Statistics - Unit1 PDF
Statistics - Unit1 PDF
STAT130
Unit 1: Introduction and
Descriptive Statistics
Chapter 1
An Introduction to Business
Statistics
Applications in Business and Economics
Accounting
Public accounting firms use statistical sampling
procedures when conducting audits for their
clients.
Production
A variety of statistical quality control charts are
used to monitor the output of a production process.
Marketing
Electronic point-of-sale scanners at retail checkout
counters are being used to collect data for a variety
of marketing research applications.
3
Applications in Business and Economics
Economics
Economists use statistical information in making
forecasts about the future of the economy or some
aspect of it.
Finance
Financial advisors use a variety of statistical
information, including price-earnings ratios and
dividend yields, to guide their investment
recommendations.
4
Text
Key Definitions
A population is the collection of all items or
things under consideration –people or objects
A sample is a portion of the population selected
for analysis population is more accurate than the samples
anything we calculate while we measure population
A parameter is a summary measure that
describes a characteristic of the population
A statistic is a summary measure computed from
a sample anything we calculate from the sample
5
population is the children toys
sample is 500 toys
parameter is 5% (claim is always parameter)
Exercise
statistics is 8%
parameter
statistics
*important: inferences ( )استدالل نستدل بهhow can we test the claim?? go to slide 10
A manufacturer of children toys claims that less
than 5% of his products are defective. When 500
toys were drawn from a large production run, 8%
were found to be defective.
a) What is the population of interest?
b) What is the sample?
c) What is the parameter?
d) What is the statistic?
e) Does the value 5% refer to the parameter or the
statistic?
f) Is the value 8% a parameter or a statistics?
g) Explain briefly how the statistic can be used to make
inferences about the parameter to test the claim.
6
What is Statistics?
data will be ready
Statistics is a science that deals with collecting
and analyzing data, drawing conclusions, and
making decisions.
There are two main areas of Statistics:
Descriptive statistics: describing & summarising the data,
provides tabular and graphical techniques and
numerical measures for describing data.
Inferential statistics: slide 9 makes it more clear
7
Descriptive Statistics
Collect data
e.g. Survey
Present data
e.g. Tables and graphs
Characterize data
e.g. Sample mean =
∑ X i
n
8
Inferential Statistics
Estimation Text
Inferential Statistics
Making statements about a population
by examining sample results
Sample statistics Population parameters
(known) Inference (unknown, but can
because we calculated it, be estimated from
sample evidence)
Sample Population
10
next class
Sources of data
The most popular sources of data are:
Published material, observational studies,
experimental studies and surveys.
Published material
found in books, in scientific journals, on
tapes, on CDs, on the Internet, etc…
Data published by the organization that
collected the data are called PRIMARY DATA
Data published by an organization other than
the organization that collected the data are
called SECONDARY DATA.
11
Sources of data
Observational studies:
are studies in which the sample elements are observed
and the information is recorded without controlling any
of the factors that might affect the information or
measurements.
Experimental studies:
are studies which the measurements are recorded while
controlling some factors that might influence the results
of the study.
Surveys:
are questionnaires designed to solicit information from
people, by means of (face-to-face interview, telephone
interview, postal mail, e-mail, fax)
12
Types of data
Data are the facts, figures, or records that
are collected from the sample elements.
Data can be classified:
Qualitative data are labels or names used to
identify attributes of the sample elements.
The labels can be numbers with no real
numerical meaning.
Examples: gender, marital status, race, ..
Quantitative data are numbers (with real
meaning), representing measurements,
obtained from the sample elements.
Examples: salary, age, number of branches,..
13
Measurement Scales
Nominal data if the order is not important.
Examples: data representing marital status,
gender, work sector (public, private), get
promoted (yes, no), etc …
Ordinal data if the order is important.
Examples: data representing job performance
(excellent, good, fair, poor), income level (low,
medium, high), educational level (less than
high school, high school, college), etc…
14
Measurement Scales
Interval data: All of the characteristics of ordinal
plus…
Measurements are on a numerical scale with an arbitrary
zero point
The “zero” is assigned: it is nonphysical and not
meaningful
Zero does not mean the absence of the quantity that we
are trying to measure
Can only meaningfully compare values by the interval
between them
Cannot compare values by taking their ratios
“Interval” is the arithmetic difference between the values
Example: temperature
0° F means “cold,” not “no heat”
80° F is not twice as warm as 40° F
15
Measurement Scales
Ratio data: All the characteristics of interval
plus…
Measurements are on a numerical scale with a
meaningful zero point
Zero means “none” or “nothing”
Values can be compared in terms of their interval and
ratio
$30 is $20 more than $10
$0 means no money
In business and finance, most quantitative variables are
ratio variables, such as anything to do with money
Examples: Earnings, profit, loss, age, distance, height,
weight
16
Exercise
After the graduation ceremonies at a university, six
Business graduates were asked whether they will join
an MBA program next year. Some information about
these graduates is shown below.
Graduate Sex Age MBA Rank
Huda F 52 1 1
Mohamed M 24 1 2
Sara F 33 0 4
Ali M 38 0 20
Fatima F 25 1 3
Samer M 19 0 8
a)How many elements are in the data set?
b)How many variables are in the data set?
c) How many observations are in the data set?
d)Classify the above variables (qualitative/ quantitative).
17
Sampling
Reasons for Drawing a Sample
It may cost too much to collect information from each
element of the population.
The population may be too large and it would take a
long time to collect information.
It may not be possible to obtain information from
some elements of the population.
Probability Samples
18
Simple Random Samples
Every individual or item from the frame
has an equal chance of being selected.
Selection may be with replacement or
without replacement.
Samples obtained from computer random
number generators.
19
Systematic Samples
Decide on sample size: n
Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k
individuals: k=N/n
Randomly select one individual from the 1st
group.
Select every kth individual thereafter
N = 64
n=8 First Group
k=8 20
Stratified Samples
Population divided into two or more subgroups
(called strata) according to some common
characteristic.
Simple random sample selected from each
subgroup.
Samples from subgroups are combined into
one.
Population
Divided
into 4
strata
21
Sample
Cluster Samples
Population is divided into “clusters,” each
representative of the population
A simple random sample of clusters is
selected
All items in the selected clusters can be used, or items
can be chosen from a cluster using another probability
sampling technique
Population
divided into
16 clusters. Randomly selected
clusters for sample
22
Advantages and Disadvantages
Simple random sample and systematic sample
Simple to use
May not be a good representation of the
population’s underlying characteristics that have
small probabilities
Stratified sample
Ensures representation of individuals across the
entire population
Cluster sample
More cost effective
Less efficient (need larger sample to acquire the
same level of precision) 23
Chapter 2
Descriptive Statistics: Tabular
and Graphical Methods
Organizing and Presenting Data
Data in raw form are usually not easy to use
for decision making
Some type of organization is needed
Table
Graph
Techniques reviewed here:
Stem-and-Leaf Display
Frequency Distributions and Histograms
Bar charts and pie charts
Contingency tables and Scatter Diagrams
25
Representing Qualitative Data
Qualitative Data
26
Frequency Tables
A frequency table consists of two columns,
one of which shows the categories or classes
and the other specifies the frequency for each
category.
In a frequency table, all frequencies must add
up to the sample size (n).
A relative frequency table consists of two
columns, one of which shows the categories
or classes and the other specifies the relative
frequency for each category.
The relative frequency=(Frequency/sample size)
27
Example
The following table lists all 251 vehicles sold
in 2006 by the greater Cincinnati Jeep dealers
29
Bar Charts and Pie Charts
Bar chart: A vertical or horizontal rectangle
represents the frequency for each category
Height can be frequency, relative frequency, or
percent frequency
What to Look For: Frequently and infrequently
occurring categories.
Pie chart: A circle divided into slices where the
size of each slice represents its relative frequency
or percent frequency
What to Look For: Categories that form large and
small proportions of the data set.
30
Excel Bar Chart
31
Excel Pie Chart
32
Exercise
A random sample of 25 female shoppers was
selected on a given day and each shopper
was asked: “what is your favorite
shampoo?”. The data were as follows:
p, p, s, d, s, d, d, s, p, d, p, d, d, s, d, p, s,
s, d, s, p, d, d, s, d,
where d= Dove, p= Pantene and s= Sunsilk.
Construct a frequency table, a bar chart and
a pie chart and comment on the plots.
33
Representing Quantitative Data
Quantitative Data
Frequency Distributions
Ordered Array and
Cumulative Distributions
34
Frequency Distributions
A frequency distribution is a list or a table
containing class groupings (categories or ranges
within which the data falls)
and the corresponding frequencies with which data
falls within each grouping or category
Why Use Frequency Distributions?
A frequency distribution is a way to summarize
data
The distribution condenses the raw data into a
more useful form
allows for a quick visual interpretation of the data
and easy graphical display
35
Class Intervals and Class Boundaries
If each class grouping has the same width
Determine the width of each interval by
range
Width of interval ≅
number of desired class groupings
36
Frequency Distribution Example
A manufacturer of insulation randomly selects 20
winter days and records the daily high
temperature
Sort raw data in ascending order:
12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30,
32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
Find range: 58 - 12 = 46
Select number of classes: 5 (usually 5 to 15)
Compute class interval (width): 10 (46/5 then roundup)
Compute class boundaries (limits): 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60
Compute class midpoints: 15, 25, 35, 45, 55
Count observations & assign to classes
37
Frequency Distribution Example
Ordered Data:
12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
Relative
Class Frequency Percentage
Frequency
10 but less than 20 3 .15 15
20 but less than 30 6 .30 30
30 but less than 40 5 .25 25
40 but less than 50 4 .20 20
50 but less than 60 2 .10 10
Total 20 1.00 100 38
The Histogram
A graph of the data in a frequency distribution is
called a histogram
The class boundaries (or class midpoints) are
shown on the horizontal axis
frequency is measured on the vertical axis
Bars of the appropriate heights can be used to
represent the number of observations within each
class
What to Look For: Central or typical value, extent
of spread or variation, general shape, location and
number of peaks, presence of gaps and outliers.
39
Histogram Example
Class
Class Midpoint Frequency
10 but less than 20 15 3
20 but less than 30 25 6
30 but less than 40 35 5
40 but less than 50 45 4 His togr am : Daily High Te m pe r atur e
50 but less than 60 55 2
7 6
6 5
5 4
Frequency
4 3
3 2
2
(No gaps 1 0 0
between 0
bars) 5 15 25 35 45 55 More
40
Shapes of Histograms
42
Cumulative Distributions and Ogive
Another way to summarize a distribution is to
construct a cumulative distribution
Rather than a count, we record the number of
measurements that are less than the upper
boundary of that class
Ogive: A graph of a cumulative distribution
Plot a point above each upper class boundary at height
of cumulative frequency
Connect points with line segments
Can also be drawn using
Cumulative relative frequencies
Cumulative percent frequencies
43
Cumulative Frequency
Data in ordered array:
12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
Cumulative Cumulative
Class Freq % Class Frequency %
Total 20 100
44
Graphing Cumulative Frequencies:
The Ogive (Cumulative % Polygon)
Lower
class Cumulative
Class boundary Percentage
less than 10 10 0
less than 20 20 15
less than 30 30 45 Ogive: Daily High Temperature
less than 40 40 70
100
Cumulative Percentage
less than 50 50 90
less than 60 60 100 80
60
40
20
0
10 20 30 40 50 60
45
Exercise
A random sample of 25 stocks was selected from
the New York Stock Exchange and the book value
(net worth divided by The number of outstanding
shares) was recorded for each stock. The data
were as follows:
10 8 16 14 4 10 8 12 9 7 14 13
11 7 10 17 8 11 9 15 8 6 18 9 12
Construct a frequency table
Construct a histogram and describe the distribution.
Determine the cumulative frequency table
46
Stem and Leaf Display
Purpose is to see the overall pattern of the data,
by grouping the data into classes
the variation from class to class
the amount of data in each class
the distribution of the data within each class
What to look for: The display conveys
information about a representative to a typical
value in the data set, the extent of spread about
such a value, the presence of any gaps in the
data, the extent of symmetry in the distribution
of values, the number and location of peaks, and
the presence of any outliers (unusual points).
47
Example
Data in ordered array:
21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 38, 41
Here, use the 10’s digit for the stem unit:
Stem Leaf
21 is shown as 2 1
38 is shown as 3 8
Stem Leaves
2 1 4 4 6 7 7
3 0 2 8
4 1 48
Car Mileage: Results
Refer to the Car Mileage
Case (Table 2.14)
Looking at the stem-and-
leaf display, the
distribution appears
almost “symmetrical”
The upper portion (29, 30,
31) is almost a mirror
image of the lower portion
of the display (31, 32, 33)
Stems 31, 32*, 32, and
33*
But not exactly a mirror
reflection 49
Crosstabulation Tables
Classifies data on two dimensions
Rows classify according to one dimension
Columns classify according to a second
dimension
Requires three variable
1. The row variable
2. The column variable
3. The variable counted in the cells
50
Example: The Investor Satisfaction Case
Investment broker sells several kinds of
investments (stock fund, bond fund, tax-deferred
annuity)
Wishes to study whether satisfaction depends on
the type of investment product purchased
Fund Type High Medium Low Total
Bond Fund 15 12 3 30
Stock Fund 24 4 2 30
Tax Deferred Annuity 1 24 15 40
Total 40 40 20 100
51
More on Crosstabulation Tables
Row totals provide a frequency distribution for
the different fund types
Column totals provide a frequency distribution for
the different satisfaction levels
One way to investigate relationships is to
compute row and column percentages
Compute row percentages by dividing each cell’s
frequency by its row total and expressing as a
percentage
Compute column percentages by dividing by the column
total
52
Row Percentage for Each Fund Type
Fund Type High Medium Low Total
53
Scatter Plots
Scatter plots are used for bivariate numerical
data
Bivariate data consists of paired observations
taken from two numerical variables
The Scatter plot:
one variable (dependent) is measured on the
vertical axis and the other variable (independent)
is measured on the horizontal axis.
What to look for:
Describe the type of the relationship (linear,
nonlinear), the direction (positive, negative) and
the strength (strong, moderate, weak).
54
Examples of Scatter Plots
56
Chapter 3
Descriptive Statistics:
Numerical Methods
Summary Measures
Describing Data Numerically
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of
Variation 58
Measures of Central Tendency
In addition to describing the shape of a
distribution, want to describe the data set’s
central tendency
A measure of central tendency represents the
center or middle of the data
Central Tendency
∑x
i =1
i
x1 + x2 + " + xn
x= =
n n
Population mean N = Population Size
N
∑x i
x1 + x2 + " + x N
μ= i =1
=
N N 60
Arithmetic Mean
The most common measure of central tendency
Mean = sum of values divided by the number of
values
Affected by extreme values (outliers)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mean = 3 Mean = 4
1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 15 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 10 20
= =3 = =4
5 5 5 5
61
Median
Not affected by extreme values
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Median = 3 Median = 3
62
Finding the Median
The location of the median:
n +1
Median position = position in the ordered array
2
63
Mode
A measure of central tendency
Value that occurs most often
Not affected by extreme values
Mainly used for grouped numerical data or
categorical data
There may may be no mode
There may be several modes
No Mode
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
64
Mode = 9
Review Example
Five houses on a hill by the beach
$2,000 K
House Prices:
$2,000,000
500,000 $500 K
300,000 $300 K
100,000
100,000
$100 K
$100 K
65
Example: Summary Statistics
Mean: ($3,000,000/5)
House Prices: = $600,000
$2,000,000
500,000 Median: middle value of
300,000
100,000
ranked data
100,000 = $300,000
Sum 3,000,000
Mode: most frequent value
= $100,000
66
Which measure is the “best”?
Mean is generally used, unless extreme values
(outliers) exist
Then median is often used, since the median is
not sensitive to extreme values.
For a relatively small number of extreme
observations (either very small or very large,
but not both), the median is usually better.
Choosing:
The mode is meaningful on a nominal scale.
The median is meaningful on an ordinal scale.
The mean is meaningful on an interval/ratio scale.
67
Shape of a Distribution
Describes how data is distributed
Symmetric or skewed
If the distribution is symmetric, then mean=median.
If the distribution is skewed to right, then
mode < median < mean
If the distribution is skewed to left, then
mode > median > mean
68
Exercise
The following data represent the ages of 20
randomly selected managers:
43 44 49 37 45 35 46
32 47 42 39 40 41 45
41 43 50 47 41 51
a) Find the mean, median and mode for the
above data.
b) Which measure would you choose to describe
the data? Why?
69
Measures of Variability
Variability
70
Measures of Variation
Knowing the measures of center is not enough
Both of the distributions below have identical
measures of central tendency
Variation
Example:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Range = 14 - 1 = 13
72
Disadvantages of the Range
Ignores the way in which data are distributed
7 8 9 10 11 12 7 8 9 10 11 12
Range = 12 - 7 = 5 Range = 12 - 7 = 5
Sensitive to outliers
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,5
Range = 5 - 1 = 4
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,120
Range = 120 - 1 = 119
73
Variance
Average of squared deviations of values from
the mean
Population variance: Sample variance:
N n
∑ (X i − μ) 2
∑ (X
i =1
i − X) 2
σ =2 i =1 S2 =
N n -1
Where Where
μ = population mean X = arithmetic mean
N = population size n = sample size
Xi = ith value of the variable X Xi = ith value of the variable X 74
Standard Deviation
Most commonly used measure of variation
The square root of the variance
Shows variation about the mean
Has the same units as the original data
Sample standard deviation:
∑
i =1
(X i − X) 2
S=
n -1
75
Example: Sample Standard Deviation
Sample
Data (Xi) : 10 12 14 15 17 18 18 24
n=8 Mean = X = 16
(10 − 16) 2
+ (12 − 16) 2
+ (14 − 16) 2
+ " + (24 − 16) 2
=
8 −1
126
= = 4.2426
7 76
Comparing Standard Deviations
Data A
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 S = 3.338
Data B
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 S = .9258
Data C
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 S = 4.57
77
Coefficient of Variation
Measures relative variation
Always a percentage (%)
Shows variation relative to mean
Is used to compare two or more sets of
data measured in different units
⎛ S ⎞
CV = ⎜⎜ ⎟ ⋅ 100%
⎟
⎝ X ⎠
78
Comparing Coefficients of Variation
Stock A:
Average price last year = $50
Standard deviation = $5
⎛S⎞ $5
CVA = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⋅ 100% = ⋅ 100% = 10%
⎝X⎠ $50 Both stocks
have the same
Stock B: standard
Average price last year = $100 deviation, but
stock B is less
Standard deviation = $5 variable relative
to its price
⎛S⎞ $5
⎜ ⎟
CVB = ⎜ ⎟ ⋅ 100% = ⋅ 100% = 5%
⎝X⎠ $100
79
The Empirical Rule
If the data distribution is bell-shaped, then
the interval:
a) (μ-σ, μ+σ) contains about 68.26% of the values in
the population.
b) (μ-2σ, μ+2σ) contains about 95.44% of the values
in the population.
c) (μ-3σ, μ+3σ) contains about 99.74% of the values
in the population.
80
Example
IQs measured on the Stanford Revision of the Binet–
Simon Intelligence Scale have a mean of 100 points and a
standard deviation of 16 points. The interval:
a) (84, 116) contains about 68.26% of the IQ scores.
b) (68, 132) contains about 95.44% of the IQ scores.
c) (52, 148) contains about 99.74% of the IQ scores.
The scores of 25 randomly selected people are shown
below.
66 82 86 88 91 95 96 96 97 98
101 102 102 104 105 106 111 112 115
116 118 121 124 127 129
a) 18 scores (72%) fall in the interval (84, 116).
b) 24 scores (96%) fall in the interval (68, 132).
c) 25 scores (100%) fall in the interval (52, 148).
81
Exercise
The exam scores for the students in an
introductory statistics course are as follows.
88 67 64 76 86 85 82 39 75 34
90 63 89 90 84 81 96 100 70 96
a) Compute the descriptive statistics for the
given exam scores.
b) Apply the empirical rule and check the
consistency with the sample results. Explain
your conclusion.
82
Measures of Relative Standing
Measures of
Relative Standing
Percentiles Quartiles
83
Percentiles
The pth percentile in an ordered array of n
values is the value in ith position, where
p
i= (n + 1)
100
Example: The 60th percentile in an ordered array
of 19 values is the value in 12th position:
p 60
i= (n + 1) = (19 + 1) = 12
100 100
In Excel, write =percentile(array, k), where
array is the range of data and k is the percentile
value in the range 0-1. 84
Quartiles
Quartiles split the ranked data into 4 equal
groups
25% 25% 25% 25%
Q1 Q2 Q3
Example: Find the first quartile
Sample Data in Ordered Array: 11 12 13 16 16 17 18 21 22
(n = 9)
Q1= 25th percentile, so find the (25/100)(9+1) = 2.5 position
so use the value half way between the 2nd and 3rd values,
so Q1= 12.5
85
Interquartile Range and Fences
Difference between the first and third
quartiles
IQR = Q3 – Q1
Inner fences: Located 1.5×IQR away from
the quartiles:
Q1 – (1.5 × IQR)
Q3 + (1.5 × IQR)
Outer fences: Located 3×IQR away from the
quartiles:
Q1 – (3 × IQR)
Q3 + (3 × IQR)
86
Outliers
Outliers are measurements that are very different
from other measurements
They are either much larger or much smaller than most
of the other measurements
Outliers lie beyond the fences of the box-and-
whiskers plot
Measurements between the inner and outer fences are
mild outliers
Measurements beyond the outer fences are severe
outliers
The adjacent values are:
The smallest data point falls above the lower fence.
The largest data point falls below the upper fence.
87
Box and Whisker Plot (Boxplot)
A Graphical display of data using 5-number
summary:
Minimum -- Q1 -- Median -- Q3 -- Maximum
89
How to construct a Boxplot?
1. Determine the quartiles.
2. Determine the potential outliers and the
adjacent values.
3. Draw a horizontal axis on which the numbers
obtained in Steps 1 and 2 can be located. Above
this axis, mark the quartiles and the adjacent
values with vertical lines.
4. Connect the quartiles to each other to make a
box, and then connect the box to the adjacent
values with lines.
5. Plot the potential outlier with an asterisk.
90
Example: Box-and-Whiskers Plots
91
Example
A sample of 20 people yielded the weekly
viewing times, in hours,
25 41 27 32 43 66 35 31 15 5
34 26 32 38 16 30 38 30 20 21
The five-number summary is
5 24 30.5 35.75 66
IQR=35.75-24=11.75
1.5*IQR=1.5*13.5=17.625
Lower Fence=Q1-1.5*IQR=24-17.625=6.375
Upper Fence=Q3+1.5*IQR=35.75+17.625=53.375
The observations, 5 and 66, lie beyond the inner
fences and hence should be classified as outlier.
The adjacent values are 15 and 43.
92
Example: Excel output
93
Exercise
IQs measured on the Stanford Revision of the
Binet–Simon Intelligence Scale. The scores of 25
randomly selected people are shown below.
66 82 86 88 91 95 96 96 97
98 101 102 102 104 105 106 111
112 115 116 118 121 124 127 129
Identify potential outliers, if any, and construct
and interpret a boxplot
94