Comparative analysis of deep learning algorithms for student performance prediction across different machine learning models
Comparative analysis of deep learning algorithms for student performance prediction across different machine learning models
understand how different factors influence students' academic success. Machine learning
algorithms, including Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector
Machines (SVM), have been widely used in this domain. In this analysis, we compare these
algorithms based on their strengths and weaknesses for student performance prediction.
The rapid development of information technology (IT) has greatly increased the amount of
data in different institutions. Huge warehouses contain a wealth of data and constitute a
valuable information goldmine (Hashim et al., 2020). This dramatic inflation in the amount of
data in institutions has not kept pace with the efficient ways of investing these data. Thus, a
new challenge has recently emerged, that is, transitioning from traditional databases that store
and search for information only through questions asked by a researcher to techniques used in
extracting knowledge by exploring prevailing patterns of data for decision making, planning
Every year, educational centers, schools, universities, and institutes admit many students in
different fields with various grades and performance capability. Recently in educational areas
for studying and teaching performance enhancement, data mining and other techniques
become well known. With huge amount of data in diverse technological areas, and generating
such kinds of data rapidly, there is a needs for proper usage (Rastrollo-Guerrero et al., 2020).
During the last few years, the application of artificial intelligence in education has grown
exponentially, spurred by the fact that it allows the discovery of new, interesting and useful
knowledge about students (Chitti et al., 2020). Advising students on their class performance
and motivating them in other to improve on their performance is an integral part of every
institution. Improving student’s academic performance is not an easy task for the academic
community of higher learning. As students’ behaviors are important factors that can reflect
their learning styles and living habits in institution, extracting useful features of them plays a
helpful role in understanding the students’ learning process, which is an important step
Forecasting student performance is essential for educators to obtain early feedback and take
(Mengash, 2020). This prediction can be managed by locating the source of the problem.
Should it be from extra activities that the student is participating in, family problems, or
health problems? All these factors can have a major effect on student performance (Sathe &
Adamuthe, 2021). There is often a great need to be able to predict future students’ behavior in
order to improve curriculum design and plan interventions for academic support and guidance
Student academic performance serves as a metric through which individuals can track their
objectives and criteria, utilizing diverse standards such as GPA (Grade Point Average). The
GPA is the basis for studies on academic performance, which used as a tool to simplify a set
and future possibilities. Developing models that predict elementary children’s academic
improve the learning process and offer corrective measures. More sophisticated techniques
are required since conventional methods of assessment and prediction fail to capture the
called deep learning has demonstrated incredible ability in several fields of study. Its use to
predict academic achievement in elementary school kids provides the possibility of more
precise and insights based on data(Deng et al., 2024). Hence, the multi-class models need
are commonly applied while more advanced techniques like deep learning are rarely applied.
Since the majority of studies have taken the approach of developing predictive models that
target specific courses, but overfitting can take place if new courses are devised(Al-azazi &
Ghurab, 2023).
Thus, analyzing and processing these data carefully can give a useful information about the
students’ knowledge and the relationship between them and the academic tasks. This
information is the source that feeds promising algorithms and methods, to be able to predict
students’ performance. Hence, this research work proposed a comparison evaluation of the
following supervised learning algorithms; Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN),
and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for student performance predictions. In other, to know
valuable insights into the factors influencing academic success, allowing for timely
interventions to support students. With the rapid growth of information technology (IT),
educational institutions are generating vast amounts of data, which, if effectively analyzed,
However, the sheer volume of data has outpaced the development of efficient tools for its
analysis, creating a need to transition from traditional data storage and retrieval methods to
more advanced techniques that can extract meaningful knowledge from prevailing patterns in
Deep learning algorithms, such as Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and
Support Vector Machines (SVM), have gained significant attention for their potential in
However, comparative studies that systematically evaluate these algorithms in the context of
educational data are limited. Existing predictive models often suffer from challenges such as
interpretability (Sathe & Adamuthe, 2021). These issues are exacerbated in diverse
educational environments, where student demographics, curricula, and external factors vary
significantly.
Traditional assessment methods, such as Grade Point Average (GPA), provide only a narrow
view of student performance and fail to account for the multifaceted factors influencing
academic success, such as behavioral patterns, health issues, or family challenges (Laakel
identifying at-risk students early and providing tailored interventions to improve learning
outcomes. However, current models do not sufficiently address the complexities of academic
performance across different educational contexts, particularly in online learning and higher
This study aims to fill the gap in the existing literature by comparing the effectiveness of
three widely used deep learning algorithms—Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors
analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of these models, the research seeks to identify the
most suitable algorithm for predicting student success across various educational settings.
The findings will contribute to the development of more robust, interpretable, and
generalizable predictive models, which can enhance personalized learning interventions and
The aim of this research work is to develop and compare the following deep learning
algorithms; Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machines
(SVM) for student performance prediction and determine the best fit model among them.
i. To developed and train models using the following deep learning algorithms;
Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machines
ii. To compared the developed models and determine the best fit model among them.
This study focuses on the development and comparison of three deep learning algorithms—
Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machines (SVM)—for
predicting student performance in educational settings. The scope of this research is confined
to the application of these algorithms to datasets that contain information on various factors
i. The research will involve the development and training of predictive models using
Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machines
(SVM). These models will be built using student data available from educational
institutions, which may include data such as grades, attendance, study habits, and
ii. A major focus of this study is the comparative evaluation of the three algorithms in
terms of their ability to predict student performance accurately and reliably. The study
will compare the strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm, particularly in terms of
iii. The study will primarily focus on traditional classroom settings and Virtual Learning
contexts. This will help in understanding how well the algorithms generalize to
iv. The evaluation of the models will use key performance metrics such as accuracy,
precision, recall, F1 score, and confusion matrix analysis. These metrics will provide
insights into the predictive power of each model, particularly in identifying students at
risk of underperforming.
v. The findings of this research will contribute to the development of predictive models
educators with insights that can help them identify at-risk students early, design
The accuracy and effectiveness of the deep learning models developed in this study are
heavily dependent on the quality and comprehensiveness of the student data available. The
study will rely on existing datasets that may be limited in scope or completeness, potentially
impacting the robustness of the results. Missing data, inconsistent records, or inaccuracies in
the data could introduce biases or reduce the generalizability of the models. The study is
limited to the analysis of three specific deep learning algorithms—Decision Tree (DT), k-
Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machines (SVM)—and may not account for
other deep learning techniques, such as deep learning models or ensemble methods, which
could offer improved prediction performance. As such, the findings of the study may not be
applicable to other deep learning algorithms or advanced techniques not explored in this
research.
The performance of the deep learning algorithms depends heavily on the features selected
from the available data. This study will be limited to the features included in the dataset and
may not explore the potential impact of additional features or more sophisticated data
preprocessing techniques. Moreover, the choice of feature engineering methods and data
transformations could influence model performance, limiting the potential for exploring more
advanced or customized approaches. Each of the deep learning algorithms used in this study
has inherent strengths and weaknesses. For instance, Decision Trees may suffer from
overfitting when not properly tuned, k-Nearest Neighbors may struggle with high-
dimensional data, and Support Vector Machines require careful tuning of hyperparameters for
optimal performance. These limitations may impact the results, and the study may not
explore all possible ways to mitigate these challenges (e.g., hyperparameter tuning, feature
scaling, or model ensembling). The dataset used in this study may not capture the full
diversity of student populations, which can vary significantly across different regions,
cultural backgrounds, and educational systems. As a result, the predictive models may not
behavioral data, such as health conditions, family issues, and socio-economic background.
This study will focus on the data available within the datasets, which may not fully account
for these external factors. Consequently, the predictive models may not capture the full
Although efforts will be made to avoid overfitting, the nature of deep learning models,
especially when trained on small or imbalanced datasets, may still lead to overfitting issues.
Additionally, while Decision Trees are relatively interpretable, k-Nearest Neighbors and
Support Vector Machines can be more challenging to interpret, which may hinder their
educators and administrators. The study will evaluate the models using standard performance
metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. However, there are other
performance metrics that may provide deeper insights into the effectiveness of the models,
such as ROC curves, AUC scores, or cost-sensitive evaluation. The use of a limited set of
metrics may restrict the comprehensive evaluation of the models’ performance across
different contexts.
students. This study is justified by several key factors that highlight the importance of
exploring deep learning algorithms in the context of student performance prediction. With the
vast amounts of data. This data, if effectively analyzed, has the potential to unlock valuable
insights about student behaviors, learning patterns, and academic performance. However, the
traditional methods of analyzing this data, such as GPA and basic assessments, are
techniques provide a more efficient and effective approach to harnessing this data and
performance metrics, such as Grade Point Average (GPA), fail to account for the myriad of
family situations, and health issues. These methods provide a narrow view of performance
and cannot predict future outcomes with high accuracy. By applying machine learning
algorithms to student data, this study aims to develop more nuanced and accurate models that
can predict student performance and identify at-risk students early, facilitating timely
interventions and support. While deep learning algorithms such as Decision Trees (DT), k-
Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) have been applied in
these algorithms based on their strengths and weaknesses for student performance prediction.
This study aims to fill this gap by evaluating and comparing these three popular algorithms,
offering valuable insights into which one is best suited for different educational
environments. By systematically comparing these models, the study will provide a clearer
more informed decisions regarding course offerings, teaching strategies, and academic
support services. By identifying patterns and correlations in student data, the study will
provide insights that can enhance decision-making processes at the institutional level,
ensuring that academic programs are aligned with students' needs and enhancing overall
institutional effectiveness. The comparative analysis conducted in this study will not only
identify the most effective algorithm for student performance prediction but will also offer
insights into how these algorithms can be adapted and scaled to different educational settings.
institutions, the findings from this study can be applied to a wide range of contexts, providing
educators with a flexible tool that can be customized to suit diverse student populations and
institutional needs.
Educational data mining (EDM) is a rapidly evolving field that seeks to apply data-driven
techniques to improve education systems. This study will contribute to the field by evaluating
providing a foundation for further research in this area. By advancing the understanding of
how machine learning models can be utilized in educational contexts, the study will
contribute to the broader goal of using data to improve educational outcomes on a global
scale. Despite the growing interest in applying deep learning to education, there remains a
predicting student performance. This study will fill this research gap, offering a
comprehensive comparison of three widely used algorithms (DT, KNN, and SVM) and
helping to inform future research and the development of more effective predictive models in
education.
1.7 Definition of Terms
i. Academic Performance:
through grades, test scores, and other indicators of learning success (Chaurasia & Pal,
2020).
A supervised deep learning algorithm that models decisions and their possible
predicts the output of a new data point based on the 'k' closest data points in the
A supervised learning algorithm that finds the optimal hyperplane to separate data
points of different classes, maximizing the margin between them for improved
A scenario in machine learning where a model learns the training data too well,
including noise and irrelevant details, leading to poor performance on new, unseen
An online platform that supports teaching and learning by offering tools for content
Refers to the various settings in which learning takes place, including traditional
classrooms, online environments, and hybrid models (Romero & Ventura, 2020).
x. Demographic Data:
status, and other relevant attributes, used to analyze their impact on academic
xi. Generalizability:
The extent to which a machine learning model or study findings can be applied to new
datasets, educational settings, or populations beyond the original scope (Zhang et al.,
2016).
delivers results, considering the resources (time and memory) required (Kotsiantis et
al., 2007).
xiii. Interpretability:
development, often tied to the attainment of educational goals (Chaurasia & Pal,
2020).
This project is systematically organized into five chapters to ensure clarity and coherence in
presenting the study’s objectives, methods, findings, and conclusions. Below is an overview
of the structure:
This chapter provides an overview of the study, including the background, problem
statement, aim, and objectives. It also outlines the scope, limitations, justification, and
significance of the study. Key definitions of terms are also included to ensure conceptual
clarity.
This chapter reviews relevant literature on student performance prediction and machine
algorithms such as Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector
Machines (SVM), and their applications in educational research. Additionally, this chapter
identifies research gaps and highlights the need for comparative analysis of these algorithms
objectives. It describes the datasets used, including the academic and demographic variables,
and the preprocessing techniques applied. The chapter also explains the implementation of
DT, KNN, and SVM algorithms, their evaluation metrics (e.g., accuracy, interpretability,
This chapter presents the findings of the study, including the predictive performance of each
algorithm on the datasets analyzed. The strengths and weaknesses of DT, KNN, and SVM are
generalizability. The results are discussed in relation to existing literature, and the
The final chapter summarizes the key findings of the study and draws conclusions based on
the evaluation of the machine learning algorithms. Recommendations are provided for the
most suitable algorithm(s) for predicting student performance in various educational settings.
This chapter also outlines suggestions for future research, including the exploration of
advanced techniques such as ensemble models, deep learning, and hybrid approaches.
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
This chapter aims to synthesize key findings from previous research, focusing on the
application of Decision Trees (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector
Machines (SVM) for predicting student performance, as well as exploring the challenges and
opportunities these algorithms present. The review begins by exploring the role of data in
education, discussing the rapid increase in the volume and complexity of student-related data
due to advances in information technology. It then examines how deep learning models are
being utilized to analyze this data and provide predictive insights into student performance.
Specifically, it highlights the strengths and limitations of the three deep learning algorithms
under investigation in this study—DT, KNN, and SVM—drawing on a wide range of studies
According to (Deng et al., 2024) It addresses that the essential need for predictive algorithms
to analyze and forecast academic results. Self-esteem and identity, as diverse psychological
variables, have been highlighted as crucial determinants in creating academic success. The
fundamental goal is to develop an effective prediction model for elementary school children’s
framework. The architecture and parameters of the suggested approaches are optimized using
the OSO algorithm to provide a prediction model that remains accurate and efficient. The
time. This helps instructors make in-time interventions but, discovering the students’
constraints. Many studies, which applied to Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) datasets,
built predictive models but, these models were applied to specific courses and students and
classify students into binary classes. Additionally, the results of ANN-LSTM were compared
with the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy. The results show that the ANN-LSTM
model obtained the best results among baseline models (Al-azazi & Ghurab, 2023).
However, (C. Wang et al., 2024) said It is challenging for teachers to monitor each student’s
emotion recognition methods, such as support vector machines, are limited by technology and
fail to meet practical application requirements. However, the development of deep learning
technology offers new solutions for facial expression recognition, which makes emotional
interaction and personalized support in education possible. Until now, there has been a lack
of facial expression datasets in real classroom settings. This dataset provides a reliable
foundation for future research and applications in educational technology, particularly in the
teaching effectiveness.
Also, (W. Wang, 2024) stated that the problem of automatic detection in art teaching
classroom behavior, the research combines the YOLOv5 algorithm in the deep learning
algorithm and adds a two-way feature information pyramid function with weighting
capability to the neck part of the algorithm to achieve performance-based algorithm improve
ment. This research prunes and optimizes the model for the campus technology
implementation problem to improve the robustness and ease of implementation of the model.
The model is designed in line with the model of the art teaching classroom behavior training
set, and the applied experimental method is adopted for analysis. There fore, the research-
designed classroom behavior detection and analysis model for art teaching can effectively
detect the types of classroom behaviors of students in the process of art teaching with
excellent performance, providing an effective way to ensure the quality of student learning in
classroom teaching.
However, the education sector currently faces several challenges, including the subjectivity
of evaluation methods, uniformity of data, and a lack of real-time feedback. This study aims
Neural Networks (CNNs), to accurately assess and enhance the quality of university teaching.
In contrast to traditional teaching quality assessment methods, which often lack rigor and
integrating deep learning algorithms, the study seeks to improve the objectivity and accuracy
methodologies. This study not only addresses a gap in the field by utilizing multi-source data
for comprehensive evaluation but also validates the effectiveness of deep learning models in
assessing teaching quality. Additionally, the study provides a foundation for developing
Additionally, In the era of knowledge economy, social development has higher requirements
for artistic talents’ quality. The teaching mode of music and dance in colleges and
universities needs to be changed urgently. This study introduced deep learning theory and
designed a SPOC teaching mode for music and dance in universities to improve the quality of
music and dance teaching. Firstly, the K-means clustering algorithm was used to extract the
features of online learning behavior. Radial basis function neural network was used to predict
Subsequently, the teaching quality evaluation system was constructed using hierarchical
analysis. This indicates that the teaching mode gives full play to the advantages of SPOC
teaching, enhances students’ enthusiasm and initiative in learning, and improves their
As the researchers (Ren & Wu, 2023) said, the analysis of learning interactions during online
studying is a necessary task for designing online courses and sequencing key interactions,
which enables online learning platforms to provide users with more efficient and personalized
service. However, the research on predicting the interaction itself is not sufficient and the
temporal information of interaction sequences hasn’t been fully investigated. To fill in this
gap, based on the interaction data collected from Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs),
this paper aims to simultaneously predict a user’s next interaction and the occurrence time to
that interaction. Three different neural network models: the long short-term memory, the
recurrent marked temporal point process, and the event recurrent point process, are applied
on the MOOC interaction dataset. It concludes that taking the correlation between the user
action and its occurrence time into consideration can greatly improve the model performance,
and that the prediction results are conducive to exploring dropout rates or online learning
Meanwhile, with the advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the increasing volume of
online educational data, Deep Learning techniques have played a critical role in predicting
strengths and weaknesses of student achievement. This understanding will benefit from
helping at-risk of failure students, and preventing dropout rates. The educational prediction
findings hopefully serve as a strong foundation for administrators and instructors to observe
student performance and provide a suitable educational adaptation that can meet their needs
to protect them from failure and prevent their dropout(Alnasyan et al., 2024).
2.3 Student Performance
subjects. Teachers and education officials typically measure achievement using classroom
performance, graduation rates and results from standardized tests (Konold et al., 2018). Also
Student performance is the extent to which a student, teacher or institution has attained their
secondary school diplomas and bachelor's degrees represent academic achievement (PB &
AV, 2020).
The Student performance is defined by students’ reporting of past semester CGPA/GPA and
their expected GPA for the current semester. The grade point average or GPA is now used by
performance of their students (Lwin, 2019). The GPA is a better measurement because it
provides a greater insight into the relative level of performance of individuals and different
group of students.
assessments but there is no general agreement on how it is best evaluated or which aspects
are most important, procedural knowledge such as skills or declarative knowledge such
as facts. Furthermore, there are inconclusive results over which individual factors
in intelligence and personality. Students with higher mental ability as demonstrated tend to
achieve highly in academic settings. A recent meta-analysis suggested that mental curiosity
learning environment when children start first grade. Early academic achievement enhances
Parent's academic socialization is a term describing the way parents influence students'
academic achievement by shaping students' skills, behaviors and attitudes towards school.
Parents influence students through the environment and discourse parents have with their
educated parents tend to have more stimulating learning environments. Further, recent
research indicates that the relationship quality with parents will influence the development of
academic self-efficacy among adolescent-aged children, which will in turn affect their
Studies have shown that physical activity can increase neural activity in the brain, specifically
increasing executive brain functions such as attention span and working memory and improve
academic performance in both elementary school children and college freshmen (Lu et al.,
2018).
Non-cognitive factors or skills, are a set of "attitudes, behaviors, and strategies" that promotes
expectancy and goal setting theories, emotional intelligence, and determination.. The term
serves as a distinction of cognitive factors, which are measured by teachers through tests and
quizzes. Non-cognitive skills are increasingly gaining popularity because they provide a
better explanation for academic and professional outcomes (Tepper & Yourstone, 2018).
2.4.3 Self-efficacy
Self-efficacy is one of the best predictors of academic success. Self-efficacy is the belief of
being able to do something. (Hayat et al., 2020) looked at the Big Five traits on academic
success as well and saw that conscientiousness and emotional stability were predictors of
self-efficacy in over half of their analyses. However, self-efficacy was more indicative of
academic performance than personality in all of the analyses. This suggests that parents who
want their children to have academic achievement can look to increase their child's sense of
self-efficacy at school.
2.4.4 Motivation
Motivation is the reasoning behind an individual's actions. Research has found that students
with higher academic performance, motivation and persistence use intrinsic goals rather than
extrinsic ones (Bal-Ta\cstan et al., 2018). Furthermore, students who are motivated to
improve upon their previous or upcoming performance tend to perform better academically
than peers with lower motivation. In other words, students with higher need for achievement
2.4.5 Self-control
gratification and impulse control. (Džinović et al., 2019) defined self-control as "the capacity
for altering one's own responses, especially to bring them into line with standards such as
ideals, values, morals, and social expectations, and to support the attainment of long-term
goals. In other words, self-control is the ability to prioritize long-term goals over the
High locus of control, where an individual attributes success to personal decision making and
et al., 2019).
with high academic performance including increasing attendance rates, school engagement,
GPA, postsecondary education, as well as a decrease in dropout rates and depression (Pinto &
He, 2019) . Additionally, positive developmental outcomes have been found in youth that
engage in organized extracurricular activities. High school athletics have been linked with
athletics has been linked to increased alcohol consumption and abuse for high school students
that 'learn', that is, methods that leverage data to improve performance on some set of tasks
build a model based on sample data, known as training data, in order to make predictions or
decisions without being explicitly programmed to do so. Machine learning algorithms are
making predictions using computers, but not all machine learning is statistical learning. The
study of mathematical optimization delivers methods, theory and application domains to the
field of machine learning. Data mining is a related field of study, focusing on exploratory
data analysis through unsupervised learning. Some implementations of machine learning use
data and neural networks in a way that mimics the working of a biological brain (Athey,
2018). In its application across business problems, machine learning is also referred to
Machine learning approaches are traditionally divided into three broad categories, which
Supervised learning algorithms build a mathematical model of a set of data that contains both
the inputs and the desired outputs. The data is known as training data, and consists of a set of
training examples. Each training example has one or more inputs and the desired output, also
known as a supervisory signal (Pant et al., 2020). In the mathematical model, each training
example is represented by an array or vector, sometimes called a feature vector, and the
optimization of an objective function, supervised learning algorithms learn a function that can
be used to predict the output associated with new inputs (Gabruseva et al., 2020). An optimal
function will allow the algorithm to correctly determine the output for inputs that were not a
part of the training data. An algorithm that improves the accuracy of its outputs or predictions
over time is said to have learned to perform that task (Hashmi et al., 2020). Types of
Classification algorithms are used when the outputs are restricted to a limited set of values,
and regression algorithms are used when the outputs may have any numerical value within a
range (Tang et al.,2022) . As an example, for a classification algorithm that filters emails, the
input would be an incoming email, and the output would be the name of the folder in which
Unsupervised learning algorithms take a set of data that contains only inputs, and find
structure in the data, like grouping or clustering of data points. The algorithms, therefore,
learn from test data that has not been labeled, classified or categorized. Instead of responding
to feedback, unsupervised learning algorithms identify commonalities in the data and react
based on the presence or absence of such commonalities in each new piece of data. A central
finding the probability density function. Though unsupervised learning encompasses other
domains involving summarizing and explaining data features (James et al., 2021)
Cluster analysis is the assignment of a set of observations into subsets (called clusters) so that
observations within the same cluster are similar according to one or more predesigned
criteria, while observations drawn from different clusters are dissimilar. Different clustering
techniques make different assumptions on the structure of the data, often defined by
some similarity metric and evaluated, for example, by internal compactness, or the similarity
between members of the same cluster, and separation, the difference between clusters. Other
methods are based on estimated density and graph connectivity (Ullah et al., 2021).
Semi-supervised learning falls between unsupervised learning (without any labeled training
data) and supervised learning (with completely labeled training data). Some of the training
examples are missing training labels, yet many machine-learning reseachers have found that
unlabeled data, when used in conjunction with a small amount of labeled data, can produce a
reward. Due to its generality, the field is studied in many other disciplines, such as game
knowledge of an exact mathematical model of the MDP, and are used when exact models are
resemble the human brain. Through a training procedure, these representations are learned.
To teach the software how to detect an object, we must first train it with a large number of
algorithms, on average, require a large amount of training data and take longer to train than
traditional machine learning methods. Finding unique attributes when trying to recognise any
learning, where features are manually retrieved, problems can be solved using deep learning
network with multiple hidden layers is known as deep learning. They may build complicated
notions from simple concepts after an image has been taught over the network. By integrating
simple elements such as shape, edges, and corners, an image can be trained in the network to
learn items such as characters, faces, and so on. As the image travels through the layers, each
one gets a simple property while moving on to the next. As the layers grow larger, the
network may learn more complex features and eventually merge them to identify the image.
In the field of computer vision, deep learning has discovered a bunch of use. The domains
that work with facial data were among the most important computer vision applications.
Deep learning neural networks, or artificial neural networks, attempts to mimic the human
brain through a combination of data inputs, weights, and bias. These elements work together
to accurately recognize, classify, and describe objects within the data (Kelleher, 2019). Deep
neural networks consist of multiple layers of interconnected nodes, each building upon the
previous layer to refine and optimize the prediction or categorization. This progression of
computations through the network is called forward propagation. The input and output layers
of a deep neural network are called visible layers. The input layer is where the deep learning
model ingests the data for processing, and the output layer is where the final prediction or
classification is made.
Another process called backpropagation uses algorithms, like gradient descent, to calculate
errors in predictions and then adjusts the weights and biases of the function by moving
backwards through the layers in an effort to train the model. Together, forward propagation
and backpropagation allow a neural network to make predictions and correct for any errors
accordingly. Over time, the algorithm becomes gradually more accurate (Nikolenko et al.,
2018).
Most deep learning methods use neural network architectures, which is why deep learning
models are often referred to as deep neural networks. The term “deep” usually refers to the
number of hidden layers in the neural network. Traditional neural networks only contain 2-3
hidden layers, while deep networks can have as many as 150. Deep learning models are
trained by using large sets of labeled data and neural network architectures that learn features
directly from the data without the need for manual feature extraction (Kelleher, 2019).
2.6.2 MobileNetV2
mobile devices. It is based on an inverted residual structure where the residual connections
are between the bottleneck layers. The intermediate expansion layer uses lightweight
As a whole, the architecture of MobileNetV2 contains the initial fully convolution layer with
introduced with inverted residual structure. Non-linearities in narrow layers are removed this
time (Jabbar et al., 2020). With MobileNetV2 as backbone for feature extraction, state-of-the-
art performances are also achieved for object detection and semantic segmentation as shown
in figure 1.
Figure 1: MobileNetV2 Architecture. Source: (Jabbar et al., 2020)
MobileNetV2 is a significant improvement over MobileNetV1 and pushes the state of the art
for mobile visual recognition including classification, object detection and semantic
Image Classification Library, or you can start exploring MobileNetV2 right away in
Colaboratory. MobileNetV2 builds upon the ideas from MobileNetV1, using depthwise
separable convolution as efficient building blocks. However, V2 introduces two new features
to the architecture: 1) linear bottlenecks between the layers, and 2) shortcut connections
The figure 2 above, state the overview of MobileNetV2 Architecture. Blue blocks represent
composite convolutional building blocks as shown above. The intuition is that the bottlenecks
encode the model’s intermediate inputs and outputs while the inner layer encapsulates the
model’s ability to transform from lower-level concepts such as pixels to higher level
A CNN (convolutional neural network) is a kind of artificial neural network that is commonly
used for image or object identification and categorization. Using a CNN, Deep Learning
recognises items in an image. An input layer, hidden layers, and an output layer are all part of
a standard neural network. The anatomy of the brain inspired CNNs. Artificial neurons or
nodes in CNNs collect inputs, process them, and deliver the result as output, rather like a
neuron inside the brain functions and transmits signals between cells. The images are used as
a source of data. Multiple hidden layers may exist in CNNs, each of which performs feature
extraction from the image by performing calculations. The very first layer that extracts
feature out of an input image is convolution. The object is classified and identified in the
output layer by the fully connected layer. The convolutional layer is the most important
sources of data. Gender estimation from social image collection, images that do not require
access to private details of the subject areas that are not displayed in the images, such as their
birth date, and the usual approach that includes the collection of other information about an
individual and on the basis about which we discover gender on manually handled annotated
data for gender recognition. That is why we use D-CNN, which works directly on images and
In the field of artificial intelligence, CNNs are a kind of ‘Deep Neural Network’ (DNN) that
can identify and categorize certain aspects in pictures and are commonly used to
analyse visual data. Its uses span from video and picture identification to image
classification, image analysis in medicine, and computer vision and natural language
processing. When two functions are multiplied together, the result is a third function that
reflects how the form of one function is altered by the other. Multiplying two matrices
representable photos produces an output from which features from the image may be
Feature Extraction is a convolution technique that separates and identifies the image’s
distinct features for analysis. Convolution output is fed into a fully connected layer that uses
the information gathered in earlier rounds to forecast the image’s class. The CNN has three
layers: “convolutional, pooling, and fully-connected (FC) layers.” When these layers are put
The input pictures are initially processed via a convolutional layer, which is utilized to
extract different characteristics. The input picture is processed by this layer, which extracts
characteristics from it. This layer contains the picture matrix and the kernel/filter that extracts
the image's features. It is possible to get an image feature map of dimension (a-(fh+1), b-
(fw+1),1)) from an image matrix of volume (a). In this layer, the convolution of the input
picture with a filter of a certain size is carried out. Dot products are calculated by multiplying
pixel size. We get information about the image's corners and edges from this layer's output,
which is called a Feature map. Afterwards, this ‘feature map’ is supplied to further layers in
In order to decrease the algorithm's computing costs, this layer aims to reduce the size of the
'convolved feature map.' When the photos, like those we used in the project, are too huge,
the pooling layer decreases the number of parameters or blocks in the feature matrix.
Sum Pooling: The total of the components in the filter is gathered in a pool called the sum
pooling.
The pooled feature map was created using Max Pooling for this project. The biggest element
Machine learning algorithms have become indispensable tools for analyzing and predicting
student performance. Among these, Decision Trees (DT), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and
Support Vector Machines (SVM) stand out for their unique strengths and limitations. Each
algorithm offers different approaches to handling data, and their effectiveness varies
depending on the nature of the dataset and the specific application. Below is a comparison of
these three algorithms based on their functionality, performance, and suitability for
Decision Trees are widely recognized for their simplicity and interpretability. They classify
data by creating a tree-like model of decisions based on the features of the dataset. The
algorithm splits the data iteratively at decision nodes using criteria such as Gini impurity or
information gain. DTs provide clear and easily interpretable rules, making them useful for
KNN is a simple, instance-based algorithm that classifies data by identifying the closest
training samples (neighbors) in the feature space (Cover & Hart, 1967). The algorithm
assigns a class based on the majority class among the k-nearest neighbors. KNN requires
storing the entire dataset and recalculating distances for every query, which makes it
SVM is a powerful supervised learning algorithm that finds the optimal hyperplane to
separate classes in the feature space. It uses a kernel trick to handle both linear and non-linear
data effectively. SVM requires careful tuning of parameters such as the kernel type,
regularization parameter (C), and gamma (for non-linear kernels), which can make it
However, (Sudais & Asad, 2022) ensure better comparison, by applying both Support Vector
Machine algorithm and K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm on the dataset to predict the student’s
grade and then compared their accuracy. Empirical studies outcome indicated that Support
Vector Machine achieved slightly better results with correlation coefficient of 0.96, while the
Furthermore, (Rastrollo-Guerrero et al., 2020) in their study, almost 70 papers were analyzed
to show different modern techniques widely applied for predicting students’ performance,
together with the objectives they must reach in this field. These techniques and methods,
which pertain to the area of Artificial Intelligence, are mainly Machine Learning,
others.
Also, (Chitti et al., 2020) in their study reviews EDM focusing on the factors influencing
student's predictions, various algorithms used, and identified the gaps. The study also gives
an insight into how the “black-box” decisions of the prediction model are made, the role of
various explainable AI (XAI) techniques in making the model results interpretable, and their
related to identifying student dropouts and students at risk from 2009 to 2021 is reviewed.
The review results indicated that various Machine Learning (ML) techniques are used to
understand and overcome the underlying challenges; predicting students at risk and students
drop out prediction. Moreover, most studies use two types of datasets: data from student
play essential roles in predicting students at risk and dropout rates, thus improving the
students’ performance.
Furthermore, (Ghorbani & Ghousi, 2020) proposed the Random hold-out and Shuffle 5-fold
cross-validation methods are used as model validation techniques. They achieved results
using different evaluation metrics indicate that fewer numbers of classes and nominal features
will lead models to better performance. Also, classifiers do not perform well with imbalanced
data, so solving this problem is necessary. The performance of classifiers is improved using
balanced datasets. Additionally, the results of the Friedman test, which is a statistical
significance test, confirm that the SVM-SMOTE is more efficient than the other resampling
methods. Moreover, The Random Forest classifier has achieved the best result among all
In their paper, (Sathe & Adamuthe, 2021) presents investigation of application of C5.0, J48,
CART, Naïve Bayes (NB), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Random Forest and Support Vector
Machine for prediction of students’ performance. Three datasets from school level, college
level and e-learning platform with varying input parameters are considered for comparison
between C5.0, NB, J48, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), PART, Random Forest, BayesNet, and
Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Paper presents comparative results of C5.0, J48, CART,
NB, KNN, Random forest and SVM on changing tuning parameters. The performance of
these techniques is tested on three different datasets. Results show that the performances of
Random forest and C5.0 are better than J48, CART, NB, KNN, and SVM.
admissions decision making using data mining techniques to predict applicants’ academic
performance at university. A data set of 2,039 students enrolled in a Computer Science and
Information College of a Saudi public university from 2016 to 2019 was used to validate the
proposed methodology. The results demonstrate that applicants’ early university performance
can be predicted before admission based on certain pre-admission criteria (high school grade
average, Scholastic Achievement Admission Test score, and General Aptitude Test score).
The results also show that Scholastic Achievement Admission Test score is the pre-admission
criterion that most accurately predicts future student performance. Therefore, this score
should be assigned more weight in admissions systems. They also found that the Artificial
Neural Network technique has an accuracy rate above 79%, making it superior to other
classification techniques considered (Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, and Naïve
Bayes).
In their study, (Hashim et al., 2020) compared the performances of several supervised
machine learning algorithms, such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression,
Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbour, Sequential Minimal Optimisation and Neural
Network. They trained a model by using datasets provided by courses in the bachelor study
Basra, for academic years 2017–2018 and 2018–2019 to predict student performance on final
examinations. Results indicated that logistic regression classifier is the most accurate in
predicting the exact final grades of students (68.7% for passed and 88.8% for failed).
According to (Sekeroglu et al., 2019) in their paper, two datasets have been considered for
the prediction and classification of student performance respectively using five machine
learning algorithms. Eighteen experiments have been performed and preliminary results
Also, (Tomasevic et al., 2020) provide a comprehensive analysis and comparison of state of
the art supervised machine learning techniques applied for solving the task of student exam
performance prediction, i.e. discovering students at a “high risk” of dropping out from the
course, and predicting their future achievements, such as for instance, the final exam scores.
For both classification and regression tasks, the overall highest precision was obtained with
artificial neural networks by feeding the student engagement data and past performance data,
while the usage of demographic data did not show significant influence on the precision of
predictions. To exploit the full potential of the student exam performance prediction, it was
concluded that adequate data acquisition functionalities and the student interaction with the
Furthermore, (X. Wang et al., 2020) stated that, due to the limited representation capability of
these manually extracted features, they can only understand the students’ behaviors
shallowly. To make the prediction process timely and automatically, they treat the
performance prediction task as a short-term sequence prediction problem, and propose a two-
consists of a sequence encoder and a classic data mining classifier. More specifically, to
deeply discover the sequential features from students’ campus behaviors, they first introduce
behaviors by giving a higher weight to the ones that are related to the students’ last action.
Then, to conduct student performance prediction, they further involve these learned features
to the classic Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm and finally achieve their SPC model.
They conduct extensive experiments in the real-world student card dataset. The experimental
results demonstrate the superiority of their proposed method in terms of Accuracy and Recall.
2.8 summary table authors, proposed topic, algorithm used, findings and limitations
2.9Research Gap
While numerous studies have made significant strides in leveraging machine learning (ML)
and deep learning (DL) techniques to predict student performance and improve educational
outcomes, several critical gaps remain unaddressed. Most existing studies focus on academic
and demographic features (e.g., past performance, learning behavior, attendance) for
psychological determinants like self-esteem and individuality, which are critical to academic
achievement, remain underexplored in prediction models. Only a few studies, such as Deng et
al. (2024), have incorporated these variables, suggesting the need for further exploration.
Many models, especially those applied to Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), provide
predictions only at the end of the course, delaying interventions (Al-azazi & Ghurab, 2023).
Real-time or day-wise prediction frameworks that enable in-time interventions are still
limited.
emotional states for personalized learning (C. Wang et al., 2024). However, the availability of
impact classifier performance (Ghorbani & Ghousi, 2020). Despite the availability of
advanced resampling methods like SVM-SMOTE, limited efforts have been made to
standardize their use across educational datasets. Current studies, such as Gao (2025), utilize
multi-source datasets (student feedback, course content, and teacher evaluations) but fail to
include diverse and comprehensive sources that encompass psychological, emotional, and
behavioral data in conjunction with academic performance. While models like YOLOv5
achieve high accuracy in classroom behavior detection for specific domains like art teaching
(W. Wang, 2024), their adaptability to other classroom settings remains unexplored.
transparency and trustworthiness (Chitti et al., 2020), limited research integrates these
techniques into predictive models for student performance, leaving a gap in interpretability
for stakeholders like educators and parents. Many studies classify student performance into
binary categories, such as "pass" or "fail" (Albreiki et al., 2021; Sathe & Adamuthe, 2021).
The absence of multi-class classification limits nuanced insights into student progress.
Although DL models like ANN, LSTM, CNN, and HRNN have demonstrated high prediction
accuracy (Alnasyan et al., 2024; X. Wang et al., 2020), their combined potential for
This is the method used in getting data for this research; the instruments used for collection of
data and the method of data analysis. It also gives an overview of the tools and techniques
employed for obtaining data. This formed the basis for the collection, analysis, interpretation,
and presentation of data for this project work. These involve: The method of study is based
on information from Internet surfing, searching for information from a library, and consulting
The Agile SDLC model is a combination of iterative and incremental process models with a
focus on process adaptability and customer satisfaction through rapid delivery of working
software products. Agile methods break the product into small incremental builds. These
builds are provided in iterations. Each iteration typically lasts from about one to three weeks
various areas like planning, requirements analysis, design, coding, unit testing, and
acceptance testing. At the end of the iteration, a working product is displayed to the customer
The Agile model believes that every project needs to be handled differently and the existing
methods need to be tailored to best suit the project requirements. In agile, the tasks are
divided into time boxes or small-time frames to deliver specific features for a release. An
iterative approach is taken and working software is delivered after each iteration. Each build
is incremental in terms of features; the final build holds all the features required by the
programming.
depending on documentation.
During the gathering of data and facts used in this project to achieve a system, the research
made involved to investigate the extent to which counterfeiting has permeated the Nigeria
economy and propose a mobile based solution which consumers can use to effectively and
information from library and also consulting of an expert on the topic concerned.
Although there are various methods of data collection, the researcher chose the two main
i. Secondary source
Primary Source refers to the sources of collecting original data in which the researcher made
use of empirical approach i.e. interview. Furthermore, the researcher adopted oral
interviewing: The interview method of data collection can be defined as a systematic way of
collecting data or information from a respondent through asking questions directly from the
respondent and also collecting information to facilitate understanding. The oral interview was
conducted between the researcher and some resource persons. Reliable facts were gotten
based on the questions posed to the research persons which help the work in the area of
solution presentation of the new design. The researcher adopts the method of unstructured
interviews.
Secondary Sources data from this kind of project cannot be overemphasized. The secondary
data was obtained from magazines, journals, newspapers and library sources. Manuals and
reports based on feedback were obtained and studied and a lot of information concerning the
system to be produced was obtained. However, secondary source data was mostly adopted in
this research, we were able to get secondary resources from various academic databases such
as Elsevier, Google Scholar, Research Gate, Science Direct, and IEEE etc.
System analysis is the process of collecting and analyzing facts. A comprehensive analysis
was carried out in order to define the requirements for designing the new system. The new
educational entities and institutes. That is essential in order to help at-risk students and assure
their retention, providing the excellent learning resources and experience, and improving the
These days the lack of existing system to analyses and judge the student’s performance and
progress is not being addressed (Tomasevic et al., 2020). There are two reasons why this is
often happening. First, the present system is not accurate to predict students‟ performance.
Second, because of shortage of consideration of some vital factor that are affecting students‟
feedback and take immediate action or early precautions if necessary to improve the student’s
performance (Mengash, 2020). This prediction can be managed by locating the source of the
problem. Should it be from extra activities that the student is participating in, family
problems, or health problems? All these factors can have a major effect on student
performance (Sathe & Adamuthe, 2021). There is often a great need to be able to predict
future students’ behavior in order to improve curriculum design and plan interventions for
the Department of Computer Science Federal Polytechnic Bauchi, most time manually
method of evaluating student performance is been deployed which lead to the lack of
efficiency and accuracy due to the highly competitive and complex environment. Thus,
evaluating the students’ performance, and identifying future needs are some challenges faced
Student performance prediction at entry-level and during the subsequent periods will helps
the institutions effectively develop and evolve the intervention plans, where both the
management and educators are the beneficiaries of the students’ performance prediction
plans. However, this research work proposed a comparison evaluation of the following Deep
learning algorithms;Decision Tree, KNN and Support Vector Machines for student
performance predictions. In other, to know the best fit model among the three algorithms.
From the systems analysis above, the following observations were made about the existing
system:
performance.
The lack of existing system to analyses and judge the student’s performance and
The prediction analysis is the approach which predicts future possibilities from the previous
data. The student performance prediction technique has the three phases which are pre-
processing, feature extraction and classification. This research work propose the development
of models using the following Deep learning algorithms; Decision Tree, k-nearest neighbor,
and support vector machine for student performance prediction using a dataset provided by
the University of Minho in Portugal, and it consists of 395 data samples. To ensure better
comparison, we applied both Support Vector Machine algorithm, logistic regression and K-
Nearest Neighbor algorithm on the dataset to predict the student’s performance and then
give it to any classifier. The non-numeric dataset are convert to numerical ones.
ii. To developed and train models using the following supervised machine learning
b. To compared the developed models and determine the best fit model among them.
As system analysis describes what a system should do to meet the information needs of users,
system design specifies how the system will accomplish the result of the analysis. System
design consists of design activities that produce system specifications that satisfy the
Dataset
Pre-Process
Train Models
Perform Predictions
Compare Model
The dataset in this research work was provided by the University of Minho in Portugal, and it
consists of 395 data samples with the following attribute description; the dataset includes 33
attributes. Four of the attributes are nominal, 13 of the attributes are binary and 16 of the
attributes are numeric. The dataset includes 395 instances with no missing values.
for training the models. Sometimes, datasets came up with non-numerical values and it is
numerical ones. Feature scaling was perform to normalize the range of independent variables
or features of data. In data processing, it is also known as data normalization and is generally
performed during the data preprocessing step. This will help our learning algorithms to
converge quickly.
Firstly we look deeper into some features by using multiple methods of visualisation such as
distribution plot, and Density etc. In other to have a good understanding of which features are
The dataset will be divided into two 70% for the training and 30% for the testing. Hence, the
three models will be developed to predict student performance base on the three supervised
machine learning classifiers (Decision Tree, K-nearest neighbor and support vectors
machine).
In order to evaluate our models, we will calculate the accuracy of the model, visualize the
confusion matrix, and then plot the ROC curve. We will get two values of the accuracy, one
obtained with the training set and other with the test set. The test set accuracy is more
relevant for evaluating the performance on unseen data since it’s not biased. The developed
F1 score.
Accuracy score.
Confusion matrix.
ROC curve.
ROC score.
The three classifiers that have been train to predict student performance will be compare
based on the evaluation metrics as stated above in other to determine the best fit model
Figure 4 depicts the system block diagram, which shows the interaction of all the modules
Train_Test_Split
Perform
Train Models
Classification
Compared Models
Dataset
Preprocess
Developed Models
No
Yes
Perform Prediction
Compared Models
Best Model
End
proposed system.
structured programming are fully supported, and many of their features support functional
programming and aspect-oriented programming (including metaprogramming and
metaobjects) (Python, 2021). Many other paradigms are supported via extensions, including
design by contract and logic programming. Python uses dynamic typing and a combination of
reference counting and a cycle-detecting garbage collector for memory management. It uses
dynamic name resolution (late binding), which binds method and variable names during
program execution.
Its design offers some support for functional programming in the Lisp tradition. It has filter,
map and reduce functions; list comprehensions, dictionaries, sets, and generator expressions.
The standard library has two modules (itertools and functools) that implement functional
tools borrowed from Haskell and Standard ML (Fontenrose, 2022). Its core philosophy is
summarized in the document “The Zen of Python (PEP 20)”, which includes aphorisms such
as:
v. Readability counts.
Rather than building all of its functionality into its core, Python was designed to be highly
extensible via modules. This compact modularity has made it particularly popular as a means
Rossum's vision of a small core language with a large standard library and easily extensible
interpreter stemmed from his frustrations with ABC, which espoused the opposite approach.
System requirement for the use of this research work includes the hardware and software
requirement specification.
3.9.1 Recommendation Requirement
The implementation was conducted on Python 3.8, tensorflow, Google Colab, and keras etc.
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