONTROL 242
C. 1 Fuzzy Logic Model Selection 242
C.2 Neural Networks for Identification and Control 245

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 PREFACE

This book presents a unified view of mathematical modelling, simulation and control for
complex non-linear dynamical systems using soft computing techniques and fractal theory.
Our particular point of view is that modelling, simulation and control are problems that can
not be considered apart because they are intrinsically related in real-world applications.
Control of non-linear dynamical systems can not be achieved if we don't have proper
mathematical models for the systems. Also, useful simulations of a model, that can give us
numerical insights into the behavior of a dynamical system, can not be obtained if we don't
have the appropriate mathematical model. On the other hand, we have to recognize that
complex non-linear dynamical systems can exhibit a wide range of dynamic behaviors
(ranging from simple periodic orbits to chaotic strange attractors), so the problem of behavior
identification is a very diffcult one. Also, we want to automate each of these tasks (mod-
elling, simulation and control) because in this way it is easier to solve a particular problem.
We then have three difficult tasks at hand: automated mathematical modelling of a dynami-
cal system, automated simulation of the model, and model-based control of the system. A
real world problem may require that we use modelling, simulation and control, to achieve
the desired level of performance needed for the particular application.
Soft computing consists of several computing paradigms, including fuzzy logic, neural
networks and genetic algorithms, which can be used to produce powerful hybrid intelligent
systems. We believe that solving the difficult problems of modelling, simulation and control
of non-linear dynamical systems require the use of several soft computing techniques to
achieve the level of intelligence needed to automate the processes of modelling and simula-
tion, and also to achieve adaptive control. On the other hand, fractal theory provides us with
powerful mathematical tools that can be used to understand the geometrical complexity of
natural or computational objects. We believe that, in many cases, it is necessary to use fractal
tools to understand the geometry of the problem at hand. For example, the fractal dimension
is a useful tool in measuring the geometrical complexity of a time series and for this reason
can be used to formulate the corresponding mathematical model for the particular problem.
This book is intended to be a major reference for scientists and engineers interested in
applying new computational and mathematical tools for solving the complicated problems
of mathematical modelling, simulation and control of non-linear dynamical systems. The
book can also be used at the graduate or advanced undergraduate level, as a textbook or
major reference, for courses like: mathematical modelling, numerical simulation, non-
linear control of dynamical systems, applied artificial intelligence and many others. We
consider that this book can also be used to get new ideas for new lines of research or to
continue the lines of future research proposed by the authors of the book. The software
accompanying this book provides a good basis for developing more advanced 'intelligent'
software tools for modelling, simulation and control of non-linear dynamical systems.

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 In Chapter 1, we begin by giving a brief introduction to the problems of modelling,
simulation and control of non-linear dynamical systems. We motivate the importance of
solving these problems, in an automated fashion, for real-world applications. We also
outline the importance of using soft computing techniques and fractal theory to really
achieve automated mathematical modelling and simulation, and model-based adaptive control
of non-linear dynamical systems.
We present in Chapter 2 the main ideas underlying fuzzy logic and the application of this
powerful computational theory to the problem of modelling. We discuss in some detail
fuzzy set theory, fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy inference systems. At the end, we also give
some remarks about fuzzy modelling. The importance of fuzzy logic as a basis for devel-
oping intelligent systems (sometimes in conjunction with other soft computing techniques)
for control has been recognized in many areas of application. For this reason, we consider
reading this chapter essential to understand the new methods for modelling, simulation and
control presented in later chapters.
We present in Chapter 3 the basic concepts, notation and basic learning algorithms for
neural networks. We discuss in some detail feedforward networks, adaptive neuro-fuzzy
inference systems, neuro-fuzzy control and adaptive neuro-control. First, we give a brief
review of the basic concepts of neural networks and the backpropagation learning algo-
rithm. We then give a brief description of adaptive neuro-fuzzy systems. Finally, we end the
chapter with a brief review on the current methods for neuro-fuzzy control and some
remarks about adaptive control and model-based control. We can not emphasize enough the
importance of neural networks as a computational tool to achieve 'intelligence' for software
systems. For this reason, neural networks have been applied for solving complex problems
of modelling, control and identification.
We present in Chapter 4 the basic concepts and notation of genetic algorithms, simulated
annealing and fractal theory. Both genetic algorithms and simulated annealing are basic
search methodologies that can be used for modelling and simulation of complex non-linear
dynamical systems. Since both techniques can be considered as general purpose optimiza-
tion methodologies, we can use them to find the mathematical model which minimizes the
fitting errors for a specific problem. We also present in this chapter the basic concepts of
dynamical systems and fractal theory, which are two powerful mathematical theories that
enable the understanding of complex non-linear phenomena. Dynamical systems theory
gives us the general framework for treating non-linear systems and enables the identifica-
tion of the different dynamical behaviors that can occur for a particular dynamical system.
On the other hand, fractal theory gives us powerful concepts and techniques that can be
used to measure the complexity of geometrical objects.
We present in Chapter 5 our new method for automated mathematical modelling of non-
linear dynamical systems. This method is based on a hybrid fuzzy-fractal approach to
achieve, in an efficient way, automated modelling for a particular problem using a time
series as a data set. The use of the fractal dimension is to perform time series analysis of
the data, so as to obtain a qualitative characterization of the time series. The use of fuzzy
logic techniques is to simulate the process of expert model selection using the qualitative
information obtained from the time series analysis module. At the end, the 'best' math-
ematical model is obtained by comparing the measures of goodness for the selected math-
ematical models. In Chapter 8, we show some advanced applications of this method for
automated mathematical modelling.

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 PREFACE xi

In Chapter 6, we describe the problem of numerical simulation for non-linear dynamical

systems and its solution by using intelligent methodologies. The numerical simulation of
a particular dynamical system consists in the successive application of a map and the
subsequent identification of the corresponding dynamic behaviors. Automated simulation
of a given dynamical system consists in selecting the appropriate parameter values for the
model and then applying the corresponding iterative method (map) to find the limiting
behavior. In this chapter, a new method for automated parameter selection, based on genetic
algorithms, is introduced. Also, a new method for dynamic behavior identification, based
on fuzzy logic, is introduced. The fuzzy-genetic approach for automated simulation con-
sists in the integration of the method for automated parameter selection and the method for
behavior identification.
We describe in Chapter 7 our new method for adaptive model-based control of non-
linear dynamical systems. This method is based on a hybrid neuro-fuzzy approach to achieve,
in an efficient way, adaptive robust control of non-linear dynamical systems using a set of
different mathematical models. We use fuzzy logic to select the appropriate mathematical
model for the dynamical system according to the changing conditions of the system. Adap-
tive control is achieved by using a neural network for control and a neural network for
identification. Combining this method for control with the procedure for fuzzy model
selection, gives us a new method for adaptive model-based control using a hybrid neuro-
fuzzy approach. This method for adaptive control can be used for general dynamical
systems or non-linear plants, since its architecture is domain independent. In Chapter 9, we
show some advanced applications of this new method for adaptive model-based control.
In Chapter 8, we present several advanced applications of the new methods for auto-
mated mathematical modelling and simulation. First, we describe the application of the
new methods for automated modelling and simulation to robotic dynamic systems, which
is a very important application in the control of real-world robot arms and general robotic
systems. Second, we apply our new methods for modelling and simulation to the problem
of understanding the dynamic behavior of biochemical reactors in the food industry, which
is also very important for the control of this type of dynamical system. Third, we consider
the problem of modelling and simulation of international trade dynamics, which is an
interesting problem in economics and finance. Finally, we also consider the problem of
modelling and simulation of aircraft, as this is important for the real-world problem of
automatic aircraft control.
In Chapter 9, we present several advanced applications of the new method for adaptive
model-based control. First, we describe the application of the new method for adaptive
model-based control to the case of robotic dynamic systems, which is very important for
solving the problem of controlling real-world manipulators in real-time. Second, we
describe the application of the method for adaptive model-based control to the case of
biochemical reactors in the food industry, which is a very interesting case due to the
complexity of this non-linear problem. Third, we consider briefly the problem of control-
ling international trade between three or more countries, with our new method for adaptive
model-based control. Finally, we also consider briefly the problem of controlling aircraft
with our new method for adaptive model-based control.
Finally, we would like to thank all the people who helped make this book possible. In
particular, we would like to acknowledge our families for their love and support during the
realization of this project; without them this book would never have been possible.

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

Chapter 1

Introduction to Modelling, Simulation and Control of

Non-Linear Dynamical Systems

We describe in this book new methods for automated modelling and simulation of
non-linear dynamical systems using Soft Computing techniques and Fractal
Theory. We also describe a new method for adaptive model-based control of non-
linear dynamical systems using a hybrid neuro-hzzy-fractal approach. Soft
Computing (SC) consists of several computing paradigms, including fuzzy logic,
neural networks and genetic algorithms, which can be used to produce powerful
hybrid intelligent systems. Fractal Theory (FT) provides us with the mathematical
tools (like the fractal dimension) to understand the geometrical complexity of
natural objects and can be used for identification and modelling purposes.
Combining SC techniques with FT tools we can take advantage of the
"intelligence" provided by the computer methods (like neural networks) and also
take advantage of the descriptive power of fractal mathematical tools. Non-linear
dynamical systems can exhibit extremely complex dynamic behavior and for this
reason it is of great importance to develop intelligent computational tools that will
enable the identification of the best model for a particular dynamical system, then
obtaining the best simulations for the system and also achieving the goal of
controlling the dynamical system in a desired manner. We also describe in this

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 2 INTRODUCTION

book the basic methodology to develop prototype intelligent systems that are able
to find the best model for a particular dynamical system, then perform the
numerical simulations necessary to identify all of the possible dynamical
behaviors of the system, and finally achieve the goal of adaptive control using the
mathematical models of the system and SC techniques.
As a prelude, we shall provide a brief overview of the existing
methodologies for modelling, simulation and control of non-linear dynamical
systems and also of our own approach in dealing with these problems.

1.1 Modelling and Simulation of Non-Linear Dynamical

Systems

Traditionally, mathematical modelling of dynarnical systems has been performed

by human experts in the following manner (Jamshidi, 1997): 1) The expert
according to his knowledge selects a set of models consider to be appropriate for a
specific given problem, 2) Parameter estimation of the models is performed with
methods similar to least-squares (using the relevant data available), and 3) The
"best" model is selected using the measures of goodness for each of the models.
Also, we can say that linear statistical models have been traditionally used as an
approximation of real dynamic systems, which is not the best thing to do since
many of the mechanical, electrical, biological and chemical systems are
intrinsically non-linear in nature. In this work, we achieved automated
mathematical modelling by using different Soft Computing techniques (Jang, Sun
& Mizutani, 1997). The whole process of modelling starts with a time series (data
set), which is used to perform a "Time Series Analysis" to extract the components
of the time series (Weigend & Gershenfeld, 1994). Time series analysis can be
achieved by traditional statistical methods or by efficient classification methods
based on SC techniques, like neural networks or fuzzy logic (Kosko, 1997). In our
case, we used fuzzy logic for classification of the time series components. After
this time series analysis is performed, the qualitative values of the time series
components are used to obtain a set of admissible models for a specific problem,
this part of the problem was solved by using a set of fuzzy rules (knowledge base)

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 MODELLING, SIMULATION AND CONTROL ... 3

that simulates the human experts in the domain of application. Finally, the "best"
model is selected by comparing the measures of goodness for each of the
admissible models considered in the previous step.
The simulation of mathematical models traditionally has been performed
by exploring the possible dynamic behaviors, for a specific system, for different
parameter values of the model (Rasband, 1990). More recently, it has been
proposed to use Artificial Intelligence (Russell & Norvig, 1995) techniques for the
simulation of mathematical models (for example, by using expert systems
(Badiru, 1992)). In this work, we used SC techniques to automate the simulation
of dynamical systems. In particular, we make use of genetic algorithms to generate
the "best" set of parameter values for a specific model with respect to the goal of
obtaining the most efficient simulation possible. Genetic Algorithms (GA)
essentially consist of methods for the optimization of a general function based on
the concept of "evolution" (Goldberg, 1989). In our particular case, the problem
consisted in specifying the appropriate function to be optimized, with the goal of
achieving the most efficient simulation possible, i.e., a simulation that enables the
identification of all the possible dynamic behaviors for a specific dynamical
system. For the identification of dynamic behaviors we make use of a fuzzy rule
base that will identifl a particular behavior according to the results of the
numerical simulations.
In general, the study of non-linear dynamical systems is very important
because most of the physical, electrical, mechanical and biochemical systems can
be mathematically represented by models (differential or difference equations) in
the time domain. Also, it is well known in Dynamical Systems Theory (Devaney,
1989) that the dynamic behavior of a particular system can range from very simple
periodic orbits to the very complicated "chaotic" orbits. Non-linear models may
exhibit the chaotic behavior for systems of at least three coupled differential
equations or at least one difference equation (Ruelle, 1990). In particular, for the
case of real-world dynamical systems the mathematical models needed are of very
high dimensionality and in general there is a high probability of chaotic behavior,
along with all sorts of different periodic and quasi-periodic behaviors (Castillo &
Melin, 1998b). For this reason, it becomes very important to be able to obtain the
appropriate mathematical models for the dynamical systems and then to be able to

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 4 INTRODUCTION

perform numerical simulations of these models (Castillo & Melin, 1997b), since
this enables forecasting system's performance in future time. In this way,
automated mathematical modelling and simulation of dynamical systems can
contribute to real-time control of these systems, and this is critical in real-world
applications (Melin & Castillo, 1998b). Also, an intelligent system for modelling
and simulation can be useful in the design of real dynamical systems with certain
constraints, since the information obtained by the numerical simulations can be
used as a feedback in the process of design. The main contribution of the research
work presented in this book is to combine several Soft Computing techniques to
achieve automated mathematical modelling and simulation of non-linear
dynamical systems using the advantages that each specific technique offers. For
example, fuzzy logic (Von Altrock, 1995) was used to simulate the reasoning
process of human experts in the process of mathematical modelling and genetic
algorithms was used to select the best set of parameter values for the simulation of
the best model.
The importance of the results presented in this book can be measured from
the scientific point of view and also from the practical (or applications) point of
view. First, from the scientific point of view, we consider that this research work
is very important because the computer methods for automated mathematical
modelling and simulation of dynamic systems that were developed contribute, in
general, to the advancement of Computer Science, and, in particular, to the
advancement of Soft Computing and Artificial Intelligence because the new
algorithms that were developed can be considered "intelligent" in the sense that
they simulate human experts in modelling and simulation. From the practical
point of view, we consider the results of this research work very important for the
areas of Control and Design of dynamical systems. Controlling dynamical systems
can be made more easy if we are able to analyze and predict the dynamic
evolution of these systems and this goal can be achieved with an intelligent
system for automated mathematical modelling and simulation. The design of
dynamical systems can be made more easy if we can use mathematical models and
their simulations for planning the performance of these systems under different set
of design constraints. This last two points are of great importance for the
industrial applications, since the control of dynamical systems in real-world plants

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

 MODELLPJG, SIMULATION AND CONTROL ...

has to be very precise and also the design of this type of systems for specific tasks
can be very useful for industry.

1.2 Control of Non-Linear Dynamical Systems

Traditional control of non-linear dynamical systems has been done by using

Classical Linear Control Theory and assuming simple linear mathematical models
for the systems. However, it is now well known that non-linear dynamical systems
can exhibit complex behavior (and as a consequence are difficult to control) and
the most appropriate mathematical models for them are the non-linear ones. Since
the complexity of mathematical models for real dynarnical systems is very high it
becomes necessary to use more advanced control techniques. This is precisely the
fact that motivated researchers in the area of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to apply
techniques that mimic human experts in the domain of dynarnical systems control.
More recently, techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic have been applied
with some success to the control of non-linear dynamical systems for several
domains of application. However, there also has been some limitations and
problems with these approaches when applied to real systems. For this reason, we
proposed in this book the application of a hybrid approach for the problem of
control, combining neural and fuzzy technologies with the knowledge of the
mathematical models for the adaptive control of dynamical systems. The basic
idea of this hybrid approach is to combine the advantages of the computer
methods with the advantages of using mathematical models for the dynamical
systems. In this work, new methods were developed for adaptive control of non-
linear systems using a combination of neural networks, fuzzy logic and
mathematical models. Neural networks were used for the identification and
control of the dynamical system and fuzzy logic was used to enable the change of
mathematical models according to the dynamic state of the system. Also, the
information and knowledge contained in the mathematical models was used for
the control of the system by using their numerical results as input of the neural
networks.

© 2002 Taylor & Francis

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 “Why do you say ‘suppose’?” asked Lord Southwick sharply.
“Well, if you want to know, because of certain fancies that have
come into my head. Now tell me, have you heard anything?”
“Yes, I have, and I was going to speak to you on the matter. Some
queer things have come to my knowledge lately. First of all, we have
found out that all that yarn with which Dick Learmer stuffed up my
late chief is nonsense, for that Egyptian sergeant, Abdullah, was
mortally wounded a few months ago, and before he died made a
confession that he had told lies, and that he ran away at the very
beginning of the fight between Ullershaw and those Arab rascals.
So, of course, he didn’t see him killed as he said he did.”
“Oh! But what yarn of Learmer’s do you mean?”
“Why, that Ullershaw had taken up with some pretty native woman
and was travelling with her. Learmer gave us to understand that he
had private confirmation of the fact, and, perhaps foolishly, we
believed him, and that’s what made my old chief so wild with your
cousin. Now it appears from Abdullah’s statement, which has just
been forwarded home, as they say out there, ‘to clear the shadow
that has fallen upon the reputation of a very gallant officer,’ all that
Ullershaw did was to give escort to two helpless females across the
desert, partly from charity and partly because he thought that their
presence would make his caravan look more like a trading
expedition.”
“I see,” said Lord Devene; but to himself he added: “Dick again!
What a cowardly, black-hearted scoundrel! Well, is there any more?”
“Yes. You may remember it was stated in Parliament that this
abortive expedition had cost the authorities about £2,000. Well,
within the last year, £2,000 have been paid into the Treasury from a
source that we cannot trace, accompanied by a rather involved
written message to this effect: ‘That the money was to be applied to
reimburse the costs incurred in the diplomatic mission to certain
chiefs on the borders of the Soudan, in the fitting out and providing
with funds of the expedition under the command of Lieutenant-
Colonel Rupert Ullershaw, C.B., by a person who desires to clear
away the reproach that had been laid upon him of having been the
cause of a waste of public money.’ Now did you, or his widow, do
this?”
“Most certainly not!” answered Lord Devene, with a touch of his
old sarcasm. “Are either of us people likely to repay to Government
money to which they have no legal claim? How did the cash come?”
“Through a bank that would only say that it had been received
from its branch in Egypt. Further, reports have reached us that the
Tama oasis, which no one has visited for generations, is now virtually
ruled by a white man who is said to have been a British officer,
although its real chief is a woman. This woman, who is called the
lady Mea, or after her territory, Tama simply, has recently put herself
in communication with the Egyptian Government, demanding to be
accorded its protection, and offering to pay taxes, etc. The style of
the letter made it certain that it was never written by an Arab woman,
so a political officer was sent to see into the matter. He got to the
oasis, and found that it is a perfect garden, and very rich, having of
late established an enormous trade in dates, salt, horses, etc., with
the surrounding tribes. Of the white man, however, he saw nothing,
his questions on the point being politely ignored. Still he did hear by
side winds that such a person exists. That is all I can tell you about
the thing, but it might be worth your while to follow it up. I hope you
will indeed, and still more, that Ullershaw may prove to be alive. In
my opinion, he has been a cruelly-treated man, and it is just possible
that a fellow of his character, knowing this and not caring to defend
himself, has chosen to remain lost.”
“Thank you, I will,” said Lord Devene, and going home he wrote a
note to Edith telling her to come to see him.
 CHAPTER XX.
REVELATIONS
As it happened, Edith had just left London for a week to stay with
friends in Cornwall, and therefore could not obey Lord Devene’s
summons till after her return. When at length she did arrive, she was
shocked at the change in his appearance.
“You think that I look ill?” he said, reading her mind.
“Yes, I must say that I do, Cousin George,” she answered, as she
contemplated his snow-white hair, shrunken figure, and thin face
worn with sorrow and weariness.
“Well, you see, I am no longer young. Threescore and ten are the
full years of man, and I have just completed them. But that’s not the
worst of it; the old sleeplessness is back upon me with a vengeance.
I have scarcely closed my eyes for six nights. This last job, the loss
of my poor boy, has finished me, and now I don’t care how quickly I
follow him into the dark; the sooner the better, I think; yes, the
sooner the better.”
“Don’t say that,” said Edith gently. “I hope that you have a good
many years before you.”
“No, no, nor months, nor perhaps weeks,” he added slowly. “My
treadmill is nearly finished, the accursed wheel is going to stop. But,”
he went on swiftly, as though to prevent her answering him, “I have
sent for you to talk about your affairs, not mine. Why will you not
marry Dick Learmer?”
“Do you consider him a desirable man for a woman to marry,
Cousin George?”
 “No, I don’t. He has gone all to bits of late, and he doesn’t exactly
give off an odour of sanctity, does he? In fact, if you ask me my
private opinion as his relative, who has had the honour of supporting
him more or less for many years, I should say that he was about as
big a blackguard as you could find in London, and I have always
wondered how you could care twopence about him.”
“And yet you suggest that I should marry him.”
“Well, you know he is going to be a rich man, and you might as
well have your share. But I understand that you won’t.”
“No,” said Edith decidedly, “I won’t. He did fascinate me rather
once, but I have got over that, and now I dislike him. It is curious how
we change in these matters—only I wish I had seen the truth earlier.”
“Yes, so do I. If you had, perhaps you would have gone to Egypt
when you thought fit to stay at home. Well, if you won’t commit
bigamy, which I admit is an awkward thing to do, why not make it up
with Rupert?”
Edith gasped and sank back in her chair.
“How do you—I mean, what do you know?” she exclaimed. “Has
Dick told you?”
“Ho!” said this wise old man, drawing his white eyebrows together,
“so Master Dick has a finger in this pie too, has he? He has not only
murdered Rupert; he has buried him also.”
“Murdered!”
“What else do you call it when he got him sent off to Egypt on his
wedding day upon a particularly dangerous mission, and when, on
the failure of that mission and his reported death, he even took the
opportunity to poison the minds of his chiefs and so blacken his
memory.”
“So he really did those things?” remarked Edith reflectively.
“Certainly; I will give you chapter and verse for it if you like. But
about Rupert.” He paused, and drew a bow at a venture. “What
happened when you saw him?”
“So Dick has told you,” she said. “Well, if he will lie about one
thing, he will lie about another. But why force me to repeat the
story?”
“Because I should like to hear it first-hand. What happened, and
when?”
“Over seven years ago,” answered Edith hoarsely, “Rupert came
back, on New Year’s Eve, a Sunday, after Dick had been to lunch.
He was dressed in horrible rough clothes, and his hair was long and
tangled like that of a wild man. His foot had been cut off, and his left
eye put out by those savages there in the Soudan. They tortured him
because he would not become a Mahommedan.”
“Ah!” said Lord Devene, “personally I think that the Mahommedan
religion has points, but—plucky fellow, Rupert; it might have
recommended him to some women. Well?”
“Well, he was horrible to me. As a friend I could scarcely have
borne him, but as a husband—oh! you know.”
“I think you said that Dick had been to luncheon, did you not?
Now, had he perhaps suggested himself as what on a Board of
Directors is called an alternative?”
“He had asked me to marry him,” replied Edith, dropping her head.
“With the usual concomitants, I suppose, and perhaps had not
been too roughly rebuffed. He was better-looking then, wasn’t he?
Well, under the circumstances, no doubt, a mere martyr in badly
fitting clothes, and without a foot, would have seemed horrible to any
refined young woman. Husbands often assume that appearance to
wives who chance to have followed their finer instincts, and fallen in
love with somebody else. But what became of our martyr? Is he now
preaching Christianity among the benighted Mahommedans?”
“You are cruel to me,” said Edith, with something like a sob.
“Then learn patience from the example of the martyr, who seems
to have suffered much without complaining, for conscience’ sake—
like you, dear Edith, and—answer the question.”
“I told him,” she said, in a low voice, “that as he was dead, he had
better remain dead. He went away; I don’t know what became of
him, or whether he is alive or not.”
“Then allow me to reassure your anxious heart upon that point. To
the best of my belief, unless I am very much mistaken, the admirable
Rupert is at present living in an oasis called Tama, somewhere in the
desert, not far from the Soudan; I don’t know the exact locality, but
doubtless it can easily be ascertained. Moreover, he has prospered
better than most martyrs do, for with characteristic folly, he has paid
back £2,000, which he did not owe, to the Government, in some
particularly stupid and roundabout fashion. By the way, you never
claimed his insurance, did you? No. Well, that’s lucky, for you might
have been prosecuted. To return—in this happy oasis, as I believe,
Rupert lives at ease, assisting its fair ruler to govern some primitive
community, who apparently grow dates and manufacture salt for his
and her benefit, for he seems to have relaxed his iron principles
sufficiently to allow himself to contract a morganatic marriage, of
which, under the circumstances, you will be the last to complain.”
“I don’t believe it,” said Edith, with some energy. “It’s not like
Rupert to break his word.”
“It would be like a born idiot if he didn’t. Why should you have a
monopoly in that respect?” Lord Devene answered, with withering
sarcasm. “But perhaps the best thing to do would be to go and find
out. Look here, Edith,” he said, dropping his bitter, bantering tone, “I
have never set up for virtue; I hate the name of it as it is commonly
used, but I must tell you that I think you an exceedingly wicked
woman. What business have you to treat the man whom you had
married in this way, just because you had been philandering with that
accursed Dick, and because he had lost his leg and his prospects of
a title? Well, his leg won’t grow again, but the title is sprouting finely.
Hadn’t you better make haste and secure it? Lady Devene sounds
better than Mrs. Ullershaw, relict of a forgotten colonel in the
Egyptian army. Also, perhaps you would be happier as the wife of an
honourable man than as the friend of Dick Learmer.”
“I’m not his friend,” replied Edith indignantly, “—now after what you
have told me, for it was base to try to blacken the reputation of a
dead man. Also, I don’t like him at all; his ways of life and even his
appearance disgust me.”
“I am glad to hear it,” said Lord Devene.
“As for your reproaches about poor Rupert,” she went on, “you find
it convenient to forget that it was you who forced me into that
marriage. I never pretended to be in love with him, although it is true
that now, when I am older, I see things in a different light, and have
more regard for him than ever I had before.”
“Now, when you have escaped from the blighting shadow of the
other man’s influence, you mean, Edith. But, whatever the reason,
better late than not at all. You blame me for having, by a gift of
£25,000, etc., ‘forced’ you into the marriage. Well, would you like to
know why I did so?”
“Yes; I should very much.”
“Then I see no reason why I should not tell you—now. It was
because you happen to be my daughter, Edith.”
She gasped again, then said: “Is that the truth, or one of your bad
jokes?”
“The truth. I would rather not enter on the subject with you, but you
can have your mother’s statement to read afterwards, if you like, and
I don’t know that the fact need distress you.”
“It distresses me very much,” answered Edith bitterly. “Hitherto I
always thought that my mother was honest, and that my father was a
good if a foolish man. Now those illusions have gone, like the rest,
and now, too, I understand where all that is bad in me came from,
and that my odd dislike of Rupert was inherited—for I have heard
that story from Dick.”
Even the hardened Lord Devene winced a little beneath these
bitter shafts.
“It would seem, my dear Edith,” he said, “that your powers of
offensive speech are at least your own, since mine, which some
people think considerable, are put to the blush by them.”
“I pay you back in your own coin, that is all. For an hour you have
sat there mocking and insulting me, tearing me to pieces and
stamping on me, ending up with the information that I am—what I
am. Do you wonder, then, that I retaliate? Cousin—I beg your
pardon, but how do you wish me to address you in future? Well,” she
went on, without waiting for an answer, “I am glad that Rupert knew
nothing about it, for at any rate, as I think you once said, he was the
only respectable man in the family, and he might have felt aggrieved
under all the circumstances.”
“It is highly probable that he did. Do you remember a letter which
the footman gave to him at the train when he was starting for Egypt
after your marriage? Yes? Well, that letter informed him of our exact
relationship, leaving it optional with him to pass on the facts to you,
or not, as he liked.”
“He never said a word,” exclaimed Edith. “No, not even in that
scene when we parted, and he might so easily have used what he
knew to hurt me. Oh! he is different to us all—he is different.”
“Quite so, and that is why I wished you to marry him. Also, then as
now he was going to get the title and the property, and, unnatural
creature though you think me to be, I had, as it happened, a wish
that you should share those temporalities. Indeed I have it still, and
that is why I desire and implore that you should make it up with
Rupert if he is still living. Listen, Edith!” he went on earnestly, “you
are still a beautiful and admired woman, but you are now well past
your youth, and soon the admirers will fall away and you haven’t
many real friends, and can’t marry anyone else to protect and look
after you. So I suggest that for your own sake you should take refuge
with a husband in whom you yourself admit that there is much to
esteem. Edith, my days are almost done; it is very probable that I
shall have no further opportunity of talking to you upon this or any
other subject. I urge you therefore as one who, being responsible for
your presence in the world, has your welfare most earnestly at heart,
to promise me that you will make inquiries, and if you find that
Rupert is living, as I believe, that you will go to him, for he will
certainly not come to you, and ask his pardon for the past. Will you
do it?”
“I—think so,” she answered slowly, “and yet, after all that has been
—oh! how can I? And how will he receive me?”
“I am not sure,” answered Lord Devene. “Were I in his place, I
know how I should receive you,” he added, with a grim little laugh,
“but Rupert is a forbearing creature. The trouble is that he may have
formed other ties. All I can suggest is that you should be patient and
try to work upon his feelings and sense of duty. Now I have said all I
can, and shall say no more who have other things to think of. You
have made your own bed, Edith, and if you can’t re-make it, you
must lie on it as it is, that’s all. Good-bye.”
She rose and held out her hand.
“Before you go,” he said, with a nervous little clearing of the throat,
—“it seems weak I know, but I should like to hear you say that you
forgive me, not about the Rupert business, for there I am sure I did
the best I could for you, but for bringing you into this world at all. So
far, I admit, whoever’s the fault may be, you do not seem to have
made a great success of it, any more than I have. As you know, I am
troubled by no form of the common superstitions of our age, holding
as I do that we are the purest accidents, born like gnats from the life-
creating influences of sun and air and moisture, developed out of
matter and passing back into matter, to live again as matter, whereof
our intellect is but a manifestation, and no more. Still I cannot help
acknowledging, after many years of observation, that there does
seem to be some kind of fate which influences the affairs of men,
and at times brings retribution on them for their follies and mistakes.
If that is so, Edith, it is this fate which you should blame,” and the old
man looked at her almost appealingly.
“No,” she answered, in a cold voice. “Once I remember, when I did
not know that you were my father, I told you that I loved you—I
suppose that the kinship of our blood prompted me. Now when I
know how close that kinship is, and in what way it came about, by
the disgrace of my mother during the life-time of her husband, I love
you no more. It is not the fate that I blame, but you, you—its
instrument, who were free to choose the better part.”
“So be it,” replied Lord Devene quietly. “Apply those words to your
own life, Edith, and by them let it be judged as you have judged me.”
Then they parted.

Edith kept her promise. Going to a great lawyer, famous for his
investigations of difficult matters, she told him merely that rumours
had reached her to the effect that her husband, who for many years
had been supposed to be dead, was in reality alive in the Soudan, or
in its bordering desert, and suggested that he should put himself in
communication with Lord Southwick and the Egyptian authorities
with the object of ascertaining the truth, and if necessary send
someone out to Egypt. The lawyer made notes, said that the matter
should be followed up, and that he would keep her advised as to the
results of his inquiries. Thereupon Edith, who, after their last bitter
and tragic interview, did not wish to see anything more at present of
the man whom she must believe to be her father, left town, as indeed
it was her custom to do during the month of August, and went away
to Scotland. When she had been there nearly six weeks, she
received one morning a telegram from Lady Devene, which was
dated from Grosvenor Square and read:

Come here at once. Your Cousin George is no more. I

want your help.

Shocked by this news she managed to catch the midday train to

London. At Rugby she saw the placard of an evening paper. On it,
among other news’ headings, was printed: “Sad death of a well-
known peer.” She bought the paper, and after some search found a
short paragraph which said:

“We regret to announce that Lord Devene was found

dead in bed at his house in Grosvenor Square this
morning. The cause of his death is not yet known.”
Then followed some biographical details and these
words: “As Lord Devene lost his only son some months
ago, it is believed that the peerage becomes extinct.
The settled property, however, passes to his cousin,
Richard Learmer, Esq., M.P.”

From the station Edith drove direct to Grosvenor Square and was
received by Tabitha in the drawing-room. There she sat in her black
dress, sad-faced, calm, imposing, like an incarnation, Edith thought,
of that fate whereof her father had spoken to her at their last
interview. They embraced each other without warmth, for at heart
these two women were not friends.
 “How did it happen?” asked Edith.
“He died as her first ladyship died,” answered the widow, “by an
overdose of chloral. You know he could never sleep.”
“How did he come to take an overdose?” asked Edith again.
“I do not know,” she answered meaningly; “perhaps the doctors
they can tell you. Would you like to see him?”
“No,” said Edith, with a shudder; “I had rather not.”
“Ach!” said Lady Devene, “I forgot; you did always run away from
the sick and fear the dead; it is your nature.”
“Are you sorry?” said Edith curiously, perhaps to change the
conversation.
“Yes; for his soul which goes to its reward I am sorry, for he did not
repent before he died, who had many things of which he should
repent. For myself I am not sorry, for I have done my duty by him,
and now at last the chains do fall off my neck and God has set me
free to give me time to make my peace with Him before I die also.”
Then saying that she must get some food, Edith left her, for she
did not wish to pursue this painful conversation.
If the doctors of whom Lady Devene had spoken suspected
anything unusual, they were singularly reticent upon the point. All
they could or would say was that Lord Devene, who for many years
had been in the habit of taking chloral to combat his constitutional
sleeplessness, had on this particular night taken too much. So the
usual verdict was returned: “Death from misadventure, the cause
being an overdose of chloral,” and many comments were made on
the curious fact that Lord Devene and his first wife should have
come to a precisely similar end.
The will, which had been executed after the death of the little boy,
was found to be very short. It made no mention of the entailed
property, leaving the next heir to establish his claim, and after stating
that the testator’s wife was provided for by settlement, appointed
Edith Ullershaw residuary legatee without restrictions. This sounded
simple enough, but when matters came to be looked into it was
found that Edith took real and personal estate to the value of
£200,000. Subject to the life-interest of the widow, even the house in
Grosvenor Square was hers, so she was now a rich woman.
“Ach! my dear Edith,” said Lady Devene, when she learned that
she had a right to continue to live in the great mansion, “take it, take
it at once. I hate the place. Two thousand pounds a year, that is
plenty for me—£500 to live on, and £1,500 to give away. Yes, at last
the poor shall get some of all those monies which have been
collected out of their toil and their drink-vices.”
Needless to say, the exultant Dick swooped upon the settled
property like a famished hawk, demanding to be declared its rightful
possessor. But then arose a most unpleasant hitch, for just at this
time there came a letter to Edith from her lawyers, announcing that
they had received telegraphic advices from the agent whom they had
despatched to Egypt, informing them that it appeared to be almost
certain that the white man who was living in the oasis Tama was
none other than that Colonel Rupert Ullershaw who was supposed to
have been killed many years before. The lawyers added that, on
their own responsibility, and on behalf of her husband, whom they
believed to be alive and the present Lord Devene, they had made
representations in the proper quarter, as a result of which no one
would be allowed to touch the settled property until the matter was
thoroughly investigated.
Of course all this strange story soon found its way into the
newspapers, and many were the rapturous congratulations which
Edith received, even from persons with whom she had the very
smallest acquaintance. Meanwhile the lawyers had again been in
communication with their agent, who was established at Wady-Halfa.
A second telegram was received from this capable and enterprising
person, announcing that with great difficulty he had succeeded in
reaching the oasis, and in sending a message to Colonel Ullershaw,
informing him of his accession to the title, adding, however, that all
his lordship had replied was, that he did not want the title, and
refused to leave the place.
“It would appear,” went on their letter to Edith, covering this cable,
“that his lordship has suffered somewhat mentally from long
confinement among these savages, who, we are informed, have cut
off his foot to prevent his escaping, as they regard him as a god who
has brought them great prosperity which would vanish if he left them.
We presume, therefore, that your ladyship will proceed to Egypt as
soon as possible and use your personal influence to withdraw him
from his unhappy situation. We are informed that the people of the
oasis are peaceable, but, if necessary, that the authorities will give
you any assistance which may be required.”
Now the whole thing was out, and became a subject of general
conversation at a hundred dinner tables. Moreover, it was rumoured
that some years before Rupert Ullershaw had actually been seen in
London. General Sir Alfred Alltalk declared that he had met him upon
the steps of the Army and Navy Club, and a further ill-natured tale
was whispered that he had come to see his wife, who would have
nothing to do with him, because at that time he had ceased to be
heir to the peerage. This story, which Edith was not wrong in
ascribing to the indiscreet or malicious utterances of Dick, who was
furious with disappointment and thirsting for revenge, soon reached
her ears. Of course she contradicted it, but equally of course she
had now no alternative but to go to Egypt.
“Ach!” said the Dowager Lady Devene, when Edith expatiated to
her upon the hardship and dangers of the journey which she must
undertake alone—“ach! if that is all, I will come with you as a
companion. I am not afraid, and I have always wished to see the
land where Pharaoh oppressed the Israelites. We will start next
week, and in a month I hope to see my dear Rupert again—almost
as much as you do,” she added, looking at Edith sideways.
Now as this speech was made before several other people, Edith
had no choice but to acquiesce, and indeed it had come to this—she
also wished to see Rupert. Even in her somewhat flinty heart
remorse had been at work of late years; also, she had wearied of her
lonely life, and wished to put a stop to the scandals that were floating
about concerning her, which, as she foresaw, would soon culminate
in her being exposed to much annoyance from Dick. In fact, he was
already threatening to blackmail her and making unpleasant remarks
as to certain indiscreet letters that she had written to him after
Rupert’s visit to London, in which that visit and other matters
showing the extreme intimacy which existed between them were
alluded to not too obscurely. So she arranged to depart for the East,
accompanied by Lady Devene.
Before they sailed, she received a packet from the late Lord
Devene’s bankers, which, they stated by the mouth of a confidential
clerk, they had been directed to deliver to her one month after his
death, and not before. On opening it she found that it contained that
statement concerning herself made by her mother, to which Lord
Devene had alluded. Also, there were two letters from him, one
addressed to her and the other to Rupert, the latter being left open
that she might read it.
That to herself was brief, and ran:

I have given you all I can. Accept this wealth as a

make-weight to the initial wrong I did to you by
becoming your father. I was weak enough to hope that
when I revealed that fact to you, you would show some
affection towards a lonely and broken-hearted man.
You, however, took another view, irritated perhaps by
our previous somewhat acrimonious conversation. I
grieve to say that on such argumentative occasions I
have never been quite able to master my tongue, and
as you remarked, you seem to have inherited the
weakness. At least I have not cared to expose myself
to a second rebuff. I do not blame you, but it is true
that from that day forward I made up my mind to end
an existence which has become hateful to me. If its
dregs could have been sweetened by the love of one
who is, after all, my child, I should probably have been
content to endure its physical and mental miseries
whilst awaiting their natural termination. But it has
been destined otherwise, so like some of those old
Romans whom I so much admire, my day done, I go
from this hated scene out into the utter darkness
whence I came. Good-bye! May you be happier than
your father,
 D.

It was a horrible letter for a daughter to receive from the author of

her being, but fortunately it did not affect Edith so much as would
have been the case with many women. She felt that there was a
certain injustice about the thing. To begin with, her father had taken
her at her word after the incomprehensible male habit. Then she had
spoken when utterly irritated, first by his bitter gibes and sarcasms,
and secondly by being suddenly informed that she was quite another
person than she had supposed herself to be for over thirty years.
Still, now when it was too late, she felt grieved. It was generally
Edith’s lot to be grieved—too late. Yes, she was grieved, no more,
when others might have been paralysed with horror and unavailing
remorse.
Afterwards, she took out of its envelope and read the letter to
Rupert. Here it is:

DEAR DEVENE,—For I give you the name which will

be yours when you read this, if you should ever do so.

I have learned all your story, or if not all of it, at least

enough to show me how accurate was the estimate
which I formed of you long ago. Had not fortune fought
against you, you would have been a great man, if such
a creature really exists, which I doubt, since in nine
hundred and ninety-nine cases out of a thousand,
‘great’ is only a popular translation of the vulgar word
‘successful.’

I write now to express the sincere hope that if, as I

believe, you are still living, you and Edith, forgetting
your previous diversities, and many another trouble
and sorrow, will agree to live together in the
accustomed, time-hallowed fashion, and if possible
leave children behind you to carry on the race. Not that
it is worth carrying on, except, perhaps, for certain
qualities of your own, but one must make sacrifices
upon the altars of habit and sentiment. For what other
possible reason can the populations of the earth be
continued? Yet there is one—Nature—(perhaps in the
wilderness you have found out what that word means)
—commands what the good sense of her most
cultivated children condemns as entirely useless and
undesirable. Perhaps there is some ultimate object in
this, though personally I can see none. To me it
appears to be nothing more than a part of the blind
brutality of things which decrees the continuance, at
any rate for a little while, of the highly nervous,
overbred and unsatisfactory animal called Man. Well,
soon or late he will die of his own sufferings, that
increase daily as he advances in the scale of
progressive degeneracy, which he dignifies by the
name of civilisation. Then perhaps Nature (God is your
name for it) will enjoy a good laugh over the whole
affair, but as human tears will have ceased to fall, what
will that matter?

Edith will tell you of the fashion of my end; how, worn

out at length by grief—one of the worst gifts of the said
civilisation, for the savage feels little—and bodily
weakness—the worst gift of our primeval state, I have
determined to put an end to both, though this is a fact
which there is no need for you to blazon abroad.

I can see you solemnly lifting your eyes and saying:

‘Lo! a judgment. What the man drove that unfortunate
woman to has fallen back upon his own head. (Under
the circumstances “unfortunate” is the exact word that
you will use, tempered by a romantic sigh, whereas, in
fact, poor Clara was but a very ordinary and middle-
class kind of sinner, who did not even shrink from the
ruin of the boy whom she pretended to love.) How
wonderful is the retribution of Providence! The same
death, the same means of death!’
 Well, you will be quite wrong. Whether one suffers from
sleeplessness or from the fear of intolerable exposure
does not matter. One takes the most convenient
method to end it, and in this case they happen to be
identical. There is no Providence, no poetic justice
about the business, nothing but what novelists, or
rather their critics, call the ‘long arm of coincidence.’

Good-bye! I wonder what you have been doing all

these years in the Soudan. I should like to hear the
story from you; I am sure that it must be interesting.
But I am quite convinced that I shall never have the
chance. Nothing is absolutely certain except the
absolute nothingness that awaits us all.—Believe me,
my dear Devene, yours more sincerely than you may
think,

Devene.

“What an odd letter,” thought Edith, as she returned the sheets to

their envelope. “I don’t quite understand all of it, but I think that under
other circumstances my father might have been a very different man.
I wonder if we are quite responsible for what we do, or if the
circumstances are responsible? If so, who makes the
circumstances?”
 CHAPTER XXI.
ZAHED
Rupert was disturbed in his mind. No one was less superstitious.
He had advanced spiritually beyond the reach of superstition. He
had grasped the great fact still not understood by the vast majority of
human beings, that the universe and their connection with it is a
mighty mystery whereof nine hundred and ninety-nine parts out of a
thousand are still veiled to men. These are apt to believe, as Lord
Devene believed, that this thousandth part which they see bathed in
the vivid, daily sunlight is all that there is to see. They imagine that
because only one tiny angle of the great jewel catches and reflects
the light, the rest must be dark and valueless. They look upon the
point of rock showing above the ocean and forget that in its secret
depths lies hid a mountain range, an island, a continent, a world,
perhaps, whereof this topmost peak alone appears.
With Rupert, to whom such reflections were familiar, it was not so.
Yet perhaps, because he remembered that every outward
manifestation, however trivial, doubtless has its root in some hidden
reason, and that probably the thing we call coincidence does not in
truth exist, it did trouble and even alarm him when, riding one
morning with Mea down a deep cleft in Tama, he heard upon the cliff,
to the right of them, the wild and piercing music of the Wandering
Players. Looking up, he saw upon the edge of that cliff those strange
musicians, swathed as before in such a fashion that their faces were
invisible, three of them blowing on their pipes and two keeping time
with the drums, for the benefit, apparently, of the birds of the air and
the beasts of the earth, since no biped was near to them.
 He hailed them angrily from the valley, but they took not the
slightest notice, only blew more weirdly and beat the louder. He tried
to get up to them, but discovered that in order to do so he must ride
round for five miles. This he accomplished at last, only to find that
they were gone, having probably slipped down the slope of the
mountain away into their home, the desert. Indeed, it was reported to
him afterwards that some people, accompanied by two donkeys, had
been seen in the distance tramping across the sand.
“Why are you so vexed, Rupert?” asked Mea, when they
descended the cliffs again, after their fruitless search.
“I don’t know,” he answered, with a laugh, “but that music is
associated with disagreeable recollections in my mind. The first time
we heard it, you remember, was just before I lost my foot and eye,
and the next time was as I embarked upon the ship on my way to
England, an unhappy journey. What have they come for now, I
wonder?”
“I don’t know,” she answered, with her sweet smile; “but I at least
have no cause to fear them. After their first visit I saved you; after
their second you came back to me.”
“And after their third—?” asked Rupert.
“After their third I have said, I do not know; but perhaps it means
that we shall take a long journey together.”
“If that’s all, I don’t care,” he replied. “What I dread is our taking
journeys away from each other.”
“I thank you,” she answered, bowing to him gravely, “your words
are pleasant to me, and I bless those musicians who made you
speak them, as I am sure that our roads branch no more.”
So, still smiling at each other like two happy children, they rode on.
They visited the salt works which Rupert had established to the
enormous benefit of everyone in the oasis.
Passing through groves of young date-palms that he had planted,
they came to the breeding grounds of camels, mules, and horses,
the last of which had attained a great reputation, and having
inspected the studs, turned back through the irrigated lands that now
each year produced two crops instead of one.
 “You have done well for us, Rupert,” said Mea, as they headed
homewards. “Tama has not been so wealthy since the days of my
forefathers, who called themselves kings, and now that the Khalifa is
broken and the land has become safe, this is but a beginning of
riches.”
“I don’t know about that,” he answered, with his jolly laugh, “but I
have done very well for myself. Do you know that out of my
percentage I have saved more money than I can spend? Now I am
going to build a hospital and hire a skilled man to attend to it, for I am
tired of playing doctor.”
“Yes,” she answered, “I have thought of it before, only I said
nothing because it means bringing white folk into the place, and we
are so happy without them. Also, our people do not like strangers.”
“I understand,” he answered, “but the Europeans have discovered
us already. It is impossible to keep them out now that we pay taxes
to the Government. You remember that man a few months ago who
came to tell me that I am Lord Devene, and that since I became so
my wife is making inquiries about me. I would not see him, and you
sent him away, but he, or others, will be back again soon.”
“And then will you wish to leave with him, Rupert, and take your
own place in the West?” she asked anxiously.
“Not I,” he answered, “not if they offered to make me a king.”
“Well, why should you?” Mea said, with her sweet little laugh, “who
are already a king here,” and she touched her breast; “and there,”
and she nodded towards some people who bowed themselves
before him; “and everywhere,” and she waved her hand at the oasis
of Tama in general.
“Well,” he answered, “the first is the only crown I want.” Then,
having no more words to say, this strange pair, divorced for the
kingdom of Heaven’s sake, yet wedded indeed, if ever man and
woman have been, for truly their very souls were one, looked at each
other tenderly. They had changed somewhat since we saw them last
over seven years before. Their strange life had left its seal upon
them both. Mea’s face was thinner, the rich, full lips had a little wistful
droop; the great, pleading eyes had grown spiritual, as though with
continual looking over the edge of the world; the air of mystery which
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