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Tsaf L2

The document provides an overview of Time Series Analysis (TSA) and its importance in forecasting quantitative variables over time, such as sales and inventory. It discusses various components of TSA, including trends, cycles, seasonal variations, and random variations, as well as techniques for measuring accuracy and methods for forecasting like moving averages and exponential smoothing. The document emphasizes the necessity of trying multiple techniques to find the most effective model for a given dataset.

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dr.sumitcse
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8 views21 pages

Tsaf L2

The document provides an overview of Time Series Analysis (TSA) and its importance in forecasting quantitative variables over time, such as sales and inventory. It discusses various components of TSA, including trends, cycles, seasonal variations, and random variations, as well as techniques for measuring accuracy and methods for forecasting like moving averages and exponential smoothing. The document emphasizes the necessity of trying multiple techniques to find the most effective model for a given dataset.

Uploaded by

dr.sumitcse
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Time Series Analysis and

Forecasting(soc-316)

Dr. Sumit Kumar


Introduction to Time Series Analysis
• A time-series is a set of observations on a quantitative
variable collected over time.
• Examples
– Dow Jones Industrial Averages
– Historical data on sales, inventory, customer counts,
interest rates, costs, etc
• Businesses are often very interested in forecasting time
series variables.
• Often, independent variables are not available to build a
regression model of a time series variable.
• In time series analysis, we analyze the past behavior of
a variable in order to predict its future behavior.
Methods used in Forecasting
• Regression Analysis
• Time Series Analysis (TSA)
– A statistical technique that uses
time-series data for explaining the past
or forecasting future events.
– The prediction is a function of time
(days, months, years, etc.)
– No causal variable; examine past behavior of
a variable and and attempt to predict future
behavior
Components of TSA
• Time Frame (How far can we predict?)
– short-term (1 - 2 periods)
– medium-term (5 - 10 periods)
– long-term (12+ periods)
– No line of demarcation
• Trend
– Gradual, long-term movement (up or down) of
demand.
– Easiest to detect
Components of TSA (Cont.)
• Cycle
– An up-and-down repetitive movement in demand.
– repeats itself over a long period of time
• Seasonal Variation
– An up-and-down repetitive movement within a trend
occurring periodically.
– Often weather related but could be daily or weekly
occurrence
• Random Variations
– Erratic movements that are not predictable because
they do not follow a pattern
Time Series Plot
Components of TSA (Cont.)
• Difficult to forecast demand because...
– There are no causal variables
– The components (trend, seasonality,
cycles, and random variation) cannot
always be easily or accurately
identified
Some Time Series Terms
• Stationary Data - a time series variable exhibiting
no significant upward or downward trend over
time.
• Nonstationary Data - a time series variable
exhibiting a significant upward or downward trend
over time.
• Seasonal Data - a time series variable exhibiting
a repeating patterns at regular intervals over
time.
Approaching Time Series Analysis
• There are many, many different time series
techniques.
• It is usually impossible to know which technique
will be best for a particular data set.
• It is customary to try out several different
techniques and select the one that seems to work
best.
• To be an effective time series modeler, you need
to keep several time series techniques in your
“tool box.”
Measuring Accuracy
• We need a way to compare different time series
techniques for a given data set.
• Four common techniques are the:

– mean absolute deviation,

– mean absolute percent error,

– the mean square error,

– root mean square error.

• We will focus on MSE.


Extrapolation Models
• Extrapolation models try to account for the past
behavior of a time series variable in an effort to
predict the future behavior of the variable.
Moving Averages

● No general method exists for determining k.


● We must try out several k values to see what works best.
Weighted Moving Average
• The moving average technique assigns equal weight
to all previous observations

● The weighted moving average technique allows for


different weights to be assigned to previous
observations.

● We must determine values for k and the wi


Exponential Smoothing

● It can be shown that the above equation is equivalent to:


Seasonality
• Seasonality is a regular, repeating
pattern in time series data.
• May be additive or multiplicative in
nature...
Stationary Seasonal Effects
Trend Models
• Trend is the long-term sweep or general
direction of movement in a time series.
• We’ll now consider some nonstationary time
series techniques that are appropriate for
data exhibiting upward or downward trends.
The Linear Trend Model

For example:
The TREND() Function
TREND(Y-range, X-range, X-value for prediction)
where:
Y-range is the spreadsheet range containing the dependent Y
variable,
X-range is the spreadsheet range containing the independent X
variable(s),
X-value for prediction is a cell (or cells) containing the values for
the independent X variable(s) for which we want an estimated value
of Y.
Note: The TREND( ) function is dynamically updated whenever any inputs to
the function change. However, it does not provide the statistical information
provided by the regression tool. It is best two use these two different
approaches to doing regression in conjunction with one another.
The Quadratic Trend Model
Combining Forecasts
• It is also possible to combine forecasts to create a
composite forecast.
• Suppose we used three different forecasting methods
on a given data set.
● Denote the predicted value of time period t using
each method as follows:

● We could create a composite forecast as follows:

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