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Uncertainity

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8 views2 pages

Uncertainity

Uploaded by

nazreenroja
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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STATISTICAL METHODS OF ERROR ANALYSIS

a. Probability of errors
By the nature of the random errors, the uncertainty associated with any measurement cannot be predetermined.
Only the probable error can be specified using statistical error analysis. The following are some of the statistical
methods of analyzing the errors.
b. Normal distribution of errors
The general laws governing normal distributions are stated as follows:
Positive and negative errors occur with equal probability and equal frequency.

Small errors are more common than large errors.


Large errors seldom occur, and there is a limit to the size of the greatest random error that will occur in any set
of observations.
Examples:

IQ and standardized test scores.

c. Histogram
When a number of multi sample observations are taken experimentally there is a scatter of the data about some
central value. One method of presenting test results is in the form of a
"Histogram". It is a tool to visually explore the data. It is an efficient graphical method for describing the
distribution of data. It is always a good practice to plot your data in a histogram after collecting the data. This
will give you an insight about the shape of the distribution. If the data is symmetrically distributed and most
results are located in the middle, we can assume that the data is normally distributed.

d. Normal or Gaussian curve of Errors


The normal or Gaussian curve of errors is the basis for the major part of study of random errors. The law of
probability states that the normal occurrence of deviations from average value of an infinite number of
measurements or observations can be expressed by:
y = ℎ2𝜋 exp (-ℎ2 𝑥2)
Where, x - Magnitude of deviation from mean
y - Number of readings at any deviation x (the probability of occurrence of deviation x)
h = a constant precision index
Normal or Gaussian curve is the graphical representation of the normal distribution. It is determined by the
mean and the standard deviation. It is a symmetric bellshaped curve. Its tails extends infinitely in both
directions. The wider the curve, the larger the standard deviation and the more the variation exists in the
process. The spread of the curve is equivalent to six times the standard deviation of the process.
The probabilities are represented by the area under the normal curve. The total area under the curve is equal to
100% (or 1.00). Since the normal curve is symmetrical, 50 percent of the data lie on each side of the curve.

f. Probable error
The most probable or best value of a Gaussian distribution is obtained by taking arithmetic mean of the various
values of the variate. The confidence in the best value (most probable value) is connected with the sharpness of
the distribution curve.

Uncertainity
Uncertainty is expressed as the range of variation of the indicated value from the true value.
Uncertainty is a reported value that characterizes the range of values within which the true value is asserted to
lie. An uncertainty estimate should address error from all possible effects (both systematic and random) and,
therefore, usually is the most appropriate means of expressing the accuracy of results. However, in many
measurement situations the systematic error is not addressed and only random error is included in the uncertainty
measurement. When only random error is included in the uncertainty estimate, it is a reflection of the precision
of the measurement.

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