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Exercise 5 1

The document contains exercises on probability, including multiple-choice questions and written problems related to various probability concepts such as independent events, conditional probabilities, and sample spaces. It covers scenarios involving coin flips, dice rolls, and real-world applications related to disease testing and demographic data. The exercises aim to test understanding of probability theory and its applications.

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8 views5 pages

Exercise 5 1

The document contains exercises on probability, including multiple-choice questions and written problems related to various probability concepts such as independent events, conditional probabilities, and sample spaces. It covers scenarios involving coin flips, dice rolls, and real-world applications related to disease testing and demographic data. The exercises aim to test understanding of probability theory and its applications.

Uploaded by

vugiahuy010607
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Exercise on Probability

October 2, 2024

1 Multiple choices questions


1. If A and B are mutually exclusive events and P (A ∪ B) ̸= 0 then which
one of the following is true?
P (A) P (A)
A. P (A|A ∪ B) = C. P (A|A ∪ B) ≥
P (A) + P (B) P (A) + P (B)
P (A) P (A)
B. P (A|A ∪ B) ≤ D. P (A|A ∪ B) =
P (A) + P (B) P (A) − P (B)

2. Which one of the following is true?

A. P (A∩B c ) = P (B)−P (A∪B) C. P (A∩B c ) = P (B)−P (A∩B)


B. P (A∩B c ) = P (A)−P (A∩B) D. P (A ∩ B c ) = P (A) + P (B c )

3. Let A and B be two events associated with an experiment and suppose


P (A) = 0.5 while P (A ∪ B) = 0.8. For what value of P (B), A and B
are independent?

A. 3/5 C. 8/5
B. 2/5 D. None of these

4. If A and B are two independent events, then P (Ā ∩ B̄) is equal to

1
A. P (Ā)P (B̄) C. (1 − P (A)) (1 − P (B))
B. 1 − P (A ∪ B) D. All of these

5. If A and B are two independent events, then

A. P (A|B) = P (A|B c ) C. P (Ac |B c ) = P (A|B)


B. P (A|B) = P (Ac |B) D. P (A) = P (B)

6. If A and B are independent, consider the statements:


i) A and B c are independent
ii) Ac and B are independent
iii) Ac and B c are independent

A. Only i) and ii) are true C. All i), ii), iii) are true
B. Only i) is true D. Only iii) is true

7. If A and B are two independent events, then P (A ∪ B) equals to

A. P (A)P (B) + P (B) C. P (Ac )P (B c ) + P (B)


B. P (A)P (B c ) + P (B) D. P (A) + P (B)

8. Suppose we have three bags that each contain 100 marbles:


• Bag 1 has 75 red and 25 blue marbles;
• Bag 2 has 60 red and 40 blue marbles;
• Bag 3 has 45 red and 55 blue marbles.
Choose one of the bags at random and then pick a marble from the
chosen bag, also at random. What is the probability that the chosen
marble is red?

A. 1/3 C. 60%
B. 50% D. 1/4

9. Consider again Question 8. Suppose we observe that the chosen marble


is red. What is the probability that Bag 1 was chosen?

2
A. 5/12 C. 7/12
B. 6/12 D. 8/12

10. A certain disease affects about 1 out of 10000 people. There is a test to
check whether the person has the disease. The test is quite accurate.
In particular, we know that

• the probability that the test result is positive (suggesting the per-
son has the disease), given that the person does not have the
disease, is only 2 percent;
• the probability that the test result is negative (suggesting the
person does not have the disease), given that the person has the
disease, is only 1 percent.

A random person gets tested for the disease and the result comes back
positive. What is the probability that the person has the disease?

A. 0.39% C. 0.59%
B. 0.49% D. 0.69%

2 Written and Excel question


1. The results of three flips of a fair coin are observed. Consider the
following events:

– A: At least two heads are observed


– B: Exactly one tail is observed
– C: Exactly two tails are observed

a. Define an appropriate sample space S for this experiment.


b. Assign probabilities to the outcomes in S.
c. Find P (A), P (B), P (B ∩ C), P (A ∩ B), P (B|A).
d. Is there a pair of independent events among A, B and C?
e. Is there a pair of mutually exclusive events among A, B and C?

3
2. Two six-sided dice are rolled, and the number of spots turning up on
each is observed. Find the probability of each of the following:

a. Observing three spots on one die and five spots on the other;
b. Observing exactly one die that has two spots showing;
c. Observing that the sum of the spots showing is seven;
d. Observing that the sum of the spots showing is eight;
e. Observing that the sum of spots showing is an even;
f. Observing that the sum of the spots showing is eight, given that
the sum is an even number.
g. Define the event
∗ A: The sum of the spots showing is two, three or twelve.
∗ B: The sum of the spots showing is an even number.
Are A and B independent events? Explain.

3. Randomly select one observation (row) from the data set ”HocVienCao-
Hoc 100” yielding a simple event related to one student. Concerning
values of the two variables Gioitinh and Tacduong, we define the
following event:

– A = {observation is of a male student},


– B1 = {observation has value of Tacduong less than 3},
– B2 = {observation has value of Tacduong less than 4},

Please calculate the probabilities P (A), P (Ac ), P (B1 ), P (B2 ), P (A ∩


B1 ), P (A ∪ B1 ), P (A ∩ B2 ), P (A|B1 ), P (A|B2 ). Are A and B2 inde-
pendent events?

4. Randomly select one observation (row) from the data set ”Suckhoe-
TreEm100” yielding a simple event related to one child. Concerning
values of the two variables Tinh and gioitinht, we define the following
event:

– A = {observation is of a boy},
– B1 = {observation is of a child from Quang Ninh province},
– B2 = {observation is of a child from Dien Bien province},

4
Please calculate the probabilities P (A), P (Ac ), P (B1 ), P (B2 ), P (A ∩
B1 ), P (A ∪ B1 ), P (A ∩ (B1 ∪ B2 )), P (A|B1 ), P (A|(B1 ∪ B2 )). Are A
and B1 ∪ B2 independent events?

5. Randomly select one observation (row) from the data set ”Tracnghiemhs100”
yielding a simple event related to one student. Concerning values of the
two variables gioitinh and hocluc10, we define the following event:
Academic performance in 10th grade (1=verygood; 2=good; 3=aver-
age; 4=poor)

– A = {observation is of a female},
– B1 = {observation is of a student with very good academic per-
formance in 10th grade},
– B2 = {observation is of a student with good or very good academic
performance in 10th grade},

Please calculate the probabilities P (A), P (Ac ), P (B1 ), P (B2 ), P (A ∩


B1 ), P (A ∪ B1 ), P (A ∩ B2 ), P (A|B1 ), P (A|B2 ). Are A and B2 inde-
pendent events?

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