This document discusses the need for an integrated climate information system. Such a system would include:
1) Observations of the atmosphere, ocean, land and forcings.
2) Analysis and assimilation of these observations to produce comprehensive, integrated products.
3) Attribution of climate anomalies and understanding of causes.
4) Assessments of impacts on global and regional scales for planning purposes.
It emphasizes the importance of sustained observations, reanalysis, improved models, and providing climate information for decision makers and adaptation. The World Climate Research Programme can help by advocating for key observations, developing datasets and products, and ensuring access to climate data and information.
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Building A Climate Information System Kevin E Trenberth
This document discusses the need for an integrated climate information system. Such a system would include:
1) Observations of the atmosphere, ocean, land and forcings.
2) Analysis and assimilation of these observations to produce comprehensive, integrated products.
3) Attribution of climate anomalies and understanding of causes.
4) Assessments of impacts on global and regional scales for planning purposes.
It emphasizes the importance of sustained observations, reanalysis, improved models, and providing climate information for decision makers and adaptation. The World Climate Research Programme can help by advocating for key observations, developing datasets and products, and ensuring access to climate data and information.
This document discusses the need for an integrated climate information system. Such a system would include:
1) Observations of the atmosphere, ocean, land and forcings.
2) Analysis and assimilation of these observations to produce comprehensive, integrated products.
3) Attribution of climate anomalies and understanding of causes.
4) Assessments of impacts on global and regional scales for planning purposes.
It emphasizes the importance of sustained observations, reanalysis, improved models, and providing climate information for decision makers and adaptation. The World Climate Research Programme can help by advocating for key observations, developing datasets and products, and ensuring access to climate data and information.
Copyright:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
Download as pdf or txt
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Building A Climate Information System Kevin E Trenberth
This document discusses the need for an integrated climate information system. Such a system would include:
1) Observations of the atmosphere, ocean, land and forcings.
2) Analysis and assimilation of these observations to produce comprehensive, integrated products.
3) Attribution of climate anomalies and understanding of causes.
4) Assessments of impacts on global and regional scales for planning purposes.
It emphasizes the importance of sustained observations, reanalysis, improved models, and providing climate information for decision makers and adaptation. The World Climate Research Programme can help by advocating for key observations, developing datasets and products, and ensuring access to climate data and information.
Copyright:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
Download as pdf or txt
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Building a Climate Information System Kevin E Trenberth NCAR
Global warming is unequivocal: Adaptation to climate change
Assess vulnerability Determine impacts of possible changes Devise coping strategies Plan for future changes
Requires information 2
A climate information system
Observations: forcings, atmosphere, ocean, land Analysis: comprehensive, integrated, products Assimilation: model based, initialization Attribution: understanding, causes Assessment: global, regions, impacts, planning Predictions: multiple time scales Decision Making: impacts, adaptation An Integrated Earth System Information System 3
Imperative:
Climate Information System
Trenberth, 2008
WCRP
WMO Bull
Nature 6 December 2007
4
Last meeting late March 2010
Chair (2004-2010) WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel WCRP/GCOS: WMO/IOC/ICSU
5
Kevin Trenberth
World Climate Research Programme
WOAP WOAP is primarily sponsored by WCRP but is also co-sponsored by GCOS, WOAP is a coordination Panel in WCRP Preferred channel for interactions GCOS and WCRP AOPC ,OOPC , TOPC are also co-sponsored by WCRP WOAP helps to coordinate GCOS panels and issues WOAP serves to help with GEOSS workplans. Much material and background docs on WOAP website Last mtg: March 2010, Hamburg, Germany 6
WOAP: Key climate issues
Climate data records
Continuity, continuity, continuity; The need for reprocessing and reanalysis of past data and coordination of these activities among agencies and variables; GRUAN, GPS RO, Includes evaluation and assessment or CLARREO results Importance of calibration, accuracy, benchmarks, Space and in situ observations;
Reanalysis to produce global gridded fields
8
World Climate Research Programme
Large disparities among different analyses
Daily SST (1 Jan 2007) Reynolds and Chelton 2010 JC
Sea Level
Palmer et al 2010 OceanObs09
OHC
Total sea ice area, 2007 and 2008
NASA Team NASA Team 2 SSM/I Bootstrap AMSR Bootstrap ASI Cal/Val (York) Bristol Norsex
Avg. of 8 algorithms & 1 st. dev. range
2007 2008
No single algorithm clearly superior
The largest factor for ice concentration/extent consistency is intercalibration of the products through transitions through different generations of satellite-borne sensors.
10
1. There is not a problem with lack of reanalyses, indeed there is a proliferation. The problems are:
Reanalysis
1. Lack of an end to end program with adequate vetting and evaluation of products (and the funding for that), and 2. Reanalysis is all done in a research domain and not sustained, so that key personnel can be lost. 3. Lack of adequate vetting and diagnosis
2. Reanalysis is an essential part of climate services, especially in monitoring, attribution and prediction 11
Atmospheric Reanalyses Current atmospheric reanalyses, with the horizontal resolution (latitude; T159 is equivalent to about 0.8 ), the starting and ending dates, the approximate vintage of the model and analysis system, and current status. Reanalysis Horiz.Res T62 T62 T382 T62 T159 T255 T106 T319 Dates Vintage 1995 2001 2009 2009 2004 2009 2006 2009 2009 Status NCEP/NCAR R1 NCEP-DOE R2 CFSR (NCEP) C20r (NOAA) ERA-40 ERA-Interim JRA-25 JRA-55 1948-present 1979-present 1979-present 1875-2008 1957-2002 1989-present 1979-present 1958-2012 1979-present ongoing ongoing thru 2009, ongoing Complete, in progress done ongoing ongoing underway thru 2010, ongoing 12
MERRA (NASA) 0.5
MERRA
13
0.6
14
Transport E-Pocean P-Eland
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An Informed Guide to Climate Datasets
Relevance to Earth System Model Evaluation
with
Objectives: Evaluate and assess selected climate datasets
Provide expert-user guidance addressing strengths & limitations Fills and major community gap and an immediate need
Features: Facilitate and enhance access to relevant datasets for diagnostic
analyses and model evaluation (including CMIP5/AR5)
Web-based guide, including a means for enabling additional
informed commentary and datasets outside of our own expertise Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Cryosphere, Biosphere Expertise on datasets NCAR proposal 16
IESA: US program Integrated Earth System Analysis Comprehensive reanalysis Trenberth and Olson (1988) Bengtsson and Shukla (1988) Arkin et al. (1993) Trenberth et al (2002; 2006; 2008) BAMS; J Cl; Eos
CCSP/USGCRP SAP 1.3 (2008)
17 Randy Dole talk Tuesday
Future needs: Observations and Analysis
Observations: in situ and from space (that satisfy the climate observing principles); A performance tracking system; Climate Data Records (CDRs) The ingest, archival, stewardship of data, data management; Access to data Data processing and analysis The analysis and reanalysis of the observations and derivation of products, Data assimilation and model initialization
18
Future needs: Models
Data assimilation and model initialization Better, more complete models Assessment of what has happened and why (attribution) including likely impacts on human and eco-systems; Prediction of near-term climate change over several decades: ensembles Statistical models: applications Downscaling, regional information Responsiveness to decision makers and users.
19
Climate Observations Process studies: atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and their interactions Sustained observations: the climate record Enhanced monitoring Analysis, assimilation and data products Data stewardship, data access, QC For JSC 2010: Observations white paper 20
Role of WCRP Advocate improved observations and analysis suitable for climate (satisfying the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles to ensure continuity of record). This especially includes those from space. Data set development: evaluating observations and promoting global reprocessing and reanalysis. Develop new products and datasets, analytical and diagnostic techniques, high level derived products: for use in understanding and analyzing climate variability and change, and for evaluating models. Mechanisms and modes of variability in climate anomalies; operational attribution, numerical experimentation in near real time to allow reliable statements to be made not only about what the state of the climate is, but also why it is the way it is and the mechanisms involved. 21
Role of WCRP Data assimilation and analysis: initializing of coupled models for prediction. Provide advice on best datasets for various purposes (climatologies and time series) and their merits and limitations. (Error bars are greatly needed.) High priority needs are to have assessments of datasets for use in evaluating climate models, and specifically those used in the AR5 IPCC report that will participate in the CMIP5 activity 22
Role of WCRP Help improve and promote sound data stewardship, including data archiving, management, and access. This includes making sure that climate-related data variables are reaching data archives, and that standards are set for archiving new types of data. Help make data accessible and available e.g., through the internet. Promote shared efforts for data quality control.
23
Climate Information System: WOAP role
24
Climate Information System: WOAP role:
continued
25
The challenge is to better determine:
1) 2) 3) 4) 5) how the climate system is changing how the forcings are changing how these relate to each other (incl. feedbacks) attribution of anomalies to causes what they mean for the immediate and more distant future (assessment) 6) Validate and improve models 7) seamless predictions on multiple time scales 8) how to use this information for informed planning and decision making 9) how to manage the data and reanalyze it routinely 10) how to disseminate products around the world 11) how to interact with users and stakeholders and add regional value From Trenberth et al 2002 26
