Module 1 Decision Making
Module 1 Decision Making
Decision-making is defined as the process of selecting the best option among alternatives to
achieve a specific goal.
Phases in Decision-Making
1. Intelligence Phase
2. Design Phase
Definition: This phase involves coming up with possible solutions and evaluating them.
Example: The manager considers options like giving employees flexible work hours, hiring
more staff, or organizing team-building activities. Each option is reviewed for how it might
improve the situation.
3. Choice Phase
Definition: This is when the best solution is chosen and put into action.
Example: The manager decides to implement flexible work hours because it seems most
practical and likely to make employees happier. They set up the new schedule and
monitor the results.
Henry Mintzberg introduced another model that focuses on how decisions are actually made
in organizations. It has three phases: identification, development, and selection.
1. Identification Phase
Definition: This is when the problem is recognized and understood.
Example: A company realizes that sales are dropping. They investigate and find that
customers are unhappy with long delivery times.
2. Development Phase
3. Selection Phase
Conclusion
Decision-making involves identifying problems, exploring solutions, and choosing the best
one. Whether using Simon’s or Mintzberg’s model, these steps help organizations make better
choices and address challenges effectively.
Mechanistic Decisions
These are decisions that are predictable, repetitive, and often straightforward. They are like
following a checklist: there is little room for uncertainty because the alternatives and their
outcomes are well known. For instance, think about scheduling shifts for employees or
designing a routine onboarding process for new hires. These tasks don’t require deep analysis
or creativity; they follow a set pattern and are handled smoothly by applying existing
procedures.
Example: A company needs to schedule employee training. The HR manager uses the
training calendar and assigns employees to time slots based on availability.
Analytical Decisions
These decisions are based on detailed analysis and the processing of a lot of information.
When there are many options to choose from, managers rely on tools like data analysis or
models to predict the outcomes of their choices. This type of decision-making is about
finding the best solution using logic and evidence.
Judgmental Decisions
Judgmental decisions are made when there are only a few alternatives, but the outcomes of
these alternatives are not clear. In such cases, a manager relies on their experience, intuition,
and good judgment. These decisions are often about personal or leadership matters where
emotions and uncertainties play a big role.
Example: A manager must decide which employee to promote to a leadership role. While
there are only a few candidates, it’s hard to predict how they will perform in the new
position. The manager uses their experience and insight to make the best choice.
Adaptive Decisions
These decisions occur in highly complex and uncertain situations. There are many possible
options, and the outcomes of each are unknown. Adaptive decision-making requires flexibility
and teamwork, as the situation might keep changing. This is often used during crises or when
organizations face new challenges.
Example: After a sudden wave of resignations, a company’s leadership team must figure
out how to redistribute work and retain remaining employees. They come up with
temporary fixes but must continuously adjust their approach as the situation evolves.
factors.
Judgmental Decisions with limited options but Choosing an employee for promotion to a
Adaptive Complex, uncertain decisions needing Managing a crisis like mass resignations
organization.
This explanation organizes decision types into relatable scenarios, showing how they are
applied in real workplace situations. Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into any category!
Nature of Decision-Making
Decision-making involves choosing the best option from several alternatives to solve a
problem or achieve a goal. The process depends on how much information the decision-
maker has about the situation and the possible outcomes.
Certainty: You know exactly what will happen. Example: Proven bonus plans.
Risk: You know the possible outcomes and their chances. Example: Team-building
programs with some risks.
Uncertainty: You have no idea what will happen. Example: Trying new policies during
unexpected situations.
models of DM process
Models of Decision-Making
Decision-making models help explain how individuals or groups approach decisions in various
contexts, including organizational psychology. Below are the explanations and organizational
examples for Econologic Model and Bounded Rationality Model, incorporating all key points.
Found by: Based on classical economic theory, this model was explained in
detail by Harrison in 1999.
Key Assumptions:
Steps:
1. Identify the Problem: Clearly define the issue that needs a decision.
2. Determine the Criteria: Establish standards to evaluate potential solutions.
3. Generate Alternatives: Create a comprehensive list of all possible solutions.
4. Evaluate Consequences: Assess the outcomes and risks associated with each alternative.
5. Select and Implement the Best Option: Choose the alternative that meets the criteria
and promises the best outcome.
Critique :
This model assumes complete rationality, which is unrealistic due to time, cognitive, and
information-processing limitations.
Despite these flaws, advancements in technology, like data analytics, make achieving
economic rationality more feasible.
Key Assumptions:
Decision-makers operate under constraints, such as limited time, cognitive capacity, and
information.
Instead of seeking the “best” solution, they aim for a “good enough” or satisfactory
outcome.
Uses heuristics (shortcuts or rules of thumb) to simplify decision-making.
Three Mechanisms:
1. Step-by-Step Selection: Alternatives are examined one by one. If one fails, it is discarded,
and another is considered until a satisfactory solution is found.
2. Heuristics: Shortcuts are used to focus on solutions with a high probability of success.
For example, relying on past experiences or well-performing patterns.
3. Satisficing: Once a solution meets minimum criteria, the search stops, even if it’s not
optimal.
Steps:
Critique:
This model is realistic as it reflects how decisions are often made in real-life organizational
settings. However, it risks missing better alternatives due to its satisficing approach.
Unrealistic in most real-world situations. Reflects how decisions are actually made.
This model focuses on non-programmed decisions, which are new or unstructured (e.g.,
choosing your first job or hiring someone). Soelberg found that people often pick a favorite
option early and then justify it as if they made a logical choice.
Key Ideas
1. Pick the Implicit Favourite: Without realizing it, you choose the option you like the most.
Example: During job selection, a student might feel drawn to a particular company
because of its brand reputation.
2. Search for Alternatives: You consider other choices to compare and evaluate.
Example: The student attends interviews with other companies but compares
everything to their favorite choice.
3. Develop Decision Rules: You set criteria to evaluate the alternatives.
Example: You decide to rate companies based on salary, career growth, and work-life
balance.
4. Distort Information: You unconsciously highlight the strengths of your favorite choice
and downplay the strengths of others.
Example: You exaggerate how your favorite company offers growth opportunities
while ignoring its long work hours.
5. Make the Decision: You finalize the choice and present it as logical and rational.
Example: You accept the offer from your favorite company, justifying it by saying it
"scored the highest on your criteria."
A manager prefers one candidate during recruitment (implicit favorite) and evaluates others
only to confirm their initial choice. Despite interviewing multiple candidates, they eventually
hire their favorite while presenting the decision as logical.
This model explains that some decisions are made in a chaotic, unpredictable way, especially
in organizations where problems, solutions, and people interact randomly.
Key Ideas
Organizations are like a “garbage can” where problems, solutions, people, and
opportunities mix together.
Decisions are made randomly, not logically.
A decision occurs when all the right elements (problem, solution, decision-makers, and
opportunity) accidentally align.
This model is common during crises or fast-paced situations.
1. Problems and Solutions Exist Separately: Problems and solutions float around without
direct connection.
Example: A company has unresolved issues (e.g., declining sales) and unused ideas
(e.g., new marketing strategies).
2. Players and Opportunities: People (decision-makers) and opportunities appear
unpredictably.
Example: The marketing team meets a consultant who proposes an innovative
campaign.
3. Alignment of Factors: A decision is made when a problem, solution, people, and
opportunity align.
Example: During a sudden sales drop, the company adopts the consultant’s idea
because the problem and solution align at the right time.
4. Implement the Decision: The chosen solution is applied without much analysis or
deliberation.
Example: The marketing campaign is launched immediately, hoping it resolves the
sales issue.
During a data breach, an organization scrambles to address the problem. The IT team
suggests hiring an external cybersecurity firm, and the CEO approves the solution
immediately, not because it’s the best option but because it aligns with the crisis.
Both models emphasize that decision-making isn’t always logical or structured, especially in
dynamic or personal situations. While the Implicit Favourite Model highlights emotional
preferences disguised as rational decisions, the Garbage Can Model shows how chaos and
randomness influence decisions in fast-paced environments.
TECHNIQUES USED IN DM
1. Brainstorming
Brainstorming is a group activity where people come together to think of as many ideas as
possible without judgment. It encourages creativity and builds on the belief that a free-
flowing, non-critical environment leads to innovative solutions.
How It Works:
Example:
Principles:
2. Synectics
Synectics involves using creative thinking techniques to connect unrelated ideas and develop
unique solutions. It combines logical thinking with imagination, often using analogies or role-
play.
How It Works:
A group led by a facilitator uses techniques like role-playing, analogies, and metaphors to
explore problems from different angles.
Unlike brainstorming, ideas are evaluated during the session with the help of a technical
expert.
Example:
In a leadership training session, managers use the analogy of a beehive to improve teamwork.
They discuss how each bee’s specific role contributes to the hive’s success, then apply this to
creating more effective team structures.
Key Difference:
This technique is structured and reduces group discussions to avoid domination by any single
individual. Members work individually first, then come together to share ideas.
How It Works:
Example:
Each HR member writes down suggestions like gym memberships, mental health days, or
free healthy snacks.
The team ranks these ideas based on cost, feasibility, and employee preference.
This technique minimizes the influence of dominant personalities, ensuring every member’s
idea is considered equally.
4. Delphi Technique
The Delphi method gathers feedback from experts without requiring them to meet in person.
It’s a great technique for getting insights when people are located in different places or are
too busy to meet.
How It Works:
Example:
An organization wants to implement a new training program for managers. Experts from
different fields (psychology, business, and education) are consulted via email. Each expert
shares their ideas, which are refined over several rounds until a clear plan emerges.
After identifying possible options, the next step is to assess them to find the best solution.
Each option is evaluated based on its strengths, weaknesses, benefits, costs, and how well it
fits the goal.
1. Clear Goals:
Having clear goals makes it easier to compare options.
Without clear goals, decisions can get delayed or be based on personal preferences.
Example: If a company doesn’t clearly decide whether it wants more profits or higher
customer satisfaction, it’s hard to pick the best strategy.
2. Information Availability:
To evaluate properly, you need accurate and complete information about the options.
Problems include:
Bias: Misinterpreting or ignoring key information.
Lack of knowledge: Being unaware of all options.
Example: When buying a camera, your decision depends on how much you know
about available brands and features.
3. Implicit Favorite:
Sometimes, we unconsciously favor one option and overlook others.
Example: A manager might prefer a job candidate they personally like, even if another
candidate is better qualified.
4. Satisficing:
Instead of finding the best option, decision-makers often settle for one that is “good
enough.”
Example: Choosing the first vendor who meets basic needs without comparing all
options.
1. Systematic Evaluation:
Compare options step by step using clear criteria.
Example: When hiring someone:
1. List the important qualities (e.g., experience, skills).
2. Rate each candidate on these qualities.
3. Rank candidates based on their total scores.
2. Scenario Planning:
Think about possible future situations and how each option might work in those
scenarios.
Example: A company might prepare different strategies for economic growth or a
downturn.
Selection of Alternatives
Once options are evaluated, choose the one most likely to meet the goals.
Key Points:
1. Balancing Goals:
Decisions often require trade-offs between things like cost, quality, or speed.
Example: A company might choose slower delivery to save money.
2. Resource Limits:
Choices depend on what’s available, like budget, time, or staff.
Example: Choosing a simpler marketing strategy because of budget restrictions.
3. Judgment and Experience:
Experienced decision-makers can balance different factors and make practical
choices.
Example: A project manager may pick a slightly expensive contractor if they know the
contractor is reliable.
In practice, selecting an option often requires compromise, but a systematic approach helps
make better decisions.
Problems in decision-making refer to the challenges, biases, or errors that hinder effective
decision-making. These issues may arise due to incomplete information, cognitive biases, or
poor problem analysis.
Key Problems:
2. Misunderstanding a Situation
Definition:
Key Factors:
1. Perceptual Biases:
Explanation: People see situations through their own perspectives, which can distort
reality.
Example: Two employees, one introverted and one extroverted, may perceive a
workplace as hostile or friendly based on their personal outlooks.
Teaching Tip: Conduct a classroom activity where students describe the same image
or event, highlighting how perceptions differ.
2. Incomplete Information:
Explanation: Making decisions with partial data often leads to errors.
Example: A company launching a product without studying competitors’ pricing might
face poor sales.
Teaching Tip: Use case studies where incomplete information caused failures (e.g.,
failed business ventures).
3. Emotional Influence:
Explanation: Strong emotions like anxiety or excitement can cloud judgment.
Example: A manager might prematurely approve a project due to excitement about its
potential, ignoring its feasibility.
Teaching Tip: Discuss how emotional intelligence helps in maintaining objectivity.
Definition:
Rushing decisions involves making choices without giving adequate time to evaluate options
or gather information.
Key Issues:
1. Time Pressure: When deadlines loom, individuals feel compelled to make quick decisions.
2. Overconfidence: Believing they can handle situations quickly, leaders may bypass
thorough analysis.
3. Groupthink: Pressure to conform in group settings can lead to hasty, unanimous
decisions.
Example 1: A team approves a merger based solely on financial metrics, ignoring cultural
compatibility, leading to integration issues later.
Example 2: A product is launched without sufficient testing, causing customer backlash
due to defects.
Awareness of Cognitive Biases: Train people to notice and avoid thinking mistakes, like
assuming things are true without enough evidence.
Cognitive biases are ways our thinking can go wrong, like:
Anchoring: When we focus too much on the first thing we hear.
Overconfidence: When we think we know more than we really do.
Groupthink: When we just agree with the group instead of thinking for ourselves.
In the marketing manager example, they avoid being overconfident by looking for extra
information from other sources. This helps them make better decisions instead of just
trusting their first thoughts.
Example: A marketing manager checks outside opinions to make sure they’re not just
overestimating how well their campaign is doing.
Skill Development: Help people improve their problem-solving and thinking skills.
Example: Offer training on tools to analyze data for the finance team.
Using Structured Approaches: Follow proven models for decision-making:
Rational Model: Think logically and try to get the best outcome.
Bounded Rationality Model: Sometimes, due to limited time or resources, people
make good enough decisions instead of perfect ones.
Example: A startup uses a simple chart to compare costs and benefits of different
vendors.
Feedback Loops: Keep checking past decisions to see what worked and what didn’t to
improve future ones.
Example: A software company looks at past project successes to make improvements
for future releases.
Decision-Making Tools: Use tools like SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,
threats) analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and decision trees to help make clear decisions.
What is it? It’s when groups of people use a planned method to make decisions together.
Common Problems:
Groupthink: Everyone just agrees with each other, even if it’s not the best decision.
Solution: Assign someone to challenge ideas and make sure all opinions are
considered.
Social Loafing: Some group members do less work because they feel others will pick up
the slack.
Solution: Assign clear responsibilities to each member.
Risky Shift: Groups sometimes make riskier decisions than individuals would.
Solution: Use clear guidelines to evaluate risks and avoid hasty decisions.
Tata Steel’s Joint Decision-Making: Employees and managers work together to improve
safety and operations in the company.
Example: Employees give input on safety measures in the workplace.
Corporate Sustainability Decisions: Companies use tools to consider the impact of their
decisions on people and the environment.
Example: A company chooses between two renewable energy projects based on
feedback from the community.
Startup Agile Development: Startups often use short, structured meetings (called daily
stand-ups) to quickly identify and fix issues.
Example: A tech startup identifies and fixes a bug before launching their product.