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PD Notes

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution used to model the likelihood of a certain number of rare events occurring in a fixed time or space, characterized by the parameter λ (lambda). It assumes events occur independently at a constant average rate, and its probability mass function is defined as P(X = k) = e−λ λ^k / k!. Key characteristics include memorylessness, independent increments, and the ability to approximate the binomial distribution under certain conditions.

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8 views3 pages

PD Notes

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution used to model the likelihood of a certain number of rare events occurring in a fixed time or space, characterized by the parameter λ (lambda). It assumes events occur independently at a constant average rate, and its probability mass function is defined as P(X = k) = e−λ λ^k / k!. Key characteristics include memorylessness, independent increments, and the ability to approximate the binomial distribution under certain conditions.

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venkatagayathri069
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The Poisson distribution is a type of discrete probability distribution that calculates the

likelihood of a certain number of events happening in a fixed time or space, assuming the
events occur independently and at a constant rate.

It is characterized by a single parameter, λ (lambda), which represents the average rate of


occurrence of the event. The distribution is used when the events are rare and the
number of occurrences is non-negative and can take on integer values (0, 1, 2, 3,…).

The key assumptions of the Poisson distribution are:


1. Events occur independently of each other.
2. The average rate of occurrence (λ) is constant over the given interval.
3. The number of events can be any non-negative integer.
In summary, the Poisson distribution is used to model the likelihood of events happening at
a certain rate within a fixed time or space, under the assumptions of independence and
constant occurrence.

Poisson Distribution Formula


Poisson distribution is characterized by a single parameter, lambda (λ), which represents
the average rate of occurrence of the events. The probability mass function of the Poisson
distribution is given by:
P (X = k) = e−λ λK / k!
Where,
 P(X = k) is the Probability of Observing k Events
 e is the Base of the Natural Logarithm (approximately 2.71828)
 λ is the Average Rate of Occurrence of Events
 k is the Number of Events that Occur

Poisson Distribution Characteristics


 Memorylessness: Events in a Poisson process are memoryless, meaning the
probability of an event occurring in the future is independent of the past, given
the current state. For example, if you’re waiting for a bus, the probability of the
bus arriving in the next minute doesn’t depend on how long you’ve already been
waiting.
 Independent Increments: The number of events occurring in non-overlapping
intervals is independent. For instance, if you’re counting the number of cars
passing through an intersection in one minute, the number of cars in the next
minute is independent of the number in the previous minute.
 Rare Events Approximation: When the average rate of occurrence (λ) is large
and the probability of a single event is small, the Poisson distribution can
approximate the binomial distribution. This is known as the “rare events”
approximation, where the binomial distribution with a large number of trials and
a small probability of success converges to a Poisson distribution.
 Skewness and Kurtosis: Poisson distribution is positively skewed (skewness >
0) and leptokurtic (kurtosis > 0), meaning it has a longer tail on the right side
and heavier tails than the normal distribution. However, for large values of λ, it
becomes increasingly symmetric and bell-shaped, resembling a normal
distribution.
Probability mass function graphs
Probability mass function graph is a visual representation of a Poisson distribution that can
be represented visually as a graph of the. A probability mass function is a function that
describes a discrete probability distribution.
The events with highest probability is represented by the peak of the distribution—
the mode.
 When λ is a non-integer, the mode is the closest integer smaller than λ.
 When λ is an integer, there are two modes: λ and λ−1.
When λ is low, the distribution is much more distributed on the right side of its peak than
its left (right-skewed).
As λ increases, the distribution starts to appear more and more similar to a normal
distribution. When λ is 10 or greater, a normal distribution is a good approximation of the
Poisson distribution.
Difference between Binomial and Poisson Distribution
The key differences between Poisson Distribution and Binomial Distribution are listed in
the following table:
Difference between Binomial and Poisson Distribution

Aspect Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution

Nature Discrete Discrete

Number of Trials Fixed (n) Unlimited

Outcome Success or Failure Rare Events

Parameter Probability of Success (p) Average Event Rate (λ)

Possible Values 0 to n 0, 1, 2, . . .

Mean μ=n⨉p μ=λ

Variance σ2 = n ⨉ p ⨉ (1 – p) σ2 = λ

Limited to a fixed number Rare events over a large


Applicability of trials population

Flipping a coin multiple Counting occurrences of an


Example times event

Independent trials, constant Rare events, low


Assumptions p probability of success

Poisson Distribution Examples


Example 1: If 4% of the total items made by a factory are defective. Find the
probability that less than 2 items are defective in the sample of 50 items.
Solution:
Here we have, n = 50, p = (4/100) = 0.04, q = (1-p) = 0.96, λ = 2
Using Poisson’s Distribution,
P(X = 0) = 20e−20!0!20e−2 = 1/e2 = 0.13534
P(X = 1) = 21e−21!1!21e−2 = 2/e2 = 0.27068
Hence the probability that less than 2 items are defective in sample of 50 items is given by:
P( X > 2 ) = P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 ) = 0.13534 + 0.27068 = 0.40602
Example 2: If the probability of a bad reaction from medicine is 0.002, determine the
chance that out of 1000 persons more than 3 will suffer a bad reaction from medicine.
Solution:
Here we have, n = 1000, p = 0.002, λ = np = 2
X = Number of person suffer a bad reaction
Using Poisson’s Distribution
P(X > 3) = 1 – {P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)}
P(X = 0) = 20e−20!0!20e−2 = 1/e2
P(X = 1) = 21e−21! 1!21e−2 = 2/e2
P(X = 2) = 22e−22! 2!22e−2 = 2/e2
P(X = 3) = 23e−23!3!23e−2 = 4/3e2
P(X > 3) = 1 – [19/3e2] = 1 – 0.85712 = 0.1428

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