A

REAL-TIME RESEARCH PROJECT

REPORT ON

“WEATHER FORECASTING’’

BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY

IN

COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

Submitted By

B.Krishna 22C71A0526

K.DurgaTeja 22C71A0504

P.Harika 22C71A0546

Under the guidance of

DR.S.SWATHI RAO

( ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR)

(ASST PROFESSOR)

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

ELLENKI COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

PATELGUDA,AMEENPUR,SANGAREDDY DISTRICT-502319 Affiliated to

JNTU,Hyderabad

i
 ELLENKI COLLAGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

patelguda(v),ameenpur mdl ,sangareddy dst,T.G.-502 319

AFFILIATED BY TO JNTUH HYDERABAD

DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

This is certify that dissertation entitled "weather forecasting "being submitted by

Bandaru krishna ,K. durga teja & P.Harika bearing Roll
no.22C71A0526,22C71A0504,22C71A0546 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of
the award of degree of BACHELOR OF TECNOLOGY in COMPUTER SCIENCE AND
ENGINEERING ,under JAWAHARLAL NEHRU TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERCITY ,is a record
of bonafide work carried out by them under by guidance and supervision . The results
embodied by in this real time research project report have not been submitted to any
other university or institute for the award of any degree .

Internal guide Head of the department

Dr S.SWATHI RAO Dr.SHAIK MAHABOOB SHARIEF

(Associate professor) (Associate professor)

External Examinar Principal

Dr.JOHN PAUL

(Professor)

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to thank Sri E. SADASHIVA REDDY, Chairman, Ellenki Group of Institutions for
providing us the conducive environment for carrying through my academic schedules and
Real time research Projects with ease.We express a wholehearted gratitude to Mr. M.
SAMBHA SHIVA REDDY, Director, Ellenki Group of Institutions and Director of Research and
Development Centre, Ellenki college Of Engineering and Technology, for providing us the
conducive environment for carrying through my academic schedules and real time research
projects with ease.We would like to thank our Principal Dr. P. JOHN PAUL, Ellenki College of
Engineering and Technology. His insight during the real time project and regular guidance
were valuable to me and also for providing right suggestions at every phase of the
development of my real time research project.We would like to thank our esteemed secretary
Sri E.Dayakar Reddy and Academic Director Sri E.Sai Kiran Reddy for their invaluable
supervision,support and guidancethroughoutourstudy in college.

We would like to thank our guide DR.S.SWATHI RAO Department of Computer Science And
Engineering. EllenkiCollege Of Engineering and Technology,for providing seamlesssupport
and knowledge over the past one year and also for providing right suggestions at every phase
of the development of my real time research Project.We would like to thank our Head of the
Department (Computer Science And Engineering), Dr. Shaik Mahaboob Sharief for providing
seamless support and knowledge over the past one year and also for providing right
suggestions at every phaseof the development of my real timeresearch Project.

Our sincere thanks to all our faculty members for their guidance and support throughout our
study at college and we also thank all our administrative staff, examination branch staff for
timely responding to our queries.We would like tothank all thestaff members of theResearch
and DevelopmentCentreand Departmentof ComputerScience And Engineering.

There is definitely a need to thank my friends and parents for their patience and support in
always leading tosuccessfulcompletion of the realtime project.

B.Krishna 22C71A0526

K.Durgateja 22C71A0504

P.Harika 22C71A0546

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTERS PAGE NO
ABSTRACT 1

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 2
1.1 INTRODUCTION 2
1.2 PROBLEM DEFINITION 2
1.3 SCOPE 3
1.4 PURPOSE 3
1.5 PROBLEM AND EXISTING 4
TECHNOLOGY
1.6 PROPOSED SYSTEM 4

CHAPTER 2: REQIUREMENTS & ANALYSIS 5

2.1 PLATFORM REQUIREMENTS 5
2.2 MODULE DESCRIPTION 6
2.3 DATA SET 9
CHAPTER 3: DESIGN & IMPLEMENTATION 12

3.1 ALGORITHMS 12
3.2 PSEUDO CODE 12
CHAPTER 4: SCREENSHOTS 19

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 21

CHAPTER 6: REFERENCES 22

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 ABSTRACT

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to

predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location.Ancient weather
forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also
termed pattern recognition. For example, it might be observed that if the
sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair
weather.However, not all of these predictions prove reliable.

Here this system will predict weather based on parameters such as

temperature, humidity and wind. User will enter current temperature;
humidity and wind, System will take this parameter and will predict
weather(rainfall in inches) from previous data in database(data set). The role
of the admin is to add previous weather data in database, so that system will
calculate weather(estimated rainfall in inches) based on these data. Weather
forecasting system takes parameters such as temperature, humidity, and
wind and will forecast weather based on previous record therefore this
prediction will prove reliable. This system can be used in Air Traffic, Marine,
Agriculture, Forestry, Military, and Navy etc.

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 1.INTRODUCTION

• Data Warehousing

Data Warehouse is electronic storage of a large amount of

information by a business which is designed for query and analysis
instead of transaction processing. It is a process of transforming data
into information and making it available to users for analysis.

• Data Mining

Data mining is looking for hidden, valid, and potentially useful patterns
in huge data sets. Data Mining is all about discovering unsuspected/
previously unknown relationships amongst the data.It is a multi-disciplinary
skill that uses machine learning, statistics, AI and database technology.

1.1. Introduction

Rainfall Prediction is the application of science and technology to predict the

amount of rainfall over a region. It is important to exactly determine the
rainfall for effective use of water resources, crop productivity and pre -
planning of water structures.

In this project, we used Linear Regression to predict the amount of rainfall.

Linear Regression tells us how many inches of rainfall we can expect.

1.2 Problem Definition

It is important to exactly determine the rainfall for effective use of water

resources, crop productivity and pre- planning of water structures.

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1.3 Scope
It tells us how many inches of rainfall we can expect.
1.4 Purpose
There are several reasons why weather forecasts are important. They would
certainly be missed if they were not there. It is a product of science that
impacts the lives of many people. The following is a list of various reasons
why weather forecasts are important:

1. Helps people prepare for how to dress (i.e. warm weather, cold weather,
windy weather, rainy weather)
2. Helps businesses and people plan for power production and how much
power to use (i.e. power companies, where to set thermostat)
3. Helps people prepare if they need to take extra gear to prepare for the
weather (i.e. umbrella, rain coat, sun screen)
4. Helps people plan outdoor activities (i.e. to see if rain/storms/cold
weather will impact outdoor event)
5. Helps curious people to know what sort of weather can be expected (i.e. a
snow on the way, severe storms)
6. Helps businesses plan for transportation hazards that can result from the
weather (i.e. fog, snow, ice, storms, clouds as it relates to driving and flying
for example)
7. Helps people with health related issues to plan the day (i.e. allergies,
asthma, heat stress)
8. Helps businesses and people plan for severe weather and other weather
hazards (lightning, hail, tornadoes, hurricanes, ice storms)

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9. Helps farmers and gardeners plan for crop irrigation and protection
(irrigation scheduling, freeze protection)

1.5 Problem and Existing Technology

The traditional forecast process employed by most NMHSs involves

forecasters producing text-based, sensible, weather-element forecast
products (e.g. maximum/minimum temperature, cloud cover) using
numerical weather prediction (NWP) output as guidance. The process is
typically schedule-driven, product-oriented and labour-intensive. Over the last
decade, technological advances and scientific breakthroughs have allowed
NMHSs’ hydrometeorological forecasts and warnings to become much more
specific and accurate.

As computer technology and high-speed dissemination systems evolved (e.g.

Internet), National Weather Service (NWS) customers/partners were
demanding detailed forecasts in gridded, digital and graphic formats.
Traditional NWS text forecast products limit the amount of additional
information that can be conveyed to the user community. The concept of
digital database forecasting provides the capability to meet
customer/partner demands for more accurate, detailed hydrometeorological
forecasts. Digital database forecasting also offers one of the most exciting
opportunities to integrate PWS forecast dissemination and service delivery,
which most effectively serves the user community.

1.6 Proposed System

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 User will enter current temperature; humidity and wind, System will take this
parameter and will predict weather from previous data in database. The role
of the admin is to add previous weather data in database, so that system will
calculate weather based on these data. Weather forecasting system takes
parameters such as temperature, humidity, and wind and will forecast
weather based on previous record therefore this prediction will prove reliable.

2.REQUIREMENTS

2.1. Platform Requirements

Hardwar
Specification
e/Softw Hardware / Software element
/version
are

Hardwar Processor i3
e
RAM 2GB

Hard Disk 250GB

Softwar OS Windows,Linux.
e
Python IDE Jupyter
NoteBook.
Microsoft Azure
Python 3.

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2.2. Modules Description

In this project we have Two modules

1) Data gathering and pre - processing.

2) Applying Algorithm for prediction .

Explanation:
1) In this module we first gather the data(dataset) for our prediction
model.Data comes in all forms, most of it being very messy and unstructured.
They rarely come ready to use. Datasets, large and small, come with a
variety of issues- invalid fields, missing and additional values, and values
that are in forms different from the one we require. In order to bring it to
workable or structured form, we need to “clean” our data, and make it ready
to use. Some common cleaning includes parsing, converting to one-hot,
removing unnecessary data, etc.

In our case, our data has some days where some factors weren’t recorded.
And the rainfall in cm was marked as T if there was trace precipitation. Our
algorithm requires numbers, so we can’t work with alphabets popping up in
our data. so we need to clean the data before applying it on our model.

2)Once the data is cleaned, In this module that cleaned data can be used as
an input to our Linear regression model. Linear regression is a linear
approach to form a relationship between a dependent variable and many
independent explanatory variables. This is done by plotting a line that fits our
scatter plot the best, ie, with the least errors. This gives value predictions, ie,
how much, by substituting the independent values in the line equation.

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We will use Scikit-learn’s linear regression model to train our dataset. Once
the model is trained, we can give our own inputs for the various columns
such as temperature, dew point, pressure, etc. to predict the weather based
on these attributes.

Module Outcomes:
1) By the end of the first module the fully cleaned and useful data is available
for the apply the algorithm for the prediction.
1) By the end of the second module the actual prediction will be happen the
outcome is the amount of rainfall in inches based upon the users input.

Algorithm:
Linear Regression is a machine learning algorithm based on supervised
learning. It performs a regression task. Regression models a target
prediction value based on independent variables. It is mostly used for finding
out the relationship between variables and forecasting. Different regression
models differ based on – the kind of relationship between dependent and
independent variables, they are consideringand the number of independent
variables being used.

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Linear regression performs the task to predict a dependent variable value (y)
based on a given independent variable (x). So, this regression technique
finds out a linear relationship between x (input) and y(output). Hence, the
name is Linear Regression.
In the figure above, X (input) is the work experience and Y (output) is the
salary of a person. The regression line is the best fit line for our model.

Hypothesis function for Linear Regression :

y=mx+c

Where

y is the response variable.

x is the predictor variable.

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2.3. Data Set

The dataset is a public weather dataset from Austin, Texas available on

Kaggle.

austin_weather.csv

Columns:

Date-

The date of the collection (YYYY-MM-DD)

TempHighF-

High temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit

TempAvgF-

Average temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit

TempLowF-

Low temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit

DewPointHighF-

High dew point, in degrees Fahrenheit

DewPointAvgF-

Average dew point, in degrees Fahrenheit

DewPointLowF-

Low dew point, in degrees Fahrenheit

HumidityHighPercent-

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High humidity, as a percentage

HumidityAvgPercent-

Average humidity, as a percentage

HumidityLowPercent-

Low humidity, as a percentage

SeaLevelPressureHighInches-

High sea level pressure, in inches of mercury

SeaLevelPressureAvgInches-

Average sea level pressure, in inches of mercury

SeaLevelPressureLowInches-

Low sea level pressure, in inches of mercury

VisibilityHighMiles-

High visibility, in miles

VisibilityAvgMiles-

Average visibility, in miles

VisibilityLowMiles-

Low visibility, in miles

WindHighMPH-

High wind speed, in miles per hour

WindAvgMPH-

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Average wind speed, in miles per hour

WindGustMPH-

Highest wind speed gust, in miles per hour

PrecipitationSumInches-

Total precipitation, in inches ('T' if trace)

Events-

Adverse weather events (' ' if None)

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 3.DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION

3.1 Algorithms:
Linear Regression:
Module-1 :Data gathering and pre - processing.

Module-2: Applying Algorithm for prediction .

3.2Source Code
# importing libraries
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# read the data in a pandas dataframe

data =
pd.read_csv("C:/Users/TEMP.SANDEEP/Desktop/austin_weather.csv")

#seeing head values

data.head(5)
#seeing shape of the dataset
data.shape

#filling missing NULL values by column means

data.fillna(data.mean())

# drop or delete the unnecessary columns in the data.

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data = data.drop(['Events', 'Date', 'SeaLevelPressureHighInches',
'SeaLevelPressureLowInches'], axis = 1)

# some values have 'T' which denotes trace rainfall

# we need to replace all occurrences of T with 0
# so that we can use the data in our model
data = data.replace('T', 0.0)

# the data also contains '-' which indicates no

# or NIL. This means that data is not available
# we need to replace these values as well.
data = data.replace('-', 0.0)

# dataframe created with

# the above data array
df = pd.DataFrame(data)

# create histogram for numeric data

df.hist()

# show plot
plt.show()
#basic static

# save the data in a csv file

data.to_csv('C:/Users/TEMP.SANDEEP/Desktop/austin_final_final.csv')

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# importing libraries
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import sklearn as sk
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# read the cleaned data

data =
pd.read_csv("C:/Users/TEMP.SANDEEP/Desktop/austin_final_final.csv")

# the features or the 'x' values of the data

# these columns are used to train the model
# the last column, i.e, precipitation column
# will serve as the label
X = data.drop(['PrecipitationSumInches'], axis = 1)

# the output or the label.

Y = data['PrecipitationSumInches']
# reshaping it into a 2-D vector
Y = Y.values.reshape(-1, 1)

# consider a random day in the dataset

# we shall plot a graph and observe this
# day

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day_index = 798
days = [i for i in range(Y.size)]

# initialize a linear regression classifier

clf = LinearRegression()
# train the classifier with our
# input data.
clf.fit(X, Y)

# give a sample input to test our model

# this is a 2-D vector that contains values
# for each column in the dataset.
inp = np.array([[74], [60], [45], [67], [49], [43], [33], [45],
[57], [29.68], [10], [7], [2], [0], [20], [4], [31]])
inp = inp.reshape(1, -1)

# print the output.

print('The precipitation in inches for the input is:', clf.predict(inp))

# plot a graph of the precipitation levels

# versus the total number of days.
# one day, which is in red, is
# tracked here. It has a precipitation
# of approx. 2 inches.
print("the precipitation trend graph: ")
plt.scatter(days, Y, color = 'g')

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plt.scatter(days[day_index], Y[day_index], color ='r')
plt.title("Precipitation level")
plt.xlabel("Days")
plt.ylabel("Precipitation in inches")

plt.show()
x_vis = X.filter(['TempAvgF', 'DewPointAvgF', 'HumidityAvgPercent',
'SeaLevelPressureAvgInches', 'VisibilityAvgMiles',
'WindAvgMPH'], axis = 1)

# plot a graph with a few features (x values)

# against the precipitation or rainfall to observe
# the trends

print("Precipitation vs selected attributes graph: ")

for i in range(x_vis.columns.size):
plt.subplot(3, 2, i + 1)
plt.scatter(days, x_vis[x_vis.columns.values[i][:100]],
color = 'g')

plt.scatter(days[day_index],
x_vis[x_vis.columns.values[i]][day_index],
color ='r')

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 plt.title(x_vis.columns.values[i])

plt.show()

OUTPUT:

The precipitation in inches for the input is: [[1.33868402]]

Graphs:
1) Histogram for Temp

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2)The precipitation trend graph:

A day (in red) having precipitation of about 2 inches is tracked across

multiple parameters (the same day is tracker across multiple features such
as temperature, pressure, etc). The x-axis denotes the days and the y-axis
denotes the magnitude of the feature such as temperature, pressure, etc.

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From the graph, it can be observed that rainfall can be expected to be high
when the temperature is high and humidity is high.

4. SCREENSHOTS

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Page 20
5.CONCLUSION

We successfully predicted the rainfall using the linear regression but here
this is not very accurate only some times any way it depends upon the
climate changes to season to season.Here we are taking only summer
season weather data set it only useful to predict rainfall in summer season.
weather and climate represent different aspects of Earth's atmospheric
conditions. Weather refers to short-term, immediate atmospheric phenomena,
whileclimaterepresentslong-termaverageweather

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6.REFERENCES

Textbooks:-

1. Data Mining: The Textbook 2015 Edition, Kindle Editionby Charu C.

Aggarwal .

2. Data Mining: Concepts and TechniquesBy Jiawei Han, Jian Pei,

Micheline Kamber.

Weblinks:-

1) https://towardsdatascience.com/introduction-to-machine-learning-alg
orithms-linear-regression-14c4e325882a

2) https://www.kaggle.com/grubenm/austin-weather

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