AIN SHAMS UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
SPECIALIZED ENGINEERING PROGRAMS
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Summer 2024 Course Code: PHM113s / PHM111s Time allowed: 2Hrs.

Probability and Statistics
The Exam Consists of Four Questions in Four Pages. Maximum Marks: 50/60 Marks 1/4
‫تعليمات هامة‬
.‫• حيازة التيلفون املحمول مفتوحا داخل لجنة األمتحان تعتبر حالة غش تستوجب العقاب وإذا كان ضرورى الدخول باملحمول فيوضع مغلق فى الحقائب‬
.‫• ال يسمح بدخول سماعة األذن أو البلوتوث‬
.‫• اليسمح بدخول أي كتب أو مالزم أو أوراق داخل اللجنة واملخالفة تعتبر حالة غش‬
.‫• ممنوع استخدام اآلالت الحاسبة املبرمجة و التى تستطيع الرسم‬
Question (1): (25% of total Grade)

a) Based on the following ogive curve, construct a grouped frequency distribution

table. Then, evaluate the mean, mode, and median, and discuss the distribution
shape

Ogive Curve
120 108
99
Cumulative Frequency

100
80 71

60
40 28
20 0 6
0
. 89.5 98.5 107.5 116.5 125.5 134.5
Class Boundary

Class CF f x (midpoint)
90 98 6 6 94
99 107 28 22 103
108 116 71 43 112
117 125 99 28 121
126 134 108 9 130
108

mode 112.75
mean 113
median 112.942
Positive skewed
 𝟏𝟑
b) For the given data, find the IQR corresponding to a standard score 𝒁𝒓 = ,
√𝟒𝟒𝟒
√𝟒𝟒𝟒
median=61, and a coefficient of variation of of its maximum absolute value.
𝟓𝟐

𝟐𝟕, 𝐫, 𝟐𝟎, 𝟓𝟕, 𝐭, 𝟔𝟔

𝝈 = √𝟒𝟒𝟒 , 𝒓 = 𝟔𝟓
𝝁 = 𝟓𝟐 𝒕 = 𝟕𝟕
Question (2): (25% of total Grade)

a) Two Laptops are selected at random from a lot that contains 3 HP Laptops, 2 Dell
Laptops, and 3 Lenovo Laptops. If X is the number of HP Laptops selected and Y
is the number of Dell Laptops selected, find:

i) The joint probability function f(x, y) .

ii) The correlation coefficient between X and Y.

y 𝒙 0 1 2
𝟑 𝟗 𝟑
0
𝟐𝟖 𝟐𝟖 𝟐𝟖
𝟑 𝟑
1 0
𝟏𝟒 𝟏𝟒
𝟏
2 0 0
𝟐𝟖

3 1 27
𝐸(𝑋) = , 𝐸(𝑌) = , 𝐸(𝑥 2 ) =
4 2 28
4 45 9
𝐸(𝑌 2 ) = , Var (𝑥) = , Var (𝑦) =
7 112 28
ii) 3 9
𝐸(𝑋𝑌) = , Cov (𝑥, 𝑦) = −
14 56
𝐂𝐨𝐯 (𝒙, 𝒚) 𝟏
𝝆𝒙,𝒚 = =−
𝒂𝒙 ⋅ 𝜽𝒚 √𝟓

b) Let X be random variable with probability density function:

−3𝑥
𝑓(𝑥) = { 𝐶 𝑒 𝑥>0
0 𝑂𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Find:
i) C
ii) P(X > 1)
iii) Var (x)
∞
i) ∫0 𝑐𝑒 −3𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1 ⇒ 𝑐(−1/3(0 − 1)) = 1 ⇒ 𝑐 = 3
1
ii) ii) 𝑃(𝑥 > 1) = 1 − ∫0 3𝑒 −3𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = −𝑒 −3𝑥 |10 = (𝑒 −3 )
 ∞
∞ 𝑒 −3𝑥 2 𝑒 −3𝑥 1 1
iii) 𝐸(𝑥) = ∫ ⬚0 𝑥 ⋅ 3𝑒 −3𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 3𝑥 ⋅ − 3 −3 | = 3 (1 − 0) = 3
−3 9 0
∞
2 𝟏
𝐸(𝑥 2 ) = ∫ ⬚ 3𝑥 2 ⋅ 𝑒 −3𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = , 𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝒙) =
0 9 𝟗

Question (3): (25% of total Grade)

.

a) A box I contains 3 red balls and 2 green balls. Another box II contains 1 red
ball and 4 green balls. One box is selected at random, and then a ball is drawn
from the selected box. If the drawn ball is red, what is the probability that it
was drawn from the first box?
Let's define the events:

B1: Selecting the first box.

B2: Selecting the second box.

R: Drawing a red ball.

Given:

P(B1)= 0.5

P(B2)= 0.5.
3
𝑃(𝑅 ∣ 𝐵1) = 5 (probability of drawing a red ball from the first box).

1
𝑃(𝑅 ∣ 𝐵1) = 5 (probability of drawing a red ball from the second box).

4
𝑃(𝑅) = 𝑃( 𝑅 ∣ 𝐵1 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵1) + 𝑃( 𝑅 ∣ 𝐵2 ) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵2) =
10
𝑃(𝑅∣𝐵1 )⋅𝑃(𝐵1 )
𝑃(𝐵1 ∣ 𝑅) = = 0.75
𝑃(𝑅)

b) A certain drug is effective in treating a disease 80% of the time. A doctor

administers the drug to 15 patients. The effect of the drug on each patient is
independent of the others.

i) What is the probability that exactly 12 patients will be successfully treated

ii) Find the expected number of patients for whom the drug will not be
effective?
15
𝑃(𝑋 = 12) = ( )(0.8)12 (0.2)3 = 0.2501
12
𝐸( 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒) = 𝑛𝑞 = 15 ∗ 0.2 = 3

Question (4): (25% of total Grade)

a) In a university, the scores of a standardized test are normally distributed with a
mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 100.

i) What percentage of students scored between 450 and 600?

ii) What is the probability that a randomly selected student scored more than 700?
 iii) Determine the grade that 90% of students get below.
The standard Normal distribution Tables are given in pages 3 and 4
1. 𝑃(450 < 𝑋 < 600) = 𝑃(𝑍 < 1.0) − 𝑃(𝑍 < −0.5) = 0.8413 − 0.3085 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟑𝟐𝟖
2. 𝑃(𝑋 > 700) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 < 2.0) = 1 − 0.9772 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟐𝟖
3. From the standard normal distribution table, find 𝑍 such that 𝑃(𝑍 < 𝑧) = 0.90.
The z-score corresponding to 90% is approximately 𝑍 = 1.28.
Convert the Z-Score Back to a Raw Score:

𝑿 = 𝝁 + 𝒁 ⋅ 𝝈 = 𝟓𝟎𝟎 + 𝟏. 𝟐𝟖 ⋅ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟔𝟐𝟖

b) A shipment contains 5 defective and 10 non-defective items. If 7 items are

selected without replacement, what is the probability of getting at least 4 defective
items
Hypergeometric Probability
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 5)
(5 𝐶 4) ∗ (10 𝐶 3)
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = ≈ 0.0932
(15 𝐶 7)
(5 𝐶 5) ∗ (10 𝐶 2)
𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = ( ≈ 0.0069
(15 𝐶 7)
𝑃(𝑋 = 4 𝑜𝑟 5) = 0.1225 + 0.0214 ≈ 0.10023

c) State true or false with explanation

i) 𝜌(𝑎 𝑌, 𝑏 𝑋) = 𝑎2 𝑏 2 𝜌(𝑋, 𝑌) 𝜌: Correlation coefficient
F → 𝜌(𝑎 𝑌, 𝑏 𝑋) = 𝜌(𝑋, 𝑌)
ii) For regular deck, 𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡|𝐴𝑐𝑒) = 0.25 and the two events are
independent T

END of Exam, Good Luck

Examination Committee: Exam. Date :
Dr. Othman A. M. Omar, Dr. Ahmed M. Elsherbeny, Dr. Islam Samir, and Dr. Amr Khaled 29 Aug. 2024