Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

1-Introduction:
As the direct link to end customers, electric power distribution systems must
meet customer load demands at all times in a safe and efficient way.
Therefore, load information is an essential part of power distribution system
analysis. Specifically, up-to date nodal load information is required to accurately
represent customers and for many operation, control and planning of power
distribution system

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

The information normally available for load estimation in power distribution

systems includes the customer information (type, location… etc.) and historical
data (billing data, monthly power consumption in kWh, etc.). Knowledge about
The type of customers is very important for load forecasting and load estimation.
Customers are frequently categorized into groups/classes with common
consumption Characteristics with different timescales (annual, monthly, weekly
or hourly), such as the amount of average power demands and the peak time in a
day and year.
The load data is needed for defining the requirements of the network’s
transmission capacity, approximation the transmission losses or estimating the
existing network’s capability to transfer increasing loads. The planning
Of new generation capacity or energy purchase requires knowledge of customer’s
load variation as shown here.

Loads can be classified according to the types of customer, their end-use devices
and their power consumption behavior.

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

Basic Definitions:

►► Maximum Demand:-
The maximum demand of an installation or a system is the greatest of all
demands which has occurred during a specified period of time. The
maximum demand statement should also express the demand interval used
to measure it.

►► Demand Factor:-
For an electrical system or feeder circuit, this is a ratio of the amount of
connected load (in KVA or amperes) that will be operating at the same time
to the total amount of connected load on the circuit.

 Maximum _ Demand 
DF =  
 Total _ connected _ load 

The demand factor is usually less than 1.0 it is an indicator of the

simultaneous operation of the total connected load. An 80% demand factor,
for instance, indicates that only 80% of the connected load on a circuit will
ever be operating at the same time. Conductor capacity can be based on that
amount of load.

►► Maximum Load:-
The average load over the half hour of maximum output.

►► Connected Load:-
It is the sum of the continuous ratings of the load consuming apparatus
connected to the system or any part therefore when the maximum demand
and the total connected load have the same units the demand factor us
dimensionless.

►► Load Curve:-
The curve is constructed by selecting the maximum peak points and
connecting them by a curve. The load duration curve can be daily, weekly,
monthly, or annual.

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

►►The basic component of load curve:-

1-The installed generating capacity:-

Which equal the peak demand plus spinning reverse of (10%- 20%)
of maximum demand.
2-Base load:-
This load run all the day which covered by nuclear power station
and thermal power stations.
3-Controlled Load:-

Daily Load Fluctuation

►► Load factor:-
The units of electricity exported by the generators in a given period divided by
the product of the maximum load in this period and the length of this period in
hours.

The load factor should be high: if it is unity all the plant is being used over all
of the period. It varies with the type of load being poor for lighting about 12%
and high for industrial loads 100% for pumping station.

 Average _ Load 
LF =  
 Maximum _ Demand 

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

►►Diversity factor:-
This is defined as the sum of individual maximum demands of the consumers
divided by the maximum load on the system. This factor measures the
diversification of the load and is concerned with the installation of sufficient
generating and transmission plant. If all the demands occurred simultaneously,
i.e. unity diversity factor many more generators would have be installed.
Fortunately the factor is much higher than unity especially for domestic loads.

 Sum _ of _ Individual _ Maximum _ Demands 

Div_F =  
 Maximum _ Demand 

Diversity factor is greater than or equal to 1.0

►► Loss Factor:-
It is the ratio of the average power loss to the peak load power loss during a
specified period of time.

 AVERAGE _ POWER _ LOSS 

L.F .   
 POWER _ LOSS _ AT _ PEAK _ LOAD 

►►Capacity factor (C.F):

It is the ratio of average demand to the plant capacity.

 AVERAGE _ DEMAND 
C.F .   
 PLANT _ CAPACITY 

 annual _ kwh _ output 

annual _ capacity _ factor   
 plant _ capacity * 8760 

The capacity factor is an indication of the reserve capacity of the plant. A

power station is so designed that it has some reserve capacity for meeting the
increased load demand in future. Therefore, the installed capacity of plant is
always somewhat greater than the maximum demand on the plant.

Reserve capacity = plant capacity – max demand

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

►►Utilization factor
It is the ratio of the maximum demand of the system to its rated capacity.
Therefore the utilization factor is:

 Maximum _ demand 
U . f   
 rated _ system _ capacity 
Of course the utilization factor can also be found for apart of the system. The
rated system capacity may be selected to be smaller of thermal or voltage
drop capacity.

►►Plant factor:
It is the ratio of the total actual energy produced or served a designated
period of time to the energy that would have been produced or served if the
plant (or unit) had operated continuously at maximum rating it is also known
as capacity factor or the use factor.

 actual _ energy _ produced 

P.F .   
 max imum _ demand 

One typical classification of loads is as follows:

►► Residential
- Small/Low
- Medium
- Large/High
►► Commercial
- Small/Low
- Medium
- Large/High
►► Industrial
- Small/Low
- Medium
- Large/High
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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

For customer classes with similar load patterns, standard load curves, which are
diagrams of loads as a function of time, can be obtained from the monitoring of
individual customer demands within a specific interval through load research
studies. The standard load curve can provide initial load estimates. For example,
two daily load curves are shown in Figure’s one is for a commercial load, a
industrial load and the other is for a residential load.

The system engineer should have or acquire knowledge of the

characteristics of loads to be supplied in order to select the proper system
and its components.

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

2-knowledge of the characteristics of loads:-

This knowledge should include the following items:

i. Load Survey and characteristics.
ii. Demand and diversity analysis.
iii. Load forecasting for future requirements.
2-1- Load Survey:-
The first step of load survey is load definition. As has been mentioned above, one
of three types. According to the type, survey will be oriented towards the proper
channel. However, the three types of load are in common with several items of
survey. Our project is designing a commercial mall and hotel commercial loads
comprise all loads.
2-2- Demand and diversity analysis:-
From our knowledge about the natural of the project we can know by predicting,
first connected load and then the maximum demand (it is the greatest demand of
load on distribution system), it help us in determining the installed capacity and
the rating of service equipment (transformers, cable, C.Bs…). The system must
be capable of meeting the maximum demand.

The following issues should be considered in load estimation for power

distribution systems:-
• The load-driven nature of power distribution system: there is no need to
maintain system voltages if no loads are connected.
• The interdependence between system states and loads.
• Three-phase modeling.
• Operating and loading constraints.
• On-line measurements.

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

►►Note:-
We did not taken in our consideration diversity factor because of the special
natural of this part of project (load) which most of its load operate at the same
time.
2-3 Load forecasting:
The design of distribution system must take into account the future increase
in load.
Our project is designing a commercial mall, cinema, big super market, and
a big conference hall as well as very large Hotel and fun faire center
Our project is central air conditioned but in our design we don’t take into
consideration the mechanical design of the air condition.
From the electrical point of view. The most loads in our project are
concentrated in “lighting for each part of the project, central air condition,
video games equipments, cookers, refrigerators “as well as air condition of
each part of the Hotel
It is Cleary that from the nature of the activity that all of the loads are
turned on nearly at the same time and turned off also at the same time. So
our design is based upon that there is no diversity factor in loads
The power demand for each category of loads( small shops ,large shops,
small restaurants ,large restaurant ,coffee shop , super
market ,Cinema ,conference hall, etc ,….)
The following gives the details of the power estimation of each load :
Our design is based on the area of the place
i.e. the small area will be considered a small load and supplied from single
phase, and large area will be considered a big load and will be supplied from
three phase or single phase with higher rating.

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

3-Our project:
In this project the load estimation for the mole is based upon the area of the
shops
There for we will classify the shops into three categories
1. Area (І) and its area nearly 3*3 m2
2. Area (ІІ) and its area nearly 6 * 3 m2
3. Area (ІІІ) and its area nearly 6*6 m2
3-1 Area (І)

And its expected loads are only the lighting and some electrical equipment
like T.V, computers only, therefore it will be supplied from single phase and
the expected power is only nearly 6KW.

3-2 Area (ІІ)

“Medium area “in our design we take in to consideration the variety i. e

some part of shops with medium area will be supplied from single phase up
to (63 A).

3-3 Area (ІІІ)

It’s the largest area its expected loads is expected to be restaurants,

cookers and coffee shops.
Therefore it is a bulk power it will be supplied from
Three phase (40A) or three phases (63A) or three phase (80A)
In our design we talk into consideration that the design does not be sharp.
There is margin in the design
i.e. the shops in our project is for a rent . for example If a shop is designed for
clothes for a certain period , and the tenant leave the shop and another one rent
the shop and change it’s activity .
►The design must cover the changes in the loads

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

Every group of loads “shops” will be added together and will be supplied
from Branch switch board, and the nearest branch switch board will be added
together and supplied from main switch board, and the nearest main switch
board will be added together and supplied from Transformer taking into
consideration that every transformer must not be loaded more than 80 % of its
full load.
In this project the load estimation for the hotel divided the floors to work floor,
cooker, restaurant and living room.
►► The living Room divided to:
1- Normal room (queen & King)
2- Diplomatic suit.
3- King suit.

5- Expected daily load curve:

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Chapter ( 1 ) load estimation

Note:
Load curve method provides rather good long-term load forecasts with
minimal input data
After beginning the design we will make load estimation for the project to
estimate nearly how much power is needed to supply the project. We will
begin the design from down stream until we reach for the upper stream

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