SIMULATION

This lecture is part of my Simulation Modeling & Analysis course. See more at http://sim.proffriedman.net/
SIMULATION TECHNIQUES

 A simulation imitates the operation of real-world processes or systems with the use of models. The
model represents the key behaviors and characteristics of the selected process or system while the
simulation represents how the model evolves under different conditions over time.
 Simulations are usually computer-based, using a software-generated model to provide support for
the decisions of managers and engineers as well as for training purposes. Simulation techniques aid
understanding and experimentation, as the models are both visual and interactive.
 Can be used to tune up performance, optimize a process, improve safety, testing theories, training staff
and even for entertainment in video games! Scientifically, modelling systems allows a user to gain an
insight into the effects of different conditions and courses of action.
 Can also be used when the real system is inaccessible or too dangerous to assess or when a system is
still in the design or theory stages. 2
SIMULATION TECHNIQUE

 Those processes based on using different sciences as mathematics, econometrics,

statistics and informatics in order to help specialist to see future possible actions or
approaches, based on using data form the past and create models to predict risks and
errors which may appear and could reduce their impact and most of all reducing the
costs and increase skills and knowledge through relationship ad multidisciplinary
work team.

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SCOPE OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES:

 1. Healthcare (Clinical) Simulators. Medical health simulators are developed and

deployed to teach healing and diagnostic procedures. It is also used to teach medical
concepts and decision making to personnel who are involved in the professions.
 2. Computer Simulators. Simulators have been proposed as an ideal tool for
assessment of students for clinical skills. Programmed patients and simulated clinical
situations, including mock disaster drills, have been used extensively for education
and evaluation. These "lifelike"simulations are expensive, and lack reproducibility. A
fully functional "3Pi" simulator would be the most specific tool available for teaching
and measurement of clinical skills. Such a simulator meets the goals of an objective
and standardized examination for clinical competence. This system is superior to
examinations that use "standard patients because it permits the quantitative
measurement or competence, as well as reproducing the same objective findings. 4
 3. Military Simulations. Military simulations are e models in which theories of
warfare can be tested and advanced without the need for actual hostilities. It is also
known as war games.They exist in different forms with various degree of realism.
 4. Finance Simulations. In financing computer simulation are often used for
scenario planning.

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 5. Flight Simulators. A flight simulator is used for the training of the pilots on the ground. A pilot
gets permission by this technique to crash his simulated "aircraft" without being hurt. Pilots are
trained with the use of flight simulators to operate aircraft in extremely dangerous situations, such as
landing with no engines, or complete electrical or hydraulic failures. Highfidelity visual systems and
hydraulic motion systems are included in most advanced simulators. The simulator is normally cheaper
to operate than a real trainer aircraft.
 6.Engineering, Technology or Process Simulation. Simulation is an important feature in
engineering systems or any system that involves many processes, For example, in electrical engineering,
delay lines may be used to simulate propagation delay and phase shift caused by an actual transmission
line. Similarly, dummy loads may be used to simulate impedance without simulating propagation, and is
used in situations where propagation is unwanted. A simulator may imitate only a few of the
operations and functions of the unit it simulates.
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HOW SIMULATION WORKS

 Simulation works through the use of intuitive simulation software to

create a visual mock up of a process. This visual simulation should include
details of timings, rules, resources and constraints, to accurately reflect
the real-world process.
 Ex 1) you can model a supermarket and the likely behaviors of customers as they move around the
shop as it becomes busier. This can inform decisions including staffing requirements, shop floor layout,
and supply chain needs.
 Ex 2) In a manufacturing environment where different parts of the line can be simulated to assess how their
processes interact with those of others. This can provide an overview of how the entire system will perform in
order to devise innovative methods to improve performance.
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WHY IS SIMULATION USED?

 used to evaluate the effect of process changes, new procedures and capital
investment in equipment. Engineers can use simulation to assess the performance of
an existing system or predict the performance of a planned system, comparing
alternative solutions and designs.
 used as an alternative to testing theories and changes in the real world, which can be
costly. Simulation can measure factors including system cycle times, throughput under
different loads, resource utilization, bottlenecks and choke points, storage needs,
staffing requirements, effectiveness of scheduling and control systems.

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WHAT CAN BE SIMULATED?

 Any system or process that has a flow of events can be simulated. As a

general rule, if you can draw a flowchart of the process, you can simulate
it. However, simulation is most effective when applied to processes or
equipment that change over time, have variable factors or random inputs.
 For example, our supermarket from earlier has variable and random factors due to
customer use times, requirements and stocks.

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TYPES OF SIMULATIONS

 Analog simulation. Physical simulation models, e.g., analog cockpit simulator for pilot training.
 Digital simulation – Continuous or Discrete
 Continuous simulation. Physical events are expressed as mathematical models using difference and differential equations to
express relationships. Deals with continuously changing variables, e.g., fluid dynamics (dams, waste disposal), monetary flow
models.
 Discrete-event Simulation (DES or DEVS). Models discrete entities.
 Hybrid. Some discrete, some continuous elements.
 System simulation models are (usually) large, complex computer programs that represent a Dynamic and
……………
Probabilistic system composed of people, machinery, computers, processes, etc.

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TYPES OF SIMULATION

 1. Discrete Event Simulation Modelling a system as it progresses through time, for

example;
 ➢ factory operations (stamping, turning, milling)
 ➢ traffic analysis (roads, networks, queues)
 2. Dynamic Simulation Modelling a system as it progresses through space, for
example;
 ➢ machine kinematics➢ human ergonomics
 ➢ aerodynamic testing
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 ➢ virtual prototyping
 3. Process Simulation Modelling physical interactions between two or more systems, for example;
 ➢ in-service product modelling
 ➢ in-manufacture product modelling
 ➢ weather forecasting
 4. Deterministic and Probabilistic Simulation: If a process is very complex or consist of multiple
stages with complicated (but known) procedural interactions between them then deterministic
simulation is used. The performance measures of this type of system would be extremely detailed and
time consuming. The process which is formulated as a simulation with fixed procedures (algorithms)
provides the determination of output and performance measure in a straightforward manner. A
probabilistic simulation follows a certain probability distribution because one or more independent
variables (e.g., the arrival rate of customers at a service-window) is probabilistic. 12
 5. Time Dependent and Time Independent Simulation: In time independent simulation it is not
necessary to know the exact time of happening the event.
 For example, in an inventory control situation, one may know that the demand of the inventory is five
units per day, but it is not necessary to know that the in which time the items was demanded. In time
dependent simulation it is required to know the exact time when the event is likely to occur.
 For example, in a queuing situation the precise time of arrival should be known.
 6. Visual Interactive Simulation: Computer graphic displays are used by the visual interactive
simulation to present the consequences of change in the value of input variation in the model. When
the simulation is running then the decision are implemented interactively. Dynamic systems that evolve
over time in terms of animation can be shown by these simulations. The progress of the simulation is
watched by the decision-maker in an animated form on a graphics terminal and can change the
simulation as it progresses. 13
 7. Business Games: Several participants are involved in a business game simulation model and they are required
to play a role in a game that simulates a realistic competitive situation. Individuals or teams compete to achieve
their goals, such as profit maximization, in competition or cooperation, with the other individuals or teams. The
few advantages of business games are:
 ➢ The knowledge and experience gained by the participants are more memorable than passive instruction and
they learn faster.
 ➢ To face the special circumstances complexities, inter-functional dependencies, unexpected events, and other
such factors can be introduced into the game.➢ The time compression - allowing many years of experience in
only minutes or hours - lets the participants try out actions that they would not be willing to risk in an actual
situation and see the result in the future.
 ➢ Provide insight into the behavior of an organization. The dynamics of team decision making style highlight the
roles assumed by individuals on the teams, the effect of personality types and managerial styles, the emergence of
team conflict and cooperation, and so on.
 8. Corporate and Financial Simulations: Corporate planning, especially the financial aspects use the corporate
and financial simulation. The models incorporate production, finance, marketing, and possibly other functions, into
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one model which can be deterministic or probabilistic when risk analysis is desired.
CONCLUSION

 All models are a simplified representation of reality, an abstraction.

 Simulation is just one type of model, a numerical model which presumes experimentation.
 A DES simulation model is discrete, stochastic and dynamic.
 Since it moves over time it must, therefore, include facilities for the collection of output measures that change
over time.

INTRO TO MODELING & SIMULATION 15

 Commercial – barber shop, bank, supermarket, gas station.
Transportation – toll booth, traffic light, ship loading /
EXAMPLES OF unloading, parking lot, elevators, CitiBike.

SYSTEMS TO Business to business – machine repair shop, inspection

stations, secretarial pools.
SIMULATE Social service: judicial system, legislative systems (bills
waiting for processing), health-care systems, foster care /
family court.

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WHEN TO SIMULATE:
SIMULATION VS. OTHER TECHNIQUES

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 Real vs. Simulation?
WHEN TO USE SIMULATION? Analytic vs. Simulation?

Consider using simulation when:

It is desired to observe a simulated history of the An analytic solution does not exist.
process over a period of time.
Time compression may be required for systems
with long time frames. The mathematics involved in the analytic
solution are more complicated than simulation.

“Real” physical experimentation is impossible, e.g.,

nonexistent system, disruptive system, destructive
testing. An education and training tool is desired.

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SIMULATION VS. ANALYTIC SOLUTION Which is better?

Simulation has been used to verify hypothesized analytic

models
Why must we choose
between them? Both
techniques have been used Simulation has been used to test the accuracy of
analytic models in which several simplifying
together. assumptions had been made

Simulation has been used to develop, and even suggest

the form of, analytic models.

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SIMULATION + ANALYTIC SOLUTION → THE METAMODEL

A Metamodel is an analytic model that is developed

using data generated from the simulation of the system of
interest.
 Metamodels have been used to
o carry out sensitivity analysis,
o answer “what-if” questions,
o answer inverse questions
o enhance the researcher’s understanding of the
processes that move the system
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ABOUT THE SIMULATION STUDY

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PROGRESS OF A SIMULATION STUDY

Simulation is actually a full-scale system study with

simulation at its core.
 Problem definition: Define the scope and objectives of the
simulation study. Identify the boundaries of the system under
study. Eliminate that which is exogenous to it.
 System analysis and design: Investigate the system under
study. Identify the performance characteristics, i.e., the measures SIMULATION
of effectiveness of the system. Identify the input variables
relevant to the objectives of the investigation. Collect and
analyze data. Where possible, fit the data to theoretical
probability distributions. Identify the parameters of the
processes involved, along with possible design points for the
simulation experiment.
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PROGRESS OF A SIMULATION STUDY

 Model design: Design the simulation model. This will likely be a

flowchart or some other type of abstract model. Test for validity,
if at all possible, e.g., face validity, expert walk-throughs, etc.
 Model building: Construct the simulation model. This step
includes selecting an appropriate computer programming
language, writing the code for the simulation program, verifying
(debugging) the simulation program.
 Model validation. Is the model a good approximation to the
real system? The simulation model is validated by one or more a
number of appropriate techniques, e.g., face validity, comparing
simulation-generated data to real data from a similar system, etc.
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PROGRESS OF A SIMULATION STUDY

Once the modeling-related tasks are completed, the

researcher will have a valid model (i.e., the computer
program) with which to experiment. Simulation is an
experimental methodology.
As with any statistical experiment, careful attention must be
paid to the design and analysis of simulation experiments. The
goal of the design is to ensure that the experiment contains
as much relevant information as possible subject, of course, to
certain feasibility constraints (e.g., cost). The goal of the
analysis is to extract as much information from the
experiment as possible.
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PROGRESS OF A SIMULATION STUDY

 Experimental design: Strategic Planning. Guided by and

depending upon the objectives of the simulation study — e.g.,
optimization, estimation, prediction — the simulation experiment
is designed. Tactical concerns, e.g., run length, number of
replications, variance reduction techniques, are decided.
 Simulation: Run the simulation experiment under the design
constraints previously decided upon.
 Statistical analysis: Analysis and interpretation. Drawing
inferences. Further statistical analysis, beyond the explicit
definition and testing of a mathematical metamodel, may be
required by the decision maker.
PROGRESS OF A SIMULATION STUDY

 Decision making: Data generated by the simulation model

have been transformed into information by the analysis phases.
In a well-designed study, these results meet the objectives
delineated in the problem definition phase. Use the results of the
simulation study in making decisions.
 Implementation: Putting the model and/or results to use. A
simulation metamodel may continue to be used as a decision-
making tool long after the simulation model itself is “put to bed.”

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 Better understanding of system processes

Parameter estimation

Some typical goals of a Comparing alternative systems

simulation study Selecting the best system

Ranking alternative systems

Prediction

Optimization

Factor screening

Determining functional relationships

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WHAT MAKES A
GOOD
SIMULATION?
CONCLUSION

In this lecture we have learned some of the most critical aspects about simulation modeling and
experimentation:
 When to use simulation
 Simulation vs. analytic solutions
 The simulation model in the context of the greater statistical experiment
 The steps in the progress of a simulation study
 Objectives of a simulation study
 What makes a good simulation

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ADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION

 1. Less Financial Risk Simulation is less expensive than real life experimentation. The
potential costs of testing theories of real-world systems can include those associated
with changing to an untested process, hiring staff or even buying new equipment.
Simulation allows you to test theories and avoid costly mistakes in real life.
 2. Exact Repeated Testing A simulation allows you to test different theories and
innovations time after time against the exact same circumstances. This means you can
thoroughly test and compare different ideas without deviation.
 3. Examine Long-Term Impacts A simulation can be created to let you see into the
future by accurately modelling the impact of years of use in just a few seconds. This
lets you see both short and long-term impacts so you can confidently make informed
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investment decisions now that can provide benefits years into the future.
DIS ADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION

 1. Less Financial Risk Simulation is less expensive than real life experimentation. The
potential costs of testing theories of real-world systems can include those associated
with changing to an untested process, hiring staff or even buying new equipment.
Simulation allows you to test theories and avoid costly mistakes in real life.
 2. Exact Repeated Testing A simulation allows you to test different theories and
innovations time after time against the exact same circumstances. This means you can
thoroughly test and compare different ideas without deviation.
 3. Examine Long-Term Impacts A simulation can be created to let you see into the
future by accurately modelling the impact of years of use in just a few seconds. This
lets you see both short and long-term impacts so you can confidently make informed
investment decisions now that can provide benefits years into the future.
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 7. Encourages In-Depth Thinking Even the process of designing a simulation and
determining the different parameters can offer solutions. By thinking in-depth about a
process or procedure it is possible to come up with solutions or innovations without
even using the final simulation.
 8. Improve Stakeholder Buy-In A visual simulation can also help improve buy-in
from partners, associates and stakeholders. You can visually demonstrate the results
of any process changes and how they were achieved, improving engagement with
interested parties or even enabling a simulation-based sales pitch.

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LIMITATIONS

 1. Simulation does not produce optimum results. When the model deals with
uncertainties, the results of simulation are only reliable approximations subject to
statistical errors.
 2. Quantification of the variables is another difficulty. In a number of situations, it is
not possible to quantify all the variables that affect the behavior of the system.
 3. In very large and complex problems, the large number of variables and the
interrelationships between them make the problem very unwieldy and hard to
program. The number of variables may be too large and may exceed the capacity of
the available computer.
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 4. Simulation is, by no means a cheap method of analysis. In a number of
situations, simulation is comparatively costlier and time consuming. A
good simulation model may be very expensive. Simulation often requires
a significant amount of computer time and is therefore expensive.
 5. Simulation generates a way of evaluating solutions but does not
generate solutions themselves.

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 6. Simulation is not precise. It does not yield an answer but merely
provides a set of the system’s responses to different operating
conditions. In many cases, this lack of precision is difficult to measure.
 7. It is a trial-and-error method that may produce different solutions in
repeated runs.
 8. The difficulty in finding the optimal values increases due to an increase
in the number of parameters
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EXAMPLES

 Automotive  Military Applications.

 Biomechanics  Network Systems
 City and Urban Planning  Project Management.
 Digital Lifecycle Design  Robotics
 Disaster Preparation  Production Systems
 Economics and Finance  Sales
 Engineering Systems.  Satellites and Space
 Ergonomics.  Sport
 Flight Simulation
 Weather
 Marine Craft Simulation

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PHASES OF SIMULATION

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