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Exercises

Statistics For Business And Decision Making (Sapienza - Università di Roma)

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PART 1

Probabilities

1. The employees of a certain company have elected 5 of their number to represent them on the employee-
management productivity council. Profiles of the five are as follows:

Gender Age
Male 25
Male 32
Female 35
Female 20
Male 40
A spoke person is drawn randomly. Compute the probability:

- that the spoke person is a man

- that the spoke person is over 30
- that the spoke person is an over 30 man
- that the spoke person is a woman or over 40

2. We take at random 3 cards (without replacement) from an ordinary deck of cards (52 cards). Compute the
probability for the events:

- all 3 are hearts

- none of the cards are hears
- that the spoke person is an over 30 man

3. At the production of certain item 2 types of defects, A and B, can occur. We know that P(A)=0.1, P(B)=0.2 and
P(A∩B)=0.05. Compute the probability that a produced unit has:

- at least one of the defects

- defect A but not defect B
- none of the defects
- one of the defects

4. An urn contains 2 white balls and 2 black balls. A ball is drawn and replaced with a ball of a different color. Than a
second ball is drawn. Compute the probability that second ball is white.

5. We have 2 urns, A and B, which contain black and white balls. Urn A contains 2 black balls and 3 white balls,
whereas urn B contains 2 black balls and 2 white balls. We draw one ball at random from A and put it in B, without
noticing its color. Next, we draw at random one ball from B. Compute the probability that the ball drawn from B is
white.

6. Assume that the probability that a born baby is a boy is 0.5, and that gender is independent between births. A
family has 4 children. Compute the probability:

- that they have 2 boys and 2 girls, conditional that the first (oldest) is a boy
- that they have at least 2 boys

7. We have 2 urns, A and B. Urn A contains 2 black balls and 3 white balls, whereas urn B contains 6 black balls and 1
white ball. A blind individual selects a ball. Compute the probability that it comes from the urn A, given that it is
white.

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8. At a production process, the produced items are tested for defect. A defective unit is classified as such with
probability 0.9, whereas it is classified as correct with probability 0.05 when it is not defective. Furthermore, 10% of
the produced units are defective. Compute the probability:

- that a randomly selected item is classified as defective

- that a unit is defective, given that it has been classified as such

9. A diagnostic test has a probability 0.95 of giving a positive result when applied to a person suffering from a certain
disease, and a probability 0.10 of giving a false positive when applied to a non-sufferer. It is estimated that 0.5% of
the population are sufferers. Select randomly a person from the population. Compute the probability:

- that the test result will be positive

- that, given a positive result, the person is a sufferer
- that, given a negative result, the person is a non-sufferer
- that the person will be misclassified

10. At a certain university, 4% of men are over 6 feet tall and 1% of women are over 6 feet tall. The total student
population is divided in the ratio 3:2 in favor of women. If a student is selected at random from among all those over
6 feet tall, what is the probability that the student is a woman?

11. A factory production line is manufacturing bolts using 3 machines. A, B and C. Of the total output, machine A is
responsible for 25%, machine B for 35% and machine C for the rest. It is known from previous experience with the
machines that 5% of the output from machine A is defective, 4% from machine B is defective and 2% form the
machine C is defective. A bolt is chosen at random from the production line and found to be defective. Compute the
probability:

- that it came from machine A

- that it came from machine B

12. In an oral exam you must solve exactly one problem, which might be one of three types, A, B, or C, which will
come up with probabilities 30%, 20%, and 50%, respectively. During your preparation you have solved 9 of 10
problems of type A, 2 of 10 problems of type B, and 6 of 10 problems of type C. Compute the probability:

- that you will solve the problem of the exam

- that, given that you’ve solved the problem, it was of type A

13. An HIV test gives a positive result with probability 98% when the patient is indeed affected by HIV, while it gives a
negative result with 99% probability when the patient is not affected by HIV. If a patient is drawn at random from a
population in which 0.1% of individuals are affected by HIV and he is found positive, what is the probability that he is
indeed affected by HIV?

14. An economics consulting firm has created a model to predict recessions. The model predicts a recession with
probability 80% when a recession is indeed coming and with probability 10% when no recession is coming. The
unconditional probability of falling into a recession is 20%. If the model predicts a recession, what is the probability
that a recession will indeed come?

15. Alice has two coins in her pocket, a fair coin (head on one side and tail on the other side) and a two-headed coin.
She picks one at random from her pocket, tosses it and obtains head. What is the probability that she flipped the fair
coin?

16. An urn contains two white balls and two black. A ball is drawn and replaced with a ball of a different color. Then a
second ball is drawn. Calculate the probability that the first extracted was white, when the second is white.

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17. Suppose that we have 2 bags each containing black and white balls. One bag contains three times as many white
balls as blacks. The other bag contains three times as many black balls as white. Suppose we chose one of these bags
at random. For this bag we select five balls at random, replacing each ball after it has been selected. The result is that
we find 4 white balls and one black. What is the probability that we were using the bag with mainly white balls?

Discrete random variables

18. Emily hits 60% of her free throws in basketball. She had 25 throws in last week’s game. What are the average
number of hits and the standard deviation? Suppose Emily had 7 free throws in last game. What is the probability
that she made at least 5 hits?

19. Probability that driver must stop at any traffic light is 0.1. There are 15 sets of traffic light on his journey.
Compute the probability:

- that he will stop exactly at 2 lights

- that he will stop at least at 1 light

20. Executives in the ISPRA Italian agency claim that only 5% of all old sawmills’ sites contain soil residuals of dioxin
(an additive previously used for anti-sap-stain treatment in wood) higher than the recommended level. If an agency
randomly selects 20 old saw mill sites for inspection, assuming that the executive claim is correct, compute
probability:

- that less than 1 site exceeds the recommended level of dioxin

- that less than or equal to 1 site exceed the recommended level of dioxin
- that at most 2 sites exceed the recommended level of dioxin

21. A radioactive source emits 4 particles on average during a five-second period. Compute the probability:

- that it emits 3 particles during a 5-second period

- that it emits at least one particle during a 1-second period
- that, during a ten-second period, 6 particles are emitted

22. The average number of accidents at a level-crossing every year is 5. Calculate the average number of accidents in
one year. Compute the probability:

- that there are exactly 3 accidents there this year

- that there are exactly 0 accidents there in one month

23. Toss a coin 3 times and let X be the random variable defined by the number of heads in 3 tosses. Compute E[X]
and V[X]. Write down and draw the probability distribution and cumulative distribution. Let Y=3+2X, a new random
variable. Compute E[Y] and V[Y].

24. Let X be a discrete random variable with possible values x=0, 1, 2 with probability respectively equal to:
P(X=0)=0.1, P(X=1)=h and P(X=2)=k. Its expected value is equal to 1.5.

- Find h, k such that it is a probability distribution

- According to these values, compute the variance of X
- Let Y=2+0.5X. Compute E[Y] and V[Y]

25. Let X be a discrete random variable with distribution:

X 0 1 2
P(X=x 0.1 k1 k2
)

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We know that E[X]=1.4. Determine k1 and k2.

26. Let X be a discrete random variable with distribution:

X 0 1 2
P(X=x) 0.1 0.5 k1
Determine k1 and compute the variance of X.

27. Let X be a discrete random variable with distribution:

X 1 2 3.5 4
P(X=x K1 0.5 0.3 K2
)
We know that E[X]=2.56 and V[X]=0.8725.

- Determine k1 and k2
- Determine the cumulative distribution function F(x)
- Draw F(x) and he distribution of X

28. Let X1 and X2 be two independent and identically distributed random variables following Bernoulli distribution
with parameter p. Let T=1/3*X1+3/4*X2. Compute mean and variance of T.

329. Let X1, X2… Xn be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with mean μ and
variance σ². Let T=1/3*X1+1/3*X2+… +1/3*Xn. Compute mean and variance of T.

Continuous random variables

30. Let X be a continuous random variable defined as f(x)=kx if x∈[-2,2] and 0 otherwise.

- Determine for which values of k, f(x) is a density function

- Compute E[X]

31. Let X be a continuous random variable defined as f(x)=2x^2 if x∈[0,1] and 0 otherwise.

- Verify that f(x) is a density function

- Compute P(0.5<=X<=0.8)

32. Let X be a continuous random variable defined as f(x)=3x^2 if x∈[0,1] and 0 otherwise.

- Verify that f(x) is a density function.

- Compute E[X] and V[X]
- Determine the cumulative distribution function and the quantile at level 0.1

33. Let X be a continuous random variable defined as f(x)=kx^3 if x∈[0,10] and 0 otherwise.

- Determine for which values of k, f(x) is a density function

- Compute P(5<=X<=8)

34. Let X be a continuous random variable defined as f(x)=[2(b-x)]/b^2 if x∈[0,b] and 0 otherwise. Prove that f(x) is a
density function.

PART 2

Estimators

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35. Let X1, X2 be a random sample from a population with mean µ and standard deviation σ. Consider the following
two estimators for µ: T1=2/3*X1 + 1/3*X2 and T2=1/2*X1 + 1/2*X2 Which of the two estimators would you choose?

36. Let X be a population with Poisson distribution with parameter λ and consider the following estimators: T1=X1/k
+ X2/k and T2=(X1)/4 + (X2)/4 For each estimator, study: the bias. For which value of k the first estimator is
unbiased? What are the MSE?

37. Let X1, X2, ... Xn be a random sample from a population with mean µ and standard deviation σ. Let Tn
=1/3*X1+1/3*X2+ ...+1/3*Xn be an estimator for µ. Is the estimator biased? If yes, for which values of n it will be
unbiased? Compute its variance and comment the result for increasing n.

38. Let X1, X2, ... Xn be a random sample from a normal population with mean µ and standard deviation σ. Let T=
X1/n+X2/n+ ... +Xn/n and T1=5+3T. Is the estimator T1 biased? Compute MSE(T1). Derive probability distribution of
T1.

39. Let X1, X2, ... Xn be a random sample from a population with mean µ and standard deviation σ. Let
T1=X1/n+X2/n+...+ Xn/n and T2=X1+X2+…+Xn. Compute MSEs. Which of the two estimators would you choose?

40. Le X be a population with Bernoulli distribution with parameter π and consider the following estimators:
T1=(X1)/2+(X2)/2 and T2=(X1)/4+(X2)/4 For each estimator, study: the bias; the MSE.

41. Let X be a population with Bernoulli distribution with parameter π and consider the following estimators:
T1=(X1)/2+(X2)/2 and T2=2/3*X1+ 1/3X*2. Which estimate is preferred to estimate π?

42. Let π be the proportion of subjects in the population presenting a specific characteristic. Let T=1/3*X1+k/4*X2 be
an estimator for T. For which values of k the estimator is unbiased? Compute its mean squared error (MSE); Compute
the estimate corresponding to an observed sample x1=1 and x2=0.

Inference

43. A sample of 16 small bags of the same brand of candies was selected. Assume that the population distribution of
bag weights is normal. The weight of each bag was then recorded. The mean weight was two ounces with a standard
deviation of 0.12 ounces. Define an appropriate estimator for µ and their properties (compute its mean and its
variance); Which distribution does the estimator follow? Construct a 90% confidence interval for the population
mean weight of the candies and interpret the obtained result; Using the p-value, what would you conclude about the
following hypothesis: H0: µ = 2.2 and H1 : µ!= 2.2

44. Among various ethnic groups, the standard deviation of heights is known to be approximately three inches. We
wish to construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean height of male Swedes. 48 male Swedes are surveyed. The
sample mean is 71 inches. The sample standard deviation is 2.8 inches. Define an appropriate estimator for µ and
their properties (compute its mean and its variance); Which distribution does the estimator follow? Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the population mean height of male Swedes and interpret the obtained result; Test if the
mean height is significantly larger than 72 (with α = 0.05) using the p-value.

45. Suppose that an accounting firm does a study to determine the time needed to complete one person’s tax forms.
It randomly surveys 100 people. The sample mean is 23.6 hours. There is a known standard deviation of 7.0 hours.
The population distribution is assumed to be normal. Define an appropriate estimator for µ and its properties
(compute its mean and its variance); Which distribution does the estimator follow? Test if the mean is significantly
larger than 24 hours using the p-value method. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the population mean time to
complete the tax forms and interpret the obtained result; If the firm did another survey, kept the error bound the
same, and only surveyed 49 people, what would happen to the level of confidence? Why? Using the p-value, what
would you conclude about the following hypothesis: H0: µ = 24 and H1: µ!= 24

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46. The age distribution of students in a graduate program is approximately normally distributed with unknown
mean and standard deviation 5. You sample 24 individuals from this population and find a sample mean of 25.0.
Calculate the 95% confidence interval for mean age in the study population based upon mean in your sample.

47. A survey of 30 pharmacies found that the average cost of a monthly supply of a particular drug was 33 dollars.
The standard deviation of the cost of the prescription for the population is assumed to be 7 dollars. Based on the
data, determine the 90% confidence interval for the mean price; A pharmacist reads that a 95% confidence interval
for the average price is [30.50; 35.50]. Asked to explain the meaning of this, the pharmacist states 95% of all
pharmacies sell the drug for between 30.50 and 35.50 dollars. Is the pharmacist correct? Explain your response.

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