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Forecasting EA

The document presents stock price data for November 2023, showing an increasing trend over ten days. It includes a scatter chart and an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing parameter of 0.25, forecasting a stock price of $113.44 for November 11, 2023, with a Mean Squared Error of 42.93. Additionally, it highlights cyclical components in the stock prices relative to the trend line.

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ally.almencion
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5 views4 pages

Forecasting EA

The document presents stock price data for November 2023, showing an increasing trend over ten days. It includes a scatter chart and an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing parameter of 0.25, forecasting a stock price of $113.44 for November 11, 2023, with a Mean Squared Error of 42.93. Additionally, it highlights cyclical components in the stock prices relative to the trend line.

Uploaded by

ally.almencion
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Date Stock Price 0.

25
November 1, 2023 100
November 2, 2023 105
November 3, 2023 102
November 4, 2023 108
November 5, 2023 110
November 6, 2023 107
November 7. 2023 112
November 8, 2023 115
November 9, 2023 118
November 10, 2023 120

1. Create a scatter chart and identify the components of the time series.

Stock Price
125

120

115
Stock Price

110

105

100

95

90
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Date
95

90
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Date

2. Create a simple exponential smoothing model with a smoothing parameter of 0.25 and make a stock price forecast for No
Exponential Smoothing Model
t Y Ft et^2
#NAME? 100 #N/A Exponential Smo
#NAME? 105 100.00 25.00 150
#NAME? 102 101.25 0.56
100
#NAME? 108 101.44 43.07

Value
50
#NAME? 110 103.08 47.91
#NAME? 107 104.81 4.80 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
#NAME? 112 105.36 44.14
Data Point
#NAME? 115 107.02 63.72
#NAME? 118 109.01 80.77
#NAME? 120 111.26 76.39
#NAME? 113.44 42.93
Forecast MSE

Using the exponential smoothing, the stock price forecast for November 11,
2023 is $113.44 with a Mean Squared Error of 42.93.
Based on time series data components, there is an evident increasing trend of stock
prices throughout the observed 10 day-period of November. In addition, the graph
depicted cyclical components which are above and below the trend line between
each periods.

10 12
10 12

make a stock price forecast for November 11, 2023.

Exponential Smoothing

Actual
Forecast

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point

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