Contingency Analysis AToolto Improve Power System Security
Contingency Analysis AToolto Improve Power System Security
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Abstract – Contingency analysis is a mathematical tool for unplanned outage. Contingency analysis is useful for managing,
predicting equipment failure or the failure of a particular creating, analyzing, and reporting lists of possible outages and
line and taking corrective action before the system enters associated failures or disturbances in a power system. The
an unstable region. The contingencies may be insertion or security constraints should be within the operating point. The
removal of one or more elements in an electrical network. constraints can be of any dynamic or static ones like voltage
These changes led to situations where the power system no stability, transient stability, and small-signal stability limits. If
longer remains in the safe operating region. Corrective violated, it further gives rise to other serious problems. Hence a
action should be taken as soon as possible, otherwise the proper understanding of transmission management is necessary
to develop an effective way of providing economic power [1].
system may enter an unstable region. Contingency ranking
The load flow solution should be fast enough to reach its
selection is an effective method of providing a power system
convergence point. It determines the maximum load that can be
safety assessment. This article summarizes the research connected to a bus system. This method is useful to determine
work in the field of contingency analysis and how to find its maximum loadability for an electric utility. It is also one of
various performance indicators and classify them the security methods in a power system [2] [29] [42]. To avoid
according to their severity. A small system consisting of a blackout, the load applied should be limited to limit the line
14 buses has been tested for various emergencies. After flow in the network [3] [14]. To perform contingency analysis,
solving the emergency, it was found that the number of line outage distribution factors (LODFs) are used. For multiple
violations was reduced and most of the parameters were contingencies and the improvement in speed of LODFs, the
within reach to ensure the safe operation of the simple formation of a matrix is utilized in the power transfer of
electrical system. distribution factors [4] [38]. Under normal operating conditions,
load flow analysis provides information about voltage
magnitudes, its angles, active and reactive power flows at
Keywords- Contingency Analysis, Contingency Ranking, Security,
performance indices, outage, Multiple contingencies. respective buses, and the accompanying losses. To find the
maximum loading factor, contingency power flow is
implemented [5]. Contingency analysis is based on two types of
I. INTRODUCTION power system security. 1) Static Security Assessment (SSA)
that is mainly based on voltage stability and transmission line
The grid is a complex network that includes various stability. 2) Dynamic Security Assessment (DSA) which
equipment devices such as generators, transformers, considers the conditions in SSA accompanied with dynamic and
transmission lines, etc. Any sudden failure or short circuit in transient stability. Contingency analysis is performed done
these devices during their operation can harm the system and using two common methods. 1) Ranking Method 2) Screening
hence leads to outages. This can be further harmful to the Method. The ranking method is a performance index (PI) based
employees working on the system. The word used to define this method in which the contingencies are ranked in approximate
outage is contingency. Contingency can be also called an order of severity. The screening method is used to identify the
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most harmful contingencies but here the limits are violated . compares the exact ranking method and precise ranking
Since contingency analysis is a time-consuming process, the method. It is based on a realistic approach. It is revealed that the
analysis is done with an approximate DC power flow model of precise ranking method is accurate than the exact ranking
the power system [6]. Cascading failure or higher-order method. It is a fast-based method and can be used on a complex
contingency events often causes a blackout. The reasons for power system network [15]. In Analytical Hierarchy Process,
such failures are: the weighing factors are properly adjusted. The fast decoupled
1) The hidden failure happens during which the outages are method is used to determine contingency ranking [19]. The
not visible to users. addition of the performance index of active power and voltage
2) Inadequate backup protection and relay settings performance is done and the highest values are ranked first with
3) Switching operation in which a system may respond to a subsequently the other lines in descending order. If the line
fault but may not remove it. ranks first, then it can make the system operate beyond its power
4) Interference or mismatch in communication during which limit [16, 17, 20, 40]. Using a sensitivity vector, the changes in
the relay may unable to trip the circuit breaker while bus voltage and line flow can be determined when there is an
identifying the fault. event of a possible fault. The sensitivity vector linearizes the ac
5) External factors in which the line gets sagged because of load flow. During contingency, the changes in voltage and its
expansion in summer [7]. angle can be calculated using sensitivity vectors. The AC load
flow provides better accuracy when combined with sensitivity
factors. The contingencies may increase or decrease the flow of
II. LITERATURE SURVEY active power. Hence, contingencies should be ranked based on
the active and reactive power limits [18]. Whenever a fault
With the help of V-Q curves, the voltage stability and reactive occurs in a transmission line, there occurs variation in voltage
power reserve of load buses are determined. They both are collapse. This is due to the change in load margin. To obtain a
derived using Newton- Raphson load flow method [8]. Static steady stable margin, a method called a nose curve is
analysis is a method of using commercial software to obtain the implemented. This method is applied and tested on single and
post-contingency equilibrium condition. The desired conditions multiple contingencies of 118 bus system. The change in load
of pre-contingency and post contingency load flow solutions are margin is estimated using linear and quadratic equations. The
the same with a notable difference between them. It is observed linear estimate proves to be faster than the quadratic equation
that post contingency load flow cannot determine accurate [21]. For an accurate ranking of N-1 contingency, it is necessary
equilibrium which is essential for the analysis of steady-state to have a current-based power network system. To measure line
[9]. When there is a branch outage, the voltage stability index flows, distribution factors are used. This is done using phasor
(VSI) margin can be determined by checking each line in the measurement units which also predict the sensitivities in a
system and calculating its line stability indices. The VSI system. The equations of total active and total reactive power
determines the maximum possible load that can be connected to are taken in polynomial form. The contingency ranking is
a bus to maintain stability before the system develops an outage performed using performance in which the summation of the
[10]. Over the past few years, the existing distributed systems total line and total voltage-based performance index is taken
are relying on Distributed Energy Resources (DER) to meet the into consideration. The line outage distribution factors and
needs of increasing power demands. DER helps in improving injection shift factors approach is implemented and tested on
power quality and reliability. An islanding is a situation where IEEE 118 bus system. The least-square curve fit considers a
distributed generators continue to supply power to a given random set of points and it tries to fit in its desired limit range.
location even if power is removed from the grid. There are two The advantage of this method is that it does not rely on the
variations of islanding namely; accidental islanding and repetitive computation of power flow and hence it removes
intentional islanding. In accidental islanding, the voltage and complex line flows. The only limitation of this method is that
frequency are controlled without interfacing with DER for every load bus there is the requirement of voltage variation.
equipment. In intentional islanding, the system is pre-planned Also, a sufficient amount of time is required to collect the
and is accordingly designed to cope up with the situation [11]. system data [23]. The VSA considers a large number of
When there is a disturbance or outage in a Distributed contingencies that may lead to voltage variation. Commonly
Generation (DG) system, the frequency and voltage are altered. used methods are continuation power flow and generalized
This can be rectified by modeling the DG with the combined power flow method. The above methods are not reliable since it
loop of Automatic Voltage Regulator (AVR) and Automatic provides poor accuracy of contingency ranking. A new method
Generation Control (AGC). The stability can be determined is proposed to rectify the error is Reselecting curve fitting
using the islanding method for different types of contingency points. In RSFP, the average voltage stability margin
[12]. Many researchers have tried to make improvements in this corresponding to the nose curve is considered. The second
method. Using AC power flow, the contingency ranking of PI method filters out the unnecessary nose points. The
with that of distribution factors is carried out for different bus contingencies were applied and tested for 197 bus, 30 bus, 600
systems. This provides more stability and accuracy when bus, and 1254 bus systems. The results proved that a faster
compared to the standard performance index [13]. A 10 bus estimation of voltage stability margin can be achieved and it can
system is implemented for contingency ranking which consider the most severe contingencies. The new method
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applied also improves the system's computational performance contingencies. This method was used on IEEE Nordic system.
[24]. In a network, violations in a bus can happen. Radial Bus It was revealed that it identifies N-2 contingencies very early
voltage violations can be used to rank the contingencies. A [30]. The contingency ranking is also done using an Interline
method called unsupervised learning is used to identify Power Flow Controller (IPFC) which is a type of FACTS
disturbances in the system. A new performance index method device. The contingency ranking is done using the performance
is proposed in which it applies to buses in the limitations of its index method. Here only the Active Power Performance Index
violation. The system is implemented on IEEE 30 bus system. (APPI) is considered. The severe transmission line is ranked
The results show that the neural network-based RBF (Radial with and without incorporating IPFC in the system. The system
Bus Function) takes less time when compared to the MLP is simulated for IEEE-6 and IEEE-30 bus system. It is seen that
model. The voltage performance index applied in this is faster the capability of the system gets increased because the
than the conventional one. The RBF-based method can handle performance index of active power is greater than the
contingency easily on undesirable loading conditions. It can overloading condition in the transmission line [32]. To get a
also be tested for large contingencies [25]. To enhance voltage better contingency ranking, the system stability should be
stability, a concept called reserve-based contingency improved. This is possible through a solution based on a
constrained optimal power flow (RCCOPF) can be dynamic security assessment. It is applied to the control room
implemented. This concept is based on the stability of the of the system. The composite index is made using fuzzy logic
voltage margin of power flow. This method is developed using which combines the indices. A three-stage fuzzy interference
two algorithms namely continuation power flow (MCPF) and system is designed. The frequency deviation on three-phase
optimal power flow (OPF). The method works continuously on fault in line and generator outage is noted. The index alerts the
the power flow until the stability of the voltage margin reaches control operator of any possible risk that might harm the
its expected value. The results show that the post contingency system's performance. The frequency improves after some time
voltage stability can be improved by RCCOPF. This can also and reaches its expected value. There occur variations in load
reduce the number of iterations when there is an increase in flow and voltage but still, the post contingency analysis drives
reactive reserve while applying sensitivity [26]. Contingency the system into stability. Hence, dynamic security assessment is
can be also determined in terms of line stability. An online real- a helpful phenomenon in contingency ranking [33]. Online
time assessment method based on an equilibrium solution is reduces the variations in power system stability and hence
used to determine the index of line stability. This leads to the provides an improvement in an electrical network. It can also
stability of voltage limits. To form an equilibrium solution be used on SCADA-based systems [34]. The outage of line and
region the equations of active and reactive power are formed. transformers is considered using linear, piecewise, and exact
Both the powers are observed and their similarities and estimate methods. The method was implemented for IEEE 14
differences are evaluated to the solution. This real-time method and 57-bus test system. It was observed that the estimation
has fewer steps required and can provide good voltage stability errors were significantly reduced. The application of this can be
in a network system [27]. Another real-time assessment-based found in areas of voltage stability to determine the post-
method is implemented by redefining contingency. This method contingency of P-V and V-Q curves, maximum transfer
determines the number of breakers required to isolate the capability to observe the effect of reactive flows, and reactive
system containing any possible outage. The contingency is power reserves to compute the impact of contingencies on
ranked by opening the circuit breakers [28]. Another method reactive power sources [35]. An algorithm called Random
that can determine real-time contingency analysis is Chemistry is developed to identify multiple contingencies
transmission switching. This method has certain limitations which are responsible for causing large cascading failures. The
such as AC load flow feasibility, complexity, and the ability to method is applied to minimal branch contingencies which can
handle large power networks. The desired switching is achieved cause large failures. The algorithm first initiates the power flow
using three heuristic algorithms along with parallel computing. in the system. When the contingencies are introduced, it checks
These algorithms provide solutions in a short time. The system for possible system failure. The relays are then updated. It
was tested on the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) system advances time until there is an occurrence of the next failure.
and actual energy management system (EMS) snapshots from The branches are tripped and it is repeated for further analysis.
the PJM Interconnection (PJM) and the Electric Reliability The results indicate that the frequencies with which the
Council of Texas (ERCOT). The results show that the dynamic individual branches interact to trigger large blackouts follow a
violations provide the desired performance. The corrective power-law distribution. The branch outages with huge amounts
transmission switching (CTS) reduces post contingency of pre-contingency power flow can interact with failures in
violations in AC load flow. The CTS is further analyzed and the larger transmission lines. This can initiate large cascading
output promises more than 99% accuracy [31]. To identify failures. With the increase in K value, the possibility of such
possible N-K contingencies, a time-domain simulation method interactions can also increase [36]. In any power system
is used. The system first identifies the list of less severe network, the main concern is always its huge computational
contingencies. Then it progresses towards more severe load. Various methods of contingency analysis have been
contingencies. With every contingency ranking, simulation developed which provides decent results. A new method called
results are displayed. If the response is unstable, then there is a recursion-based contingency analysis works on a particular
possibility of contingency. It is further evaluated on N-(K+1) contingency sorting. The method was tested on 14 bus IEEE test
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system. The algorithm selects its first contingency. It moves to the severe contingencies and hence it improves the performance
its next contingency only after analyzing the first. It continues on stability analysis in different simulation conditions. These
till the size of simultaneously failing elements reaches its scenarios lead to the formation of tuples which are defined here
maximum size. The restoration process starts until one of the as contingencies [45]. The holomorphic embedded simulator
elements is turned on again. The recursion-based contingency provides a guarantee of theoretical convergence. It discards the
is complete only when all the elements are processed. The use of numerical issues. A partitioned is developed by
results obtained were a twofold increase in the computational interfacing partitioning of Holomorphic Embedding (HE)
efficiency when compared with the conventional contingency formulation. This method also neglects the numerical issues and
sorting procedure [37]. In a deregulated environment, a heavily hence burden is reduced while analyzing large-scale
loaded power system is used extensively. Voltage collapse may contingency. The Parallel Holomorphic Embedding (PHE)
occur if reactive power management is not accurate. Therefore, method is then improved by computation of parallel or
the contingencies can be ranked based on reactive power margin distributed method so it becomes parallel PHE [46].
It is measured on the distance between the nose of V-Q curves
and the V axis. The method used here first determines the list of III. CONTINGENCY
all possible contingencies. For each contingency, it calculates
the minimum reactive power margin. The advantage of using A. Single Outage Contingency (N-1)
this method is that it does not leave out any contingency and it
can work even for generator outages. The system was The criterion N-1 is the interruption due to any of the following
implemented for IEEE 39 bus system and the results obtained unexpected events:
were accurate [39]. The method used in reference [24] can be a) There is loss of a single-circuit overhead interconnection
improved if it is in a distributed computing environment. In line, radial circuits which connect loads using a single
distributed computing, a single large program can be divided overhead line or cable;
into several smaller programs. The programs divided can be b) There is loss of a single transformer, except those which
communicated over a common network. This speeds up the connect loads using a single radial transformer;
process of contingency ranking and the results can be obtained c) There is loss of a generator, whether grid-connected or
much earlier [41]. Using a suitable screening method and a embedded;
custom program, contingencies were ranked by comparing their d) There is a loss of Shunt devices such as capacitors and
loadability with the maximum loadability of the system. If the reactors.
maximum loadability was very low in contingency it is
categorized as Unacceptable Contingency Category. If the The N-1 criterion is satisfied if, after a single system element
maximum loadability is more in contingency it is categorized as has failed (e.g. transmission line, transformer, generating unit,
in Acceptable Contingency Category. The contingencies falling etc.), the following rules are observed:
in between acceptable and Unacceptable categories are termed a) There is no breach of the limiting values for network
as Significant Contingencies and are placed in the third operation variables (i.e. operation voltage, frequency) that
category. The method is verified on a IEEE 118-bus Test may harm the security of the power system or lead to an
System. The method shows that more than 95% of the total unacceptable strain on equipment, damage, destruction,
possible contingencies are accompanied by the acceptable or an inadmissible reduction in the life of the equipment.
category. Contingencies with negative MW machine are b) There is no equipment or loading of the transmission line
recognized as Unacceptable contingencies and those with less that has exceeded 100% of its operational thermal limit
than 90% of the maximum MW machine are recognized as capacity.
Significant contingencies. The algorithm is time-saving and c) Supply interruption is avoided.
provides smaller output results [43]. The composite index is
used which ranks the contingencies based on the changes in the
system parameters and not on independent parameters. A B. N-K Contingency
modified IEEE 9 bus system was implemented. First, it was
done using the standard IEEE system. The second system was Here N represents the number of a particular element and K is
based on renewables connected to the weakest bus and the third the respective contingency applied to the power system
was by replacing synchronous generators with renewables. The network where K = 0, 1, 2, …N. When K = 0, it means that the
pre and post contingencies of this bus system are done and the system is a healthy condition. It is also known as a pre
contingencies were ranked on the bases at their maximum contingency state. If K = 1, it means that only one element is
power. The results obtained were in real-time and the time taken out of service. It is also called the N-1 criterion. The N-1
for computation was less [44]. Various indicators can be criterion is an abstraction representing an equivalent of a single
combined to identify critical case and fault scenarios. The contingency. It causes tripping of one element due to a three-
stability analysis can be improved for determining the phase short circuit fault. The difficulty in analyzing N-K
contingency through indicators derived from stability contingencies lies in the nature of their combinations. The
assessments. The indicators are critical clearing time, angle number of contingencies may vary depending on the level of
index, and voltage ride-through index. The indicators identify analysis, several elements (N), and level of contingency. The
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first level contingency corresponds to N-1, the second level ng is the number of generators.
contingency corresponds to N-2, and so on. Conventionally, 𝑄𝑖 reactive power at bus i.
the dynamic security analysis of the system is conducted for a 𝑄𝑖𝑚 reactive power limit at bus i.
few minutes in response to few pre-selected contingencies. In
many cases, the dangerous effects of contingencies can be IV. ALGORITHM FOR CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS
easily neglected until they occur, because the chance of their 1) Using Simple Method
occurrence is much less. However, a variety of contingencies
will occur, and the consequences may be very serious for
START
analyzing high-risk N-k contingencies for online secured
operation assessment.
Initialize the system model
C. Contingency Creation
N=1
Newton Raphson's load flow method is used because it has good
accuracy. The real power, reactive power, and voltage
magnitude equations are given below: Simulate Nth unit outage
𝑃𝑖 = ∑𝑛𝑗=1 |𝑉𝑖||𝑉𝑗 ∥ 𝑌𝑖𝑗|𝑐𝑜𝑠(𝜃𝑖𝑗 − 𝛿𝑖 + 𝛿𝑗) (1)
𝑛
𝑄𝑖 = − ∑𝑗=1 |𝑉𝑖||𝑉𝑗 ∥ 𝑌𝑖𝑗|𝑠𝑖𝑛(𝜃𝑖𝑗 − 𝛿𝑖 + 𝛿𝑗) (2)
|𝑉𝑖 | = (𝑃𝑖 − 𝑗𝑄𝑖 )/[∑𝑛𝑗=1 |𝑉𝑗||𝑌𝑖𝑗|(𝑐𝑜𝑠 (𝜃𝑖𝑗 − 𝛿𝑖 + 𝛿𝑗) + YES
Check for line flow
𝑠𝑖𝑛(𝜃𝑖𝑗 − 𝛿𝑖 + 𝛿𝑗))] (3) limit violations alarm
where,
𝑛 represent the total number of buses. NO
|𝑉𝑖| is voltage magnitude at ith bus.
YES
|𝑉𝑗| is voltage magnitude at j bus. Any bus voltage
alarm
crosses the limit?
|𝑃𝑖| is real power and |𝑄𝑖| is reactive power.
|𝑌𝑖𝑗| and 𝜃𝑖𝑗 are bus admittance voltage and the angle at bus i
N = N+1 NO
and j respectively.
𝛿𝑖 and 𝛿𝑗 are voltage angles at bus i and j respectively. NO
All units
considered?
YES
B. Voltage Performance Index (P𝐼v) Any bus voltage alarm
crosses the limit?
𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐 2𝑁
𝑤𝑣 |𝑣𝑖 |−|𝑣𝑖 |
𝑃𝐼𝑣 = ∑𝑛𝑙 { } (6) I = I+1
2𝑁 ∆𝑣𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡 NO
𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐
|𝑣𝑖 | is the bus i specified voltage magnitude
𝑤𝑣 is the real non-negative weighing factor NO
All units
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TABLE 1: APPLIED CONTINGENCY FOR 14 BUS
START SYSTEM
Line From To Violations Max
Initialize the system and perform Number Line Line Branch%
pre-contingency analysis
1 1 2 15 424.7
2 1 5 15 109.3
Simulate line contingencies 3 2 3 16 394.9
4 2 4 17 387.3
5 2 5 17 389.6
Run load flow 6 3 4 17 391.6
7 4 5 17 289.6
8 4 7 18 324.7
Compute power flow in all Compute PIv 9 4 9 18 369.5
lines and compute Pmax 10 5 6 17 333.2
11 6 11 17 370.6
12 6 12 17 380.8
Compute all the bus
voltages
Compute PIp 13 6 13 17 377.8
14 7 8 16 381.7
15 7 9 17 387.4
16 9 10 18 385.6
Are all 17 9 14 17 382.8
lines Compute Overall 18 10 12 17 378.6
considere Performance Index 19 12 13 17 381.5
20 13 14 17 379.3
Rank the contingencies based on
overall performance index TABLE 2: SOLVED CONTINGENCY FOR 14BUS SYSTEM
Line From To Violations Max
Number Line Line Branch%
Fig. 2 Contingency Analysis using Newton Raphson Method
1 1 2 - -
2 1 5 13
3 2 3 13 169.3
4 2 4 12 -
5 2 5 12 -
6 3 4 12 -
7 4 5 12 -
8 4 7 15 147
9 4 9 12 -
10 5 6 15 175.8
11 6 11 12 -
12 6 12 12 -
13 6 13 13 117.1
14 7 8 11 -
15 7 9 15 147
16 9 10 12 -
17 9 14 13 144.3
18 10 12 12 -
19 12 13 12 -
20 13 14 12 -
Fig. 3 IEEE 14 Bus Test System
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