Mathematics Instructional Plan – Grade 5

How Many Ways?

Strand: Probability and Statistics
Topic: Constructing sample spaces and determining the probability of outcomes
Primary SOL: 5.15 The student will determine the probability of an outcome by
constructing a sample space or using the Fundamental (Basic)
Counting Principle.
Related SOL: 4.13
Materials
 Probability Cards (Set 1 and 2) activity sheet (attached)
 Using a Tree Diagram to Determine How Many Outfits activity sheet (attached)
 So Now I Have More Choices Work Space activity sheet (attached)
Vocabulary
chance, experiment, experimental probability, Fundamental Counting Principle,
more/less/equally likely, outcome, probability, sample space, theoretical probability, tree
diagram
Student/Teacher Actions: What should students be doing? What should teachers be doing?
1. Ask, “Thumbs-up if you have heard the term probability before, and thumbs-down if you
do not think you have. What is probability?” Use ideas the students share to help them
develop the definition: Probability is the chance or likelihood of an event occurring.
a. Have students brainstorm terms related to probability and their meanings,
including chance, data, more/less/equally likely, certain, sample space, and
outcomes. As students name a term, use Mathematics Vocabulary Word Wall
Cards at the VDOE Office of Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics
website to build a word wall. If students share an idea but do not recall the term,
provide the term and post the vocabulary card. Other terms will come up
throughout the lesson, and those cards can be posted at that time.
b. Ask students to find partners and, using the think-pair-share strategy, brainstorm
a list of situations that involve probability. List these ideas on the board, and if
the context allows, list the probability it will happen. For instance, if all of the
student’s names were put into a hat, what is the probability a boy’s name will be
chosen? A girl’s name? Use words like impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely
and certain.
c. Emphasize that the chance or likelihood of an event occurring can range from
zero (impossible) to 1 (certain). Draw a number line on the board with the
numbers 0 and 1. Draw a tic mark in the middle of the line. Under 0, write”
impossible.” Under 1, write “certain.” In the middle, write “equally likely” and
1
the fraction 2. Between 0 and the middle, write “unlikely.” Between the middle
and 1, write “likely.”
Mathematics Instructional Plan – Grade 5

2. Let students know they are going to conduct an experiment so they can develop a
sample space that shows all possible combinations of shirts, pants, and shoes.
a. Distribute the Probability Cards (Set 1) and review with the class what cards are
in the set; two colors of pants, two colors of shirts, and two colors of shoes.
Clarify what it means to wear a different outfit each day. Then ask students to
find all of the different outfits they can wear with one shirt, one pair of pants
and one pair of socks. Discuss how organization is important to avoid duplicates
and to make sure all possible outfits have been made. Tell students to make sure
they do not repeat an outfit. Allow students time to work on this with a partner.
Circulate around the room and notice what students are saying and doing. If
students are stuck, pose questions to help them think about the situation.
b. Ask students about the sample space they have created: “How many different
outfits can be made?” “How do you know you have all the possible
combinations?” “How do you know that a particular combination was not
included twice?” “Could anyone look at your organization and know what all the
possible combination of clothes or outfits would be?”
c. Let students know there is another way to organize information when looking for
combinations, and the organizing tool is a tree diagram. Provide students the
Using a Tree Diagram to Determine How Many Outfits activity sheet to take
notes as you model for the students how to create a tree diagram. First, answer
the questions to prepare for later introduction of the Fundamental Counting
Principle. Then model and explain a tree diagram using tan and green pants,
orange and yellow shirts, and black-and-white shoes. This activity has two goals:
1) learning how to make a tree diagram, and 2) building the foundation for
understanding the Fundamental Counting Principle. With this in mind, ask
purposeful questions along the way and help students make explicit connections
between the number of branches needed and why each time a new category or
item of clothing is introduced.
d. Ask students to find where all possible outcomes of the outfits are located on
the tree diagram. Using the tree diagram or the list they made, ask students how
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
many outfits have a red shirt. Using , model for
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
4
students how to write the total number of outcomes, 8, where four out of eight
outfits will have a red shirt. Ask students where this would fall on the number
line of probability on the board.
e. Ask, “If we have two different colors of shirts, two colors of pants, and different
colors of shoes, how can we get eight possible outfits?” Revisit the questions the
students answered before creating the tree diagram and facilitate discussions for
students to discover 2 x 2 x 2 = 8. First, students need to find out how many
possible outcomes there are for shirts and pants only, and then find all of the
possible outcomes including shoes. Tell students this is called the Fundamental
Counting Principle.

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Mathematics Instructional Plan – Grade 5

3. Distribute to individuals or pairs of students the Probability Cards (Set 2), red shirt and
blue pants, to include with the first set. Distribute the Now I Have More Choices Work
Space activity sheet, and ask students to make a list or table of all possible outcomes.
Next, make a tree diagram and use the Fundamental Counting Principle to verify their
answer for all possible outcomes. Last, ask students to generate a probability question
to ask the class about the new outfits. Circulate and facilitate as needed. Make note of
who is struggling and who you may want to call on to share.
a. Create a checking station by posting a premade tree diagram in an out-of-the-
way but observable space. As students finish, have them take their paper (no
pencils or pens) to the checking station to determine whether they are finished.
If their tree diagram is not correct, they can return to their seat to make
revisions.
b. Once students have completed the Now I Have More Choices Work Space
activity sheet, have individual or pairs find another individual or pair, ask their
probability question, and decide where it falls on the probability number line.
Ask students for a question where the answer would be impossible and certain.
4. Give students two coins and have them find all possible outcomes if they tossed the coin
three times. Have them make a list or table, tree diagram, use the Fundamental
Counting Principle, and create a probability question. Create a checking station.
Continue to circulate and facilitate as needed.
a. As you circulate and students say they are finished, have them take their paper,
(no pencils or pens) to the checking station to determine whether they are
finished. If their tree diagram is incorrect, they can return to their seat to make
revisions.
b. Use the information in the tree diagram and list to introduce the ideas of
theoretical and experimental probability. Discuss with students the idea that the
more times they repeat an experiment, the closer the experimental probability
becomes theoretical probability.
Assessment
 Questions
o Why use a tree diagram instead of a list of outcomes?
o What is the Fundamental Counting Principle?
o What is probability? Explain in your own words.
 Journal/writing prompts
o Create the sample space or choices for a lunch menu where there would be 12
possible combinations or outcomes. Show all possible outcomes using a list or
table and a tree diagram.
o Explain when it would be best to use a tree diagram and when it would be best
to make a list or table.
o Explain how the Fundamental Counting Principle works.

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Mathematics Instructional Plan – Grade 5

𝟑
o Write a situation where the probability of the event occurring is 𝟓.
 Other Assessments
o There are 7 blue squares and 3 orange squares, all the same size, in a bag. What
is the probability of drawing a blue square? An orange triangle? Where do both
fall on the Probability Number Line?
o Why would you want to repeat an experiment?
o Explain some ways you can decide whether a game or experiment is fair.
o Describe a situation that involves probability. Define the sample space, and
identify the chances of each outcome.
Extensions and Connections (for all students)
 Provide students with two fair number cubes, each side numbered from 1 to 6. In
addition, ask them to create the sample space for all the possible sums. Then ask them
to determine which of the following would be good games for the Fall Festival and to
justify their answer. You win if you roll the following: a 4, a number other than 6, an odd
number, a fraction, or a multiple of 5.
 Have students determine the theoretical probability of getting rock, paper, or scissors. If
the students play the game eight times, what would be all possible outcomes? Have
students prove their answer. Ask them to choose rock, paper, or scissors, and give the
probability of getting it.
 Provide students with various spinners. Have them construct the sample space of
possible outcomes and conduct experiments with the spinners to determine
experimental probability. Students can compare the theoretical probability (expected
outcomes) to the experimental probability (their results from the experiment).
Strategies for Differentiation
 Color-code the Probability Cards.
 Provide students with sets of cards to build the tree diagrams. Eights sets of Set 1 will be
needed to create the complete tree diagram. Build a tree diagram with cards before
drawing it on their papers.
 Use an electronic graphic organizer to create the tree diagram.

The following pages are intended for classroom use for students as a visual aid to learning.

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Mathematics Instructional Plan – Grade 5

Probability Cards (Set 1)

Orange shirt Yellow shirt

Tan pants Green pants

Black shoes White shoes

(Set 2)

Red shirt Blue pants

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Mathematics Instructional Plan – Grade 5

Using a Tree Diagram to

Determine How Many Outfits

Answer the following questions before starting to create the tree diagram.

1. How many different categories or types of clothing make up an outfit? ____

2. List the different categories and the number of different color items in each category.

3. We are going to work together as a class to develop a tree diagram. Use the space
below to take notes.

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Mathematics Instructional Plan – Grade 5

So Now I Have More Choices Work Space

Use the space below to identify all possible outfits when there are three colors of pants, three
colors of shirts, and two colors of shoes.

1. Make a list/table.
2. Create a tree diagram.
3. Verify all possible outcomes using the Fundamental Counting Principle.
4. Create a probability question for the class to answer.

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