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SPC 2310 Simulation and Modeling

Topic 1: Introduction

Lesson 1 Introduction
 Terminology
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 A system is a collection of entities that act and

interact together to achieve some end
 The state of a system is a collection of variables
and their values needed to describe the system at
any particular time
 A variable is a mathematical quantity that defines
one key aspect of a system. A variable may be:
 Endogenous: Defines an aspect of the system but can affect
other systems
 Exogenous: Defines an aspect of another system but can
affect the behaviour of the system under study

Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Ways to Study a System
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Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Model vs Direct Experimentation

 A direct experiment is the process of actively extracting information

relating to the operations of a real system mainly via observation.
 A model is an abstract / virtual representation of a real system
which allows modeler to make predictions about future
behaviors of the system
 In creating a model we need to make assumptions / approximations,
both logical an mathematical, about how the real system works
 This is an attempt to distill from the mass of details about the real
system those aspects that are essential in studying the system
 If model structure is simple enough, we could use mathematical
methods to get exact information on questions of interest —
analytical solution
 If the model is complex, then a simulation is needed
Lesson 1 Introduction
Thursday, February 22, 2024
 Simulation

 Simulation: Imitate the operations of a facility or a

process, usually using a computer. However, simulation
also be conducted
 A simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world
process or system over time.
 Can be done by hand or on a computer,
 involves the generation of an artificial history of the real.
system
 Information in the artificial history used to draw inferences
concerning the operation characteristics of the real
system.

Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Types of Models
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Physical / Iconic
Scaled down/up representations
Mathematical / Analytical
An equation or a set of equations that define the
operations of a system
Analogue
Use of signals, graphs and charts to represent a
system

Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

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Why Model & Simulate
 Direct Experimentation can be disruptive
 Direct Experimentation can be dangerous
 Through S& M it is easy to compare alternatives
 Can study a system with a very long time frame
 To define the requirements of a new system. System
needed for experimentation might not exist
 Some variables about a system might be inaccessible in a
direct experiment
 Allow flexibility in modeling complex systems

Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 DISADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION
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 Each run of a stochastic simulation model produces only

estimates of a model’s true characteristics for a particular set
of input parameters. If a “valid” analytic model is available or
can be easily de developed, it will generally be preferable to a
simulation model.
 Simulation models are often expensive and time-consuming to
develop.
 If a model is not a “valid” representation of a system under
study, the simulation results, no matter how impressive they
appear, will provide little useful information about the actual
system.

Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Pitfalls to the successful completion of
a simulation study
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 Failure to have a well-defined set of objectives

at the beginning of the simulation study
 Inappropriate level of model detail
 Failure to communicate with management
throughout the course of the simulation study
 Misunderstanding of simulation by management
 Treating a simulation study as if it were
primarily an exercise in computer programming

Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 pitfalls
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 Failure to have people with a knowledge of simulation

methodology and statistics on the modeling team
 Failure to collect good system data
 Inappropriate simulation software
 Obliviously using simulation software products whose
complex marco statement may not be well documented
and may not implement the desired modeling logic
 Belief that easy-to-use simulation packages, which
require little or no programming, require a
significantly lower level of technical competence
 Misuse of animation
Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024
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 Failure to account correctly for sources of randomness

in the actual system
 Using arbitrary distributions (e.g., normal, uniform, or
trianglar) as input to the simualation
 Analyzing the output data from one simulation run
(replication) using formulas that assume independence
 Making a single replication of a particular system
design and treating the output statistics as the “true
answers”
 Comparing alternative system design on the basis of
one replication for each design
 Using the wrong performance measures
Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024
 Application Areas For Simulation

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 Designing and analyzing manufacturing systems

 Evaluating military weapons systems or their logistics
requirements
 Determining hardware requirements or protocols for
communications networks
 Determining hardware and software requirements for a
computer system

Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Applications
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 Designing and transportation systems such as airports, freeways,

ports, and subways
 Evaluating designs for service organizations such as call centers,
fast-food restaurants, hospitals, and post offices
 Reengineering of business processes
 Determining ordering policies for an inventory system
 Analyzing financial or economic systems

Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

14 Classification of Simulation Studies
1) Static Vs Dynamic
 Static models don’t change with the passage of time
 Dynamic models change with the passage of time
2) Deterministic Vs Stochastic
 Deterministic models change in predefined way
 The change in a Stochastic model is probabilistic
3) Discrete Vs Continuous
 Discrete models change at the occurrence of an event
 Continuous models
Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024
 S & M Process
 The process of simulation and modeling is comparable
to classical systems development methodologies such as
SDLC
 However, S & M places more emphasis to model
building, validation and verification and the design of
simulation experiments

15 Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Steps in Carrying out a S & M study

1. Formulate the problem and plan the study

a. Problem of interest is stated by manager.

b. One or more kickoff meeting for the study are conducted,
with the project manager, the simulation analysts, and
subject-matter experts (SMEs) in attendance. The
following issues are discussed:
 Overall objectives of the study
 Specific questions to be answered by the study
 Performance measures that will be used to evaluate the effeciency
of different system configurations
 Scope of the model
 System configurations to be modeled
 Software to be used
 Time frame for the study and the required resources

16 Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Introduction

2. Collect data and define a model.

a. Collect information on the system layout and operating
procedures.
 No single person or document is sufficient.

 Some people may have inaccurate information---make

sure that ture SMEs are identified.
 Operating procedures may not be formalized.
b. Collect data (if possible) to specify model parameters and
input probability distributions
c. Delineate the above information and data in an
“assumptions document,” which is the conceptual model
d. Collect data (if possible) on the performance of the existing
systsem (for validation purpose in Step 6)

17 Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Data Collection
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a. The level of model detail should depend on the following:

 Project objectives
 Performance measures
 Data availability
 Credibility concerns

 Computer constraints

 Opinions of SMEs

 Time and money constraints

b. There need not be a one-to-one correspondence between

each element of the model and the corresponding element
of the system.
c. Interact with the manager (and other key project personnel)
on a regular basis
Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024
 3. Is the conceptual model valid?

a. Perform a structured walk-through of the conceptual model using the

assumptions document before an audience of managers, analysts, and
SMEs
 Helps ensure that the model’s assumptions are correct and complete
 Promotes ownership of the model
 Take place before programming begins to avoid significant
reprogramming later
4. Construct a computer program and verify.
a. Program the model in a programming language or in simulation
software. Benefits of using a programming language are that one is
often known, they have a low purchase cost, and they may result in a
smaller model execution time. The use of simulation software, on the
other hand, reduces programming time and results in a lower project
cost.
b. Verify (debug) the simulation computer program.

19 Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 5. Make pilot runs.
a. Make pilot runs for validation purposes in Step 6.
6. Is the programed model valid?
a. If ther is an existing system, then compare model and system (from
Step 2) performance measures for existing system
b. Regardless of whether there is an existing system, the simulation
analysts and SMEs should review the model results for correctness.
c. Use sensitivity analyses to determine what model factors have a
significant impact on performance measures and, thus, have to be
modeled carefully.
7. Design experiments.
a. Specify the following for each system configuration of interest:
 Length of each run

 Length of the warmup period, if one is appropriate

 Number of independent simulation runs using different random numbers--

-facilitates construction of confidence intervals

20 Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 8. Make production runs.
a. Production runs are made for use in Step 9.
9. Analyze output data.
a. Two major objectives in analyzing output data are:
 Determining the absolute performance of certain system configurations

 Comparing alternative system configurations in a relative sense

10. Document, present, and use results.

a. Document assumptions (see Step 2), computer program, and study’s
results for use in the current and future projects.
b. Present study’s results.
 Use animation to communicate model to managers and other people who
are not familiar with all of the model details.
 Discuss model building and validation process to promote credibility.
c. Results are used in decision-making process if they are both valid and
credible.

21 Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024

 Formulate problem
and plan the study

Collect data and

define a model

Conceptual No
model valid?
Yes
Construct a computer
program and verify

Make pilot runs

No
Programmed
Model valid?
Yes

Design experiments

Make production runs

Analyze output data

Document, present,
22 and use results Lesson 1 Introduction Thursday, February 22, 2024