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677bdd626199af283a1a44f0 Chapter4.ContinuousRandomVariables

Chapter 4 discusses continuous random variables and their associated probability distributions, including definitions, examples, and key concepts such as probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions. It covers the mean and variance of continuous random variables, as well as specific distributions like the continuous uniform and normal distributions. The chapter provides various examples and exercises to illustrate these concepts.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
8 views56 pages

677bdd626199af283a1a44f0 Chapter4.ContinuousRandomVariables

Chapter 4 discusses continuous random variables and their associated probability distributions, including definitions, examples, and key concepts such as probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions. It covers the mean and variance of continuous random variables, as well as specific distributions like the continuous uniform and normal distributions. The chapter provides various examples and exercises to illustrate these concepts.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and

Probability Distributions

Course Name: PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Lecturer: Dr. Duong Thi Viet An

Hanoi, 2025

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 1 / 50
Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 2 / 50
4.1 Continuous Random Variables

Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 3 / 50
4.1 Continuous Random Variables

4.1 Continuous Random Variables

Definition
A continuous random variable is a random variable with an interval
(either finite or infinite) of real numbers for its range.

Example
The time until a projectile returns to earth.
The volume of gasoline that is lost to evaporation during the filling of
a gas tank.
The outside diameter of a machined shaft.
The weight of an injection-molded plastic part.
The current in an electronic circuit.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 4 / 50
4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 5 / 50
4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density


Functions
For a continuous random variable X,
a probability density function is a
function such that

1) f (x) ≥ 0
Z +∞
2) f (x)dx = 1
−∞
Z b
3) P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = f (x)dx.
a

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 6 / 50
4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density


Functions
For a continuous random variable X,
a probability density function is a
function such that

1) f (x) ≥ 0
Z +∞
2) f (x)dx = 1
−∞
Z b
3) P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = f (x)dx.
a

Note
If X is a continuous random variable, for any x1 and x2 ,

P (x1 ≤ X ≤ x2 ) = P (x1 < X ≤ x2 ) = P (x1 ≤ X < x2 ) = P (x1 < X < x2 ).

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 6 / 50
4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density


Functions
Example 1: Let the continuous random variable X denote the current
measured in a thin copper wire in milliamperes. Assume that the range
of X is [0, 20mA], and assume that the probability density function of
X is f (x) = 0.05 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 20. What is the probability that a current
measurement is less than 10 milliamperes?

Z 10 Z 10
P (X < 10) = f (x)dx = 0.05dx = 0.5.
0 0

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density


Functions
Example 2: Let the continuous random variable X denote the diameter of a
hole drilled in a sheet metal component. The target diameter is 12.5 millimeters.
Most random disturbances to the process result in larger diameters. Historical
data show that the distribution of X can be modeled by a probability density
function f (x) = 20e−20(x−12.5) , x ≥ 12.5. If a part with a diameter larger than
12.60 millimeters is scrapped, what proportion of parts is scrapped?

Z +∞ Z +∞
P (X > 12.6) = f (x)dx = 20e−20(x−12.5) dx = 0.135
12.6 12.6
Similarly, we can calculate P (12.5 < x < 12.6). Because the total area under
f (x) equals 1, we can also calculate P (12.5 < x < 12.6) = 1 − P (X > 12.6).
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density


Functions
Exercise 1: Suppose that the probability density function of a continuous
random variable X is:

3(8x − x2 )
f (x) = , 0 < x < 8.
256
Determine the following:
a) P (X < 2) b) P (X < 9)
c) P (2 < X < 4) d) P (X > 6).
Exercise 2: The probability density function of the length of a metal
rod is
f (x) = cx2 , 2 ≤ x < 3.
a) What is the value of c?
b) Find P (X < 2 or X ≥ 8).

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 9 / 50
4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 10 / 50
4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

Cumulative Distribution Function


The cumulative distribution function of a continuous random variable
X is
Zx
F (x) = P (X ≤ x) = f (u)du
−∞

for −∞ < x < +∞.

The probability density function of a continuous random variable can be


determined from the cumulative distribution function by differentiating.
0
f (x) = F (x).

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

Remark: If X is continuous random variable with cumulative


distribution function F (x) then we can use:

P (a < X < b) = F (b) − F (a).

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

Example 3
For the copper current measurement in Example 1, the cumulative distri-
bution function of the random variable X consists of three expressions.
If x < 0, f (x) = 0. Therefore, FZ(x) = 0.
x
If 0 ≤ X < 20, one has F (x) = f (u)du = 0.05x
Z x 0

If x ≥ 20 then F (x) = f (u)du = 1.


0
Therefore, 
0
 x<0
F (x) = 0.05x 0 ≤ x < 20

1 20 ≤ x.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

Example 4
For the drilling operation in Example 2, F (x) consists of two expressions.
If x < 12.5: F (x) = 0.Z x
If x ≥ 12.5 : F (x) = 20e−20(u−12.5) du = 1 − e−20(x−12.5) .
12.5
Therefore,
(
0 x < 12.5
F (x) =
1 − e−20(x−12.5) 12.5 ≤ x.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions


Example 5
The time until a chemical reaction is complete (in milliseconds) is ap-
proximated by the cumulative distribution function
(
0 x<0
F (x) = −0.01x
1−e 0≤x

Determine the probability density function of X. What proportion of


reactions is complete within 200 milliseconds?

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions


Example 5
The time until a chemical reaction is complete (in milliseconds) is ap-
proximated by the cumulative distribution function
(
0 x<0
F (x) = −0.01x
1−e 0≤x

Determine the probability density function of X. What proportion of


reactions is complete within 200 milliseconds?
Answer:
(
0 x<0
f (x) =
0.01e−0.01x 0 ≤ x.
P (X < 200) = F (200) = 1 − e−2 = 0.8647.
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random


Variable
Mean and Variance
Suppose X is a continuous random variable with probability density function
f (x). The mean or expected value of X, denoted as µ or E(X), is
+∞
Z
µ = E(X) = xf (x)dx.
−∞

The variance of X, denoted as σ 2 or V (X), is


+∞
Z +∞
Z
2 2
σ = V (X) = (x − µ) f (x)dx = x2 f (x)dx − µ2 .
−∞ −∞

The standard deviation of X is σ = σ2 .

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random


Variable
Example 6
For the copper current measurement in Example 1, the mean of X is
+∞
Z Z20
E(X) = xf (x)dx = 0.05xdx = 10.
−∞ 0

Z20
V (X) = (x − 10)2 (0.05)dx = 33.33.
0

What is the expected value of the squared current?

Z20 20
2 0.05x3
E(X ) = 0.05x2 dx = = 133.33.
3 0
0
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 19 / 50
4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

4.6 Continuous Uniform Distribution

Continuous Uniform Distribution


A continuous random variable X with probability density function

 1 a≤x≤b
f (x) = b − a
0 otherwise

is a continuous uniform random variable.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

Cumulative Distribution Functions




0 x<a
x − a
F (x) = a≤x<b

 b−a
1 x ≥ b.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

Mean and Variance


If X is a continuous uniform random variable over a ≤ x ≤ b,
b+a
µ = E(X) = .
2
The variance of X is
(b − a)2
σ 2 = V (X) = .
12

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 22 / 50
4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution


Example 7
Let the continuous random variable X denote the current measured
in a thin copper wire in milliamperes. Assume that the range of X
is [0, 20mA], and assume that the probability density function of X is
f (x) = 0.05, 0 ≤ x ≤ 20. What is the probability that a measurement
of current is between 5 and 10 milliamperes?

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution


Example 7
Let the continuous random variable X denote the current measured
in a thin copper wire in milliamperes. Assume that the range of X
is [0, 20mA], and assume that the probability density function of X is
f (x) = 0.05, 0 ≤ x ≤ 20. What is the probability that a measurement
of current is between 5 and 10 milliamperes?

Z10
P (5 < x < 10) = 0.05dx = 0.25
5

E(X) = (20 + 0)/2 = 10mA


and r
(20 − 0)2
σ= = 33.33mA2 .
12
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 23 / 50
4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

Exercise 1: Suppose X has a continuous uniform distribution over the


interval [1; 10].
a) Determine the mean, variance and standard deviation of X.
b) Find P (X < 6.5).
c) Determine the cumulative distribution function of X.
Exercise 2: Suppose X has a continuous uniform distribution over [5; 15].
What is the mean and variance of Y = 8X?

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 24 / 50
4.6 Normal Distribution

Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 25 / 50
4.6 Normal Distribution

4.6 Normal Distribution


A random variable X with probability density function

1 −(x−µ)2
f (x) = √ e 2σ2 , −∞ < x < +∞
2πσ
is a normal random variable with parameters µ, where −∞ < µ < +∞
and σ > 0.
Also

E(X) = µ and V (X) = σ 2

and the notation N (µ, σ 2 ) is used to denote the distribution.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 26 / 50
4.6 Normal Distribution

4.6 Normal Distribution

Standard Normal Random Variable


A normal random variable with

µ=0 and σ2 = 1

is called a standard normal random variable and is denoted as Z.


The cumulative distribution function of Z is denoted as

Φ(z) = P (Z ≤ z).

If X is a normal random variable with E(X) = µ and V (X) = σ 2 ,


the random variable
X −µ
Z=
σ
is a standard normal random variable.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 27 / 50
4.6 Normal Distribution

4.6 Normal Distribution

Standardizing to Calculate a Probability


Suppose X is a normal random variable with mean µ and variance σ 2 .
Then,  
X −µ x−µ
P (X ≤ x) = P ≤ = P (Z ≤ z)
σ σ
where Z is a standard normal random variable, and z = (x−µ)σ is the
z -value obtained by standardizing X. The probability is obtained by
using Appendix Table III with z = (x − µ)/σ.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 28 / 50
4.6 Normal Distribution

4.6 Normal Distribution

Example 8
1) P (Z > 1.26) = 1 − P (Z ≤ 1.26) = 1 − 0.89616 = 0.10384
2) P (Z < −0.86) = 0.19490
3) P (Z > −1.37) = P (Z < 1.37) = 0.91465
4) P (−1.25 < Z < 0.37) = P (Z < 0.37) − P (Z < −1.25) =
0.64431 − 0.10565 = 0.53866
5) P (Z ≤ −4.6) cannot be found exactly from Appendix Table III. How-
ever, the last entry in the table can be used to find that P (Z ≤ −3.99) =
0.00003. Because P (Z ≤ −4.6) < P (Z ≤ −3.99), P (Z ≤ −4.6) is
nearly zero.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 29 / 50
4.6 Normal Distribution

4.6 Normal Distribution

Example 9
Suppose the current measurements in a strip of wire are assumed to follow a
normal distribution with a mean of 10 miliamperes and a variance of 4 (mil-
liamperes). Determine the value for which the probability that a current mea-
surement is below this value is 0.98

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 30 / 50
4.6 Normal Distribution

4.6 Normal Distribution

Example 9
Suppose the current measurements in a strip of wire are assumed to follow a
normal distribution with a mean of 10 miliamperes and a variance of 4 (mil-
liamperes). Determine the value for which the probability that a current mea-
surement is below this value is 0.98
We need the value of x such that P (X < x) = 0.98. By standardizing, this
probability expression can be written as

P (X < x) = P (Z < (x − 10)/2) = 0.98.

Appendix Table III is used to find the z-value such that

P (Z < z) = 0.98

The nearest probability from Table III results in P (Z < 2.05) = 0.97982.
Therefore, (x − 10)/2 = 2.05, x = 14.1.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 30 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 31 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and


Poisson Distributions
If X is a binomial random variable with parameters n and p,
X − np
Z=p
np(1 − p)

is approximately a standard normal random variable. To approximate a


binomial probability with a normal distribution, a continuity correction is applied
as follows:
!
x + 0.5 − np
P (X ≤ x) = P (X ≤ x + 0.5) ∼ =P Z≤ p
np(1 − p)

and !
x − 0.5 − np
P (x ≤ X) = P (x − 0.5 ≤ X) ∼
=P p ≤Z
np(1 − p)
The approximation is good for np > 5 and n(1 − p) > 5.
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 32 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and


Poisson Distributions

If X is a Poisson random variable with E(X) = λ and V (X) = λ,

X −λ
Z= √
λ
is approximately a standard normal random variable. The same
continuity correction used for the binomial distribution can also be applied.
The approximation is good for

λ > 5.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 33 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and


Poisson Distributions

Example 10
The manufacturing of semiconductor chips produces 2% defective chips.
Assume the chips are independent and that a lot contains 1000 chips.
(a) Approximate the probability that more than 25 chips are defective.
(b) Approximate the probability that between 20 and 30 chips are defec-
tive.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 34 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and


Poisson Distributions

Example 10
The manufacturing of semiconductor chips produces 2% defective chips.
Assume the chips are independent and that a lot contains 1000 chips.
(a) Approximate the probability that more than 25 chips are defective.
(b) Approximate the probability that between 20 and 30 chips are defec-
tive.
Let X denote the number of defective chips in the lot. Then,
E(X) = 1000(0.02)= 20, V (X) = 1000(0.02)(0.98) = 19.6.
a) P (X > 25) ∼
= P Z > 25.5−20

19.6
= P (Z > 1.24) = 1 − P (Z ≤ 1.24) =
0.107
b) P (20 < X < 30) ∼
= P (20.5 < X < 29.5) = P (0.11 < Z < 2.15) =
0.9842 − 0.5438 = 0.44.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 34 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Example 11
In a digital communication channel, assume that the number of bits
received in error can be modeled by a binomial random variable, and
assume that the probability that a bit is received in error is 1 × 10−5 . If
16 million bits are transmitted, what is the probability that 150 or fewer
errors occur?
Let the random variable X denote the number of errors. Then X is a
binomial random variable. !
150.5 − 160
P (X ≤ 150) = P (X ≤ 150.5) ∼=P Z≤ p
160(1 − 10−5 )
= P (Z ≤ −0.75) = 0.227

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 35 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

4.8 Exponential Distribution


Example 12
Assume that the number of asbestos particles in a squared meter of dust
on a surface follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 1000. If a
squared meter of dust is analyzed, what is the probability that 950 or
fewer particles are found?

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 36 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

4.8 Exponential Distribution


Example 12
Assume that the number of asbestos particles in a squared meter of dust
on a surface follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 1000. If a
squared meter of dust is analyzed, what is the probability that 950 or
fewer particles are found?
This probability can be expressed exactly as:
950 −1000
X e 1000x
P (X ≤ 950) = .
x!
x=0

The computational difficulty is clear. The probability can be approxi-


mated as
 
950.5 − 1000
P (X ≤ 950) = P (X ≤ 950.5) ≈ P Z ≤ √
1000
= P (Z ≤ −1.57) = 0.058.
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 36 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and


Poisson Distributions

Exercise 1
Hits to a high-volume Web site are assumed to follow a Poisson
distribution with a mean of 10,000 per day. Approximate each of the
following:
(a) The probability of more than 20,000 hits in a day
(b) The probability of less than 9900 hits in a day
(c) The value such that the probability that the number of hits in a day
exceeds the value is 0.01
(d) Approximate the expected number of days in a year (365 days) that
exceed 10,200 hits.
(e) Approximate the probability that over a year (365 days) more than 15
days each have more than 10,200 hits.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 37 / 50
4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and


Poisson Distributions
Exercise 2
Suppose that X is a Poisson random variable with λ = 6.
(a) Compute the exact probability that X is less than 4
(b) Approximate the probability that X is less than 4 and compare to the
result in part (a).
(c) Approximate the probability that 8 < X < 12.

Exercise 3
Suppose that X has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 64.
Approximate the following probabilities:
(a) P (X > 72)
(b) P (X < 64)
(c) P (60 < X ≤ 68)

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 38 / 50
4.8 Exponential Distribution

Content

1 4.1 Continuous Random Variables

2 4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions

3 4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4 4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

5 4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

6 4.6 Normal Distribution


7 4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions

8 4.8 Exponential Distribution

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 39 / 50
4.8 Exponential Distribution

4.8 Exponential Distribution

Exponential Distribution
The random variable X that equals the distance between successive
events of a Poisson process with mean number of events λ > 0 per
unit interval is an exponential random variable with parameter λ. The
probability density function of X is
f (x) = λe−λx for 0 ≤ x < ∞.

F (x) = P (X ≤ x) = 1 − e−λx , x ≥ 0.

If the random variable X has an exponential distribution with


parameter λ,
1 1
µ = E(X) = and σ 2 = V (X) = .
λ λ2

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4.8 Exponential Distribution

4.8 Exponential Distribution

Example 12
Suppose X has an exponential distribution with λ = 2. Determine the
following:
(a) P (X ≤ 0)
(b) P (X ≥ 2)
(c) P (X ≤ 1)
(d) P (1 < X < 2)
(e) Find the value of x such that P (X < x) = 0.05.

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4.8 Exponential Distribution

Sample Questions

Question 1: Suppose X is a uniform continuous random variable over


the interval [40, 70]. Find the standard deviation of X.
a) 3.03 b) 1.58 c) 8.66 d) 31.75 e) None of the other choices
is correct
Question 2: The weekly salaries of elementary school teachers in one
state are normally distributed with a mean of $490 and a standard devia-
tion of $45. What is the probability that a randomly selected elementary
school teacher earns more than $525 a week?
LetP (Z < 0.778) = 0.7817, P (Z < 0.163) = 0.5646.

a) 0.7823 b) 0.4354 c) 0.2823


d) 0.2183 e) None of the other choices is correct.

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4.8 Exponential Distribution

Sample Questions
Question 3: A supermarket manager has determined that the amount
of time customers spend in the supermarket is approximately normally
distributed with a mean of 45 minutes and a standard deviation of 6
minutes. Find the probability that a customer spends between 39 and
43 minutes in the supermarket.
Let P (Z < −1) = 0.159, P (Z < −0.33) = 0.371, P (Z < 0.02) =
0.508 and P (Z < 0.85) = 0.802.
a)0.823 b) 0.212 c) 0.345 d) 0.646
e) None of the other choices is correct
Question 4: Transportation officials tell us that 70% of drivers wear
seat belts while driving. Use normal distribution to approximate the
probability that more than 579 drivers in a sample of 800 drivers wear
seat belts.
Let P (Z < 1.5) = 0.9332; P (Z < 0.25) = 0.6
a) 0.0668 b) 0.9332 c) 0.4 d) 0.6
e) None of the other choices is correct.
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.8 Exponential Distribution

Sample Questions

Question 5: When considering the area under the standard normal curve,
decide whether the area between z = 3 and z = −3 is bigger than, smaller
than, or equal to the area between z = 2.7 and z = 2.9.
a)equal to b) bigger than c) smaller than
Question 6: A catalog company that receives the majority of its orders
by telephone conducted a study to determine how long customers were
willing to wait on hold before ordering a product. The length of waiting
time was found to be a variable best approximated by an exponential
distribution with a mean length of waiting time equal to 3 minutes. Find
the waiting time at which only 10% of the customers will continue to
hold.
a) 2.3 minutes b) 3.3 minutes c) 13.8 minutes
d) 6.9 minutes e) None of the other choices is correct.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.8 Exponential Distribution

Sample Questions

Question 7: The weekly salaries of elementary school teachers in one


state are normally distributed with a mean of $490 and a standard devia-
tion of $45. What is the probability that a randomly selected elementary
school teacher earns more than $525 a week?
Let P (Z < 0.778) = 0.7817, P (Z < 0.163) = 0.5646.
a) 0.7823 b) 0.4354
c) 0.2823 d) 0.2183
e) None of the other choices is correct.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.8 Exponential Distribution

Chapter 4 Exercises
Exercise 1
The diameter of a particle of contamination (in micrometers) is modeled
with the probability density function f (x) = 2/x3 for x > 1. Determine
the following:
a) P (X < 2) b) P (X > 5)
c) P (4 < X < 8) d) P (X < 4 or X > 8).

Exercise 2
The probability density function of the time to failure of an electronic
−x/1000
component in a copier (in hours) is f (x) = e 1000 for x > 0. Determine
the probability that
a) A component lasts more than 3000 hours before failure.
b) A component fails in the interval from 1000 to 2000 hours.
c) A component fails before 1000 hours.
d) Determine the number of hours at which 10% of all components have
failed.
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4.8 Exponential Distribution

Chapter 4 Exercises

Exercise 3
Suppose the cumulative distribution function of the random variable X is

0
 x < −2
F (x) = 0.25x + 0.5 −2 ≤ x < 2

1 2 ≤ x.

Determine the following:


a) P (X < 1.8) b) P (X > −1.5)
c) P (X < −2) d) P (−1 < X < 1).

Exercise 4
Suppose that f (x) = x/8 for 3 < x < 5. Determine the mean and variance
of x.

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025 47 / 50
4.8 Exponential Distribution

Chapter 4 Exercises

Exercise 5
The probability density function of the weight of packages delivered by a
post office is f (x) = 70/(69x2 ) for 1 < x < 70 pounds.
a) Determine the mean and variance of weight.
b) If the shipping cost is $2.50 per pound, what is the average shipping
cost of a package?
c) Determine the probability that the weight of a package exceeds 50
pounds.

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4.8 Exponential Distribution

Chapter 4 Exercises

Exercise 6
The net weight in pounds of a packaged chemical herbicide is uniform for
49.75 < x < 50.25 pounds.
a) Determine the mean and variance of the weight of packages.
b) Determine the cumulative distribution function of the weight of
packages.
c) Determine P (X < 50.1).

Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.8 Exponential Distribution

Chapter 4 Exercises

Exercise 7
Assume that X is normal distributed with a mean of 10 and a standard
deviation of 2. Determine the following:
a) P (X < 13) b) P (X > 9)
c) P (6 < X < 14) d) P (2 < X < 4).

Exercise 8
Assume X is normally distributed with a mean of 10 and a standard
deviation of 2. Determine the value for x that solves each of the following:
a) P (X > x) = 0.5
b) P (x < X < 10) = 0.2.

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