STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY Until T Distribution 2
STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY Until T Distribution 2
PROBABILITY
Science, Technology, Engineering and
Mathematics
Learning Objectives:
At the end of the lesson, the learner shall be able to:
Holding a breath
𝑌 = the time (in seconds) a student can hold his/her
breath
𝑥 = 0, 1, 2 and 3.
PRACTICE EXERCISES:
3. Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement
from an urn containing 3 red balls and 2 blue balls. Let 𝑌 be
the random variable representing the number of blue balls.
List all the possible outcomes and find the values of the
random variable 𝑌.
PRACTICE EXERCISES:
3. Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement
from an urn containing 3 red balls and 2 blue balls. Let 𝑌 be
the random variable representing the number of blue balls.
List all the possible outcomes and find the values of the
random variable 𝑌.
𝒙
POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES (values
of 𝑿)
𝐵𝐵 2
𝑅𝐵 1
𝑥 = 0, 1 and 2.
𝐵𝑅 1
𝑅𝑅 0
PRACTICE EXERCISES:
4. Suppose a die is rolled. Let 𝑍 be the random variable
representing the number of dots shown on the top face. List
all the possible outcomes and give the values of the
random variable 𝑍.
PRACTICE EXERCISES:
4. Suppose a die is rolled. Let 𝑍 be the random variable
representing the number of dots shown on the top face. List
all the possible outcomes and give the values of the
random variable 𝑍.
𝑧 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 𝑎𝑛𝑑 6
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
A discrete probability distribution consists of the values of a
random variables can assume and their corresponding
probabilities.
𝑥 = 0, 1, 2 and 3.
𝑦 = 0, 1 and 2.
of 𝑿)
𝐵𝐵 2
𝑅𝐵 1
𝐵𝑅 1
𝑅𝑅 0
Probability Distribution:
3 red balls and 2 blue balls
Probability Distribution:
EXAMPLE:
3. Suppose a die is rolled. Let 𝑍 be the random variable
representing the number of dots shown on the top face.
List all the possible outcomes and give the values of the
random variable 𝑍. Construct its probability distribution
𝑧 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
Probability Distribution:
𝒛 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟒 𝟓 𝟔
𝑷(𝒛)
PRACTICE EXERCISES:
1. When can we say that a distribution is a discrete
probability distribution?
2. Which of the following shows a discrete probability
distribution?
Discrete probability a. 𝒙 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟒 𝟓
distribution 𝑷(𝒙) 𝟏/𝟏𝟎 𝟏/𝟓 𝟑/𝟏𝟎 𝟕/𝟐𝟎 𝟏/𝟐𝟎
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES 𝒚
𝑷(𝒚)
PRACTICE EXERCISES:
4. From a box containing 4 black balls and 2 green balls, 2 balls are drawn in
succession. Each ball is placed back in the box before the next draw is
made. Let 𝑋 a random variable representing the number of green balls that
occur. Find the values of the random variable 𝑋 and its probability distribution
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES 𝒙
𝒙
𝑷(𝒙)
STATISTICS AND
PROBABILITY
Science, Technology, Engineering and
Mathematics
Learning Objectives:
At the end of the lesson, the learner shall be able to:
1. illustrate the mean and variance of a discrete random
variable.
2. calculate the mean and the variance of a discrete
random variable.
3. interpret the mean and the variance of a discrete
random variable.
4. solve problems involving mean and variance of
probability distributions.
Activity!
The frequency distribution below Number of
are the scores of 40 students in a Score
Students
test. Compute the mean score.
42 8
• What is the solved mean? 50 12
• How is the mean of a frequency 53 9
distribution computed? 38 7
• What does the solved mean
46 4
imply?
The Mean of a Discrete Random Variable
The mean of a discrete random variable 𝑿 is also
called the expected value of 𝑿. It is the weighted
average of the possible values that the random
variable can take.
where:
𝑋 = discrete random variable
𝑥𝑖 = outcome or value of the random variable
𝑃 𝑥𝑖 = probability of the outcome 𝑥𝑖
Steps in solving the mean of a discrete random
variable:
Solution
Let 𝑋 be the number of dots on the top face.
So, the probability distribution of 𝑋 is given by
𝒙
𝑷(𝒙)
So, we have
𝒙 𝑷(𝒙) 𝒙𝑷 𝒙
𝟏 𝟏/𝟔
𝟐 𝟏/𝟔
𝟑 𝟏/𝟔
𝟒 𝟏/𝟔
𝟓 𝟏/𝟔
𝟔 𝟏/𝟔
∑𝒙𝑷 𝒙 =
So, we have
𝒚 𝟎 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟒 𝟓
𝑷(𝒚) 𝟎 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟏
∑𝒙𝑷 𝒙 =
Solution
𝒙 𝑷(𝒙) 𝒙𝑷 𝒙
𝟎 𝟎 𝟎 So, 𝑬 𝑿 = 𝟑. 𝟎. Thus, the
average number of people
𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏
entering the bank every
𝟐 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟒 hour during working day is 3.
𝟑 𝟎. 𝟒 𝟏. 𝟐
𝟒 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟖
𝟓 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟓
∑𝒙𝑷 𝒙 = 𝟑. 𝟎
Example 3
One thousand tickets are sold at 100 pesos
each for a color television valued at 35 000
pesos. What is the expected value of the gain
if you purchase one ticket?
a. Construct its probability distribution.
b. Two things should be noted. First, for a win, the net gain is
34 900 pesos, since you do not get the cost of the ticket (100
pesos) back. Second, for a loss, the gain is represented by a
negative number, in this case −100 pesos. The solution, then, is
𝟑𝟒 𝟗𝟎𝟎 𝟗𝟗 𝟗𝟎𝟎 𝟔𝟓 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑬 𝑿 = + − =− = −₱𝟔𝟓
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
Note that the expectation is −65 pesos. This does
not mean that you lose 65 pesos, since you can only
win a television set valued at 35 000 pesos or lose 100
pesos on the ticket. What this expectation means is
that the average of the losses is 65 pesos for each of
the 1000 ticket holders.
where:
𝑥𝑖 = value of the random variable
𝑃 𝑥𝑖 = probability of the random variable 𝑋
𝜇 = mean of the probability distribution
Alternatively, the variance of a discrete
probability distribution of the random variable 𝑋,
denoted by 𝝈 , is given by the formula:
𝟐
𝝈𝟐 = 𝒙𝟐𝒊 𝑷 𝒙𝒊 − 𝝁𝟐
where:
𝑥𝑖 = value of the random variable
𝑃 𝑥𝑖 = probability of the random variable 𝑋
𝜇 = mean of the probability distribution
The standard deviation of a discrete probability
distribution of the random variable 𝑋, denoted
by 𝝈, is given by the formula:
𝟐
𝝈= 𝝈𝟐 = 𝒙𝒊 − 𝝁 𝟐𝑷 𝒙𝒊 = 𝒙𝒊 𝑷 𝒙𝒊 − 𝝁𝟐
where:
𝑥𝑖 = value of the random variable
𝑃 𝑥𝑖 = probability of the random variable 𝑋
𝜇 = mean of the probability distribution
Steps in finding the variance and standard deviation:
(Using the ORIGINAL FORMULA)
∑𝒙𝑷 𝒙 = ∑𝒙𝟐 𝑷 𝒙 =
More Application:
Suit Sales
The number of suits sold per day at a retail store is shown
in the table, with the corresponding probabilities. Find
the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
distribution.
𝒙 𝟏𝟗 𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟏 𝟐𝟐 𝟐𝟑
𝑷(𝒙) 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟏
If the manager of the retail store wants to be sure that
he has enough suits for the next 5 days, how many
should the manager purchase?
ANSWER: 𝟐𝟎. 𝟖; 𝟏. 𝟔; 𝟏. 𝟑; 𝟏𝟎𝟒 suits
Number of Credit Cards
A bank vice president feels that each savings
account customer has, on average, three credit
cards. The following distribution represents the number
of credit cards people own. Find the mean, variance,
and standard deviation.
𝒙 𝟎 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟒
𝑷(𝒙) 𝟎. 𝟏𝟖 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑
Is the vice president correct?
𝒙 𝟒 𝟓 𝟔 𝟖 𝟏𝟎
𝑷(𝒙) 𝟎. 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓
What is the probability that they will sell 6 or more
contracts three days in a row?
Bell-shaped Curve or
Gaussian Distribution
Data values are evenly distributed about the mean
Data values fall to the right of the mean
Data values fall to the left of the mean
Note that the “tail” of the curve indicates the
direction of skewness (right is positive, left is
negative).
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
𝟑𝟒% 𝟑𝟒%
𝟐. 𝟑𝟓% 𝟐. 𝟑𝟓%
𝟎. 𝟏𝟓% 𝟏𝟑. 𝟓% 𝟏𝟑. 𝟓%
𝟎. 𝟏𝟓%
Application
1. In the distributions shown, state the
mean and standard deviation.
2. What scores are found up
to 1 standard deviation
away from the mean?
3. What percentage
comprises the range of
scores in item no. 2?
𝟑𝟒% 𝟑𝟒%
𝟐. 𝟑𝟓% 𝟐. 𝟑𝟓%
𝟎. 𝟏𝟓% 𝟏𝟑. 𝟓% 𝟏𝟑. 𝟓%
𝟎. 𝟏𝟓%
−𝟑 −𝟐 −𝟏 𝟎 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑
Comparison
If the 𝑧 values are less than −3.49, use the area 0.0001.
If the 𝑧 values are greater than 3.49, use the area 0.999.
STATISTICS AND
PROBABILITY
Science, Technology, Engineering and
Mathematics
Learning Outcomes:
At the end of the lesson, the learner shall be
able to:
If the 𝑧 values are less than −3.49, use the area 0.0001.
where
𝑛 = sample size
𝑁 = population size
𝑒 = margin of error
Types of Probability Sampling
Statistic
a characteristic or measure
obtained by using the data
values from a sample.
Comparison
STATISTIC PARAMETER
Parameter:
-the average death age of Filipino women in the last
decade
Statistics:
- a sample of 𝟏𝟎𝟎 deaths
- a sample mean age of 𝟕𝟑
2. A researcher wants to know the average weight of
females aged 22 years or older in Butuan City. The
researcher obtains the average weight of 54 kg, from a
random sample of 40 females.
Parameter:
-the average weight of females aged 22 years or older in
Butuan City
Statistics:
- the average weight of 54 kg
- a random sample of 40 females.
3. A researcher wants to estimate the average amount
of water consumed by male teenagers in a day. From
a simple random sample of 55 male teens the
researcher obtains an average of 1.5 L of water.
Parameter:
-the average amount of water consumed by male
teenagers in a day
Statistics:
- simple random sample of 55 male teens
- an average of 1.5 L of water
The population mean is defined as
1 𝑁
𝜇 = ∑𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
𝑁
𝜇 = 66.26
Note:
The sample means now from the illustration constitute
a sampling distribution of sample means.
Definition
A sampling distribution of sample means 𝒙
ഥ is a
distribution using the means computed from all
possible random samples of a specific size taken
from a population.
Mean : 𝝁𝒙ഥ = ∑ഥ
𝒙𝑷𝒙ഥ
Variance : 𝟐
𝝈𝒙ഥ = ∑ഥ 𝟐
𝒙 𝑷 ഥ
𝒙 − 𝟐
𝝁𝒙ഥ
ഥ
𝒙
𝑷ഥ𝒙
d. Solve for the mean, variance and standard
deviation of the sample means.
ഥ
𝒙 𝑷ഥ𝒙 ഥ𝑷ഥ𝒙
𝒙 ഥ𝟐
𝒙 ഥ𝟐 𝑷ഥ𝒙
𝒙
𝟐 𝟏
𝟏𝟔
𝟑 𝟐
𝟏𝟔
𝟒 𝟑
𝟏𝟔
𝟓 𝟒
𝟏𝟔
𝟔 𝟑
𝟏𝟔
𝟕 𝟐
𝟏𝟔
𝟖 𝟏
𝟏𝟔
ഥ𝑷ഥ𝒙 =
𝒙 ഥ𝟐 𝑷ഥ𝒙 =
𝒙
e. Compare 𝝁 and 𝝁𝒙ഥ .
Samples ഥ
𝒙
ഥ
𝒙
(𝒏 = 𝟐)
𝑷ഥ𝒙
ഥ
𝒙 𝑷ഥ𝒙 ഥ
𝒙𝑷ഥ𝒙 𝒙𝟐
ഥ 𝒙𝟐 𝑷ഥ𝒙
ഥ
1
3
6
1
4
6
2
5
6
1
6
6
1
7
6
ഥ𝑷ഥ𝒙 =
𝒙 ഥ𝟐 𝑷ഥ𝒙 =
𝒙
STATISTICS AND
PROBABILITY
Science, Technology, Engineering and
Mathematics
Learning Outcomes:
At the end of the lesson, the learner shall be able
to:
1. It is bell-shaped.
2. It is symmetric about the mean.
3. The mean, median, and mode are equal to 0
and are located at the center of the distribution.
4. The curve never touches the x axis.
Degrees of Freedom and
𝒕 Distribution as Family of Curves
The degrees of freedom are the number of values that are
free to vary after a sample statistic has been computed,
and they tell the researcher which specific curve to use
when a distribution consists of a family of curves.
Degrees of Freedom and
𝒕 Distribution as Family of Curves
Note that the symbol 𝑑. 𝑓. Will be used for degrees
of freedom. It is found by subtracting the sample
size 𝑛 by 1. That is 𝑑. 𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1.
The 𝒕 Distribution Table
Example 1:
Find the value of 𝑡 to the right of the mean when
𝑛 = 22 and 𝛼 = 0.01.
Example 2:
Find the value of 𝑡 to the left of the mean when 𝑛 =
26 and 𝛼 = 0.05.
Example 3:
Find the value of 𝑡 to the left and to the right of the
mean when 𝑛 = 26 and 𝛼 = 0.20.
When a 𝑑. 𝑓. falls in between 2 values, for
example, if it falls between 65 and 70 . Many
textbooks say to use the closest value, for
example, 68 is closer to 70 than 65; however, in the
reference book that we use, a conservative
approach is used. In this case, always round down
to the nearest table value. In this case, 68 rounds
down to 65.
Percentiles
Percentiles divide the data set into 100 equal groups. Percentile
rank indicates the position of a certain value of a random
variable with respect to the other values.