Experience Seamless Full Ebook Downloads for Every Genre at ebookluna.

com

(eBook PDF) Real Econometrics: The Right Tools to

Answer Important Questions by Michael Bailey

https://ebookluna.com/product/ebook-pdf-real-econometrics-
the-right-tools-to-answer-important-questions-by-michael-
bailey/

OR CLICK BUTTON

DOWNLOAD NOW

Explore and download more ebook at https://ebookluna.com

 Instant digital products (PDF, ePub, MOBI) available
Download now and explore formats that suit you...

(eBook PDF) Real Econometrics: The Right Tools to Answer

Important Questions 2nd Edition

https://ebookluna.com/product/ebook-pdf-real-econometrics-the-right-
tools-to-answer-important-questions-2nd-edition/

ebookluna.com

(Original PDF) Asking the Right Questions A Guide to

Critical Thinking 12th

https://ebookluna.com/product/original-pdf-asking-the-right-questions-
a-guide-to-critical-thinking-12th/

ebookluna.com

(eBook PDF) Marketing: Real People Real Choices 3rd

Edition By Michael Solomon

https://ebookluna.com/product/ebook-pdf-marketing-real-people-real-
choices-3rd-edition-by-michael-solomon/

ebookluna.com

Marketing: Real People, Real Choices, Global Edition, 11th

Edition Michael Solomon - eBook PDF

https://ebookluna.com/download/marketing-real-people-real-choices-
global-edition-11th-edition-ebook-pdf/

ebookluna.com
(Original PDF) Real Stats Using Econometrics for Political
Science and Public Policy

https://ebookluna.com/product/original-pdf-real-stats-using-
econometrics-for-political-science-and-public-policy/

ebookluna.com

(eBook PDF) Organizational Behavior: Real Solutions to

Real Challenges

https://ebookluna.com/product/ebook-pdf-organizational-behavior-real-
solutions-to-real-challenges/

ebookluna.com

(eBook PDF) Organizational Behavior: Real Solutions to

Real Challenges

https://ebookluna.com/product/ebook-pdf-organizational-behavior-real-
solutions-to-real-challenges-2/

ebookluna.com

(eBook PDF) Introduction to Econometrics 4th Edition by

James H. Stock

https://ebookluna.com/product/ebook-pdf-introduction-to-
econometrics-4th-edition-by-james-h-stock/

ebookluna.com

The Big Questions: A Short Introduction to Philosophy -

eBook PDF

https://ebookluna.com/download/the-big-questions-a-short-introduction-
to-philosophy-ebook-pdf/

ebookluna.com
 CONTENTS vii

12.2 Using Latent Variables to Explain Observed Variables 406

12.3 Probit and Logit Models 410
12.4 Estimation 415
12.5 Interpreting Probit and Logit Coefficients 418
CASE STUDY: Econometrics in the Grocery Store 423
12.6 Hypothesis Testing about Multiple Coefficients 427
CASE STUDY: Civil Wars 432
Conclusion 434 • Further Reading 435 • Key Terms 436
• Computing Corner 436 • Exercises 440

IV ADVANCED MATERIAL 447

Time Series: Dealing with Stickiness over Time 449

13. 1 Model ing Autocorrelation 450
13.2 Detecting Autocorrelation 453
13.3 Fixing Autocorrelation 457
CASE STUDY: Using an AR( I) Model to Study Global Temperature
Changes 460
13.4 Dynamic Models 462
13.5 Stationarity 465
CASE STUDY: Dynamic Model of Global Temperature 47 1
Conclusion 475 • Further Reading 476 • Key Terms 477
• Computing Corner 477 • Exercises 479

Advanced OLS 481

14. 1 How to Derive the OLS Estimator and Prove Unbiasedness 481
14.2 How to Derive the Equation for the Variance of /j1 487
14.3 How to Derive the Omitted Variable Bias Conditions 489
14.4 Anticipating the Sign of Omitted Variable Bias 491
14.5 Omitted Variable Bias with Multiple Variables 494
14.6 Omitted Variable Bias due to Measurement Error 495
Conclusion 497 • Further Reading 497 • Key Term 498
• Computing Corner 498 • Exercises 498
viii CONTENTS

Advanced Panel Data 501

I 5.1 Panel Data Models with Serially Correlated E rrors SOI
I 5.2 Temporal Dependence w ith a Lagged Dependent Variable 503
I 5.3 Random Effects Models 507
Conclusion 509 • Further Readi ng 509 • Key Term S IO
• Computing Comer S 10 • Exercises S 13

Conclusion: How to Be an Econometric Realist 516

Further Reading 520

APPENDICES
Math and Probability Background 52 1
A. Summation 521
B. Expectation 521
C. Variance 522
D. Covariance 523
E. Correlation 524
F. Probabi lity Density Functions 524
G. Normal Distributions 526
H. Other Useful Distributions 532
I. Sampling 534
Further Reading 537 • Key Terms 537 • Computing Corner 537

Citat ions and Add it ional Notes 539

Guide to Review Questions 549

Bibliog raphy/Photo Credits 559

Glossary 568

Index 577
LIST OF FIGURES

I. I Rule # I 2
1.2 Weight and Donuts in Springfield 4
1.3 Regression Line for Weight and Donuts in Springfield 5
1.4 Examples of Lines Generated by Core Statistical Model (for Review
Question) 7
1.5 Correlation 10
1.6 Possible Relationships Between X, E, and Y (for Discussion
Questions) 12
1.7 Two Scenarios for the Relationship between Flu Shots and Health 14

2.1 Two Versions of Debt and Growth Data 25

2.2 Weight and Donuts in Springfield 27
2.3 Scatterplots of Violent Crime against Percent Urban, Single Parent,
and Poverty 31

3.1 Relationship bet,veen Income Growth and Vote for the Incumbent
President's Party, 1948-2012 46
3.2 Elections and Income Growth with Model Parameters Indicated 51
3.3 Fitted Values and Residuals for Observations in Table 3. 1 52
3.4 Four Distributions 55
3.5 Distribution of /J, 58
A

3.6 Two Distributions with Di fferent Variances of /J, 62

3.7 Four Scatterplots (for Review Questions on page 63) 64
A

3.8 Distributions of /J, for Different Sample Sizes 66

3.9 Plots with Different Goodness of Fit 72
3.10 Height and Wages 74
3.1 1 Scatterplot of Violent Crime and Percent Urban 77
3.12 Scatterplots of Crime against Percent Urban, Single Parent, and
Poverty with OLS Fitted Lines 78

ix
X LIST OF FIGURES

Distribution of p, under the Null Hypothesis for Presidential

A

4.1
Election Example 95
Distribution of p, under the Null Hypothesis with Larger Standard
A

4.2
Error for Presidential Election Example 99
4.3 Three t Distributions JOO
4.4 Critical Values for Large-Sample t Tests 102
4.5 1\vo Examples of p Values 107
4.6 Statistical Power for Three Values of p, Given a= 0.01 and a
One-S ided Alternative Hypothesis 110
4.7 Power Curves for Two Values of se(/J1) 113
4.8 Meaning of Confidence Interval for Example of 0.41 ± 0.196 118

5. 1 Monthly Retai l Sales and Temperature in New Jersey

from 1992 to 2013 129
5.2 Monthly Retai l Sales and Temperature in New Jersey with
December Indicated 130
5.3 95 Percent Confidence Intervals for Coefficients in Adult Height,
Adolescent Height, and Wage Models 134
5.4 Economic Growth, Years of School, and Test Scores 143

6. 1 Goal Differentials for Home and Away Games for Manchester City
and Manchester United 168
6.2 Bivariate OLS with a Dummy Independent Variable 171
6.3 Scatterplot of Obama Feeling Thermometers and Party
Identification 173
6.4 Three Difference of Means Tests for Review Questions 174
6.5 Scatterplot of Height and Gender 176
6.6 Another Scatterplot of Height and Gender 177
6.7 Fitted Values for Model with Dummy Variable and Control
Variable: Manchester City Example 180
6.8 Relation bet,veen Omitted Variable (Year) and Other Variables 187
6.9 Confidence Intervals for Universal Male Suffrage Variable in
Table 6.8 190
6. 10 Interaction Model of Salaries for Men and Women 192
6. 11 Various Fitted Lines from Dummy Interaction Models (for Review
Questions) 194
 LIST OF FIGURES xi

6.12 Heating Used and Heating Degree-Days for Homeowner Who

Instal led a Programmable Thermostat 196
6.13 Heating Used and Heating Degree-Days with Fitted Values for
Different Models 199
6.14 Marginal Effect of Text Ban as Total Miles Changes 204

7. I Average Life Satisfaction by Age in the United States 208

7.2 Life Expectancy and per Capita GDP in 2011 for All Countries
in the World 210
7.3 Linear and Quadratic Fitted Lines for Life Expectancy Data 211
7.4 Examples of Quadratic Fitted Curves 212
7.5 Global Temperature over Time 215
7.6 Hypothetical Investment Data (for Review Questions) 217
7.7 Linear-Log Model for Life Expectancy Data 220

8.1 Robberies and Police for Large Cities in California 250

8.2 Robberies and Police for Specified Cities in California 250
8.3 Robberies and Police for Specified Cities in California with
City-Specific Regression Lines 251
8.4 Robberies and Police for Hypothetical Cities in California 257
8.5 Difference-in-Difference Examples 270
8.6 More Difference-in-Difference Examples (for Review Question) 274

9. I Conditions for Instrumental Variables 294

9.2 Simultaneous Equation Model 309

I 0. 1 Compliance and Non-compliance in Experiments 334

11. 1 Drinking Age and Test Scores 366

11.2 Basic Regression Discontinuity Model, Y; =(Jo+ (J, T; + fJ2(Xi; - C) 369
11.3 Possible Results with Basic RD Model 370
11.4 Possible Results with Differing-Slopes RD Model 374
11.5 Fitted Lines for Examples of Polynomial RD Models 375
11.6 Various Fitted Lines for RD Model of Form
Y; = flo + fl, T; + fh(Xi; - C) + fh(Xi; - C)T; (for Review Question) 377
xi i UST OF FIGURES

11.7 Smaller Windows for Fitted Lines for Polynomial RD Model in

Figure I 1.5 379
11.8 Bin Plots for RD Model 380
11.9 Binned Graph of Test Scores and Pre-K Attendance 382
11.10 Histograms of Assignment Variable for RD Analysis 385
11.1 1 Histogram of Age Observations for Drinking Age Case Study 388

12. 1 Scatterplot of Law School Admissions Data and LPM Fitted Line 404
12.2 Misspec ification Problem in an LPM 405
12.3 Scatterplot of Law School Admissions Data and LPM- and
Probit-Fitted Lines 407
12.4 Symmetry of Normal Distribution 4 11
12.5 PDFs and CDFs 4 12
12.6 Examples of Data and Fitted Lines Estimated by Probit 416
12.7 Varying Effect of X in Probit Model 4 19
12.8 Fitted Lines from LPM, Probit, and Logit Models 427
12.9 Fitted Lines from LPM and Probit Models for Civil War Data
(Holdi ng Ethnic and Religious Variables at Their Means) 434
12. 10 Figure Included for Some Respondents in Global Warming Survey
Experiment 444

13. 1 Examples of Autocorrelation 452

13.2 Global Average Temperanire since 1880 455
13.3 Global Temperature Data 461
13.4 Data with Unit Roots and Sptirious Regression 468
13.5 Data without Unit Roots 469
13.6 Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Data 472

A. I An Example of a Probability Density Function (PDF) 525

A.2 Probabilities That a Standard Normal Random Variable
Is Less than Some Value 526
A.3 Probabilities That a Standard Normal Random Variable
Is Greater than Some Value 527
A.4 Standard Normal Distribution 528
A.5 1\vo x2 Distributions 533
A.6 Four F Distributions 535
R. 1 Identifying (30 from a Scatterplot 550
LIST OFTABLES

I. I Donut Consumption and Weight 3

2.1 Descriptive Statistics for Donut and Weight Data 26

2.2 Frequency Table for Male Variable in Donut Data Set 26
2.3 Frequency Table for Male Variable in Second Donut Data Set 27
2.4 Codebook for Height and Wage Data 29
2.5 Descriptive Statistics for State Crime Data 31
2.6 Variables for Wi nter Olympics Questions 39
2.7 Variables for Height and Wages Data in the United States 40

3.1 Selected Observations from Election and Income Data 51

3.2 Effect of Height on Wages 75
3.3 OLS Models of Crime in U.S. States 77
3.4 Variables for Questions on Presidential Elections and the Economy 86
3.5 Variables for Height and Wage Data in Britain 89
3.6 Variables for Divorce Rate and Hours Worked 89

4.1 Type I and Type II Errors 93

4.2 Effect of Income Changes on Presidential Elections 95
4.3 Decision Rules for Various Alternative Hypotheses 10 I
4.4 Critical Values fort Distribution 104
4.5 Effect of Height on Wages with t Statistics 104
4.6 Calculating Confidence Intervals for Large Samples 119
4.7 Variables for Height and Wage Data in the United States 123

5.1 Bivariate and Multivariate Results for Retail Sales Data 131
5.2 Bivariate and Multiple Multivariate Results for Height
and Wages Data 133

xiii
xiv LIST OF TABLES

5.3 Using Multiple Measures of Education to Study Economic Growth

and Education 142
5.4 Effects of Judicial Independence on Human Rights 154
5.5 Variables for Height and Wage Data in the United States 161
5.6 Variables for Cell Phones and Traffic Deaths Data 163
5.7 Variables for Speedi ng Ticket Data 164
5.8 Variables for Height and Wage Data in Britain 165

6. 1 Feel ing Thermometer Toward Barack Obama 172

6.2 Difference of Means Test for Height and Gender 176
6.3 Another Way to Show Difference of Means Test Results for
Height and Gender 178
6.4 Manchester City Example with Dummy and Continuous
Independent Variables 179
6.5 Using Different Excluded Categories for Wages and Region 183
6.6 Hypothetical Results for Wages and Region When Different
Categories Are Excluded 185
6.7 Difference of Means of Inheritance Taxes for Countries with
Universal Male Suffrage, 1816-2000 186
6.8 Multivariate OLS Analysis of Inheritance Taxes 189
6.9 Interpreting Coefficients in Dummy Interaction Model:
Yi = /Jo+ /J1Xi + (hDi + (hXi x Di 193
6. 10 Data from Programmable Thermostat and Home Heating Bills 197
6. 11 Variables for Monetary Policy Data 202
6. 12 Variables for Speedi ng Ticket Data 205

7. I Global Temperature, 1879-2012 2 16

7.2 Different Logged Models of Relationship bet,veen
Height and Wages 221
7.3 Determi nants of Major League Baseball Salaries, 1985-2005 223
7.4 Means and Standard Deviations of Baseball Variables 224
7.5 Means and Standard Deviations of Baseball Variables
for Three Players 225
7.6 Standardized Determinants of Major League Basebal l Salaries,
1985-2005 225
7.7 Unrestricted and Restricted Models for F Tests 233
7.8 Variables for Pol itical Instability Data 239
 LIST OF TABLES XV

7.9 Variables for Global Education Data 240

7. IO Variables for Height and Wage Data in Britain 241
7 .1 1 Variables for Speeding Ticket Data 242

8.1 Basic OLS Analysis of Burglary and Pol ice Officers 249
8.2 Example of Robbery and Police Data for Cities in California 255
8.3 Robberies and Police Data for Hypothetical Cities in California 257
8.4 Burglary and Police Officers, Pooled versus Fixed Effects Models 258
8.5 Burglary and Police Officers, for Multiple Models 265
8.6 Bilateral Trade, Pooled versus Fixed Effects Models 267
8.7 Effect of Stand Your Ground Laws on Homicide Rate per 100,000
Residents 272
8.8 Variables for Presidential Approval Data 280
8.9 Variables for Peace Corps Data 281
8.10 Variables for Instructor Evaluation Data 282
8.1 1 Variables for the HOPE Scholarship Data 283
8.12 Variables for the Texas School Board Data 284
8.13 Variables in the Cell Phones and Traffic Deaths Data 285

9.1 Levitt (2002) Results on Effect of Pol ice Officers on Violent Crime 289
9.2 Intluence of Distance on NICU Utilization (First-Stage Results) 298
9.3 Intluence of NICU Utilization on Baby Mortality 299
9.4 Regression Results for Models Relating to Drinking and Grades 300
9.5 Price and Quantity Supplied Equations for U.S. Chicken Market 3 13
9.6 Price and Quantity Demanded Equations for U.S. Chicken Market 3 14
9.7 Variables for Rainfall and Economic Growth Data 3 19
9.8 Variables for News Program Data 320
9.9 Variables for Fish Market Data 321
9.10 Variables for Education and Crime Data 322
9.1 1 Variables for Income and Democracy Data 323
xvi LIST OF TABLES

I 0. 1 Balancing Tests for the Progresa Experiment: Differences of

Means Tests Using OLS 331
10.2 First-Stage Regression in Campaign Experiment: Explaining
Contact 339
I 0.3 Second-Stage Regression in Campaign Experiment: Explaining
1\1rnout 340
I 0.4 Various Measures of Campaign Contact in 2SLS Model for
Selected Observations 341
10.5 First-Stage Regression in Domestic Violence Experiment:
Explaining Arrests 343
I 0.6 Selected Observations for Minneapolis Domestic Violence
Experiment 344
10.7 Using Different Estimators to Analyze the Results of the
Domestic Violence Experiment 345
I 0.8 Regression Results for Models Relating Teacher Payment
Experiment (for Review Questions) 352
I 0.9 Effect of Terror Alerts on Crime 355
10. 10 Variables for Get-out-the-Vote Experiment from Gerber and
Green (2005) 359
JO.I I Variables for Resume Experiment 361
I 0.12 Variables for Afghan School Experiment 363

I I. I RD Analysis of Prekindergarten 383

11.2 RD Analysis of Drinking Age and Test Scores 388
11.3 RD Diagnostics for Drinking Age and Test Scores 389
11.4 Variables for Prekindergarten Data 392
11.5 Variables for Congressional Ideology Data 394
11.6 Variables for Head Start Data 396

12. 1 LPM Model of the Probability of Admission to Law School 403

12.2 Sample Probit Results for Review Questions 418
12.3 Multiple Models of Probabil ity of Buying Store-Brand Ketchup 424
12.4 Estimated Effect of Independent Variables on Probability of Buying
Store-Brand Ketchup 425
12.5 Unrestricted and Restricted Probit Results for LR Test 430
 LIST OF TABLES xvii

12.6 Probit Models of the Determinants of Civi l Wars 433

12.7 Variables for Iraq War Data 441
12.8 Variables for Global Warming Data 442
12.9 Variables for Football Coach Data 444
12. 10 Variables for Donor Experiment 446
12. 11 Balance Tests for Donor Experiment 446

13. 1 Using OLS and Lagged Error Model to Detect Autocorrelation 456
13.2 Example of p-Transformed Data (for fi = 0.5) 458
13.3 Global Temperature Model Estimated by Using OLS and via
p- Transformed Data 462
13.4 Dickey-Fuller Tests for Stationarity 473
13.5 Change in Temperature as a Function of Change in Carbon Dioxide
and Other Factors 474
13.6 Variables for James Bond Movie Data 480

14. 1 Effect of Omitting X2 on Coefficient Estimate for X1 493

14.2 Variables for Winter Olympics Data 499

15. 1 Another Set of Variables for Winter Olympics Data 513

A. I Examples of Standardized Values 530

R. I Values of fio,fli ,/32, and /33 in Figure 8.6 554
 USEFUL COMMANDS FOR STATA

Task Command Example Chapter

Help help help summarize 2

Comment line • * This is a commem Jjne 2
Comment on command line I* *I use "C:\Dat.a.dla" I* This is a comment */
Continue line I* *I reg y X I X2 X3/•
•J X4 X5
Load Stata data file use use "C:\Data.dta" 2
Load text data fi le insheet in.sheet u.sjng "C:\Data.cxt'" 2
Display variables in memory list Jjst /*Lis1s all observatioll.~ for all variable.~ */ 2
list Y XI* List~ all observations for Y and X *I 2
list X in 1/10 /* Lists firs1 10 observation.~ for X *I 2
Descriptive sta1js1ics summarize summarize X 1 X 2 Y 2
f requency table tabulate tabulate XI 2
Scatter plOI scauer scatter Y X 2
scatter Y X. mlabel(name) / • Adds labels •/ 2
Limit data if summarize X 1 if X2 == 1 2
Not equal != summarize X 1 if X2 !-0 3
f4uaJ (a.~ used in if statement for example) summarize X 1 if X2 == 1 2
Missing data in Stata Stata creats missing data as having infini te vaJue. so
Iisl X 1 if X2 > 0 will include vaJues of X I for
which X2 is missing
Regression reg reg YX I X2 3
Heteroscedastic.ity robust regression • robust reg Y X I X2. robus1 3
Generate predicred values predic.t predic1 FittedY / * Run this after reg command */ 3
Add regres..~ion line to scatter plot twoway. lfit 1woway (scatter Y X)(l6t Y X) 3
Critkal value fort disttibution. two-sided invttail display im11ail( l20, .05/2) t• For model with 120 4
=
degrees of freedom and alpha 0.05: note that
we divide a.Jpha by 2 */
Critkal value fort distribution. one-sided invttail display im11ail( 120, .05) I* For model wi~l 120 4
=
degrees of freedom and alpha 0.05 *I
Critical value for normal distribution, two-sided invnonnal display inmomial(.975) / • For alpha= 0.05. note 4
that we dhride aJpha by 2 *I
Critical value for normal distribution, one-sided invnormal display inmomial(.05) 4
Two sided p values [ Reported in reg o utput] 4
One sided p values Hail display 2*ttail( J20. 1.69)/• For model with 120 4
degrees of freedom and at statistic of 1.69 •t
Confidence i ntervaJs [ Reported in reg output] 4
Difference of means test reg reg Y Dum / • Where Dum is a dummy variable*/ 6
Create an imeraction variable gen gen DumX = Dum * X 6

xviii
 USEFUL COMMANDS FOR STATA xix

Task Command Example Chapter

Create a squared variable gen gen x _sq =X"2 7

Create a Jogged variable gen gen X _Jog =log( X ) 7
Delete a variable drop drop X7
Produce standardized regression coefficients , beta reg Y X I X2, beta 7
Produce standardized variable egen =
egen X_std std(X) / • Creates variable called 7
x_std *I
F-te.~t tes1 = =0 / * Run this after regres..~ion with
test XI X2 7
XI and X2 in model */
Critical value for F test invF display invF(2. I 20. 0.95) / • Degrees of freedom 7
equal 2 and I 20 (order matters!) and alpha =
0.05 .,
Generate dummy variable.~ for each unit tabulate and tabulate City. generare(City_dum) g
generate
LSOV model for panel data reg reg Y X I X2 City_dum2 - City_dum&O g
De-meaned model for panel data xtreg xtreg Y XI X2. fe i(City) g
Tv,•o-\vay fixed.effecL~ xtreg xtreg Y XI X2 i.year Yr2- Yr 10. fe i(City) 8
2SLS model h•regress ivregress 2sls Y X2 X3 (X I = Z), first 9
Prob it probit probit Y X I X2 X3 12
Logit logit logit Y XI X2 X3 12
Critical value for chi-square te.~t invch.i2 display invchi2( I. 0.95) /* Degrees of freedom= 12
I and 0.95 confidence level •/
Accoum for auloc.orrelalion in time serie.~ dala prajs lssel Year 13
prais Y XI X2. core lwostep
Include lagged dependent variable L.Y reg Y L. Y X1 X2 /* Run cssel command firsl */ 13
Augmemed. Did::ey.fuJJer lest dfuller dfuller Y. trend lags( I) regress 13
Generale draws from standard normal momiaJ gen Noise= mormal(0,1) /* Length wiJJ be same 14
dist.ribution a.~ length of "ariables in memory */
lndkate co Slala unil and time variables l~~t tssel ID ti me 15
Panel model with aulocorrelaljon xtregar xcregar Y X I X2. fe rhotype(regress) cwostep 15
Include lagged dependent variable L.Y xtreg Y L. Y XI X2. fe i(ID) 15
Random effects panel model , re xcreg Y XI X2. re 15
USEFUL COMMANDS FOR R

Task Command Example Chapter

Help ·1 '?mean 2
Comment line # # l'bis is a comment 2
Load R da1a fi le Daia = "C:\ Da1a.RDa1a .. 2
Load text d ata file read.table Darn= read.table("C:\ Daia.txt ... header = TRUE) 2
Di.splay names of "ariables in memory object~ objects()# Will list names of all variables in memory 2
Display variables in memory [enter "ariable X 1 # Di.splay all values of this variable: enter directJy in console 2
name] or highlight in editor and press ctrl·r
X I [ I: JO) # Display first 10 value., of X I 2
Missing d ata in R NA
Mean mean mean(XI) 2
mean(XI. na.mt=TRUE) # Necessary if there are missing values
Variance var var(X I) 2
var(X I. na.rm=TRUE) # Necessary if there are missing vaJues
sqit(var(X I)) # This is the s1andard d eviation of X I
Minimum min min(X I. na.nn=TRUE) 2
Maximum max ma.x(X I, na.rm=TRUE) 2
Number of obsen•alions sum and is.finite sum(is.fi ni1e(X I)) 2
f requency table table table(X I)
Sc.atter plot plot plot(X. Y) 2
text(X. Y. name) # Adds labels from variable c.aUed '"name'" 2
Limit data (similar to an if statement) 0 plot(Y(X3<10). Xl (Xk JO)) 2
f4ual (as used in if statement. for example) mean(XJ(X2==1)) # Mean of X I for c~se., where X2 equals I
,_
Not equal .- mean(X I LX I !=OJ)# Meru, of XI for obsen,ations where XI is
not equal to O
Regression Im lm(Y -X I + X2) # Im stands for "linear model" 3
ResuJts = lm(Y- X) # Creates an objecl called "Results'" that 3
stores coefficient~. standard errors. fitted values and other
infom1ation about this regression
Di.splay results summary summary(Resulls) # Do this atl:ercreating "Re.~ull~" 3
l nstaU a pack.age ins1a1J.pack.age.~ install.packages('"AER'") # Only do LJ1is once for each computer 3
Load a package library library(AER) # Include in every R session in which we use
pack.age specified in c,ommand
Heteroscedas1icity robust regression ooeftest(Results. vc,o v = voovHC(ResullS. type= " HC I .. )) 3
# Need to install and load A.ER package for this command. Do
this after creating OLS regression object called "Results'"
Generme predicted values $fitted.values ResuJtsSfitted.values# Run after creating OLS regression object 3
called "Re.~ull~"
Add regression line to sc.aner plot abline abline(Resulls) # Run after plol command and after creating 3
'"Resulls" object based on a bivariate regression

xx
 USEFUL COMMANDS FOR R xxi

Task Command Example Chapter

Critical value for Ldistribution. two-sided qt qt(0.975, 120) # For alpha= 0.05 and 120degree.,offreedom: 4
divide alpha by 2
Critical value fort djstribution. one-sjded qt qt(0.95. 120) # For alpha= 0.05 and 120 degree., of freedom 4
Critical value for nomiaJ distribution. two-sided qnorm qnonn(0.975) # For alpha= 0.05: divide alpha by 2 4
Critical value for nomiaJ distrilxltion. one-sided qnorm qnonn(0.95) # For alpha= 0.05 4
Two sided p values LReported in summ.ary(Re.wlts) output)
One sided p values pt 2*( 1-pt(abs( I.69). 120) # For model with 120 degrees of 4
freedom and at statjstic of 1.69
Confidence intervaJs con6nt con6nt(Re.wlts. level = 0.95) # Do after creating OLS object 4
c-.alled '"Re.~ulL~"
Difference of means test Im lm(Y-Dum) # Where Oum is a dummy variable 6
Create an interact.ion variable DumX = Oum • X # Or use<- in place of=
Create a squared variable X_sq =X'2 7
Create a Jogged variable X_log =log( X) 7
Produce standardized regression coefficients .scale Res.std= lm(scale(Y) -scale(X I)+ sc~Je(X2)) 7
Display R squared Sr.squared .summary(Results)$r.squared 7
Critical value for F te.st qf qf(.95. dfl = 2. df2 = 120) # Degrees of freedom equal 2 and 7
120 (order matters!) and alpha = 0.05
LSDV model for panel data factor Resulls = lm(Y - XI + factor(country)) # Fac1or adds a 8
dummy variable for every value of variable c-.alled c-ountry
One-way fixed-effecl~ model (de-meaned) plm library(plm) 8
Resulls = plm(Y - XI+ X2+ X3. da1a = d1a.
index=c('"c-ountry'"). model= "with.in")
Tv,,o-way fixed-effec[s model (de-meaned) plm library(phn) 8
Resulls = plm(Y - XI+ X2+ X3 data= dta.
index=c('"c.ountry'". ")•ear"). model="within'".
efrect = '"rwoways")
2SLS model ivreg library(AER) 9
ivreg(Y - XI + X2 + X3 IZI + 22 + X2 + X3)
Generate draws from standard normal distribution rnonn Noise= rnonn(500) # 500 draws from standard nom1aJ 14
di.stributjon
Panel model with autocorrelation [See Computing Corner in Chapter 15] 15
Include Jagged dependent variable plm with Resulls = plm(Y - lag(Y) + X I + X2, data= dta, index= 15
lag(Y) c("ID-. "time"). effect= "iwoways")
Random effects panel model plm with ResullS = plm(Y -XI + X2. da1a = d1a. model= "random") 15
"random"
PREFACE FOR STUDENTS:
HOW TH IS BOOK CAN HELP YOU
LEARN ECONOMETRICS

"Less dull than t raditional texts."-Student A.H.

"It would have been immensely helpful for me to have a textbook li ke this in
my classes th roughout my college and graduate experience. It feels more like
an interactive lea rning experience than simply reading equations and facts out
of a book and being expected to absorb them ."-Student S.A.
"I wish I had had th is book when I was fi rst exposed to the materia l- it wou ld
have saved a lot of t ime and hair-pulling... ."-Student J.H.
"Materia l is easy to understand, hard to forget."-Student M.H.

This book introduces the econometric tools necessary to answer important

questions. Do antipoverty programs work? Does unemployment affect inflation?
Does campaign spending affect election outcomes? These and many more
questions not only are interesting but also are important to answer correctly if
we want to support policies that are good for people, countries, and the world.
When using econometrics to answer such questions, we need always to
remember a single big idea: correlation is not causation. Just because variable
Y rises when variable X rises does not mean that variable X causes variable Y to
rise. The essential goal is to figure out when we can say that changes in variable
X wi ll lead to changes in variable Y.
This book helps us learn how to identify causal relationships with three
features seldom found in other econometrics textbooks. First, it focuses on
the tools that economic researchers use most. These are the real econometric
techniques that help us make reasonable claims about whether X causes Y, and
by using these tools, we can produce analyses that others can respect. We' ll get
the most out of our data whi le recognizing the limits in what we can say or how
confident we can be.
Our emphasis on real econom.etrics means that we skip obscure econometric
tools that could come up under certai n conditions: they are not discussed here.
Econometrics is too often complicated by books and teachers trying to do too
much. This book shows that we can have a sophisticated understanding of
statistical inference without having to catalog every method that our instructor
had to learn as a student.
Second, this book works with a single unifying framework. We don' t start
over with each new concept; instead, we build around a core model. That means
xxii
 PREFACE FOR STUDENTS xxiii

there is a single equation and a unifying set of assumptions that we poke, probe,
and expand throughout the book. This approach reduces the learning costs of
moving through the material and al lows us to go back and revisit material. As
with any skill, we probably won't fully understand any given technique the
first time we see it. We have to work at it, we have to work with it. We'll
get comfortable, we' ll see connections. Then it will click. Whether the skill is
jumping rope, typing, throwing a basebal l, or analyzing data, we have to do things
many times to get good at it. By sticking to a uni fying framework, we have more
chances to revisit what we have already learned. You'll also notice that I' m not
afraid to repeat myself on the important stuff. Really, I' m not afraid to repeat
myself.
Third, this book uses many examples from the pol icy, pol itical, and economic
worlds. So even if you do not care about " two-stage least squares" or "maximum
likelihood" in and of themselves, you will see how understanding these techniques
will affect what you think about education policy, trade pol icy, election outcomes,
and many other interesting issues. The examples and case studies make it clear
that the tools developed in this book are being used by contemporary applied
economists who are actually making a di fference with their empirical work.
Real Econo,netrics is meant to serve as the primary course textbook in
an introductory econometrics course or as a supplemental text providing more
intuition and context in a more advanced econometric methods course. As
more and more public policy and corporate decisions are based on statistical
and econometric analysis, this book can also be used outside of course work.
Econometrics has infi ltrated into every area of our lives-from e ntertainment to
sports (I no longer spit out my coffee when I come across an article on regression
analysis of National Hockey League players}-and a working knowledge of basic
econometric techniques can help anyone make better sense of the world around
them.

What's In This Book?

The preparation necessary to use this book successfully is modest. We use basic
algebra a fair bit, being careful to explain every step. You do not need calculus.
We refer to calculus when useful, and the book certainly could be used by a course
that works through some of the concepts using calculus, but you can understand
everything without knowing calculus.
We start with two introductory chapters. Chapter 1 lays out the central
challenge in econometrics. This is the chal lenge of making probabilistic yet
accurate claims about causal relations bet\veen variables. We present experiments
as an ideal way to conduct research, but we also show how experiments in the
real world are tricky and can't answer every question we care about. This chapter
provides the " big picture" context for econometric analysis that is every bit as
important as the specifics that follow.
Chapter 2 provides a practical foundation related to good econometric
practices. In every econometric analysis, data meets sofl\vare, and if we're not
xxiv PREFACE FOR STUDENTS

careful, we lose control. This chapter therefore seeks to teach good habits about
documenting analysis and understanding data.
The five chapters of Part I constitute the heart of the book. They introduce
ordinary least squares (OLS), also known as regression analysis. Chapter 3
introduces the most basic regression model, the bivariate OLS model. Chapter
4 shows how to use OLS to test hypotheses. Chapters 5 through 7 introduce
the multivariate OLS model and appl ications. By the end of Part I, you will
understand regression and be able to control for anything you can measure. You'll
also be able to fit curves to data and assess whether the effects of some variables
differ across groups, among other ski lls that will impress your friends.
Part II introduces techniques that constitute the modem econometric toolkit.
These are the techniques people use when they want to get published-or
paid. These techniques build on multivariate OLS to give us a better chance of
identifying causal relations between two variables. Chapter 8 covers a simple yet
powerful way to control for many factors we can 't measure directly. Chapter 9
covers instn1mental variable techniques, which work if we can find a variable
that affects our independent variable but not our dependent variable. Instrumental
variable techniques are a bit funky, but they can be very useful for isolating causal
effects. Chapter 10 covers randomized experiments. Although ideal in theory, in
practice such experiments often raise a number of challenges we need to address.
Chapter l l covers regression disconti nuity tools that can be used when we' re
studying the effect of variables that were allocated based on a fixed rule. For
example, Medicare is available to people in the United States only when they tum
65; admission to certai n private schools depends on a test score exceeding some
threshold. Focusing on policies that depend on such thresholds turns out to be a
great context for conducting credible econometric analysis.
Part III covers dichotomous dependent variable models. These are simply
models in which the outcome we care about takes on two possible values.
Examples and case sn1dies cover include high school graduation (someone
graduates or doesn't), unemployment (someone has a job or doesn 't), and
all iances (two countries sign an all iance treaty or don' t). We show how to apply
OLS to such models and then provide more elaborate models that address the
deficiencies of OLS in this context.
Part IV supplements the book with additional useful material. Chapter 13
covers time series data. The first part is a variation on OLS; the second part
introduces dynamic models that differ from OLS models in important ways.
Chapter 14 derives important OLS results and extends discussion on specific
topics. Chapter 15 goes into greater detai l on the vast literature on panel data,
showing how the various strands fit together.
Chapter 16 concludes the book with tips on adopti ng the mind-set of an
econometric realist. In fact, if you are looking for an overall understanding of
the power and limits of statistics, you might want to read this chapter first-then
read it again once you've learned all the statistical concepts covered in the other
chapters.
Random documents with unrelated
content Scribd suggests to you:
The Project Gutenberg eBook of Black April
 This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United
States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with
almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away
or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License
included with this ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you
are not located in the United States, you will have to check the
laws of the country where you are located before using this
eBook.

Title: Black April

Author: Julia Peterkin

Release date: January 3, 2024 [eBook #72611]

Language: English

Original publication: unknown: Grosset & Dunlap, 1927

Credits: Tim Lindell, David E. Brown, and the Online Distributed

Proofreading Team at https://www.pgdp.net (This file
was produced from images generously made available
by The Internet Archive)

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK BLACK APRIL ***

BLACK APRIL
 BLACK APRIL

by Julia Peterkin

GROSSET & DUNLAP, Publishers

by arrangement with
THE BOBBS-MERRILL COMPANY
 Copyright, 1927
By The Bobbs-Merrill Company

Printed in the United States of America

 To

JULIUS MOOD
 CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE
I April’s Father 11
II April’s Son 21
III Cousin Big Sue 40
IV Julia 52
V Blue Brook 57
VI Uncle Bill 66
VII A Birth-Night Supper 73
VIII The Premises 84
IX Saturday Afternoon 89
X The Barnyard 100
XI Hunting ’Possums and Turkeys 129
XII Duck-Hunting 138
XIII The Quilting 159
XIV Church 180
XV Field Work 199
XVI Plowing 203
XVII Hog-Killing 231
XVIII Joy and April 268
XIX At April’s House 287
XX Seeking 308
BLACK APRIL
 BLACK APRIL

I
APRIL’S FATHER

The cool spring dusk fell drowsy and soft over Sandy Island, all but
blotting out a log cabin that nestled under great moss-hung oaks
close to the river’s edge. The small drab weather-stained house
would scarcely have shown except for the fire that burned inside,
sending a bright glow through its wide-open door and showers of
sparks up its short stick-and-clay chimney.
A gaunt, elderly black man strode hastily toward it along the path
leading up from the river and went inside, but in a few minutes he
came to stand in the doorway, his bulk well-nigh filling it as one
broad shoulder leaned dejectedly against the lintel. When a moan
came from inside, his brawny hands clenched and buckled in a
foolish helpless way, and a frown knitted his forehead as he cast a
glance at the old black woman who pattered back and forth from the
hearth to the bed in the corner with a cupful of root-tea or a bit of
hot grease in a spoon or a pinch of salt in the palm of her hand.
Once in a while she called to him that everything was going well. To-
morrow this same girl would laugh at all these groans and tears.
Birthing a child is tough work. He must have patience. Long
patience. Nobody can hurry a slow-coming child.
The fire crackled and leaped higher, lighting the dirt-daubed cracks
of the walls, shining under the bed where it played over the freshly
sharpened point of a plow-share. A share ground and filed and put
under a bed is the best thing in the world to cut birth-pains, but this
one lagged with its work. Its clean edge glittered bright enough, yet
as time dragged on the pains lingered and the expected child tarried
with its coming.
The moon must be to blame. This new moon was right for planting
seed but wrong for birthing. Swift labor comes with a waning moon,
not a growing one.
The man heaved a deep sigh and looked out into the gathering
twilight. The slender young moon was dropping fast. This birthing
ought to get over. When the river’s tide turned, life could go out
mighty quickly. Ebb tide is a dangerous time for sick people.
Old Granny was too slow. Too easy-going. When this same girl was
born sixteen years ago, or was it seventeen, Granny had a long race
with Death and lost, yet here she was poking around with her roots
and teas, trifling away the time.
“Granny,” he stopped to clear the huskiness out of his throat, “better
make haste. De tide’ll soon turn. Ebb tide ain’ to be trusted, you
know.”
A wry smile shriveled Granny’s face. “You’s too short-patienced,
Breeze. Dis is a long-patienced task. It takes time. You better go cut
one more turn o’ fat lightwood an’ fetch em in. De fire is got to keep
up shine to-night.”
A pitiful moan from the corner stopped her talk, and, with an
echoing grunt, the man stepped down into the yard.
Granny’s shaking head bobbed faster as she watched him hurry to
the wood-pile and pick up the ax. Her trembling hands drew her
shawl closer around her bent shoulders. Lord, how time does change
people, she muttered to herself. Breeze was no mild fellow in his
youth. No. He was a wild scamp. But when his own girl got in
trouble, he r’ared around and wanted to kill the man that fooled her.
As if she wasn’t to blame too. A good thing the girl had sense
enough to keep her mouth shut. Nobody could make her say who
the father of her child was. She was a shut-mouthed creature. But
spoiled to death. Rotten spoiled. No wonder. Here she was,
disgracing her father’s house, after he had raised her nice as could
be, but he hadn’t a hard word for her. Not one. If he hadn’t humored
her all her life to everything heart could wish, she’d get to work and
finish this birthing before dark, instead of keeping people fretted
with worry-ation all day and now, more than likely, half the night.
But as long as her soft-hearted old father took her part, Granny was
helpless, and her scolding did no good.
The sturdy ax-cuts that rang out gave Granny an idea. That ax was
sharp and clean. The plow-share was hampered with rust. Why
wouldn’t the ax cut the birth-pains far better? Hurrying back to the
door she quavered out shrilly, “Bring me dat ax, Breeze! Hurry wid
em.”
He came with it, but halted at the door. He had ground that ax only
this morning. Its edge was awful keen. This was no time to be
risking anything. Granny had better be careful.
Granny stretched her old neck forward and her forehead furrowed
with a frown as she said sharply that as long as she’d been catching
children, if she couldn’t rule an ax, she’d better quit right now and
go home! She couldn’t stand for people to meddle with her when
she was doing her best. What did a man know about birthing? Put
the ax beside the share. Together they’d fetch the child like a lamb
a-jumping!
When steel jangled against steel under the bed, Granny ordered
sharply, “Now you git out de door till I call you. You ought to be glad
for de pain to suffer dis gal. I’m so shame of how e done, I can’ hold
my head up. I hope to Gawd you’ll lick em till e can’ stand up, soon
as e gits out dis bed. I never did hear no ’oman make sich a racket!
E ought not to much as crack e teeth! I wish e was my gal. I’d show
em how to be runnin’ round a-gittin’ chillen, stead o’ gittin’ a nice
settled man fo’ a husband.” Granny eyed the girl, then her unhappy
old father, severely, but her talk was to no purpose, for old Breeze’s
eyes were bloodshot with pity, his very soul distressed.
“You’s wrong, Granny. I used to t’ink like you, but I know better
now. If de gal’ll git thu dis safe, I wouldn’ hold no hard feelin’s
’gainst em. Never in dis world.” He leaned over the bed and gave the
girl’s shoulder a gentle pat, but Granny hurried him away. This was
no time for petting and being soft. Some hard work waited to be
done. The sooner the girl got at it, the sooner it would be finished.
“Quit you’ crazy talk an’ go on out de door! Don’ come back in dis
room, not less I call you.”
Granny spoke so sharply, he obeyed humbly, without another word.
The breath of the earth was thick in the air, a good clean smell that
went clear to the marrow of the man’s bones. God made the first
man out of dust, and all men go back to it in the end. The earth had
been sleeping, resting through the winter, but now, with the turn of
the year, it had roused, and it offered life to all that were fit and
strong. The corn crop, planted on the last young moon when the
dogwood blooms were the size of squirrel ears, was up to a stand
wherever the crows let it alone. Pesky devils! They watched every
blade that peeped through the ground and plucked it out with the
mother grain, cawing right in the face of the scare-crow that stood
up in the field to scare them, although its head, made out of a pot,
and its stuffed crocus sack body were ugly enough to scare a man.
To-morrow he’d hide and call them. He could fool them close enough
to shoot them. It was a pity to waste shells on birds unfit for man or
beast to eat and with too little grease on their bones to add a drop
to the soap pot, but there’d soon be another mouth to feed here.
To-morrow, he must plant the cotton while the young moon waxed
strong. There was much to do. He needed help. Maybe this child
being born would be a boy-child, a help for his old age. A sorrowful
woman will bear a boy-child, nine times out of ten, and God knows,
that girl had been sorrowful. When she helped him plant the corn,
she had dropped a tear in mighty nigh every hill along with the seed.
No wonder it grew fast.
Soon as the moon waned, the root crops, potatoes, pindars, chufas,
turnips, must be planted. Field plants have no sense. If you plant
crops that fruit above the ground on a waning moon, they get all
mixed up and bear nothing but heavy roots, and root crops planted
on a waxing moon will go all to rank tops no matter how you try to
stop them. Plants have to be helped along or they waste time and
labor, just the same as children you undertake to raise. That poor
little girl was started off wrong.
She was born on a moon so wrong that her mammy died in her
birthing. He had done his best to raise the little motherless creature
right, but he made a bad mistake when he let her go to Blue Brook
without him last summer. She went to meet his kin and to attend the
revival meeting. She was full of life and raven for pleasure. He
couldn’t refuse her when she asked to go. But he hadn’t made her
understand that those Blue Brook men were wicked devils. He knew
it. He had been one of them himself. Poor little girl, she knew it now!
Now when it was too late for anybody to help her out of her trouble.
Years ago, over thirty of them, he had left Blue Brook and come to
Sandy Island on account of a girl. She had named her child April
because it was born this very month. Afterward, she had married
and forgotten him. Now she was dead, but her child, April, was the
finest man on Blue Brook. Barely middle-aged, April was already the
plantation foreman, ruling the other farm-hands, telling them what
to do, what not to do, and raising the best crops in years. April had
made a name for himself. Everybody who came from Blue Brook had
something to say about him, either of his kindness or of his
meanness, his long patience or his quick temper, his open-
handedness or his close-fistedness. On Blue Brook, April was a man
among men.
He had seen him, a tall, lean, black, broad-shouldered fellow, so
much like himself that it was a wonder everybody didn’t know that
he was April’s daddy. But they didn’t. For April’s mother had been as
close-mouthed as the girl lying yonder on the bed. She never did tell
who fooled her and made her have sin. She died without telling.
Some day he’d like to tell April himself. But after all, what was the
use? April had taken the name of his mother’s lawful husband and
he loved the man who had raised him as well as an own father could
have done. Why upset them?
Granny’s shambling steps inside the cabin took his thoughts back to
the girl there. If the child was born on this rising tide, it would more
than likely be a boy-child. April would be a good name for him too.
April was a lucky month to be born in; it was a lucky name too. If
the child came a girl, Katy, the name of April’s mother, would be a
good name for it.
The spring air wafted clouds of fragrance from the underwoods
bordering the forest. Crab-apple thickets and white haw trees were
in full bloom. Yellow jasmine smothered whole tree-tops. Cherokee
roses starry with blossoms sprawled over rail fences and rotting
stumps, piercing through all other scents with their delicate perfume.
Sandy Island looked just so, smelled just so, on that April night
when he came here so many years ago. He thought then that he’d
go back some day and fetch Katy here to stay with him. But the
years had tricked him, fooled him. They had rolled by so fast he’d
lost track of them, and of Katy and her boy, April. Now, he was
almost an old man, and Katy was up yonder in Heaven. His own
lawful wife and his other boy, his yard son, were up there too. Had
Katy told them about April? Or would she stay shut-mouthed for ever
and ever?
As he wondered and pondered about the ways of people in Heaven,
the river, gorged by a high spring tide, slowly flooded the rice-fields
encircling the island. The black water lapped softly as it rippled over
the broken dikes and passed through the rotted flood-gates, hiding
the new green shoots of the marsh grass and uprooting the tall
faded blades, that had stood through the winter on the boggy mud
flats.
Frogs chanted. Marsh-hens chattered. Wood ducks piped and
splashed. Ganits flew in long lines toward the sunset, squawking
hoarsely and flapping the air with blue and white wings. Partridges
whistled. Doves mourned. Where were the groans from the bed in
the corner? Maybe all was over at last.
Granny stood in the door beckoning him to come. Her harshness
was all gone. She hobbled down the steps and came tottering to
meet him, then laying a bony hand on his shoulder she whispered
that the ax was too sharp. It had cut the pains off altogether. They
had ceased too soon and she couldn’t get them started again. She
had tried every tea she knew. Every root. Every ointment. Every
charm. She was at her row’s end. This moon was all wrong for
birthing. A young moon makes things go contrarywise. The child
should have waited a week longer to start coming. And two weeks
would have been still better.
The girl had dozed off in spite of everything. He must come and try
to rouse her up. Girls behave so crazy these days. They do like
nobody ever had birthed a child before them. She was fretted half to
death the way this girl carried on. He must come and make her
behave. If she had been a nice decent girl, all this would never have
been.
The girl’s eyes opened and looked up at him, and he leaned low over
the bed to hear her whispered words. She spoke with worn-out tired
breath, begging him to go and get help from somewhere. She hated
to die in sin, and leave him, but she couldn’t hold out much longer.
Death already had her feet cold as ice, it was creeping up to her
knees. Couldn’t he take the boat and go across the river to Blue
Brook? Wasn’t somebody there who could come to help her?
He studied. Certainly there was. Maum Hannah, his own first cousin,
had a string of charm beads their old grandmother had brought all
the way from Africa when she came on a slave ship. They and the
charm words that ruled them were left in Maum Hannah’s hands.
Ever since he was a boy, living on Blue Brook, he had heard people
say that those beads had never failed to help a woman birth a child
safely. No matter how it came, head foremost, foot foremost, or
hand foremost, it was all the same when those charm beads got to
working.
He’d go fetch Maum Hannah. She’d come. Old as she was, she’d risk
the booming river if her beads were needed to help a child come
into the world.
His boat was a dug-out and narrow for two people in a river running
backward in a flood-tide, but she’d come. He felt sure of it.
Barefooted, bareheaded, without a coat, he ran down the steep
slope to the black water’s edge, and soon the sharp bow of his boat,
driven by one short paddle, sliced through the current. Swift
wheeling circles of water marked every steady dip it made. Hugging
the willow banks, the boat hurried on, then cut straight across the
river. Thank God, the high-running tide made the rice-fields a clear
sheet of water. The boat could take a bee line to Blue Brook without
bothering about how the channel ran beyond the river. The landing
aimed for was on a deep, clear blue creek, which gave the plantation
its name, Blue Brook. The man’s knees were shaking as he stepped
out of the boat and dragged it higher up on the bank to wait until he
came back with Maum Hannah and the beads. Up the path he
trotted, to the Quarters where the long low houses made blurs of
darkness under tall black trees. The thick-leaved branches rose
against the sky, where the fires of sunset had lately died and the
moon had gone to its bed.
Rattly wagons hurried over the roads. Cattle bellowed. Children
shouted. Dogs barked. An ax rang sharply and a clear voice sent up
a song. “Bye an’ bye, when de mawnin’ comes!” How trustful it
sounded. He tried to hum the tune, but fear gnawed at his heart and
beat drums in his ears and throat and breast.
He was born and reared on Blue Brook. He knew every path and
road on it. Every field and ditch and thicket. Every moss-hung oak.
He had lived right yonder in the foreman’s house with his
grandfather, the plantation foreman. The foreman now was his son!
His blood kin. A proud fellow, that April! Lord, how April strutted and
gave himself airs!
The darkness melted everything into one. The whiteness of the Big
House was dim.
Fences, cabins, trees, earth were being swallowed up by the night.
Maum Hannah’s cabin was the last in those two long rows of houses,
and firelight shining out from her wide-open door sent a glow clear
across her yard. She was at home. It wouldn’t take long to get her
and the charm beads into the boat, then back across the river.
Black people were gathered in the doorways, most of them his kin
with whom he’d like to stop and talk, but there was no time for one
extra word, even with April, the foreman. Dogs ran up to him,
sniffed, recognized that he was of the same blood as their masters,
and went back to lie down.
 II
APRIL’S SON

Taking Maum Hannah’s three steps as one, he called out a breathless

greeting:
“How you do, Cun [Cousin] Hannah?”
She was stirring a pot on the hearth and the long spoon clattered
against the iron sides she dropped it. “Who dat call me?” She limped
backward a few halting paces and gazed at him with questioning
eyes.
“Dis is me, old man Breeze! Git you birthin’ beads quick an’ come go
home wid me!”
She stared at him vacantly. “Fo’ Gawd’s sake, who is you?” She
whispered sharply.
“You don’ know me? Is you gone blind, Hannah?”
Her arms dropped weakly as she peered at him, taking in his bare
feet, his patched clothes, his shirt, open at the neck, showing the
swell of his throat, the panting of his breast. With a sudden burst of
laughter she reached out and took his hand. “Lawd, Breeze, I
thought sho’ you was Grampa’s sperit come fo’ me! You scared me
well-nigh to death, son! Come on een an’ set down! Jedus, I’m glad
to see you! But you is de very spit o’ Grampa!”
“I can’ set, Hannah. I ain’ Grampa’s sperit, but I sho’ did come to git
you! My li’l’ gal is ’bout to die, Hannah. E can’ birth e chile to save
life, no matter how hard e try. Git Gramma’s birthin’ beads. You got
to go wid me. I couldn’ stan’ to le’ dat li’l’ gal die, an’ don’ do all I
can to save em. E’s so pitiful in e pain.”
Maum Hannah grunted. “Pain don’ kill a ’oman, son. It takes pain to
make em work steady till de task is done. I can’ stop no pain! No,
Jedus! De gal might be well by now anyhow.”
But he was firm. “Listen to me, Hannah! You got to go home wid me
to-night! Now! In a hurry! Make haste, too!”
“It’s a mighty black night since de moon is gone down.”
“Bein’ black don’ matter. I know de way. You come on, Hannah.”
“I declare to Gawd, my cripple knee is so painful I don’ know ef I
could git in a boat.”
“Den I’ll tote you, but you sho’ got to come.”
“I’m mighty ’f’aid o’ boats an’ water in de daytime much less at
night.” She leaned down to fix the sticks on the fire, but he caught
her roughly by the arm.
“Don’ you tarry, Hannah. You come on right now!”
“What kind o’ boat you got?”
“De boat’s narrow an’ de river’s high, but you got strong heart, enty?
You’ll be as safe wid me in dat boat as ef you was settin’ right here
by de fire in your rockin’ chair. I promised my li’l’ gal to fetch you an’
you’ birthin’ beads ef e would hold out till I git back. You better
come on! Gramma’ll hant you sho’ as you fail me to-night!”
Maum Hannah sighed deep. “I know I got to go, scared as I is. A
boat on a floodin’ river is a turrible t’ing, but I sho’ don’ want
Gramma’s sperit to git no grudge against me. Catchin’ chillen is
Jedus’ business anyhow, an’ de river belongs to Jedus, same as me
an’ you, I reckon. You wait till I git de beads out de trunk.
Sometimes I wish Gramma didn’ leave me dem beads. It’s de truth!”
She groped her way to the shed-room and fumbled in a trunk, then
called out that she needed a light. He broke a splinter off from a
stick of fat lightwood on the hearth and, lighting it, took it to her.
The small flame blazed up, sputtering and hissing, and spat black
drops of tar on the clean floor, on the quilt covered bed, on the wide
white apron she was tying around her waist. The shaking hand that
held it was to blame.
“How come you’ hand is a-tremblin’ so, Breeze?” she asked gently.
“You is pure shakin’ like a leaf. Trust in Gawd, son. You’ gal b’longs
to Him, not to you. Jedus ain’ gwine fail em now when e have need.”
The light wavered wildly as he raised an arm to draw his shirt-sleeve
across his eyes. Big teardrops rolled down his cheeks, and his face
twitched dumbly.
“You mus’ scuse me, Hannah. I’m so weakened down wid frettin’
until de water dreans out my eyes. My mind keeps a runnin’ back to
de time dis same li’l’ gal’s own mammy was taken dis same way.
When de tide turned, e went out wid em. Dat’s how come I’m
hurryin’ you so fas’. We mus’ git back whilst de tide is risin’.”
He stood, straight and tall, and strong for his years, but the troubled
look in his eyes made the old midwife wonder.
Her weight tilted the narrow boat so far to one side that some of the
black river water slid over its edge and ran down cold on her feet.
“Jedus hab mussy!” she groaned. “If dis boat do go down, I’ll sho’
git drowned to-night! I can’ swim, not a lick.”
“You set still, Hannah. Dis boat knows better’n to turn over to-night.
I got em trained. E’s got sense like people. E knows e’s got to take
me an’ you safe.”
“I’m mighty glad to hear dat, son, mighty glad.”
The boat was already gliding swiftly past the black willows on the
Blue Brook’s bank and around the bend where the thick trees made
shadows and long tresses of gray moss waved overhead. Soon
they’d reach the river. When a dark bird flew across the stream
Maum Hannah shivered and whispered, “Do, Jedus, hab mussy,” but
Breeze muttered, “Dat ain’ nuttin’ but a summer duck.”
The whole world lay still, wrapped by the night, quiet, save for the
swish of the water against the sides of the boat as the noiseless dips
of the steady-plying paddle thrust it on.
As they neared Sandy Island the shrill cry of an owl in the distance
caused the boat to falter in its forward going.
“Wha’ dat, Breeze?”
“Dat’s one o’ dem blue-dartin’ owls. Dat ain’ no sign o’ death.”
Ripples from the boat broke into glittering sparkles of light laid by
the stars on the water. The river murmured. Trees along the bank
were full of strange shadowy shapes. Whenever the lightest rustle of
wind drifted through the black branches, low smothered sobs fell
from them.
A tall sycamore with its white outstretched arms high up toward
heaven, reached toward the river waving, beckoning.
The night air was cool, but Maum Hannah took up the edge of her
apron and wiped off big drops of sweat that broke out cold as ice on
her forehead. “Do, Jedus, hab mussy!” she prayed.
The new moon had gone to bed. Now was the time evil spirits walk
and take people’s souls out of their bodies. Pines on the island made
soft moans. The darkness quivered with whispers. Only the firelight
shining out from the cabin on the hill made a clear red star to guide
them.
The narrow boat swerved and turned in-shore. A cypress knee,
hidden by the water, bumped hard against it, but didn’t stop its leap
toward the bank. Old Breeze eased himself past Maum Hannah, and
hopping out on the wet sand drew the boat up a little higher on the
hill.
“Git up, Hannah. Le’ me hold all two o’ you’ hands. Step slow. Hist
you’ foot. Don’ miss an’ trip. Now you’s on dry land.”
“T’ank Gawd! Praise Jedus’ name!”
“You got de beads, enty?”
“Sho’ I got ’em. Dem beads is all de luck I got in dis world. If dey
was to git lost, I’d be ruint fo’ true. Pure ruint!”
The steep climb cut her breath and stopped her flow of talk, but
Granny who had heard them coming, croaked out:
“Yunnuh better make haste. De chile is done come, but de gal won’
wake up an’ finish de job. Yunnuh come on.”
Maum Hannah lifted the long dark string of beads from around her
neck and handed them to old Breeze. “Run wid ’em, son. Put ’em
round de gal’s neck. Right on e naked skin. If I try to walk fast I
might fall down an’ broke my leg.”
Breath scarcely came and went through the girl’s parted lips, and
her teeth showed white. Were they clenched? Old Breeze pressed on
the round chin to see. Thank God the mouth could open!
Maum Hannah got inside the room at last. The charm words that
went with the beads would set things right. Death might as well go
on home! Let the girl rest. She was tired. Things could wait while
she had her nap out.
The big hickory armchair, drawn close to the fire, held a feather
pillow on its cowhide seat, and lying in the nest it made was a small
black human being. Granny laughed as she picked it up and put it
into Maum Hannah’s hands, saying:
“A boy-chile! An’ born wid a caul on e face!”
“Great Gawd, what is dis! You hear dis news, Breeze? Dis chile was
born wid a caul on e face!”
The man turned his troubled eyes away from the bed. “Wha’ you
say, Hannah?”
Laughing with pleasure Maum Hannah and Granny both told him
again. His grandson had been blessed with second-sight. He had
been born on the small of the moon and with a caul over his face.
He would have second sight. He’d always be able to see things that
stay hidden from other people. Hants and spirits and plat-eyes and
ghosts. Things to come and things long gone would all walk clear
before him. They couldn’t hide from this child’s eyes.
“Hotten another pot o’ water, Granny. Lemme warm em good, an’
make em cry.” Maum Hannah cradled the child tenderly in her hands,
then held him low so the firelight could shine in his face. With a
quick laugh she caught him by one foot and holding him upside
down smacked him sharply with three brisk slaps.
“Cry, suh!” she scolded. “Ketch air an’ holler! I hate to lick you so
hard soon as you git here, but I got to make you fret out loud.” A
poor weak bleating sounded and she handed the child to Granny.
“You fix em, whilst I finish up wid de mammy.”

“Wake up, gal!” she plead, shaking the girl’s limp arm. “Wake up!”
The rigid eyelids fluttered open and a faint smile played over the
girl’s face. She was too weary to draw her breath. The pain had
sapped all her strength, every bit.
Maum Hannah stooped and looked under the bed.
“Great Gawd,” she grunted. “Who dat put a’ ax under dis bed? No
wonder de pains quit altogedder. You ought to had chunked dese
irons out de door!” She did it forthwith herself.
“Now! All two is gone! Open you’ eyes, gal! Ketch a long breat. Dat’s
de way. Hol’ you’ two hands togedder. So. Blow in ’em! Hard. Hard
as you kin! Make a stiff win’ wid you’ mouth! Blow you’ fingers off.
Dat’s de way!”
Then something else went wrong. Where was a spider’s web?
Granny ought to have had one ready. Every good midwife should
find one as soon as she takes a case. Maum Hannah’s eyes were too
dim to see a web on the dark rafters overhead. Somebody must find
one and fetch it quickly. Life can leak out fast. Spider webs can dam
it up better than anything else. But, lord, they are hard to find at
night! Where was Breeze?
One was found at last. Then it took careful handling to get it well
covered with clean soot from the back of the chimney. Thank God
for those beads. The girl would have lost heart and given up except
for them and the charm words which Maum Hannah kept saying
over and over. With those beads working, things had to come right.
Had to. And they could not help working. Couldn’t, thank God.

The next morning’s sunshine showed plenty of gossamer webs spun

with shining wheels. Long threads of frail silk were strung across the
yard from bush to bush, traps set by the spiders for gnats and
mosquitoes, strong enough to hold a fly once in a while. But it takes
a house spider’s stout close-woven web to hold soot and do good.
For a house spider to make its home under your roof is good luck,
for sooner or later the cloth it weaves and spins will save
somebody’s life.
Old Breeze got up early and cooked the breakfast, fixed himself a bit
to eat and a swallow or two of sweetened water to drink and went
to the field to work, but the two old women sat by the fire and
nodded until the sun waxed warm and its yellow light glowed into
the room through the wide-open door. Then their tired old bodies
livened and their heads raised up and leaned together while
whispered talk crept back and forth between them. Granny held that
Breeze was a good kind man to take the girl’s trouble as he did.
Many a man would have put her out-of-doors. Girls are mighty wild
and careless these days. But their parents are to blame for it too.
Half the children born on Sandy Island were unfathered. It wasn’t
right. Yet how can you stop them? Maum Hannah sighed and shook
her head. It was a pity. And yet, after all, every child comes into the
world by the same old road.
A thousand husbands couldn’t make that journey one whit easier.
The preachers say God made the birthing pain tough when He got
vexed with Eve in the Garden of Eden. He wanted all women to
know how heavy His hand can be. Yet Eve had a lawful husband,
and did that help her any?
Granny blinked at the fire and studied a while, then with a sly look at
the bed she whispered that this same little boy-child was got right
yonder at Blue Brook during the protracted meeting last summer.
Her wizened face showed she knew more than she cared to tell. Not
that it was anything to her whose child it was.
She fidgeted with her tin cup and spoon and peeped at Maum
Hannah out of the corner of her eye, then asked with pretended
indifference:
“What’s de name o’ de gentleman what’s de foreman at Blue Brook
now?”
“E’s name April.”
“Enty?” Granny affected surprise. “Is e got a fambly?” she presently
ventured in spite of Maum Hannah’s shut-mouthed manner.
“Sho’, e’s got a fambly. E’s got a fine wife an’ a house full o’ chillen
too.”
“Well, I declare!” Granny mirated pleasantly. “Was any o’ dem born
wid a caul?”
“No, dey wasn’t. I never did hear o’ but one or two people bein’ born
wid a caul. Ol’ Uncle Isaac, yonder to Blue Brook is one, and e’s de
best conjure doctor I ever seen.”
“Who was de other one?” Granny inquired so mildly that Maum
Hannah stole a look at her hard, dried furrowed face. There was no
use to beat about the bush with Granny, so she answered:
“April, de foreman at Blue Brook, was de other one. Dese same ol’
hands o’ mine caught April when e come into dis world, just like
deys caught all o’ April’s chillen.”
“You mean, April’s yard chillen, enty?” Granny looked her straight in
the eyes like a hawk, but Maum Hannah met the look calmly,
without any sign of annoyance.
“I dunno what you’s aimin’ at, Granny. April’s a fine man. Blue Brook
never did have no better foreman. An’ his mammy, Katy, was one o’
de best women ever lived. April was she onliest child. April was born
dis same month. Dat’s how come Katy named him April. April’s a
lucky month an’ a lucky name, too. Wha’ you gwine name you li’l’
boy-chile, daughter?”
Granny looked toward the bed and listened for the answer.
“I dunno, ma’am,” the girl answered weakly, and Granny sweetened
her coffee with a few drops more of molasses. She stirred and
stirred until Maum Hannah suggested:
“April’s a fine name. Whyn’t you name em dat? When I git back to
Blue Brook, I’ll tell de foreman I named a li’l’ boy-chile at him. Dat
would please em too. E might would send em a present. April’s a
mighty free-handed man, an’ e sho’ thinks de world o’ me too.”
Granny waited to taste the sweetened coffee until she heard what
the girl said. The girl didn’t make any answer at first, but presently
she said with a sorrowful sigh, she’d have to think about the baby’s
name. She couldn’t decide in a hurry. Sometimes a wrong name will
even kill a baby. She must go slow and choose a name that was
certain to bring her baby health and luck.
She talked it over with her father and named the baby Breeze, for
him. No foreman in the world was a finer man, or a kinder, stronger,
wiser one. The breeze for which he was named could have been no
pleasanter, no sweeter, than the breeze that blew in from the river
that very morning.
The old man beamed with pleasure. He was glad to have the child
named for him. But since the month was April, why not name him
April Breeze? Then he’d have two good-luck names, and two would
be better than one.
“We could call em li’l’ Breeze, enty?” she asked with a catch in her
voice.
Welcome to our website – the ideal destination for book lovers and
knowledge seekers. With a mission to inspire endlessly, we offer a
vast collection of books, ranging from classic literary works to
specialized publications, self-development books, and children's
literature. Each book is a new journey of discovery, expanding
knowledge and enriching the soul of the reade

Our website is not just a platform for buying books, but a bridge
connecting readers to the timeless values of culture and wisdom. With
an elegant, user-friendly interface and an intelligent search system,
we are committed to providing a quick and convenient shopping
experience. Additionally, our special promotions and home delivery
services ensure that you save time and fully enjoy the joy of reading.

Let us accompany you on the journey of exploring knowledge and

personal growth!

ebookluna.com