677bdd626199af283a1a44f0 Chapter4.ContinuousRandomVariables
677bdd626199af283a1a44f0 Chapter4.ContinuousRandomVariables
Probability Distributions
Hanoi, 2025
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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Content
Dr. Duong Thi Viet An Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
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4.1 Continuous Random Variables
Content
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4.1 Continuous Random Variables
Definition
A continuous random variable is a random variable with an interval
(either finite or infinite) of real numbers for its range.
Example
The time until a projectile returns to earth.
The volume of gasoline that is lost to evaporation during the filling of
a gas tank.
The outside diameter of a machined shaft.
The weight of an injection-molded plastic part.
The current in an electronic circuit.
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4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
Content
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4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
1) f (x) ≥ 0
Z +∞
2) f (x)dx = 1
−∞
Z b
3) P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = f (x)dx.
a
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4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
1) f (x) ≥ 0
Z +∞
2) f (x)dx = 1
−∞
Z b
3) P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = f (x)dx.
a
Note
If X is a continuous random variable, for any x1 and x2 ,
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4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
Z 10 Z 10
P (X < 10) = f (x)dx = 0.05dx = 0.5.
0 0
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4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
Z +∞ Z +∞
P (X > 12.6) = f (x)dx = 20e−20(x−12.5) dx = 0.135
12.6 12.6
Similarly, we can calculate P (12.5 < x < 12.6). Because the total area under
f (x) equals 1, we can also calculate P (12.5 < x < 12.6) = 1 − P (X > 12.6).
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4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
3(8x − x2 )
f (x) = , 0 < x < 8.
256
Determine the following:
a) P (X < 2) b) P (X < 9)
c) P (2 < X < 4) d) P (X > 6).
Exercise 2: The probability density function of the length of a metal
rod is
f (x) = cx2 , 2 ≤ x < 3.
a) What is the value of c?
b) Find P (X < 2 or X ≥ 8).
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions
Content
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions
Example 3
For the copper current measurement in Example 1, the cumulative distri-
bution function of the random variable X consists of three expressions.
If x < 0, f (x) = 0. Therefore, FZ(x) = 0.
x
If 0 ≤ X < 20, one has F (x) = f (u)du = 0.05x
Z x 0
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions
Example 4
For the drilling operation in Example 2, F (x) consists of two expressions.
If x < 12.5: F (x) = 0.Z x
If x ≥ 12.5 : F (x) = 20e−20(u−12.5) du = 1 − e−20(x−12.5) .
12.5
Therefore,
(
0 x < 12.5
F (x) =
1 − e−20(x−12.5) 12.5 ≤ x.
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions
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4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions
Content
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4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable
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4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable
Z20
V (X) = (x − 10)2 (0.05)dx = 33.33.
0
Z20 20
2 0.05x3
E(X ) = 0.05x2 dx = = 133.33.
3 0
0
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution
Content
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution
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4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution
Z10
P (5 < x < 10) = 0.05dx = 0.25
5
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4.6 Normal Distribution
Content
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4.6 Normal Distribution
1 −(x−µ)2
f (x) = √ e 2σ2 , −∞ < x < +∞
2πσ
is a normal random variable with parameters µ, where −∞ < µ < +∞
and σ > 0.
Also
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4.6 Normal Distribution
µ=0 and σ2 = 1
Φ(z) = P (Z ≤ z).
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4.6 Normal Distribution
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4.6 Normal Distribution
Example 8
1) P (Z > 1.26) = 1 − P (Z ≤ 1.26) = 1 − 0.89616 = 0.10384
2) P (Z < −0.86) = 0.19490
3) P (Z > −1.37) = P (Z < 1.37) = 0.91465
4) P (−1.25 < Z < 0.37) = P (Z < 0.37) − P (Z < −1.25) =
0.64431 − 0.10565 = 0.53866
5) P (Z ≤ −4.6) cannot be found exactly from Appendix Table III. How-
ever, the last entry in the table can be used to find that P (Z ≤ −3.99) =
0.00003. Because P (Z ≤ −4.6) < P (Z ≤ −3.99), P (Z ≤ −4.6) is
nearly zero.
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4.6 Normal Distribution
Example 9
Suppose the current measurements in a strip of wire are assumed to follow a
normal distribution with a mean of 10 miliamperes and a variance of 4 (mil-
liamperes). Determine the value for which the probability that a current mea-
surement is below this value is 0.98
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4.6 Normal Distribution
Example 9
Suppose the current measurements in a strip of wire are assumed to follow a
normal distribution with a mean of 10 miliamperes and a variance of 4 (mil-
liamperes). Determine the value for which the probability that a current mea-
surement is below this value is 0.98
We need the value of x such that P (X < x) = 0.98. By standardizing, this
probability expression can be written as
P (Z < z) = 0.98
The nearest probability from Table III results in P (Z < 2.05) = 0.97982.
Therefore, (x − 10)/2 = 2.05, x = 14.1.
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
Content
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
and !
x − 0.5 − np
P (x ≤ X) = P (x − 0.5 ≤ X) ∼
=P p ≤Z
np(1 − p)
The approximation is good for np > 5 and n(1 − p) > 5.
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
X −λ
Z= √
λ
is approximately a standard normal random variable. The same
continuity correction used for the binomial distribution can also be applied.
The approximation is good for
λ > 5.
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
Example 10
The manufacturing of semiconductor chips produces 2% defective chips.
Assume the chips are independent and that a lot contains 1000 chips.
(a) Approximate the probability that more than 25 chips are defective.
(b) Approximate the probability that between 20 and 30 chips are defec-
tive.
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
Example 10
The manufacturing of semiconductor chips produces 2% defective chips.
Assume the chips are independent and that a lot contains 1000 chips.
(a) Approximate the probability that more than 25 chips are defective.
(b) Approximate the probability that between 20 and 30 chips are defec-
tive.
Let X denote the number of defective chips in the lot. Then,
E(X) = 1000(0.02)= 20, V (X) = 1000(0.02)(0.98) = 19.6.
a) P (X > 25) ∼
= P Z > 25.5−20
√
19.6
= P (Z > 1.24) = 1 − P (Z ≤ 1.24) =
0.107
b) P (20 < X < 30) ∼
= P (20.5 < X < 29.5) = P (0.11 < Z < 2.15) =
0.9842 − 0.5438 = 0.44.
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
Example 11
In a digital communication channel, assume that the number of bits
received in error can be modeled by a binomial random variable, and
assume that the probability that a bit is received in error is 1 × 10−5 . If
16 million bits are transmitted, what is the probability that 150 or fewer
errors occur?
Let the random variable X denote the number of errors. Then X is a
binomial random variable. !
150.5 − 160
P (X ≤ 150) = P (X ≤ 150.5) ∼=P Z≤ p
160(1 − 10−5 )
= P (Z ≤ −0.75) = 0.227
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
Exercise 1
Hits to a high-volume Web site are assumed to follow a Poisson
distribution with a mean of 10,000 per day. Approximate each of the
following:
(a) The probability of more than 20,000 hits in a day
(b) The probability of less than 9900 hits in a day
(c) The value such that the probability that the number of hits in a day
exceeds the value is 0.01
(d) Approximate the expected number of days in a year (365 days) that
exceed 10,200 hits.
(e) Approximate the probability that over a year (365 days) more than 15
days each have more than 10,200 hits.
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4.7 Normal Approziamtion to the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions
Exercise 3
Suppose that X has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 64.
Approximate the following probabilities:
(a) P (X > 72)
(b) P (X < 64)
(c) P (60 < X ≤ 68)
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Content
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Exponential Distribution
The random variable X that equals the distance between successive
events of a Poisson process with mean number of events λ > 0 per
unit interval is an exponential random variable with parameter λ. The
probability density function of X is
f (x) = λe−λx for 0 ≤ x < ∞.
F (x) = P (X ≤ x) = 1 − e−λx , x ≥ 0.
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Example 12
Suppose X has an exponential distribution with λ = 2. Determine the
following:
(a) P (X ≤ 0)
(b) P (X ≥ 2)
(c) P (X ≤ 1)
(d) P (1 < X < 2)
(e) Find the value of x such that P (X < x) = 0.05.
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Sample Questions
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Sample Questions
Question 3: A supermarket manager has determined that the amount
of time customers spend in the supermarket is approximately normally
distributed with a mean of 45 minutes and a standard deviation of 6
minutes. Find the probability that a customer spends between 39 and
43 minutes in the supermarket.
Let P (Z < −1) = 0.159, P (Z < −0.33) = 0.371, P (Z < 0.02) =
0.508 and P (Z < 0.85) = 0.802.
a)0.823 b) 0.212 c) 0.345 d) 0.646
e) None of the other choices is correct
Question 4: Transportation officials tell us that 70% of drivers wear
seat belts while driving. Use normal distribution to approximate the
probability that more than 579 drivers in a sample of 800 drivers wear
seat belts.
Let P (Z < 1.5) = 0.9332; P (Z < 0.25) = 0.6
a) 0.0668 b) 0.9332 c) 0.4 d) 0.6
e) None of the other choices is correct.
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Sample Questions
Question 5: When considering the area under the standard normal curve,
decide whether the area between z = 3 and z = −3 is bigger than, smaller
than, or equal to the area between z = 2.7 and z = 2.9.
a)equal to b) bigger than c) smaller than
Question 6: A catalog company that receives the majority of its orders
by telephone conducted a study to determine how long customers were
willing to wait on hold before ordering a product. The length of waiting
time was found to be a variable best approximated by an exponential
distribution with a mean length of waiting time equal to 3 minutes. Find
the waiting time at which only 10% of the customers will continue to
hold.
a) 2.3 minutes b) 3.3 minutes c) 13.8 minutes
d) 6.9 minutes e) None of the other choices is correct.
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Sample Questions
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Chapter 4 Exercises
Exercise 1
The diameter of a particle of contamination (in micrometers) is modeled
with the probability density function f (x) = 2/x3 for x > 1. Determine
the following:
a) P (X < 2) b) P (X > 5)
c) P (4 < X < 8) d) P (X < 4 or X > 8).
Exercise 2
The probability density function of the time to failure of an electronic
−x/1000
component in a copier (in hours) is f (x) = e 1000 for x > 0. Determine
the probability that
a) A component lasts more than 3000 hours before failure.
b) A component fails in the interval from 1000 to 2000 hours.
c) A component fails before 1000 hours.
d) Determine the number of hours at which 10% of all components have
failed.
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Chapter 4 Exercises
Exercise 3
Suppose the cumulative distribution function of the random variable X is
0
x < −2
F (x) = 0.25x + 0.5 −2 ≤ x < 2
1 2 ≤ x.
Exercise 4
Suppose that f (x) = x/8 for 3 < x < 5. Determine the mean and variance
of x.
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Chapter 4 Exercises
Exercise 5
The probability density function of the weight of packages delivered by a
post office is f (x) = 70/(69x2 ) for 1 < x < 70 pounds.
a) Determine the mean and variance of weight.
b) If the shipping cost is $2.50 per pound, what is the average shipping
cost of a package?
c) Determine the probability that the weight of a package exceeds 50
pounds.
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Chapter 4 Exercises
Exercise 6
The net weight in pounds of a packaged chemical herbicide is uniform for
49.75 < x < 50.25 pounds.
a) Determine the mean and variance of the weight of packages.
b) Determine the cumulative distribution function of the weight of
packages.
c) Determine P (X < 50.1).
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4.8 Exponential Distribution
Chapter 4 Exercises
Exercise 7
Assume that X is normal distributed with a mean of 10 and a standard
deviation of 2. Determine the following:
a) P (X < 13) b) P (X > 9)
c) P (6 < X < 14) d) P (2 < X < 4).
Exercise 8
Assume X is normally distributed with a mean of 10 and a standard
deviation of 2. Determine the value for x that solves each of the following:
a) P (X > x) = 0.5
b) P (x < X < 10) = 0.2.
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