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Time Series Models for Business and

Economic Forecasting

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated
and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practi-
tioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series
analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises
the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting mod-
els for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely
new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters exam-
ine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends,
seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models,
non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. A
companion website with downloadable datasets, exercises and lecture slides rounds
out the full learning package.

Philip Hans Franses is Professor of Applied Econometrics and Professor of Market-

ing Research at the Erasmus School of Economics.

Dick van Dijk is Professor of Financial Econometrics at the Erasmus School of

Economics.
Anne Opschoor is completing a PhD at the Erasmus School of Economics and is an
Assistant Professor at the Free University.
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Time Series Models

for Business and
Economic Forecasting
SECOND EDITION

Philip Hans Franses, Dick van Dijk

and Anne Opschoor
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University Printing House, Cambridge CB2 8BS, United Kingdom

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

Cambridge University Press is a part of the University of Cambridge.

It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of
education, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence.

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521520911

C Philip Hans Franses. Dick van Dijk and Anne Opschoor 2014

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 1998
Second edition published 2014
Printed in the United Kingdom by MPG Printgroup Ltd, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data

ISBN 978-0-521-81770-7 Hardback

ISBN 978-0-521-52091-1 Paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of

URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication,
and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
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Contents

List of figures page vii

List of tables x
Preface xi

1 Introduction and overview 1

r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

2 Key features of economic time series 8

r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

2.1 Trends 9
2.2 Seasonality 14
2.3 Aberrant observations 22
2.4 Conditional heteroskedasticity 26
2.5 Non-linearity 27
2.6 Common features 29

3 Useful concepts in univariate time series analysis 33

r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

3.1 Autoregressive moving average models 35

3.2 Autocorrelation and identification 45
3.3 Estimation and diagnostic measures 58
3.4 Model selection 65
3.5 Forecasting 66

4 Trends 77
r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

4.1 Modeling trends 79

4.2 Unit root tests 94
4.3 Stationarity tests 102
4.4 Forecasting 104

5 Seasonality 110
r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

5.1 Modeling seasonality 112

v
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vi Contents

5.2 Seasonal unit root tests 124

5.3 Forecasting 131

6 Aberrant observations 139

r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

6.1 Modeling aberrant observations 144

6.2 What happens if we neglect outliers? 152
6.3 What to do about outliers? 154
6.4 Outliers and unit root tests 160

7 Conditional Heteroskedasticity 166

r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

7.1 Models for conditional heteroskedasticity 169

7.2 Various extensions 176
7.3 Specification, estimation and evaluation 183
7.4 Forecasting 194

8 Non-linearity 205
r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

8.1 Regime-switching models 206

8.2 Estimation 212
8.3 Testing for nonlinearity 220
8.4 Diagnostic checking 227
8.5 Forecasting 232

9 Multivariate time series 240

r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

9.1 Representations 244

9.2 Empirical model building 252
9.3 Applying VAR models 256
9.4 Cointegration: some preliminaries 262
9.5 Inference on cointegration 269

Bibliography 284
Subject index 298
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Figures

2.1 Annual indices of log real GDP per capita in Latin American countries page 9
2.2 Annual stock of motorcycles in The Netherlands 12
2.3 Quarterly index of US industrial production 13
2.4 Monthly US new passenger car registrations 14
2.5 Quarterly growth rates of US industrial production 15
2.6 Vector-of-quarters representation of quarterly US
industrial production 16
2.7 Changing seasonality in US industrial production 17
2.8 Quarterly UK household final consumption expenditures 18
2.9 Quarterly growth rates of UK household final consumption
expenditures 19
2.10 Vector-of-quarters representation of quarterly UK household final
consumption expenditures 19
2.11 Changing seasonality in UK household consumption 20
2.12 Four-weekly advertising expenditures on radio and television
in the Netherlands 21
2.13 Changing seasonality in television advertising expenditures 21
2.14 Monthly revenue passenger-kilometers flown for European airlines 23
2.15 Annual growth rates of revenue passenger-kilometers flown for
European airlines 24
2.16 Monthly growth rates of revenue passenger-kilometers flown for
European airlines 25
2.17 Monthly growth rates of revenue passenger-kilometers flown for
European airlines 25
2.18 Daily returns on the Dow Jones index 26
2.19 Quarterly US unemployment rate among men of 16 years and over 28
2.20 Monthly log prices of gold and silver 31
2.21 Daily returns of gold and silver 31
3.1 Simulated AR(1) time series 38
3.2 Simulated MA(1) time series 43
3.3 Theoretical autocorrelation function of an AR(2) process 49
3.4 Theoretical autocorrelation function of an AR(2) process 50

vii
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viii List of figures

3.5 Theoretical autocorrelation function of an AR(2) process 51

3.6 Theoretical autocorrelation function of an AR(2) process 52
3.7 Empirical autocorrelation function of annual differences of log
monthly US industrial production 56
3.8 Typical fit of an AR time series model 60
4.1 Simulated time series from deterministic trend and stochastic
trend models 82
4.2 Results of a regression of US industrial production on a constant and
a linear deterministic trend 83
4.3 Results of a regression of stock of motorcycles on a quadratic
deterministic trend 86
4.4 Partial sums of residuals for Latin American GDP per capita 87
4.5 Example of a Gompertz curve and a logistic curve 88
4.6 Empirical autocorrelation function for absolute daily gold returns 93
4.7 Point forecasts and 95% interval forecasts from an AR(2) model for
US industrial production 107
4.8 Point forecasts and 95% interval forecasts from an ARI(1,1) model
for US industrial production 107
5.1 Results of a regression of quarterly UK household consumption on an
intercept and a linear deterministic trend 112
5.2 Vector-of-quarters representation of deviations from linear trend of
UK household consumption 113
5.3 Simulated quarterly seasonal random walk and transformations 119
5.4 Vector-of-quarters plot of simulated seasonal random walk 120
6.1 Quarterly log industrial production France 140
6.2 Quarterly growth rates of industrial production France 140
6.3 Daily returns on the Dow Jones index 141
6.4 Daily returns on the Dow Jones index, September 1–December 31,
1987 141
6.5 Example of an additive outlier 146
6.6 Example of an additive outlier 146
6.7 Effect of neglecting a single additive outlier on residuals of
AR(1) model 147
6.8 Example of an innovation outlier 149
6.9 Example of an innovation outlier 149
6.10 Effect of neglecting a single innovation outlier on residuals
of AR(1) model 150
6.11 Example of a level shift 152
6.12 Huber weight function 157
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List of figures ix

6.13 Quarterly (log) US manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense

capital goods 159
6.14 Results from an AR(3) model for US manufacturers’ new orders for
non-defense capital goods 159
7.1 QQ-plot of daily returns on the Dow Jones index 167
7.2 Daily returns on the Dow Jones index, July 1, 1998–December 31,
1998 168
7.3 Scatter of daily returns on the Dow Jones index, July 1,
1998–December 31, 1998 169
7.4 Empirical autocorrelation function of daily returns, squared returns,
and absolute returns on the Dow Jones index 170
7.5 News impact curves from the GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1) and
TGARCH(1,1) models 181
7.6 Daily MSCI Switzerland returns 190
7.7 Empirical ACF and ACF implied by the GARCH(1,1) model of
squared daily MSCI Switzerland returns 191
7.8 Conditional standard deviation from GARCH(1,1) model for daily
returns on the MSCI Switzerland index 192
7.9 Empirical ACF of (squared) residuals for an ARCH(1) and
GARCH(1,1) model for daily returns on the MSCI Switzerland index 192
7.10 Conditional standard deviation from GARCH(1,1) and
TGARCH(1,1) models for daily returns on the MSCI Switzerland
index 193
7.11 One-step ahead forecasts of conditional standard deviation from
TGARCH(1,1) models for daily returns on MSCI Switzerland 199
7.12 One-step ahead 95% interval forecasts from TGARCH(1,1) models
for daily returns on MSCI Switzerland 199
8.1 Logistic functions 208
8.2 Quarterly seasonally adjusted US unemployment rates 224
8.3 Sequence of Wald statistics for testing threshold nonlinearity in US
unemployment rates 225
8.4 Transition function in LSTAR model for quarterly seasonally adjusted
US unemployment rate 226
9.1 Impulse response function with 95% confidence bounds 260
9.2 Simulated cointegrated time series 264
9.3 Monthly white and black pepper price series 274
9.4 Cointegration relation between the logarithm of white and black
pepper prices 276
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Tables

2.1 Trends in real GDP per capita in Latin American countries 10

2.2 Trends in US industrial production 13
3.1 Empirical (partial) autocorrelation functions for monthly
revenue-passenger kilometres of European airlines 57
4.1 Critical values for tests to select between deterministic trend and
stochastic trend models 96
4.2 Testing for unit roots: some empirical examples 101
4.3 Forecast standard errors for the stock of motorcycles 106
5.1 Empirical autocorrelation functions of UK consumption 116
5.2 Critical values for HEGY seasonal unit root tests in quarterly time
series 129
5.3 Testing for seasonal unit roots: some empirical examples 130
6.1 Asymptotic critical values of Dickey-Fuller t-test in the presence of
level shifts and breaking trends at a known date 162
6.2 Asymptotic critical values of HEGY test statistics in the presence of
seasonal level shifts at known break date 164
9.1 VAR model selection for gold and silver prices 254
9.2 Variance decomposition in VAR(2) model for gold and silver prices 261
9.3 Asymptotic critical values for the Eagle and Granger (1987)
cointegration method 265
9.4 Asymptotic critical values for the Johansen cointegration method 272
9.5 Empirical (partial) autocorrelation functions for the cointegration
variable of white and black pepper prices 275
9.6 Asymptotic critical values for the cointegration test based on a
conditional error correction model 278

x
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Preface

The econometric analysis of economic and business time series is a major field of
research and application. The last few decades have witnessed an increasing interest
in both theoretical and empirical developments in constructing time series models
and in their important application in forecasting. This book aims at reviewing several
important developments within the context of forecasting business and economic time
series.
A full-blown textbook on all aspects of time series analysis will cover thousands
of pages. For example, the field of unit root analysis has expanded in the last three
decades with such a pace and variation that a book only on this topic would take
more pages than the current book does. This book is therefore not intended to be a
survey of all that is available and that can be done in time series analysis. Obviously,
such a selection comes with a cost, that is, the discussion will sometimes not be as
theoretically precise as some readers would have liked. Merely, it is our purpose that
the readers should be able to generate their own forecasts from time series models that
adequately describe the key features of the data, to evaluate these forecasts and to come
up with suggestions for possible modifications if necessary. In some interesting cases,
though, we also recommend further reading. To attain this, we make a selection between
all the possible routes to constructing and evaluating time series models, between all
the possible estimation methods, and between all the various tests that can be used.
Basically, our choice is also motivated by the availability of methods in such statistical
packages as Eviews, while sometimes a little bit of Gauss, R or Matlab programming
is needed. In fact, all empirical results in this book are thus obtained. An additional
motivation for our choice is given by our own practical experience in forecasting
business and economic time series. This experience is also based on supervising
projects of our econometrics undergraduate students during their internships at banks,
investment companies, and consultancy agencies.
The second purpose with this book is that the reader will be able to get some
understanding of novel approaches reported in recent and future issues of, say, the
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Business and
Economic Statistics, Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Jour-
nal of Applied Econometrics and the Journal of the American Statistical Association.

xi
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xii Preface

It is hoped that the reader finds the material in this book helpful to understand why
such new methods can be useful for forecasting.
Although this book amounts to an introduction to the field of time series analysis and
forecasting, it is necessary that the reader has knowledge of introductory econometrics.
Specifically, regression analysis, matrix algebra and various concepts in estimation
should be included in that knowledge. This book should then be useful to advanced
undergraduate students and graduate students in business and economics, but also to
practitioners and applied economists who wish to obtain a first, but not too technical,
impression of time series forecasting. In fact, most of the material has already been
used in “Time Series Analysis” courses for third year undergraduate students at the
Econometric Institute in Rotterdam ever since 1996.
The first edition of this book Franses (1998) contained material that has now been
deleted. Periodic models for seasonal data are not included anymore and also an exten-
sive discussion of common features has been deleted. On the other hand, more details
on ARCH model and on non-linear models have been included. More importantly,
this fully revised second edition contains sections with exercises and answers. These
exercises match with those presented at past exams to our students.
This book was written during our affiliation with the Econometric Institute at
the Erasmus University Rotterdam. This Institute is a very stimulating teaching and
research environment. We wish to express our gratitude to our (then) colleagues Teun
Kloek, Christiaan Heij, Herman van Dijk, Dennis Fok, Richard Paap, Andre Lucas,
Marius Ooms and anonymous reviewers for their kind willingness to comment on
some or all chapters.

Rotterdam, July 2013 Philip Hans Franses

Dick van Dijk
Anne Opschoor
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1 Introduction and overview

This book concerns the construction of time series models for describing the
dynamic properties of economic variables and for out-of-sample forecasting. The
economic variables can originate from various subject areas in economics and
business, including macro-economics, finance, and marketing. Specific examples
of time series of interest are inflation rates, unemployment rates, stock market
returns, and market shares. Out-of-sample forecasts for such variables are often
needed to set policy targets. For example, the forecast for next year’s inflation
rate can lead to a change in the monetary policy of a central bank. A forecast of
a company’s market share in the next few months may lead to changes in the
allocation of advertising budgets. The models in this book can be called
econometric time series models because we use econometric methods for
analysis.

Time series variables can display a wide variety of patterns. Typically, macroeconomic
aggregates such as industrial production, consumption, and wages show an upward
trending pattern. Industrial production, tourism expenditures, and retail sales, among
many others, display a pronounced seasonal pattern, that is, tourism spending is usually
largest during the summer and retail sales tend to peak around Christmas. Another
feature is that certain observations on economic data look aberrant in the sense that
they occur rarely and deviate strongly from the typical behavior of the variable. For
example, if new car registrations are almost zero in a certain month because of a
computer breakdown, this does not reflect the true sales of new cars. Similarly, stock
markets can crash with daily returns as large as minus 20 percent. Another characteristic
property of financial asset prices is that periods of large price movements alternate with
relatively calm periods, suggesting that the volatility of these variables changes over
time. Finally, many economic time series display asymmetric or non-linear behavior.
Unemployment, for example, increases rapidly during recessions but declines only
slowly during expansions.
It seems obvious that there is not a single time series model that, first, can describe
all of the above features simultaneously and, second, is also reasonably accurate in out-
of-sample forecasting. In fact, several models are available to describe each of these

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