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The document provides an overview of the Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), which is used for project management to estimate task durations, identify dependencies, and determine critical paths. It outlines the characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages of PERT charts, as well as the definitions of time used in project estimation. Additionally, it includes examples and calculations related to project timelines and probabilities of completion within specific durations.

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4 views22 pages

Section (9) or

The document provides an overview of the Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), which is used for project management to estimate task durations, identify dependencies, and determine critical paths. It outlines the characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages of PERT charts, as well as the definitions of time used in project estimation. Additionally, it includes examples and calculations related to project timelines and probabilities of completion within specific durations.

Uploaded by

nourosama399
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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2023 /2024

Fall Semester

Introduction in operation researsh


Section (9)
Dr . Nawal Ahmed Abo Zeid
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Definition: A Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) is used to depict a project’s timeline, estimate
the duration of tasks, identify task dependencies, and determine the project’s critical path.

Purpose of Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Analysis

PERT Analysis informs Program Managers and project personnel on the project’s tasks and the estimated time
required to complete each task. A Program Manager can estimate the minimum time required to complete the
project using this information. The following are PERT’s primary characteristics:

• Helps in the creation of more realistic schedules and cost estimates


• Determine the Critical Path
• Provides a starting point for gathering crucial information for making decisions
• Serves as the foundation for all planning initiatives
• Aids management in selecting the most effective technique for utilizing resources
• Makes use of the time network analysis method
• Outlines the format for reporting data
• Aids management in determining the crucial components for timely project completion
A flowchart is used to depict the Project Evaluation Review Technique. Nodes represent the events,
indicating the start or end of activities or tasks. The directorial lines indicate the tasks that need to be
completed, and the arrows show the sequence of the activities.
There are four definitions of time used to estimate project time requirements:
• Optimistic time – The least amount of time it can take to complete a task
• Pessimistic time – The maximum amount of time it should take to complete a task
• Most likely time – Assuming there are no problems, the best or most reasonable estimate of how long it
should take to complete a task.
• Expected time – Assuming there are problems, the best estimate of how much time will be required to
complete a task.
Here are several terms used in a PERT chart:
• Float/Slack – Refers to the amount of time a task can be delayed without resulting in an overall delay in
completion of other tasks or the project
• Critical Path – Indicates the longest possible continuous path from the start to the end of a task or event
• Critical Path Activity – Refers to an activity without any slack
• Lead Time – Refers to the amount of time needed to finish a task without affecting subsequent tasks
• Lag Time – The earliest time by which a successor event/task can follow a prior event/task
• Fast Tracking – Refers to handling tasks or activities in parallel
• Crashing Critical Path – Shortening the amount of time to do a critical task
To implement a PERT chart:
• Identify the different tasks needed to complete a project. Make sure to add these in the right order and
indicate the duration of each task.
• Create a network diagram. Use arrows to represent the activities and use nodes as milestones.
• Determine the critical path and possible slack.
When to Use a PERT Chart?
PERT charts are handy for projects with the following characteristics:

1. High Uncertainty: When task durations are hard to predict due to complexities or a lack of past
data, PERT charts give a more realistic view using probabilistic estimates.
2. Large and Complex Projects: PERT charts visually represent the flow of big projects with many
interconnected tasks, aiding in planning
and resource management.
1. Research and Development Projects: Innovation projects are naturally uncertain. PERT charts
help handle uncertainties and adjust plans based on ongoing discoveries.
Advantages of PERT Charts
1. Handles Uncertainty: PERT charts give a more realistic view of project timelines using probable
time estimates.
2. Better Risk Management: By identifying the path of activities that would delay a project, PERT
charts help manage risks.
3. Clear Communication: PERT charts make project scope, dependencies, and timelines
clearer.
4. Adaptability: PERT charts can be updated with new information acquired as well as when seen from
different contexts of the project’s progress.
Disadvantages of PERT Charts:
1. Time-Consuming: For complex projects, creating and updating PERT charts might consume a lot of
time.
2. Data Reliance: The accuracy of PERT analysis depends on the quality of time estimates.
3. Resource Limitation: PERT charts focus mainly on task durations and dependencies, offering limited
help with resource allocation.
4. Need for Software: Creating and analyzing complex PERT charts require specialized project
management software.
Example(1):
The following project divides into activities, based on three probabilistic times: Optimistic, Moderate, and
Pessimistic (by weeks):
ActivitiesPath O M P
A 1-2 9 15 21
B 1-3 10 13 16
C 2-4 8 12 16
D 3-4 14 16 30
E 3-5 13 15 17
F 4-6 7 11 15
G 5-6 40 44 48
Required:
1. Draw the network that represents this project.
2. How long the time needed to finish the project?
3. What is the probability to finish the project within 76 weeks, within 68 weeks, within 72weeks, between
74,76 weeks and between 70,76 weeks.
4. The total slack of each activity.
Probability under the normal distribution curve table:

Z Probability
1.11 0.3665
2.22 0.4868
Using the following equation to calculate the Expected time:
(O+4M+P/6)
Activities Expected time
A (9+4×15+21 ÷6)= 15
B (10+4×13+16 ÷6)= 13
C 12
D 18
E 15
F 11
G 44
The maximum time needed to finish the project=72
The critical path is (B E G)= 72.
Standard deviation:
𝝈 =√𝑽𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒉 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒆𝒔
𝑷−𝑶
𝝈 =√( )𝟐
𝟔

𝟏𝟔−𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟕−𝟏𝟑 𝟒𝟖−𝟒𝟎


𝝈 =√( )𝟐 + ( )𝟐+( )𝟐 = 1.8
6 6 6
The probability to finish the project within 76
weeks:
Z=(x-x÷s)=(76-72÷1.8)=2.22
Probability from table0.4868+0.5(constant)=0.9868
Within 68 weeks:
Z=(x-x÷s)=(68-72÷1.8)=-2.22
0.5(constant)- Probability from table0.4868=0.0132

Within 72weeks:
Z=(x-x÷s)=(72-72÷1.8)=0 Probability=0.5(constant)

Between 74,76weeks:
Z=(x-x÷s)=(74-72÷1.8)=1.11 from table=0.3665
Z=(x-x÷s)=(76-72÷1.8)= 2.22 from table=0.4868
Probability=0.4868-0.3665=0.1203

Between 70,76weeks:
Z=(x-x÷s)=(70-72÷1.8)=-1.11 from table=0.3665
Z=(x-x÷s)=(76-72÷1.8)= 2.22 from table=0.4868
Probability=0.4868+0.3665=0.8533
The total slack of each activity:
The earliest start time(ES), earliest finish
time(EF), latest start time (LS)and latest finish
time (LF)for each activity are calculated in the
following table and the slack time for each:
Activities Expected Earliest Latest Slack
time ES EF(3) LS(4) LF (5-3)
(1) (2) (1+2) (5-1) (5) Or
(4-2)
A 15 0 15 34 49 34
B(Critical) 13 0 13 0 13 0
C 12 15 27 49 61 34
D 18 13 31 43 61 30
E (Critical) 15 13 28 13 28 0
F 11 31 42 61 72 30
G (Critical) 44 28 72 28 72 0
Step(1) Graph Graph

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